1 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 People use the internet for various reasons. 2 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 It turns out that one of the most popular categories of website 3 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is something that people typically consume in private. 4 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 It involves curiosity, 5 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 non-insignificant level of self-indulgence, 6 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and centered around recording the reproductive activities 7 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 of other people. 8 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Of course I'm talking about genealogy. 9 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 (Laughter) 10 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 The study of family history. 11 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 When it comes to detailing family history, 12 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 in every family we have this person that is obsessed with genealogy. 13 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Let's call him Uncle Bernie. 14 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Uncle Bernie is exactly the last person you want to sit next to 15 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 in Thanksgiving dinner 16 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 because he will bore you to death with peculiar details 17 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 about some ancient relatives. 18 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 But as you know, 19 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 there is a scientific side for everything, 20 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and we found that Uncle Bernie's stories 21 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 have immense potential for biomedical research. 22 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 We let Uncle Bernie and his fellow genealogists 23 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 document their family trees through a genealogy website called geni.com. 24 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 When users upload their trees to the website, 25 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 it scans their relatives 26 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and if it finds matches to existing trees, 27 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 it emerges the existing and the new tree together. 28 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 The result is that large family trees are created beyond the individual level 29 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 of each genealogist. 30 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Now, by repeating this process with millions of people all over the world, 31 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 we can crowdsource the construction of a family tree of all humankind. 32 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Using this website, 33 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 we were able to connect 125 million people 34 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 into a single family tree. 35 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I cannot draw the tree on the screens over here 36 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 because they have less pixels 37 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 than the number of people in this tree, 38 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but here is an example of a subset of 6,000 individuals. 39 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Each green node is a person. 40 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 The red nodes represent marriages, 41 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and the connections represent parenthood. 42 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 In the middle of this tree, you see the ancestors, 43 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and as we go to the periphery, you see the descendants, 44 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and this tree has seven generations approximately. 45 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Now, this is what happens when we increase the number of individuals 46 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to 70,000 people, 47 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 still a tiny subset of all the data that we have. 48 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Despite that, you can already see the formation of gigantic family trees 49 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 with very many distant relatives. 50 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Thanks to the hard work of our genealogists, 51 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 we can go back in time hundreds of years ago. 52 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 For example, here is Alexander Hamilton 53 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that was born in 1755. 54 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Alexander was the first US Secretary of the Treasury, 55 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but mostly known today due to a popular Broadway musical. 56 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 We found that Alexander has deeper connections in the showbiz industry. 57 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 In fact, he's a blood relative of Kevin Bacon. 58 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 (Laughter) 59 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Both of them are descendants of a lady from Scotland 60 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 who lived in the 13th century. 61 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 So you can say that Alexander Hamilton 62 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is 35 degrees of Kevin Bacon genealogy. 63 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 (Laughter) 64 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And our tree has millions of stories like that. 65 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 We invested significant effort to validate the quality of our data. 66 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Using DNA, we found that .3 percent of the mother-child connections in our data 67 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 are wrong, 68 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 which could match the adoption rate in the US pre-Second World War. 69 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 For the father's side, 70 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 the news are not as good. 71 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 1.9 percent of the father-child connections in our data are wrong. 72 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And I see some people smirk over here. 73 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 It is what you think. 74 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 There are many milkmen out there. 75 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 (Laughter) 76 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 However, this 1.9 percent error rate in patrilineal connections 77 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is not unique to our data. 78 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Previous studies found a similar error rate 79 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 using clinical-grade pedigrees. 80 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 So the quality of our data is good, 81 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and that should not be a surprise. 82 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Our genealogists have a profound, vested interest in correctly documenting 83 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 the family history. 84 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 We can leverage this data to learn quantitative information about humanity, 85 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 for example questions about demography. 86 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Here is a look of all our profiles on the map of the world. 87 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Each pixel is a person that lived at some point, 88 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and since we have so much data, 89 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 you can see the contours of many countries, 90 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 especially in the Western world. 91 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 In this clip, we stratified the map that I've showed you 92 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 basically of birth of individuals 93 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 from 1400 to 1900 94 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and we compared it to known migration events. 95 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 The clip is going to show you that the deepest lineages in our data 96 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 go all the way back to the UK, 97 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 where they had better record-keeping, 98 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and then they spread along the routes of Western colonialism. 99 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Let's watch this. 100 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 (Music) 101 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I love this movie. 102 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Now, since these migrations events are giving the context of families, 103 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 we can ask questions 104 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 such as what is the typical distance between the birth locations 105 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 of husbands and wives? 106 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 This distance plays a pivotal role in demography, 107 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 because the patterns on which people migrate to form families 108 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 determine how genes spread in geographical areas. 109 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 We analyzed this distance using our data, 110 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and we found that in the old days, 111 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 people had it easy. 112 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 They just married someone in the village nearby. 113 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 But the Industrial Revolution really complicated our love life, 114 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and today with affordable flights and online social media, 115 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 people typically migrate more than 100 kilometers 116 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 from their place of birth to find their soulmate. 117 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 So now you might ask, OK, 118 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but who does the hard work of migrating from places to places 119 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to form families? 120 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Are these the males or the females? 121 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 We used our data to address this question, 122 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and at least in the last 300 years, 123 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 we found that the ladies 124 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 do the hard work of migrating from places to places to form families. 125 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Now these results are statistically significant, 126 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 so you can take it as scientific fact that males are lazy. 127 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 (Laughter) 128 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 We can move from questions about demography 129 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and ask questions about human health. 130 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 For example, we can ask to what extent genetic variations account for differences 131 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 in lifespan between individuals. 132 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Previous studies analyzed the correlation of longevity 133 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 between twins to address this question. 134 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 They estimated that the genetic variations account for about a quarter 135 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 of the differences in lifespan between individuals. 136 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 But twins can be correlated due to so many reasons, 137 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 including various environmental effects 138 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 or a shared household. 139 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Large family trees give us the opportunity to analyze both close relatives, 140 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 such as twins, all the way to distant relatives, even fourth cousins. 141 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 This way we can build robust models 142 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that can tease apart the contribution of genetic variations 143 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 from environmental factors. 144 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 We conducted this analysis using our data, 145 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and we found that genetic variations explain only 15 percent 146 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 of the differences in lifespan between individuals. 147 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 That is five years, on average. 148 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 So genes matter less than what we thought before to lifespan, 149 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and I find it as great news, 150 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 because it means that our actions can matter more. 151 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Smoking, for example, determines 10 years of our life expectancy, 152 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 twice as much as what genetics determines. 153 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 We can even have more surprising findings 154 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 as we move from family trees 155 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and we let our genealogists 156 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to document and crowdsource DNA information. 157 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And the results can be amazing. 158 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 It might be hard to imagine, but Uncle Bernie and his friends 159 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 can create a DNA forensic capabilities 160 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that even exceed what the FBI currently has. 161 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 When you place the DNA on a large family tree, 162 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 you effectively create a beacon 163 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that illuminates the hundreds of distant relatives 164 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that are connected to the person that originated the DNA. 165 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 By placing multiple beacons on a large family tree, 166 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 you can now triangulate the DNA of an unknown person, 167 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 the same way that the GPS system 168 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 uses multiple satellites to find a location. 169 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 The prime example of the power of this technique 170 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is capturing the Golden State Killer, 171 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 one of the most notorious criminals in the history of the US. 172 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 The FBI has been searching For this person for over 40 years. 173 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 They had his DNA, 174 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but he never showed up in any police database. 175 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 About a year ago, the FBI consulted a genetic genealogist, 176 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and she suggested that they submit his DNA to a genealogy service 177 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that can locate distant relatives. 178 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 They did that, 179 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and they found a third cousin of the Golden State Killer. 180 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 They built a large family tree, 181 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 scanned the different branches of that tree 182 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 until they found a profile that exactly matched 183 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 what they knew about the Golden State Killer. 184 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 They obtained DNA from this person and found a perfect match 185 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to the DNA they had in hand. 186 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 They arrested him and brought him to justice 187 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 after all these years. 188 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Since then, genetic genealogists 189 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 have started working with local US law enforcement agencies 190 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to use this technique in order to capture criminals, 191 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and only in the past six months, 192 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 they were able to solve over 20 cold cases with this technique. 193 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 The French Nobel Laureate André Gide once wrote, "Families, I hate you!" 194 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 (Laughter) 195 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And I think most of us can relate to his words. 196 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Why dig around in the past doing family history 197 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 when the future is so bright and open? 198 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 But luckily, we have people like Uncle Bernie 199 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and his fellow genealogists who love families 200 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and tirelessly study them. 201 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 These are not amateurs with a self-serving hobby, 202 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 these are citizen scientists with a deep passion to tell us who we are, 203 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and they know that the past can hold a key to the future. 204 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Thank you very much. 205 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 (Applause)