WEBVTT 00:00:03.614 --> 00:00:06.280 the world we live in is a wash with data 00:00:06.388 --> 00:00:09.857 that comes pouring in from everywhere around us 00:00:10.349 --> 00:00:14.330 on is own this data is just noise and confusion 00:00:14.515 --> 00:00:16.393 to make sense of data 00:00:16.393 --> 00:00:18.250 to find the meaning in this 00:00:18.250 --> 00:00:22.650 we need a powerful brunch of science STATISTICS 00:00:22.650 --> 00:00:27.542 believe me thats nothing boring about statistics , especially not today when we 00:00:27.542 --> 00:00:28.442 can make the data 00:00:28.442 --> 00:00:30.423 seen 00:00:30.423 --> 00:00:32.575 with statistics we can really make sense of the world 00:00:32.575 --> 00:00:35.091 and there is more 00:00:35.091 --> 00:00:41.170 with statistics that data deluge as it been called , is leading us to an ever 00:00:41.170 --> 00:00:42.730 greater understanding 00:00:42.730 --> 00:00:46.286 of life on Earth and the Universe beyond 00:00:46.348 --> 00:00:51.540 and thanks to the incredible power of today's computers it may 00:00:51.540 --> 00:00:57.760 fundamentally transformed the process of scientific discovery 00:00:57.760 --> 00:00:59.070 I kid you not 00:00:59.070 --> 00:01:06.070 statistics is now the sexiest subject around 00:01:12.891 --> 00:01:15.483 Sztokholm, Szwecja 00:01:22.698 --> 00:01:25.860 did you know that there is a one million boats in Sweden 00:01:25.860 --> 00:01:28.269 thats one boat per nine people 00:01:28.269 --> 00:01:31.614 is the highest number of boats per person in Europe 00:01:31.614 --> 00:01:34.053 Sweden also has .. the most McDonalds per person in Europe 00:01:34.274 --> 00:01:35.615 ..... the most computers per person in Europe 00:01:36.558 --> 00:01:38.597 .. the most nuclear reactor per person in Europe 00:01:41.770 --> 00:01:45.870 being a statistician you dont like telling your profession at dinner parties 00:01:45.870 --> 00:01:46.759 but really 00:01:46.759 --> 00:01:51.098 statistician shouldn't be shy becouse everyone wants to understand whats going on 00:01:51.467 --> 00:01:53.030 and statystics 00:01:53.030 --> 00:01:58.846 gives us a perspective on the world we live in that we cant get in any other way 00:01:59.092 --> 00:02:03.639 the average person spends 24 years of their life asleep 00:02:04.008 --> 00:02:06.691 statistics tells us whether the things we think 00:02:06.691 --> 00:02:09.168 and believe are actually true 00:02:09.264 --> 00:02:13.949 most men think theyre better drivers than women 00:02:14.179 --> 00:02:19.495 but they have almost double the fatal accidens per mile driven 00:02:19.618 --> 00:02:22.719 a statystics are far more useful 00:02:22.719 --> 00:02:25.529 than we usually like to admit 00:02:25.529 --> 00:02:29.499 in the last recession I was listen this famous calling to a talk-radiostation 00:02:29.945 --> 00:02:31.099 the man complain 00:02:31.099 --> 00:02:35.836 in times like this when unemployment raised up to a thirteen percent and income 00:02:35.836 --> 00:02:39.003 is fallen by five percent and suicide raised up climbing 00:02:39.234 --> 00:02:43.533 I get so angry that the government is wasting money on things like 00:02:43.533 --> 00:02:45.296 connection of statystics 00:02:48.273 --> 00:02:50.680 Im not officially a statystician 00:02:50.680 --> 00:02:56.172 strictly speaking my field is global health 00:02:58.061 --> 00:03:03.498 but i got really obsessed with stats when I realized how much people in 00:03:03.498 --> 00:03:07.439 Sweden just don't know about the rest of the world 00:03:07.701 --> 00:03:12.069 I started in our medical university Karolinska Instytut an undergraduate 00:03:12.069 --> 00:03:13.979 course called global health 00:03:13.979 --> 00:03:17.072 these students coming to our section at the highest grade you can get in the 00:03:17.072 --> 00:03:20.333 swedish college system so i thought maybe they know everything i'm going to 00:03:20.333 --> 00:03:21.639 teach them about 00:03:21.639 --> 00:03:23.419 so I did the pretest 00:03:23.419 --> 00:03:25.677 when they came and one of the question 00:03:25.677 --> 00:03:29.419 from which I learned a lot was this one: which country has the highest child 00:03:29.419 --> 00:03:32.749 mortality of this five pairs 00:03:32.749 --> 00:03:36.759 I wont put you at the test here but is Turkey which is highest, there Poland 00:03:36.759 --> 00:03:39.420 Russia,Pakistan and South Africa 00:03:40.235 --> 00:03:41.980 and these were the results of the swedish students 00:03:41.980 --> 00:03:44.879 one point eight right answer of the five possible 00:03:44.879 --> 00:03:48.250 that means that there was a place for a professor of international health 00:03:48.250 --> 00:03:50.349 and for my course 00:03:50.349 --> 00:03:55.339 but one late night when I was compiling the report I really realised 00:03:55.339 --> 00:04:01.199 my discovery , I have shown that swedish top students know statisticaly 00:04:01.199 --> 00:04:06.469 significantly less about the world than the chimpanzees 00:04:06.469 --> 00:04:09.069 because the chimpanzee would score 00:04:09.069 --> 00:04:12.480 half right, if I gave them two bananas which Sri Lanka or Turkey 00:04:12.480 --> 00:04:14.290 would be right half of the cases 00:04:14.290 --> 00:04:18.100 but the students are not that. I did also an unethical study of the 00:04:18.100 --> 00:04:20.630 professors of the Karolinska Instytut 00:04:20.630 --> 00:04:24.270 that hands of Nobel Prize in medicine and they are on par with the 00:04:24.270 --> 00:04:27.029 chimpanzee there 00:04:28.614 --> 00:04:32.890 today there's more information accessible than ever before 00:04:32.890 --> 00:04:37.800 and I work with my team at the Gapminder Fundation using new tools 00:04:37.800 --> 00:04:41.949 that help everyone make sense of the changing world 00:04:41.949 --> 00:04:46.529 we draw all the masses of data thats now freely available from international 00:04:46.529 --> 00:04:50.470 institutions like the UN and the World Bank 00:04:50.470 --> 00:04:54.174 and its become my mission to share the insights from this data 00:04:54.297 --> 00:04:55.874 with anyone who listen 00:04:55.874 --> 00:04:57.054 and to reveal 00:04:57.089 --> 00:05:00.922 how statistics is nothing to be frighten 00:05:02.753 --> 00:05:05.159 Im going to provide you a view 00:05:05.159 --> 00:05:07.449 of the global health situation 00:05:07.449 --> 00:05:09.409 across mankind 00:05:09.409 --> 00:05:11.349 and Im going to do that 00:05:11.349 --> 00:05:14.527 in a hopefully enjoyable way so relax 00:05:14.527 --> 00:05:17.210 so we did this software which displaced it like this 00:05:17.210 --> 00:05:19.168 every bubble here is a country 00:05:19.168 --> 00:05:20.633 this is China 00:05:20.633 --> 00:05:21.795 this is India 00:05:21.795 --> 00:05:23.819 the size of the bubble is the population and 00:05:23.819 --> 00:05:26.150 I done the stage of race here 00:05:26.150 --> 00:05:28.530 between the sort of yellowish Ford here 00:05:28.530 --> 00:05:30.712 and the red Toyota down there 00:05:30.712 --> 00:05:31.990 and the brownish Volvo 00:05:33.098 --> 00:05:38.110 the Toyota has a very bad start down here, and US Ford is going offroad 00:05:38.110 --> 00:05:39.319 back, and the Volvo is doing quite fine 00:05:39.319 --> 00:05:42.430 this is the war, the Toyota got off tracking out to our best country 00:05:42.430 --> 00:05:43.981 coming on to a healthier side of Sweden 00:05:43.981 --> 00:05:47.900 thats it why I sold the Volvo and both the Toyota 00:05:49.870 --> 00:05:51.820 may have been drinking forward when china phil donahue 00:05:51.820 --> 00:05:53.119 planning by multiple 00:05:53.119 --> 00:05:56.949 diners covered in this endeavor more student central planning and they were 00:05:56.949 --> 00:06:00.059 dennis one morning it would be looking at 00:06:00.059 --> 00:06:02.289 united states 00:06:02.289 --> 00:06:04.340 or they broke my frame 00:06:04.340 --> 00:06:08.990 washington blvd phil rachel identified on the back of the fda_ relating and 00:06:08.990 --> 00:06:15.990 it makes life interesting 00:06:20.789 --> 00:06:23.329 when we come to the usa_ 00:06:23.329 --> 00:06:24.639 leaders in 00:06:24.639 --> 00:06:28.889 cars 00:06:28.889 --> 00:06:32.110 there are many here who shared my vision 00:06:32.110 --> 00:06:34.319 public dave accessible in use 00:06:34.319 --> 00:06:36.449 part everyone 00:06:36.449 --> 00:06:38.550 the city of san francisco 00:06:38.550 --> 00:06:39.650 is in the league 00:06:39.650 --> 00:06:43.269 opening upbeat state government every 00:06:43.269 --> 00:06:48.639 even the police department is releasing olympics crime reports 00:06:48.639 --> 00:06:50.600 is sufficient crime 00:06:50.600 --> 00:06:56.330 turned into a wonderfully attractive man by two of the city's computer whizzes 00:06:56.330 --> 00:07:03.330 it's communities that these pics connection 00:07:07.850 --> 00:07:09.570 crime's going as a matter of 00:07:09.570 --> 00:07:12.349 crime reports from the san francisco police department 00:07:12.349 --> 00:07:16.810 uh... showing young dot sohn maps uh... for citizens to be able to see patterns 00:07:16.810 --> 00:07:19.690 of crime around their neighborhoods in san francisco 00:07:19.690 --> 00:07:23.759 the map is not just about individual crimes but about broader patterns the 00:07:23.759 --> 00:07:26.209 show you where crime is clustered 00:07:26.209 --> 00:07:29.569 around the city which areas of high crimes which a resume relatively low 00:07:29.569 --> 00:07:31.409 crime 00:07:31.409 --> 00:07:32.719 me 00:07:32.719 --> 00:07:34.060 dates 00:07:34.060 --> 00:07:37.909 don't 00:07:37.909 --> 00:07:39.139 here at the top of 00:07:39.139 --> 00:07:40.440 jones street 00:07:40.440 --> 00:07:43.380 nob hill 00:07:43.380 --> 00:07:45.729 quite nice neighborhood 00:07:45.729 --> 00:07:49.440 put the crime maps jealous is the relationship between 00:07:49.440 --> 00:07:51.680 topography attempt to crime 00:07:51.680 --> 00:07:58.680 this was a higher up the helpful s progress 00:07:59.099 --> 00:08:03.339 to the flats 00:08:03.339 --> 00:08:05.639 especially as soon as you get into that 00:08:05.639 --> 00:08:12.639 hello rely areas to demonstrate the prime just to skyrocket 00:08:19.889 --> 00:08:21.569 we're hearing 00:08:21.569 --> 00:08:25.690 uh... uptown tenderloin district 00:08:25.690 --> 00:08:30.559 is one of the oldest condenses neighborhoods in san francisco 00:08:30.559 --> 00:08:32.820 this is where you go to buy drugs 00:08:32.820 --> 00:08:37.289 right around here 00:08:37.289 --> 00:08:41.930 dissociate lots of uh... aggravated assaults lots a lot of thefts 00:08:41.930 --> 00:08:45.300 basically they're huge part of the car that happens in the 00:08:45.300 --> 00:08:50.280 city happens just by two just viruses moderates 00:08:50.280 --> 00:08:53.010 k 00:08:53.010 --> 00:08:55.550 can you 00:08:55.550 --> 00:09:00.400 diffused beam him please sirens in your neighborhood you can use them and to 00:09:00.400 --> 00:09:02.820 find out why 00:09:02.820 --> 00:09:07.700 if you are denied in an unfamiliar part of town deconcini and that was streets 00:09:07.700 --> 00:09:09.230 to avoid 00:09:09.230 --> 00:09:13.520 if the neighbor gets bergen and you can see isn't the one off why has there been 00:09:13.520 --> 00:09:17.550 a spike in logan crime 00:09:17.550 --> 00:09:20.360 you can use their neighborhood and a word about its safety 00:09:20.360 --> 00:09:24.259 the fact that we have the ability to turn off all the nighttime in the middle 00:09:24.259 --> 00:09:27.329 of the day crimes and show you just the things that are happening during the 00:09:27.329 --> 00:09:28.100 commute 00:09:28.100 --> 00:09:30.300 is a statistical operation 00:09:30.300 --> 00:09:33.410 but i think to people that are interacting with the thing it feels very 00:09:33.410 --> 00:09:37.160 much more like they're just sort of browsing the website or shopping on 00:09:37.160 --> 00:09:41.370 amazon there their looking at data and they don't realize they're doing 00:09:41.370 --> 00:09:44.260 statistics 00:09:44.260 --> 00:09:46.150 what's most exciting for me 00:09:46.150 --> 00:09:49.300 is that public statistics is making citizen 00:09:49.300 --> 00:09:50.340 powerful 00:09:50.340 --> 00:09:57.340 and the authorities moral compass 00:10:01.180 --> 00:10:04.480 we have community meetings typically use a tent 00:10:04.480 --> 00:10:10.180 and what citizens are now doing are bringing printouts of the maps which 00:10:10.180 --> 00:10:14.950 show where crimes are taking place and they're demanding services from the 00:10:14.950 --> 00:10:19.070 police department and the police department is now having to change how 00:10:19.070 --> 00:10:20.970 they police 00:10:20.970 --> 00:10:23.540 how they provide policing services 00:10:23.540 --> 00:10:29.010 highs and the date is showing what is working and what isn't 00:10:29.010 --> 00:10:34.109 people in san francisco roadster using public data to max social inequalities 00:10:34.109 --> 00:10:37.110 and see how to improve society 00:10:37.110 --> 00:10:40.080 possibilities parts and 00:10:40.080 --> 00:10:41.450 i think ur dream 00:10:41.450 --> 00:10:46.430 government data analysis project would really be focused on life information on 00:10:46.430 --> 00:10:50.339 stuff that was being reported and pushed out of the world over the internet as it 00:10:50.339 --> 00:10:55.570 was happening you know trash pickups traffic accidents pluses 00:10:55.570 --> 00:10:58.920 through the kind of staffs gathering power of the internet it's possible to 00:10:58.920 --> 00:11:03.900 really begin to see that the workings of the city's displayed as a unified in 00:11:03.900 --> 00:11:08.050 advance 00:11:08.050 --> 00:11:10.080 that's why we are heading 00:11:10.080 --> 00:11:14.240 towards the world on fri data for the former statistical insights that come 00:11:14.240 --> 00:11:14.880 from it 00:11:14.880 --> 00:11:16.400 accessible to everyone 00:11:16.400 --> 00:11:18.320 empowering us as citizens 00:11:18.320 --> 00:11:22.350 electing household dot rulers to walk home 00:11:22.350 --> 00:11:27.180 along waiting for him as the districts began 00:11:27.180 --> 00:11:33.800 specter's x art is central to our store one enter our governments in our society 00:11:33.800 --> 00:11:38.210 it was all rumors out there was stalked in the collection of statistics in the 00:11:38.210 --> 00:11:45.210 first place the order that wanted to asked 00:11:47.410 --> 00:11:49.990 in fact wind statistics 00:11:49.990 --> 00:11:50.850 comes from 00:11:50.850 --> 00:11:52.520 misstate 00:11:52.520 --> 00:11:55.950 more than statistics began two centuries ago 00:11:55.950 --> 00:11:59.710 one think ought to go in and spread and never stop 00:11:59.710 --> 00:12:03.590 and guess who was fun 00:12:03.590 --> 00:12:06.600 the chinese have confucius 00:12:06.600 --> 00:12:10.310 the italians have done vientiane the british have shakespeare 00:12:10.310 --> 00:12:12.829 and we have picked up the elected 00:12:12.829 --> 00:12:16.540 the first ever systematic collection of statistics 00:12:16.540 --> 00:12:21.240 since the year seventeen forty nine we have collected 00:12:21.240 --> 00:12:23.510 date dot on every 00:12:23.510 --> 00:12:24.640 that it's a bit 00:12:24.640 --> 00:12:29.640 and we are proud of 00:12:29.640 --> 00:12:34.150 the cabin baggage he courted information from every parish in sweden 00:12:34.150 --> 00:12:34.889 it was you 00:12:34.889 --> 00:12:39.220 quantity of data and it was the first time antigovernment 00:12:39.220 --> 00:12:46.010 could get an accurate picture on xp 00:12:46.010 --> 00:12:50.490 uh... huh 00:12:50.490 --> 00:12:53.630 the greatest military power in northern new 00:12:53.630 --> 00:12:58.040 popeye seventeen forty nine always start with 00:12:58.040 --> 00:13:02.420 and other conference growing stronger 00:13:02.420 --> 00:13:04.110 room armstrong 00:13:04.110 --> 00:13:06.950 for to have twenty million people 00:13:06.950 --> 00:13:10.480 enough to rival the britain and frogs 00:13:10.480 --> 00:13:14.040 de 00:13:14.040 --> 00:13:19.080 party mood swings and that's this impasse 00:13:19.080 --> 00:13:24.540 analysis of abell back if you need that sweet land two million inhabitants 00:13:24.540 --> 00:13:28.030 singing and playing what what pollen decline 00:13:28.030 --> 00:13:30.920 it also had a very small population 00:13:30.920 --> 00:13:37.920 the government was horrified by this strike what is the enemies 00:13:38.030 --> 00:13:41.350 opted to have been directed towards the showed that many women died in 00:13:41.350 --> 00:13:42.700 childbirth 00:13:42.700 --> 00:13:44.690 and many children died young 00:13:44.690 --> 00:13:48.900 self-government took action to improve the health of the people 00:13:48.900 --> 00:13:50.070 this 00:13:50.070 --> 00:13:54.050 is the beginning awards and sweet 00:13:54.050 --> 00:13:59.859 it took more than fifteen years before the war strings belgians danes dutch 00:13:59.859 --> 00:14:02.540 french germans italians 00:14:02.540 --> 00:14:03.929 playing in the british 00:14:03.929 --> 00:14:10.929 caught up with sweet and in collecting and using statistics 00:14:24.380 --> 00:14:30.030 it was cool political risks was looking for reasons useful statistics 00:14:30.030 --> 00:14:34.530 don't skip them much more control understanding of calls the society house 00:14:34.530 --> 00:14:37.089 working parents developing and 00:14:37.089 --> 00:14:38.499 essentially so they could 00:14:38.499 --> 00:14:43.850 control it 00:14:43.850 --> 00:14:47.970 guest governments who woke up to the following statistics 00:14:47.970 --> 00:14:49.740 right across your room 00:14:49.740 --> 00:14:53.090 nineteenth-century societies went and that is perfect 00:14:53.090 --> 00:14:55.160 it 00:14:55.160 --> 00:14:57.690 despite the state's doctor britton 00:14:57.690 --> 00:15:01.100 with its royal statistical sense like a mom 00:15:01.100 --> 00:15:06.440 with soon statisticians nearby 00:15:06.440 --> 00:15:10.430 i loved looking at old copies of the rules to cisco such a x's 00:15:10.430 --> 00:15:12.140 full of sorts polled stuff 00:15:12.140 --> 00:15:15.820 deserve wonderful papers in eighteen forty it's which shows a matter of 00:15:15.820 --> 00:15:16.400 england 00:15:16.400 --> 00:15:21.530 and the rates of boston to uni scanty and so you can identifier it quickly the 00:15:21.530 --> 00:15:24.240 areas with high rates of blasted 00:15:24.240 --> 00:15:28.620 bikini sangeeta toys next recital off that norfolk seems to talk to the past 00:15:28.620 --> 00:15:33.440 decade waiting for tips 00:15:33.440 --> 00:15:37.230 one of the founders of the royal statistical society was the great 00:15:37.230 --> 00:15:39.850 victoria mathematician an inventor 00:15:39.850 --> 00:15:42.510 charles bandage 00:15:42.510 --> 00:15:47.850 in eighteen forty two he read the latest poll unbiased equally great victorian 00:15:47.850 --> 00:15:50.550 and for intensive 00:15:50.550 --> 00:15:53.560 vision of the scene contain the lines 00:15:53.560 --> 00:15:54.560 feel a cop 00:15:54.560 --> 00:15:58.390 and feel like i don't have a rollins before the morning 00:15:58.390 --> 00:16:03.320 every moment dot is a man every moment one is bold 00:16:03.320 --> 00:16:05.629 sloppiness that decision was about the ch 00:16:05.629 --> 00:16:09.569 that he could not containing the cell's he dashed off a letter to tennis on 00:16:09.569 --> 00:16:14.260 explaining that the course of population growth the lines should reach 00:16:14.260 --> 00:16:18.910 every moment dot is a man and one under sixteen is born 00:16:18.910 --> 00:16:24.020 and he added that the except finger is one point zero six seven but something 00:16:24.020 --> 00:16:31.020 must be conceded to the north of meat 00:16:32.340 --> 00:16:36.000 in the nineteenth century scholars or we work to do 00:16:36.000 --> 00:16:39.300 mason work in mission missile sites 00:16:39.300 --> 00:16:43.000 they were holding update almost everything 00:16:43.000 --> 00:16:46.290 but numbers of the dylan ten minutes 00:16:46.290 --> 00:16:48.240 you have to animal house 00:16:48.240 --> 00:16:54.860 and that's what makes the tasks 00:16:54.860 --> 00:17:00.120 you're when the first statisticians began to get to greet swimming analyzing 00:17:00.120 --> 00:17:01.050 the data 00:17:01.050 --> 00:17:03.290 pcs upon the average 00:17:03.290 --> 00:17:07.720 according to the average of everyone with 00:17:07.720 --> 00:17:14.720 that what's so great the bottom have reached is that you can take a mass 00:17:15.150 --> 00:17:22.150 something and use it to the single numbers and googling 00:17:22.390 --> 00:17:28.130 and we trust is unique collected lines reviews have reduced their content price 00:17:28.130 --> 00:17:34.560 for populations 00:17:34.560 --> 00:17:38.930 mhm 00:17:38.930 --> 00:17:43.860 with unhooked it might have called newspaper 00:17:43.860 --> 00:17:46.400 and short tensioner 00:17:46.400 --> 00:17:49.490 exhorting people to fulfill accelerated 00:17:49.490 --> 00:17:52.700 crashed her friend against all 00:17:52.700 --> 00:17:54.850 devastating hideous 00:17:54.850 --> 00:17:56.750 powerful sink 00:17:56.750 --> 00:17:59.860 none of the second one 00:17:59.860 --> 00:18:04.140 the young man he didn't have a driving license was driving a car under the 00:18:04.140 --> 00:18:08.330 influence of drugs and alcohol 00:18:08.330 --> 00:18:10.470 questions that the district 00:18:10.470 --> 00:18:12.169 was remarkable 00:18:12.169 --> 00:18:14.120 absolutely remarkable 00:18:14.120 --> 00:18:15.640 field at the number 00:18:15.640 --> 00:18:17.210 the people who die 00:18:17.210 --> 00:18:18.760 each year 00:18:18.760 --> 00:18:20.180 in traffic crashes 00:18:20.180 --> 00:18:24.750 incendiary a constant 00:18:24.750 --> 00:18:26.740 all these individual dents 00:18:26.740 --> 00:18:28.580 somehow when you some of them all up 00:18:28.580 --> 00:18:30.320 stays the same number 00:18:30.320 --> 00:18:31.960 every year 00:18:31.960 --> 00:18:33.230 and every year 00:18:33.230 --> 00:18:36.130 two-and-a-half times as many men 00:18:36.130 --> 00:18:39.120 traffic crashes since women and it's a constant 00:18:39.120 --> 00:18:40.409 and every year 00:18:40.409 --> 00:18:42.970 the rich indulgent estoppel 00:18:42.970 --> 00:18:44.730 to reaching into it 00:18:44.730 --> 00:18:47.570 that these remarkable regularities 00:18:47.570 --> 00:18:49.130 so that 00:18:49.130 --> 00:18:51.560 individual particular things 00:18:51.560 --> 00:18:57.030 sum up sum up into a social phenomena 00:18:57.030 --> 00:18:59.950 let's see what's we then have done the houston post about 00:18:59.950 --> 00:19:03.850 that social programs that's where we were reminded shift attention a little 00:19:03.850 --> 00:19:05.410 bit changing running 00:19:05.410 --> 00:19:10.559 and averages from entire country when is the average income tried mechanically 00:19:10.559 --> 00:19:13.390 family size and called the marshall 00:19:13.390 --> 00:19:15.010 but they are getting up 00:19:15.010 --> 00:19:16.310 billy wright was a bit 00:19:16.310 --> 00:19:18.000 singapore advice toddler 00:19:18.000 --> 00:19:20.659 defeat is the most probably found in the world 00:19:20.659 --> 00:19:24.429 marshall and only played should be a real if looking at the time for them to 00:19:24.429 --> 00:19:28.210 get independent but then they started to grow the economy and they made a social 00:19:28.210 --> 00:19:29.920 investment they caught the wave in the area 00:19:29.920 --> 00:19:32.960 throughout the magnificent help system that he could help you with this 00:19:32.960 --> 00:19:39.960 remember never forget what i had nothing on the 00:19:41.530 --> 00:19:42.350 useful 00:19:42.350 --> 00:19:49.330 as averages are safe don't tell you the whole story 00:19:49.330 --> 00:19:50.429 on average 00:19:50.429 --> 00:19:53.210 swedish people i was like a less than two x 00:19:53.210 --> 00:19:57.360 this is because a few people only have one leg or no legs 00:19:57.360 --> 00:19:58.390 and no one 00:19:58.390 --> 00:20:00.260 affiliate 00:20:00.260 --> 00:20:02.710 almost everybody in sweden 00:20:02.710 --> 00:20:07.020 has more blended average number alexis 00:20:07.020 --> 00:20:14.020 variation that guy's yes those important that the other 00:20:16.960 --> 00:20:19.460 but how do you get a handle on millions 00:20:19.460 --> 00:20:23.530 for this to transform numbers into shapes 00:20:23.530 --> 00:20:28.760 next look again at the number of adult women in sweden for heath heights 00:20:28.760 --> 00:20:30.659 looking digitizes shade 00:20:30.659 --> 00:20:36.810 shows how much they are heights vary from the average in hawaii blackberries 00:20:36.810 --> 00:20:39.220 the shape to set the date that makes its way 00:20:39.220 --> 00:20:41.620 if distribution 00:20:41.620 --> 00:20:46.200 this if the income distribution all shylock nineteen seventy 00:20:46.200 --> 00:20:50.179 this is being done here is the jewish and or the united states nineteen 00:20:50.179 --> 00:20:54.190 seventy-eight almost no overlap and what has happened 00:20:54.190 --> 00:20:58.590 china's growing it's not so equal any longer and he's appearing here 00:20:58.590 --> 00:21:01.030 overlooking the united states 00:21:01.030 --> 00:21:08.030 almost like a ghost isn't it time previous get a 00:21:17.430 --> 00:21:23.420 physician-assisted slow distribution systems once she says to himself says 00:21:23.420 --> 00:21:26.270 the states 00:21:26.270 --> 00:21:29.769 dance card president on the south estimated 00:21:29.769 --> 00:21:32.580 he did the machine that could be a producer 00:21:32.580 --> 00:21:37.390 and he found thinking so many different sets of nationalist betty mehendi than 00:21:37.390 --> 00:21:39.630 normal distribution 00:21:39.630 --> 00:21:42.720 sleepless pieces arms 00:21:42.720 --> 00:21:44.169 non-cancerous 00:21:44.169 --> 00:21:46.720 or stephen beard families 00:21:46.720 --> 00:21:52.370 the normal distribution shaped return time and time again 00:21:52.370 --> 00:21:56.560 under statisticians soon from any on the regulations 00:21:56.560 --> 00:22:02.360 each produced by a particular kind of natural or social 00:22:02.360 --> 00:22:03.940 everest at the station 00:22:03.940 --> 00:22:05.780 their favorite 00:22:05.780 --> 00:22:10.460 fossil distribution procedure is raised by favorite distribution texas absolute 00:22:10.460 --> 00:22:15.970 crap done 00:22:15.970 --> 00:22:20.460 inquest solution a describes how likely it is that out of the ordinary things 00:22:20.460 --> 00:22:25.610 will happen emotional on the muscle what we know that when everybody gets revises 00:22:25.610 --> 00:22:29.640 enough we won't lose again three buses and gruesome 00:22:29.640 --> 00:22:34.510 amazingly the partial shade please show us the probability that in any given our 00:22:34.510 --> 00:22:39.860 word when we get four five or six months is one of us is the time 00:22:39.860 --> 00:22:43.900 the exact shape changes pediatrics 00:22:43.900 --> 00:22:47.919 but whether it's how many people will win the lottery check 00:22:47.919 --> 00:22:52.740 or how many people in the former cold symptoms mimic plus one shape we give 00:22:52.740 --> 00:22:57.690 the probabilities 00:22:57.690 --> 00:23:01.249 the wonderful example but this was applied to the late nineteenth century 00:23:01.249 --> 00:23:05.470 was to can teach she is the number of prashant offices calorie offices and 00:23:05.470 --> 00:23:07.460 kicked to death by the horses 00:23:07.460 --> 00:23:11.380 as some use of the nuns and here's the ones from his too 00:23:11.380 --> 00:23:14.120 up to seven i think one ticking died here 00:23:14.120 --> 00:23:19.970 and buttons distribution permanent bizarre taf crushing cavalry officer 00:23:19.970 --> 00:23:21.720 skip taft cases 00:23:21.720 --> 00:23:25.380 usually obey the constitution 00:23:25.380 --> 00:23:32.380 just 00:23:34.520 --> 00:23:36.530 tests 00:23:36.530 --> 00:23:41.780 cert 00:23:41.780 --> 00:23:43.460 going 00:23:43.460 --> 00:23:47.400 so statisticians use she c you then 00:23:47.400 --> 00:23:53.320 candidate ability using images of warmth kinds to communicate statistics to a 00:23:53.320 --> 00:23:54.789 wider public 00:23:54.789 --> 00:23:56.090 because 00:23:56.090 --> 00:23:57.980 it's a story in the numbers 00:23:57.980 --> 00:24:03.780 he's told by a beautiful and clever image thank everyone understand 00:24:03.780 --> 00:24:06.529 of the pioneers of statistically graphics 00:24:06.529 --> 00:24:13.529 my favorite is florence unlike 00:24:22.710 --> 00:24:26.380 tire they're not many people don't realize it actually she was there was a 00:24:26.380 --> 00:24:28.190 passion statistician 00:24:28.190 --> 00:24:31.190 and not just of a vehicle out 00:24:31.190 --> 00:24:35.270 she said that understand god's thoughts we must study statistics but these are 00:24:35.270 --> 00:24:37.450 the measure of his purpose 00:24:37.450 --> 00:24:42.190 it's just it's less river villages detailer alternative 00:24:42.190 --> 00:24:46.380 flashes nine-years-old she started collecting data heard it was different 00:24:46.380 --> 00:24:50.820 fruits and vegetables she felt prelim into different tables trying to organize 00:24:50.820 --> 00:24:55.010 them in some standard for so we have one of the playing fields first to school 00:24:55.010 --> 00:25:02.010 tables at the age of mine 00:25:04.860 --> 00:25:08.039 immediately fifties florence nightingale 00:25:08.039 --> 00:25:11.850 went to the crime he had to cancel british cash infusion 00:25:11.850 --> 00:25:14.980 she was forty five i want to discuss 00:25:14.980 --> 00:25:18.160 these soldiers being blown to bits on the battlefield 00:25:18.160 --> 00:25:22.290 there were many many more soldiers dying from the sees his state court in the 00:25:22.290 --> 00:25:25.590 armies filthy hostels 00:25:25.590 --> 00:25:29.409 so florence nightingale began compton content 00:25:29.409 --> 00:25:35.730 for two years she recorded mortality data unique too touristy 00:25:35.730 --> 00:25:40.980 it was over she persuaded the government to set up a royal commission of inquiry 00:25:40.980 --> 00:25:45.100 and gathered her dating devastating report 00:25:45.100 --> 00:25:48.269 this amended took place in the statistically history books 00:25:48.269 --> 00:25:50.340 on the graphics shields 00:25:50.340 --> 00:25:51.830 and one in particular 00:25:51.830 --> 00:25:54.299 the polar area graph 00:25:54.299 --> 00:25:56.650 for each month of the war 00:25:56.650 --> 00:26:00.360 usually low wage represented the soldiers who are dying from preventable 00:26:00.360 --> 00:26:02.390 disease 00:26:02.390 --> 00:26:05.370 much more of a bridges more deaths from 00:26:05.370 --> 00:26:07.500 owns and the plaque wages 00:26:07.500 --> 00:26:10.990 deaths from accidents and public works 00:26:10.990 --> 00:26:13.840 nineteen days graphics mercele cleaner 00:26:13.840 --> 00:26:14.619 me working 00:26:14.619 --> 00:26:17.330 possible treatment 00:26:17.330 --> 00:26:20.049 the usual cigarette from start to get storms just adjust 00:26:20.049 --> 00:26:24.530 tables in tables and figures are you've got to really tedious stocks that unless 00:26:24.530 --> 00:26:28.220 you're actually dedicated statisticians will be quite difficult spot the patents 00:26:28.220 --> 00:26:29.250 quite naturally 00:26:29.250 --> 00:26:30.840 but an visualizations 00:26:30.840 --> 00:26:34.710 they tell a story to tell a story immediately and use of color 00:26:34.710 --> 00:26:36.400 and usage schenk 00:26:36.400 --> 00:26:39.850 you do to really tell a powerful story and now it is of course we can make 00:26:39.850 --> 00:26:41.370 things move as well 00:26:41.370 --> 00:26:44.790 for such here would love to have played with should have been 00:26:44.790 --> 00:26:49.590 jews wonderful animation semantics 00:26:49.590 --> 00:26:51.380 ru 00:26:51.380 --> 00:26:54.149 today a hundred and fifty years old 00:26:54.149 --> 00:26:57.959 nightingale is graphics are rightly regarded as a class in 00:26:57.959 --> 00:27:02.109 they lead to a revolution in nursing health care in hygiene hospitals 00:27:02.109 --> 00:27:06.900 worldwide wheat cv innumerable times that 00:27:06.900 --> 00:27:11.640 the statistical graphics has become an art form where it's a very old learned 00:27:11.640 --> 00:27:17.180 by deciding to restore passionate about it is relaxing there 00:27:17.180 --> 00:27:19.970 will lure 00:27:19.970 --> 00:27:23.169 remember more 00:27:23.169 --> 00:27:27.420 in rice's two billion pounds are ground 00:27:27.420 --> 00:27:31.100 this image arose frustration with the reporting of 00:27:31.100 --> 00:27:34.480 billion panna medicine a media fire in japan in pounds for this war 00:27:34.480 --> 00:27:37.870 fifty billion pounds this or still doesn't common sense is known as the two 00:27:37.870 --> 00:27:41.270 enormous to get your mind round source craigslist data from various news 00:27:41.270 --> 00:27:43.460 sources in trade the star graham 00:27:43.460 --> 00:27:49.050 squares hero scaled according to the billion pan-am outs 00:27:49.050 --> 00:27:51.880 we see numbers visualize like this 00:27:51.880 --> 00:27:54.240 the start of a different kind of relationship with them 00:27:54.240 --> 00:27:57.029 uh... because of see patterns you see the scale of them 00:27:57.029 --> 00:27:59.710 here at the corner this little square thirty seven billion 00:27:59.710 --> 00:28:03.309 i was the cost projected cost iraq war in two thousand three 00:28:03.309 --> 00:28:05.460 as you can see it's grown exponentially 00:28:05.460 --> 00:28:06.589 of the last few years 00:28:06.589 --> 00:28:08.309 so the total cost house around about 00:28:08.309 --> 00:28:11.210 two thousand five hundred billion 00:28:11.210 --> 00:28:14.540 it's funny 'cause when you visualize two sticks on this you understand them when 00:28:14.540 --> 00:28:15.970 you understand them 00:28:15.970 --> 00:28:22.970 you can really start puts things into perspective 00:28:24.530 --> 00:28:28.900 we should learn stations right at the heart of my own walked to 00:28:28.900 --> 00:28:31.140 i teach global health 00:28:31.140 --> 00:28:33.940 and i know having the data is not enough 00:28:33.940 --> 00:28:40.000 i have to show it in ways people both enjoy and i understand 00:28:40.000 --> 00:28:44.580 i'm going to try something i've never done before animating the dating really 00:28:44.580 --> 00:28:45.980 stinks 00:28:45.980 --> 00:28:50.870 with a bit of technical assistance from the crew 00:28:50.870 --> 00:28:52.500 so here we go 00:28:52.500 --> 00:28:54.360 first taxes for help 00:28:54.360 --> 00:28:55.940 life expectancy 00:28:55.940 --> 00:29:01.620 from twenty-five years seventy-five years and out here access for work 00:29:01.620 --> 00:29:03.159 income per person 00:29:03.159 --> 00:29:04.240 four hundred 00:29:04.240 --> 00:29:07.040 four thousand and forty thousand dollars 00:29:07.040 --> 00:29:09.600 so down here 00:29:09.600 --> 00:29:10.649 and sick 00:29:10.649 --> 00:29:15.580 and cop here is rich and health 00:29:15.580 --> 00:29:18.840 i want to show the world two hundred years ago 00:29:18.840 --> 00:29:21.410 in eighteen ten 00:29:21.410 --> 00:29:23.000 here come all the countries 00:29:23.000 --> 00:29:26.289 you know ground station away hideously 00:29:26.289 --> 00:29:29.850 acrobats tells us army or and the american deal 00:29:29.850 --> 00:29:34.179 and the soyuz over the country bubble soulless eyes of the population 00:29:34.179 --> 00:29:38.760 and eighteen ten it is pretty crowded down there wasn't it congress were 00:29:38.760 --> 00:29:42.539 sickened pork life expectancy will be lost 00:29:42.539 --> 00:29:47.460 in oregon please everyting you kate and then the lance was like it better off 00:29:47.460 --> 00:29:48.799 not much 00:29:48.799 --> 00:29:49.720 and now 00:29:49.720 --> 00:29:52.920 wise dot the world 00:29:52.920 --> 00:29:57.410 industrial revolution makes companies in europe and elsewhere 00:29:57.410 --> 00:29:59.210 move away from the rest 00:29:59.210 --> 00:30:04.049 apologize countries in asia and africa best backed down there 00:30:04.049 --> 00:30:08.540 and eventually the western countries get healthier and healthier 00:30:08.540 --> 00:30:14.430 and now we slow down to show the impact on the first world war and the spanish 00:30:14.430 --> 00:30:15.850 flu epidemic 00:30:15.850 --> 00:30:18.549 what does it 00:30:18.549 --> 00:30:22.990 and now i speed up through the nineteen twenties and the nineteen thirties and 00:30:22.990 --> 00:30:26.910 in spite of the great depression was to come visit for john doe was greater 00:30:26.910 --> 00:30:32.510 wealth and helped and some others try to follow but most interesting down here 00:30:32.510 --> 00:30:37.340 up often the tragedies of the second world war we stop a bit to look at the 00:30:37.340 --> 00:30:39.670 world in nineteen forty eight 00:30:39.670 --> 00:30:42.200 nineteen forty eight was a great year 00:30:42.200 --> 00:30:43.610 the war was over 00:30:43.610 --> 00:30:48.080 sweden topped the metal table at the winter olympics and i was born 00:30:48.080 --> 00:30:49.480 buffet differences 00:30:49.480 --> 00:30:53.019 between the congress of the world was wider than ever 00:30:53.019 --> 00:30:57.140 united states was in the frog japan was catching up 00:30:57.140 --> 00:31:02.030 brazil is way behind iran was getting a little richard from lloyd but still had 00:31:02.030 --> 00:31:03.080 short life 00:31:03.080 --> 00:31:05.509 and dictation giants 00:31:05.509 --> 00:31:09.759 china india pakistan bangladesh in indonesia and they were still poor 00:31:09.759 --> 00:31:11.190 instinct on here 00:31:11.190 --> 00:31:12.999 but he'll play is about to happen 00:31:12.999 --> 00:31:14.320 gila delegate 00:31:14.320 --> 00:31:18.840 in my lifetime former colonies gained independence and then finally they 00:31:18.840 --> 00:31:23.620 starting to get healthier and healthy it and healthier and in the nineteen 00:31:23.620 --> 00:31:24.510 seventies 00:31:24.510 --> 00:31:28.060 then countries indication that the american student of catch up with the 00:31:28.060 --> 00:31:30.080 western countries the meeting with me 00:31:30.080 --> 00:31:34.509 emerging economies sunny method of follows some african rostock in civil 00:31:34.509 --> 00:31:39.830 war and i was hit by a charity and now we can see the wall today in the most 00:31:39.830 --> 00:31:43.340 up-to-date statistics 00:31:43.340 --> 00:31:45.980 most people today in the mid 00:31:45.980 --> 00:31:48.919 but then you should get friends at the same time between them 00:31:48.919 --> 00:31:51.630 best of congress and the worst of cuts 00:31:51.630 --> 00:31:52.390 and i will say 00:31:52.390 --> 00:31:54.800 lives in the qualities with the income 00:31:54.800 --> 00:31:58.610 these problems shel country average s but i just think that 00:31:58.610 --> 00:32:02.420 they china i can split it into provinces 00:32:02.420 --> 00:32:05.500 bearing goes shanghai 00:32:05.500 --> 00:32:11.370 it is the same boat as it related and a interpol reliant on those white show it 00:32:11.370 --> 00:32:12.759 is like pakistan 00:32:12.759 --> 00:32:15.200 any text picket fence 00:32:15.200 --> 00:32:19.860 the rural parts are like calling africa 00:32:19.860 --> 00:32:21.070 and yet 00:32:21.070 --> 00:32:25.360 despite the enormous disparities to date we have seen two hundred years of 00:32:25.360 --> 00:32:27.420 remarkable progress 00:32:27.420 --> 00:32:31.890 that's a huge historical gap between the west and the rest is not closed eight 00:32:31.890 --> 00:32:35.860 we have become an entirely new converging world 00:32:35.860 --> 00:32:39.580 and i see it clearly friend into the future we can you need to treat a green 00:32:39.580 --> 00:32:44.410 technology and bs its full impossible that everyone can make it to the healthy 00:32:44.410 --> 00:32:48.550 wealthy corner 00:32:48.550 --> 00:32:50.120 wenjie dot c 00:32:50.120 --> 00:32:53.929 for the last few minutes is a story of two hundred congress 00:32:53.929 --> 00:32:56.610 showing over two hundred years and beyond 00:32:56.610 --> 00:32:58.450 it involve plotting on 00:32:58.450 --> 00:33:01.340 one hundred and twenty thousand numbers 00:33:01.340 --> 00:33:08.139 pretty neat 00:33:08.139 --> 00:33:09.149 so 00:33:09.149 --> 00:33:13.450 with statistics we can begin to see things as they really are 00:33:13.450 --> 00:33:17.290 from tables update dental and reduce these tributions and issuing this 00:33:17.290 --> 00:33:23.330 nation's statistics gives us a clear description of the world 00:33:23.330 --> 00:33:28.630 athletes distinctly cannot only discovered much is happening 00:33:28.630 --> 00:33:35.630 bottles explore why by using the powerful analytical method correlation 00:33:35.679 --> 00:33:38.429 just looking at one thing at the time is intended for 00:33:38.429 --> 00:33:42.150 you've got to look at the relationships between finance has a chance to have a 00:33:42.150 --> 00:33:43.380 very together 00:33:43.380 --> 00:33:46.590 in that sport correlation is a pack and that's why i stopped trying to 00:33:46.590 --> 00:33:52.940 understand to crysis is that they're really going on in the world in society 00:33:52.940 --> 00:33:57.240 most of us today would recognize that crying correlates to poverty 00:33:57.240 --> 00:34:00.340 that infection correlates to poor sanitation 00:34:00.340 --> 00:34:06.810 and that knowledge of statistics correlates to being great at balancing 00:34:06.810 --> 00:34:10.589 relations can be very pretty 00:34:10.589 --> 00:34:13.149 i got a joke about silly correlations 00:34:13.149 --> 00:34:15.820 that was that the american i was afraid of a heart attack 00:34:15.820 --> 00:34:18.969 and he found out that the japanese 00:34:18.969 --> 00:34:23.019 the marriage of fat 00:34:23.019 --> 00:34:25.509 action this heart attacks than the american 00:34:25.509 --> 00:34:26.670 but on the other hand 00:34:26.670 --> 00:34:28.789 also follow up with a friend 00:34:28.789 --> 00:34:32.829 eat as much practically americans and they want to know why 00:34:32.829 --> 00:34:39.829 also and less artifacts 00:34:41.889 --> 00:34:45.339 this next round of the lead groundbreaking coronation 00:34:45.339 --> 00:34:48.970 is the link that was established in the nineteen fifties between smoking and 00:34:48.970 --> 00:34:51.299 lung cancer 00:34:51.299 --> 00:34:53.689 notlong after the second world war 00:34:53.689 --> 00:34:55.969 a british doctors reach abroad 00:34:55.969 --> 00:34:59.969 investigated lung cancer patient in twenty long on hospitals 00:34:59.969 --> 00:35:04.349 and he became system that the only thing they have in common with smoking 00:35:04.349 --> 00:35:05.500 so certain 00:35:05.500 --> 00:35:07.489 she stopped smoking inside 00:35:07.489 --> 00:35:08.789 on the page 00:35:08.789 --> 00:35:11.449 runs social 00:35:11.449 --> 00:35:14.499 moderates a discussion of the early days just 00:35:14.499 --> 00:35:18.489 linking smoking to lung cancer simplicial smoking shortly that thing 00:35:18.489 --> 00:35:21.849 that we've come about life's account be bad for you 00:35:21.849 --> 00:35:24.009 maybe it's jeans 00:35:24.009 --> 00:35:28.450 maybe people would genetically predisposed to get lung cancer are also 00:35:28.450 --> 00:35:33.119 genetically predisposed to smoke 00:35:33.119 --> 00:35:36.649 maybe it's not the smoking maybe its air pollution 00:35:36.649 --> 00:35:41.809 that smokers are somehow more exposed to air pollution non-smokers 00:35:41.809 --> 00:35:43.149 maybe it's not 00:35:43.149 --> 00:35:45.289 smoking maybe it's public 00:35:45.289 --> 00:35:51.769 so now we've got three alternate explanations apart from chance 00:35:51.769 --> 00:35:53.589 parties coronation 00:35:53.589 --> 00:35:58.300 digging flight cause-and-effect returned on created the biggest existed to study 00:35:58.300 --> 00:35:59.969 of smoking thing 00:35:59.969 --> 00:36:03.719 he began cracking the life some forty thousand british dot 00:36:03.719 --> 00:36:06.910 some of whom smoke and some of whom did 00:36:06.910 --> 00:36:09.869 and get this enough data to acquire anything in mind 00:36:09.869 --> 00:36:14.189 if the doctor smoke within likelihood of getting cancer 00:36:14.189 --> 00:36:18.229 eventually he not only showed a correlation between smoking and lung 00:36:18.229 --> 00:36:23.299 cancer platforms to a correlation between stopping smoking and reducing 00:36:23.299 --> 00:36:24.479 the risk 00:36:24.479 --> 00:36:28.679 this messiahs at its best 00:36:28.679 --> 00:36:31.449 what correlations do not replace 00:36:31.449 --> 00:36:32.999 he's human sort 00:36:32.999 --> 00:36:35.869 good think about what it means 00:36:35.869 --> 00:36:40.079 knew what a good scientist has if he comes up with the correlation 00:36:40.079 --> 00:36:40.859 ease 00:36:40.859 --> 00:36:45.399 try as hard as she or he possibly can to disprove it 00:36:45.399 --> 00:36:47.489 to break it down to get rid of it 00:36:47.489 --> 00:36:49.079 to try and refute it 00:36:49.079 --> 00:36:53.459 and if it was stones all those efforts 00:36:53.459 --> 00:36:56.439 demolishing it and it's still standing out 00:36:56.439 --> 00:37:00.719 then cautiously say weary might have something here 00:37:00.719 --> 00:37:03.209 bernard 00:37:03.209 --> 00:37:05.699 bed 00:37:05.699 --> 00:37:08.639 benetton 00:37:08.639 --> 00:37:13.919 character 00:37:13.919 --> 00:37:16.739 ho 00:37:16.739 --> 00:37:22.049 henry lee and the scientist date that is to be able to jim and finance 00:37:22.049 --> 00:37:26.659 the good news is that the more we had the more correlations will find the more 00:37:26.659 --> 00:37:28.399 theories will test 00:37:28.399 --> 00:37:35.399 and the more discoveries that we are likely to make 00:37:35.569 --> 00:37:40.920 and history shows park total sum of the information bruising usually keeps as we 00:37:40.920 --> 00:37:43.389 develop new technologies 00:37:43.389 --> 00:37:47.469 the mention of the printing press kicked off the first day an information 00:37:47.469 --> 00:37:49.199 explosion 00:37:49.199 --> 00:37:53.089 he complained about the glove the books that i mean print by the year is 00:37:53.089 --> 00:37:55.339 seventeen hundred 00:37:55.339 --> 00:38:02.299 didn't make six this tax each as high is montane forest 00:38:02.299 --> 00:38:05.070 then starting in the nineteenth century 00:38:05.070 --> 00:38:07.720 they came a second information revolution 00:38:07.720 --> 00:38:11.509 with the telegraph gramophone and can later 00:38:11.509 --> 00:38:13.509 radio and tv 00:38:13.509 --> 00:38:17.119 to obtain long-term information exploded 00:38:17.119 --> 00:38:20.839 them by the nineteen fifties the information available to us all 00:38:20.839 --> 00:38:25.509 had multiplied six thousand pints 00:38:25.509 --> 00:38:30.279 thanks to the computer linked to the independently went digital 00:38:30.279 --> 00:38:37.279 mainland of belize we have now he's wanting mentioned the 00:38:39.359 --> 00:38:44.409 seemed a little denoble politically than right 00:38:44.409 --> 00:38:51.249 printed page pete wilson killed by 00:38:51.249 --> 00:38:53.390 five megabytes enough of it 00:38:53.390 --> 00:38:57.420 people aren't insured 00:38:57.420 --> 00:38:58.950 pending dot lights 00:38:58.950 --> 00:39:05.929 that's a dvd movies 00:39:05.929 --> 00:39:10.409 to metabolize is himself millions off of things 00:39:10.409 --> 00:39:14.739 faceplate everyday 00:39:14.739 --> 00:39:20.119 stoplights is the data recorder every second by the world's largest particle 00:39:20.119 --> 00:39:25.119 accelerator so much higher tiny fractions 00:39:25.119 --> 00:39:26.879 six exabytes 00:39:26.879 --> 00:39:33.879 is what you have secrecy 00:39:37.749 --> 00:39:39.529 but we had that's not good 00:39:39.529 --> 00:39:44.499 in two thousand nine the internet added up to five hundred except and in two 00:39:44.499 --> 00:39:47.559 thousand to in yes the here 00:39:47.559 --> 00:39:54.559 stepping down to more than what is it that way 00:39:55.299 --> 00:39:56.939 back in the world 00:39:56.939 --> 00:39:59.919 here to tell all this data into print 00:39:59.919 --> 00:40:02.610 it would make ninety stacks of both 00:40:02.610 --> 00:40:08.069 sandy treat you from here and all the way you do this 00:40:08.069 --> 00:40:10.949 dazed and then you just answering 00:40:10.949 --> 00:40:17.509 with today's computers and statistics i'm confident we can handle it 00:40:17.509 --> 00:40:21.819 when it comes to on the date on the internet powerhouse of statistical 00:40:21.819 --> 00:40:28.819 analysis is the silicon valley giant 00:40:33.399 --> 00:40:37.659 the average person over their lifetime is exposed to about a hundred million 00:40:37.659 --> 00:40:43.209 words conversation so if you multiply that by the six billion people on the 00:40:43.209 --> 00:40:44.450 planet data 00:40:44.450 --> 00:40:48.300 brown words about the world to the number of words that will has available 00:40:48.300 --> 00:40:51.899 to that he wants to talk 00:40:51.899 --> 00:40:54.059 whose computers happen 00:40:54.059 --> 00:40:58.749 finally every document webpage in image they can find 00:40:58.749 --> 00:41:04.639 fagan hunt for patents and correlations in all this date dot doing statistics on 00:41:04.639 --> 00:41:06.669 them that sixty 00:41:06.669 --> 00:41:07.749 and for me 00:41:07.749 --> 00:41:12.499 will be has one project that the particular excite statistical language 00:41:12.499 --> 00:41:14.869 translation 00:41:14.869 --> 00:41:19.819 who wanted to provide access to all the winds information matter what languages 00:41:19.819 --> 00:41:22.540 there's just so much information on the internet you can help 00:41:22.540 --> 00:41:27.710 to translate it all bike and into every possible language we figured we'd have 00:41:27.710 --> 00:41:32.989 to be able to do machine translation 00:41:32.989 --> 00:41:37.249 in the past program has tried to teach their computers to free speech language 00:41:37.249 --> 00:41:39.689 as the system dramatically lose 00:41:39.689 --> 00:41:42.819 much like the women which is much more difficult 00:41:42.819 --> 00:41:44.219 his feet in front 00:41:44.219 --> 00:41:48.880 because no one set the rules to cash in online which informix subtlety in 00:41:48.880 --> 00:41:51.169 ambiguity 00:41:51.169 --> 00:41:53.019 having eaten hot lunch 00:41:53.019 --> 00:41:55.169 because depart 00:41:55.169 --> 00:41:57.069 well that's all this weekend correct 00:41:57.069 --> 00:42:01.279 written like that it would imply that the coach has eaten lunch 00:42:01.279 --> 00:42:04.309 it will be far letters 00:42:04.309 --> 00:42:06.279 having eating my lunch 00:42:06.279 --> 00:42:09.249 we departed in the collection 00:42:09.249 --> 00:42:10.480 those rules are helpful 00:42:10.480 --> 00:42:14.440 and they are are useful most the time but they don't turn out that the true 00:42:14.440 --> 00:42:18.809 all the time ten the insight using statistical machine translation 00:42:18.809 --> 00:42:23.059 is saying wealthy gotta have all these exceptions anyways maybe you can get by 00:42:23.059 --> 00:42:27.309 without having its wheels maybe he can treat everything as an exception nasa 00:42:27.309 --> 00:42:34.309 says we want to 00:42:37.899 --> 00:42:41.759 but the computer is doing when when he's learning how to translate is too low 00:42:41.759 --> 00:42:47.149 in correlations between boats and correlations between phrases so we'd be 00:42:47.149 --> 00:42:50.239 we feed this system very large amounts of data 00:42:50.239 --> 00:42:53.969 and then the system is seeing that uh... certain good research the phrase 00:42:53.969 --> 00:42:58.739 correlates very often to the other language 00:42:58.739 --> 00:43:00.069 websites 00:43:00.069 --> 00:43:04.909 parents office translation between in your fifty seven different languages 00:43:04.909 --> 00:43:09.509 it does this purely a statistically having correlated the huge collection of 00:43:09.509 --> 00:43:12.479 multilingual texans 00:43:12.479 --> 00:43:16.139 the people to build the system don't need to know chinese in order to the 00:43:16.139 --> 00:43:19.719 chinese strings just a little beaten noah rebekah but the expertise that's 00:43:19.719 --> 00:43:23.519 needed is basically knowledge of statistics knowledge of computer science 00:43:23.519 --> 00:43:27.700 that knowledge of infrastructure to bolt those very large computational systems 00:43:27.700 --> 00:43:29.999 that we are building for doing that 00:43:29.999 --> 00:43:33.729 okay so then i'm going to invite yahoo com political good from my office in 00:43:33.729 --> 00:43:34.699 stockholm 00:43:34.699 --> 00:43:40.869 to try the translator for myself 00:43:40.869 --> 00:43:44.199 okay 00:43:44.199 --> 00:43:46.329 linden 00:43:46.329 --> 00:43:49.839 or 00:43:49.839 --> 00:43:54.319 located so it says remains finance ministers appointed 00:43:54.319 --> 00:43:56.609 and a gold ring in your your 00:43:56.609 --> 00:44:03.609 so here's the problem is that if you're a cash 00:44:06.199 --> 00:44:09.029 rockport fat cats 00:44:09.029 --> 00:44:12.910 starts 00:44:12.910 --> 00:44:14.489 from school 00:44:14.489 --> 00:44:15.689 na 00:44:15.689 --> 00:44:18.259 these corp 00:44:18.259 --> 00:44:22.479 and his same sex partnerships as stockholm snoopy shop and his partners 00:44:22.479 --> 00:44:25.029 three-years-old 00:44:25.029 --> 00:44:27.029 hume 00:44:27.029 --> 00:44:28.700 expire 00:44:28.700 --> 00:44:30.769 except after bachchan 00:44:30.769 --> 00:44:35.930 okay so so that's uh... those kinds of riches and her one of the challenges in 00:44:35.930 --> 00:44:39.829 in translation to be really does frighten theater kathleen sharp slide 00:44:39.829 --> 00:44:42.529 you excuse me 00:44:42.529 --> 00:44:45.389 causing more often than not it would probably be it is 00:44:45.389 --> 00:44:46.259 crack 00:44:46.259 --> 00:44:51.399 or the fact that madison i do you do you do it would be all that and wallet dot 00:44:51.399 --> 00:44:55.429 oc oxford 00:44:55.429 --> 00:44:59.859 cream when sweeney's taking part in a pickle it's not to win but to be below 00:44:59.859 --> 00:45:00.839 which 00:45:00.839 --> 00:45:04.889 that yes the 00:45:04.889 --> 00:45:06.849 cartwright 00:45:06.849 --> 00:45:09.819 uh... drug-related 00:45:09.819 --> 00:45:10.509 xd 00:45:10.509 --> 00:45:11.589 atpase 00:45:11.589 --> 00:45:13.679 i don't 00:45:13.679 --> 00:45:14.639 aspect 00:45:14.639 --> 00:45:16.739 apart by fax 00:45:16.739 --> 00:45:19.939 partnerships chuck 00:45:19.939 --> 00:45:21.450 controlled lead real good 00:45:21.450 --> 00:45:25.789 but if they succeed with what's next that'll be a remarkable 00:45:25.789 --> 00:45:29.839 one other exciting possibilities is combining machine translation technology 00:45:29.839 --> 00:45:31.739 with the speech recognition technology 00:45:31.739 --> 00:45:35.359 now both of these are statistical in nature them 00:45:35.359 --> 00:45:38.089 machine translation relies on the statistics 00:45:38.089 --> 00:45:40.379 of mapping from one language to another 00:45:40.379 --> 00:45:44.689 personally speech recognition relies on the statistics of matt mapping from a 00:45:44.689 --> 00:45:47.419 sound form to the words 00:45:47.419 --> 00:45:48.849 when we put them together 00:45:48.849 --> 00:45:53.089 now we have the capability of having instant conversation between two people 00:45:53.089 --> 00:45:57.759 that don't speak a common lecture that uh... i can talk to you in my language 00:45:57.759 --> 00:46:02.699 you hear me in your language and you can answer back and in real time you can 00:46:02.699 --> 00:46:04.259 make that translation 00:46:04.259 --> 00:46:11.259 can bring to get people together and allow them to speak 00:46:20.809 --> 00:46:24.540 the intimate is just one how many technologies 00:46:24.540 --> 00:46:28.339 created together massive amounts of data 00:46:28.339 --> 00:46:32.619 scientists studying our send our environment 00:46:32.619 --> 00:46:38.189 now use and implantable ancients instruments to mention the processes up 00:46:38.189 --> 00:46:42.179 our plans 00:46:42.179 --> 00:46:49.179 all around us are sensors continuously measuring temperature water flow 00:46:49.629 --> 00:46:55.219 and high in order to our satellites busy engaging cloud formations forest growth 00:46:55.219 --> 00:46:56.729 and snow cover 00:46:56.729 --> 00:47:01.339 scientists beacons instrument in the uh... 00:47:01.339 --> 00:47:02.649 not 00:47:02.649 --> 00:47:07.939 and pointing up to the skies above are powerful new telescopes connecting the 00:47:07.939 --> 00:47:14.939 universe 00:47:19.389 --> 00:47:21.570 what's happening in last commonly 00:47:21.570 --> 00:47:28.570 east difficult how profoundly different torrent update dot is transforming side 00:47:29.059 --> 00:47:34.319 astronomers on our interesting man in june mysteries of the cost must 00:47:34.319 --> 00:47:36.999 compliance peacekeeping net 00:47:36.999 --> 00:47:43.999 all these new delhi 00:47:49.259 --> 00:47:52.329 because he's a very big place things got billions of stars in it 00:47:52.329 --> 00:47:56.559 and so to put together a coherent picture of the whole galaxy requires 00:47:56.559 --> 00:47:58.569 cutting enormous amount of data 00:47:58.569 --> 00:48:02.669 and before you could you afford sky survey with sensitive diesel detectors 00:48:02.669 --> 00:48:07.009 that meant that you could matt many many stars all once is very difficult to 00:48:07.009 --> 00:48:14.009 build up enough data on the for the past 00:48:14.049 --> 00:48:19.170 in the past launch surveys of the night sky had to be done by exposing thousands 00:48:19.170 --> 00:48:21.509 of large photographic dates 00:48:21.509 --> 00:48:28.509 off these thirties scoop takes twenty five years or more to compete 00:48:28.799 --> 00:48:33.469 then in the nineteen nineties came digital a strong 00:48:33.469 --> 00:48:38.979 region increasing both moms and the accessibility affairs 00:48:38.979 --> 00:48:43.019 the slow in the sky survey is the world's biggest yes 00:48:43.019 --> 00:48:47.889 using a massive digital sensor mounted on the back of a custom-built 00:48:47.889 --> 00:48:50.119 telescoping new mexico 00:48:50.119 --> 00:48:54.280 it stand the sky indictments tonight forty two years 00:48:54.280 --> 00:48:58.979 building up a complicit picture in unprecedented resolutions 00:48:58.979 --> 00:49:03.459 sort of some of the best steepest survey data that we have in stock 00:49:03.459 --> 00:49:10.459 those on our own galaxy anand until he sees further away from us 00:49:13.359 --> 00:49:16.429 school the slow moving test is on the internet 00:49:16.429 --> 00:49:22.029 and we did astronomers have identifying millions of users to unknown stars and 00:49:22.029 --> 00:49:23.289 galaxies 00:49:23.289 --> 00:49:25.520 you want to call on the fifteenth of these 00:49:25.520 --> 00:49:32.089 for statistical actions which we proved disprove or even suggested new theories 00:49:32.089 --> 00:49:37.049 so we have decided it galaxies grounding becomes florence county cities like the 00:49:37.049 --> 00:49:38.879 one we live in a teammate 00:49:38.879 --> 00:49:44.329 uh... not all at once we're not smoothly specter five continuously 00:49:44.329 --> 00:49:46.629 incorporating beasley cannibalizing 00:49:46.629 --> 00:49:50.499 of smaller galaxies be dissolved and then they become part of under the 00:49:50.499 --> 00:49:55.469 guidance systems 00:49:55.469 --> 00:50:01.689 is a startling idea and you still need to is the evidence to support 00:50:01.689 --> 00:50:06.469 groups of stars that came from cannibalized galaxies stunned often 00:50:06.469 --> 00:50:07.799 assume they kept 00:50:07.799 --> 00:50:13.479 artistically different prabhat the stars because they move acted different 00:50:13.479 --> 00:50:15.219 each day despite 00:50:15.219 --> 00:50:17.719 when one of these distribution graphs 00:50:17.719 --> 00:50:19.490 means professional policy 00:50:19.490 --> 00:50:24.459 has found a group of stars or travelling in a different way to the list 00:50:24.459 --> 00:50:29.689 error that tell-tale patterns she's looking for 00:50:29.689 --> 00:50:32.039 the evidence is accumulating 00:50:32.039 --> 00:50:36.449 uh... this really is how galaxies girl born in portland int l tells his ground 00:50:36.449 --> 00:50:40.349 and so this is an important part of of understanding how galaxies form not only 00:50:40.349 --> 00:50:45.679 are posted every gals 00:50:45.679 --> 00:50:49.449 more database the more discoveries can be made 00:50:49.449 --> 00:50:52.390 and the technology is getting better all the 00:50:52.390 --> 00:50:56.549 the next big survey telescope starts at seventeen twenty fifty 00:50:56.549 --> 00:50:59.939 do you still need docs 00:50:59.939 --> 00:51:06.939 slowed mistaken eighty years still covered one quarter of the night sky 00:51:06.989 --> 00:51:08.250 the new tenants 00:51:08.250 --> 00:51:10.899 with gandhi and tires scott 00:51:10.899 --> 00:51:12.909 in even greater to resolution 00:51:12.909 --> 00:51:19.909 every three days 00:51:23.589 --> 00:51:26.559 the foster mom something still we have today 00:51:26.559 --> 00:51:30.389 allows researchers inform sorts of fields 00:51:30.389 --> 00:51:33.150 test this theory is on the previously i mean 00:51:33.150 --> 00:51:35.619 mentioned in this case 00:51:35.619 --> 00:51:39.150 but more than this it's many even change that 00:51:39.150 --> 00:51:42.639 condiment in ways insist 00:51:42.639 --> 00:51:45.350 with the power of today's computers up 00:51:45.350 --> 00:51:47.659 plied to all these things too 00:51:47.659 --> 00:51:54.659 and she was might even able to try to convince 00:52:04.130 --> 00:52:05.840 potentially profoundly in 00:52:05.840 --> 00:52:06.799 portant 00:52:06.799 --> 00:52:10.169 potential and the significance 00:52:10.169 --> 00:52:13.279 princeton science person even the most exciting 00:52:13.279 --> 00:52:14.979 waste 00:52:14.979 --> 00:52:19.329 the potential to transform officer powell scientist do science but even 00:52:19.329 --> 00:52:23.989 more sciences possible on what will come with a constellation court 00:52:23.989 --> 00:52:28.049 both house and she's done for the war science as possible discreetly 00:52:28.049 --> 00:52:31.939 compensation 00:52:31.939 --> 00:52:36.609 many of the dynamics of the natural world nike interplay between the rain 00:52:36.609 --> 00:52:41.109 forest and the atmosphere are still complex but we don't answer the agreed 00:52:41.109 --> 00:52:42.769 on the staff 00:52:42.769 --> 00:52:47.299 now computers are generating literally tens of thousands of different 00:52:47.299 --> 00:52:53.349 simulations the hoa fees biological systems might work dislike creating 00:52:53.349 --> 00:52:58.579 thousands of a hypothetical part of the world's each and every one of the 00:52:58.579 --> 00:53:04.249 simulations his analyzed with statistics to see if any part of good match will 00:53:04.249 --> 00:53:07.209 report is observed in nature 00:53:07.209 --> 00:53:11.059 the computers can now put domestic degenerate 00:53:11.059 --> 00:53:13.059 and discard hypothesis 00:53:13.059 --> 00:53:17.679 with scarcely humans 00:53:17.679 --> 00:53:21.799 east new application six six 00:53:21.799 --> 00:53:24.409 often divided for future science 00:53:24.409 --> 00:53:26.279 is creating a new 00:53:26.279 --> 00:53:28.709 paradigm if you like 00:53:28.709 --> 00:53:31.889 in science midway between conducive names 00:53:31.889 --> 00:53:34.599 which is increasingly 00:53:34.599 --> 00:53:37.509 between my country rises 00:53:37.509 --> 00:53:40.219 data centric or data driven 00:53:40.219 --> 00:53:41.190 ryland being 00:53:41.190 --> 00:53:43.979 hypothesis driven or experiment retreat 00:53:43.979 --> 00:53:47.960 so is exciting times in terms of the science in terms of that 00:53:47.960 --> 00:53:49.829 computations 00:53:49.829 --> 00:53:56.829 and in terms of the statistics 00:53:58.319 --> 00:54:02.069 now we thought that sounds a bit abstract inferior to continue 00:54:02.069 --> 00:54:04.719 how about one final frontier 00:54:04.719 --> 00:54:10.609 good statistics even make sense of your feelings 00:54:10.609 --> 00:54:11.859 in california 00:54:11.859 --> 00:54:17.179 wariness one computer scientist is harvesting the internet to try to do you 00:54:17.179 --> 00:54:24.179 find the patterns alvaro innermost thoughts and emotions 00:54:33.960 --> 00:54:36.620 well this is the madness with madison 00:54:36.620 --> 00:54:40.259 represents a skyscraper views the world 00:54:40.259 --> 00:54:42.060 each of these brightly colored dots 00:54:42.060 --> 00:54:43.979 is an individual feelings 00:54:43.979 --> 00:54:45.779 expressed by someone out there 00:54:45.779 --> 00:54:47.989 blog artery 00:54:47.989 --> 00:54:50.630 and when you click on a diet explodes 00:54:50.630 --> 00:54:53.779 to have revealed the underlying feelings doctors 00:54:53.779 --> 00:54:56.910 this is what people say they're feeling 00:54:56.910 --> 00:55:01.319 batter 00:55:01.319 --> 00:55:08.319 well 00:55:14.989 --> 00:55:18.230 so every minute we feel fine calls the world's blogs 00:55:18.230 --> 00:55:22.399 case all the sentences that start with the words aren't feeling feel 00:55:22.399 --> 00:55:25.229 interest them in the database 00:55:25.229 --> 00:55:27.009 we collect all the feelings 00:55:27.009 --> 00:55:29.199 and week at the most common 00:55:29.199 --> 00:55:36.199 they're better 00:55:37.819 --> 00:55:39.359 the same 00:55:39.359 --> 00:55:40.989 lecture 00:55:40.989 --> 00:55:47.729 sorry 00:55:47.729 --> 00:55:50.859 and we can take a look at anyone feeling in analyzing 00:55:50.859 --> 00:55:54.109 right now a lot of people are feeling happy 00:55:54.109 --> 00:55:56.599 we can take a look at all the people who are happy 00:55:56.599 --> 00:56:00.369 and breakdown by age gender or location 00:56:00.369 --> 00:56:04.279 says bloggers have public profiles we have that information and so we can ask 00:56:04.279 --> 00:56:05.609 questions like 00:56:05.609 --> 00:56:08.149 are women happier than men 00:56:08.149 --> 00:56:15.149 isn't happy with that the united states 00:56:19.189 --> 00:56:21.150 we find that as people get older 00:56:21.150 --> 00:56:23.579 make you happier 00:56:23.579 --> 00:56:25.400 and moreover we find that 00:56:25.400 --> 00:56:27.209 for younger people 00:56:27.209 --> 00:56:28.820 this as the happiness 00:56:28.820 --> 00:56:30.899 more with exciting 00:56:30.899 --> 00:56:32.809 and as people get water 00:56:32.809 --> 00:56:39.809 this essay happiness more peaceful 00:56:40.619 --> 00:56:44.679 and we also find that women feel love tomorrow 00:56:44.679 --> 00:56:46.969 also more guilty 00:56:46.969 --> 00:56:49.929 moments could more often than women 00:56:49.929 --> 00:56:56.049 about someone 00:56:56.049 --> 00:56:59.269 as people even more and more of their lives on line 00:56:59.269 --> 00:57:01.749 really behind digital traces 00:57:01.749 --> 00:57:03.919 and with these digital traces 00:57:03.919 --> 00:57:07.210 became deeply into the statistic re-energize 00:57:07.210 --> 00:57:14.210 what it means to be sure 00:57:40.689 --> 00:57:43.199 so where does all of this leave office 00:57:43.199 --> 00:57:47.889 we generate i mean mention of the quantities of data about everything you 00:57:47.889 --> 00:57:49.289 can think of 00:57:49.289 --> 00:57:52.099 analyzing to review the at it's 00:57:52.099 --> 00:57:53.239 amount 00:57:53.239 --> 00:57:56.259 not only expert but all of us 00:57:56.259 --> 00:58:03.259 understand the stories in the mail 00:58:07.139 --> 00:58:12.619 instead of being led astray by prejudice with statistics at our fingertips 00:58:12.619 --> 00:58:18.039 alliance can be opened for a fact based you whatever 00:58:18.039 --> 00:58:23.479 more than every before we can become all sorts of are all the best it's pretty 00:58:23.479 --> 00:58:30.479 exciting isn't it 00:58:30.759 --> 00:58:31.939 stay here 00:58:31.939 --> 00:58:38.939 the with 00:58:40.929 --> 00:58:47.929 he indeed 00:58:53.599 --> 00:58:53.979 seyi