[Script Info] Title: [Events] Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The world we live in is awashed with data Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that comes pouring in from everywhere around us. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,On it own, this data is just noise and confusion. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To make sense of data, to find the meaning in it, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we need a powerful branch of science: statistics. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Believe me, there's nothing boring about statistics Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,especially not today, when we can make the data sing. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,With statistics we can really make sense of the world. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Are statistics, the data diluge as it's been called, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,leading us to a greater understanding Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the life on Earth and the world beyond? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thanks to incredible power of today's computers Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it may fundamentally transform the process of scientific discovery. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I kid you not, statistics is now the sexiest subject around. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Did you know that there's is one million boats in Sweden? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's one boat per nine people. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's the highest number of boats per person in Europe. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Being statistician, you don't like telling your profession at dinner parties, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but really, statisticians shouldn't be shy Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because they always want to understand what's going on. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Stastistics gives us a persperctive of the world we live in Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we can't get in any other way. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Statistics tells us whether the things we think and believe are actually true. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Statistics are far more useful than we usually like to admit. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the last recession, there was this famous call into Talk Radio Station. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The man complained: "in times like this, when unemployment rates are up to 13%, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and income has fallen by 5%, and suicide rates are climbing, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I get so angry that the government is wasting money on things like correctional statistics." Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm not oficially a statistician, strictly speaking my field is global health. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I got really obsessed with stats, when I realised how many people in Sweden Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,don't know anything about the rest of the world. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I started in our Medical University in Karolinksa Institute, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an ungraduate course called Global Health. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These students coming to us have actually the highest grades you can get in theSwedish college system. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I thought maybe they know everything I'm going to teach them. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I did a pre-test when they came. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One of the questions, from which I learnt a lot, was: Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Which country has the highest child mortality of these five pairs? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I won't put you at test here, but it's Turkey which is higher there, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Poland, Russia, Pakistan and South Africa. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And these were the results of the Swedish students. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,1.8 answers right out of 5 possible, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that means that there was a place for a professor in International Health Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and for my course. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But one late night when I was compiling my report Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I really realise my discovery. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I have shown that Swedish top students know Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,statistically significantly less about the world than the chimpanzees. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Beacuse the chimpanzee would score half right. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If I gave them two bananas with Sri Lanka and Turkey Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they would be right half of the cases. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the students are not there. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I did also an unethical study of the professors of the Karolinska Institute Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that hands out the Nobel Prize in Medicine, and they aren't on par with the chimpanzee. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Today, there's more information accesible than ever before, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I work with my team at the Gapminder Foundation Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,using new tools that help everyone make sense of the changing world. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We draw on the masses of data that are now free available Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from international institutions like the UN and the World Bank. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's become my mission to share my insights from this data Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with anyone who listen, and to reveal how statistics \Nis nothing to be frightened of. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm going to provide you a view \Nof the global health situation across mankind, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I'm going to do that in a hopefully enjoyable way. \NSo relax. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We did this software which displays it like this, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,every bubble here is a country, this is China, this is India. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The size of the bubble is the population. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I'm going to stage a race here Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,between this sort of yellow Ford here, and the red Toyota down there, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the brownish Volvo. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Toyota has a very bad start down here, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and United States' Ford is going off road there, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the Volvo is doing quite fine, this is the war, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they Toyota got off crack, now Toyota is coming on the healthier side of Sweden. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's the point when I sold the Volvo and bought the Toyota. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the Great Leap Forward when China fell down, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it was central planning by Mao Tse Tung, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China recovered and said "never more stupid central planning", but they went up here. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No, there was one more inequity, look there! United States! Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Oh, they broke my frame! Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Washington D.C. is so rich over there, but it's not as healthy as Kerala, India. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's quite interesting, isn't it? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Welcome to the USA, world leaders in big cars Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and free data. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are many here who share my vision Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of making public data accesible and useful for everyone. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The city of San Francisco is in the lead, opening up it's data on everything. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Even the Police Dept. is releasing all it's crime reports. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This official crime data has been turned into a wonderful inteactive map Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by two of the cities computer whizzes. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's community statistics in action. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Crimespotting is a map of crime reports Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from the San Francisco Police Dept. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,showing dots on maps for citizens to be able to see patterns of crime Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in their neighbourhoods in San Francisco. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The map is not just about individual crimes Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but about broader patterns that show \Nyou where crime is clustered around the city, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which have high crime, \Nwhich areas have relatively low crime. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're here at top of Jones Street, on uphill, \Nquite a nice neighbourhood Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what the crime maps show us is the relationship between typography and crime. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The higher up the hill, the less crime there is. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We crossed over the border into the flats. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Essentially, as soon as you get into the kind of lower line areas of Jones street, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the crime just skyrockets. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we're in the uptown Tenderloin District, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's one of the oldest and most dangerous \Nneighbourhoods in San Francisco. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is where you go to buy drugs, \Nright around here. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You see lots of aggreviated assault,\Nlots of thefts. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Basically, the huge part of the crime of the city \Nhappens right in these four or six block areas. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you've been hearing police sirens\Nin your neighbourhood, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can use the map to find out why. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you are out at night in an unfamiliar part of town Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can check the map for streets to avoid. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If a neighbour gets burglared, you can see, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is it the one off or has there been a spike in local crime? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you commute through a neighbourhood and you're worried about its safety Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the fact that we have the ability to turn off all the night time and middle-of-the-day crimes Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and show you just the things that are happening during your commute, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is a statistical operation but I think to the people \Nthat are interacting with the thing Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it feels very much more like \Nthey just are sort of browsing a website Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or shopping on Amazon. \NThey're looking at data, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they don't realise that they're doing statistics. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What's most exciting for me is that public statistics Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is making citizens more powerful \Nand the authorities more accountable. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have community meetings that the police attend Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what citizens are now doing, \Nthey're bringing printouts of the maps Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to show where crimes are taking place, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they're demanding services \Nfrom the police department, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is now having to change how they please, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how they provide policing services, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the data is showing \Nwhat is working and what is not. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People in San Francisco are also using public data Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to map social inequalities, \Nand see how to improve society Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the possibilities are endless. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our dream would be that the government announced that Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this data project would really focus on live information Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on stuff that was being reported \Nand pushed out into the world as it was happening. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Trash pickup, traffic accidents, buses, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and through the kind of the stats gathering power on the internet Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's posible to really see the workings of the city Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,displayed as a unified interface. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's where we are heading, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,towards a world of free data \Nwith all the statistical insights that come from it Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,accesible to everyone, empowering us as citizens Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and letting hold our rulers to account. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a long way from where statistics began. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Statistics are essential to monitor our government in our societies. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But, it was our rulers out there who started the collection of statistics Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in first place in order to monitor us. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact the word statistics comes from state. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Modern statistics began two centuries ago. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Once it got going it spread and never stopped. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And guess who was first. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Chinese have Confucious, \Nthe Italians have Da Vinci, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the British have Shakespeare, and we have the Tabellverket Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the first ever systematic collection of statistics. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Since the year 1749 we have collected data on every birth, marriage and death Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we are proud of it. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Tabellverket recorded information from every parish in Sweden. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was a huge quantity of data\Nand it was the first time any goverment Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,could get any accurate picture of its people. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Sweden had been the greatest military power in Northern Europe Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but by 1749 our star was really fading and other countries were growing stronger. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At least though, we were a large power, thought to have 20 million people Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,enough to rival Britain and France. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But we were in for a nasty surprise. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The first analysis of Tabellverket revealed that Sweden only had 2 million inhabitants. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Sweden was not only a power in decline, it also had a very small popoulation. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The government was horrified by this finding. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What if the enemy found out? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the Tabellverket also showed that many women die in childbirth. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And many children died young, and government took action to improve the health of the people. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That was the beginning of modern Sweden. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It took more than 50 years before the Austrians, Belgiums, Danes, Dutch, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Germans, Italians and finally the British caught up with Sweden Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in collecting and using statistics. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was called political arithmethic, \Nand it was a lovely phrase as use for statistics. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Governments could have much more control \Nand understanding of the society Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how it's working, how it's developing, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and essentially, so they could control it better. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It wasn't just governments \Nwho woke up to the power of statistics. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Right across Europe, 19th century society went mad for facts. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And despite its late start, Britain with its Royal Statistical Society in London Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was soon a statisticians' nirvana. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I love looking at old copies of the Royal Statistical Society, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because is full of this stuff. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's a wonderful paper from the 1840s Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which shows a map of England \Nand the rates of bastardy of each county Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so you can identify very quickly the areas \Nwith high areas of bastardy. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Being in East Anglia makes me slightly laugh Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that Norfolk was on top of the bastardy league in the 1840s. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One of the founders of the Royal Statistical Society Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was the great victorian mathematician and inventor Charles Babbage. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In 1842 he read the latest poem \Nby a equally great victorian Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Alfred Tennyson. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Vision of Sin" contained the lines: Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Fill the cup and fill the can, \NHave a rouse before the morn. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Every moment dies a man, \NEvery moment one is born." Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So keen statistician was Babbage \Nthat he could not contain himself. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He dashed a letter to Tennyson\Nexplaining that because of population growth Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the line should read: Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Every moment dies a man, \NAnd 11/16 is born." Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"I may add that the exact figure is 1.167 Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but something must be conceded \Nto the laws of metre." Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the 19th century scholars all over Europe Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,did an amazing work in measuring the societies. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They hovered up data in almost everything Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but numbers alone don't tell you anything Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you have to analyse them, and that's what makes statistics. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When the first statisticians began \Nto get to grips with analysing their data Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they seized upon the average, \Nand they took the average of everything. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What's so great about an average\N Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that you can take a whole mass of data and reduce it to a single number. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Though each of us is unique, \Nour collective lives produce averages Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that characterise whole populations. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I look to my local newspaper one week Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and saw that a pensioner had accidently \Nput a foot on the accelerator Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and crashed her friend against the wall. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Devastating, hideous, horrible thing to happen. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there was a second one about a young man\Nwho didn't have a driving licence Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who was driving a car under the influence\Nof drugs and alcohol Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and crashed into a pedestrian and killed him. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What is remarkable,\Nabsolutely remarkable, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you look at the number of people \Nwho die each year Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in traffic accidents, \Nit's nearly a constant. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,All these individual events, \Nsomehow when you sum them all up Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's the same number every year, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and every year two and a half times\Nas many men die Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in traffic accidents as women,\Nand it's a constant. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,An every year the rate in Belgium is double Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the rate in England, \Nthere are these remarkable regularities Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so that these individual particular events\Nsum up into a social phenomenon. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Lecture) Let's see what Sweden has done Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we used to boast of fast social progress. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Narration) In my lectures, \Nto tell stories about the changing world Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I use averages for entire countries, \Nwhether the average for income, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,child mortality, family size or carbon output. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Lecture) OK, I give you Singapore, \Nthe year I was born. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Singapore had twice the child mortality of Sweden. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The most tropical country in the world. \NA marshland on the Equator. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And here we go. It took a little time for them to get independence Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they started to grow their economy, \Nand they made the social investments, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they got away malaria, \Nthey got a magnificient health system Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that beats both UkKs and Sweden's. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We thought it would never happened \Nbut they would win over Sweden! Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But useful as averages are\Nthey don't tell you the whole story. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,On average, Swedish people have slightly \Nless than two legs. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That is because a few people have one leg\Nor no legs, and no one has three legs Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so almost everybody in Sweden\Nhas more than the average number of legs. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The variation in data is just\Nas important as the average. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But how do you get the handle on variation? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For this you transform numbers into shapes. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's llok again at the number of adult women \Nin Sweden for different heights. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Plotting the data as a shape shows us \Nhow much their heights vary from the average Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and how wide that variation is. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The shape a set of data makes \Nis called its distribution. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Lecture) This is the income distribution\Nof China 1970 Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the income distribution\Nof the United States 1970. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Almost no overlap. And what has happened? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China is growing. It's not so equal any longer. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's appearing here, \Noverlooking the United States Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,almost like a ghost, isn't it? It's scary! Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That statistician who first explored distribution\N Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,discovered one shape that turned up \Nagain and again Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the victorian scholar Francis Goldtone\Nwas so fascinated Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he built a machine that could reproduce it Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he found it fitted so many different\Nsets of measurements Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that he named it the Normal Distribution. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Whether it was people's arm spans, land capacity or even their exam results Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Normal Distribution shape recurred \Ntime and time again. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the statisticians soon found\Nmany other regular shapes Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,each produced by a certain kind of natural or social processes. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And every statistician has their favourite. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Poisson distribution, I think it's my favourite, \Nit's absolute crack. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Poisson shape, describes how likely it is \Nthat out-of-the-ordinary things will happen. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Imagine a London bus stop that we know\Nthat on average will get three buses an hour. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We won't always get three buses of course. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Amazingly the Poisson shape will show us \Nthe probability that in any given hour Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will get 4, 5 or 6 buses or no buses at all. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The exact shape changes with the average Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but whether it is how many people will \Nwin the lottery jackpot each week Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or how many people will phone \Na call centre each minute Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Poisson shape will give the probabilities. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The wonderful example where this does apply \Nis in the late 19th century Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was to count each year the number \Nof Prussian officers Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,cavalry officers that had be kicked \Nto death by their horses Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Some year there were none, some years one, \Nsome years two,... up to seven. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One particularly bad year. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But with this distribution, how many years they go, one, two three, four, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Prussian cavalry officers kicked to death\Nby their horses Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,beautifully obbey the Poisson distribution. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So statisticians use shapes so we wield the patterns in the data Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but we also use images of all kinds to communicate statistics to a wider public Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because if the story in the numbers is told by a beautiful and clever image Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then everyone understands. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Of the pioneers of statiscal graphics, my favourite is Florence Nightingale. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are not many people who realise that actually she was known as a passionate statistician Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and not just the Lady of the Lamp. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,She said that to understand God's thoughts we must study statistics Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for these are the measure of His purpose. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Statistics must reserve a religious studio moral imperative. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When Florence was nine years old, \Nshe started collecting data. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Her data was different fruits and vegetables she found. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Put them into different tables, \Ntrying to organise them in some standard form, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so we have one of the Nightgale's first \Nstatistical tables at the age of nine. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the mid-1850s, Florence Nightingale went to Crimea Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to care for British casualties at war. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,She was horrified by what she discovered. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For all the soldiers being blown to bits on the battlefield Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there were many many more soldiers \Ndying from diseases Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,caught in the army's filthy hospitals. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So Florence Nightingale bagan counting the dead. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For two years she recorded mortality data \Nin meticulous detail. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When the war was over, \Nshe persuaded the government Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to set up a Royal Comission of Enquiry. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And gathered her data in a devastating report. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What has amended her place in the statistically\Nhistory books is the graphics she used. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And one in particular, the Polar Area Graph. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For each month of the war,\Na huge blue wedge represented the soldiers Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who had died of preventable diseases. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The much smaller red wedges \Nwere deaths from wounds, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the black wedges deaths \Nfrom accidents and other causes. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nightingale graphics were so clear, \Nthey were impossible to ignore. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The usual thing around Florence Nightingale's time Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was just to produce tables and tables of figures.\NAbsolutely tedious stuff. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Unless you are a dedicated statistician, \Nit's quite difficult to spot the patterns naturally. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But visualisations tell a story. \NThey tell a story immediately. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The use of colour, the use of shape, \Ncan really tell a powerful story. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And these days, we can make things move as well. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Florence Nightingale would've loved to play with it, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,she would've produced wonderful animations, \NI'm absolutely certain about it. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Today, a hundred and fifty years on, \N Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nightingale's graphics are rightly \Nregarded as a classic. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They led to a revolution in nursing and health care, \Nin hygiene in hospitals worldwide. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We've saved innumerable lives. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Statistical graphics has become\Nan art of its very own. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Led by designers who are passionate \Nabout visualising data. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the Billion Pound O Gram. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This image arouse out of the frustration \Nwith the reporting Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of billion-pounds amounts in the media. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,500 trillion pounds for this war, \N50 million pounds for this hospital, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this does not make sense,\Nthese figures are too enormous to get your mind around. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I squailed to this data from various news sources\Nand created this diagram Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so the squares here are scaled\Naccording the the billion-pound amounts. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When you see numbers visualised like this,\N Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you start to have a different \Nkind of relationship with them. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can see patterns, see the scale of them. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here, this little square, 37 billion, \Nthis was the predicted cost of the Iraq war in 2003. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As you can see it has grown exponentially\Nover the last few years Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the total cost of about 2,500 billion. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's funny because when you visualise statistics \Nlike this, you undestand them. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And when you understand them,\Nyou can put things into perspective. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Visualisation is right at the heart of my own work too. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I teach Global Health. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I know that having the data is not enough, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I have to show it in ways people \Nboth enjoy and undestand. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now I'm going to try something \NI've never done before. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Animating the data in real space. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,With a bit of technical assistance \Nfrom the crew. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So here we go! Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,First an axis for health, \Nlife expectancy from 25 years to 75 years. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Down here an axis for wealth, \Nincome per person, $400, $4,000 and $40,000. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So down here is poor and sick.\NAnd up here is rich and healthy. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now I'm going to show you the world \N200 years ago, in 1810. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here come all the countries: \NEurope brown, Asia red, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Middle East green, Africa South-of-Sahara blue, \Nand America is yellow. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the size of the country bubble \Nshows the size of the population. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in 1810 it was pretty crowded down there, isn't it? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,All countries were sick and poor, \Nlife expectancy would be below 40 in all countries. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Only the UK and the Netherlands \Nwere slightly better off, but not much. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And now, I'll start the world! Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Industrial Revolution makes countries in Europe and elsewhere move away from the rest. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the colonised countries in Asia and Africa \Nare stuck down there. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Eventually the Western countries \Nget healthier and healthier. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now we slow down to see the impact\Nof the First World War and the Spanish Flu Epidemy. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What a catastrophe! Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now I'll speed up through the 1920s and 1930s Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and spite of the Great Depression, Western countries fueled on towards greater wealth and health. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Japan and some others try to follow\Nbut most countries stay down here. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,After the tragedies of the Second World War Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we stop a bit to look at the world in 1948. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,1948 was a great year, the war was over,\NSweden topped the medal table at the Winter Olympics, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I was born, but the differences between \Nthe countries of the world was wider than ever. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,United States was in the front, \NJapan was catching up, Brasil was way behind, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Iran was getting a little richer from oil, \Nbut still had short lives. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Asian giants, China, India,\NPakistan, Bangladesh and Indonesia, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they were still poor and sit down here. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But look what is about to happen. In my lifetime,\Nformer colonies gained independence Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and finally they started to get healthier,\Nand healthier, and healthier. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in the 1970s, \Ncountries in Asia and Latin America Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,started to catch up with the Western countries. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They became the emerging economies. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Some in Africa follow, some in Africa \Nare stuck in civil wars, and others are hit by HIV. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And now we can see the world today, \Nin the most up-to-date statistics. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Most people today live in the middle, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but here are huge differences at the same time\N Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,between the best of countries \Nand the worst of countries Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and there are also huge inequalities within countries. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These bubbles show country averages,\Nbut I can split them. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Take China, I can split it into provinces. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There goes Shanghai, \Nit has the same health and wealth as Italy today. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then there's the poor inland province of Guizhou. It's like Pakistan. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if I split it further, \Nthe rural parts are like Ghana in Africa. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And yet, despite the enormous disparities today,\Nwe have seen 200 years of remarkable progress. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That huge historical gap between \Nthe West and the rest is now closing. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have become an entirely new converging world. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I see a clear trend into the future,\Nwith aid, trade, green technology and peace. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's fully possible that everyone \Ncan make it to the healthy-wealthy corner. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What you've just seen in the last few minutes\Nis a story of 200 countries Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,shown over 200 years and beyond. \NIt involved plotting 120,000 numbers. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Pretty neat, eh? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,With statistics we can start to see things \Nas they really are. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,From tables of data, to averages, \Ndistributions and visualisations, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,statistics gives us a clear description of the world. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But with statistics we can not only \Ndiscover what is happening Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but also explore why, by using \Nthe powerful analytical method of correlation. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Just looking at one thing at a time\Ndoesn't tell you very much. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You have to look at the relationships between things.\N Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How they change. How they vary together.\NThat's what correlation is about. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's how we start to understand\Nthe processes that are really going on Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the world and in socierty. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Most of us would recognise today that crime\Ncorrelates to poverty, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that infection correlates to poor sanitasion, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that knowledge of statistics correlates \Nto being great at dancing. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Correlations can be very tricky. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I've got a joke about silly correlations. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This was this American \Nwho was afraid of heart attack. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He found out that the Japanese ate very little fat,\Nand almost didn't drink wine, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and have much less heart attacks than the American. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But on the other hand, he found out that the French\Neat as much fat as the Americans Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they drink much more wine, but they also have less heart attacks. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so he concluded that what kills you \Nis speaking English. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The best example of \Na really ground-breaking correlation Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was the link that was established in the 1950s\Nbetween smoking and lung cancer. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not long after the Second World War,\Na British doctor, Richard Doll, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,investigated lung cancer patients\Nin twenty London hospitals, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he became certain that \Nthe only thing they had in common was smoking Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so certain that he stopped smoking himself. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But other people weren't so sure. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Lots of the discussion of early data \Nlinking smoking and lung cancer Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it can't be smoking, surely, that thing \Nwe've done all our lives, that can't be bad for you. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Maybe it's genes, maybe people \Nwho are genetically predisposed to get lung cancer Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are also genetically predisposed to smoke. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Maybe it's not the smoking, \Nmaybe it's air pollution, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that smokers and somehow more exposed to air pollution than non-smokers. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Maybe it's not smoking, maybe it's poverty. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So now we have three possible explanations \Napart from chance. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To verify his correlation did imply cause and effect Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Richard Doll created \Nthe biggest statistical study of smoking yet Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He began tracking the lives of 40,000 British doctors Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,some of whom smoked, some of whom didn't. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And gathered enough data to correlate \Nthe amount of doctors who smoked Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with their likelihood of getting cancer. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Eventually, he did not only show a correlation \Nbetween smoking and lung cancer Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but also a correlation between stopping smoking \Nand reducing the risk. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This was science at its best. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What correlations do not replace\Nis human thought. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We could think about what it means. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What a good scientist does \Nif he comes up with a correlation Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is try as hard as he or she possibly can \Nto disprove it Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to break it down, to get rid of it, \Nto try to refute it, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and if it withstands all those efforts \Nat demolishing it, and it still standing out, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then we might really have something here. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,However brilliants the scientists, \Ndata is still the oxygen of science. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The good news is that the more we have, \Nthe more correlations we'll find, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the more theories we'll test, \Nand the more discoveries we are likely to make. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And history shows how our total sum of information \Ngrows in huge leaps Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as we develop new technologies. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The invention of the printing press kicked off \Nthe first data and information explosion Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you piled up all the books that have been printed\Nby the year 1700 Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they would make sixty stacks,\Neach as high as Mount Everest. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then, starting in the 19th century,\Nthere came a second information revolution. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,With the telegraph, gramophone, camera, \Nand later radio and TV. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The total amount of information exploded. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And by the 1950s the information available to us all \Nhad multiplied six thousend times. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then, thanks to the computer,\Nand later the Internet, we went digital, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the amount of data we have now, \Nis unimaginably vast. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A single letter printed in a book \Nis the equivalent to a byte of data. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A single page \Nequals a kilobyte or two. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Five megabytes is enough \Nfor the complete works of Shakespeare. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,10 gigabytes, that's a DVD movie. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,2 terabytes is the tens of millions of photos \Nadded to Facebook everyday. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,10 petabytes is the data recorded every second\Nby the world's largest particle accelerator, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so much only a tiny fraction is kept. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,6 exabytes is what you'd have if you sequenced \Nthe genomes of every single person on Earth. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But really, that's nothing. \NIn 2009, the Internet added up to 600 exabytes, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in 2010, in just one year, that will double to more than one zettabyte. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But in the real world, \Nif we turned all this data into print Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it would make ninety stacks of books,\Neach reaching from here all the way to the Sun. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The data deluge is staggering. \NBut with today's computers and statistics, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm confident we can handle it. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When it comes to all the data on the Internet, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the powerhouse of statistical analysis\Nis the Sillicon Valley giant Google. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The average person over their lifetime Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is exposed to about a hundred million words\Nof conversation. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if you multiply that \Nby the six billion people on the planet Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that amount of words is equal to the amount of words Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that Google has available at any one instant of time. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Google's computers hoover up and file away\N Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,every document, web page \Nand image they can find. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then they hunt for patterns and correlations\Nin all this data Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,doing statistics on a massive scale. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And for me, Google has one project\Nthat is particularly exciting: Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,statistical language translation. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you do want to provide access \Nto all the web's information Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,no matter what language is spoken. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's so much information on the Internet, \Nyou can not hope to tranlate it all by hand Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into every possible language, we figured \Nwe have to be able to do machine translation. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the past, programmers tried to teach their computers to see each language as a set of grammatical rules. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Much like languages are taught at school. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But this didn't work, because no set of rules\Ncould capture language in all its subtlety and ambiguity, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Having eaten out lunch, \Nthe coach departed. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's obviously incorrect. Written like that,\Nit would imply that the coach has eaten the lunch. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It would be far better to say: Having eaten our lunch,\Nwe departed in the coach. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those rules are helpful, \Nthey are useful most of the time, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they don't turn out to be true \Nall the time. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the insight of using \Nstatistical machine translation\N Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is saying: if we have all these exceptions anyways, maybe you can get by without having any rules, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,maybe we can treat everything as an exception,\Nand that's essentially what we've done. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What the computer is doing \Nwhen it's learning how to translate Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is to learn correlations between words\Nand between phrases Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so we feed the system \Nvery large amounts of data Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the the system sees if a certain word or phrase\Ncorrelates very often to the other language. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Google's website currently offers translation between any of 57 different languages. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It does this purely statistically,having correlated \Nthe huge collection of multilingual texts. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The people who built he system\Ndon't need to know Chinese Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in order to build the Chinese system.\NThey dont need to know Arabic. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The expertise that is needed is basically knowledge of statistics, of computer science, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of infrastructure, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to build these very large computer systems we are building for doing that. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I hooked up with Google from my office in Stockholm,\Nto try the translator by myself. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I will type some Swedish sentences. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Types in Swedish) Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Reads on the screen) Sweden's finance minister \Nhas a ponytail and a gold ring in your ear. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's almost exactly correct, it's amazing. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He comes from the conservative party, \Nthat's the kind of Sweden we have today. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I will type one more sentence. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In his same-sex parnertships has Stockholm's \Nnew bishop and his partners a three-year son. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's almost perfect, \Nthere's one important thing, it's "her". Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a lesbian partnership. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,OK, those kinds of words like "her"\Nare one of the challenges in translation, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to get those right. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When it comes to bishops, \None can excuse it. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Right, I think that more often than not \Nit would be probably a "his". Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I will write one more sentence. \N(Reads aloud in Swedish) Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When Sweden is taking part in Olympic gold, \Nis not to win but to beat Norway. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But they are very good in Winter Olympics,\Nso we can't make it, but we are trying. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Very good, very good. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is absolutely amazing, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I'm impressed that it picked up \Nwords like "same-sex partnerships" Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which are very due to the language. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The translator is good, but if it succeeds,\Nwhat will be next, that'll be remarkable. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One of the exciting possibilities is combining\Nthe machine translation technology Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,\Nwith the speech recognition technology. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Both of these are statistically neutre. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The machine translation relies on the statistics \Nof mapping from one language to another, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and similarly speech recognition relies on the statistics\Nof mapping from a sound form to the words. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When we put them together, \Nnow we have the capability Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of having instant conversations between two people who don't speak a common language. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I can talk to you in my language, \Nyou hear me in your language, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you can answer back in real time,\Nwe can make that translation, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can bring people together \Nand allow them to speak. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Internet is just one of many technologies\Ncreated to gather massives amount of data. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Scientists studying our Earth\Nand our environment Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,now use an incredible range of instruments\Nto measure the processes of our planet. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,All around us our sensors are continously measuring\Ntemperature, water flow and ocean currents. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,High in orbit our satellite is busy imaging cloud formations, forest growth and snow cover. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Scientists speak of instrumenting the Earth. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And pointing up to the skies above, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,our powerful new telescopes are mapping the Universe. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What's happening in astronomy, \Nis tipically how profoundly this torrent of data Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is transforming science. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Astronomers are now addressing \Nmany enduring misteries of the cosmos Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by applying statistical methods\Nto all this new data. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The galaxy is a very big place \Nand it has billions of starts in it Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so to put toghether a coherent picture \Nof the whole galaxy requires Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,having enourmous amounts of data, \Nand before you can do a large sky survey Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with sensitive digital detectors, \Nthat you can map many stars at once, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's very difficult to gather enough data \Nof enough of the galaxy. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the past, large surveys of the night sky\Nhad to be done Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by exposing thousands \Nof large photographic plates, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but these surveys could take 25 years \Nor more to complete. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then, in the 1990s, came digital astronomy, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a huge increase in both the amount\Nand the accesibility of data. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Sloan Sky Survey is the world's biggest yet Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,using a massive digital sensor mounted Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the back of a custom built telescope in New Mexico. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's scanned the sky night after night for eight years Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,building up a composite picture \Nin unprecedented resolution. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Sloan's is some of the best deepest survey data Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we have in astronomy, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,both in our galaxy and galaxies away from ours. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,All the Sloan data is on the Internet Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and with it astronomers have identified Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,millions of hidden unknown stars and galaxies. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They also comb the database for statistical patterns Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which will prove, disprove or suggest new theories. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we have this idea that galaxies grow Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they become large galaxies Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like the one we live in, the Milky Way. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not all at once, not smoothly Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but by continously incorporating Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,cannibalising smaller galaxies Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they dissolve them and become \Npart of the bigger galaxy Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a startling idea Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in the Sloan data there's the evidence to support it. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Groups of starts that came from cannibalised galaxies Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,stand out in the Sloan data statistically\Ndifferent from other stars. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because they move at a different velocity. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Each big spike of one of these distribution graphs Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,means professor Rockossi has found a group of stars Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all travelling in a different way to the rest. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They are the telltale patterns she's looking for. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The evidence is accumulating that in fact Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this really is how galaxies grow Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or an important way of how galaxies grow Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this is important to understand how galaxies form Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not only ours but every galaxy. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The more data there is \Nthe more discoveries can be made Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the technology is getting better all the time. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The next big survey telescope starts its work in 2015. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It will leave Sloan in the dust. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Sloan has taken 8 eight years \Nto cover one quarter of the nightsky. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The new telescope will scan the entire sky\Nin even greater resolution Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,every three days. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The vast amounts of data we have today Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,allows researchers in all sorts of fields Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to test their theories in a previously unimaginable scale Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it may even change the fundamental way \Nscience is done. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,With the power of todays' computers\Napplied to all this data Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the machines might be able to guide the researchers. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There is a profoundly important, \None of the most significant points in science Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,certainly one of the most exciting Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the potential to transform not only \Nhow scientists do science Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but what science is possibly. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What will power that transformation \Nof how science is done Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is going to be computation. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Many of the dynamics of the natual world Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like the interplay \Nbetween the rainforest and the atmosphere Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are so complex, that we don't yet\Nreally understand. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But now computers are generating \Ntens of thousands of simulations Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of how these biological systems might work. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Is like creating thousands of \Nhypothetical parellel worlds. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Each of these simulations is analysed with statistics Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to see if any are a good match\Nof what is observed in each. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The computers can now automatically generate, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,test and discard hypothesis \Nwith scarcely human insight. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This new application statistics will become Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,absolutely vital for the future of science. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's creating a new paradigm in the way we do science Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is characterised as data-centric or data-driven Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,rather than hypothesis- or experiment-driven. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's an exciting time in terms of science,\Ncomputation and statistics. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If all this sounds a bit abstract to you Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how about one final frontier? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Could statistics make sense of your feelings? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In California, (where else!), one computer scientist Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is harvesting the Internet to try to define the patterns Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of our innermost thoughts and emotions. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the Madness Movement Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it represents a skyscrapper's view of the world. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Each brightly coloured dot is an individual feeling Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,expressed by someone out there in a blog or a tweet Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and when you click on the dot Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it explodes to reveal \Nthe underlying feeling of that person. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is what people say they're feeling today: Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,better Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,safe Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,crappy Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,well Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,pretty Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,special Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sorry Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,alone Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Every minute WeFeelFine crosses the world's blogs Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,takes all the sentences that start \Nwith the words "I feel" or "I'm feeling" Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and push them into a database. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We collect all the feelings \Nand we count the most common Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,better Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,bad Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,good Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,right Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,guilty Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sick Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the same Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like shit Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sorry Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,well Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can take a look at any one feeling and analyse it. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Right now a lot of people are feeling happy. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can take a look at these people, \Nand break them down by age, gender or location. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Since bloggers have public profiles,\Nwe have that information Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we can ask questions like, \N"Are women happier than men?" Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or "Is England happier\Nthan the United States?" Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We find that as people get older, they get happier. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For younger people, \Nhappiness associates with excitement Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whereas older people associate happiness\Nmore with peacefulness. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We also find than women feel loved \Nmore often than men, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but also more guilty. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,While men feel good more often than women,\Nbut also more alone. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As people live more and more of their lives online Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they leave behind digital traces Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with which we can statistically analyse Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what it means to be human. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Where does all this leave us? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We generate unimaginable quantities of data Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,About everything you can think of Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we analyse it to reveal the patterns. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now not only experts but all of us can understand Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the stories in the numbers. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Instead of being led astray by prejudice Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with statistics at our fingertips, our eyes can be open Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for a facts-based view of the world. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,More than ever before we can become \Nauthors of our own destiny. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's pretty exciting isn't it? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Music)