WEBVTT 00:00:00.440 --> 00:00:03.107 (ominous music) 00:00:12.293 --> 00:00:15.419 - [Narrator] In the elementary school of Oguchi, Japan, 00:00:15.419 --> 00:00:19.586 the silence is more striking than the voices of children. 00:00:22.308 --> 00:00:24.283 In a spacious classroom commanding 00:00:24.283 --> 00:00:27.014 the undivided attention of his teacher, 00:00:27.014 --> 00:00:29.847 11-year-old Daiki Sato sits alone. 00:00:33.080 --> 00:00:35.848 Since kindergarten he's been the only student 00:00:35.848 --> 00:00:38.027 in his class because of a startling 00:00:38.027 --> 00:00:39.860 decline in birthrates. 00:00:41.638 --> 00:00:45.009 By the end of the century Japan's population is expected 00:00:45.009 --> 00:00:48.507 to shrink by half, with one out of every three 00:00:48.507 --> 00:00:49.757 people retired. 00:00:52.063 --> 00:00:53.980 And Japan is not alone. 00:00:56.052 --> 00:00:57.719 Over the next 50 years 00:00:57.719 --> 00:01:00.613 Europe is projected to lose 63 million 00:01:00.613 --> 00:01:04.280 people while Russia shrinks almost 20%, 00:01:06.584 --> 00:01:09.267 as elders over 60 outnumber children 00:01:09.267 --> 00:01:12.723 under four, the economic and social changes 00:01:12.723 --> 00:01:14.223 will be wrenching. 00:01:15.430 --> 00:01:17.649 - But we're talking about a society in the future that's 00:01:17.649 --> 00:01:20.704 never existed in past, one that is you know 00:01:20.704 --> 00:01:23.953 literally an old folks home so we know 00:01:23.953 --> 00:01:26.539 that the decline of many industrial 00:01:26.539 --> 00:01:29.706 countries is already written in stone. 00:01:30.651 --> 00:01:32.790 - [Narrator] Yet rising longevity is not just 00:01:32.790 --> 00:01:35.957 transforming the industrialized world, 00:01:37.083 --> 00:01:38.940 more children in developing countries 00:01:38.940 --> 00:01:41.523 are surviving than ever before. 00:01:43.505 --> 00:01:46.058 Today the largest generation of youth in 00:01:46.058 --> 00:01:48.408 history is entering their reproductive 00:01:48.408 --> 00:01:51.575 years igniting an explosion of births. 00:01:53.752 --> 00:01:57.871 As global population climbs from six to nine billion, 00:01:57.871 --> 00:02:02.038 the social and environmental strains will be enormous. 00:02:03.632 --> 00:02:06.732 Our world is now careening into completely different 00:02:06.732 --> 00:02:09.485 directions as youthful nations reel from 00:02:09.485 --> 00:02:13.652 rising numbers while old ones grapple with decline. 00:02:16.772 --> 00:02:19.032 - You see a huge generation gap across 00:02:19.032 --> 00:02:20.765 countries emerging that's going to 00:02:20.765 --> 00:02:23.278 translate into a more polarized world 00:02:23.278 --> 00:02:26.576 society and those disparities are 00:02:26.576 --> 00:02:29.159 potentially very destabilizing. 00:02:31.082 --> 00:02:34.539 Join us for a journey across four continents as 00:02:34.539 --> 00:02:37.006 we peer into the demographic divide 00:02:37.006 --> 00:02:39.773 reshaping our world and confronting us 00:02:39.773 --> 00:02:42.606 with stark choices for the future. 00:02:44.679 --> 00:02:48.269 World in the Balance, The People Paradox. 00:02:48.269 --> 00:02:49.602 Up next on Nova. 00:02:53.248 --> 00:02:56.415 (anticipatory music) 00:03:08.496 --> 00:03:11.444 - [Man] Major funding for Nova is provided by, 00:03:11.444 --> 00:03:13.742 the Park Foundation dedicated to 00:03:13.742 --> 00:03:16.492 education and quality television. 00:03:19.023 --> 00:03:23.269 - [Woman] Science, it's given us the framework to help make 00:03:23.269 --> 00:03:25.769 wireless communications clear. 00:03:26.969 --> 00:03:29.636 Sprint is proud to support Nova. 00:03:33.686 --> 00:03:35.936 - [Man] We see an inventor, 00:03:36.795 --> 00:03:39.682 at Microsoft your potential inspires us 00:03:39.682 --> 00:03:43.406 to create software that helps you reach it, 00:03:43.406 --> 00:03:45.739 your potential, our passion. 00:03:48.691 --> 00:03:52.547 - [Man] Funding for World in the Balance is provided by 00:03:52.547 --> 00:03:54.964 Marguerite and Jerry Lenfest, 00:03:56.122 --> 00:03:59.571 the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, 00:03:59.571 --> 00:04:01.756 the Richard and Rhoda Goldman Fund 00:04:01.756 --> 00:04:04.303 sponsor of the Goldman Environmental Prize 00:04:04.303 --> 00:04:07.524 and the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, 00:04:07.524 --> 00:04:08.824 major funding for Nova is 00:04:08.824 --> 00:04:11.773 also provided by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting 00:04:11.773 --> 00:04:15.419 and by PBS viewers like you, thank you. 00:04:15.419 --> 00:04:18.168 (calming music) 00:04:39.685 --> 00:04:41.290 - [Narrator] Deep in the heart of India, 00:04:41.290 --> 00:04:44.941 towers the Taj Mahal a lavish mausoleum built to 00:04:44.941 --> 00:04:47.656 honor a queen who died giving birth to 00:04:47.656 --> 00:04:48.906 her 14th child. 00:04:52.117 --> 00:04:54.343 It's a haunting symbol for a country 00:04:54.343 --> 00:04:56.439 that will soon surpass China as the 00:04:56.439 --> 00:04:57.272 world's most populous nation with over 00:04:57.272 --> 00:04:59.605 a billion and a half people. 00:05:04.764 --> 00:05:07.239 Beyond its walls lies the urban sprawl 00:05:07.239 --> 00:05:09.447 of India's fastest growing state, 00:05:09.447 --> 00:05:12.400 Uttar Pradesh with more people than all but 00:05:12.400 --> 00:05:14.567 four nations in the world. 00:05:16.345 --> 00:05:20.923 Its population of 177 million is crammed into an area 00:05:20.923 --> 00:05:22.673 the size of Colorado. 00:05:24.666 --> 00:05:28.833 Every three years its numbers swell by another 10 million 00:05:30.650 --> 00:05:32.900 yet the rapid growth here masks a 00:05:32.900 --> 00:05:35.298 stunning success across India where 00:05:35.298 --> 00:05:37.352 fertility has plummeted from an average 00:05:37.352 --> 00:05:40.269 of six children per woman to three, 00:05:41.363 --> 00:05:43.460 this trend offers hope that India's 00:05:43.460 --> 00:05:47.043 population might stop growing this century. 00:05:50.073 --> 00:05:52.098 But the outcome depends on whether 00:05:52.098 --> 00:05:54.269 the northern states can repeat the success 00:05:54.269 --> 00:05:56.637 of the south where birthrates are 00:05:56.637 --> 00:05:58.804 almost as low as Europe's. 00:06:00.970 --> 00:06:03.768 - And the south of India of course is very educated 00:06:03.768 --> 00:06:05.416 however the opposite is the case in the 00:06:05.416 --> 00:06:07.434 north and that's where India's 00:06:07.434 --> 00:06:10.016 demographic future really lies. 00:06:10.016 --> 00:06:12.600 In a state like Uttar Pradesh where women 00:06:12.600 --> 00:06:14.963 average about five children each in their 00:06:14.963 --> 00:06:18.306 lifetime and they have very high levels 00:06:18.306 --> 00:06:20.480 of illiteracy this is where the real 00:06:20.480 --> 00:06:24.480 battle for India's future is going to be fought. 00:06:26.159 --> 00:06:27.741 - [Narrator] If this battle isn't won within two 00:06:27.741 --> 00:06:30.425 decades India's population instead of 00:06:30.425 --> 00:06:33.758 stabilizing could nearly double by 2050. 00:06:36.734 --> 00:06:39.335 With US support Dr. Ravi Anand has 00:06:39.335 --> 00:06:41.313 organized a network of doctors across 00:06:41.313 --> 00:06:45.480 Uttar Pradesh to offer healthcare and family planning. 00:06:47.140 --> 00:06:47.973 - I would say this is a 00:06:47.973 --> 00:06:50.493 window of opportunity if we do not take 00:06:50.493 --> 00:06:53.902 all the measures that we can in every 00:06:53.902 --> 00:06:56.969 possible manner to check the population 00:06:56.969 --> 00:07:01.136 now then India will never be able to tackle this problem. 00:07:03.128 --> 00:07:04.203 - [Narrator] Yet Ravi is well 00:07:04.203 --> 00:07:06.261 aware that if progress is going to be 00:07:06.261 --> 00:07:09.761 made the lives of women here must improve. 00:07:11.597 --> 00:07:13.528 In the nearby slum she checks on 00:07:13.528 --> 00:07:15.822 a 30-year-old mother named Gooday who 00:07:15.822 --> 00:07:19.155 almost died delivering her eighth child, 00:07:20.724 --> 00:07:22.081 she was rushed to the hospital 00:07:22.081 --> 00:07:26.164 unconscious after three days of obstructed labor. 00:07:27.954 --> 00:07:29.864 - [Translator] So now tell me, I hear 00:07:29.864 --> 00:07:33.896 you had great problems with this birth. 00:07:33.896 --> 00:07:35.946 - [Translator] Terrible problems the midwife that 00:07:35.946 --> 00:07:38.498 delivered my other babies came but when 00:07:38.498 --> 00:07:40.808 she touched my belly she said this 00:07:40.808 --> 00:07:43.521 baby's life is in danger you must find 00:07:43.521 --> 00:07:46.271 the money to get to the hospital. 00:07:47.211 --> 00:07:49.358 - [Narrator] After delivering a baby girl 00:07:49.358 --> 00:07:52.091 Gooday begged doctors to be sterilized 00:07:52.091 --> 00:07:53.449 but she was overruled by her 00:07:53.449 --> 00:07:55.616 mother-in-law and husband. 00:07:56.480 --> 00:07:57.349 - She said she's 00:07:57.349 --> 00:07:59.783 petrified of another pregnancy and 00:07:59.783 --> 00:08:02.004 childbirth and she doesn't want to have 00:08:02.004 --> 00:08:04.104 another baby but she's the one who's 00:08:04.104 --> 00:08:06.992 least involved in this decision making 00:08:06.992 --> 00:08:09.418 and that is why we counsel the husband 00:08:09.418 --> 00:08:12.181 and the mother-in-law because we call 00:08:12.181 --> 00:08:15.848 them the gatekeepers to the health services. 00:08:18.416 --> 00:08:21.425 - [Translator] So I hear you want a second son. 00:08:21.425 --> 00:08:24.907 - [Translator] I need at least one more. 00:08:24.907 --> 00:08:26.639 - [Translator] If you have only one son, 00:08:26.639 --> 00:08:30.282 and isn't one son good enough for you? 00:08:30.282 --> 00:08:31.415 - [Translator] He's 40 years old 00:08:31.415 --> 00:08:34.248 and he is the only son left alive. 00:08:35.147 --> 00:08:37.124 - [Translator] And daughters? 00:08:37.124 --> 00:08:38.562 - [Translator] I have three daughters but 00:08:38.562 --> 00:08:42.571 they have gone to live with their husband's families. 00:08:42.571 --> 00:08:44.802 - [Translator] Listen today one son 00:08:44.802 --> 00:08:47.469 is just as much as you may need. 00:08:48.784 --> 00:08:51.562 - One of the major reasons for the family size to 00:08:51.562 --> 00:08:54.250 be really large in Northern India is the 00:08:54.250 --> 00:08:57.567 son preference because it's the son who 00:08:57.567 --> 00:09:00.322 stays with the family and he's expected 00:09:00.322 --> 00:09:03.943 to look after his old parents and girls 00:09:03.943 --> 00:09:08.110 are always considered as somebody else's asset, not mine. 00:09:08.978 --> 00:09:11.042 - But the point is the strategy of 00:09:11.042 --> 00:09:13.467 survival demands that you must have one 00:09:13.467 --> 00:09:16.229 or two sons otherwise you will be left 00:09:16.229 --> 00:09:20.396 high and dry, not only no old age throughout your life. 00:09:22.050 --> 00:09:23.661 - [Narrator] Having a second son 00:09:23.661 --> 00:09:25.691 raises the odds for Gooday that at least 00:09:25.691 --> 00:09:27.441 one boy will survive, 00:09:29.280 --> 00:09:31.310 especially since one in 10 children in 00:09:31.310 --> 00:09:34.227 Uttar Pradesh dies before age five. 00:09:36.565 --> 00:09:39.065 Gooday has lost three infants. 00:09:40.909 --> 00:09:42.924 Ravi urges her to bring her children to the 00:09:42.924 --> 00:09:44.924 clinic for vaccinations, 00:09:47.272 --> 00:09:50.115 if the family trusts their son will survive the 00:09:50.115 --> 00:09:52.948 pressure to bear another may ease. 00:09:54.802 --> 00:09:57.105 - Women in India really don't have control over 00:09:57.105 --> 00:09:59.908 their reproductive lives because all 00:09:59.908 --> 00:10:02.282 sexual reproductive health decisions are 00:10:02.282 --> 00:10:05.782 essentially made by men and you can't 00:10:05.782 --> 00:10:09.206 deal with an issue like population by 00:10:09.206 --> 00:10:12.265 itself, you have to look at the ratio of 00:10:12.265 --> 00:10:16.884 infant mortality or literacy or women's status 00:10:16.884 --> 00:10:19.024 because it's all very interlaced. 00:10:19.024 --> 00:10:21.934 This is a patriarchal society and I 00:10:21.934 --> 00:10:26.101 think gender lies at the heart of the problem really. 00:10:31.182 --> 00:10:33.398 - [Narrator] On the edge of the Deccan Plains 00:10:33.398 --> 00:10:35.127 barefoot children walk towards their 00:10:35.127 --> 00:10:38.294 school in the rural village of Saswad. 00:10:43.913 --> 00:10:46.507 The daily rhythm of life here masks an 00:10:46.507 --> 00:10:50.674 unusual event unfolding in the heart of the village. 00:10:51.989 --> 00:10:53.549 Newly married couples play 00:10:53.549 --> 00:10:55.855 games to get to know each other as they 00:10:55.855 --> 00:10:59.438 wait to have their wedding portraits taken. 00:11:00.741 --> 00:11:02.063 The gathering has been organized 00:11:02.063 --> 00:11:04.660 by social worker Manisha Gupta to help 00:11:04.660 --> 00:11:08.827 young men and women bridge India's stark gender divide. 00:11:11.557 --> 00:11:13.000 - In traditional Indian society 00:11:13.000 --> 00:11:15.016 95% of marriages still are 00:11:15.016 --> 00:11:17.183 arranged marriages and most often than 00:11:17.183 --> 00:11:19.221 not the bride and the groom are 00:11:19.221 --> 00:11:21.645 strangers to each other and one would 00:11:21.645 --> 00:11:24.611 say that there's a 50% chance of things 00:11:24.611 --> 00:11:27.064 going wrong in a rural marriage where 00:11:27.064 --> 00:11:29.746 it's arranged and she's barely 15 or 16 00:11:29.746 --> 00:11:31.573 and he's not much older and they're 00:11:31.573 --> 00:11:33.881 talking of really adolescence you know, 00:11:33.881 --> 00:11:38.048 building a life and having children, it's not an easy job. 00:11:42.428 --> 00:11:43.496 - [Narrator] Social taboos pushed 00:11:43.496 --> 00:11:46.440 aside girls and boys in separate groups 00:11:46.440 --> 00:11:50.607 hear frank talk about sex and how to use birth control. 00:11:52.677 --> 00:11:54.677 The stakes are enormous. 00:11:56.429 --> 00:11:58.453 The age structure of India's population 00:11:58.453 --> 00:12:00.890 resembles a pyramid with vast numbers of 00:12:00.890 --> 00:12:03.807 youth at its base, half the country 00:12:04.923 --> 00:12:08.249 mirroring the world at large is under 25 00:12:08.249 --> 00:12:10.749 and reaching reproductive age. 00:12:12.931 --> 00:12:14.910 If couples in this generation have only 00:12:14.910 --> 00:12:17.419 two children in effect replacing 00:12:17.419 --> 00:12:21.086 themselves population growth will soon halt. 00:12:23.025 --> 00:12:25.742 Yet for Manisha it's far from clear 00:12:25.742 --> 00:12:27.471 if India's youth will follow this 00:12:27.471 --> 00:12:31.638 radical trend and throw off the shackles of tradition. 00:12:34.974 --> 00:12:35.932 As they pose for their 00:12:35.932 --> 00:12:37.608 portraits she asked them how many 00:12:37.608 --> 00:12:39.117 children they want 00:12:39.117 --> 00:12:41.589 if the gender matters and how they feel 00:12:41.589 --> 00:12:43.256 about birth control. 00:12:44.872 --> 00:12:45.781 - A lot of the couples 00:12:45.781 --> 00:12:47.057 said that they'll be happy with two 00:12:47.057 --> 00:12:48.957 children and we said what gender and 00:12:48.957 --> 00:12:50.893 they said it doesn't matter it's very 00:12:50.893 --> 00:12:53.099 nice of them to say, 10 years ago people 00:12:53.099 --> 00:12:55.330 wouldn't have even said it but I'm not 00:12:55.330 --> 00:12:57.157 really sure that that would happen in 00:12:57.157 --> 00:13:01.074 the household if there were just two daughters. 00:13:03.421 --> 00:13:04.768 - [Narrator] Daughters are seen as an 00:13:04.768 --> 00:13:07.096 economic liability because parents must 00:13:07.096 --> 00:13:09.853 provide a dowry of cash or gifts to 00:13:09.853 --> 00:13:11.103 marry them off. 00:13:12.893 --> 00:13:15.198 A common Hindu wedding blessing praised 00:13:15.198 --> 00:13:17.948 that a wife will bear eight sons, 00:13:18.949 --> 00:13:20.961 but if she doesn't have any there could be a 00:13:20.961 --> 00:13:22.044 price to pay, 00:13:24.051 --> 00:13:28.051 and that's why Manisha tries to intervene early. 00:13:35.289 --> 00:13:37.454 The most shocking proof of what can go 00:13:37.454 --> 00:13:39.810 wrong are the brides who've been doused 00:13:39.810 --> 00:13:42.486 in kerosene and set ablaze by angry 00:13:42.486 --> 00:13:44.153 in-laws or husbands, 00:13:47.507 --> 00:13:52.265 an estimated 25,000 women are killed or maimed each year 00:13:52.265 --> 00:13:55.420 over dowry and domestic disputes or even 00:13:55.420 --> 00:13:58.003 their failure to produce a son. 00:14:01.355 --> 00:14:04.887 - Bride burning is common in India and 00:14:04.887 --> 00:14:06.852 since women are so dispensable and these 00:14:06.852 --> 00:14:08.288 young little girls you know between 00:14:08.288 --> 00:14:12.233 the age of 15 to 24 are the most vulnerable, 00:14:12.233 --> 00:14:13.463 girls would get burned they would get 00:14:13.463 --> 00:14:16.045 poisoned and so therefore a girl in the 00:14:16.045 --> 00:14:17.845 husband's house at least for the first 00:14:17.845 --> 00:14:21.428 10 or 15 years always walks on a tightrope. 00:14:27.218 --> 00:14:28.675 - [Narrator] Gender discrimination takes 00:14:28.675 --> 00:14:31.092 place even among the wealthy. 00:14:32.807 --> 00:14:35.857 Upper-class parents committed to a two-child family 00:14:35.857 --> 00:14:37.303 have sonograms to make sure they've 00:14:37.303 --> 00:14:40.303 conceived a son although this doctor 00:14:41.428 --> 00:14:43.774 refuses to reveal a fetus's sex not 00:14:43.774 --> 00:14:45.691 everyone is as ethical. 00:14:47.621 --> 00:14:50.659 Millions of females are aborted leaving 00:14:50.659 --> 00:14:54.242 India with 35 million fewer women than men. 00:14:57.158 --> 00:14:58.685 - There was an article saying that 00:14:58.685 --> 00:15:01.537 better dead than burned okay meaning that 00:15:01.537 --> 00:15:03.653 it's better that you have sex determination 00:15:03.653 --> 00:15:04.517 rather than be burned in 00:15:04.517 --> 00:15:06.656 your in-laws household and the newspaper 00:15:06.656 --> 00:15:08.012 asked me to write a rejoinder and I 00:15:08.012 --> 00:15:10.566 wrote a rejoinder saying neither dear nor burned. 00:15:10.566 --> 00:15:11.763 - India wants to reduce 00:15:11.763 --> 00:15:13.335 population growth but it certainly 00:15:13.335 --> 00:15:14.943 doesn't want to reduce it through sex 00:15:14.943 --> 00:15:17.083 selective abortion in fact it is 00:15:17.083 --> 00:15:20.220 actually illegal now to test to see what 00:15:20.220 --> 00:15:23.558 the gender of a fetus is but I think that the 00:15:23.558 --> 00:15:25.372 single most important thing India can do 00:15:25.372 --> 00:15:28.488 today, demographically, is to somehow 00:15:28.488 --> 00:15:31.387 make the birth of a girl child 00:15:31.387 --> 00:15:33.993 as welcome as the birth of a boy child 00:15:33.993 --> 00:15:35.850 because the goal of most developing 00:15:35.850 --> 00:15:40.017 countries is to reach this magical two child family. 00:15:49.840 --> 00:15:52.735 - [Narrator] Abidi Shah, a social worker has seen that 00:15:52.735 --> 00:15:54.593 when women have greater access to 00:15:54.593 --> 00:15:58.426 education and job training their status rises. 00:16:00.747 --> 00:16:03.262 16 years ago she visited a village 00:16:03.262 --> 00:16:05.762 on the outskirts of New Delhi, 00:16:07.529 --> 00:16:10.136 dismayed by the plight of young girls there she 00:16:10.136 --> 00:16:11.386 decided to act. 00:16:13.881 --> 00:16:17.372 - There wasn't any sense among the girls 00:16:17.372 --> 00:16:20.295 of the adolescence because they had lost 00:16:20.295 --> 00:16:23.295 their childhood already they had to look 00:16:23.295 --> 00:16:25.631 after the younger brother and sister 00:16:25.631 --> 00:16:27.295 they had to cook the food they have to 00:16:27.295 --> 00:16:29.434 clean the house they had to fetch the 00:16:29.434 --> 00:16:32.133 drinking water, no education for them, no 00:16:32.133 --> 00:16:35.133 food for them, no clothing for them. 00:16:37.180 --> 00:16:40.560 - [Narrator] First Abidi convinced a skeptical community 00:16:40.560 --> 00:16:42.331 to let her teach vocational and health 00:16:42.331 --> 00:16:44.664 classes to adolescent girls, 00:16:46.499 --> 00:16:49.357 next she had to show the girls themselves how 00:16:49.357 --> 00:16:52.357 education could improve their lives. 00:16:54.582 --> 00:16:58.815 - I just said do you want same life as you 00:16:58.815 --> 00:17:01.322 are living here they said no I want 00:17:01.322 --> 00:17:04.432 better life what sort of life you want, 00:17:04.432 --> 00:17:07.346 the life I see on the TV the life you 00:17:07.346 --> 00:17:10.929 are living so I said then what will you do, 00:17:12.231 --> 00:17:14.948 we can't do anything, that's our luck, 00:17:14.948 --> 00:17:16.012 that's our destiny, 00:17:16.012 --> 00:17:18.811 I said no this is not your destiny you can 00:17:18.811 --> 00:17:20.229 change your life. 00:17:23.391 --> 00:17:24.300 - [Narrator] One young woman who 00:17:24.300 --> 00:17:26.883 attended the program was Bimla, 00:17:28.942 --> 00:17:32.484 at age 13 her father had arranged her marriage and 00:17:32.484 --> 00:17:35.234 forced her to drop out of school. 00:17:38.121 --> 00:17:39.703 - [Translator] I already had two daughters when Abidi 00:17:39.703 --> 00:17:41.951 arrived at our house she saw that I was 00:17:41.951 --> 00:17:44.877 hungry and exhausted and she asked me 00:17:44.877 --> 00:17:47.295 why don't you use birth control, 00:17:47.295 --> 00:17:49.229 I didn't know anything about it 00:17:49.229 --> 00:17:52.812 but I knew I didn't want any more children. 00:17:54.852 --> 00:17:56.950 - [Narrator] Bimla was just the kind of girl 00:17:56.950 --> 00:17:58.783 Abidi wanted to reach, 00:18:00.810 --> 00:18:02.874 she told Bimla that she could legally 00:18:02.874 --> 00:18:07.041 use the pill even without her family's permission. 00:18:07.933 --> 00:18:11.078 (speaking foreign language) 00:18:11.078 --> 00:18:12.401 - [Translator] I was talking with my friend 00:18:12.401 --> 00:18:13.266 and my mother-in-law was 00:18:13.266 --> 00:18:15.614 listening from behind the door as soon 00:18:15.614 --> 00:18:17.528 as she left my mother lost started 00:18:17.528 --> 00:18:20.823 yelling you must have a son stop taking 00:18:20.823 --> 00:18:23.973 the pills, although she tried to beat me 00:18:23.973 --> 00:18:26.404 into submission I was sure I didn't want 00:18:26.404 --> 00:18:29.376 any more children, I could see that large 00:18:29.376 --> 00:18:31.235 families were often poorer their 00:18:31.235 --> 00:18:32.939 children didn't have clothes to wear or 00:18:32.939 --> 00:18:35.447 food to eat but they played in the dirt 00:18:35.447 --> 00:18:38.197 and they didn't get an education. 00:18:42.064 --> 00:18:43.505 - [Narrator] With help from a Abidi, 00:18:43.505 --> 00:18:45.505 Bimla learned tailoring, 00:18:47.616 --> 00:18:49.139 soon she had enough money to 00:18:49.139 --> 00:18:51.369 help her husband buy a new house and 00:18:51.369 --> 00:18:53.869 send their children to school. 00:18:56.252 --> 00:19:00.127 - The reality in India is that many many women 00:19:00.127 --> 00:19:02.721 are very empowered but the majority are 00:19:02.721 --> 00:19:05.188 disempowered so when women want to 00:19:05.188 --> 00:19:08.446 change the way their roles are defined 00:19:08.446 --> 00:19:10.179 they cannot do that if they are 00:19:10.179 --> 00:19:12.721 economically vulnerable and dependent. 00:19:12.721 --> 00:19:14.927 Because the price then is that if you're 00:19:14.927 --> 00:19:16.786 left destitute if you're abandoned if 00:19:16.786 --> 00:19:18.394 you're thrown out of the house you have 00:19:18.394 --> 00:19:20.248 no way to survive if you have no income 00:19:20.248 --> 00:19:22.721 so I strongly believe that one way 00:19:22.721 --> 00:19:25.154 forward to increase the momentum of 00:19:25.154 --> 00:19:27.504 social and cultural change is to allow 00:19:27.504 --> 00:19:30.754 women to have employment opportunities. 00:19:35.013 --> 00:19:36.784 - [Narrator] Yet these opportunities may be hard to 00:19:36.784 --> 00:19:40.451 come by, even as change sweeps across India. 00:19:43.580 --> 00:19:45.959 To keep pace with its growing population 00:19:45.959 --> 00:19:48.187 the country must create six million new 00:19:48.187 --> 00:19:49.187 jobs a year, 00:19:53.129 --> 00:19:55.441 but even its dazzling economic growth 00:19:55.441 --> 00:19:58.029 of 8% is not enough to prevent 00:19:58.029 --> 00:20:01.779 unemployment, already widespread, from rising 00:20:03.132 --> 00:20:05.499 and a new problem is looming as 00:20:05.499 --> 00:20:07.563 population pressures confront vast 00:20:07.563 --> 00:20:09.753 numbers of towns and villages with 00:20:09.753 --> 00:20:11.753 chronic water shortages. 00:20:13.573 --> 00:20:16.328 - In India water tables are now falling in 00:20:16.328 --> 00:20:18.780 most states including the Punjab which 00:20:18.780 --> 00:20:21.316 is the breadbasket of India and this is 00:20:21.316 --> 00:20:23.481 making it more difficult to expand food 00:20:23.481 --> 00:20:25.617 production at a time when population is 00:20:25.617 --> 00:20:27.428 projected to grow by another half 00:20:27.428 --> 00:20:28.761 billion by 2050. 00:20:31.359 --> 00:20:33.753 - India faces really huge 00:20:33.753 --> 00:20:35.850 environmental problems from rapid 00:20:35.850 --> 00:20:38.685 population growth it might have a hard 00:20:38.685 --> 00:20:41.431 time growing enough food for itself on 00:20:41.431 --> 00:20:42.960 the other hand you've becoming a center 00:20:42.960 --> 00:20:45.266 of software so if it makes a transition 00:20:45.266 --> 00:20:47.364 to becoming more of a high-tech 00:20:47.364 --> 00:20:50.808 knowledge-based society then it probably 00:20:50.808 --> 00:20:54.681 could feed itself it has huge numbers of 00:20:54.681 --> 00:20:57.264 very smart well-educated people. 00:20:57.264 --> 00:21:00.142 - So we have got such a large number of intellectuals 00:21:00.142 --> 00:21:02.509 in every field that you cannot 00:21:02.509 --> 00:21:05.675 write of India and say well, population growth 00:21:05.675 --> 00:21:08.259 will finish, this country will be doomed 00:21:08.259 --> 00:21:10.506 there will be no drinking water, no housing 00:21:10.506 --> 00:21:14.828 no nothing, no jobs, absolutely unreal, unscientific 00:21:14.828 --> 00:21:15.828 it is drama. 00:21:17.818 --> 00:21:22.080 - [Narrator] India is poised on a knife-edge 00:21:22.080 --> 00:21:23.991 headed in the right direction it will 00:21:23.991 --> 00:21:26.092 still take years to reach the coveted two 00:21:26.092 --> 00:21:29.092 child family and what if the average 00:21:30.426 --> 00:21:33.926 family size turns out to be slightly more? 00:21:35.819 --> 00:21:38.073 - Suppose in India they really did achieve 00:21:38.073 --> 00:21:40.725 two children per couple in let's say 15 00:21:40.725 --> 00:21:43.338 years then they would rise to about 00:21:43.338 --> 00:21:46.421 1.6 billion by 2050 but the key is if 00:21:47.886 --> 00:21:50.020 couples have say on average about 00:21:50.020 --> 00:21:52.817 two and a half children India would get its 00:21:52.817 --> 00:21:56.732 second billion by the middle of this century. 00:21:56.732 --> 00:22:00.826 - [Narrator] And the same is true for the world, 00:22:00.826 --> 00:22:02.429 if global fertility stays even 00:22:02.429 --> 00:22:06.059 slightly above this magical two child number, 00:22:06.059 --> 00:22:07.906 by mid-century our population 00:22:07.906 --> 00:22:11.489 could nearly double from six to 11 billion. 00:22:13.396 --> 00:22:16.094 - We're dealing with unprecedented numbers 00:22:16.094 --> 00:22:18.252 in terms of their magnitude and the 00:22:18.252 --> 00:22:20.478 result could be huge rates of 00:22:20.478 --> 00:22:23.846 unemployment, great political instability, 00:22:23.846 --> 00:22:26.143 strife and a complete unraveling of 00:22:26.143 --> 00:22:30.202 economy and society, and human ingenuity 00:22:30.202 --> 00:22:32.211 may well find a way to deal with these 00:22:32.211 --> 00:22:35.184 numbers it has in the past, 00:22:35.184 --> 00:22:38.379 human ingenuity is wonderful but it's also, 00:22:38.379 --> 00:22:41.379 like demographics, highly uncertain. 00:22:53.396 --> 00:22:56.154 - [Narrator] Around the world in Japan the population 00:22:56.154 --> 00:22:58.168 is careening in the opposite direction 00:22:58.168 --> 00:22:59.085 of India's, 00:23:00.945 --> 00:23:04.851 300 children once studied here in the elementary school 00:23:04.851 --> 00:23:05.684 of Oguchi, 00:23:08.066 --> 00:23:09.771 but once this lone fifth grader 00:23:09.771 --> 00:23:12.161 graduates no new students will fill his 00:23:12.161 --> 00:23:16.328 place because of a startling decline in birthrates. 00:23:18.541 --> 00:23:19.899 - Never before in human 00:23:19.899 --> 00:23:22.816 history has fertility fallen so far 00:23:23.893 --> 00:23:26.976 so fast, so deep and so unexpectedly, 00:23:28.899 --> 00:23:33.066 and no one should doubt that it is a revolutionary change. 00:23:35.194 --> 00:23:37.403 - If you go back and you look in the 1960s there all these 00:23:37.403 --> 00:23:39.181 horrendous titles books you know like 00:23:39.181 --> 00:23:41.679 The Population Bomb and many more and you 00:23:41.679 --> 00:23:43.492 find out that the primary source of 00:23:43.492 --> 00:23:45.293 concern in the intellectual circles about 00:23:45.293 --> 00:23:48.131 population was and in some places 00:23:48.131 --> 00:23:50.678 continues to be the population explosion 00:23:50.678 --> 00:23:53.283 and in all of the industrial countries 00:23:53.283 --> 00:23:56.902 our overreaction potentially to this 00:23:56.902 --> 00:23:59.090 this concern now has left us with just 00:23:59.090 --> 00:24:00.840 the opposite problem. 00:24:06.030 --> 00:24:08.628 - [Narrator] With crowded streets and packed trains 00:24:08.628 --> 00:24:12.795 Japan hardly seems to be in need of any more people, 00:24:15.208 --> 00:24:17.886 but if fertility stays at its low rate 00:24:17.886 --> 00:24:21.233 of 1.3 children per woman by the end of 00:24:21.233 --> 00:24:23.517 the century Japan's population of 00:24:23.517 --> 00:24:26.184 126 million will shrink in half. 00:24:29.232 --> 00:24:30.632 The impending decline has become a 00:24:30.632 --> 00:24:33.309 national crisis with blame targeted 00:24:33.309 --> 00:24:37.226 against the soaring numbers of unmarried youth, 00:24:38.190 --> 00:24:40.248 called parasite singles they live 00:24:40.248 --> 00:24:41.930 with their parents while pursuing 00:24:41.930 --> 00:24:45.680 careers and other interests besides marriage. 00:24:46.981 --> 00:24:49.079 - Japanese women in the 70s felt 00:24:49.079 --> 00:24:51.103 that 25 was your last chance to get 00:24:51.103 --> 00:24:54.268 married if you were 26 you'd be 00:24:54.268 --> 00:24:56.858 a Christmas cake because December 25th is 00:24:56.858 --> 00:24:59.064 the last day when a Christmas cake can 00:24:59.064 --> 00:25:01.970 be sold and after that you're leftovers. 00:25:01.970 --> 00:25:04.946 Now a woman will often delay marriage 00:25:04.946 --> 00:25:06.681 until you know the last possible time 00:25:06.681 --> 00:25:09.275 before she can have her first child this 00:25:09.275 --> 00:25:12.364 is now seen by some as a kind of female 00:25:12.364 --> 00:25:15.697 selfishness but I think women in general 00:25:16.651 --> 00:25:20.818 are trying to do different things with their lives. 00:25:22.564 --> 00:25:24.415 - [Narrator] Tomoko Omuro is a leading 00:25:24.415 --> 00:25:26.248 television journalist, 00:25:27.282 --> 00:25:31.208 at age 29 she became one of Japan's first female anchors. 00:25:31.208 --> 00:25:33.374 (speaking foreign language) 00:25:33.374 --> 00:25:36.171 - I think there are two doors for women. 00:25:36.171 --> 00:25:39.836 One door has a ladder for promotion, 00:25:39.836 --> 00:25:42.102 and the other one doesn't really have anything, 00:25:42.102 --> 00:25:45.769 and you just stay on the same level forever. 00:25:46.794 --> 00:25:50.952 And lots of women end up taking copies and serving tea. 00:25:50.952 --> 00:25:53.547 And I didn't want to have that kind of work, 00:25:53.547 --> 00:25:57.297 and I was looking for a good lifetime career. 00:25:59.833 --> 00:26:01.726 - [Narrator] By age 37, Tomoko had become 00:26:01.726 --> 00:26:04.896 an editor-in-chief, supervising a team of producers 00:26:04.896 --> 00:26:06.063 and reporters. 00:26:10.490 --> 00:26:12.840 Her husband of nine years often asked her 00:26:12.840 --> 00:26:15.423 when they might start a family. 00:26:17.399 --> 00:26:20.609 - Many companies in Japan still consider women 00:26:20.609 --> 00:26:22.716 with children as a burden. 00:26:22.716 --> 00:26:25.930 So, I was so scared to have a baby, 00:26:25.930 --> 00:26:29.428 because I thought I would just drop out of the race. 00:26:29.428 --> 00:26:32.178 So, I kept on just postponing it. 00:26:33.174 --> 00:26:36.090 But when I turned 37 or so, 00:26:36.090 --> 00:26:40.257 I started feeling like something was missing in my life. 00:26:50.644 --> 00:26:53.202 - [Narrator] At 41, Tomoko gave birth to their daughter, 00:26:53.202 --> 00:26:54.035 Asumi. 00:26:54.972 --> 00:26:56.908 Her initial ambivalence about motherhood 00:26:56.908 --> 00:26:59.575 is becoming increasingly common. 00:27:01.394 --> 00:27:02.405 - [Translator] When I get married, 00:27:02.405 --> 00:27:06.572 it might be better to have kids, but I don't worry about it. 00:27:08.998 --> 00:27:10.824 - [Translator] If I get married, 00:27:10.824 --> 00:27:14.324 I might think about having kids in my 30s. 00:27:16.832 --> 00:27:19.430 - [Translator] If I am working, I can live on my own. 00:27:19.430 --> 00:27:21.768 In the older times, marrying, for Japanese women, 00:27:21.768 --> 00:27:23.336 was like a dependency. 00:27:23.336 --> 00:27:25.669 It's not like that any more. 00:27:27.456 --> 00:27:29.261 - [Narrator] But besides wanting careers, 00:27:29.261 --> 00:27:33.428 there's another crucial reason that more women are working. 00:27:34.928 --> 00:27:38.095 - In Japan, the economy since '89, '90 00:27:39.625 --> 00:27:41.973 has been in a recession. 00:27:41.973 --> 00:27:45.819 Japanese women often have to work to keep 00:27:45.819 --> 00:27:47.214 their families middle class. 00:27:47.214 --> 00:27:49.443 One income doesn't work for many families, 00:27:49.443 --> 00:27:52.842 especially in terms of the costs of children's education. 00:27:52.842 --> 00:27:56.222 It's an exceptionally expensive task to raise 00:27:56.222 --> 00:27:58.555 a successful child in Japan. 00:28:01.041 --> 00:28:03.478 - [Narrator] There's a saying that Japanese men live 00:28:03.478 --> 00:28:06.062 at the office and commute to home, 00:28:06.062 --> 00:28:09.645 often catching the last train, at midnight. 00:28:11.824 --> 00:28:14.947 Now as more women join their husbands at work, 00:28:14.947 --> 00:28:17.435 they're discovering that the long hours required 00:28:17.435 --> 00:28:20.672 by most employers make having a family, 00:28:20.672 --> 00:28:23.422 certainly a large one, difficult. 00:28:25.692 --> 00:28:26.915 (speaking foreign language) 00:28:26.915 --> 00:28:29.397 For Tomoko, it was a tough challenge to find 00:28:29.397 --> 00:28:31.752 a daycare center that could look after Asumi 00:28:31.752 --> 00:28:34.997 for 13 hours a day, given the unpredictable hours 00:28:34.997 --> 00:28:36.330 of the newsroom. 00:28:38.567 --> 00:28:42.734 For six months, her mother moved to Tokyo to help. 00:28:43.709 --> 00:28:47.336 Now that she's gone, Tomoko agonizes at the thought 00:28:47.336 --> 00:28:51.503 that her daughter may be asleep by the time she's picked up. 00:28:54.242 --> 00:28:57.027 - If you are an executive, you can't say, 00:28:57.027 --> 00:29:00.560 "Well, it's five o'clock, I'm leaving." 00:29:00.560 --> 00:29:03.754 If there's work, you have to complete your work. 00:29:03.754 --> 00:29:07.921 Right now I'm trying to figure out how to work with 00:29:09.262 --> 00:29:12.928 my full ability, and at the same time just save 00:29:12.928 --> 00:29:14.867 the time for my baby. 00:29:14.867 --> 00:29:19.034 My husband, I know he's busy, maybe busier than I am. 00:29:20.044 --> 00:29:23.369 Japanese people tend to work for long hours 00:29:23.369 --> 00:29:26.619 and unless we change that kind of idea, 00:29:28.262 --> 00:29:32.095 the declining birth rate is going to continue. 00:29:38.092 --> 00:29:39.451 - [Narrator] Three hours from Tokyo, 00:29:39.451 --> 00:29:41.845 near the elementary school of Oguchi, 00:29:41.845 --> 00:29:43.901 one can glimpse the flip side of the country's 00:29:43.901 --> 00:29:45.484 falling birthrates. 00:29:47.866 --> 00:29:52.033 By 2050, one in three Japanese will be over the age of 65. 00:29:55.909 --> 00:29:59.159 In Oguchi, this is already the reality. 00:30:03.566 --> 00:30:05.994 Mr. and Mrs. Ohno's house was once packed 00:30:05.994 --> 00:30:07.911 with three generations. 00:30:09.438 --> 00:30:11.555 But since their parents died and their children 00:30:11.555 --> 00:30:13.664 left for careers in the city, 00:30:13.664 --> 00:30:17.831 life for this 80-year-old couple has become lonelier. 00:30:19.684 --> 00:30:20.904 - [Translator] In the old times, 00:30:20.904 --> 00:30:22.713 it was normal for a daughter-in-law to look 00:30:22.713 --> 00:30:24.858 after her in-laws. 00:30:24.858 --> 00:30:27.594 So that's why I took care of my father-in-law 00:30:27.594 --> 00:30:29.344 until he died, at 83. 00:30:33.949 --> 00:30:35.509 - [Translator] Our children have grown up 00:30:35.509 --> 00:30:37.676 and gone to live in Tokyo. 00:30:39.033 --> 00:30:40.794 They've all gotten married and have to worry 00:30:40.794 --> 00:30:44.822 about sending their children to school. 00:30:44.822 --> 00:30:46.962 That is their place now. 00:30:46.962 --> 00:30:48.694 They have to work, and they can't afford to 00:30:48.694 --> 00:30:51.444 come back here and look after us. 00:30:57.827 --> 00:31:01.023 - The governmental query now is, 00:31:01.023 --> 00:31:02.962 "Who cares for our elders?" 00:31:02.962 --> 00:31:05.959 In essence, though, the government really feels that 00:31:05.959 --> 00:31:09.209 families are responsible and society isn't. 00:31:09.209 --> 00:31:13.376 And ultimately, when you say family, you mean women. 00:31:18.359 --> 00:31:20.045 - [Narrator] But with more women working, 00:31:20.045 --> 00:31:25.009 there's often no one at home to care for the elderly. 00:31:25.009 --> 00:31:27.926 The stress on families is mounting, 00:31:29.209 --> 00:31:31.361 especially since neither the government 00:31:31.361 --> 00:31:35.528 nor private industry has been able to fill the gap. 00:31:37.800 --> 00:31:39.775 If the Ohnos should get sick, 00:31:39.775 --> 00:31:42.858 the only nearby nursing home is full. 00:31:48.242 --> 00:31:50.427 To ensure their security in old age, 00:31:50.427 --> 00:31:54.594 the Ohnos had counted on profits from their forest, 00:31:55.879 --> 00:31:58.189 but as globalization brought in cheap timber 00:31:58.189 --> 00:32:02.356 from the Philippines, they were unable to sell their trees. 00:32:04.778 --> 00:32:06.665 - [Translator] I can't depend on my children, 00:32:06.665 --> 00:32:09.066 so I don't know what to do. 00:32:09.066 --> 00:32:10.685 It would be great if the government builds lots 00:32:10.685 --> 00:32:14.254 of nursing homes and takes care of us, 00:32:14.254 --> 00:32:17.804 but I don't have high expectations. 00:32:17.804 --> 00:32:20.367 Staying healthy is the best thing, 00:32:20.367 --> 00:32:23.200 but we can't stay healthy forever. 00:32:29.793 --> 00:32:31.899 - [Narrator] Japan's population pyramid looks 00:32:31.899 --> 00:32:34.813 like India's turned upside down, 00:32:34.813 --> 00:32:38.980 reflecting how the elderly dramatically outnumber the young. 00:32:40.796 --> 00:32:43.957 The Japanese now live longer than anyone else, 00:32:43.957 --> 00:32:47.374 with men averaging 78 years and women 84. 00:32:49.529 --> 00:32:52.470 - And with increasing education, 00:32:52.470 --> 00:32:55.118 we find that disability rates among the elderly 00:32:55.118 --> 00:32:59.209 have been dropping steadily. That is fabulously good news. 00:32:59.209 --> 00:33:01.770 It's a revolution in human demography. 00:33:01.770 --> 00:33:05.103 It means that people of 60 have the function 00:33:05.103 --> 00:33:09.103 of people of 40 at the beginning of the century. 00:33:10.191 --> 00:33:12.256 - [Narrator] But this good news is tempered by 00:33:12.256 --> 00:33:15.423 a sobering reality in aging countries. 00:33:16.644 --> 00:33:18.916 There will soon not be enough young people 00:33:18.916 --> 00:33:23.083 entering the work force to support those retiring. 00:33:24.379 --> 00:33:26.652 Not only will there be fewer workers, 00:33:26.652 --> 00:33:28.762 but as the population declines, 00:33:28.762 --> 00:33:31.262 there will be fewer consumers. 00:33:32.137 --> 00:33:34.372 - It's going to be extremely hard for businesses to make 00:33:34.372 --> 00:33:35.205 a profit. 00:33:35.205 --> 00:33:36.715 And when businesses don't make a profit, 00:33:36.715 --> 00:33:37.975 they don't pay taxes. 00:33:37.975 --> 00:33:39.867 And when taxes don't get paid, you can't support 00:33:39.867 --> 00:33:41.297 the welfare state. 00:33:41.297 --> 00:33:44.117 And so the older countries face such 00:33:44.117 --> 00:33:46.519 a huge problem financially that they really 00:33:46.519 --> 00:33:49.436 could undermine the global economy. 00:33:50.348 --> 00:33:52.516 - [Narrator] To keep its workforce from shrinking, 00:33:52.516 --> 00:33:54.969 an aging country like Japan would need to take 00:33:54.969 --> 00:33:57.386 in 600,000 immigrants a year. 00:34:00.300 --> 00:34:03.118 Yet the Japanese resist, obsessed by preserving 00:34:03.118 --> 00:34:04.785 their own ethnicity. 00:34:07.199 --> 00:34:09.981 In stark contrast, America's workforce continues 00:34:09.981 --> 00:34:12.898 to grow as a result of immigration. 00:34:15.279 --> 00:34:18.353 - American fertility has been below replacement for about 00:34:18.353 --> 00:34:21.635 35 years, but just barely below. 00:34:21.635 --> 00:34:24.629 But we take in about a million immigrants a year. 00:34:24.629 --> 00:34:27.987 And in the next 50 years, they and their children 00:34:27.987 --> 00:34:30.217 are going to help America grow by about 00:34:30.217 --> 00:34:33.742 a 100 million people, so we will be the only one 00:34:33.742 --> 00:34:36.598 of the modern countries that will be growing, 00:34:36.598 --> 00:34:38.764 and growing substantially. 00:34:41.549 --> 00:34:43.690 - [Narrator] The United States is now the third 00:34:43.690 --> 00:34:46.562 most populous nation, and will remain so for 00:34:46.562 --> 00:34:50.706 the next 50 years, as our numbers climb from around 300 00:34:50.706 --> 00:34:52.540 to 400 million people. 00:34:55.040 --> 00:34:58.623 Economically, this growth keeps us vibrant. 00:34:59.496 --> 00:35:03.533 Yet our productive economy also uses more resources 00:35:03.533 --> 00:35:06.832 than any other nation and generates one quarter 00:35:06.832 --> 00:35:10.999 of the greenhouse gases contributing to global warming. 00:35:12.856 --> 00:35:15.679 In fact an American child will consume 00:35:15.679 --> 00:35:18.379 and pollute more over a lifetime 00:35:18.379 --> 00:35:20.962 than 30 children born in India. 00:35:24.826 --> 00:35:28.350 Although population growth is delaying aging in the U.S. 00:35:28.350 --> 00:35:30.847 our ranks of seniors will also increase as 00:35:30.847 --> 00:35:35.014 the baby boom generation, one in four Americans, retires. 00:35:37.652 --> 00:35:40.351 - No other country will see as large a percentage 00:35:40.351 --> 00:35:44.187 increase in the elder population as the United States will, 00:35:44.187 --> 00:35:47.176 because our baby boom was larger than anybody else's. 00:35:47.176 --> 00:35:50.129 And yet we will continue to have lots and lots 00:35:50.129 --> 00:35:52.789 of young people to support them, not enough to 00:35:52.789 --> 00:35:55.472 keep Social Security solvent, but certainly enough 00:35:55.472 --> 00:35:57.201 to make us a younger country compared to 00:35:57.201 --> 00:35:59.701 the other developed countries. 00:36:01.472 --> 00:36:03.616 - [Narrator] Across the industrialized world, 00:36:03.616 --> 00:36:07.783 the average family size is now at or below two children. 00:36:10.329 --> 00:36:13.442 This stunning change has slowed population growth, 00:36:13.442 --> 00:36:17.359 yet it also signals the advent of global aging. 00:36:20.151 --> 00:36:23.563 Confronted by the prospect of shrinking populations, 00:36:23.563 --> 00:36:27.730 many countries now encourage couples to have more children. 00:36:29.633 --> 00:36:31.955 Ironically, they're finding that it maybe easier 00:36:31.955 --> 00:36:35.288 to cut fertility than it is to raise it. 00:36:43.424 --> 00:36:46.965 A startling demographic divide now confronts us 00:36:46.965 --> 00:36:51.264 as older societies shrink and age, while youthful ones reel 00:36:51.264 --> 00:36:52.764 from rapid growth. 00:36:55.272 --> 00:36:59.439 Nowhere is the contrast starker than in sub-Saharan Africa. 00:37:01.254 --> 00:37:04.165 With families averaging around six children each, 00:37:04.165 --> 00:37:07.145 it's one of the fastest growing regions in the world, 00:37:07.145 --> 00:37:10.062 despite high death rates from AIDS. 00:37:11.900 --> 00:37:16.682 - AIDS mortality is having a huge effect on population size. 00:37:16.682 --> 00:37:20.216 Nevertheless, the age structure in sub-Saharan Africa 00:37:20.216 --> 00:37:23.292 is so young that there will be so many people that still 00:37:23.292 --> 00:37:25.398 need to pass thorough their reproductive ages, 00:37:25.398 --> 00:37:28.024 that sub-Saharan Africa, even if it put the brakes 00:37:28.024 --> 00:37:31.191 absolutely, today, on fertility rates, 00:37:32.176 --> 00:37:36.343 its population would nearly double over this century. 00:37:37.214 --> 00:37:40.763 - [Narrator] In 1950, sub-Saharan Africa had one third 00:37:40.763 --> 00:37:43.644 as many people as Europe. 00:37:43.644 --> 00:37:46.762 By 2050, this African population will be 00:37:46.762 --> 00:37:49.095 triple the size of Europe's. 00:37:50.526 --> 00:37:54.159 - Rapid population growth poses a real challenge to nations. 00:37:54.159 --> 00:37:57.646 It taxes their educational system, 00:37:57.646 --> 00:38:00.053 their infrastructures, their health system, 00:38:00.053 --> 00:38:02.828 so, as a whole, it becomes a heavy burden on 00:38:02.828 --> 00:38:05.596 an economy and a governmental system 00:38:05.596 --> 00:38:07.403 that is not strong enough. 00:38:07.403 --> 00:38:08.858 - And what does it mean for these countries? 00:38:08.858 --> 00:38:11.136 It means falling per capita incomes, 00:38:11.136 --> 00:38:13.544 it means deteriorating social services, 00:38:13.544 --> 00:38:14.789 and it means conflict. 00:38:14.789 --> 00:38:18.956 And these will create tremendous pressures to emigrate. 00:38:27.084 --> 00:38:29.191 - [Narrator] Africa's population pressures will 00:38:29.191 --> 00:38:33.156 not just create economic refugees, but environmental ones 00:38:33.156 --> 00:38:33.989 as well. 00:38:36.257 --> 00:38:39.919 To meet rising demands for food, fuel and shelter, 00:38:39.919 --> 00:38:42.024 the continent's forests are disappearing 00:38:42.024 --> 00:38:44.774 at the fastest rate in the world. 00:38:46.786 --> 00:38:50.015 As countries struggle to obtain a decent standard of living, 00:38:50.015 --> 00:38:53.932 natural environments are increasingly strained. 00:38:56.084 --> 00:39:00.114 The degradation not only threatens Africa's unique wildlife, 00:39:00.114 --> 00:39:04.281 but creates hardships for people who live off the land. 00:39:06.594 --> 00:39:08.592 - And roughly a third of the people in the world still 00:39:08.592 --> 00:39:10.860 earn their living not on a job, 00:39:10.860 --> 00:39:12.662 but by growing things or catching them, 00:39:12.662 --> 00:39:14.519 or by picking them up off the ground. 00:39:14.519 --> 00:39:17.465 So if those ecosystems go down, those people are 00:39:17.465 --> 00:39:19.361 in very bad shape. 00:39:19.361 --> 00:39:22.520 And so that's the real risk, is that we're going 00:39:22.520 --> 00:39:24.875 to degrade ecosystems past the point where 00:39:24.875 --> 00:39:27.875 they can sustain life as we know it. 00:39:34.025 --> 00:39:36.048 - [Narrator] Many African states have now embraced 00:39:36.048 --> 00:39:37.381 family planning. 00:39:39.250 --> 00:39:43.417 One of the oldest and most successful programs is in Kenya. 00:39:44.428 --> 00:39:47.214 In the '70s and '80s, this East African nation was 00:39:47.214 --> 00:39:50.214 the poster child for runaway growth. 00:39:52.184 --> 00:39:55.432 But two decades of family planning cut fertility 00:39:55.432 --> 00:39:59.182 from around seven to four children per woman. 00:40:00.417 --> 00:40:03.071 - The number of children per woman has dropped dramatically, 00:40:03.071 --> 00:40:05.060 partly as a result of their individual choices, 00:40:05.060 --> 00:40:08.830 and partly because people have thought to provide 00:40:08.830 --> 00:40:13.449 reproductive health services to make it possible for them. 00:40:13.449 --> 00:40:15.474 - [Narrator] According to demographic models, 00:40:15.474 --> 00:40:17.879 Kenya's falling fertility places it on 00:40:17.879 --> 00:40:21.129 the threshold of a profound transition. 00:40:22.760 --> 00:40:24.997 All countries start in stage one, 00:40:24.997 --> 00:40:28.075 where high death rates from disease make high birth rates 00:40:28.075 --> 00:40:32.242 a necessity to keep a population from being decimated. 00:40:33.497 --> 00:40:36.816 - But then, as modernization begins, 00:40:36.816 --> 00:40:40.519 the death rate falls but the birth rate does not. 00:40:40.519 --> 00:40:43.467 So you have a large excess of births over deaths, 00:40:43.467 --> 00:40:46.717 and the so-called population explosion. 00:40:48.172 --> 00:40:49.902 - [Narrator] The challenge for every country 00:40:49.902 --> 00:40:52.810 is to pass rapidly through this second stage, 00:40:52.810 --> 00:40:56.096 and bring birth rates back into balance with death rates, 00:40:56.096 --> 00:40:59.179 allowing the population to stabilize. 00:41:00.341 --> 00:41:03.684 - Because if countries can't get through that stage quickly, 00:41:03.684 --> 00:41:07.015 then the pressures of population growth may begin to 00:41:07.015 --> 00:41:10.438 undermine their prospects of breaking out. 00:41:10.438 --> 00:41:13.593 And if they don't break out, then the chances are that, 00:41:13.593 --> 00:41:17.260 eventually, things will start breaking down. 00:41:18.540 --> 00:41:21.071 - [Narrator] Just as Kenya stands ready to reap the benefits 00:41:21.071 --> 00:41:24.849 of falling birth rates, the country is facing a stunning 00:41:24.849 --> 00:41:26.599 demographic reversal. 00:41:28.685 --> 00:41:33.179 For the first time in modern history, death rates are rising 00:41:33.179 --> 00:41:34.179 not falling. 00:41:36.223 --> 00:41:40.230 Six to nine percent of all Kenyans are infected with 00:41:40.230 --> 00:41:44.278 HIV-AIDS, causing life expectancy to plummet from 00:41:44.278 --> 00:41:45.528 65 to 49 years. 00:41:48.824 --> 00:41:51.650 In Kenya, AIDS and population growth 00:41:51.650 --> 00:41:54.150 have become tragically linked. 00:41:56.021 --> 00:42:00.188 Nowhere is this more evident than in the slums of Nairobi. 00:42:01.488 --> 00:42:04.997 Here, 21-year-old Florence Akinyi lives with 00:42:04.997 --> 00:42:08.747 her relatives in a one-room corrugated shack. 00:42:12.108 --> 00:42:14.381 What's surprising about her family is that 00:42:14.381 --> 00:42:16.714 all six members are orphans. 00:42:19.438 --> 00:42:22.679 At 16, Florence was thrust into taking care 00:42:22.679 --> 00:42:24.739 of her four younger siblings after 00:42:24.739 --> 00:42:26.989 their parents died of AIDS. 00:42:28.537 --> 00:42:30.848 Then the disease killed her sister, 00:42:30.848 --> 00:42:35.553 and Florence took in her three-year-old nephew. 00:42:35.553 --> 00:42:38.139 - In fact, at times I always feel that it is a lot of 00:42:38.139 --> 00:42:42.306 burden, but because I knew there is no one to take care 00:42:43.279 --> 00:42:46.612 of them, I have just to do the duty now. 00:42:51.361 --> 00:42:53.127 - [Narrator] Florence dropped out of school 00:42:53.127 --> 00:42:57.243 and searched for ways to support her family. 00:42:57.243 --> 00:43:00.910 But with few skills, her options were bleak. 00:43:02.239 --> 00:43:04.081 - What happens with these young women when they 00:43:04.081 --> 00:43:05.893 are forced to drop out of school, 00:43:05.893 --> 00:43:09.257 very often with very basic elementary education, 00:43:09.257 --> 00:43:11.145 they wind up on the streets. 00:43:11.145 --> 00:43:15.661 And they sell their bodies in order to fend for themselves. 00:43:15.661 --> 00:43:18.267 It is not uncommon to find that young women have 00:43:18.267 --> 00:43:22.027 had sex with older men for something as simple as a meal, 00:43:22.027 --> 00:43:26.912 something as simple as a bag of what we call chips. 00:43:26.912 --> 00:43:30.531 - I always feel so bad because in order to get money, 00:43:30.531 --> 00:43:33.446 from this, that is, you have to sleep with them, 00:43:33.446 --> 00:43:37.197 and they pay you more when you don't use the condom. 00:43:37.197 --> 00:43:39.697 And I needed money to survive. 00:43:42.066 --> 00:43:44.174 - [Narrator] Eventually, Florence had to break the 00:43:44.174 --> 00:43:47.574 news to her family that she, too, was infected 00:43:47.574 --> 00:43:49.741 with the deadly HIV virus. 00:43:52.545 --> 00:43:54.988 With treatment beyond her family's means, 00:43:54.988 --> 00:43:58.310 her plight echoes a death sentence ringing across 00:43:58.310 --> 00:43:59.893 sub-Saharan Africa. 00:44:02.492 --> 00:44:06.747 Adults between the ages of 20 and 60 are being wiped out, 00:44:06.747 --> 00:44:09.572 contorting the population pyramids of countries ravaged 00:44:09.572 --> 00:44:12.433 by AIDS into a haunting shape, 00:44:12.433 --> 00:44:14.874 with large numbers of children at the base, 00:44:14.874 --> 00:44:16.854 disappearing adults in the middle, 00:44:16.854 --> 00:44:19.937 and the few surviving seniors on top. 00:44:24.248 --> 00:44:26.647 - AIDS is cutting a huge swath through 00:44:26.647 --> 00:44:29.502 sub-Saharan Africa's strongest resources, its people, 00:44:29.502 --> 00:44:30.978 its working-age people. 00:44:30.978 --> 00:44:34.535 And that is imposing a huge burden in those countries. 00:44:34.535 --> 00:44:36.972 There are currently 11 million orphans 00:44:36.972 --> 00:44:38.740 in sub-Saharan Africa. 00:44:38.740 --> 00:44:41.351 Never before in history have we seen such 00:44:41.351 --> 00:44:44.566 a colossal burden as the number of orphans that will 00:44:44.566 --> 00:44:48.200 overwhelm the capacity of the usual social institutions 00:44:48.200 --> 00:44:49.894 that we have to deal with them. 00:44:49.894 --> 00:44:54.061 - Africa is living in an utter catastrophe right now: 00:44:55.123 --> 00:44:57.950 millions and millions of people dying of preventable 00:44:57.950 --> 00:45:00.308 and treatable disease, millions of 00:45:00.308 --> 00:45:02.447 children becoming orphaned. 00:45:02.447 --> 00:45:05.221 Impoverished people can't face these challenges 00:45:05.221 --> 00:45:06.304 on their own. 00:45:09.353 --> 00:45:12.009 - [Narrator] Today the epidemic is spreading fastest 00:45:12.009 --> 00:45:13.009 among women. 00:45:15.186 --> 00:45:17.650 In fact, an African woman's greatest chance 00:45:17.650 --> 00:45:20.508 for getting infected is within marriage 00:45:20.508 --> 00:45:23.043 where condoms are rarely used when families 00:45:23.043 --> 00:45:25.043 are hoping for children. 00:45:27.423 --> 00:45:30.756 - Right now, a woman has to make a choice between having 00:45:30.756 --> 00:45:34.427 a child or putting herself at risk of HIV infection. 00:45:34.427 --> 00:45:37.022 And because of that, it is clear that 00:45:37.022 --> 00:45:40.522 a prevention strategy for them is crucial. 00:45:45.841 --> 00:45:47.740 - [Narrator] There may soon be a breakthrough that will 00:45:47.740 --> 00:45:49.323 save women's lives. 00:45:51.102 --> 00:45:54.119 At the Population Council in New York City, 00:45:54.119 --> 00:45:56.767 scientists have discovered compounds that prevent 00:45:56.767 --> 00:46:00.184 the HIV virus from infecting human cells. 00:46:02.273 --> 00:46:05.146 Called microbicides, the hope is that they will 00:46:05.146 --> 00:46:09.313 chemically block or kill the virus during intercourse. 00:46:11.432 --> 00:46:14.942 The goal is to develop a vaginal gel that can protect 00:46:14.942 --> 00:46:19.109 women from disease if their partners fail to wear a condom. 00:46:20.338 --> 00:46:23.117 - Some of these products may also have the ability 00:46:23.117 --> 00:46:25.097 to be contraceptive. 00:46:25.097 --> 00:46:27.962 But I think the main issue is that a woman has control 00:46:27.962 --> 00:46:31.629 over its use, she can decide when to use it. 00:46:33.745 --> 00:46:36.352 - As we've seen in the family planning world, 00:46:36.352 --> 00:46:38.750 it is women who primarily take responsibility 00:46:38.750 --> 00:46:41.369 for protection, and if microbicides were actually 00:46:41.369 --> 00:46:44.197 then made available to women, even if they 00:46:44.197 --> 00:46:48.171 were 60% efficacious, not 100% efficacious, 00:46:48.171 --> 00:46:50.900 even 60% efficacious, they could avert 00:46:50.900 --> 00:46:52.817 millions of infections. 00:46:59.145 --> 00:47:02.302 - [Narrator] In several sub-Saharan African countries AIDS 00:47:02.302 --> 00:47:04.885 has reversed population growth. 00:47:06.565 --> 00:47:11.538 But in most, births far exceed deaths partly because only 00:47:11.538 --> 00:47:14.515 19% of women here use birth control, 00:47:14.515 --> 00:47:18.098 in contrast to 61% of women worldwide. 00:47:20.456 --> 00:47:23.156 Although more young people than ever will need family 00:47:23.156 --> 00:47:26.156 planning, funding has not kept pace. 00:47:27.992 --> 00:47:31.108 To complicate matters, the United States has blocked support 00:47:31.108 --> 00:47:35.092 to clinics offering abortion related care or counseling, 00:47:35.092 --> 00:47:40.060 even if U.S. funds are not used for these services. 00:47:40.060 --> 00:47:42.560 As a result, many have closed. 00:47:45.091 --> 00:47:47.405 - It is a tragedy because birthrates are not just 00:47:47.405 --> 00:47:50.868 coming down just on their own, they're coming down 00:47:50.868 --> 00:47:55.035 because women are accessing family planning services. 00:47:56.300 --> 00:47:59.488 And when women can use contraception, 00:47:59.488 --> 00:48:02.405 they do not need to have abortions. 00:48:03.706 --> 00:48:06.652 - [Narrator] The toll of unwanted pregnancy can be seen 00:48:06.652 --> 00:48:10.235 in the wards of Kenyatta National Hospital. 00:48:11.587 --> 00:48:15.334 Half of all adolescent girls in the country bear children 00:48:15.334 --> 00:48:16.167 by age 19. 00:48:19.214 --> 00:48:21.695 Many don't have the means to care for their babies 00:48:21.695 --> 00:48:24.195 and attempt illegal abortions. 00:48:26.145 --> 00:48:29.465 - We've heard of young women using coat hangers, 00:48:29.465 --> 00:48:33.248 knitting needles, detergent, overdosing 00:48:33.248 --> 00:48:36.285 on anti-malarial medication. 00:48:36.285 --> 00:48:39.932 By the time the young women show up at 00:48:39.932 --> 00:48:44.705 a public health facility, very often they're bleeding, 00:48:44.705 --> 00:48:48.038 they're septic, and they're traumatized. 00:48:51.228 --> 00:48:53.275 - [Narrator] But the doctors here stress that there's 00:48:53.275 --> 00:48:56.275 an obvious solution to this problem. 00:48:58.638 --> 00:49:00.659 - Let's look at adolescent pregnancy, 00:49:00.659 --> 00:49:03.942 let's look at abortion, and let's look at AIDS. 00:49:03.942 --> 00:49:06.691 The reason why we say this is the common denominator 00:49:06.691 --> 00:49:08.358 there is unsafe sex. 00:49:09.235 --> 00:49:13.376 And this sexual activity is occurring in the absence 00:49:13.376 --> 00:49:16.333 of accurate and reliable information, 00:49:16.333 --> 00:49:18.941 and in the absence of services that would enable 00:49:18.941 --> 00:49:21.858 them to deal with the consequences. 00:49:24.619 --> 00:49:26.948 - And we know that there is an unmet need for family 00:49:26.948 --> 00:49:29.032 planning, and that this will only grow. 00:49:29.032 --> 00:49:32.950 Add to this that you now have more and more young people 00:49:32.950 --> 00:49:35.100 entering their reproductive years, 00:49:35.100 --> 00:49:39.267 and you can see that we're sitting on a time bomb. 00:49:46.332 --> 00:49:48.732 - [Narrator] In contrast to most African nations, 00:49:48.732 --> 00:49:52.482 Kenya has started its demographic transition. 00:49:53.947 --> 00:49:56.939 Its fertility rates have fallen to around four children 00:49:56.939 --> 00:50:00.691 per woman, although not yet as low as India's average 00:50:00.691 --> 00:50:01.524 of three. 00:50:03.897 --> 00:50:07.565 With fewer babies being born, a changing age structure 00:50:07.565 --> 00:50:10.181 has opened up a rare window of opportunity 00:50:10.181 --> 00:50:11.764 for both countries. 00:50:13.519 --> 00:50:17.825 - India and Kenya have a huge population that's just getting 00:50:17.825 --> 00:50:19.803 ready to enter the labor force, 00:50:19.803 --> 00:50:23.216 the prime working years, the prime reproductive years. 00:50:23.216 --> 00:50:26.379 If India and Kenya can keep fertility down, 00:50:26.379 --> 00:50:28.606 those resources that would have otherwise gone to 00:50:28.606 --> 00:50:30.921 children can be devoted to building up 00:50:30.921 --> 00:50:34.171 the productive capacity of the economy. 00:50:35.458 --> 00:50:38.026 - [Narrator] This strategy transformed the once poor nations 00:50:38.026 --> 00:50:42.026 of South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong. 00:50:44.148 --> 00:50:47.188 As fertility fell, these governments took money once 00:50:47.188 --> 00:50:50.680 spent on children and created jobs for young adults 00:50:50.680 --> 00:50:52.680 entering the work force. 00:50:53.831 --> 00:50:57.998 The economic gains of these Asian Tigers stunned the world. 00:51:00.593 --> 00:51:04.132 - Economic growth in East Asia was not miraculous at all. 00:51:04.132 --> 00:51:08.294 It was, fundamentally, a demographic phenomenon, and it's 00:51:08.294 --> 00:51:11.021 a demographic phenomenon that can be repeated in other 00:51:11.021 --> 00:51:13.754 countries like India and Kenya. 00:51:13.754 --> 00:51:16.822 If they keep fertility down and invest in their 00:51:16.822 --> 00:51:20.142 young working age people, India and Kenya have 00:51:20.142 --> 00:51:23.973 an opportunity to escape the poverty trap that 00:51:23.973 --> 00:51:26.723 have ensnared them for centuries. 00:51:31.796 --> 00:51:35.170 - [Narrator] It took until 1800 for global population 00:51:35.170 --> 00:51:37.420 to reach its first billion. 00:51:38.936 --> 00:51:43.019 In two centuries, the numbers increased six-fold. 00:51:43.906 --> 00:51:48.238 Our world is now headed towards a day of reckoning. 00:51:48.238 --> 00:51:52.819 If fertility drops just below two children, by mid-century, 00:51:52.819 --> 00:51:55.137 global population could stabilize 00:51:55.137 --> 00:51:57.637 at around nine billion people. 00:51:59.614 --> 00:52:01.805 - The key is the education and, really, 00:52:01.805 --> 00:52:03.535 the liberation of women. 00:52:03.535 --> 00:52:06.028 When women have more control over their lives, 00:52:06.028 --> 00:52:08.343 then they'll have the number of children they want. 00:52:08.343 --> 00:52:12.267 And all the evidence is that women want fewer children. 00:52:12.267 --> 00:52:15.761 - Nevertheless, if women have even, on average, 00:52:15.761 --> 00:52:19.636 half a child more than our expectation, 00:52:19.636 --> 00:52:23.096 population could nearly double over the next 50 years. 00:52:23.096 --> 00:52:26.938 And that would involve an increase of over five billion 00:52:26.938 --> 00:52:31.169 individuals, which is historically absolutely unprecedented. 00:52:31.169 --> 00:52:35.686 It took us over 200 years to add the last five billion 00:52:35.686 --> 00:52:39.246 people and that could happen again, in less than 50 years, 00:52:39.246 --> 00:52:40.413 going forward. 00:52:46.078 --> 00:52:48.142 - [Narrator] With projections uncertain, 00:52:48.142 --> 00:52:51.614 what will the demands for energy, food and water be 00:52:51.614 --> 00:52:52.781 in the future? 00:52:54.976 --> 00:52:57.168 How will the other species with whom we share 00:52:57.168 --> 00:52:58.501 the planet fare? 00:53:03.750 --> 00:53:07.262 The next few decades will be a critical time to ensure 00:53:07.262 --> 00:53:10.800 the trend to smaller families and plan realistically 00:53:10.800 --> 00:53:12.217 for global aging. 00:53:19.258 --> 00:53:21.620 - Yes, there are huge challenges, 00:53:21.620 --> 00:53:25.713 but the biggest risk we face of all is inaction. 00:53:25.713 --> 00:53:29.589 We are not spectators to a world coming apart at the seams. 00:53:29.589 --> 00:53:33.800 If we mobilize our skills and our incomes and our wealth, 00:53:33.800 --> 00:53:38.135 even to a modest extent, we can help shift the world onto 00:53:38.135 --> 00:53:42.093 a path that is one of shared prosperity, 00:53:42.093 --> 00:53:45.705 that is one of environmental sustainability. 00:53:45.705 --> 00:53:48.988 In the end, the choice is ours. 00:53:48.988 --> 00:53:51.738 (calming music) 00:54:05.271 --> 00:54:07.416 - [Narrator] On Nova's website delve deeper into the 00:54:07.416 --> 00:54:10.145 issues raised in this program hear more 00:54:10.145 --> 00:54:12.456 from the experts test your understanding 00:54:12.456 --> 00:54:14.854 of global trends learn how you can get 00:54:14.854 --> 00:54:17.937 involved and more find it on PBS.org. 00:54:19.097 --> 00:54:22.097 (triumphant music) 00:55:19.066 --> 00:55:22.492 Nova is a production of WGBH Boston, 00:55:22.492 --> 00:55:25.216 major funding for Nova is provided by 00:55:25.216 --> 00:55:27.598 the Park Foundation dedicated to 00:55:27.598 --> 00:55:30.265 education and quality television 00:55:35.705 --> 00:55:40.097 - [Man] we see teacher of the year, we see kids reaching 00:55:40.097 --> 00:55:43.053 their potential it's what inspires us to 00:55:43.053 --> 00:55:46.636 create software that helps you reach yours. 00:55:48.369 --> 00:55:50.678 - [Woman] Science it has given us the 00:55:50.678 --> 00:55:52.980 framework to help make wireless 00:55:52.980 --> 00:55:57.147 communications clear, Sprint is proud to support Nova. 00:56:02.867 --> 00:56:04.875 - [Man] Funding for World in the Balance 00:56:04.875 --> 00:56:06.808 is provided by 00:56:06.808 --> 00:56:09.225 Marguerite and Jerry Lenfest, 00:56:10.469 --> 00:56:13.926 the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, 00:56:13.926 --> 00:56:16.060 the Richard and Rhoda Goldman Fund 00:56:16.060 --> 00:56:18.646 sponsor of the Goldman Environmental Prize 00:56:18.646 --> 00:56:21.853 and the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation. 00:56:21.853 --> 00:56:23.838 Major funding for Nova is also provided 00:56:23.838 --> 00:56:26.141 by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting 00:56:26.141 --> 00:56:29.391 and by PBS viewers like you, thank you. 00:56:30.770 --> 00:56:33.520 (ominous music) 00:56:42.556 --> 00:56:45.397 - [Narrator] In the elementary school of Oguchi, Japan, 00:56:45.397 --> 00:56:49.564 the silence is more striking than the voices of children. 00:56:52.536 --> 00:56:56.131 In a spacious classroom, commanding the undivided attention 00:56:56.131 --> 00:57:00.298 of his teacher, 11-year-old Daiki Sato sits alone. 00:57:03.231 --> 00:57:07.151 Since kindergarten, he's been the only student in his class, 00:57:07.151 --> 00:57:10.901 because of a startling decline in birthrates. 00:57:11.979 --> 00:57:14.908 By the end of the century, Japan's population is expected 00:57:14.908 --> 00:57:19.211 to shrink by half, with one out of every three people 00:57:19.211 --> 00:57:20.044 retired. 00:57:22.352 --> 00:57:24.269 And Japan is not alone. 00:57:26.269 --> 00:57:27.854 Over the next 50 years, 00:57:27.854 --> 00:57:31.893 Europe is projected to lose 63 million people, 00:57:31.893 --> 00:57:34.976 while Russia shrinks almost 20%. 00:57:36.662 --> 00:57:40.412 As elders over 60 outnumber children under four, 00:57:40.412 --> 00:57:44.579 the economic and social changes will be wrenching. 00:57:45.598 --> 00:57:48.120 - We're talking about a society in the future that's never 00:57:48.120 --> 00:57:49.599 existed in the past, 00:57:49.599 --> 00:57:52.765 one that is literally an old folk's home. 00:57:52.765 --> 00:57:56.609 So we know that the decline of many industrial 00:57:56.609 --> 00:58:00.578 countries is already written in stone. 00:58:00.578 --> 00:58:03.653 - [Narrator] Yet, rising longevity is not just transforming 00:58:03.653 --> 00:58:05.736 the industrialized world. 00:58:07.266 --> 00:58:09.756 More children in developing countries are surviving 00:58:09.756 --> 00:58:11.173 than ever before. 00:58:13.443 --> 00:58:17.205 Today, the largest generation of youth in history is 00:58:17.205 --> 00:58:19.554 entering their reproductive years, 00:58:19.554 --> 00:58:22.221 igniting an explosion of births. 00:58:24.013 --> 00:58:28.011 As global population climbs from over six to nine billion, 00:58:28.011 --> 00:58:32.178 the social and environmental strains will be enormous. 00:58:33.826 --> 00:58:36.831 Our world is now careening in two completely different 00:58:36.831 --> 00:58:41.083 directions as youthful nations reel from rising numbers 00:58:41.083 --> 00:58:44.083 while old ones grapple with decline. 00:58:46.923 --> 00:58:50.330 - You see a huge generation gap across countries emerging, 00:58:50.330 --> 00:58:53.519 that's going to translate into a more polarized world 00:58:53.519 --> 00:58:56.677 society, and those disparities 00:58:56.677 --> 00:58:59.594 are potentially very destabilizing. 00:59:01.285 --> 00:59:04.402 - [Narrator] Join us for a journey across four continents 00:59:04.402 --> 00:59:07.478 as we peer into the demographic divide reshaping 00:59:07.478 --> 00:59:11.141 our world and confronting us with stark choices for 00:59:11.141 --> 00:59:12.058 the future. 00:59:14.891 --> 00:59:18.335 World in the Balance, The People Paradox. 00:59:18.335 --> 00:59:19.752 Up next, on Nova. 00:59:23.393 --> 00:59:26.310 (triumphant music) 00:59:38.617 --> 00:59:41.594 - [Man] Major funding for Nova is provided by, 00:59:41.594 --> 00:59:43.913 the Park Foundation dedicated to 00:59:43.913 --> 00:59:46.663 education and quality television. 00:59:49.180 --> 00:59:53.327 - [Woman] Science, it's given us the framework to help make 00:59:53.327 --> 00:59:55.827 wireless communications clear. 00:59:57.187 --> 00:59:59.854 Sprint is proud to support Nova. 01:00:03.805 --> 01:00:06.055 - [Man] We see an inventor, 01:00:06.922 --> 01:00:09.658 at Microsoft your potential inspires us 01:00:09.658 --> 01:00:13.674 to create software that helps you reach it, 01:00:13.674 --> 01:00:16.007 your potential, our passion. 01:00:18.792 --> 01:00:20.770 - [Man] Funding for World in the Balance 01:00:20.770 --> 01:00:24.437 is provided by Marguerite and Jerry Lenfest, 01:00:26.290 --> 01:00:29.744 the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, 01:00:29.744 --> 01:00:31.854 the Richard and Rhoda Goldman Fund 01:00:31.854 --> 01:00:34.467 sponsor of the Goldman Environmental Prize 01:00:34.467 --> 01:00:37.769 and the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, 01:00:37.769 --> 01:00:39.212 major funding for Nova is 01:00:39.212 --> 01:00:42.085 also provided by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting 01:00:42.085 --> 01:00:45.335 and by PBS viewers like you, thank you. 01:01:10.015 --> 01:01:11.443 - [Narrator] Deep in the heart of India, 01:01:11.443 --> 01:01:15.356 towers the Taj Mahal, a lavish mausoleum built to honor 01:01:15.356 --> 01:01:19.356 a queen who died giving birth to her 14th child. 01:01:22.310 --> 01:01:25.637 It's a haunting symbol for a country that will soon surpass 01:01:25.637 --> 01:01:28.916 China as the world's most populous nation, 01:01:28.916 --> 01:01:32.083 with over a billion and a half people. 01:01:34.885 --> 01:01:38.420 Beyond its walls, lies the urban sprawl of India's fastest 01:01:38.420 --> 01:01:42.318 growing state, Uttar Pradesh, with more people than all 01:01:42.318 --> 01:01:44.818 but four nations in the world. 01:01:46.537 --> 01:01:50.926 Its population of 177 million is crammed into an area 01:01:50.926 --> 01:01:52.676 the size of Colorado. 01:01:54.848 --> 01:01:59.015 Every three years, its numbers swell by another 10 million. 01:02:00.774 --> 01:02:04.394 Yet the rapid growth here masks a stunning success across 01:02:04.394 --> 01:02:07.873 India, where fertility has plummeted from an average of six 01:02:07.873 --> 01:02:10.206 children per woman to three. 01:02:11.541 --> 01:02:14.955 This trend offers hope that India's population might stop 01:02:14.955 --> 01:02:16.705 growing this century. 01:02:20.217 --> 01:02:23.128 But the outcome depends on whether the northern states 01:02:23.128 --> 01:02:26.739 can repeat the success of the south where birthrates 01:02:26.739 --> 01:02:29.239 are almost as low as Europe's. 01:02:31.117 --> 01:02:33.935 - And the south of India, of course, is very educated. 01:02:33.935 --> 01:02:36.164 However, the opposite is the case in the north, 01:02:36.164 --> 01:02:40.042 and that's where India's demographic future really lies. 01:02:40.042 --> 01:02:43.075 In a state like Uttar Pradesh, where women average about 01:02:43.075 --> 01:02:46.130 five children each in their lifetime, 01:02:46.130 --> 01:02:49.434 and they have very high levels of illiteracy, 01:02:49.434 --> 01:02:51.747 this is where the real battle for India's future 01:02:51.747 --> 01:02:53.580 is going to be fought. 01:02:56.243 --> 01:02:58.858 - [Narrator] If this battle isn't won within two decades, 01:02:58.858 --> 01:03:01.801 India's population, instead of stabilizing, 01:03:01.801 --> 01:03:04.134 could nearly double by 2050. 01:03:06.895 --> 01:03:09.929 With U.S support, Dr. Ravi Anand has organized 01:03:09.929 --> 01:03:12.682 a network of doctors across Uttar Pradesh 01:03:12.682 --> 01:03:16.015 to offer healthcare and family planning. 01:03:17.239 --> 01:03:19.394 - I would say this is our window of opportunity. 01:03:19.394 --> 01:03:23.689 If we do not take all the measures that we can, 01:03:23.689 --> 01:03:27.681 in every possible manner, to check the population now, 01:03:27.681 --> 01:03:31.848 then India will never be able to tackle this problem. 01:03:33.310 --> 01:03:35.713 - [Narrator] Yet Ravi is well aware that if progress is 01:03:35.713 --> 01:03:39.880 going to be made, the lives of women here must improve. 01:03:41.742 --> 01:03:44.814 In a nearby slum, she checks on a 30-year-old mother named 01:03:44.814 --> 01:03:48.981 Gooday, who almost died delivering her eighth child. 01:03:50.706 --> 01:03:53.295 She was rushed to the hospital unconscious, 01:03:53.295 --> 01:03:56.378 after three days of obstructed labor. 01:03:58.101 --> 01:03:59.701 - [Translator] So, now tell me, 01:03:59.701 --> 01:04:04.037 I hear you had great problems with this birth? 01:04:04.037 --> 01:04:05.588 - [Translator] Terrible problems. 01:04:05.588 --> 01:04:08.195 The midwife that had delivered my other babies came, 01:04:08.195 --> 01:04:10.804 but when she touched my belly she said, 01:04:10.804 --> 01:04:12.993 this baby's life is in danger. 01:04:12.993 --> 01:04:17.145 You must find the money to get to the hospital. 01:04:17.145 --> 01:04:19.351 - [Narrator] After delivering a baby girl, 01:04:19.351 --> 01:04:22.292 Gooday begged doctors to be sterilized, 01:04:22.292 --> 01:04:26.644 but she was overruled by her mother-in-law and husband. 01:04:26.644 --> 01:04:29.840 - She says she's petrified of another pregnancy 01:04:29.840 --> 01:04:33.383 and childbirth, and she doesn't want to have another baby. 01:04:33.383 --> 01:04:36.210 But she's the one who's least involved in this decision 01:04:36.210 --> 01:04:37.266 making. 01:04:37.266 --> 01:04:39.662 And that is why we counsel the husband 01:04:39.662 --> 01:04:42.438 and the mother-in-law, because we call them 01:04:42.438 --> 01:04:45.688 the gatekeepers to the health services. 01:04:48.418 --> 01:04:51.572 - [Translator] So, I hear you want a second son? 01:04:51.572 --> 01:04:55.088 - [Translator] I need at least one more. 01:04:55.088 --> 01:04:56.756 - [Translator] You have only one son? 01:04:56.756 --> 01:05:00.261 And isn't one son good enough for you? 01:05:00.261 --> 01:05:01.628 - [Translator] He's 40 years old, 01:05:01.628 --> 01:05:05.192 and he is the only son left alive. 01:05:05.192 --> 01:05:07.248 - [Translator] And daughters? 01:05:07.248 --> 01:05:08.510 - [Translator] I have three daughters, 01:05:08.510 --> 01:05:12.726 but they've gone to live with their husband's families. 01:05:12.726 --> 01:05:14.239 - [Translator] Listen, today, 01:05:14.239 --> 01:05:17.572 one son is just as much as you may need. 01:05:20.192 --> 01:05:21.392 - [Translator] I already had two daughters 01:05:21.392 --> 01:05:23.509 when Abidi arrived at our house. 01:05:23.509 --> 01:05:26.916 She saw that I was hungry and exhausted, and she asked me, 01:05:26.916 --> 01:05:29.489 "Why don't you use birth control?" 01:05:29.489 --> 01:05:31.549 I didn't know anything about it. 01:05:31.549 --> 01:05:35.132 But I knew I didn't want any more children. 01:05:36.877 --> 01:05:39.320 - [Narrator] Bimla was just the kind of girl Abidi 01:05:39.320 --> 01:05:40.653 wanted to reach. 01:05:42.947 --> 01:05:46.346 She told Bimla that she could legally use the pill, 01:05:46.346 --> 01:05:49.429 even without her family's permission. 01:05:52.941 --> 01:05:54.454 - [Translator] I was talking with my friend, 01:05:54.454 --> 01:05:57.100 and my mother-in-law was listening from behind the door. 01:05:57.100 --> 01:06:00.506 As soon as she left, my mother-in-law started yelling, 01:06:00.506 --> 01:06:04.799 "You must have a son. Stop taking the pills." 01:06:04.799 --> 01:06:07.142 Although she tried to beat me into submission, 01:06:07.142 --> 01:06:10.430 I was sure I didn't want any more children. 01:06:10.430 --> 01:06:13.293 I could see that large families were often poorer. 01:06:13.293 --> 01:06:14.836 Their children didn't have clothes to wear, 01:06:14.836 --> 01:06:17.354 or food to eat, that they played in dirt 01:06:17.354 --> 01:06:20.104 and they didn't get an education. 01:06:24.140 --> 01:06:28.307 - [Narrator] With help from Abidi, Bimla learned tailoring. 01:06:29.780 --> 01:06:32.129 Soon she had enough money help her husband buy 01:06:32.129 --> 01:06:35.962 a new house and send their children to school. 01:06:38.440 --> 01:06:41.049 - The reality, in India, is that many, 01:06:41.049 --> 01:06:44.883 many women are very empowered, but the majority are 01:06:44.883 --> 01:06:46.226 disempowered. 01:06:46.226 --> 01:06:49.393 So when women want to change the way their roles are 01:06:49.393 --> 01:06:52.896 defined, they cannot do that if they're economically 01:06:52.896 --> 01:06:57.141 vulnerable and dependent, because the price then is that if 01:06:57.141 --> 01:06:58.936 you are left destitute, if you're abandoned, if you're 01:06:58.936 --> 01:07:01.457 thrown out of the house, you have no way to survive if you 01:07:01.457 --> 01:07:02.718 have no income. 01:07:02.718 --> 01:07:05.953 So I strongly believe that one way forward, 01:07:05.953 --> 01:07:09.145 to increase the momentum of social and cultural change, 01:07:09.145 --> 01:07:13.312 is to allow women to have employment opportunities. 01:07:17.223 --> 01:07:20.077 - [Narrator] Yet these opportunities may be hard to come by, 01:07:20.077 --> 01:07:22.994 even as change sweeps across India. 01:07:25.765 --> 01:07:28.075 To keep pace with its growing population, 01:07:28.075 --> 01:07:32.242 the country must create six million new jobs a year. 01:07:35.004 --> 01:07:38.815 But even its dazzling economic growth of 8% 01:07:38.815 --> 01:07:41.326 is not enough to prevent unemployment, 01:07:41.326 --> 01:07:43.993 already widespread, from rising. 01:07:45.527 --> 01:07:48.765 And a new problem is looming as population pressures 01:07:48.765 --> 01:07:51.582 confront a vast number of towns and villages 01:07:51.582 --> 01:07:53.999 with chronic water shortages. 01:07:55.796 --> 01:07:59.725 - In India, water tables are now falling in most states, 01:07:59.725 --> 01:08:02.716 including the Punjab, which is the bread basket of India. 01:08:02.716 --> 01:08:05.614 And this is making it more difficult to expand food 01:08:05.614 --> 01:08:08.348 production at a time when the population is projected 01:08:08.348 --> 01:08:11.681 to grow by another half billion by 2050. 01:08:13.394 --> 01:08:17.009 - India faces really huge environmental problems 01:08:17.009 --> 01:08:21.059 from rapid population growth, and it might have a hard time 01:08:21.059 --> 01:08:23.501 growing enough food for itself. 01:08:23.501 --> 01:08:26.064 On the other hand, it's becoming a center of software, 01:08:26.064 --> 01:08:29.471 so if it makes a transition to becoming more of a high tech, 01:08:29.471 --> 01:08:31.653 knowledge-based society, 01:08:31.653 --> 01:08:34.616 then it probably could feed itself. 01:08:34.616 --> 01:08:39.408 It has huge numbers of very smart, well educated people. 01:08:39.408 --> 01:08:42.645 - So we have got such a large number of intellectuals in 01:08:42.645 --> 01:08:46.149 every field that you cannot write off India and say, 01:08:46.149 --> 01:08:49.313 oh, population growth will finish this country. 01:08:49.313 --> 01:08:50.341 We'll be doomed. 01:08:50.341 --> 01:08:52.527 There'll be no drinking water, no housing, 01:08:52.527 --> 01:08:54.163 no nothing, no jobs. 01:08:54.163 --> 01:08:57.913 Absolutely unreal, unscientific, it is drama. 01:08:59.928 --> 01:09:04.304 - [Narrator] India is poised on a knife edge. 01:09:04.304 --> 01:09:07.076 Headed in the right direction, it will still take years 01:09:07.076 --> 01:09:10.243 to reach the coveted two-child family. 01:09:11.585 --> 01:09:14.029 And what if the average family size turns out 01:09:14.029 --> 01:09:15.697 to be slightly more? 01:09:17.935 --> 01:09:20.879 - Suppose in India they really did achieve two children 01:09:20.879 --> 01:09:23.908 per couple in, let's say, 15 years. 01:09:23.908 --> 01:09:28.314 Then they would rise to about 1.6 billion by 2050. 01:09:28.314 --> 01:09:31.685 But the key is, if couples have, on average, 01:09:31.685 --> 01:09:33.750 about two and a half children, 01:09:33.750 --> 01:09:36.189 India would get its second billion by the middle 01:09:36.189 --> 01:09:37.522 of this century. 01:09:38.853 --> 01:09:43.069 - [Narrator] And the same is true for the world. 01:09:43.069 --> 01:09:46.312 A common Hindu wedding blessing prays that a wife will bear 01:09:46.312 --> 01:09:49.645 eight sons, but if she doesn't have any, 01:09:50.501 --> 01:09:53.001 there could be a price to pay. 01:09:54.250 --> 01:09:58.250 And that's why Manisha tried to intervene early. 01:10:05.397 --> 01:10:09.222 The most shocking proof of what can go wrong are the brides 01:10:09.222 --> 01:10:11.235 who've been doused in kerosene 01:10:11.235 --> 01:10:14.902 and set ablaze by angry in-laws or husbands. 01:10:17.715 --> 01:10:22.246 An estimated 25,000 women are killed or maimed each year 01:10:22.246 --> 01:10:25.204 over dowry and domestic disputes or 01:10:25.204 --> 01:10:28.204 even their failure to produce a son. 01:10:31.468 --> 01:10:34.836 - Bride burning is common in India. 01:10:34.836 --> 01:10:37.370 And since women are so dispensable, and these young, 01:10:37.370 --> 01:10:40.255 little girls, you know, between the ages of 15 to 24 01:10:40.255 --> 01:10:43.429 are the most vulnerable, girls will get burned, 01:10:43.429 --> 01:10:44.856 they will get poisoned. 01:10:44.856 --> 01:10:47.433 And so, therefore, a girl in the husband's house, 01:10:47.433 --> 01:10:49.868 at least for the first 10 or 15 years, 01:10:49.868 --> 01:10:52.201 always walks on a tightrope. 01:10:57.329 --> 01:10:59.770 - [Narrator] Gender discrimination takes place even among 01:10:59.770 --> 01:11:00.770 the wealthy. 01:11:02.963 --> 01:11:06.031 Upper class parents, committed to a two-child family, 01:11:06.031 --> 01:11:10.717 have sonograms to make sure that they've conceived a son. 01:11:10.717 --> 01:11:13.917 Although this doctor refuses to reveal a fetus's sex, 01:11:13.917 --> 01:11:16.167 not everyone is as ethical. 01:11:17.834 --> 01:11:21.500 Millions of females are aborted, leaving India 01:11:21.500 --> 01:11:24.583 with 35 million fewer women than men. 01:11:27.347 --> 01:11:31.138 - There was an article saying that better dead than burned, 01:11:31.138 --> 01:11:33.644 meaning that it's better that you have sex determination 01:11:33.644 --> 01:11:36.036 rather than be burned in your in-laws' household. 01:11:36.036 --> 01:11:37.765 And the newspaper asked me to write a rejoinder, 01:11:37.765 --> 01:11:40.744 and I wrote a rejoinder saying, neither dead nor burned. 01:11:40.744 --> 01:11:42.769 - India wants to reduce population growth, 01:11:42.769 --> 01:11:44.730 but it certainly doesn't want to reduce it through 01:11:44.730 --> 01:11:46.586 sex-selective abortion. 01:11:46.586 --> 01:11:50.230 In fact, it is actually illegal now to test to see what 01:11:50.230 --> 01:11:52.883 the gender of a fetus is. 01:11:52.883 --> 01:11:55.326 But I think the single most important thing India can do 01:11:55.326 --> 01:11:59.626 today, demographically, is to somehow make the birth of 01:11:59.626 --> 01:12:04.164 a girl child as welcome as the birth of a boy child, 01:12:04.164 --> 01:12:06.652 because the goal of most developing countries is 01:12:06.652 --> 01:12:09.902 to reach this magical two-child family. 01:12:19.946 --> 01:12:22.307 - [Narrator] Abidi Shah, a social worker, 01:12:22.307 --> 01:12:25.175 has seen that when women have greater access to education 01:12:25.175 --> 01:12:28.258 and job training, their status rises. 01:12:30.854 --> 01:12:33.925 16 years ago, she visited a village on the outskirts 01:12:33.925 --> 01:12:35.008 of New Delhi. 01:12:37.760 --> 01:12:40.428 Dismayed by the plight of young girls there, 01:12:40.428 --> 01:12:42.011 she decided to act. 01:12:43.995 --> 01:12:48.162 - There wasn't any sense among the girls of the adolescence, 01:12:49.139 --> 01:12:52.801 because they had lost their childhood already. 01:12:52.801 --> 01:12:55.872 They had to look after their younger brother and sister. 01:12:55.872 --> 01:12:57.262 They had to cook the food. 01:12:57.262 --> 01:12:58.772 They had to clean the house. 01:12:58.772 --> 01:13:00.839 They had to fetch the drinking water. 01:13:00.839 --> 01:13:03.908 No education for them, no food for them, 01:13:03.908 --> 01:13:05.658 no clothing for them. 01:13:07.235 --> 01:13:10.064 - [Narrator] First Abidi had to convince a skeptical 01:13:10.064 --> 01:13:11.911 community to let her teach vocational 01:13:11.911 --> 01:13:15.161 and health classes to adolescent girls. 01:13:16.758 --> 01:13:19.241 Next, she had to show the girls themselves 01:13:19.241 --> 01:13:22.574 how education could improve their lives. 01:13:24.876 --> 01:13:29.043 - I just said, do you want same life as you are living here? 01:13:30.263 --> 01:13:31.946 They said, no, I want better life. 01:13:31.946 --> 01:13:34.381 "What sort of life do you want?" 01:13:34.381 --> 01:13:38.548 "The life I see on the TV. The life you are living." 01:13:39.572 --> 01:13:42.312 So I said, "Then what will you do?" 01:13:42.312 --> 01:13:46.191 "We can't do anything. That's our luck, that's our destiny." 01:13:46.191 --> 01:13:48.332 I said, "No. This is not your destiny. 01:13:48.332 --> 01:13:50.582 "You can change your life." 01:13:53.497 --> 01:13:55.758 - [Narrator] One young woman who attended the program 01:13:55.758 --> 01:13:56.591 was Bimla. 01:13:58.997 --> 01:14:02.574 At age 13, her father had arranged her marriage 01:14:02.574 --> 01:14:05.657 and forced her to drop out of school. 01:14:06.957 --> 01:14:09.647 - One of the major reasons for the family size 01:14:09.647 --> 01:14:14.444 to be really large in Northern India is the son preference, 01:14:14.444 --> 01:14:17.300 because it's the son who stays with the family, 01:14:17.300 --> 01:14:21.471 and he's expected to look after his old parents. 01:14:21.471 --> 01:14:24.178 And girls are always considered as, 01:14:24.178 --> 01:14:27.137 somebody else's asset, not mine. 01:14:27.137 --> 01:14:30.286 - But the point is the strategy of survival demands 01:14:30.286 --> 01:14:34.000 that you must have one or two sons, otherwise you will 01:14:34.000 --> 01:14:37.120 be left high and dry, not only in the old age, 01:14:37.120 --> 01:14:38.870 throughout your life. 01:14:40.222 --> 01:14:42.757 - [Narrator] Having a second son raises the odds for 01:14:42.757 --> 01:14:46.257 Gooday that at least one boy will survive, 01:14:47.432 --> 01:14:50.633 especially since one in 10 children in Uttar Pradesh 01:14:50.633 --> 01:14:52.300 die before age five. 01:14:54.763 --> 01:14:57.263 Gooday has lost three infants. 01:14:58.916 --> 01:15:01.574 Ravi urges her to bring her children to the clinic for 01:15:01.574 --> 01:15:02.657 vaccinations. 01:15:05.387 --> 01:15:08.234 If the family trusts their son will survive, 01:15:08.234 --> 01:15:11.401 the pressure to bear another may ease. 01:15:12.755 --> 01:15:15.357 - Women in India really don't have control over their 01:15:15.357 --> 01:15:19.421 reproductive lives because all sexual reproductive health 01:15:19.421 --> 01:15:23.151 decisions are essentially made by men. 01:15:23.151 --> 01:15:27.449 And so you can't deal with an issue like population by 01:15:27.449 --> 01:15:28.282 itself. 01:15:29.171 --> 01:15:33.094 You have to look at the issue of infant mortality, literacy, 01:15:33.094 --> 01:15:37.219 or women's status, because it's all very interlinked. 01:15:37.219 --> 01:15:39.592 This is a patriarchal society. 01:15:39.592 --> 01:15:43.759 And I think gender lies at the heart of the problem, really. 01:15:49.204 --> 01:15:51.557 - [Narrator] On the edge of the Deccan Plains, 01:15:51.557 --> 01:15:54.164 barefoot children walk towards their school in 01:15:54.164 --> 01:15:56.497 the rural village of Saswad. 01:16:01.629 --> 01:16:05.826 The daily rhythm of life here masks an unusual event 01:16:05.826 --> 01:16:08.993 unfolding in the heart of the village. 01:16:10.168 --> 01:16:13.789 Newly married couples play games to get to know each other 01:16:13.789 --> 01:16:17.956 as they wait to have their wedding portraits taken. 01:16:18.916 --> 01:16:21.141 The gathering has been organized by social worker 01:16:21.141 --> 01:16:24.306 Manisha Gupta to help young men and women bridge 01:16:24.306 --> 01:16:26.639 India's stark gender divide. 01:16:29.018 --> 01:16:31.167 - In a traditional Indian society, 01:16:31.167 --> 01:16:34.322 95% of marriages still are arranged marriages. 01:16:34.322 --> 01:16:37.357 And most often than not, the bride and the groom are 01:16:37.357 --> 01:16:39.081 strangers to each other. 01:16:39.081 --> 01:16:42.623 And one would say that there's a 50% chance of things 01:16:42.623 --> 01:16:46.307 going wrong in a rural marriage where it's arranged, 01:16:46.307 --> 01:16:49.333 and she's barely 15 or 16, and he's not much older. 01:16:49.333 --> 01:16:51.687 And we're talking of, really, adolescents, 01:16:51.687 --> 01:16:54.639 who are building a life and having children. 01:16:54.639 --> 01:16:56.389 It's not an easy job. 01:17:00.490 --> 01:17:02.640 - [Narrator] Social taboos pushed aside, 01:17:02.640 --> 01:17:04.572 girl and boys in separate groups 01:17:04.572 --> 01:17:08.739 hear frank talk about sex and how to use birth control. 01:17:10.967 --> 01:17:12.967 The stakes are enormous. 01:17:14.561 --> 01:17:18.201 The age structure of India's population resembles a pyramid, 01:17:18.201 --> 01:17:21.750 with vast numbers of youth at its base. 01:17:21.750 --> 01:17:24.880 Half the country, mirroring the world at large, 01:17:24.880 --> 01:17:28.380 is under 25 and reaching reproductive age. 01:17:31.119 --> 01:17:34.567 If couples in this generation have only two children, 01:17:34.567 --> 01:17:37.031 in effect replacing themselves, 01:17:37.031 --> 01:17:39.781 population growth will soon halt. 01:17:41.319 --> 01:17:44.822 Yet for Manisha, it's far from clear if India's youth 01:17:44.822 --> 01:17:47.890 will follow this radical trend and throw off 01:17:47.890 --> 01:17:50.057 the shackles of tradition. 01:17:53.288 --> 01:17:54.921 As they pose for their portraits, 01:17:54.921 --> 01:17:57.394 she asks them how many children they want, 01:17:57.394 --> 01:17:59.714 if the gender matters, and how they feel 01:17:59.714 --> 01:18:01.381 about birth control. 01:18:03.061 --> 01:18:04.997 - A lot of the couples said that they'd be happy with two 01:18:04.997 --> 01:18:05.830 children. 01:18:05.830 --> 01:18:07.175 And we said, "What gender?" 01:18:07.175 --> 01:18:08.646 And they said it doesn't matter. 01:18:08.646 --> 01:18:10.506 It's very nice of them to say it. 01:18:10.506 --> 01:18:13.164 10 years ago our people wouldn't have even said it. 01:18:13.164 --> 01:18:15.353 But I'm not really sure what would happen in 01:18:15.353 --> 01:18:19.270 the household if there were just two daughters. 01:18:21.394 --> 01:18:24.465 - [Narrator] Daughters are seen as an economic liability 01:18:24.465 --> 01:18:27.831 because parents must provide a dowry of cash or gifts to 01:18:27.831 --> 01:18:29.164 marry them off.