[Script Info] Title: [Events] Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.44,0:00:03.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(ominous music) Dialogue: 0,0:00:12.29,0:00:15.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] In the elementary\Nschool of Oguchi, Japan, Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.42,0:00:19.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the silence is more striking\Nthan the voices of children. Dialogue: 0,0:00:22.31,0:00:24.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In a spacious classroom commanding Dialogue: 0,0:00:24.28,0:00:27.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the undivided attention of his teacher, Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.01,0:00:29.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,11-year-old Daiki Sato sits alone. Dialogue: 0,0:00:33.08,0:00:35.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Since kindergarten he's\Nbeen the only student Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.85,0:00:38.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in his class because of a startling Dialogue: 0,0:00:38.03,0:00:39.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,decline in birthrates. Dialogue: 0,0:00:41.64,0:00:45.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By the end of the century\NJapan's population is expected Dialogue: 0,0:00:45.01,0:00:48.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to shrink by half, with\None out of every three Dialogue: 0,0:00:48.51,0:00:49.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,people retired. Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.06,0:00:53.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And Japan is not alone. Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.05,0:00:57.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Over the next 50 years Dialogue: 0,0:00:57.72,0:01:00.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Europe is projected to lose 63 million Dialogue: 0,0:01:00.61,0:01:04.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,people while Russia shrinks almost 20%, Dialogue: 0,0:01:06.58,0:01:09.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as elders over 60 outnumber children Dialogue: 0,0:01:09.27,0:01:12.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,under four, the economic\Nand social changes Dialogue: 0,0:01:12.72,0:01:14.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will be wrenching. Dialogue: 0,0:01:15.43,0:01:17.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- But we're talking about a\Nsociety in the future that's Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.65,0:01:20.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,never existed in past,\None that is you know Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.70,0:01:23.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,literally an old folks home so we know Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.95,0:01:26.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the decline of many industrial Dialogue: 0,0:01:26.54,0:01:29.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,countries is already written in stone. Dialogue: 0,0:01:30.65,0:01:32.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Yet rising\Nlongevity is not just Dialogue: 0,0:01:32.79,0:01:35.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,transforming the industrialized world, Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.08,0:01:38.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more children in developing countries Dialogue: 0,0:01:38.94,0:01:41.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are surviving than ever before. Dialogue: 0,0:01:43.50,0:01:46.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Today the largest generation of youth in Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.06,0:01:48.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,history is entering their reproductive Dialogue: 0,0:01:48.41,0:01:51.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,years igniting an explosion of births. Dialogue: 0,0:01:53.75,0:01:57.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As global population climbs\Nfrom six to nine billion, Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.87,0:02:02.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the social and environmental\Nstrains will be enormous. Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.63,0:02:06.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our world is now careening\Ninto completely different Dialogue: 0,0:02:06.73,0:02:09.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,directions as youthful nations reel from Dialogue: 0,0:02:09.48,0:02:13.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,rising numbers while old\Nones grapple with decline. Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.77,0:02:19.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- You see a huge generation gap across Dialogue: 0,0:02:19.03,0:02:20.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,countries emerging that's going to Dialogue: 0,0:02:20.76,0:02:23.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,translate into a more polarized world Dialogue: 0,0:02:23.28,0:02:26.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,society and those disparities are Dialogue: 0,0:02:26.58,0:02:29.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,potentially very destabilizing. Dialogue: 0,0:02:31.08,0:02:34.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Join us for a journey\Nacross four continents as Dialogue: 0,0:02:34.54,0:02:37.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we peer into the demographic divide Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.01,0:02:39.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,reshaping our world and confronting us Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.77,0:02:42.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with stark choices for the future. Dialogue: 0,0:02:44.68,0:02:48.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,World in the Balance, The People Paradox. Dialogue: 0,0:02:48.27,0:02:49.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Up next on Nova. Dialogue: 0,0:02:53.25,0:02:56.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(anticipatory music) Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.50,0:03:11.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Man] Major funding\Nfor Nova is provided by, Dialogue: 0,0:03:11.44,0:03:13.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Park Foundation dedicated to Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.74,0:03:16.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,education and quality television. Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.02,0:03:23.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Woman] Science, it's given\Nus the framework to help make Dialogue: 0,0:03:23.27,0:03:25.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,wireless communications clear. Dialogue: 0,0:03:26.97,0:03:29.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Sprint is proud to support Nova. Dialogue: 0,0:03:33.69,0:03:35.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Man] We see an inventor, Dialogue: 0,0:03:36.80,0:03:39.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at Microsoft your potential inspires us Dialogue: 0,0:03:39.68,0:03:43.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to create software that\Nhelps you reach it, Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.41,0:03:45.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,your potential, our passion. Dialogue: 0,0:03:48.69,0:03:52.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Man] Funding for World in\Nthe Balance is provided by Dialogue: 0,0:03:52.55,0:03:54.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Marguerite and Jerry Lenfest, Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.12,0:03:59.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the John D. and Catherine\NT. MacArthur Foundation, Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.57,0:04:01.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Richard and Rhoda Goldman Fund Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.76,0:04:04.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sponsor of the Goldman Environmental Prize Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.30,0:04:07.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the William and\NFlora Hewlett Foundation, Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.52,0:04:08.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,major funding for Nova is Dialogue: 0,0:04:08.82,0:04:11.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,also provided by the Corporation\Nfor Public Broadcasting Dialogue: 0,0:04:11.77,0:04:15.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and by PBS viewers like you, thank you. Dialogue: 0,0:04:15.42,0:04:18.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(calming music) Dialogue: 0,0:04:39.68,0:04:41.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Deep in the heart of India, Dialogue: 0,0:04:41.29,0:04:44.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,towers the Taj Mahal a\Nlavish mausoleum built to Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.94,0:04:47.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,honor a queen who died giving birth to Dialogue: 0,0:04:47.66,0:04:48.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,her 14th child. Dialogue: 0,0:04:52.12,0:04:54.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a haunting symbol for a country Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.34,0:04:56.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that will soon surpass China as the Dialogue: 0,0:04:56.44,0:04:57.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,world's most populous nation with over Dialogue: 0,0:04:57.27,0:04:59.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a billion and a half people. Dialogue: 0,0:05:04.76,0:05:07.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Beyond its walls lies the urban sprawl Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.24,0:05:09.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of India's fastest growing state, Dialogue: 0,0:05:09.45,0:05:12.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Uttar Pradesh with more\Npeople than all but Dialogue: 0,0:05:12.40,0:05:14.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,four nations in the world. Dialogue: 0,0:05:16.34,0:05:20.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Its population of 177 million\Nis crammed into an area Dialogue: 0,0:05:20.92,0:05:22.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the size of Colorado. Dialogue: 0,0:05:24.67,0:05:28.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Every three years its numbers\Nswell by another 10 million Dialogue: 0,0:05:30.65,0:05:32.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,yet the rapid growth here masks a Dialogue: 0,0:05:32.90,0:05:35.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,stunning success across India where Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.30,0:05:37.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,fertility has plummeted from an average Dialogue: 0,0:05:37.35,0:05:40.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of six children per woman to three, Dialogue: 0,0:05:41.36,0:05:43.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this trend offers hope that India's Dialogue: 0,0:05:43.46,0:05:47.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,population might stop\Ngrowing this century. Dialogue: 0,0:05:50.07,0:05:52.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the outcome depends on whether Dialogue: 0,0:05:52.10,0:05:54.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the northern states can repeat the success Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.27,0:05:56.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the south where birthrates are Dialogue: 0,0:05:56.64,0:05:58.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,almost as low as Europe's. Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.97,0:06:03.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- And the south of India\Nof course is very educated Dialogue: 0,0:06:03.77,0:06:05.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,however the opposite is the case in the Dialogue: 0,0:06:05.42,0:06:07.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,north and that's where India's Dialogue: 0,0:06:07.43,0:06:10.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,demographic future really lies. Dialogue: 0,0:06:10.02,0:06:12.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In a state like Uttar Pradesh where women Dialogue: 0,0:06:12.60,0:06:14.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,average about five children each in their Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.96,0:06:18.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,lifetime and they have very high levels Dialogue: 0,0:06:18.31,0:06:20.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of illiteracy this is where the real Dialogue: 0,0:06:20.48,0:06:24.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,battle for India's future\Nis going to be fought. Dialogue: 0,0:06:26.16,0:06:27.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] If this\Nbattle isn't won within two Dialogue: 0,0:06:27.74,0:06:30.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,decades India's population instead of Dialogue: 0,0:06:30.42,0:06:33.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,stabilizing could nearly double by 2050. Dialogue: 0,0:06:36.73,0:06:39.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,With US support Dr. Ravi Anand has Dialogue: 0,0:06:39.34,0:06:41.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,organized a network of doctors across Dialogue: 0,0:06:41.31,0:06:45.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Uttar Pradesh to offer\Nhealthcare and family planning. Dialogue: 0,0:06:47.14,0:06:47.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- I would say this is a Dialogue: 0,0:06:47.97,0:06:50.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,window of opportunity if we do not take Dialogue: 0,0:06:50.49,0:06:53.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all the measures that we can in every Dialogue: 0,0:06:53.90,0:06:56.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,possible manner to check the population Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.97,0:07:01.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,now then India will never be\Nable to tackle this problem. Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.13,0:07:04.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Yet Ravi is well Dialogue: 0,0:07:04.20,0:07:06.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,aware that if progress is going to be Dialogue: 0,0:07:06.26,0:07:09.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,made the lives of women here must improve. Dialogue: 0,0:07:11.60,0:07:13.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the nearby slum she checks on Dialogue: 0,0:07:13.53,0:07:15.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a 30-year-old mother named Gooday who Dialogue: 0,0:07:15.82,0:07:19.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,almost died delivering her eighth child, Dialogue: 0,0:07:20.72,0:07:22.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,she was rushed to the hospital Dialogue: 0,0:07:22.08,0:07:26.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,unconscious after three\Ndays of obstructed labor. Dialogue: 0,0:07:27.95,0:07:29.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] So now tell me, I hear Dialogue: 0,0:07:29.86,0:07:33.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you had great problems with this birth. Dialogue: 0,0:07:33.90,0:07:35.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] Terrible\Nproblems the midwife that Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.95,0:07:38.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,delivered my other babies came but when Dialogue: 0,0:07:38.50,0:07:40.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,she touched my belly she said this Dialogue: 0,0:07:40.81,0:07:43.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,baby's life is in danger you must find Dialogue: 0,0:07:43.52,0:07:46.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the money to get to the hospital. Dialogue: 0,0:07:47.21,0:07:49.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] After delivering a baby girl Dialogue: 0,0:07:49.36,0:07:52.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Gooday begged doctors to be sterilized Dialogue: 0,0:07:52.09,0:07:53.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but she was overruled by her Dialogue: 0,0:07:53.45,0:07:55.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,mother-in-law and husband. Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.48,0:07:57.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- She said she's Dialogue: 0,0:07:57.35,0:07:59.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,petrified of another pregnancy and Dialogue: 0,0:07:59.78,0:08:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,childbirth and she doesn't want to have Dialogue: 0,0:08:02.00,0:08:04.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,another baby but she's the one who's Dialogue: 0,0:08:04.10,0:08:06.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,least involved in this decision making Dialogue: 0,0:08:06.99,0:08:09.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that is why we counsel the husband Dialogue: 0,0:08:09.42,0:08:12.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the mother-in-law because we call Dialogue: 0,0:08:12.18,0:08:15.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,them the gatekeepers\Nto the health services. Dialogue: 0,0:08:18.42,0:08:21.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] So I hear\Nyou want a second son. Dialogue: 0,0:08:21.42,0:08:24.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] I need at least one more. Dialogue: 0,0:08:24.91,0:08:26.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] If you have only one son, Dialogue: 0,0:08:26.64,0:08:30.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and isn't one son good enough for you? Dialogue: 0,0:08:30.28,0:08:31.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] He's 40 years old Dialogue: 0,0:08:31.42,0:08:34.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he is the only son left alive. Dialogue: 0,0:08:35.15,0:08:37.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] And daughters? Dialogue: 0,0:08:37.12,0:08:38.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] I have three daughters but Dialogue: 0,0:08:38.56,0:08:42.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they have gone to live with\Ntheir husband's families. Dialogue: 0,0:08:42.57,0:08:44.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] Listen today one son Dialogue: 0,0:08:44.80,0:08:47.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is just as much as you may need. Dialogue: 0,0:08:48.78,0:08:51.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- One of the major reasons\Nfor the family size to Dialogue: 0,0:08:51.56,0:08:54.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,be really large in Northern India is the Dialogue: 0,0:08:54.25,0:08:57.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,son preference because it's the son who Dialogue: 0,0:08:57.57,0:09:00.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,stays with the family and he's expected Dialogue: 0,0:09:00.32,0:09:03.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to look after his old parents and girls Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.94,0:09:08.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are always considered as\Nsomebody else's asset, not mine. Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.98,0:09:11.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- But the point is the strategy of Dialogue: 0,0:09:11.04,0:09:13.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,survival demands that you must have one Dialogue: 0,0:09:13.47,0:09:16.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or two sons otherwise you will be left Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.23,0:09:20.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,high and dry, not only no\Nold age throughout your life. Dialogue: 0,0:09:22.05,0:09:23.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Having a second son Dialogue: 0,0:09:23.66,0:09:25.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,raises the odds for Gooday that at least Dialogue: 0,0:09:25.69,0:09:27.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one boy will survive, Dialogue: 0,0:09:29.28,0:09:31.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,especially since one in 10 children in Dialogue: 0,0:09:31.31,0:09:34.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Uttar Pradesh dies before age five. Dialogue: 0,0:09:36.56,0:09:39.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Gooday has lost three infants. Dialogue: 0,0:09:40.91,0:09:42.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Ravi urges her to bring\Nher children to the Dialogue: 0,0:09:42.92,0:09:44.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,clinic for vaccinations, Dialogue: 0,0:09:47.27,0:09:50.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if the family trusts\Ntheir son will survive the Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.12,0:09:52.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,pressure to bear another may ease. Dialogue: 0,0:09:54.80,0:09:57.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Women in India really\Ndon't have control over Dialogue: 0,0:09:57.10,0:09:59.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,their reproductive lives because all Dialogue: 0,0:09:59.91,0:10:02.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sexual reproductive health decisions are Dialogue: 0,0:10:02.28,0:10:05.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,essentially made by men and you can't Dialogue: 0,0:10:05.78,0:10:09.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,deal with an issue like population by Dialogue: 0,0:10:09.21,0:10:12.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,itself, you have to look at the ratio of Dialogue: 0,0:10:12.26,0:10:16.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,infant mortality or\Nliteracy or women's status Dialogue: 0,0:10:16.88,0:10:19.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it's all very interlaced. Dialogue: 0,0:10:19.02,0:10:21.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is a patriarchal society and I Dialogue: 0,0:10:21.93,0:10:26.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,think gender lies at the\Nheart of the problem really. Dialogue: 0,0:10:31.18,0:10:33.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] On the edge\Nof the Deccan Plains Dialogue: 0,0:10:33.40,0:10:35.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,barefoot children walk towards their Dialogue: 0,0:10:35.13,0:10:38.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,school in the rural village of Saswad. Dialogue: 0,0:10:43.91,0:10:46.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The daily rhythm of life here masks an Dialogue: 0,0:10:46.51,0:10:50.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,unusual event unfolding in\Nthe heart of the village. Dialogue: 0,0:10:51.99,0:10:53.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Newly married couples play Dialogue: 0,0:10:53.55,0:10:55.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,games to get to know each other as they Dialogue: 0,0:10:55.86,0:10:59.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,wait to have their\Nwedding portraits taken. Dialogue: 0,0:11:00.74,0:11:02.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The gathering has been organized Dialogue: 0,0:11:02.06,0:11:04.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by social worker Manisha Gupta to help Dialogue: 0,0:11:04.66,0:11:08.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,young men and women bridge\NIndia's stark gender divide. Dialogue: 0,0:11:11.56,0:11:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- In traditional Indian society Dialogue: 0,0:11:13.00,0:11:15.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,95% of marriages still are Dialogue: 0,0:11:15.02,0:11:17.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,arranged marriages and most often than Dialogue: 0,0:11:17.18,0:11:19.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not the bride and the groom are Dialogue: 0,0:11:19.22,0:11:21.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,strangers to each other and one would Dialogue: 0,0:11:21.64,0:11:24.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,say that there's a 50% chance of things Dialogue: 0,0:11:24.61,0:11:27.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,going wrong in a rural marriage where Dialogue: 0,0:11:27.06,0:11:29.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's arranged and she's barely 15 or 16 Dialogue: 0,0:11:29.75,0:11:31.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he's not much older and they're Dialogue: 0,0:11:31.57,0:11:33.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,talking of really adolescence you know, Dialogue: 0,0:11:33.88,0:11:38.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,building a life and having\Nchildren, it's not an easy job. Dialogue: 0,0:11:42.43,0:11:43.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Social taboos pushed Dialogue: 0,0:11:43.50,0:11:46.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,aside girls and boys in separate groups Dialogue: 0,0:11:46.44,0:11:50.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,hear frank talk about sex\Nand how to use birth control. Dialogue: 0,0:11:52.68,0:11:54.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The stakes are enormous. Dialogue: 0,0:11:56.43,0:11:58.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The age structure of India's population Dialogue: 0,0:11:58.45,0:12:00.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,resembles a pyramid with vast numbers of Dialogue: 0,0:12:00.89,0:12:03.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,youth at its base, half the country Dialogue: 0,0:12:04.92,0:12:08.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,mirroring the world at large is under 25 Dialogue: 0,0:12:08.25,0:12:10.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and reaching reproductive age. Dialogue: 0,0:12:12.93,0:12:14.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If couples in this generation have only Dialogue: 0,0:12:14.91,0:12:17.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,two children in effect replacing Dialogue: 0,0:12:17.42,0:12:21.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,themselves population\Ngrowth will soon halt. Dialogue: 0,0:12:23.02,0:12:25.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yet for Manisha it's far from clear Dialogue: 0,0:12:25.74,0:12:27.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if India's youth will follow this Dialogue: 0,0:12:27.47,0:12:31.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,radical trend and throw off\Nthe shackles of tradition. Dialogue: 0,0:12:34.97,0:12:35.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As they pose for their Dialogue: 0,0:12:35.93,0:12:37.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,portraits she asked them how many Dialogue: 0,0:12:37.61,0:12:39.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,children they want Dialogue: 0,0:12:39.12,0:12:41.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if the gender matters and how they feel Dialogue: 0,0:12:41.59,0:12:43.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about birth control. Dialogue: 0,0:12:44.87,0:12:45.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- A lot of the couples Dialogue: 0,0:12:45.78,0:12:47.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,said that they'll be happy with two Dialogue: 0,0:12:47.06,0:12:48.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,children and we said what gender and Dialogue: 0,0:12:48.96,0:12:50.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they said it doesn't matter it's very Dialogue: 0,0:12:50.89,0:12:53.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,nice of them to say, 10 years ago people Dialogue: 0,0:12:53.10,0:12:55.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,wouldn't have even said it but I'm not Dialogue: 0,0:12:55.33,0:12:57.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,really sure that that would happen in Dialogue: 0,0:12:57.16,0:13:01.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the household if there\Nwere just two daughters. Dialogue: 0,0:13:03.42,0:13:04.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Daughters are seen as an Dialogue: 0,0:13:04.77,0:13:07.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,economic liability because parents must Dialogue: 0,0:13:07.10,0:13:09.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,provide a dowry of cash or gifts to Dialogue: 0,0:13:09.85,0:13:11.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,marry them off. Dialogue: 0,0:13:12.89,0:13:15.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A common Hindu wedding blessing praised Dialogue: 0,0:13:15.20,0:13:17.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that a wife will bear eight sons, Dialogue: 0,0:13:18.95,0:13:20.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but if she doesn't have\Nany there could be a Dialogue: 0,0:13:20.96,0:13:22.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,price to pay, Dialogue: 0,0:13:24.05,0:13:28.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that's why Manisha\Ntries to intervene early. Dialogue: 0,0:13:35.29,0:13:37.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The most shocking proof of what can go Dialogue: 0,0:13:37.45,0:13:39.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,wrong are the brides who've been doused Dialogue: 0,0:13:39.81,0:13:42.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in kerosene and set ablaze by angry Dialogue: 0,0:13:42.49,0:13:44.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in-laws or husbands, Dialogue: 0,0:13:47.51,0:13:52.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an estimated 25,000 women are\Nkilled or maimed each year Dialogue: 0,0:13:52.26,0:13:55.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over dowry and domestic disputes or even Dialogue: 0,0:13:55.42,0:13:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,their failure to produce a son. Dialogue: 0,0:14:01.36,0:14:04.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Bride burning is common in India and Dialogue: 0,0:14:04.89,0:14:06.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,since women are so dispensable and these Dialogue: 0,0:14:06.85,0:14:08.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,young little girls you know between Dialogue: 0,0:14:08.29,0:14:12.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the age of 15 to 24 are\Nthe most vulnerable, Dialogue: 0,0:14:12.23,0:14:13.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,girls would get burned they would get Dialogue: 0,0:14:13.46,0:14:16.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,poisoned and so therefore a girl in the Dialogue: 0,0:14:16.04,0:14:17.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,husband's house at least for the first Dialogue: 0,0:14:17.84,0:14:21.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,10 or 15 years always\Nwalks on a tightrope. Dialogue: 0,0:14:27.22,0:14:28.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Gender discrimination takes Dialogue: 0,0:14:28.68,0:14:31.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,place even among the wealthy. Dialogue: 0,0:14:32.81,0:14:35.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Upper-class parents committed\Nto a two-child family Dialogue: 0,0:14:35.86,0:14:37.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have sonograms to make sure they've Dialogue: 0,0:14:37.30,0:14:40.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,conceived a son although this doctor Dialogue: 0,0:14:41.43,0:14:43.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,refuses to reveal a fetus's sex not Dialogue: 0,0:14:43.77,0:14:45.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,everyone is as ethical. Dialogue: 0,0:14:47.62,0:14:50.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Millions of females are aborted leaving Dialogue: 0,0:14:50.66,0:14:54.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India with 35 million\Nfewer women than men. Dialogue: 0,0:14:57.16,0:14:58.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- There was an article saying that Dialogue: 0,0:14:58.68,0:15:01.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,better dead than burned okay meaning that Dialogue: 0,0:15:01.54,0:15:03.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's better that you\Nhave sex determination Dialogue: 0,0:15:03.65,0:15:04.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,rather than be burned in Dialogue: 0,0:15:04.52,0:15:06.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,your in-laws household and the newspaper Dialogue: 0,0:15:06.66,0:15:08.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,asked me to write a rejoinder and I Dialogue: 0,0:15:08.01,0:15:10.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,wrote a rejoinder saying\Nneither dear nor burned. Dialogue: 0,0:15:10.57,0:15:11.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- India wants to reduce Dialogue: 0,0:15:11.76,0:15:13.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,population growth but it certainly Dialogue: 0,0:15:13.34,0:15:14.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,doesn't want to reduce it through sex Dialogue: 0,0:15:14.94,0:15:17.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,selective abortion in fact it is Dialogue: 0,0:15:17.08,0:15:20.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,actually illegal now to test to see what Dialogue: 0,0:15:20.22,0:15:23.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the gender of a fetus\Nis but I think that the Dialogue: 0,0:15:23.56,0:15:25.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,single most important thing India can do Dialogue: 0,0:15:25.37,0:15:28.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,today, demographically, is to somehow Dialogue: 0,0:15:28.49,0:15:31.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,make the birth of a girl child Dialogue: 0,0:15:31.39,0:15:33.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as welcome as the birth of a boy child Dialogue: 0,0:15:33.99,0:15:35.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the goal of most developing Dialogue: 0,0:15:35.85,0:15:40.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,countries is to reach this\Nmagical two child family. Dialogue: 0,0:15:49.84,0:15:52.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Abidi Shah, a\Nsocial worker has seen that Dialogue: 0,0:15:52.74,0:15:54.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when women have greater access to Dialogue: 0,0:15:54.59,0:15:58.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,education and job training\Ntheir status rises. Dialogue: 0,0:16:00.75,0:16:03.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,16 years ago she visited a village Dialogue: 0,0:16:03.26,0:16:05.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the outskirts of New Delhi, Dialogue: 0,0:16:07.53,0:16:10.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,dismayed by the plight\Nof young girls there she Dialogue: 0,0:16:10.14,0:16:11.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,decided to act. Dialogue: 0,0:16:13.88,0:16:17.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- There wasn't any sense among the girls Dialogue: 0,0:16:17.37,0:16:20.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the adolescence because they had lost Dialogue: 0,0:16:20.30,0:16:23.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,their childhood already they had to look Dialogue: 0,0:16:23.30,0:16:25.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,after the younger brother and sister Dialogue: 0,0:16:25.63,0:16:27.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they had to cook the food they have to Dialogue: 0,0:16:27.30,0:16:29.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,clean the house they had to fetch the Dialogue: 0,0:16:29.43,0:16:32.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,drinking water, no education for them, no Dialogue: 0,0:16:32.13,0:16:35.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,food for them, no clothing for them. Dialogue: 0,0:16:37.18,0:16:40.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] First Abidi\Nconvinced a skeptical community Dialogue: 0,0:16:40.56,0:16:42.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to let her teach vocational and health Dialogue: 0,0:16:42.33,0:16:44.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,classes to adolescent girls, Dialogue: 0,0:16:46.50,0:16:49.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,next she had to show\Nthe girls themselves how Dialogue: 0,0:16:49.36,0:16:52.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,education could improve their lives. Dialogue: 0,0:16:54.58,0:16:58.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- I just said do you want same life as you Dialogue: 0,0:16:58.82,0:17:01.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are living here they said no I want Dialogue: 0,0:17:01.32,0:17:04.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,better life what sort of life you want, Dialogue: 0,0:17:04.43,0:17:07.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the life I see on the TV the life you Dialogue: 0,0:17:07.35,0:17:10.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are living so I said\Nthen what will you do, Dialogue: 0,0:17:12.23,0:17:14.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can't do anything, that's our luck, Dialogue: 0,0:17:14.95,0:17:16.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's our destiny, Dialogue: 0,0:17:16.01,0:17:18.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I said no this is not your destiny you can Dialogue: 0,0:17:18.81,0:17:20.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,change your life. Dialogue: 0,0:17:23.39,0:17:24.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] One young woman who Dialogue: 0,0:17:24.30,0:17:26.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,attended the program was Bimla, Dialogue: 0,0:17:28.94,0:17:32.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at age 13 her father had\Narranged her marriage and Dialogue: 0,0:17:32.48,0:17:35.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,forced her to drop out of school. Dialogue: 0,0:17:38.12,0:17:39.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] I already\Nhad two daughters when Abidi Dialogue: 0,0:17:39.70,0:17:41.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,arrived at our house she saw that I was Dialogue: 0,0:17:41.95,0:17:44.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,hungry and exhausted and she asked me Dialogue: 0,0:17:44.88,0:17:47.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,why don't you use birth control, Dialogue: 0,0:17:47.30,0:17:49.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I didn't know anything about it Dialogue: 0,0:17:49.23,0:17:52.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but I knew I didn't\Nwant any more children. Dialogue: 0,0:17:54.85,0:17:56.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Bimla was\Njust the kind of girl Dialogue: 0,0:17:56.95,0:17:58.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Abidi wanted to reach, Dialogue: 0,0:18:00.81,0:18:02.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,she told Bimla that she could legally Dialogue: 0,0:18:02.87,0:18:07.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,use the pill even without\Nher family's permission. Dialogue: 0,0:18:07.93,0:18:11.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(speaking foreign language) Dialogue: 0,0:18:11.08,0:18:12.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] I was\Ntalking with my friend Dialogue: 0,0:18:12.40,0:18:13.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and my mother-in-law was Dialogue: 0,0:18:13.27,0:18:15.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,listening from behind the door as soon Dialogue: 0,0:18:15.61,0:18:17.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as she left my mother lost started Dialogue: 0,0:18:17.53,0:18:20.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,yelling you must have a son stop taking Dialogue: 0,0:18:20.82,0:18:23.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the pills, although she tried to beat me Dialogue: 0,0:18:23.97,0:18:26.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into submission I was sure I didn't want Dialogue: 0,0:18:26.40,0:18:29.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,any more children, I could see that large Dialogue: 0,0:18:29.38,0:18:31.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,families were often poorer their Dialogue: 0,0:18:31.24,0:18:32.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,children didn't have clothes to wear or Dialogue: 0,0:18:32.94,0:18:35.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,food to eat but they played in the dirt Dialogue: 0,0:18:35.45,0:18:38.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they didn't get an education. Dialogue: 0,0:18:42.06,0:18:43.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] With help from a Abidi, Dialogue: 0,0:18:43.50,0:18:45.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Bimla learned tailoring, Dialogue: 0,0:18:47.62,0:18:49.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,soon she had enough money to Dialogue: 0,0:18:49.14,0:18:51.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,help her husband buy a new house and Dialogue: 0,0:18:51.37,0:18:53.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,send their children to school. Dialogue: 0,0:18:56.25,0:19:00.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- The reality in India\Nis that many many women Dialogue: 0,0:19:00.13,0:19:02.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are very empowered but the majority are Dialogue: 0,0:19:02.72,0:19:05.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,disempowered so when women want to Dialogue: 0,0:19:05.19,0:19:08.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,change the way their roles are defined Dialogue: 0,0:19:08.45,0:19:10.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they cannot do that if they are Dialogue: 0,0:19:10.18,0:19:12.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,economically vulnerable and dependent. Dialogue: 0,0:19:12.72,0:19:14.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because the price then is that if you're Dialogue: 0,0:19:14.93,0:19:16.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,left destitute if you're abandoned if Dialogue: 0,0:19:16.79,0:19:18.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you're thrown out of the house you have Dialogue: 0,0:19:18.39,0:19:20.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,no way to survive if you have no income Dialogue: 0,0:19:20.25,0:19:22.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so I strongly believe that one way Dialogue: 0,0:19:22.72,0:19:25.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,forward to increase the momentum of Dialogue: 0,0:19:25.15,0:19:27.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,social and cultural change is to allow Dialogue: 0,0:19:27.50,0:19:30.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,women to have employment opportunities. Dialogue: 0,0:19:35.01,0:19:36.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Yet these\Nopportunities may be hard to Dialogue: 0,0:19:36.78,0:19:40.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,come by, even as change\Nsweeps across India. Dialogue: 0,0:19:43.58,0:19:45.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To keep pace with its growing population Dialogue: 0,0:19:45.96,0:19:48.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the country must create six million new Dialogue: 0,0:19:48.19,0:19:49.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,jobs a year, Dialogue: 0,0:19:53.13,0:19:55.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but even its dazzling economic growth Dialogue: 0,0:19:55.44,0:19:58.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of 8% is not enough to prevent Dialogue: 0,0:19:58.03,0:20:01.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,unemployment, already\Nwidespread, from rising Dialogue: 0,0:20:03.13,0:20:05.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a new problem is looming as Dialogue: 0,0:20:05.50,0:20:07.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,population pressures confront vast Dialogue: 0,0:20:07.56,0:20:09.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,numbers of towns and villages with Dialogue: 0,0:20:09.75,0:20:11.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,chronic water shortages. Dialogue: 0,0:20:13.57,0:20:16.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- In India water tables are now falling in Dialogue: 0,0:20:16.33,0:20:18.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,most states including the Punjab which Dialogue: 0,0:20:18.78,0:20:21.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the breadbasket of India and this is Dialogue: 0,0:20:21.32,0:20:23.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,making it more difficult to expand food Dialogue: 0,0:20:23.48,0:20:25.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,production at a time when population is Dialogue: 0,0:20:25.62,0:20:27.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,projected to grow by another half Dialogue: 0,0:20:27.43,0:20:28.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,billion by 2050. Dialogue: 0,0:20:31.36,0:20:33.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- India faces really huge Dialogue: 0,0:20:33.75,0:20:35.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,environmental problems from rapid Dialogue: 0,0:20:35.85,0:20:38.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,population growth it might have a hard Dialogue: 0,0:20:38.68,0:20:41.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,time growing enough food for itself on Dialogue: 0,0:20:41.43,0:20:42.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the other hand you've becoming a center Dialogue: 0,0:20:42.96,0:20:45.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of software so if it makes a transition Dialogue: 0,0:20:45.27,0:20:47.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to becoming more of a high-tech Dialogue: 0,0:20:47.36,0:20:50.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,knowledge-based society then it probably Dialogue: 0,0:20:50.81,0:20:54.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,could feed itself it has huge numbers of Dialogue: 0,0:20:54.68,0:20:57.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,very smart well-educated people. Dialogue: 0,0:20:57.26,0:21:00.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- So we have got such a\Nlarge number of intellectuals Dialogue: 0,0:21:00.14,0:21:02.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in every field that you cannot Dialogue: 0,0:21:02.51,0:21:05.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,write of India and say\Nwell, population growth Dialogue: 0,0:21:05.68,0:21:08.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will finish, this country will be doomed Dialogue: 0,0:21:08.26,0:21:10.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there will be no drinking\Nwater, no housing Dialogue: 0,0:21:10.51,0:21:14.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,no nothing, no jobs,\Nabsolutely unreal, unscientific Dialogue: 0,0:21:14.83,0:21:15.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it is drama. Dialogue: 0,0:21:17.82,0:21:22.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] India is\Npoised on a knife-edge Dialogue: 0,0:21:22.08,0:21:23.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,headed in the right direction it will Dialogue: 0,0:21:23.99,0:21:26.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,still take years to reach the coveted two Dialogue: 0,0:21:26.09,0:21:29.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,child family and what if the average Dialogue: 0,0:21:30.43,0:21:33.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,family size turns out to be slightly more? Dialogue: 0,0:21:35.82,0:21:38.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Suppose in India they really did achieve Dialogue: 0,0:21:38.07,0:21:40.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,two children per couple in let's say 15 Dialogue: 0,0:21:40.72,0:21:43.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,years then they would rise to about Dialogue: 0,0:21:43.34,0:21:46.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,1.6 billion by 2050 but the key is if Dialogue: 0,0:21:47.89,0:21:50.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,couples have say on average about Dialogue: 0,0:21:50.02,0:21:52.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,two and a half children\NIndia would get its Dialogue: 0,0:21:52.82,0:21:56.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,second billion by the\Nmiddle of this century. Dialogue: 0,0:21:56.73,0:22:00.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] And the same\Nis true for the world, Dialogue: 0,0:22:00.83,0:22:02.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if global fertility stays even Dialogue: 0,0:22:02.43,0:22:06.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,slightly above this\Nmagical two child number, Dialogue: 0,0:22:06.06,0:22:07.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by mid-century our population Dialogue: 0,0:22:07.91,0:22:11.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,could nearly double\Nfrom six to 11 billion. Dialogue: 0,0:22:13.40,0:22:16.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- We're dealing with unprecedented numbers Dialogue: 0,0:22:16.09,0:22:18.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in terms of their magnitude and the Dialogue: 0,0:22:18.25,0:22:20.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,result could be huge rates of Dialogue: 0,0:22:20.48,0:22:23.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,unemployment, great political instability, Dialogue: 0,0:22:23.85,0:22:26.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,strife and a complete unraveling of Dialogue: 0,0:22:26.14,0:22:30.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,economy and society, and human ingenuity Dialogue: 0,0:22:30.20,0:22:32.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,may well find a way to deal with these Dialogue: 0,0:22:32.21,0:22:35.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,numbers it has in the past, Dialogue: 0,0:22:35.18,0:22:38.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,human ingenuity is\Nwonderful but it's also, Dialogue: 0,0:22:38.38,0:22:41.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like demographics, highly uncertain. Dialogue: 0,0:22:53.40,0:22:56.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Around the\Nworld in Japan the population Dialogue: 0,0:22:56.15,0:22:58.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is careening in the opposite direction Dialogue: 0,0:22:58.17,0:22:59.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of India's, Dialogue: 0,0:23:00.94,0:23:04.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,300 children once studied\Nhere in the elementary school Dialogue: 0,0:23:04.85,0:23:05.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of Oguchi, Dialogue: 0,0:23:08.07,0:23:09.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but once this lone fifth grader Dialogue: 0,0:23:09.77,0:23:12.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,graduates no new students will fill his Dialogue: 0,0:23:12.16,0:23:16.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,place because of a startling\Ndecline in birthrates. Dialogue: 0,0:23:18.54,0:23:19.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Never before in human Dialogue: 0,0:23:19.90,0:23:22.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,history has fertility fallen so far Dialogue: 0,0:23:23.89,0:23:26.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so fast, so deep and so unexpectedly, Dialogue: 0,0:23:28.90,0:23:33.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and no one should doubt that\Nit is a revolutionary change. Dialogue: 0,0:23:35.19,0:23:37.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- If you go back and you look\Nin the 1960s there all these Dialogue: 0,0:23:37.40,0:23:39.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,horrendous titles books you know like Dialogue: 0,0:23:39.18,0:23:41.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Population Bomb and many more and you Dialogue: 0,0:23:41.68,0:23:43.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,find out that the primary source of Dialogue: 0,0:23:43.49,0:23:45.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,concern in the intellectual circles about Dialogue: 0,0:23:45.29,0:23:48.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,population was and in some places Dialogue: 0,0:23:48.13,0:23:50.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,continues to be the population explosion Dialogue: 0,0:23:50.68,0:23:53.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in all of the industrial countries Dialogue: 0,0:23:53.28,0:23:56.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,our overreaction potentially to this Dialogue: 0,0:23:56.90,0:23:59.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this concern now has left us with just Dialogue: 0,0:23:59.09,0:24:00.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the opposite problem. Dialogue: 0,0:24:06.03,0:24:08.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] With crowded\Nstreets and packed trains Dialogue: 0,0:24:08.63,0:24:12.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Japan hardly seems to be\Nin need of any more people, Dialogue: 0,0:24:15.21,0:24:17.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but if fertility stays at its low rate Dialogue: 0,0:24:17.89,0:24:21.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of 1.3 children per woman by the end of Dialogue: 0,0:24:21.23,0:24:23.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the century Japan's population of Dialogue: 0,0:24:23.52,0:24:26.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,126 million will shrink in half. Dialogue: 0,0:24:29.23,0:24:30.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The impending decline has become a Dialogue: 0,0:24:30.63,0:24:33.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,national crisis with blame targeted Dialogue: 0,0:24:33.31,0:24:37.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,against the soaring\Nnumbers of unmarried youth, Dialogue: 0,0:24:38.19,0:24:40.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,called parasite singles they live Dialogue: 0,0:24:40.25,0:24:41.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with their parents while pursuing Dialogue: 0,0:24:41.93,0:24:45.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,careers and other\Ninterests besides marriage. Dialogue: 0,0:24:46.98,0:24:49.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Japanese women in the 70s felt Dialogue: 0,0:24:49.08,0:24:51.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that 25 was your last chance to get Dialogue: 0,0:24:51.10,0:24:54.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,married if you were 26 you'd be Dialogue: 0,0:24:54.27,0:24:56.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a Christmas cake because December 25th is Dialogue: 0,0:24:56.86,0:24:59.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the last day when a Christmas cake can Dialogue: 0,0:24:59.06,0:25:01.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,be sold and after that you're leftovers. Dialogue: 0,0:25:01.97,0:25:04.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now a woman will often delay marriage Dialogue: 0,0:25:04.95,0:25:06.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,until you know the last possible time Dialogue: 0,0:25:06.68,0:25:09.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,before she can have her first child this Dialogue: 0,0:25:09.28,0:25:12.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is now seen by some as a kind of female Dialogue: 0,0:25:12.36,0:25:15.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,selfishness but I think women in general Dialogue: 0,0:25:16.65,0:25:20.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are trying to do different\Nthings with their lives. Dialogue: 0,0:25:22.56,0:25:24.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Tomoko Omuro is a leading Dialogue: 0,0:25:24.42,0:25:26.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,television journalist, Dialogue: 0,0:25:27.28,0:25:31.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at age 29 she became one of\NJapan's first female anchors. Dialogue: 0,0:25:31.21,0:25:33.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(speaking foreign language) Dialogue: 0,0:25:33.37,0:25:36.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- I think there are two doors for women. Dialogue: 0,0:25:36.17,0:25:39.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One door has a ladder for promotion, Dialogue: 0,0:25:39.84,0:25:42.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the other one doesn't\Nreally have anything, Dialogue: 0,0:25:42.10,0:25:45.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you just stay on\Nthe same level forever. Dialogue: 0,0:25:46.79,0:25:50.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And lots of women end up\Ntaking copies and serving tea. Dialogue: 0,0:25:50.95,0:25:53.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I didn't want to\Nhave that kind of work, Dialogue: 0,0:25:53.55,0:25:57.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I was looking for\Na good lifetime career. Dialogue: 0,0:25:59.83,0:26:01.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] By age 37, Tomoko had become Dialogue: 0,0:26:01.73,0:26:04.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an editor-in-chief,\Nsupervising a team of producers Dialogue: 0,0:26:04.90,0:26:06.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and reporters. Dialogue: 0,0:26:10.49,0:26:12.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Her husband of nine years often asked her Dialogue: 0,0:26:12.84,0:26:15.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when they might start a family. Dialogue: 0,0:26:17.40,0:26:20.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Many companies in Japan\Nstill consider women Dialogue: 0,0:26:20.61,0:26:22.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with children as a burden. Dialogue: 0,0:26:22.72,0:26:25.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, I was so scared to have a baby, Dialogue: 0,0:26:25.93,0:26:29.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because I thought I would\Njust drop out of the race. Dialogue: 0,0:26:29.43,0:26:32.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, I kept on just postponing it. Dialogue: 0,0:26:33.17,0:26:36.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But when I turned 37 or so, Dialogue: 0,0:26:36.09,0:26:40.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I started feeling like something\Nwas missing in my life. Dialogue: 0,0:26:50.64,0:26:53.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] At 41, Tomoko\Ngave birth to their daughter, Dialogue: 0,0:26:53.20,0:26:54.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Asumi. Dialogue: 0,0:26:54.97,0:26:56.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Her initial ambivalence about motherhood Dialogue: 0,0:26:56.91,0:26:59.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is becoming increasingly common. Dialogue: 0,0:27:01.39,0:27:02.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] When I get married, Dialogue: 0,0:27:02.40,0:27:06.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it might be better to have kids,\Nbut I don't worry about it. Dialogue: 0,0:27:08.100,0:27:10.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] If I get married, Dialogue: 0,0:27:10.82,0:27:14.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I might think about having kids in my 30s. Dialogue: 0,0:27:16.83,0:27:19.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] If I am\Nworking, I can live on my own. Dialogue: 0,0:27:19.43,0:27:21.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the older times,\Nmarrying, for Japanese women, Dialogue: 0,0:27:21.77,0:27:23.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was like a dependency. Dialogue: 0,0:27:23.34,0:27:25.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not like that any more. Dialogue: 0,0:27:27.46,0:27:29.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] But besides wanting careers, Dialogue: 0,0:27:29.26,0:27:33.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there's another crucial reason\Nthat more women are working. Dialogue: 0,0:27:34.93,0:27:38.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- In Japan, the economy since '89, '90 Dialogue: 0,0:27:39.62,0:27:41.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has been in a recession. Dialogue: 0,0:27:41.97,0:27:45.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Japanese women often have to work to keep Dialogue: 0,0:27:45.82,0:27:47.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,their families middle class. Dialogue: 0,0:27:47.21,0:27:49.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One income doesn't work for many families, Dialogue: 0,0:27:49.44,0:27:52.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,especially in terms of the\Ncosts of children's education. Dialogue: 0,0:27:52.84,0:27:56.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's an exceptionally\Nexpensive task to raise Dialogue: 0,0:27:56.22,0:27:58.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a successful child in Japan. Dialogue: 0,0:28:01.04,0:28:03.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] There's a\Nsaying that Japanese men live Dialogue: 0,0:28:03.48,0:28:06.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at the office and commute to home, Dialogue: 0,0:28:06.06,0:28:09.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,often catching the last\Ntrain, at midnight. Dialogue: 0,0:28:11.82,0:28:14.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now as more women join\Ntheir husbands at work, Dialogue: 0,0:28:14.95,0:28:17.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they're discovering that\Nthe long hours required Dialogue: 0,0:28:17.44,0:28:20.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by most employers make having a family, Dialogue: 0,0:28:20.67,0:28:23.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,certainly a large one, difficult. Dialogue: 0,0:28:25.69,0:28:26.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(speaking foreign language) Dialogue: 0,0:28:26.92,0:28:29.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For Tomoko, it was a\Ntough challenge to find Dialogue: 0,0:28:29.40,0:28:31.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a daycare center that\Ncould look after Asumi Dialogue: 0,0:28:31.75,0:28:34.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for 13 hours a day, given\Nthe unpredictable hours Dialogue: 0,0:28:34.100,0:28:36.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the newsroom. Dialogue: 0,0:28:38.57,0:28:42.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For six months, her mother\Nmoved to Tokyo to help. Dialogue: 0,0:28:43.71,0:28:47.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now that she's gone, Tomoko\Nagonizes at the thought Dialogue: 0,0:28:47.34,0:28:51.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that her daughter may be asleep\Nby the time she's picked up. Dialogue: 0,0:28:54.24,0:28:57.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- If you are an executive, you can't say, Dialogue: 0,0:28:57.03,0:29:00.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Well, it's five o'clock, I'm leaving." Dialogue: 0,0:29:00.56,0:29:03.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If there's work, you have\Nto complete your work. Dialogue: 0,0:29:03.75,0:29:07.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Right now I'm trying to\Nfigure out how to work with Dialogue: 0,0:29:09.26,0:29:12.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,my full ability, and at\Nthe same time just save Dialogue: 0,0:29:12.93,0:29:14.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the time for my baby. Dialogue: 0,0:29:14.87,0:29:19.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My husband, I know he's\Nbusy, maybe busier than I am. Dialogue: 0,0:29:20.04,0:29:23.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Japanese people tend\Nto work for long hours Dialogue: 0,0:29:23.37,0:29:26.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and unless we change that kind of idea, Dialogue: 0,0:29:28.26,0:29:32.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the declining birth rate\Nis going to continue. Dialogue: 0,0:29:38.09,0:29:39.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Three hours from Tokyo, Dialogue: 0,0:29:39.45,0:29:41.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,near the elementary school of Oguchi, Dialogue: 0,0:29:41.84,0:29:43.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one can glimpse the flip\Nside of the country's Dialogue: 0,0:29:43.90,0:29:45.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,falling birthrates. Dialogue: 0,0:29:47.87,0:29:52.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By 2050, one in three Japanese\Nwill be over the age of 65. Dialogue: 0,0:29:55.91,0:29:59.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In Oguchi, this is already the reality. Dialogue: 0,0:30:03.57,0:30:05.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Mr. and Mrs. Ohno's house was once packed Dialogue: 0,0:30:05.99,0:30:07.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with three generations. Dialogue: 0,0:30:09.44,0:30:11.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But since their parents\Ndied and their children Dialogue: 0,0:30:11.56,0:30:13.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,left for careers in the city, Dialogue: 0,0:30:13.66,0:30:17.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,life for this 80-year-old\Ncouple has become lonelier. Dialogue: 0,0:30:19.68,0:30:20.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] In the old times, Dialogue: 0,0:30:20.90,0:30:22.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it was normal for a\Ndaughter-in-law to look Dialogue: 0,0:30:22.71,0:30:24.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,after her in-laws. Dialogue: 0,0:30:24.86,0:30:27.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that's why I took\Ncare of my father-in-law Dialogue: 0,0:30:27.59,0:30:29.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,until he died, at 83. Dialogue: 0,0:30:33.95,0:30:35.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] Our children have grown up Dialogue: 0,0:30:35.51,0:30:37.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and gone to live in Tokyo. Dialogue: 0,0:30:39.03,0:30:40.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They've all gotten\Nmarried and have to worry Dialogue: 0,0:30:40.79,0:30:44.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about sending their children to school. Dialogue: 0,0:30:44.82,0:30:46.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That is their place now. Dialogue: 0,0:30:46.96,0:30:48.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They have to work, and\Nthey can't afford to Dialogue: 0,0:30:48.69,0:30:51.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,come back here and look after us. Dialogue: 0,0:30:57.83,0:31:01.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- The governmental query now is, Dialogue: 0,0:31:01.02,0:31:02.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Who cares for our elders?" Dialogue: 0,0:31:02.96,0:31:05.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In essence, though, the\Ngovernment really feels that Dialogue: 0,0:31:05.96,0:31:09.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,families are responsible\Nand society isn't. Dialogue: 0,0:31:09.21,0:31:13.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And ultimately, when you\Nsay family, you mean women. Dialogue: 0,0:31:18.36,0:31:20.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] But with more women working, Dialogue: 0,0:31:20.04,0:31:25.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there's often no one at home\Nto care for the elderly. Dialogue: 0,0:31:25.01,0:31:27.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The stress on families is mounting, Dialogue: 0,0:31:29.21,0:31:31.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,especially since neither the government Dialogue: 0,0:31:31.36,0:31:35.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,nor private industry has\Nbeen able to fill the gap. Dialogue: 0,0:31:37.80,0:31:39.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If the Ohnos should get sick, Dialogue: 0,0:31:39.78,0:31:42.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the only nearby nursing home is full. Dialogue: 0,0:31:48.24,0:31:50.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To ensure their security in old age, Dialogue: 0,0:31:50.43,0:31:54.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Ohnos had counted on\Nprofits from their forest, Dialogue: 0,0:31:55.88,0:31:58.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but as globalization\Nbrought in cheap timber Dialogue: 0,0:31:58.19,0:32:02.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from the Philippines, they were\Nunable to sell their trees. Dialogue: 0,0:32:04.78,0:32:06.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] I can't\Ndepend on my children, Dialogue: 0,0:32:06.66,0:32:09.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so I don't know what to do. Dialogue: 0,0:32:09.07,0:32:10.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It would be great if the\Ngovernment builds lots Dialogue: 0,0:32:10.68,0:32:14.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of nursing homes and takes care of us, Dialogue: 0,0:32:14.25,0:32:17.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but I don't have high expectations. Dialogue: 0,0:32:17.80,0:32:20.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Staying healthy is the best thing, Dialogue: 0,0:32:20.37,0:32:23.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but we can't stay healthy forever. Dialogue: 0,0:32:29.79,0:32:31.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Japan's\Npopulation pyramid looks Dialogue: 0,0:32:31.90,0:32:34.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like India's turned upside down, Dialogue: 0,0:32:34.81,0:32:38.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,reflecting how the elderly\Ndramatically outnumber the young. Dialogue: 0,0:32:40.80,0:32:43.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Japanese now live\Nlonger than anyone else, Dialogue: 0,0:32:43.96,0:32:47.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with men averaging 78 years and women 84. Dialogue: 0,0:32:49.53,0:32:52.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- And with increasing education, Dialogue: 0,0:32:52.47,0:32:55.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we find that disability\Nrates among the elderly Dialogue: 0,0:32:55.12,0:32:59.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have been dropping steadily.\NThat is fabulously good news. Dialogue: 0,0:32:59.21,0:33:01.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a revolution in human demography. Dialogue: 0,0:33:01.77,0:33:05.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It means that people\Nof 60 have the function Dialogue: 0,0:33:05.10,0:33:09.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of people of 40 at the\Nbeginning of the century. Dialogue: 0,0:33:10.19,0:33:12.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] But this\Ngood news is tempered by Dialogue: 0,0:33:12.26,0:33:15.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a sobering reality in aging countries. Dialogue: 0,0:33:16.64,0:33:18.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There will soon not be enough young people Dialogue: 0,0:33:18.92,0:33:23.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,entering the work force\Nto support those retiring. Dialogue: 0,0:33:24.38,0:33:26.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not only will there be fewer workers, Dialogue: 0,0:33:26.65,0:33:28.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but as the population declines, Dialogue: 0,0:33:28.76,0:33:31.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there will be fewer consumers. Dialogue: 0,0:33:32.14,0:33:34.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- It's going to be extremely\Nhard for businesses to make Dialogue: 0,0:33:34.37,0:33:35.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a profit. Dialogue: 0,0:33:35.20,0:33:36.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And when businesses don't make a profit, Dialogue: 0,0:33:36.72,0:33:37.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they don't pay taxes. Dialogue: 0,0:33:37.98,0:33:39.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And when taxes don't get\Npaid, you can't support Dialogue: 0,0:33:39.87,0:33:41.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the welfare state. Dialogue: 0,0:33:41.30,0:33:44.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so the older countries face such Dialogue: 0,0:33:44.12,0:33:46.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a huge problem financially\Nthat they really Dialogue: 0,0:33:46.52,0:33:49.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,could undermine the global economy. Dialogue: 0,0:33:50.35,0:33:52.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] To keep its\Nworkforce from shrinking, Dialogue: 0,0:33:52.52,0:33:54.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an aging country like\NJapan would need to take Dialogue: 0,0:33:54.97,0:33:57.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in 600,000 immigrants a year. Dialogue: 0,0:34:00.30,0:34:03.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yet the Japanese resist,\Nobsessed by preserving Dialogue: 0,0:34:03.12,0:34:04.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,their own ethnicity. Dialogue: 0,0:34:07.20,0:34:09.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In stark contrast, America's\Nworkforce continues Dialogue: 0,0:34:09.98,0:34:12.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to grow as a result of immigration. Dialogue: 0,0:34:15.28,0:34:18.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- American fertility has been\Nbelow replacement for about Dialogue: 0,0:34:18.35,0:34:21.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,35 years, but just barely below. Dialogue: 0,0:34:21.64,0:34:24.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But we take in about a\Nmillion immigrants a year. Dialogue: 0,0:34:24.63,0:34:27.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in the next 50 years,\Nthey and their children Dialogue: 0,0:34:27.99,0:34:30.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are going to help America grow by about Dialogue: 0,0:34:30.22,0:34:33.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a 100 million people, so\Nwe will be the only one Dialogue: 0,0:34:33.74,0:34:36.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the modern countries\Nthat will be growing, Dialogue: 0,0:34:36.60,0:34:38.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and growing substantially. Dialogue: 0,0:34:41.55,0:34:43.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] The United\NStates is now the third Dialogue: 0,0:34:43.69,0:34:46.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,most populous nation,\Nand will remain so for Dialogue: 0,0:34:46.56,0:34:50.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the next 50 years, as our\Nnumbers climb from around 300 Dialogue: 0,0:34:50.71,0:34:52.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to 400 million people. Dialogue: 0,0:34:55.04,0:34:58.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Economically, this\Ngrowth keeps us vibrant. Dialogue: 0,0:34:59.50,0:35:03.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yet our productive economy\Nalso uses more resources Dialogue: 0,0:35:03.53,0:35:06.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than any other nation\Nand generates one quarter Dialogue: 0,0:35:06.83,0:35:10.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the greenhouse gases\Ncontributing to global warming. Dialogue: 0,0:35:12.86,0:35:15.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact an American child will consume Dialogue: 0,0:35:15.68,0:35:18.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and pollute more over a lifetime Dialogue: 0,0:35:18.38,0:35:20.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than 30 children born in India. Dialogue: 0,0:35:24.83,0:35:28.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Although population growth\Nis delaying aging in the U.S. Dialogue: 0,0:35:28.35,0:35:30.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,our ranks of seniors will also increase as Dialogue: 0,0:35:30.85,0:35:35.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the baby boom generation, one\Nin four Americans, retires. Dialogue: 0,0:35:37.65,0:35:40.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- No other country will\Nsee as large a percentage Dialogue: 0,0:35:40.35,0:35:44.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,increase in the elder population\Nas the United States will, Dialogue: 0,0:35:44.19,0:35:47.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because our baby boom was\Nlarger than anybody else's. Dialogue: 0,0:35:47.18,0:35:50.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And yet we will continue\Nto have lots and lots Dialogue: 0,0:35:50.13,0:35:52.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of young people to support\Nthem, not enough to Dialogue: 0,0:35:52.79,0:35:55.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,keep Social Security\Nsolvent, but certainly enough Dialogue: 0,0:35:55.47,0:35:57.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to make us a younger country compared to Dialogue: 0,0:35:57.20,0:35:59.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the other developed countries. Dialogue: 0,0:36:01.47,0:36:03.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Across the\Nindustrialized world, Dialogue: 0,0:36:03.62,0:36:07.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the average family size is\Nnow at or below two children. Dialogue: 0,0:36:10.33,0:36:13.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This stunning change has\Nslowed population growth, Dialogue: 0,0:36:13.44,0:36:17.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,yet it also signals the\Nadvent of global aging. Dialogue: 0,0:36:20.15,0:36:23.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Confronted by the prospect\Nof shrinking populations, Dialogue: 0,0:36:23.56,0:36:27.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,many countries now encourage\Ncouples to have more children. Dialogue: 0,0:36:29.63,0:36:31.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Ironically, they're finding\Nthat it maybe easier Dialogue: 0,0:36:31.96,0:36:35.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to cut fertility than it is to raise it. Dialogue: 0,0:36:43.42,0:36:46.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A startling demographic\Ndivide now confronts us Dialogue: 0,0:36:46.96,0:36:51.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as older societies shrink and\Nage, while youthful ones reel Dialogue: 0,0:36:51.26,0:36:52.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from rapid growth. Dialogue: 0,0:36:55.27,0:36:59.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nowhere is the contrast starker\Nthan in sub-Saharan Africa. Dialogue: 0,0:37:01.25,0:37:04.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,With families averaging\Naround six children each, Dialogue: 0,0:37:04.16,0:37:07.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's one of the fastest\Ngrowing regions in the world, Dialogue: 0,0:37:07.14,0:37:10.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,despite high death rates from AIDS. Dialogue: 0,0:37:11.90,0:37:16.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- AIDS mortality is having a\Nhuge effect on population size. Dialogue: 0,0:37:16.68,0:37:20.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nevertheless, the age\Nstructure in sub-Saharan Africa Dialogue: 0,0:37:20.22,0:37:23.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is so young that there will\Nbe so many people that still Dialogue: 0,0:37:23.29,0:37:25.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,need to pass thorough\Ntheir reproductive ages, Dialogue: 0,0:37:25.40,0:37:28.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that sub-Saharan Africa,\Neven if it put the brakes Dialogue: 0,0:37:28.02,0:37:31.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,absolutely, today, on fertility rates, Dialogue: 0,0:37:32.18,0:37:36.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,its population would nearly\Ndouble over this century. Dialogue: 0,0:37:37.21,0:37:40.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] In 1950,\Nsub-Saharan Africa had one third Dialogue: 0,0:37:40.76,0:37:43.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as many people as Europe. Dialogue: 0,0:37:43.64,0:37:46.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By 2050, this African population will be Dialogue: 0,0:37:46.76,0:37:49.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,triple the size of Europe's. Dialogue: 0,0:37:50.53,0:37:54.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Rapid population growth poses\Na real challenge to nations. Dialogue: 0,0:37:54.16,0:37:57.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It taxes their educational system, Dialogue: 0,0:37:57.65,0:38:00.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,their infrastructures,\Ntheir health system, Dialogue: 0,0:38:00.05,0:38:02.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so, as a whole, it\Nbecomes a heavy burden on Dialogue: 0,0:38:02.83,0:38:05.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an economy and a governmental system Dialogue: 0,0:38:05.60,0:38:07.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that is not strong enough. Dialogue: 0,0:38:07.40,0:38:08.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- And what does it mean\Nfor these countries? Dialogue: 0,0:38:08.86,0:38:11.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It means falling per capita incomes, Dialogue: 0,0:38:11.14,0:38:13.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it means deteriorating social services, Dialogue: 0,0:38:13.54,0:38:14.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it means conflict. Dialogue: 0,0:38:14.79,0:38:18.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And these will create tremendous\Npressures to emigrate. Dialogue: 0,0:38:27.08,0:38:29.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Africa's\Npopulation pressures will Dialogue: 0,0:38:29.19,0:38:33.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not just create economic\Nrefugees, but environmental ones Dialogue: 0,0:38:33.16,0:38:33.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as well. Dialogue: 0,0:38:36.26,0:38:39.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To meet rising demands for\Nfood, fuel and shelter, Dialogue: 0,0:38:39.92,0:38:42.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the continent's forests are disappearing Dialogue: 0,0:38:42.02,0:38:44.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at the fastest rate in the world. Dialogue: 0,0:38:46.79,0:38:50.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As countries struggle to obtain\Na decent standard of living, Dialogue: 0,0:38:50.02,0:38:53.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,natural environments are\Nincreasingly strained. Dialogue: 0,0:38:56.08,0:39:00.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The degradation not only threatens\NAfrica's unique wildlife, Dialogue: 0,0:39:00.11,0:39:04.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but creates hardships for\Npeople who live off the land. Dialogue: 0,0:39:06.59,0:39:08.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- And roughly a third of the\Npeople in the world still Dialogue: 0,0:39:08.59,0:39:10.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,earn their living not on a job, Dialogue: 0,0:39:10.86,0:39:12.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but by growing things or catching them, Dialogue: 0,0:39:12.66,0:39:14.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or by picking them up off the ground. Dialogue: 0,0:39:14.52,0:39:17.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if those ecosystems\Ngo down, those people are Dialogue: 0,0:39:17.46,0:39:19.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in very bad shape. Dialogue: 0,0:39:19.36,0:39:22.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so that's the real\Nrisk, is that we're going Dialogue: 0,0:39:22.52,0:39:24.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to degrade ecosystems past the point where Dialogue: 0,0:39:24.88,0:39:27.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they can sustain life as we know it. Dialogue: 0,0:39:34.02,0:39:36.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Many African\Nstates have now embraced Dialogue: 0,0:39:36.05,0:39:37.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,family planning. Dialogue: 0,0:39:39.25,0:39:43.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One of the oldest and most\Nsuccessful programs is in Kenya. Dialogue: 0,0:39:44.43,0:39:47.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the '70s and '80s, this\NEast African nation was Dialogue: 0,0:39:47.21,0:39:50.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the poster child for runaway growth. Dialogue: 0,0:39:52.18,0:39:55.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But two decades of family\Nplanning cut fertility Dialogue: 0,0:39:55.43,0:39:59.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from around seven to\Nfour children per woman. Dialogue: 0,0:40:00.42,0:40:03.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- The number of children per\Nwoman has dropped dramatically, Dialogue: 0,0:40:03.07,0:40:05.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,partly as a result of\Ntheir individual choices, Dialogue: 0,0:40:05.06,0:40:08.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and partly because people\Nhave thought to provide Dialogue: 0,0:40:08.83,0:40:13.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,reproductive health services\Nto make it possible for them. Dialogue: 0,0:40:13.45,0:40:15.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] According\Nto demographic models, Dialogue: 0,0:40:15.47,0:40:17.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Kenya's falling fertility places it on Dialogue: 0,0:40:17.88,0:40:21.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the threshold of a profound transition. Dialogue: 0,0:40:22.76,0:40:24.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,All countries start in stage one, Dialogue: 0,0:40:24.100,0:40:28.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where high death rates from\Ndisease make high birth rates Dialogue: 0,0:40:28.08,0:40:32.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a necessity to keep a\Npopulation from being decimated. Dialogue: 0,0:40:33.50,0:40:36.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- But then, as modernization begins, Dialogue: 0,0:40:36.82,0:40:40.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the death rate falls but\Nthe birth rate does not. Dialogue: 0,0:40:40.52,0:40:43.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So you have a large excess\Nof births over deaths, Dialogue: 0,0:40:43.47,0:40:46.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the so-called population explosion. Dialogue: 0,0:40:48.17,0:40:49.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] The challenge\Nfor every country Dialogue: 0,0:40:49.90,0:40:52.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is to pass rapidly\Nthrough this second stage, Dialogue: 0,0:40:52.81,0:40:56.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and bring birth rates back\Ninto balance with death rates, Dialogue: 0,0:40:56.10,0:40:59.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,allowing the population to stabilize. Dialogue: 0,0:41:00.34,0:41:03.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Because if countries can't\Nget through that stage quickly, Dialogue: 0,0:41:03.68,0:41:07.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then the pressures of\Npopulation growth may begin to Dialogue: 0,0:41:07.02,0:41:10.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,undermine their prospects of breaking out. Dialogue: 0,0:41:10.44,0:41:13.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if they don't break out,\Nthen the chances are that, Dialogue: 0,0:41:13.59,0:41:17.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,eventually, things will\Nstart breaking down. Dialogue: 0,0:41:18.54,0:41:21.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Just as Kenya\Nstands ready to reap the benefits Dialogue: 0,0:41:21.07,0:41:24.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of falling birth rates, the\Ncountry is facing a stunning Dialogue: 0,0:41:24.85,0:41:26.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,demographic reversal. Dialogue: 0,0:41:28.68,0:41:33.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For the first time in modern\Nhistory, death rates are rising Dialogue: 0,0:41:33.18,0:41:34.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not falling. Dialogue: 0,0:41:36.22,0:41:40.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Six to nine percent of all\NKenyans are infected with Dialogue: 0,0:41:40.23,0:41:44.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,HIV-AIDS, causing life\Nexpectancy to plummet from Dialogue: 0,0:41:44.28,0:41:45.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,65 to 49 years. Dialogue: 0,0:41:48.82,0:41:51.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In Kenya, AIDS and population growth Dialogue: 0,0:41:51.65,0:41:54.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have become tragically linked. Dialogue: 0,0:41:56.02,0:42:00.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nowhere is this more evident\Nthan in the slums of Nairobi. Dialogue: 0,0:42:01.49,0:42:04.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here, 21-year-old\NFlorence Akinyi lives with Dialogue: 0,0:42:04.100,0:42:08.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,her relatives in a\None-room corrugated shack. Dialogue: 0,0:42:12.11,0:42:14.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What's surprising about her family is that Dialogue: 0,0:42:14.38,0:42:16.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all six members are orphans. Dialogue: 0,0:42:19.44,0:42:22.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At 16, Florence was\Nthrust into taking care Dialogue: 0,0:42:22.68,0:42:24.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of her four younger siblings after Dialogue: 0,0:42:24.74,0:42:26.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,their parents died of AIDS. Dialogue: 0,0:42:28.54,0:42:30.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then the disease killed her sister, Dialogue: 0,0:42:30.85,0:42:35.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and Florence took in her\Nthree-year-old nephew. Dialogue: 0,0:42:35.55,0:42:38.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- In fact, at times I always\Nfeel that it is a lot of Dialogue: 0,0:42:38.14,0:42:42.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,burden, but because I knew\Nthere is no one to take care Dialogue: 0,0:42:43.28,0:42:46.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of them, I have just to do the duty now. Dialogue: 0,0:42:51.36,0:42:53.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Florence\Ndropped out of school Dialogue: 0,0:42:53.13,0:42:57.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and searched for ways\Nto support her family. Dialogue: 0,0:42:57.24,0:43:00.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But with few skills,\Nher options were bleak. Dialogue: 0,0:43:02.24,0:43:04.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- What happens with these\Nyoung women when they Dialogue: 0,0:43:04.08,0:43:05.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are forced to drop out of school, Dialogue: 0,0:43:05.89,0:43:09.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,very often with very basic\Nelementary education, Dialogue: 0,0:43:09.26,0:43:11.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they wind up on the streets. Dialogue: 0,0:43:11.14,0:43:15.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they sell their bodies in\Norder to fend for themselves. Dialogue: 0,0:43:15.66,0:43:18.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is not uncommon to\Nfind that young women have Dialogue: 0,0:43:18.27,0:43:22.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,had sex with older men for\Nsomething as simple as a meal, Dialogue: 0,0:43:22.03,0:43:26.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,something as simple as a\Nbag of what we call chips. Dialogue: 0,0:43:26.91,0:43:30.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- I always feel so bad\Nbecause in order to get money, Dialogue: 0,0:43:30.53,0:43:33.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from this, that is, you\Nhave to sleep with them, Dialogue: 0,0:43:33.45,0:43:37.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they pay you more when\Nyou don't use the condom. Dialogue: 0,0:43:37.20,0:43:39.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I needed money to survive. Dialogue: 0,0:43:42.07,0:43:44.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Eventually,\NFlorence had to break the Dialogue: 0,0:43:44.17,0:43:47.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,news to her family that\Nshe, too, was infected Dialogue: 0,0:43:47.57,0:43:49.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with the deadly HIV virus. Dialogue: 0,0:43:52.54,0:43:54.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,With treatment beyond her family's means, Dialogue: 0,0:43:54.99,0:43:58.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,her plight echoes a death\Nsentence ringing across Dialogue: 0,0:43:58.31,0:43:59.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sub-Saharan Africa. Dialogue: 0,0:44:02.49,0:44:06.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Adults between the ages of 20\Nand 60 are being wiped out, Dialogue: 0,0:44:06.75,0:44:09.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,contorting the population\Npyramids of countries ravaged Dialogue: 0,0:44:09.57,0:44:12.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by AIDS into a haunting shape, Dialogue: 0,0:44:12.43,0:44:14.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with large numbers of\Nchildren at the base, Dialogue: 0,0:44:14.87,0:44:16.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,disappearing adults in the middle, Dialogue: 0,0:44:16.85,0:44:19.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the few surviving seniors on top. Dialogue: 0,0:44:24.25,0:44:26.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- AIDS is cutting a huge swath through Dialogue: 0,0:44:26.65,0:44:29.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sub-Saharan Africa's strongest\Nresources, its people, Dialogue: 0,0:44:29.50,0:44:30.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,its working-age people. Dialogue: 0,0:44:30.98,0:44:34.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that is imposing a huge\Nburden in those countries. Dialogue: 0,0:44:34.54,0:44:36.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are currently 11 million orphans Dialogue: 0,0:44:36.97,0:44:38.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in sub-Saharan Africa. Dialogue: 0,0:44:38.74,0:44:41.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Never before in history have we seen such Dialogue: 0,0:44:41.35,0:44:44.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a colossal burden as the\Nnumber of orphans that will Dialogue: 0,0:44:44.57,0:44:48.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,overwhelm the capacity of\Nthe usual social institutions Dialogue: 0,0:44:48.20,0:44:49.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we have to deal with them. Dialogue: 0,0:44:49.89,0:44:54.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Africa is living in an\Nutter catastrophe right now: Dialogue: 0,0:44:55.12,0:44:57.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,millions and millions of\Npeople dying of preventable Dialogue: 0,0:44:57.95,0:45:00.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and treatable disease, millions of Dialogue: 0,0:45:00.31,0:45:02.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,children becoming orphaned. Dialogue: 0,0:45:02.45,0:45:05.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Impoverished people can't\Nface these challenges Dialogue: 0,0:45:05.22,0:45:06.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on their own. Dialogue: 0,0:45:09.35,0:45:12.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Today the\Nepidemic is spreading fastest Dialogue: 0,0:45:12.01,0:45:13.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,among women. Dialogue: 0,0:45:15.19,0:45:17.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, an African\Nwoman's greatest chance Dialogue: 0,0:45:17.65,0:45:20.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for getting infected is within marriage Dialogue: 0,0:45:20.51,0:45:23.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where condoms are rarely\Nused when families Dialogue: 0,0:45:23.04,0:45:25.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are hoping for children. Dialogue: 0,0:45:27.42,0:45:30.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Right now, a woman has to\Nmake a choice between having Dialogue: 0,0:45:30.76,0:45:34.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a child or putting herself\Nat risk of HIV infection. Dialogue: 0,0:45:34.43,0:45:37.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And because of that, it is clear that Dialogue: 0,0:45:37.02,0:45:40.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a prevention strategy for them is crucial. Dialogue: 0,0:45:45.84,0:45:47.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] There may soon\Nbe a breakthrough that will Dialogue: 0,0:45:47.74,0:45:49.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,save women's lives. Dialogue: 0,0:45:51.10,0:45:54.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At the Population\NCouncil in New York City, Dialogue: 0,0:45:54.12,0:45:56.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,scientists have discovered\Ncompounds that prevent Dialogue: 0,0:45:56.77,0:46:00.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the HIV virus from infecting human cells. Dialogue: 0,0:46:02.27,0:46:05.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Called microbicides, the\Nhope is that they will Dialogue: 0,0:46:05.15,0:46:09.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,chemically block or kill the\Nvirus during intercourse. Dialogue: 0,0:46:11.43,0:46:14.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The goal is to develop a\Nvaginal gel that can protect Dialogue: 0,0:46:14.94,0:46:19.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,women from disease if their\Npartners fail to wear a condom. Dialogue: 0,0:46:20.34,0:46:23.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Some of these products\Nmay also have the ability Dialogue: 0,0:46:23.12,0:46:25.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be contraceptive. Dialogue: 0,0:46:25.10,0:46:27.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I think the main issue\Nis that a woman has control Dialogue: 0,0:46:27.96,0:46:31.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over its use, she can\Ndecide when to use it. Dialogue: 0,0:46:33.74,0:46:36.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- As we've seen in the\Nfamily planning world, Dialogue: 0,0:46:36.35,0:46:38.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it is women who primarily\Ntake responsibility Dialogue: 0,0:46:38.75,0:46:41.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for protection, and if\Nmicrobicides were actually Dialogue: 0,0:46:41.37,0:46:44.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then made available to women, even if they Dialogue: 0,0:46:44.20,0:46:48.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were 60% efficacious,\Nnot 100% efficacious, Dialogue: 0,0:46:48.17,0:46:50.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even 60% efficacious, they could avert Dialogue: 0,0:46:50.90,0:46:52.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,millions of infections. Dialogue: 0,0:46:59.14,0:47:02.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] In several\Nsub-Saharan African countries AIDS Dialogue: 0,0:47:02.30,0:47:04.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has reversed population growth. Dialogue: 0,0:47:06.56,0:47:11.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But in most, births far exceed\Ndeaths partly because only Dialogue: 0,0:47:11.54,0:47:14.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,19% of women here use birth control, Dialogue: 0,0:47:14.52,0:47:18.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in contrast to 61% of women worldwide. Dialogue: 0,0:47:20.46,0:47:23.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Although more young people\Nthan ever will need family Dialogue: 0,0:47:23.16,0:47:26.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,planning, funding has not kept pace. Dialogue: 0,0:47:27.99,0:47:31.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To complicate matters, the\NUnited States has blocked support Dialogue: 0,0:47:31.11,0:47:35.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to clinics offering abortion\Nrelated care or counseling, Dialogue: 0,0:47:35.09,0:47:40.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even if U.S. funds are not\Nused for these services. Dialogue: 0,0:47:40.06,0:47:42.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As a result, many have closed. Dialogue: 0,0:47:45.09,0:47:47.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- It is a tragedy because\Nbirthrates are not just Dialogue: 0,0:47:47.40,0:47:50.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,coming down just on their\Nown, they're coming down Dialogue: 0,0:47:50.87,0:47:55.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because women are accessing\Nfamily planning services. Dialogue: 0,0:47:56.30,0:47:59.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And when women can use contraception, Dialogue: 0,0:47:59.49,0:48:02.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they do not need to have abortions. Dialogue: 0,0:48:03.71,0:48:06.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] The toll of\Nunwanted pregnancy can be seen Dialogue: 0,0:48:06.65,0:48:10.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the wards of Kenyatta\NNational Hospital. Dialogue: 0,0:48:11.59,0:48:15.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Half of all adolescent girls\Nin the country bear children Dialogue: 0,0:48:15.33,0:48:16.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by age 19. Dialogue: 0,0:48:19.21,0:48:21.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Many don't have the means\Nto care for their babies Dialogue: 0,0:48:21.70,0:48:24.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and attempt illegal abortions. Dialogue: 0,0:48:26.14,0:48:29.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- We've heard of young\Nwomen using coat hangers, Dialogue: 0,0:48:29.46,0:48:33.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,knitting needles, detergent, overdosing Dialogue: 0,0:48:33.25,0:48:36.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on anti-malarial medication. Dialogue: 0,0:48:36.28,0:48:39.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By the time the young women show up at Dialogue: 0,0:48:39.93,0:48:44.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a public health facility,\Nvery often they're bleeding, Dialogue: 0,0:48:44.70,0:48:48.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they're septic, and they're traumatized. Dialogue: 0,0:48:51.23,0:48:53.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] But the doctors\Nhere stress that there's Dialogue: 0,0:48:53.28,0:48:56.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an obvious solution to this problem. Dialogue: 0,0:48:58.64,0:49:00.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Let's look at adolescent pregnancy, Dialogue: 0,0:49:00.66,0:49:03.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,let's look at abortion,\Nand let's look at AIDS. Dialogue: 0,0:49:03.94,0:49:06.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The reason why we say this\Nis the common denominator Dialogue: 0,0:49:06.69,0:49:08.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there is unsafe sex. Dialogue: 0,0:49:09.24,0:49:13.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this sexual activity\Nis occurring in the absence Dialogue: 0,0:49:13.38,0:49:16.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of accurate and reliable information, Dialogue: 0,0:49:16.33,0:49:18.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in the absence of\Nservices that would enable Dialogue: 0,0:49:18.94,0:49:21.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,them to deal with the consequences. Dialogue: 0,0:49:24.62,0:49:26.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- And we know that there\Nis an unmet need for family Dialogue: 0,0:49:26.95,0:49:29.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,planning, and that this will only grow. Dialogue: 0,0:49:29.03,0:49:32.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Add to this that you now have\Nmore and more young people Dialogue: 0,0:49:32.95,0:49:35.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,entering their reproductive years, Dialogue: 0,0:49:35.10,0:49:39.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you can see that we're\Nsitting on a time bomb. Dialogue: 0,0:49:46.33,0:49:48.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] In contrast\Nto most African nations, Dialogue: 0,0:49:48.73,0:49:52.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Kenya has started its\Ndemographic transition. Dialogue: 0,0:49:53.95,0:49:56.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Its fertility rates have\Nfallen to around four children Dialogue: 0,0:49:56.94,0:50:00.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,per woman, although not yet\Nas low as India's average Dialogue: 0,0:50:00.69,0:50:01.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of three. Dialogue: 0,0:50:03.90,0:50:07.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,With fewer babies being born,\Na changing age structure Dialogue: 0,0:50:07.56,0:50:10.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has opened up a rare window of opportunity Dialogue: 0,0:50:10.18,0:50:11.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for both countries. Dialogue: 0,0:50:13.52,0:50:17.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- India and Kenya have a huge\Npopulation that's just getting Dialogue: 0,0:50:17.82,0:50:19.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ready to enter the labor force, Dialogue: 0,0:50:19.80,0:50:23.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the prime working years, the\Nprime reproductive years. Dialogue: 0,0:50:23.22,0:50:26.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If India and Kenya can\Nkeep fertility down, Dialogue: 0,0:50:26.38,0:50:28.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,those resources that would\Nhave otherwise gone to Dialogue: 0,0:50:28.61,0:50:30.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,children can be devoted to building up Dialogue: 0,0:50:30.92,0:50:34.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the productive capacity of the economy. Dialogue: 0,0:50:35.46,0:50:38.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] This strategy\Ntransformed the once poor nations Dialogue: 0,0:50:38.03,0:50:42.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of South Korea, Taiwan,\NSingapore and Hong Kong. Dialogue: 0,0:50:44.15,0:50:47.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As fertility fell, these\Ngovernments took money once Dialogue: 0,0:50:47.19,0:50:50.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,spent on children and\Ncreated jobs for young adults Dialogue: 0,0:50:50.68,0:50:52.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,entering the work force. Dialogue: 0,0:50:53.83,0:50:57.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The economic gains of these\NAsian Tigers stunned the world. Dialogue: 0,0:51:00.59,0:51:04.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Economic growth in East Asia\Nwas not miraculous at all. Dialogue: 0,0:51:04.13,0:51:08.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was, fundamentally, a\Ndemographic phenomenon, and it's Dialogue: 0,0:51:08.29,0:51:11.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a demographic phenomenon\Nthat can be repeated in other Dialogue: 0,0:51:11.02,0:51:13.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,countries like India and Kenya. Dialogue: 0,0:51:13.75,0:51:16.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If they keep fertility\Ndown and invest in their Dialogue: 0,0:51:16.82,0:51:20.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,young working age people,\NIndia and Kenya have Dialogue: 0,0:51:20.14,0:51:23.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an opportunity to escape\Nthe poverty trap that Dialogue: 0,0:51:23.97,0:51:26.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have ensnared them for centuries. Dialogue: 0,0:51:31.80,0:51:35.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] It took until\N1800 for global population Dialogue: 0,0:51:35.17,0:51:37.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to reach its first billion. Dialogue: 0,0:51:38.94,0:51:43.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In two centuries, the\Nnumbers increased six-fold. Dialogue: 0,0:51:43.91,0:51:48.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our world is now headed\Ntowards a day of reckoning. Dialogue: 0,0:51:48.24,0:51:52.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If fertility drops just below\Ntwo children, by mid-century, Dialogue: 0,0:51:52.82,0:51:55.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,global population could stabilize Dialogue: 0,0:51:55.14,0:51:57.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at around nine billion people. Dialogue: 0,0:51:59.61,0:52:01.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- The key is the education and, really, Dialogue: 0,0:52:01.80,0:52:03.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the liberation of women. Dialogue: 0,0:52:03.54,0:52:06.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When women have more\Ncontrol over their lives, Dialogue: 0,0:52:06.03,0:52:08.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then they'll have the number\Nof children they want. Dialogue: 0,0:52:08.34,0:52:12.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And all the evidence is that\Nwomen want fewer children. Dialogue: 0,0:52:12.27,0:52:15.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Nevertheless, if women\Nhave even, on average, Dialogue: 0,0:52:15.76,0:52:19.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,half a child more than our expectation, Dialogue: 0,0:52:19.64,0:52:23.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,population could nearly\Ndouble over the next 50 years. Dialogue: 0,0:52:23.10,0:52:26.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that would involve an\Nincrease of over five billion Dialogue: 0,0:52:26.94,0:52:31.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,individuals, which is historically\Nabsolutely unprecedented. Dialogue: 0,0:52:31.17,0:52:35.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It took us over 200 years\Nto add the last five billion Dialogue: 0,0:52:35.69,0:52:39.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,people and that could happen\Nagain, in less than 50 years, Dialogue: 0,0:52:39.25,0:52:40.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,going forward. Dialogue: 0,0:52:46.08,0:52:48.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] With projections uncertain, Dialogue: 0,0:52:48.14,0:52:51.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what will the demands for\Nenergy, food and water be Dialogue: 0,0:52:51.61,0:52:52.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the future? Dialogue: 0,0:52:54.98,0:52:57.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How will the other\Nspecies with whom we share Dialogue: 0,0:52:57.17,0:52:58.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the planet fare? Dialogue: 0,0:53:03.75,0:53:07.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The next few decades will\Nbe a critical time to ensure Dialogue: 0,0:53:07.26,0:53:10.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the trend to smaller families\Nand plan realistically Dialogue: 0,0:53:10.80,0:53:12.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for global aging. Dialogue: 0,0:53:19.26,0:53:21.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Yes, there are huge challenges, Dialogue: 0,0:53:21.62,0:53:25.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but the biggest risk we\Nface of all is inaction. Dialogue: 0,0:53:25.71,0:53:29.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We are not spectators to a\Nworld coming apart at the seams. Dialogue: 0,0:53:29.59,0:53:33.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we mobilize our skills and\Nour incomes and our wealth, Dialogue: 0,0:53:33.80,0:53:38.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even to a modest extent, we\Ncan help shift the world onto Dialogue: 0,0:53:38.14,0:53:42.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a path that is one of shared prosperity, Dialogue: 0,0:53:42.09,0:53:45.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that is one of environmental\Nsustainability. Dialogue: 0,0:53:45.70,0:53:48.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the end, the choice is ours. Dialogue: 0,0:53:48.99,0:53:51.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(calming music) Dialogue: 0,0:54:05.27,0:54:07.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] On Nova's\Nwebsite delve deeper into the Dialogue: 0,0:54:07.42,0:54:10.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,issues raised in this program hear more Dialogue: 0,0:54:10.14,0:54:12.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from the experts test your understanding Dialogue: 0,0:54:12.46,0:54:14.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of global trends learn how you can get Dialogue: 0,0:54:14.85,0:54:17.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,involved and more find it on PBS.org. Dialogue: 0,0:54:19.10,0:54:22.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(triumphant music) Dialogue: 0,0:55:19.07,0:55:22.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nova is a production of WGBH Boston, Dialogue: 0,0:55:22.49,0:55:25.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,major funding for Nova is provided by Dialogue: 0,0:55:25.22,0:55:27.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Park Foundation dedicated to Dialogue: 0,0:55:27.60,0:55:30.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,education and quality television Dialogue: 0,0:55:35.70,0:55:40.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Man] we see teacher of the\Nyear, we see kids reaching Dialogue: 0,0:55:40.10,0:55:43.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,their potential it's what inspires us to Dialogue: 0,0:55:43.05,0:55:46.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,create software that\Nhelps you reach yours. Dialogue: 0,0:55:48.37,0:55:50.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Woman] Science it has given us the Dialogue: 0,0:55:50.68,0:55:52.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,framework to help make wireless Dialogue: 0,0:55:52.98,0:55:57.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,communications clear, Sprint\Nis proud to support Nova. Dialogue: 0,0:56:02.87,0:56:04.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Man] Funding for World in the Balance Dialogue: 0,0:56:04.88,0:56:06.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is provided by Dialogue: 0,0:56:06.81,0:56:09.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Marguerite and Jerry Lenfest, Dialogue: 0,0:56:10.47,0:56:13.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the John D. and Catherine\NT. MacArthur Foundation, Dialogue: 0,0:56:13.93,0:56:16.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Richard and Rhoda Goldman Fund Dialogue: 0,0:56:16.06,0:56:18.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sponsor of the Goldman Environmental Prize Dialogue: 0,0:56:18.65,0:56:21.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the William and\NFlora Hewlett Foundation. Dialogue: 0,0:56:21.85,0:56:23.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Major funding for Nova is also provided Dialogue: 0,0:56:23.84,0:56:26.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting Dialogue: 0,0:56:26.14,0:56:29.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and by PBS viewers like you, thank you. Dialogue: 0,0:56:30.77,0:56:33.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(ominous music) Dialogue: 0,0:56:42.56,0:56:45.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] In the elementary\Nschool of Oguchi, Japan, Dialogue: 0,0:56:45.40,0:56:49.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the silence is more striking\Nthan the voices of children. Dialogue: 0,0:56:52.54,0:56:56.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In a spacious classroom,\Ncommanding the undivided attention Dialogue: 0,0:56:56.13,0:57:00.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of his teacher, 11-year-old\NDaiki Sato sits alone. Dialogue: 0,0:57:03.23,0:57:07.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Since kindergarten, he's been\Nthe only student in his class, Dialogue: 0,0:57:07.15,0:57:10.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because of a startling\Ndecline in birthrates. Dialogue: 0,0:57:11.98,0:57:14.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By the end of the century,\NJapan's population is expected Dialogue: 0,0:57:14.91,0:57:19.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to shrink by half, with one\Nout of every three people Dialogue: 0,0:57:19.21,0:57:20.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,retired. Dialogue: 0,0:57:22.35,0:57:24.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And Japan is not alone. Dialogue: 0,0:57:26.27,0:57:27.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Over the next 50 years, Dialogue: 0,0:57:27.85,0:57:31.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Europe is projected to\Nlose 63 million people, Dialogue: 0,0:57:31.89,0:57:34.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,while Russia shrinks almost 20%. Dialogue: 0,0:57:36.66,0:57:40.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As elders over 60 outnumber\Nchildren under four, Dialogue: 0,0:57:40.41,0:57:44.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the economic and social\Nchanges will be wrenching. Dialogue: 0,0:57:45.60,0:57:48.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- We're talking about a society\Nin the future that's never Dialogue: 0,0:57:48.12,0:57:49.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,existed in the past, Dialogue: 0,0:57:49.60,0:57:52.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one that is literally an old folk's home. Dialogue: 0,0:57:52.76,0:57:56.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we know that the\Ndecline of many industrial Dialogue: 0,0:57:56.61,0:58:00.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,countries is already written in stone. Dialogue: 0,0:58:00.58,0:58:03.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Yet, rising\Nlongevity is not just transforming Dialogue: 0,0:58:03.65,0:58:05.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the industrialized world. Dialogue: 0,0:58:07.27,0:58:09.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,More children in developing\Ncountries are surviving Dialogue: 0,0:58:09.76,0:58:11.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than ever before. Dialogue: 0,0:58:13.44,0:58:17.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Today, the largest generation\Nof youth in history is Dialogue: 0,0:58:17.20,0:58:19.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,entering their reproductive years, Dialogue: 0,0:58:19.55,0:58:22.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,igniting an explosion of births. Dialogue: 0,0:58:24.01,0:58:28.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As global population climbs\Nfrom over six to nine billion, Dialogue: 0,0:58:28.01,0:58:32.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the social and environmental\Nstrains will be enormous. Dialogue: 0,0:58:33.83,0:58:36.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our world is now careening\Nin two completely different Dialogue: 0,0:58:36.83,0:58:41.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,directions as youthful nations\Nreel from rising numbers Dialogue: 0,0:58:41.08,0:58:44.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,while old ones grapple with decline. Dialogue: 0,0:58:46.92,0:58:50.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- You see a huge generation\Ngap across countries emerging, Dialogue: 0,0:58:50.33,0:58:53.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's going to translate\Ninto a more polarized world Dialogue: 0,0:58:53.52,0:58:56.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,society, and those disparities Dialogue: 0,0:58:56.68,0:58:59.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are potentially very destabilizing. Dialogue: 0,0:59:01.28,0:59:04.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Join us for a\Njourney across four continents Dialogue: 0,0:59:04.40,0:59:07.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as we peer into the\Ndemographic divide reshaping Dialogue: 0,0:59:07.48,0:59:11.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,our world and confronting\Nus with stark choices for Dialogue: 0,0:59:11.14,0:59:12.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the future. Dialogue: 0,0:59:14.89,0:59:18.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,World in the Balance, The People Paradox. Dialogue: 0,0:59:18.34,0:59:19.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Up next, on Nova. Dialogue: 0,0:59:23.39,0:59:26.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(triumphant music) Dialogue: 0,0:59:38.62,0:59:41.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Man] Major funding\Nfor Nova is provided by, Dialogue: 0,0:59:41.59,0:59:43.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Park Foundation dedicated to Dialogue: 0,0:59:43.91,0:59:46.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,education and quality television. Dialogue: 0,0:59:49.18,0:59:53.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Woman] Science, it's given\Nus the framework to help make Dialogue: 0,0:59:53.33,0:59:55.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,wireless communications clear. Dialogue: 0,0:59:57.19,0:59:59.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Sprint is proud to support Nova. Dialogue: 0,1:00:03.80,1:00:06.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Man] We see an inventor, Dialogue: 0,1:00:06.92,1:00:09.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at Microsoft your potential inspires us Dialogue: 0,1:00:09.66,1:00:13.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to create software that\Nhelps you reach it, Dialogue: 0,1:00:13.67,1:00:16.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,your potential, our passion. Dialogue: 0,1:00:18.79,1:00:20.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Man] Funding for World in the Balance Dialogue: 0,1:00:20.77,1:00:24.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is provided by Marguerite\Nand Jerry Lenfest, Dialogue: 0,1:00:26.29,1:00:29.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the John D. and Catherine\NT. MacArthur Foundation, Dialogue: 0,1:00:29.74,1:00:31.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Richard and Rhoda Goldman Fund Dialogue: 0,1:00:31.85,1:00:34.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sponsor of the Goldman Environmental Prize Dialogue: 0,1:00:34.47,1:00:37.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the William and\NFlora Hewlett Foundation, Dialogue: 0,1:00:37.77,1:00:39.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,major funding for Nova is Dialogue: 0,1:00:39.21,1:00:42.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,also provided by the Corporation\Nfor Public Broadcasting Dialogue: 0,1:00:42.08,1:00:45.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and by PBS viewers like you, thank you. Dialogue: 0,1:01:10.02,1:01:11.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Deep in the heart of India, Dialogue: 0,1:01:11.44,1:01:15.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,towers the Taj Mahal, a lavish\Nmausoleum built to honor Dialogue: 0,1:01:15.36,1:01:19.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a queen who died giving\Nbirth to her 14th child. Dialogue: 0,1:01:22.31,1:01:25.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a haunting symbol for a\Ncountry that will soon surpass Dialogue: 0,1:01:25.64,1:01:28.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China as the world's most populous nation, Dialogue: 0,1:01:28.92,1:01:32.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with over a billion and a half people. Dialogue: 0,1:01:34.88,1:01:38.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Beyond its walls, lies the\Nurban sprawl of India's fastest Dialogue: 0,1:01:38.42,1:01:42.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,growing state, Uttar Pradesh,\Nwith more people than all Dialogue: 0,1:01:42.32,1:01:44.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but four nations in the world. Dialogue: 0,1:01:46.54,1:01:50.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Its population of 177 million\Nis crammed into an area Dialogue: 0,1:01:50.93,1:01:52.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the size of Colorado. Dialogue: 0,1:01:54.85,1:01:59.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Every three years, its numbers\Nswell by another 10 million. Dialogue: 0,1:02:00.77,1:02:04.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yet the rapid growth here\Nmasks a stunning success across Dialogue: 0,1:02:04.39,1:02:07.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India, where fertility has\Nplummeted from an average of six Dialogue: 0,1:02:07.87,1:02:10.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,children per woman to three. Dialogue: 0,1:02:11.54,1:02:14.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This trend offers hope that\NIndia's population might stop Dialogue: 0,1:02:14.96,1:02:16.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,growing this century. Dialogue: 0,1:02:20.22,1:02:23.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the outcome depends on\Nwhether the northern states Dialogue: 0,1:02:23.13,1:02:26.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can repeat the success of\Nthe south where birthrates Dialogue: 0,1:02:26.74,1:02:29.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are almost as low as Europe's. Dialogue: 0,1:02:31.12,1:02:33.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- And the south of India,\Nof course, is very educated. Dialogue: 0,1:02:33.94,1:02:36.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,However, the opposite is\Nthe case in the north, Dialogue: 0,1:02:36.16,1:02:40.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that's where India's\Ndemographic future really lies. Dialogue: 0,1:02:40.04,1:02:43.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In a state like Uttar Pradesh,\Nwhere women average about Dialogue: 0,1:02:43.08,1:02:46.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,five children each in their lifetime, Dialogue: 0,1:02:46.13,1:02:49.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they have very high\Nlevels of illiteracy, Dialogue: 0,1:02:49.43,1:02:51.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this is where the real\Nbattle for India's future Dialogue: 0,1:02:51.75,1:02:53.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is going to be fought. Dialogue: 0,1:02:56.24,1:02:58.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] If this battle\Nisn't won within two decades, Dialogue: 0,1:02:58.86,1:03:01.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India's population,\Ninstead of stabilizing, Dialogue: 0,1:03:01.80,1:03:04.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,could nearly double by 2050. Dialogue: 0,1:03:06.90,1:03:09.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,With U.S support, Dr.\NRavi Anand has organized Dialogue: 0,1:03:09.93,1:03:12.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a network of doctors across Uttar Pradesh Dialogue: 0,1:03:12.68,1:03:16.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to offer healthcare and family planning. Dialogue: 0,1:03:17.24,1:03:19.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- I would say this is our\Nwindow of opportunity. Dialogue: 0,1:03:19.39,1:03:23.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we do not take all\Nthe measures that we can, Dialogue: 0,1:03:23.69,1:03:27.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in every possible manner,\Nto check the population now, Dialogue: 0,1:03:27.68,1:03:31.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then India will never be\Nable to tackle this problem. Dialogue: 0,1:03:33.31,1:03:35.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Yet Ravi is well\Naware that if progress is Dialogue: 0,1:03:35.71,1:03:39.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,going to be made, the lives\Nof women here must improve. Dialogue: 0,1:03:41.74,1:03:44.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In a nearby slum, she checks\Non a 30-year-old mother named Dialogue: 0,1:03:44.81,1:03:48.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Gooday, who almost died\Ndelivering her eighth child. Dialogue: 0,1:03:50.71,1:03:53.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,She was rushed to the\Nhospital unconscious, Dialogue: 0,1:03:53.30,1:03:56.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,after three days of obstructed labor. Dialogue: 0,1:03:58.10,1:03:59.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] So, now tell me, Dialogue: 0,1:03:59.70,1:04:04.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I hear you had great\Nproblems with this birth? Dialogue: 0,1:04:04.04,1:04:05.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] Terrible problems. Dialogue: 0,1:04:05.59,1:04:08.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The midwife that had delivered\Nmy other babies came, Dialogue: 0,1:04:08.20,1:04:10.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but when she touched my belly she said, Dialogue: 0,1:04:10.80,1:04:12.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this baby's life is in danger. Dialogue: 0,1:04:12.99,1:04:17.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You must find the money\Nto get to the hospital. Dialogue: 0,1:04:17.14,1:04:19.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] After delivering a baby girl, Dialogue: 0,1:04:19.35,1:04:22.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Gooday begged doctors to be sterilized, Dialogue: 0,1:04:22.29,1:04:26.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but she was overruled by her\Nmother-in-law and husband. Dialogue: 0,1:04:26.64,1:04:29.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- She says she's petrified\Nof another pregnancy Dialogue: 0,1:04:29.84,1:04:33.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and childbirth, and she doesn't\Nwant to have another baby. Dialogue: 0,1:04:33.38,1:04:36.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But she's the one who's least\Ninvolved in this decision Dialogue: 0,1:04:36.21,1:04:37.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,making. Dialogue: 0,1:04:37.27,1:04:39.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that is why we counsel the husband Dialogue: 0,1:04:39.66,1:04:42.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the mother-in-law,\Nbecause we call them Dialogue: 0,1:04:42.44,1:04:45.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the gatekeepers to the health services. Dialogue: 0,1:04:48.42,1:04:51.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] So, I hear\Nyou want a second son? Dialogue: 0,1:04:51.57,1:04:55.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] I need at least one more. Dialogue: 0,1:04:55.09,1:04:56.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] You have only one son? Dialogue: 0,1:04:56.76,1:05:00.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And isn't one son good enough for you? Dialogue: 0,1:05:00.26,1:05:01.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] He's 40 years old, Dialogue: 0,1:05:01.63,1:05:05.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he is the only son left alive. Dialogue: 0,1:05:05.19,1:05:07.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] And daughters? Dialogue: 0,1:05:07.25,1:05:08.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] I have three daughters, Dialogue: 0,1:05:08.51,1:05:12.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they've gone to live with\Ntheir husband's families. Dialogue: 0,1:05:12.73,1:05:14.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] Listen, today, Dialogue: 0,1:05:14.24,1:05:17.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one son is just as much as you may need. Dialogue: 0,1:05:20.19,1:05:21.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] I already had two daughters Dialogue: 0,1:05:21.39,1:05:23.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when Abidi arrived at our house. Dialogue: 0,1:05:23.51,1:05:26.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,She saw that I was hungry and\Nexhausted, and she asked me, Dialogue: 0,1:05:26.92,1:05:29.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Why don't you use birth control?" Dialogue: 0,1:05:29.49,1:05:31.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I didn't know anything about it. Dialogue: 0,1:05:31.55,1:05:35.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I knew I didn't\Nwant any more children. Dialogue: 0,1:05:36.88,1:05:39.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Bimla was\Njust the kind of girl Abidi Dialogue: 0,1:05:39.32,1:05:40.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,wanted to reach. Dialogue: 0,1:05:42.95,1:05:46.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,She told Bimla that she\Ncould legally use the pill, Dialogue: 0,1:05:46.35,1:05:49.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even without her family's permission. Dialogue: 0,1:05:52.94,1:05:54.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Translator] I was\Ntalking with my friend, Dialogue: 0,1:05:54.45,1:05:57.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and my mother-in-law was\Nlistening from behind the door. Dialogue: 0,1:05:57.10,1:06:00.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As soon as she left, my\Nmother-in-law started yelling, Dialogue: 0,1:06:00.51,1:06:04.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"You must have a son.\NStop taking the pills." Dialogue: 0,1:06:04.80,1:06:07.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Although she tried to\Nbeat me into submission, Dialogue: 0,1:06:07.14,1:06:10.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was sure I didn't\Nwant any more children. Dialogue: 0,1:06:10.43,1:06:13.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I could see that large\Nfamilies were often poorer. Dialogue: 0,1:06:13.29,1:06:14.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Their children didn't\Nhave clothes to wear, Dialogue: 0,1:06:14.84,1:06:17.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or food to eat, that they played in dirt Dialogue: 0,1:06:17.35,1:06:20.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they didn't get an education. Dialogue: 0,1:06:24.14,1:06:28.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] With help from\NAbidi, Bimla learned tailoring. Dialogue: 0,1:06:29.78,1:06:32.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Soon she had enough money\Nhelp her husband buy Dialogue: 0,1:06:32.13,1:06:35.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a new house and send\Ntheir children to school. Dialogue: 0,1:06:38.44,1:06:41.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- The reality, in India, is that many, Dialogue: 0,1:06:41.05,1:06:44.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,many women are very empowered,\Nbut the majority are Dialogue: 0,1:06:44.88,1:06:46.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,disempowered. Dialogue: 0,1:06:46.23,1:06:49.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So when women want to change\Nthe way their roles are Dialogue: 0,1:06:49.39,1:06:52.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,defined, they cannot do\Nthat if they're economically Dialogue: 0,1:06:52.90,1:06:57.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,vulnerable and dependent,\Nbecause the price then is that if Dialogue: 0,1:06:57.14,1:06:58.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you are left destitute, if\Nyou're abandoned, if you're Dialogue: 0,1:06:58.94,1:07:01.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,thrown out of the house, you\Nhave no way to survive if you Dialogue: 0,1:07:01.46,1:07:02.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have no income. Dialogue: 0,1:07:02.72,1:07:05.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I strongly believe\Nthat one way forward, Dialogue: 0,1:07:05.95,1:07:09.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to increase the momentum of\Nsocial and cultural change, Dialogue: 0,1:07:09.14,1:07:13.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is to allow women to have\Nemployment opportunities. Dialogue: 0,1:07:17.22,1:07:20.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Yet these opportunities\Nmay be hard to come by, Dialogue: 0,1:07:20.08,1:07:22.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even as change sweeps across India. Dialogue: 0,1:07:25.76,1:07:28.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To keep pace with its growing population, Dialogue: 0,1:07:28.08,1:07:32.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the country must create six\Nmillion new jobs a year. Dialogue: 0,1:07:35.00,1:07:38.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But even its dazzling\Neconomic growth of 8% Dialogue: 0,1:07:38.82,1:07:41.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is not enough to prevent unemployment, Dialogue: 0,1:07:41.33,1:07:43.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,already widespread, from rising. Dialogue: 0,1:07:45.53,1:07:48.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And a new problem is looming\Nas population pressures Dialogue: 0,1:07:48.76,1:07:51.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,confront a vast number\Nof towns and villages Dialogue: 0,1:07:51.58,1:07:53.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with chronic water shortages. Dialogue: 0,1:07:55.80,1:07:59.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- In India, water tables are\Nnow falling in most states, Dialogue: 0,1:07:59.72,1:08:02.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,including the Punjab, which\Nis the bread basket of India. Dialogue: 0,1:08:02.72,1:08:05.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this is making it more\Ndifficult to expand food Dialogue: 0,1:08:05.61,1:08:08.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,production at a time when\Nthe population is projected Dialogue: 0,1:08:08.35,1:08:11.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to grow by another half billion by 2050. Dialogue: 0,1:08:13.39,1:08:17.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- India faces really huge\Nenvironmental problems Dialogue: 0,1:08:17.01,1:08:21.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from rapid population growth,\Nand it might have a hard time Dialogue: 0,1:08:21.06,1:08:23.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,growing enough food for itself. Dialogue: 0,1:08:23.50,1:08:26.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,On the other hand, it's\Nbecoming a center of software, Dialogue: 0,1:08:26.06,1:08:29.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so if it makes a transition to\Nbecoming more of a high tech, Dialogue: 0,1:08:29.47,1:08:31.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,knowledge-based society, Dialogue: 0,1:08:31.65,1:08:34.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then it probably could feed itself. Dialogue: 0,1:08:34.62,1:08:39.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It has huge numbers of very\Nsmart, well educated people. Dialogue: 0,1:08:39.41,1:08:42.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- So we have got such a large\Nnumber of intellectuals in Dialogue: 0,1:08:42.64,1:08:46.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,every field that you cannot\Nwrite off India and say, Dialogue: 0,1:08:46.15,1:08:49.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,oh, population growth\Nwill finish this country. Dialogue: 0,1:08:49.31,1:08:50.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We'll be doomed. Dialogue: 0,1:08:50.34,1:08:52.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There'll be no drinking water, no housing, Dialogue: 0,1:08:52.53,1:08:54.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,no nothing, no jobs. Dialogue: 0,1:08:54.16,1:08:57.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Absolutely unreal,\Nunscientific, it is drama. Dialogue: 0,1:08:59.93,1:09:04.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] India is\Npoised on a knife edge. Dialogue: 0,1:09:04.30,1:09:07.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Headed in the right direction,\Nit will still take years Dialogue: 0,1:09:07.08,1:09:10.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to reach the coveted two-child family. Dialogue: 0,1:09:11.58,1:09:14.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what if the average\Nfamily size turns out Dialogue: 0,1:09:14.03,1:09:15.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be slightly more? Dialogue: 0,1:09:17.94,1:09:20.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Suppose in India they really\Ndid achieve two children Dialogue: 0,1:09:20.88,1:09:23.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,per couple in, let's say, 15 years. Dialogue: 0,1:09:23.91,1:09:28.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then they would rise to\Nabout 1.6 billion by 2050. Dialogue: 0,1:09:28.31,1:09:31.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the key is, if\Ncouples have, on average, Dialogue: 0,1:09:31.68,1:09:33.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about two and a half children, Dialogue: 0,1:09:33.75,1:09:36.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India would get its second\Nbillion by the middle Dialogue: 0,1:09:36.19,1:09:37.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of this century. Dialogue: 0,1:09:38.85,1:09:43.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] And the same\Nis true for the world. Dialogue: 0,1:09:43.07,1:09:46.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A common Hindu wedding blessing\Nprays that a wife will bear Dialogue: 0,1:09:46.31,1:09:49.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,eight sons, but if she doesn't have any, Dialogue: 0,1:09:50.50,1:09:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there could be a price to pay. Dialogue: 0,1:09:54.25,1:09:58.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's why Manisha\Ntried to intervene early. Dialogue: 0,1:10:05.40,1:10:09.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The most shocking proof of what\Ncan go wrong are the brides Dialogue: 0,1:10:09.22,1:10:11.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who've been doused in kerosene Dialogue: 0,1:10:11.24,1:10:14.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and set ablaze by angry\Nin-laws or husbands. Dialogue: 0,1:10:17.72,1:10:22.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,An estimated 25,000 women are\Nkilled or maimed each year Dialogue: 0,1:10:22.25,1:10:25.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over dowry and domestic disputes or Dialogue: 0,1:10:25.20,1:10:28.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even their failure to produce a son. Dialogue: 0,1:10:31.47,1:10:34.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Bride burning is common in India. Dialogue: 0,1:10:34.84,1:10:37.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And since women are so\Ndispensable, and these young, Dialogue: 0,1:10:37.37,1:10:40.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,little girls, you know,\Nbetween the ages of 15 to 24 Dialogue: 0,1:10:40.26,1:10:43.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are the most vulnerable,\Ngirls will get burned, Dialogue: 0,1:10:43.43,1:10:44.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they will get poisoned. Dialogue: 0,1:10:44.86,1:10:47.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, therefore, a girl\Nin the husband's house, Dialogue: 0,1:10:47.43,1:10:49.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at least for the first 10 or 15 years, Dialogue: 0,1:10:49.87,1:10:52.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,always walks on a tightrope. Dialogue: 0,1:10:57.33,1:10:59.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Gender discrimination\Ntakes place even among Dialogue: 0,1:10:59.77,1:11:00.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the wealthy. Dialogue: 0,1:11:02.96,1:11:06.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Upper class parents, committed\Nto a two-child family, Dialogue: 0,1:11:06.03,1:11:10.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have sonograms to make sure\Nthat they've conceived a son. Dialogue: 0,1:11:10.72,1:11:13.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Although this doctor refuses\Nto reveal a fetus's sex, Dialogue: 0,1:11:13.92,1:11:16.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not everyone is as ethical. Dialogue: 0,1:11:17.83,1:11:21.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Millions of females are\Naborted, leaving India Dialogue: 0,1:11:21.50,1:11:24.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with 35 million fewer women than men. Dialogue: 0,1:11:27.35,1:11:31.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- There was an article saying\Nthat better dead than burned, Dialogue: 0,1:11:31.14,1:11:33.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,meaning that it's better that\Nyou have sex determination Dialogue: 0,1:11:33.64,1:11:36.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,rather than be burned in\Nyour in-laws' household. Dialogue: 0,1:11:36.04,1:11:37.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the newspaper asked\Nme to write a rejoinder, Dialogue: 0,1:11:37.76,1:11:40.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I wrote a rejoinder saying,\Nneither dead nor burned. Dialogue: 0,1:11:40.74,1:11:42.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- India wants to reduce population growth, Dialogue: 0,1:11:42.77,1:11:44.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it certainly doesn't\Nwant to reduce it through Dialogue: 0,1:11:44.73,1:11:46.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sex-selective abortion. Dialogue: 0,1:11:46.59,1:11:50.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, it is actually\Nillegal now to test to see what Dialogue: 0,1:11:50.23,1:11:52.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the gender of a fetus is. Dialogue: 0,1:11:52.88,1:11:55.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I think the single most\Nimportant thing India can do Dialogue: 0,1:11:55.33,1:11:59.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,today, demographically, is\Nto somehow make the birth of Dialogue: 0,1:11:59.63,1:12:04.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a girl child as welcome as\Nthe birth of a boy child, Dialogue: 0,1:12:04.16,1:12:06.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the goal of most\Ndeveloping countries is Dialogue: 0,1:12:06.65,1:12:09.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to reach this magical two-child family. Dialogue: 0,1:12:19.95,1:12:22.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Abidi Shah, a social worker, Dialogue: 0,1:12:22.31,1:12:25.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has seen that when women have\Ngreater access to education Dialogue: 0,1:12:25.18,1:12:28.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and job training, their status rises. Dialogue: 0,1:12:30.85,1:12:33.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,16 years ago, she visited\Na village on the outskirts Dialogue: 0,1:12:33.92,1:12:35.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of New Delhi. Dialogue: 0,1:12:37.76,1:12:40.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Dismayed by the plight\Nof young girls there, Dialogue: 0,1:12:40.43,1:12:42.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,she decided to act. Dialogue: 0,1:12:43.100,1:12:48.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- There wasn't any sense among\Nthe girls of the adolescence, Dialogue: 0,1:12:49.14,1:12:52.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because they had lost\Ntheir childhood already. Dialogue: 0,1:12:52.80,1:12:55.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They had to look after their\Nyounger brother and sister. Dialogue: 0,1:12:55.87,1:12:57.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They had to cook the food. Dialogue: 0,1:12:57.26,1:12:58.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They had to clean the house. Dialogue: 0,1:12:58.77,1:13:00.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They had to fetch the drinking water. Dialogue: 0,1:13:00.84,1:13:03.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No education for them, no food for them, Dialogue: 0,1:13:03.91,1:13:05.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,no clothing for them. Dialogue: 0,1:13:07.24,1:13:10.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] First Abidi\Nhad to convince a skeptical Dialogue: 0,1:13:10.06,1:13:11.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,community to let her teach vocational Dialogue: 0,1:13:11.91,1:13:15.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and health classes to adolescent girls. Dialogue: 0,1:13:16.76,1:13:19.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Next, she had to show the girls themselves Dialogue: 0,1:13:19.24,1:13:22.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how education could improve their lives. Dialogue: 0,1:13:24.88,1:13:29.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- I just said, do you want same\Nlife as you are living here? Dialogue: 0,1:13:30.26,1:13:31.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They said, no, I want better life. Dialogue: 0,1:13:31.95,1:13:34.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"What sort of life do you want?" Dialogue: 0,1:13:34.38,1:13:38.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"The life I see on the TV.\NThe life you are living." Dialogue: 0,1:13:39.57,1:13:42.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I said, "Then what will you do?" Dialogue: 0,1:13:42.31,1:13:46.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"We can't do anything. That's\Nour luck, that's our destiny." Dialogue: 0,1:13:46.19,1:13:48.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I said, "No. This is not your destiny. Dialogue: 0,1:13:48.33,1:13:50.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"You can change your life." Dialogue: 0,1:13:53.50,1:13:55.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] One young woman\Nwho attended the program Dialogue: 0,1:13:55.76,1:13:56.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was Bimla. Dialogue: 0,1:13:58.100,1:14:02.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At age 13, her father\Nhad arranged her marriage Dialogue: 0,1:14:02.57,1:14:05.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and forced her to drop out of school. Dialogue: 0,1:14:06.96,1:14:09.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- One of the major reasons\Nfor the family size Dialogue: 0,1:14:09.65,1:14:14.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be really large in Northern\NIndia is the son preference, Dialogue: 0,1:14:14.44,1:14:17.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it's the son who\Nstays with the family, Dialogue: 0,1:14:17.30,1:14:21.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he's expected to look\Nafter his old parents. Dialogue: 0,1:14:21.47,1:14:24.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And girls are always considered as, Dialogue: 0,1:14:24.18,1:14:27.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,somebody else's asset, not mine. Dialogue: 0,1:14:27.14,1:14:30.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- But the point is the\Nstrategy of survival demands Dialogue: 0,1:14:30.29,1:14:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you must have one or\Ntwo sons, otherwise you will Dialogue: 0,1:14:34.00,1:14:37.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,be left high and dry,\Nnot only in the old age, Dialogue: 0,1:14:37.12,1:14:38.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,throughout your life. Dialogue: 0,1:14:40.22,1:14:42.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Having a second\Nson raises the odds for Dialogue: 0,1:14:42.76,1:14:46.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Gooday that at least one boy will survive, Dialogue: 0,1:14:47.43,1:14:50.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,especially since one in 10\Nchildren in Uttar Pradesh Dialogue: 0,1:14:50.63,1:14:52.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,die before age five. Dialogue: 0,1:14:54.76,1:14:57.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Gooday has lost three infants. Dialogue: 0,1:14:58.92,1:15:01.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Ravi urges her to bring her\Nchildren to the clinic for Dialogue: 0,1:15:01.57,1:15:02.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,vaccinations. Dialogue: 0,1:15:05.39,1:15:08.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If the family trusts\Ntheir son will survive, Dialogue: 0,1:15:08.23,1:15:11.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the pressure to bear another may ease. Dialogue: 0,1:15:12.76,1:15:15.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Women in India really\Ndon't have control over their Dialogue: 0,1:15:15.36,1:15:19.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,reproductive lives because\Nall sexual reproductive health Dialogue: 0,1:15:19.42,1:15:23.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,decisions are essentially made by men. Dialogue: 0,1:15:23.15,1:15:27.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so you can't deal with\Nan issue like population by Dialogue: 0,1:15:27.45,1:15:28.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,itself. Dialogue: 0,1:15:29.17,1:15:33.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You have to look at the issue\Nof infant mortality, literacy, Dialogue: 0,1:15:33.09,1:15:37.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or women's status, because\Nit's all very interlinked. Dialogue: 0,1:15:37.22,1:15:39.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is a patriarchal society. Dialogue: 0,1:15:39.59,1:15:43.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I think gender lies at the\Nheart of the problem, really. Dialogue: 0,1:15:49.20,1:15:51.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] On the edge\Nof the Deccan Plains, Dialogue: 0,1:15:51.56,1:15:54.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,barefoot children walk\Ntowards their school in Dialogue: 0,1:15:54.16,1:15:56.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the rural village of Saswad. Dialogue: 0,1:16:01.63,1:16:05.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The daily rhythm of life\Nhere masks an unusual event Dialogue: 0,1:16:05.83,1:16:08.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,unfolding in the heart of the village. Dialogue: 0,1:16:10.17,1:16:13.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Newly married couples play\Ngames to get to know each other Dialogue: 0,1:16:13.79,1:16:17.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as they wait to have their\Nwedding portraits taken. Dialogue: 0,1:16:18.92,1:16:21.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The gathering has been\Norganized by social worker Dialogue: 0,1:16:21.14,1:16:24.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Manisha Gupta to help\Nyoung men and women bridge Dialogue: 0,1:16:24.31,1:16:26.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India's stark gender divide. Dialogue: 0,1:16:29.02,1:16:31.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- In a traditional Indian society, Dialogue: 0,1:16:31.17,1:16:34.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,95% of marriages still\Nare arranged marriages. Dialogue: 0,1:16:34.32,1:16:37.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And most often than not,\Nthe bride and the groom are Dialogue: 0,1:16:37.36,1:16:39.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,strangers to each other. Dialogue: 0,1:16:39.08,1:16:42.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And one would say that\Nthere's a 50% chance of things Dialogue: 0,1:16:42.62,1:16:46.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,going wrong in a rural\Nmarriage where it's arranged, Dialogue: 0,1:16:46.31,1:16:49.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and she's barely 15 or 16,\Nand he's not much older. Dialogue: 0,1:16:49.33,1:16:51.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we're talking of, really, adolescents, Dialogue: 0,1:16:51.69,1:16:54.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who are building a life\Nand having children. Dialogue: 0,1:16:54.64,1:16:56.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not an easy job. Dialogue: 0,1:17:00.49,1:17:02.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Social taboos pushed aside, Dialogue: 0,1:17:02.64,1:17:04.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,girl and boys in separate groups Dialogue: 0,1:17:04.57,1:17:08.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,hear frank talk about sex\Nand how to use birth control. Dialogue: 0,1:17:10.97,1:17:12.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The stakes are enormous. Dialogue: 0,1:17:14.56,1:17:18.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The age structure of India's\Npopulation resembles a pyramid, Dialogue: 0,1:17:18.20,1:17:21.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with vast numbers of youth at its base. Dialogue: 0,1:17:21.75,1:17:24.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Half the country, mirroring\Nthe world at large, Dialogue: 0,1:17:24.88,1:17:28.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is under 25 and reaching reproductive age. Dialogue: 0,1:17:31.12,1:17:34.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If couples in this generation\Nhave only two children, Dialogue: 0,1:17:34.57,1:17:37.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in effect replacing themselves, Dialogue: 0,1:17:37.03,1:17:39.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,population growth will soon halt. Dialogue: 0,1:17:41.32,1:17:44.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yet for Manisha, it's far\Nfrom clear if India's youth Dialogue: 0,1:17:44.82,1:17:47.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will follow this radical\Ntrend and throw off Dialogue: 0,1:17:47.89,1:17:50.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the shackles of tradition. Dialogue: 0,1:17:53.29,1:17:54.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As they pose for their portraits, Dialogue: 0,1:17:54.92,1:17:57.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,she asks them how many children they want, Dialogue: 0,1:17:57.39,1:17:59.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if the gender matters, and how they feel Dialogue: 0,1:17:59.71,1:18:01.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about birth control. Dialogue: 0,1:18:03.06,1:18:04.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- A lot of the couples said\Nthat they'd be happy with two Dialogue: 0,1:18:04.100,1:18:05.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,children. Dialogue: 0,1:18:05.83,1:18:07.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we said, "What gender?" Dialogue: 0,1:18:07.18,1:18:08.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they said it doesn't matter. Dialogue: 0,1:18:08.65,1:18:10.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's very nice of them to say it. Dialogue: 0,1:18:10.51,1:18:13.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,10 years ago our people\Nwouldn't have even said it. Dialogue: 0,1:18:13.16,1:18:15.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I'm not really sure\Nwhat would happen in Dialogue: 0,1:18:15.35,1:18:19.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the household if there\Nwere just two daughters. Dialogue: 0,1:18:21.39,1:18:24.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Daughters are\Nseen as an economic liability Dialogue: 0,1:18:24.46,1:18:27.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because parents must provide\Na dowry of cash or gifts to Dialogue: 0,1:18:27.83,1:18:29.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,marry them off.