[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.84,0:00:03.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In 2007, I became the attorney general
Dialogue: 0,0:00:03.43,0:00:05.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the state of New Jersey.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:05.16,0:00:07.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Before that, I'd been a criminal prosecutor,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:07.44,0:00:10.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,first in the Manhattan district attorney's office,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:10.12,0:00:12.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then at the United States Department of Justice.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:12.77,0:00:14.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But when I became the attorney general,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:14.97,0:00:18.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,two things happened that changed \Nthe way I see criminal justice.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:18.87,0:00:20.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The first is that I asked what I thought
Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.90,0:00:23.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were really basic questions.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:23.08,0:00:25.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I wanted to understand who we were arresting,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.94,0:00:27.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who we were charging,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.60,0:00:29.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and who we were putting in our nation's jails
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.73,0:00:31.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and prisons.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:31.15,0:00:32.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I also wanted to understand
Dialogue: 0,0:00:32.79,0:00:34.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if we were making decisions
Dialogue: 0,0:00:34.12,0:00:36.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in a way that made us safer.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.64,0:00:39.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I couldn't get this information out.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.89,0:00:43.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It turned out that most big criminal justice agencies
Dialogue: 0,0:00:43.25,0:00:44.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like my own
Dialogue: 0,0:00:44.55,0:00:46.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,didn't track the things that matter.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:46.93,0:00:50.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So after about a month of being incredibly frustrated,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:50.25,0:00:52.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I walked down into a conference room
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.22,0:00:54.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that was filled with detectives
Dialogue: 0,0:00:54.11,0:00:56.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and stacks and stacks of case files,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.90,0:00:58.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the detectives were sitting there
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.07,0:01:00.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with yellow legal pads taking notes.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:00.30,0:01:01.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They were trying to get the information
Dialogue: 0,0:01:01.89,0:01:03.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was looking for
Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.11,0:01:05.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by going through case by case
Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.15,0:01:07.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the past five years.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.05,0:01:08.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And as you can imagine,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:08.70,0:01:11.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when we finally got the results, they weren't good.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:11.35,0:01:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It turned out that we were doing
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.00,0:01:15.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a lot of low-level drug cases
Dialogue: 0,0:01:15.02,0:01:16.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the streets just around the corner
Dialogue: 0,0:01:16.50,0:01:18.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from our office in Trenton.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:18.77,0:01:20.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The second thing that happened
Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.23,0:01:23.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that I spent the day in the Camden,\NNew Jersey police department.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.91,0:01:25.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, at that time, Camden, New Jersey,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.79,0:01:28.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was the most dangerous city in America.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:28.45,0:01:32.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I ran the Camden Police\NDepartment because of that.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:32.27,0:01:34.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I spent the day in the police department,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:34.38,0:01:37.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I was taken into a room\Nwith senior police officials,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.11,0:01:38.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all of whom were working hard
Dialogue: 0,0:01:38.79,0:01:42.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and trying very hard to reduce crime in Camden.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.04,0:01:43.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what I saw in that room,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:43.87,0:01:46.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as we talked about how to reduce crime,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.11,0:01:49.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were a series of officers with a\Nlot of little yellow sticky notes.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.97,0:01:52.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they would take a yellow sticky\Nand they would write something on it
Dialogue: 0,0:01:52.82,0:01:54.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they would put it up on a board.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:54.62,0:01:56.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And one of them said, \N"We had a robbery two weeks ago.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.79,0:01:58.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have no suspects."
Dialogue: 0,0:01:58.50,0:02:03.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And another said, "We had a shooting in this neighborhood last week. We have no suspects."
Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.53,0:02:06.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We weren't using data-driven policing.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:06.11,0:02:08.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We were essentially trying to fight crime
Dialogue: 0,0:02:08.16,0:02:10.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with yellow Post-it notes.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:10.68,0:02:12.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, both of these things made me realize
Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.82,0:02:16.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,fundamentally that we were failing.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.07,0:02:19.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We didn't even know who was\Nin our criminal justice system,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:19.19,0:02:22.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we didn't have any data about\Nthe things that mattered,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:22.43,0:02:24.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we didn't share data or use analytics
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.100,0:02:27.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or tools to help us make better decisions
Dialogue: 0,0:02:27.15,0:02:29.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and to reduce crime.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:29.15,0:02:31.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And for the first time, I started to think
Dialogue: 0,0:02:31.37,0:02:33.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about how we made decisions.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.28,0:02:34.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When I was an assistant D.A.,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:34.68,0:02:36.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and when I was a federal prosecutor,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.55,0:02:38.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I looked at the cases in front of me,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:38.30,0:02:40.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I generally made decisions based on my instinct
Dialogue: 0,0:02:40.92,0:02:42.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and my experience.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:42.61,0:02:44.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When I became attorney general,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:44.27,0:02:45.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I could look at the system as a whole,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.91,0:02:47.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what surprised me is that I found
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.73,0:02:49.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that that was exactly how we were doing it
Dialogue: 0,0:02:49.64,0:02:51.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,across the entire system --
Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.94,0:02:54.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in police departments, in prosecutors's offices,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.34,0:02:57.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in courts and in jails.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:57.14,0:02:59.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what I learned very quickly
Dialogue: 0,0:02:59.34,0:03:02.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that we weren't doing a good job.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:02.97,0:03:04.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I wanted to do things differently.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:04.98,0:03:07.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I wanted to introduce data and analytics
Dialogue: 0,0:03:07.18,0:03:09.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and rigorous statistical analysis
Dialogue: 0,0:03:09.23,0:03:10.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into our work.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:10.63,0:03:13.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In short, I wanted to moneyball criminal justice.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.60,0:03:15.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, moneyball, as many of you know,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:15.63,0:03:17.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is what the Oakland A's did,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.20,0:03:19.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where they used smart data and statistics
Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.17,0:03:20.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to figure out how to pick players
Dialogue: 0,0:03:20.79,0:03:22.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that would help them win games,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:22.31,0:03:25.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they went from a system that \Nwas based on baseball scouts
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.29,0:03:27.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who used to go out and watch players
Dialogue: 0,0:03:27.15,0:03:28.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and use their instinct and experience,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.79,0:03:30.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the scouts' instincts and experience,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:30.53,0:03:32.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to pick players, from one to use
Dialogue: 0,0:03:32.25,0:03:35.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,smart data and rigorous statistical analysis
Dialogue: 0,0:03:35.07,0:03:38.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to figure out how to pick players\Nthat would help them win games.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:38.44,0:03:40.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It worked for the Oakland A's,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:40.24,0:03:42.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it worked in the state of New Jersey.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.46,0:03:44.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We took Camden off the top of the list
Dialogue: 0,0:03:44.53,0:03:46.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as the most dangerous city in America.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.70,0:03:49.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We reduced murders there by 41 percent,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:49.86,0:03:52.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which actually means 37 lives were saved.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:52.84,0:03:56.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we reduced all crime in the city by 26 percent.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.58,0:03:59.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We also changed the way\Nwe did criminal prosecutions.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.82,0:04:01.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we went from doing low-level drug crimes
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.82,0:04:03.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that were outside our building
Dialogue: 0,0:04:03.46,0:04:05.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to doing cases of statewide importance,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:05.80,0:04:08.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on things like reducing violence\Nwith the most violent offenders,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:08.96,0:04:10.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,prosecuting street gangs,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:10.82,0:04:14.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,gun and drug trafficking, and political corruption.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:14.23,0:04:16.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And all of this matters greatly,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.73,0:04:18.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because public safety to me
Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.68,0:04:21.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the most important function of government.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:21.21,0:04:23.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we're not safe, we can't be educated,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.51,0:04:24.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can't be healthy,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:24.86,0:04:27.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can't do any of the other things\Nwe want to do in our lives.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:27.80,0:04:29.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we live in a country today
Dialogue: 0,0:04:29.50,0:04:32.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where we face serious criminal justice problems.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:32.64,0:04:36.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have 12 million arrests every single year.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:36.30,0:04:38.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The vast majority of those arrests
Dialogue: 0,0:04:38.34,0:04:41.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are for low-level crimes, like misdemeanors,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:41.35,0:04:43.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,70 to 80 percent.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:43.09,0:04:45.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Less than five percent of all arrests
Dialogue: 0,0:04:45.08,0:04:46.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are for violent crime.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:46.97,0:04:49.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yet we spend 75 billion,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:49.03,0:04:50.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's b for billion,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:50.45,0:04:54.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,dollars a year on state and local corrections costs.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.57,0:04:57.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Right now, today, we have 2.3 million people
Dialogue: 0,0:04:57.42,0:04:59.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in our jails and prisons.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:59.32,0:05:02.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we face unbelievable public safety challenges
Dialogue: 0,0:05:02.11,0:05:04.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because we have a situation
Dialogue: 0,0:05:04.05,0:05:06.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in which two thirds of the people in our jails
Dialogue: 0,0:05:06.95,0:05:08.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are there waiting for trial.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:08.70,0:05:10.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They haven't yet been convicted of a crime.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.84,0:05:12.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're just waiting for their day in court.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:12.96,0:05:16.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And 67 percent of people come back.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:16.50,0:05:19.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our recidivism rate is amongst \Nthe highest in the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:19.53,0:05:21.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Almost seven in 10 people who are released
Dialogue: 0,0:05:21.64,0:05:23.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from prison will be rearrested
Dialogue: 0,0:05:23.29,0:05:27.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in a constant cycle of crime and incarceration.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:27.24,0:05:29.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So when I started my job at the Arnold Foundation,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:29.82,0:05:32.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I came back to looking at a lot of these questions,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:32.56,0:05:34.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I came back to thinking about how
Dialogue: 0,0:05:34.21,0:05:36.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we had used data and analytics to transform
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.60,0:05:39.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the way we did criminal justice in New Jersey.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:39.18,0:05:41.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And when I look at the criminal justice system
Dialogue: 0,0:05:41.32,0:05:42.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the United States today,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:42.98,0:05:44.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I feel the exact same way that I did
Dialogue: 0,0:05:44.62,0:05:47.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about the state of New Jersey when I started there,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:47.08,0:05:50.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is that we absolutely have to do better,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:50.31,0:05:52.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I know that we can do better.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:52.24,0:05:53.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I decided to focus
Dialogue: 0,0:05:53.94,0:05:56.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on using data and analytics
Dialogue: 0,0:05:56.16,0:05:58.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to help make the most critical decision
Dialogue: 0,0:05:58.52,0:06:00.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in public safety,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.12,0:06:02.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that decision is the determination
Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.15,0:06:04.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of whether, when someone has been arrested,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:04.68,0:06:06.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether they pose a risk to public safety
Dialogue: 0,0:06:06.60,0:06:08.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and should be detained,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:08.12,0:06:10.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or whether they don't pose a risk to public safety
Dialogue: 0,0:06:10.48,0:06:12.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and should be released.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:12.12,0:06:14.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Everything that happens in criminal cases
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.03,0:06:15.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,comes out of this one decision.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:15.81,0:06:17.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It impacts everything.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.30,0:06:18.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It impacts sentencing.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:18.65,0:06:20.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It impacts whether someone gets drug treatment.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:20.55,0:06:22.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It impacts crime and violence.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:22.88,0:06:24.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And when I talk to judges around the United States,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:24.81,0:06:26.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which I do all the time now,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:26.74,0:06:28.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they all say the same thing,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:28.58,0:06:31.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is that we put dangerous people in jail,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:31.68,0:06:35.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we let non-dangerous, nonviolent people out.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:35.21,0:06:37.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They mean it and they believe it.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:37.44,0:06:39.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But when you start to look at the data,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:39.18,0:06:41.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which, by the way, the judges don't have,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:41.64,0:06:43.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when we start to look at the data,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.25,0:06:45.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what we find time and time again,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:45.67,0:06:47.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that this isn't the case.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:47.65,0:06:49.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We find low-risk offenders,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:49.33,0:06:53.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which makes up 50 percent of our\Nentire criminal justice population,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:53.05,0:06:55.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we find that they're in jail.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:55.45,0:06:57.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Take Leslie Chew, who was a Texas man
Dialogue: 0,0:06:57.93,0:07:00.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who stole four blankets on a cold winter night.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.82,0:07:03.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He was arrested, and he was kept in jail
Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.41,0:07:05.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on 3,500 dollars bail,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:05.46,0:07:08.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an amount that he could not afford to pay.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:08.24,0:07:10.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And he stayed in jail for eight months
Dialogue: 0,0:07:10.83,0:07:12.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,until his case came up for trial,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:12.89,0:07:16.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at a cost to taxpayers of more than 9,000 dollars.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:16.80,0:07:18.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And at the other end of the spectrum,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:18.80,0:07:21.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're doing an equally terrible job.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:21.08,0:07:22.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The people who we find
Dialogue: 0,0:07:22.65,0:07:24.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are the highest-risk offenders,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:24.67,0:07:27.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the people who we think have the highest likelihood
Dialogue: 0,0:07:27.16,0:07:29.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of committing a new crime if they're released,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:29.12,0:07:32.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we see nationally that 50 percent of those people
Dialogue: 0,0:07:32.07,0:07:34.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are being released.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:34.04,0:07:37.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The reason for this is the way we make decisions.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:37.22,0:07:38.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Judges have the best intentions
Dialogue: 0,0:07:38.92,0:07:40.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when they make these decisions about risk,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:40.88,0:07:43.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they're making them subjectively.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:43.36,0:07:45.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're like the baseball scouts 20 years ago
Dialogue: 0,0:07:45.51,0:07:47.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who were using their instinct and their experience
Dialogue: 0,0:07:47.64,0:07:50.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to try to decide what risk someone poses.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:50.32,0:07:51.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're being subjective,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.85,0:07:54.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we know what happens\Nwith subjective decision making,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:54.91,0:07:57.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is that we are often wrong.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:57.65,0:07:59.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What we need in this space
Dialogue: 0,0:07:59.03,0:08:01.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are strong data and analytics.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:01.58,0:08:03.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What I decided to look for
Dialogue: 0,0:08:03.33,0:08:06.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was a strong data and analytic risk assessment tool,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:06.17,0:08:08.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,something that would let judges actually understand
Dialogue: 0,0:08:08.93,0:08:11.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with a scientific and objective way
Dialogue: 0,0:08:11.19,0:08:12.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what the risk was that was posed
Dialogue: 0,0:08:12.84,0:08:14.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by someone in front of them.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:14.45,0:08:16.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I looked all over the country,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:16.10,0:08:18.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I found that between five and 10 percent
Dialogue: 0,0:08:18.04,0:08:19.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of all U.S. jurisdictions
Dialogue: 0,0:08:19.37,0:08:22.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,actually use any type of risk assessment tool,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:22.34,0:08:23.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and when I looked at these tools,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:23.97,0:08:25.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I quickly realized why.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:25.83,0:08:28.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They were unbelievably expensive to administer,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:28.52,0:08:30.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they were time-consuming,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:30.05,0:08:32.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they were limited to the local jurisdiction
Dialogue: 0,0:08:32.16,0:08:33.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in which they'd been created.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:33.58,0:08:35.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So basically, they couldn't be scaled
Dialogue: 0,0:08:35.38,0:08:37.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or transferred to other places.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:37.59,0:08:39.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I went out and built a phenomenal team
Dialogue: 0,0:08:39.82,0:08:41.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of data scientists and researchers
Dialogue: 0,0:08:41.87,0:08:43.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and statisticians
Dialogue: 0,0:08:43.49,0:08:46.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to build a universal risk assessment tool,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:46.34,0:08:48.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so that every single judge in\Nthe United States of America
Dialogue: 0,0:08:48.73,0:08:53.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can have an objective, scientific measure of risk.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:53.06,0:08:54.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the tool that we've built,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:54.71,0:08:57.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what we did was we collected 1.5 million cases
Dialogue: 0,0:08:57.58,0:08:59.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from all around the United States,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:59.28,0:09:00.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from cities, from counties,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:00.92,0:09:02.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from every single state in the country,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:02.44,0:09:04.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the federal districts.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:04.18,0:09:06.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And with those 1.5 million cases,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:06.37,0:09:08.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is the largest data set on pretrial
Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.31,0:09:10.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the United States today,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:10.12,0:09:11.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we were able to basically find that there were
Dialogue: 0,0:09:11.98,0:09:15.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,900-plus risk factors that we could look at
Dialogue: 0,0:09:15.30,0:09:18.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to try to figure out what mattered most.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:18.17,0:09:20.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we found that there were nine specific things
Dialogue: 0,0:09:20.25,0:09:22.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that mattered all across the country
Dialogue: 0,0:09:22.48,0:09:25.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that were the most highly predictive of risk.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:25.46,0:09:29.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so we built a universal risk assessment tool.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:29.17,0:09:30.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it looks like this.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:30.61,0:09:33.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As you'll see, we put some information in,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:33.22,0:09:35.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but most of it is incredibly simple,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:35.24,0:09:36.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's easy to use,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:36.67,0:09:39.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it focuses on things like the\Ndefendant's prior convictions,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:39.64,0:09:41.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether they've been sentenced to incarceration,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:41.62,0:09:43.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether they've engaged in violence before,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:43.88,0:09:46.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether they've even failed to come back to court.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:46.27,0:09:48.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And with this tool, we can predict three things.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:48.77,0:09:50.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,First, whether or not someone will commit
Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.63,0:09:52.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a new crime if they're released.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:52.19,0:09:53.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Second, for the first time,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.86,0:09:55.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I think this is incredibly important,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:55.72,0:09:57.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can predict whether someone will commit
Dialogue: 0,0:09:57.64,0:09:59.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an act of violence if they're released.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:59.47,0:10:01.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's the single most important thing
Dialogue: 0,0:10:01.36,0:10:03.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that judges say when you talk to them.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:03.17,0:10:04.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And third, we can predict whether someone
Dialogue: 0,0:10:04.100,0:10:06.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will come back to court.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:06.98,0:10:10.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And every single judge in the\NUnited States of America can use it,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:10.02,0:10:13.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it's been created on a universal data set.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:13.83,0:10:16.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What judges see if they run the risk assessment tool
Dialogue: 0,0:10:16.44,0:10:18.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is this -- it's a dashboard.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:18.56,0:10:21.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At the top, you see the New Criminal Activity Score,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:21.41,0:10:23.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,six of course being the highest,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:23.34,0:10:25.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then in the middle you\Nsee, "Elevated risk of violence."
Dialogue: 0,0:10:25.74,0:10:27.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What that says is that this person
Dialogue: 0,0:10:27.48,0:10:29.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is someone who has an elevated risk of violence
Dialogue: 0,0:10:29.54,0:10:31.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the judge should look twice at.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:31.43,0:10:32.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then, towards the bottom,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:32.77,0:10:34.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you see the Failure to Appear Score,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:34.73,0:10:36.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which again is the likelihood
Dialogue: 0,0:10:36.13,0:10:39.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that someone will come back to court.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:39.14,0:10:41.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now I want to say something really important.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:41.35,0:10:44.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not that I think we should be eliminating
Dialogue: 0,0:10:44.08,0:10:46.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the judge's instinct and experience
Dialogue: 0,0:10:46.32,0:10:47.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from this process.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:47.93,0:10:48.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don't.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:48.98,0:10:50.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I actually believe the problem that we see
Dialogue: 0,0:10:50.99,0:10:53.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the reason that we have\Nthese incredible system errors,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:53.85,0:10:56.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where we're incarcerating\Nlow-level, nonviolent people
Dialogue: 0,0:10:56.93,0:11:00.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we're releasing high-risk, dangerous people,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:00.10,0:11:02.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that we don't have an objective measure of risk.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:02.83,0:11:04.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But what I believe should happen
Dialogue: 0,0:11:04.13,0:11:06.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that we should take that\Ndata-driven risk assessment
Dialogue: 0,0:11:06.93,0:11:09.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and combine that with the\Njudge's instinct and experience
Dialogue: 0,0:11:09.97,0:11:12.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to lead us to better decision making.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:12.93,0:11:16.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The tool went statewide in Kentucky on July 1,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:16.23,0:11:19.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we're about to go up in a\Nnumber of other U.S. jurisdictions.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:19.58,0:11:22.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our goal, quite simply, is that every single judge
Dialogue: 0,0:11:22.17,0:11:24.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the United States will use a data-driven risk tool
Dialogue: 0,0:11:24.36,0:11:26.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,within the next five years.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:26.46,0:11:27.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're now working on risk tools
Dialogue: 0,0:11:27.81,0:11:31.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for prosecutors and for police officers as well,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:31.09,0:11:33.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to try to take a system that runs today
Dialogue: 0,0:11:33.79,0:11:36.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in America the same way it did 50 years ago,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:36.59,0:11:38.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,based on instinct and experience,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:38.68,0:11:40.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and make it into one that runs
Dialogue: 0,0:11:40.54,0:11:43.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on data and analytics.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:43.01,0:11:44.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, the great news about all this,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:44.93,0:11:46.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we have a ton of work left to do,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:46.55,0:11:48.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we have a lot of culture to change,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:48.40,0:11:50.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but the great news about all of it
Dialogue: 0,0:11:50.15,0:11:52.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that we know it works.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:52.02,0:11:54.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's why Google is Google,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:54.17,0:11:56.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's why all these baseball teams use moneyball
Dialogue: 0,0:11:56.63,0:11:58.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to win games.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:58.41,0:12:00.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The great news for us as well
Dialogue: 0,0:12:00.15,0:12:02.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that it's the way that we can transform
Dialogue: 0,0:12:02.05,0:12:04.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the American criminal justice system.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:04.37,0:12:06.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's how we can make our streets safer,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:06.72,0:12:09.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can reduce our prison costs,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:09.02,0:12:11.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we can make our system much fairer
Dialogue: 0,0:12:11.09,0:12:12.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and more just.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:12.82,0:12:14.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Some people call it data science.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:14.98,0:12:17.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I call it moneyballing criminal justice.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:17.28,0:12:19.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:19.08,0:12:23.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)