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I want you to reimagine
how life is organized on earth.

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Think of the planet like
a human body that we inhabit.

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The skeleton is the transportation system
of roads and railways,

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bridges and tunnels,
air and seaports

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that enable our mobility
across the continents.

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The vascular system
that powers the body,

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or oil and gas pipelines
and electricity grids.

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that distribute energy.

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And the nervous system
of communications

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is the internet cables,
satellites, cellular networks

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and data centers that allow
us to share information.

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This ever-expanding infrastructural matrix


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already consists of 64 million
kilometers of roads,

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4 million kilometers of railways,

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2 million kilometers of pipelines,

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and one million kilometers
of internet cables.

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What about international borders?

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We have less than
500,000 kilometers of borders.

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Let's build a better map
of the world.

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And we can start by overcoming
some ancient mythology.

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There's a saying with which
all students of history are familiar:

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"Geography is destiny."

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Sounds so grave, doesn't it?

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It's such a fatalistic adage.

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It tells us that landlocked countries
are condemned to be poor,

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that small countries cannot escape
their larger neighbors,

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that vast distances are insurmountable.

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But every journey I take 
around the world,

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I see an even greater force
sweeping the planet:

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connectivity.

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The global connectivity revolution,
in all of its forms --

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transportation, energy
and communications--

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has enabled such a quantum leap
in the mobility of people,

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of goods, of resources,
of knowledge,

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such that we can no longer think
of geography as distinct from it.

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In fact, I view the two forces
as fusing together

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into what I call connectography.

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Connectography represents
a quantum leap

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in the mobility of people, resources
and ideas,

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but it is an evolution,

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an evolution of the world from 
political geography,

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which is how we legally divide
the world,

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to functional geography,

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which is how we actually
use the world,

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from nations and borders,
to infrastructure and supply chains.

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Our global system is evolving

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from the vertically integrated
empires of the 19th century,

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through the horizontally,
interdependent nations

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of the 20th century,

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into a global network civilization
in the 21st century.

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Connectivity, not sovereignty, 
has become

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the organizing principle
of the human species.

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(Applause)

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We are becoming this 
global network civilization

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because we are literally building it.

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All of the world's defense budgets
and military spending

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taken together total just under
2 trillion dollars per year.

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Meanwhile, our global infrastructure
spending is projected to rise

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to 9 trillion dollars per year
within the coming decade.

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And, well, it should.

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We have been living off
an infrastructure stock

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meant for a world population
of 3 billion,

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as our population has crossed
7 billion to 8 billion

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and eventually 9 billion and more.

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As a rule of thumb, we should spend
about 1 trillion dollars

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on the basic infrastructure needs
of every billion people in the world.

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Not surprisingly, Asia is in the lead.

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In 2015, China announced the creation

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of the Asia Infrastructure 
and Investment Bank,

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which together with a network
of other organizations,

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aims to construct a network
of iron and silk roads,

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stretching from Shanghai to Lisbon.

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And as all of this topographical
engineering unfolds,

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we will likely spend more 
on infrastrucutre

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in the next 40 years,


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we will build more infrastructure
in the next 40 years,

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than we have in the last 4,000 years.

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Now let's stop and think about it
for a minute.

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Spending so much more


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on building the foundations
of global society

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rather than on the tools
to destroy it

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can have profound consequences.

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Connectivity is how we optimize
the distribution

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of people and resources
around the world.

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It is how mankind comes to be more
than just the sum of its parts.

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I believe that is what is happening.

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Connectivity has a twin megatrend
in the the 21st century:

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planetary urbanization.

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Cities are the infrastructures
that most define us.

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By 2030, more than two thirds
of the world's population

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will live in cities.

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And these are not mere 
little dots on the map,

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but they are vast archepelagos
stretching hundreds of kilomters.

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Here we are in Vancouver,

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at the head of the Cascadia Corridor


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that stretches south across 
the US border to Seattle.

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The technology powerhouse 
of SIlicon Valley

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begins north of San Francisco
down to San Jose

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and across the bay to Oakland.

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The sprawl of Los Angeles
now passes San Diego

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across the Mexican border
to Tijuana.

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San Diego and Tijuana
now share an airport terminal

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where you can exit into either country.

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Eventually, a high-speed rail network
may connect the entire Pacific spine.

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America's northeastern megalopolis
begins in Boston through New York

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and Philadelphia to Washington.

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It contains more than 50 million people

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and also has plans for a high-speed
rail network.

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But Asia is where we really see
the megacities coming together.

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This continous strip of light
from Tokyo through Negoya

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to Osaka contains 
more than 80 million people,

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and most of Japan's economy.

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It is the world's largest megacity.

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For now.

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But in China, megacity clusters
are coming together

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with populations reaching
100 million people.

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The Bohai Rim around Beijing,

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The Yangtze River Delta
around Shanghai

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and the Pearl River Delta,

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stretching from Hong Kong
to ?

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And in the middle,

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the ? megacity,

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whose geographic footprint
is almost the same size

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as the country of Austria.

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And any number of these
megacity clusters

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has a GDP approaching
2 trillion dollars,

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that's almost the same
of all of India today.

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So imagine if our global diplomatic
institutions, such as the G20

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were to base their membership
of economic size

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rather than national representation.

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Some Chinese megacities may be in
and have a seat at the table,

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while entire countries,
like Argentina and Indonesia would be out.

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Moving to India, whose population
will soon exceed that of China,

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it too has a number of megacity clusters,

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such as the Delhi capital region
and Mumbai.

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In the Middle East, greater Tehran
is absorbing

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one third of Iran's population.

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Most of Egypt's 80 million people

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live in the corridor between
Cairo and Alexandria.

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And in the gulf, a necklace
of city-states is forming,

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from Bahrain and Qatar,

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through the United Arab Emirates
to Muscat in Oman.

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And then there's Lagos,

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Africa's largest city
and Nigeria's commerical hub.

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It has plans for a rail network
that will make it the anchor

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of a vast Atlantic coastal corridor,

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stretching across Benin,
Togo and Ghana,

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to Abidjan, the capital
of the Ivory Coast.

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But these countries
are suburbs of Lagos.

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In the megacity world,

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countries can be suburbs of cities.

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By 2030, we will have as many 
as 50 such megacity clusters

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in the world.

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So which map tells you more?

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Our traditional map of 200 discret nations
that hang on most of our wallls,

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or this map of the 50 megacity clusters?

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And yet, even this is incomplete

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because you cannot understand
any individual megacity

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without understanding its connections
to the others.

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People move to cities to be connected,

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and connectivity is 
why these cities thrive.

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Any number of them such as Sao Paolo
or Istanbul or Moscow

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has a GDP approaching or exceeding
one third of one half

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of their entire national GDP.

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But equally importantly,

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you cannot calculate any of their
individual value

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without understanding the role
of the flows of people,

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of finance, of technology

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that enable them to thrive.

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Take the Gauteng province
of South Africa,

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which contains Johannesburg
and the capital Pretoria.

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It too represents just over
a third of South Africa's GDP.

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Equally importantly, it is home
to the offices

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of almost every single multinational
corporation

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that invests directly into South Africa

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and indeed, into the entire
African continent.

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Cities want to be part
of global value chains.

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They want to be part 
of this global division of labor.

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That is how cities think.

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I've never met a mayor
who said to me,

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"I want my city to be cut off"

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They know that their cities
belong as much

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to the global network civilization
as to their home countries.

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Now for many people, urbanization
causes great dismay.

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They think cities are wrecking the planet.

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But right now, there are more 
than

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200 intercity learning networks thriving.

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That is as many as the
intergovernmental organizations

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that we have.

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And all of these intercity networks
are devoted to one purpose,

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mankind's number one priority
in the 21st century:

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sustainable urbanization.

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Is it working?

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Let's take climate change.

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We know that summit after summit
in New York and Paris

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is not going to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions.

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But what we can see is that
transffering technology

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and knowledge and policies
between cities

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is how we've actually begun
to reduce

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the carbon intensity of our economies.

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Cities are learning from each other.

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How to install zero-emissions buildings,

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how to deploy electric car-sharing systems.

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In major Chinese cities, they're imposing
quotas

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on the number of cars on the streets.

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In many Western cities,

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young people don't even 
want to drive anymore.

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Cities have been part of the problem,

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now they are part of the solution.

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Inequality is the other great challenge


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to achieving sustainable urbanization.

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When I travel through megacities
from end to end,

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it takes hours and days,

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I experience the tragedy
of extreme disparity

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within the same geography.

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And yet, our global stock
of financial assets

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has never been larger,

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approaching 300 trillion dollars.

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That's almost four times
the actual GDP of the world.

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We have taken on such
enormous debts

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since the financial crisis,

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00:11:48,921 --> 00:11:53,054
but have we invested them
in inclusive growth?

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No, not yet.

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Only when we build sufficient,
affordable public housing,

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when we invest in robust
transportation networks

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to allow people to connect
to each other

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both physically and digitally,

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that's when our divided cities
and societies

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will come to feel whole again.

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(Applause)

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And that is why infrastructure
has just been included

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in the United Nations 
Sustainable Development Goals,

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because it enables all the others.

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Our political and economic leaders

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are learning that connectivity
is not charity,

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it's an opportunity.

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And that's why our financial community
needs to undestand

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that connectivity is the most
important asset class of the 21st centiry.

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Now, cities can make the world
more sustainable,

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they can make the world
more equitable,

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I also believe that connectivity
between cities

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can make the world
more peaceful.

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If we look at regions of the world
with dense relations across borders,

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we see more trade, more investment,

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and more stability.

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00:13:01,088 --> 00:13:03,573
We all know the sotry of
Europe after WWII,

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where industrial integration
kicked off a process

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00:13:05,964 --> 00:13:09,215
that gave rise today's peaceful
European Union.

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And you can see that Russia,
by the way,

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is the least connected 
of major powers

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in the internaitonla system.

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And that goes a long way
towards explaining

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tensions today.

254
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Countries that have less stake
in the system

255
00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:26,653
also have less to loose
in disturbing it.

256
00:13:26,653 --> 00:13:28,813
In North America, the lines
that matter most on the map

257
00:13:28,813 --> 00:13:33,736
are not the US-Canada border
or the US-Mexico border,

258
00:13:33,736 --> 00:13:34,386
but the dense network of roads
and railways and pipelines

259
00:13:34,386 --> 00:13:40,005
and electricity grids
and even water canals

260
00:13:40,005 --> 00:13:43,767
that are forming an integrated
North American union.

261
00:13:43,767 --> 00:13:47,087
North America does not need
more walls,

262
00:13:47,087 --> 00:13:48,829
it needs more connections.

263
00:13:48,829 --> 00:13:56,189
(Applause)

264
00:13:56,189 --> 00:14:00,485
But the real promise of connectivity
is in the post-colonial world.

265
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All of those regions where borders
have historically been

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the most arbitrary

267
00:14:04,781 --> 00:14:09,494
and where generations of leaders
have had hostile relations with each other,

268
00:14:09,494 --> 00:14:11,700
but now a new group of leaders
has come into power

269
00:14:11,700 --> 00:14:14,045
and is burying the hatchet.

270
00:14:14,045 --> 00:14:15,833
Let's take Southeast Asia,

271
00:14:15,833 --> 00:14:17,714
where high-speed rail networks
are planned

272
00:14:17,714 --> 00:14:19,456
to connect Bangkok to Singapore

273
00:14:19,456 --> 00:14:22,219
and trade corridors from Vietnam
to Myanmar.

274
00:14:22,219 --> 00:14:25,632
Now this region of 600 million people

275
00:14:25,632 --> 00:14:28,140
coordinates its agricultural resources
and its

276
00:14:28,140 --> 00:14:29,928
and its industrial output.

277
00:14:29,928 --> 00:14:34,734
It is evolving into what I call
a Pax Asiana,

278
00:14:34,734 --> 00:14:38,287
a peace among Southeast Asian nations.

279
00:14:38,287 --> 00:14:41,422
A similar phenomenon
is underway in East Africa,

280
00:14:41,422 --> 00:14:43,581
where a half dozen countries
are investing

281
00:14:43,581 --> 00:14:46,298
in railways and multimodal corridors

282
00:14:46,298 --> 00:14:50,013
so that landlocked countries
can get their goods to market.

283
00:14:50,013 --> 00:14:51,778
Now these countries coordinate
their utilities

284
00:14:51,778 --> 00:14:54,146
and their investment policies.

285
00:14:54,146 --> 00:14:59,998
They, too, are evolving
into a Pax Africana.

286
00:14:59,998 --> 00:15:02,366
One region we know that could
especially use this kind of thinking


287
00:15:02,366 --> 00:15:04,944
is the Middle East.

288
00:15:04,944 --> 00:15:06,731
As Arab states tragically collapse,

289
00:15:06,731 --> 00:15:09,471
what is left behind but
the ancient cities,

290
00:15:09,471 --> 00:15:12,583
such as Cairo, Beirut
and Baghdad.

291
00:15:12,583 --> 00:15:17,529
In fact, the nearly 400 million people
of the Arab world

292
00:15:17,529 --> 00:15:19,851
are almost entirely urbanized.

293
00:15:19,851 --> 00:15:21,685
As societies, as cities,

294
00:15:21,685 --> 00:15:23,775
they are either water rich or water poor,

295
00:15:23,775 --> 00:15:26,306
energy rich or energy poor.

296
00:15:26,306 --> 00:15:28,976
And the only way to correct
these mismatches

297
00:15:28,976 --> 00:15:31,739
is not through more wars
and more borders,

298
00:15:31,739 --> 00:15:36,337
but through more connectivity
of pipelines and water canals.

299
00:15:36,337 --> 00:15:40,516
Sadly, this is not yet the map
of the Middle East.

300
00:15:40,516 --> 00:15:41,747
But it should be,

301
00:15:41,747 --> 00:15:47,065
a connected Pax Arabia,

302
00:15:47,065 --> 00:15:53,009
internally integrated and
productively connected

303
00:15:53,009 --> 00:15:58,558
to its neighbors: Europe, Asia
and Africa.

304
00:15:58,558 --> 00:15:59,696
Now it may not seem like
connectivity is what we want right now

305
00:15:59,696 --> 00:16:00,509
towards the world's most turbulent region.

306
00:16:00,509 --> 00:16:02,483
But we know from history 
that more connectivity is the only way

307
00:16:02,483 --> 00:16:05,478
to bring out stability in the long run,

308
00:16:05,478 --> 00:16:07,870
because we know that in region after region,

309
00:16:07,870 --> 00:16:10,749
connectivity is the new reality.

310
00:16:10,749 --> 00:16:13,582
Cities and countries are learning
to aggregate

311
00:16:13,582 --> 00:16:17,576
into more peaceful and prosperous wholes.

312
00:16:17,576 --> 00:16:21,337
But the real test is going to be Asia.

313
00:16:21,337 --> 00:16:23,264
Can connectivity overcome
the patterns of rivarly

314
00:16:23,264 --> 00:16:26,747
among the far east.

315
00:16:26,747 --> 00:16:29,627
After all, this is where
World War III

316
00:16:29,627 --> 00:16:32,297
is supposed to break out.

317
00:16:32,297 --> 00:16:35,316
Since the end of the Cold War,
a quarter-century ago,

318
00:16:35,316 --> 00:16:38,636
at least 6 major wars have been
predicted for this region.

319
00:16:38,636 --> 00:16:41,237
But none have broken out.

320
00:16:41,237 --> 00:16:43,837
Take China and Taiwan.

321
00:16:43,837 --> 00:16:48,435
In the 1990s, this was everyone's 
leading WWIII scenario.

322
00:16:48,435 --> 00:16:50,037
But since that time,

323
00:16:50,037 --> 00:16:52,638
the trade and investment volumes
across the straits

324
00:16:52,638 --> 00:16:55,447
have become so intense that last November,

325
00:16:55,447 --> 00:16:58,582
leaders from both sides
held a historic summit

326
00:16:58,582 --> 00:17:02,436
to discuss eventual peaceful
reunification.

327
00:17:02,436 --> 00:17:05,153
And even the election of
a Nationalist party in Taiwan

328
00:17:05,153 --> 00:17:07,893
that's pro-independence 
earlier this year

329
00:17:07,893 --> 00:17:11,678
does not undermine
this fundamental dynamic.

330
00:17:11,678 --> 00:17:14,581
China and Japan have an even 
longer history of rivalry

331
00:17:14,581 --> 00:17:16,485
and have been deploying their 
air forces and navies

332
00:17:16,485 --> 00:17:19,828
to show their strength
in island disputes.

333
00:17:19,828 --> 00:17:21,941
But in recent years, Japan
has been making

334
00:17:21,941 --> 00:17:23,938
its largest foreign investments
in China.

335
00:17:23,938 --> 00:17:27,677
Japanese cars are selling
in record numbers there.

336
00:17:27,677 --> 00:17:31,717
And guess where the largest number
of foreigners

337
00:17:31,717 --> 00:17:34,387
residing in Japan today
comes from?

338
00:17:34,387 --> 00:17:37,754
You guessed it: China.

339
00:17:37,754 --> 00:17:40,192
China and India have fought
a major war

340
00:17:40,192 --> 00:17:41,701
and have three outstanding
border disputes,

341
00:17:41,701 --> 00:17:44,186
but today India is the second largest
shareholder

342
00:17:44,186 --> 00:17:46,624
in the Asia Infrastructure
Investment Bank.

343
00:17:46,624 --> 00:17:49,898
Their building a trade corridor
stretching from Northeast India

344
00:17:49,898 --> 00:17:54,589
through Myanmar and Bangladesh
to Southern China.

345
00:17:54,589 --> 00:17:58,420
Their trade volume has grown
from 20 billion dollars a decade ago

346
00:17:58,420 --> 00:18:00,928
to 80 billion dollars today.

347
00:18:00,928 --> 00:18:03,876
Nuclear-armed Indian and Pakistan
have fought three wars

348
00:18:03,876 --> 00:18:06,431
and continue to dispute Kashmir,

349
00:18:06,431 --> 00:18:09,542
but they're also negotiating
a Most-Favored Nation trade agreement

350
00:18:09,542 --> 00:18:11,330
and want to complete
a pipeline

351
00:18:11,330 --> 00:18:15,672
stretching from Iran 
through Pakistan to India.

352
00:18:15,672 --> 00:18:18,250
And let's talk about Iran.

353
00:18:18,250 --> 00:18:23,822
Wasn't it just two years ago
that war with Iran seemed inevitable?

354
00:18:23,822 --> 00:18:29,047
Than why is every single major power
rushing to do business there today?

355
00:18:29,047 --> 00:18:31,439
Ladies and gentlemen, I cannot
guarentee

356
00:18:31,439 --> 00:18:35,084
that WWIII will not break out.

357
00:18:35,084 --> 00:18:38,823
But we can definitely see
why it hasn't happened yet.

358
00:18:38,823 --> 00:18:40,123
Even though Asia is home


359
00:18:40,123 --> 00:18:42,747
to the world's fastest growing militaries,

360
00:18:42,747 --> 00:18:46,299
these same countries are also
investing billions of dollars

361
00:18:46,299 --> 00:18:49,388
in each other's infrastructure
and supply chains.

362
00:18:49,388 --> 00:18:56,005
They are more interested
in each other's functional geography

363
00:18:56,005 --> 00:18:58,420
than in their political geography.

364
00:18:59,233 --> 00:19:00,394
And that is why their leaders
think twice,

365
00:19:00,394 --> 00:19:00,998
step back from the brink,

366
00:19:00,998 --> 00:19:06,686
and decide to focus on economic ties
over territorial tensions.

367
00:19:06,686 --> 00:19:10,030
So often it seems like the world
is falling apart,

368
00:19:10,030 --> 00:19:11,934
but building more connectivity


369
00:19:11,934 --> 00:19:15,882
is how we put Humpty-Dumpty
back together again,

370
00:19:15,882 --> 00:19:18,157
much better than before.

371
00:19:18,157 --> 00:19:19,365
And by wrapping the world


372
00:19:19,365 --> 00:19:22,824
in such seamless physical
and digital connectivity,

373
00:19:22,824 --> 00:19:27,074
we evolve towards a world
in which people can rise above

374
00:19:27,074 --> 00:19:29,372
their geographic contraints.

375
00:19:29,372 --> 00:19:32,995
We are the cells and vessels
pulsing through

376
00:19:32,995 --> 00:19:35,572
these global connectivity networks.

377
00:19:35,572 --> 00:19:39,171
Everyday, hundreds of millions
of people go online

378
00:19:39,171 --> 00:19:41,958
and work with people they've never met.

379
00:19:41,958 --> 00:19:45,441
More than one billion people
cross borders every year,

380
00:19:45,441 --> 00:19:48,924
and that's expected to rise
to three billion

381
00:19:48,924 --> 00:19:50,131
in the coming decade.

382
00:19:50,131 --> 00:19:53,335
We don't just build connectivity,

383
00:19:53,335 --> 00:19:55,448
we embody it.

384
00:19:55,448 --> 00:19:58,838
We are the global network civilization,

385
00:19:58,838 --> 00:20:01,741
and this is our map.

386
00:20:01,741 --> 00:20:06,919
A map of the world in which
geography is no longer destiny.

387
00:20:06,919 --> 00:20:11,609
Instead, the future has a new
and more hopeful motto:

388
00:20:11,609 --> 00:20:14,326
connectivity is destiny.

389
00:20:14,326 --> 00:20:15,092
Thank you.

390
00:20:15,092 --> 00:20:21,478
(Applause)