WEBVTT

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I want you to reimagine
how life is organized on earth.

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Think of the planet like
a human body that we inhabit.

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The skeleton is the transportation system
of roads and railways,

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bridges and tunnels,
air and seaports

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that enable our mobility
across the contient.

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The vascular system
that powers the body

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with oil and gas pipelines
that distribute energy.

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And the nervous system
of communications

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is the internet cables,
satellites, cellular networks

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and data centers that allow
us to share information.

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This ever-expanding infrastructural matrix
of 64 million kilometers of roads,

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4 million kilometers of railways,

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2 million kilometers of pipelines,

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and 1 million kilometers
of internet cables.

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What about international borders?

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We have less than
500,000 kilometers of borders.

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Let's build a better map
of the world.

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And we can start by overcoming
some ancient mythology.

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There's a saying with which
all students of history are familiar:

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"Geography is destiny."

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Sounds so grave, doesn't it?

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It's such a fatalistic adage.

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It tells us that landlocked countries
are condemned to be poor,

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that small countries cannot escape
their larger neighbors,

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that vast distances are insurmountable.

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But every journey I take 
around the world,

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I see an even greater force
sweeping the planet:

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connectivity.

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The global connectivity revolution,
in all of its forms --

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transportation, energy
and communications--

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has enabled such a quantum leap
in the mobility of people,

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of goods, of resources,
of knowledge,

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such that we can no longer think
of geography as distinct from it.

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In fact, I view the two forces
as fusing together

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into what I call connectography.

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Connectography represents
a quantum leap

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in the mobility of people, resources
and ideas,

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but it is an evolution,

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an evolution of the world from 
political geography,

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which is how we legally divide
the world,

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to functional geography,

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which is how we actually
use the world,

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from nations and borders,
to infrastructure and supply chains.

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Our global system is evolving

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from the vertically integrated
empires of the 19th century,

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through the horizontally,
interdependent nations

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of the 20th century,

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into a global network civilization
in the 21st century.

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Connectivity, not sovereignty, 
has become

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the organizing principle
of the human species.

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(Applause)

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We are becoming this global network
civilization

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because we are literally building it.

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All of the world's defense budgets
and military spending

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taken together total just under
2 trillion dollars per year.

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Meanwhile, our global infrastructure
spending is projected to rise

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to 9 trillion dollars per year
within the coming decade.

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And, well, it should.

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We have been living off
an infrastructure stock

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meant for a world population
of 3 billion,

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as our population has crossed
7 billion to 8 billion

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and eventually 9 billion and more.

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As a rule of thumb, we should spend
about 1 trillion dollars

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on the basic infrastructure needs
of every billion people in the world.

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Not surprisingly, Asia is in the lead.

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In 2015, China announced the creation

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of the Asia Infrastructure 
and Investment Bank,

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which together with a network
of other organizations,

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aims to construct a network
of iron and silk roads,

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stretching from Shanghai to Lisbon.

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And as all of this topographical
engineering unfolds,

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we will likely spend more 
on infrastrucutre

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in the nest 40 years,


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we will build more infrastructure
in the next 40 years,


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than we have in the last 4,000 years.

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Now let's stop and think about it
for a little minute.

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Spending so much more


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on building the foundations
of global society

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rather than on the tools
to destroy it

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can have profound consequences.

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Connectivity is how we optimize
the distribution

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of people and resources
around the world.

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It is how mankind comes to be more
than just the sum of its parts.

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I believe that is what is happening.

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Connectivity has a twin megatrend
in the the 21st century:

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planetary urbanization.

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Cities are the infrastructures
that most define us.

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By 2030, more than two thirds
of the world's population

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will live in cities.

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And these are not mere dots
on the map,

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but they are vast archepelagos
stretching hundreds of kilomters.

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Here we are in Vancouver,

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at the head of the Cascadia Corridor


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that stretches south across the US border
to Seattle.

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The technology powerhouse 
of SIlicon Valley

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begins north of San Francisco
down to San Jose

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and across the bay to Oakland.

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The sprawl of Los Angeles
now passes San Diego

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across the Mexican border
to Tijuana.

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San Diego and Tijuana
now share an airport terminal

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where you can exit into either country.

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Eventually, a high-speed rail network
may connect the entire Pacific spine.

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America's northeastern megalopolis
begins in Boston through New York

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and Philadelphia to Washingotn.

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It contains more than 50 million people

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and also has plans for a high-speed
rail network.

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But Asia is where we really see
the magacities coming together.

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This continous strip of light
from Tokyo through Negoya

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to Osaka contains 
more than 80 million people,

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and most of Japan's economy.

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It is the world's largest megacity.

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For now.

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But in China, megacity clusters
are coming together

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with populations reaching
100 million people.

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The Yangtze River Delta
around Shanghai

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and the Pearl River Delta,

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stretching from Hong Kong
to ?

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And in the middle,

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the ? mgacity,

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whose geographic footprint
is almost the same size

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as the country of Austria.

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And any number of these
megacity clusters

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has a GDP approaching
2 trillion dollars,

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that's almost the same
of all of India today.

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So imagine if our global diplomatic
institutions like the G20

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were to base their membership
of economic size

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rather than national representation.

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Some Chinese megacities may be in
and have a seat at the table,

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while entire countries,
like Argentina and Indonesia may be out.

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Moving to India, whose population
will soon exceed that of China,

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it too has a number of megacity clusters,

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such as the Delhi capital region
and Mumbai.

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In the Middle East, greater Tehran
is absorbing

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one third of Iran's population.

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Most of Egypt's 30 million people

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live in the corridor between
Cairo and Alexandria.

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And in the gulf, a necklace
of citystates if forming,

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from Bahrain to Qatar,

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through the United Arab Emirates
through Muscat in Oman.

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And then there's Lagos,

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Africa's largest city
and Nigeria's commerical hub.

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It has plans for a rail network
that will make it the anchor

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of a vast Atlantic coastal corridor,

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stretching across Benin,
Togo and Ghana,

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to Abidjan, the capital
of the Ivory Coast.

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But these countries
are suburbs of Lagos.

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In the megacity world,

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countries can be suburbs of cities.

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By 2030, we will have as many 
as 50 such megacity clusters

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in the world.

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So which map tells you more?

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Our traditional map of 200 discret nations
that hang on most of our wallls,

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or this map of the 50 megacity clusters?

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And yet, even this is incomplete

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because you cannot understand
any individual megacity

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without understanding its connections
to the others.

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People move to cities to be connected,

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and connectivity is 
why these cities thrive.

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Any number of them such as Sao Paolo
or Istanbul or Moscow

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has a GDP approaching or exceeding
one third of one half

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of their entire national GDP.

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But equally importantly,

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you cannot calculate any of their
individual value

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without understanding the role
of the flows of people,

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of finance, of technology

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that enable them to thrive.

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Take the Gauteng province
of South Africa,

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which contains Johannesburg
and the capital Pretoria.

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It too represents just over
a third of South Africa's GDP.

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Equally importantly, it is home
to the offices

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of almost every single multinational
corporation

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that invests directly into South Africa

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and indeed, into the entire
African continent.

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Cities want to be part
of global value chains.

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They want to be part 
of this global division of labor.

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That is how cities think.

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I've never met a mayor
who said to me,

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"I want my city to be cut off"

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They know that their cities
belong as much

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to the global network civilization
as to their home countries.

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Now for many people, urbanization
causes great dismay.

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They think cities are wrecking the planet.

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But right now, there are more 
than

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200 intercity learning networks thriving.

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That is as many as the
intergovernmental organizations

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that we have.

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And all of these intercity networks
are devoted to one purpose,

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mankind's number one priority
in the 21st century:

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sustainable urbanization.

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Is it working?

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Let's take climate change.

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We know that summit after summit
in New York and Paris

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is not going to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions.

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But what we can see is that
transffering technology

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and knowledge and policies
between cities

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is how we've actually begun
to reduce

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the carbon intensity of our economies.

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Cities are learning from each other.

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How to install zero-emissions buildings,

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how to deploy electric car-sharing systems.

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In major Chinese cities, they're imposing
quotas

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on the number of cars on the streets.

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In many Western cities,

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young people don't even 
want to drive anymore.

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Cities have been part of the problem,

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now they are part of the solution.

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Inequality is the other great challenge


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to achieving sustainable urbanization.

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When I travel through megacities
from end to end,

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it takes hours and days,

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I experience the tragedy
of extreme disparity

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within the same geography.

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And yet, our global stock
of financial assets

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has never been larger,

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approaching 300 trillion dollars.

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That's almost four times
the actual GDP of the world.

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We have taken on such
enormous debts

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since the financial crisis,

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but have we invested them
in inclusive growth?

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No, not yet.

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Only when we build sufficient,
affordable public housing,

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when we invest in robust
transportation networks

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to allow people to connect
to each other

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both physically and digitally,

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that's when our divided cities
and societies

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
will come to feel whole again.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
(Applause)

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And that is why infrastructure
has just been included

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in the United Nations 
Sustainable Development Goals,

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because it enables all the others.

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Our political and economic leaders

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
are learning that connectivity
is not charity,

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it's an opportunity.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
And that's why our financial community
needs to undestand

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
that connectivity is the most
important asset class of the 21st centiry.

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Now, cities can make the world
more sustainable,

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they can make the world
more equitable,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
I also believe that connectivity
between cities

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
can make the world
more peaceful.

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If we look at regions of the world
with dense relations across borders,

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we see more trade, more investment,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and more stability.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
We all know the sotry of
Europe after WWII,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
where industrial integration
kicked off a process

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
that gave rise today's peaceful
European Union.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
And you can see that Russia,
by the way,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
is the least connected 
of major powers

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
in the internaitonla system.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
And that goes a long way
towards explaining

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
tensions today.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Countries that have less stake
in the system

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
also have less to loose
in disturbing it.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
In North America, the lines
that matter most on the map

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are not the US-Canada border
or the US-Mexico border,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
but the dense network of roads
and railways and pipelines

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and electricity grids
and even water canals

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
that are forming an integrated
North American union.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
North America does not need
more walls,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
it needs more connections.

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(Applause)

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But the real promise of connectivity
is in the post-colonial world.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
All of those regions where borders
have historically been

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
the most arbitrary

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and where generations of leaders
have had hostile relations with each other,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
but now a new group of leaders
has come into power

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and is burying the hatchet.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Let's take Southeast Asia,

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where high-speed rail networks
are planned

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
to connect Bangkok to Singapore

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and trade corridors from Vietnam
to Myanmar.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Now this region of 600 million people

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
coordinates its agricultural resources
and its

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and its industrial output.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
It is evolving into what I call
a Pax Asiana,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
a peace among Southeast Asian nations.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
A similar phenomenon
is underway in East Africa,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
where a half dozen countries
are investing

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
in railways and multimodal corridors

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
so that landlocked countries
can get their goods to market.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Now these countries coordinate
their utilities

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and their investment policies.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
They, too, are evolving
into a Pax Africana.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
One region we know that could
especially use this kind of thinking


99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
is the Middle East.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
As Arab states tragically collapse,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
what is left behind but
the ancient cities,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
such as Cairo, Beirut
and Baghdad.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
In fact, the nearly 400 million people
of the Arab world

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
are almost entirely urbanized.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
As societies, as cities,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
they are either water rich or water poor,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
energy rich or energy poor.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
And the only way to correct
these mismatches

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
is not through more wars
and more borders,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
but through more connectivity
of pipelines and water canals.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Sadly, this is not yet the map
of the Middle East.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
But it should be,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
a connected Pax Arabia,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
internally integrated and
productively connected

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
to its neighbors: Europe, Asia
and Africa.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Now it may not seem like
connectivity is what we want right now

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
towards the world's most turbulent region.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
But we know from history 
that more connectivity is the only way

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
to bring out stability in the long run,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
because we know that in region after region,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
connectivity is the new reality.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Cities and countries are learning
to aggregate

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
into more peaceful and prosperous wholes.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
But the real test is going to be Asia.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Can connectivity overcome
the patterns of rivarly

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
among the far east.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
After all, this is where
World War III

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
is supposed to break out.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Since the end of the Cold War,
a quarter-century ago,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
at least 6 major wars have been
predicted for this region.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
But none have broken out.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Take China and Taiwan.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
In the 1990s, this was everyone's 
leading WWIII scenario.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
But since that time,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
the trade and investment volumes
across the straits

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
have become so intense that last November,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
leaders from both sides
held a historic summit

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
to discuss eventual peaceful
reunification.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
And even the election of
a Nationalist party in Taiwan

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
that's pro-independence 
earlier this year

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
does not undermine
this fundamental dynamic.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
China and Japan have an even 
longer history of rivalry

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and have been deploying their 
air forces and navies

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
to show their strength
in island disputes.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
But in recent years, Japan
has been making

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
its largest foreign investments
in China.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Japanese cars are selling
in record numbers there.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
And guess where the largest number
of foreigners

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
residing in Japan today
comes from?

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
You guessed it: China.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
China and India have fought
a major war

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and have three outstanding
border disputes,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
but today India is the second largest
shareholder

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
in the Asia Infrastructure
Investment Bank.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Their building a trade corridor
stretching from Northeast India

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
through Myanmar and Bangladesh
to Southern China.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Their trade volume has grown
from 20 billion dollars a decade ago

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
to 80 billion dollars today.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Nuclear-armed Indian and Pakistan
have fought three wars