WEBVTT

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I want you to reimagine
how life is organized on earth.

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Think of the planet
like a human body that we inhabit.

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The skeleton is the transportation system
of roads and railways,

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bridges and tunnels, air and seaports

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that enable our mobility
across the continents.

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The vascular system that powers the body

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are the oil and gas pipelines
and electricity grids.

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that distribute energy.

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And the nervous system of communications

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is the Internet cables,
satellites, cellular networks

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and data centers that allow
us to share information.

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This ever-expanding infrastructural matrix

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already consists of 64 million
kilometers of roads,

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four million kilometers of railways,

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two million kilometers of pipelines

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and one million kilometers
of Internet cables.

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What about international borders?

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We have less than
500,000 kilometers of borders.

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Let's build a better map of the world.

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And we can start by overcoming
some ancient mythology.

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There's a saying with which
all students of history are familiar:

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"Geography is destiny."

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Sounds so grave, doesn't it?

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It's such a fatalistic adage.

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It tells us that landlocked countries
are condemned to be poor,

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that small countries
cannot escape their larger neighbors,

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that vast distances are insurmountable.

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But every journey I take around the world,

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I see an even greater force
sweeping the planet:

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connectivity.

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The global connectivity revolution,
in all of its forms --

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transportation, energy
and communications --

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has enabled such a quantum leap
in the mobility of people,

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of goods, of resources, of knowledge,

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such that we can no longer even think
of geography as distinct from it.

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In fact, I view the two forces
as fusing together

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into what I call "connectography."

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Connectography represents a quantum leap

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in the mobility of people,
resources and ideas,

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but it is an evolution,

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an evolution of the world
from political geography,

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which is how we legally divide the world,

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to functional geography,

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which is how we actually use the world,

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from nations and borders,
to infrastructure and supply chains.

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Our global system is evolving

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from the vertically integrated
empires of the 19th century,

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through the horizontally interdependent
nations of the 20th century,

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into a global network civilization
in the 21st century.

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Connectivity, not sovereignty,

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has become the organizing principle
of the human species.

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(Applause)

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We are becoming
this global network civilization

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because we are literally building it.

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All of the world's defense budgets
and military spending taken together

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total just under
two trillion dollars per year.

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Meanwhile, our global
infrastructure spending

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is projected to rise
to nine trillion dollars per year

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within the coming decade.

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And, well, it should.

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We have been living
off an infrastructure stock

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meant for a world population
of three billion,

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as our population has crossed
seven billion to eight billion

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and eventually nine billion and more.

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As a rule of thumb, we should spend
about one trillion dollars

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on the basic infrastructure needs
of every billion people in the world.

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Not surprisingly, Asia is in the lead.

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In 2015, China announced the creation

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of the Asian Infrastructure
Investment Bank,

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which together with a network
of other organizations

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aims to construct a network
of iron and silk roads,

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stretching from Shanghai to Lisbon.

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And as all of this topographical
engineering unfolds,

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we will likely spend more
on infrastructure in the next 40 years,

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we will build more infrastructure
in the next 40 years,

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than we have in the past 4,000 years.

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Now let's stop and think
about it for a minute.

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Spending so much more on building
the foundations of global society

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rather than on the tools to destroy it

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can have profound consequences.

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Connectivity is how
we optimize the distribution

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of people and resources around the world.

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It is how mankind comes to be more
than just the sum of its parts.

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I believe that is what is happening.

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Connectivity has a twin megatrend
in the 21st century:

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planetary urbanization.

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Cities are the infrastructures
that most define us.

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By 2030, more than two thirds
of the world's population

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will live in cities.

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And these are not
mere little dots on the map,

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but they are vast archipelagos
stretching hundreds of kilometers.

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Here we are in Vancouver,

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at the head of the Cascadia Corridor

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that stretches south
across the US border to Seattle.

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The technology powerhouse
of Silicon Valley

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begins north of San Francisco
down to San Jose

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and across the bay to Oakland.

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The sprawl of Los Angeles
now passes San Diego

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across the Mexican border to Tijuana.

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San Diego and Tijuana
now share an airport terminal

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where you can exit into either country.

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Eventually, a high-speed rail network
may connect the entire Pacific spine.

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America's northeastern megalopolis
begins in Boston through New York

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and Philadelphia to Washington.

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It contains more than 50 million people

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and also has plans
for a high-speed rail network.

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But Asia is where we really see
the megacities coming together.

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This continuous strip of light
from Tokyo through Nagoya to Osaka

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contains more than 80 million people

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and most of Japan's economy.

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It is the world's largest megacity.

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For now.

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But in China, megacity clusters
are coming together

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with populations
reaching 100 million people.

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The Bohai Rim around Beijing,

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The Yangtze River Delta around Shanghai

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and the Pearl River Delta,

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stretching from Hong Kong
north to Guangzhou.

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And in the middle,

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the Chongqing-Chengdu megacity cluster,

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whose geographic footprint
is almost the same size

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as the country of Austria.

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And any number of these megacity clusters

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has a GDP approaching
two trillion dollars --

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that's almost the same
as all of India today.

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So imagine if our global diplomatic
institutions, such as the G20,

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were to base their membership
on economic size

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rather than national representation.

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Some Chinese megacities
may be in and have a seat at the table,

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while entire countries,
like Argentina or Indonesia would be out.

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Moving to India, whose population
will soon exceed that of China,

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it too has a number of megacity clusters,

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such as the Delhi Capital Region

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and Mumbai.

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In the Middle East,

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Greater Tehran is absorbing
one third of Iran's population.

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Most of Egypt's 80 million people

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live in the corridor
between Cairo and Alexandria.

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And in the gulf, a necklace
of city-states is forming,

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from Bahrain and Qatar,

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through the United Arab Emirates
to Muscat in Oman.

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And then there's Lagos,

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Africa's largest city
and Nigeria's commercial hub.

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It has plans for a rail network

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that will make it the anchor
of a vast Atlantic coastal corridor,

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stretching across Benin, Togo and Ghana,

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to Abidjan, the capital
of the Ivory Coast.

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But these countries are suburbs of Lagos.

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In a megacity world,

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countries can be suburbs of cities.

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By 2030, we will have as many
as 50 such megacity clusters in the world.

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So which map tells you more?

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Our traditional map
of 200 discrete nations

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that hang on most of our walls,

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or this map of the 50 megacity clusters?

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And yet, even this is incomplete

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because you cannot understand
any individual megacity

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without understanding
its connections to the others.

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People move to cities to be connected,

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and connectivity
is why these cities thrive.

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Any number of them,
such as Sao Paulo or Istanbul or Moscow,

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has a GDP approaching or exceeding
one third of one half

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of their entire national GDP.

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But equally importantly,

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you cannot calculate
any of their individual value

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without understanding
the role of the flows of people,

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of finance, of technology

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that enable them to thrive.

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Take the Gauteng province of South Africa,

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which contains Johannesburg
and the capital Pretoria.

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It too represents just over
a third of South Africa's GDP.

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But equally importantly,
it is home to the offices

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of almost every single
multinational corporation

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that invests directly into South Africa

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and indeed, into the entire
African continent.

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Cities want to be part
of global value chains.

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They want to be part
of this global division of labor.

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That is how cities think.

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I've never met a mayor who said to me,

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"I want my city to be cut off."

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They know that their cities belong as much

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to the global network civilization
as to their home countries.

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Now, for many people,
urbanization causes great dismay.

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They think cities are wrecking the planet.

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But right now,

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there are more than 200
intercity learning networks thriving.

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That is as many as the number
of intergovernmental organizations

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that we have.

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And all of these intercity networks
are devoted to one purpose,

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mankind's number one priority
in the 21st century:

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sustainable urbanization.

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Is it working?

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Let's take climate change.

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We know that summit after summit
in New York and Paris

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is not going to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions.

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But what we can see
is that transferring technology

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and knowledge and policies between cities

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is how we've actually begun to reduce
the carbon intensity of our economies.

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Cities are learning from each other.

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How to install zero-emissions buildings,

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how to deploy electric
car-sharing systems.

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In major Chinese cities,

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they're imposing quotas
on the number of cars on the streets.

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In many Western cities,

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young people don't even
want to drive anymore.

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Cities have been part of the problem,

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now they are part of the solution.

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Inequality is the other great challenge
to achieving sustainable urbanization.

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When I travel through megacities
from end to end --

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it takes hours and days --

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I experience the tragedy
of extreme disparity

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within the same geography.

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And yet, our global stock
of financial assets

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has never been larger,

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approaching 300 trillion dollars.

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That's almost four times
the actual GDP of the world.

NOTE Paragraph

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We have taken on such enormous debts
since the financial crisis,

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but have we invested them
in inclusive growth?

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No, not yet.

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Only when we build sufficient,
affordable public housing,

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when we invest in robust
transportation networks

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to allow people to connect to each other
both physically and digitally,

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that's when our divided
cities and societies

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will come to feel whole again.

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(Applause)

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And that is why infrastructure
has just been included

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in the United Nations
Sustainable Development Goals,

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because it enables all the others.

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Our political and economic leaders

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are learning that connectivity
is not charity,

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it's opportunity.

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And that's why our financial community
needs to understand

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that connectivity is the most
important asset class of the 21st century.

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Now, cities can make the world
more sustainable,

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they can make the world more equitable,

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I also believe that
connectivity between cities

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can make the world more peaceful.

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If we look at regions of the world
with dense relations across borders,

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we see more trade, more investment

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and more stability.

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We all know the story
of Europe after World War II,

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where industrial integration
kicked off a process

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that gave rise to today's
peaceful European Union.

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And you can see that Russia, by the way,

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is the least connected of major powers
in the international system.

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And that goes a long way
towards explaining the tensions today.

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Countries that have
less stake in the system

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also have less to lose in disturbing it.

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In North America, the lines
that matter most on the map

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are not the US-Canada border
or the US-Mexico border,

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but the dense network of roads
and railways and pipelines

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and electricity grids
and even water canals

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that are forming an integrated
North American union.

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North America does not need more walls,
it needs more connections.

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(Applause)

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But the real promise of connectivity
is in the postcolonial world.

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All of those regions where borders
have historically been the most arbitrary

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and where generations of leaders

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have had hostile relations
with each other.

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But now a new group of leaders
has come into power

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and is burying the hatchet.

NOTE Paragraph

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Let's take Southeast Asia,
where high-speed rail networks

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are planned to connect
Bangkok to Singapore

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and trade corridors
from Vietnam to Myanmar.

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Now this region of 600 million people
coordinates its agricultural resources

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and its industrial output.

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It is evolving
into what I call a Pax Asiana,

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a peace among Southeast Asian nations.

NOTE Paragraph

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A similar phenomenon
is underway in East Africa,

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where a half dozen countries

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are investing in railways
and multimodal corridors

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so that landlocked countries
can get their goods to market.

00:14:49.080 --> 00:14:51.656
Now these countries
coordinate their utilities

00:14:51.680 --> 00:14:53.776
and their investment policies.

00:14:53.800 --> 00:14:57.600
They, too, are evolving
into a Pax Africana.

NOTE Paragraph

00:14:59.200 --> 00:15:02.096
One region we know could
especially use this kind of thinking

00:15:02.120 --> 00:15:03.400
is the Middle East.

00:15:04.000 --> 00:15:06.456
As Arab states tragically collapse,

00:15:06.480 --> 00:15:09.216
what is left behind
but the ancient cities,

00:15:09.240 --> 00:15:11.720
such as Cairo, Beirut and Baghdad?

00:15:12.400 --> 00:15:17.136
In fact, the nearly
400 million people of the Arab world

00:15:17.160 --> 00:15:19.256
are almost entirely urbanized.

00:15:19.280 --> 00:15:21.176
As societies, as cities,

00:15:21.200 --> 00:15:23.456
they are either water rich or water poor,

00:15:23.480 --> 00:15:25.240
energy rich or energy poor.

00:15:26.040 --> 00:15:28.936
And the only way
to correct these mismatches

00:15:28.960 --> 00:15:31.576
is not through more wars and more borders,

00:15:31.600 --> 00:15:35.440
but through more connectivity
of pipelines and water canals.

00:15:36.040 --> 00:15:39.976
Sadly, this is not yet
the map of the Middle East.

00:15:40.000 --> 00:15:41.200
But it should be,

00:15:42.760 --> 00:15:45.800
a connected Pax Arabia,

00:15:46.640 --> 00:15:48.336
internally integrated

00:15:48.360 --> 00:15:52.656
and productively connected
to its neighbors: Europe, Asia and Africa.

NOTE Paragraph

00:15:52.680 --> 00:15:55.776
Now, it may not seem like connectivity
is what we want right now

00:15:55.800 --> 00:15:57.840
towards the world's most turbulent region.

00:15:58.600 --> 00:16:02.216
But we know from history
that more connectivity is the only way

00:16:02.240 --> 00:16:04.736
to bring about stability in the long run.

00:16:04.760 --> 00:16:07.456
Because we know
that in region after region,

00:16:07.480 --> 00:16:10.416
connectivity is the new reality.

00:16:10.440 --> 00:16:13.576
Cities and countries
are learning to aggregate

00:16:13.600 --> 00:16:16.080
into more peaceful and prosperous wholes.

NOTE Paragraph

00:16:17.760 --> 00:16:20.080
But the real test is going to be Asia.

00:16:21.040 --> 00:16:23.976
Can connectivity overcome
the patterns of rivalry

00:16:24.000 --> 00:16:26.576
among the great powers of the Far East?

00:16:26.600 --> 00:16:30.960
After all, this is where World War III
is supposed to break out.

00:16:31.920 --> 00:16:35.056
Since the end of the Cold War,
a quarter century ago,

00:16:35.080 --> 00:16:38.456
at least six major wars
have been predicted for this region.

00:16:38.480 --> 00:16:40.080
But none have broken out.

NOTE Paragraph

00:16:41.160 --> 00:16:42.720
Take China and Taiwan.

00:16:43.560 --> 00:16:48.176
In the 1990s, this was everyone's
leading World War III scenario.

00:16:48.200 --> 00:16:49.696
But since that time,

00:16:49.720 --> 00:16:54.216
the trade and investment volumes
across the straits have become so intense

00:16:54.240 --> 00:16:55.456
that last November,

00:16:55.480 --> 00:16:58.336
leaders from both sides
held a historic summit

00:16:58.360 --> 00:17:01.200
to discuss eventual
peaceful reunification.

00:17:01.960 --> 00:17:04.776
And even the election
of a nationalist party in Taiwan

00:17:04.800 --> 00:17:07.576
that's pro-independence earlier this year

00:17:07.599 --> 00:17:10.079
does not undermine
this fundamental dynamic.

NOTE Paragraph

00:17:11.359 --> 00:17:14.256
China and Japan have
an even longer history of rivalry

00:17:14.280 --> 00:17:16.695
and have been deploying
their air forces and navies

00:17:16.720 --> 00:17:18.880
to show their strength in island disputes.

00:17:19.520 --> 00:17:20.736
But in recent years,

00:17:20.760 --> 00:17:24.896
Japan has been making
its largest foreign investments in China.

00:17:24.920 --> 00:17:27.640
Japanese cars are selling
in record numbers there.

00:17:28.440 --> 00:17:31.376
And guess where
the largest number of foreigners

00:17:31.400 --> 00:17:33.520
residing in Japan today comes from?

00:17:34.120 --> 00:17:35.920
You guessed it: China.

NOTE Paragraph

00:17:37.520 --> 00:17:39.416
China and India have fought a major war

00:17:39.440 --> 00:17:41.496
and have three outstanding
border disputes,

00:17:41.520 --> 00:17:43.976
but today India is the second
largest shareholder

00:17:44.000 --> 00:17:46.416
in the Asian Infrastructure
Investment Bank.

00:17:46.440 --> 00:17:49.696
They're building a trade corridor
stretching from Northeast India

00:17:49.720 --> 00:17:53.640
through Myanmar and Bangladesh
to Southern China.

00:17:54.320 --> 00:17:58.176
Their trade volume has grown
from 20 billion dollars a decade ago

00:17:58.200 --> 00:17:59.800
to 80 billion dollars today.

NOTE Paragraph

00:18:00.600 --> 00:18:03.616
Nuclear-armed India and Pakistan
have fought three wars

00:18:03.640 --> 00:18:05.856
and continue to dispute Kashmir,

00:18:05.880 --> 00:18:09.416
but they're also negotiating
a most-favored-nation trade agreement

00:18:09.440 --> 00:18:11.176
and want to complete a pipeline

00:18:11.200 --> 00:18:15.176
stretching from Iran
through Pakistan to India.

NOTE Paragraph

00:18:15.200 --> 00:18:16.760
And let's talk about Iran.

00:18:17.880 --> 00:18:21.080
Wasn't it just two years ago
that war with Iran seemed inevitable?

00:18:21.760 --> 00:18:26.480
Then why is every single major power
rushing to do business there today?

NOTE Paragraph

00:18:28.560 --> 00:18:29.816
Ladies and gentlemen,

00:18:29.840 --> 00:18:33.840
I cannot guarantee
that World War III will not break out.

00:18:34.640 --> 00:18:37.640
But we can definitely see
why it hasn't happened yet.

00:18:38.680 --> 00:18:42.376
Even though Asia is home
to the world's fastest growing militaries,

00:18:42.400 --> 00:18:45.976
these same countries
are also investing billions of dollars

00:18:46.000 --> 00:18:48.936
in each other's infrastructure
and supply chains.

00:18:48.960 --> 00:18:52.776
They are more interested
in each other's functional geography

00:18:52.800 --> 00:18:55.256
than in their political geography.

00:18:55.280 --> 00:19:00.336
And that is why their leaders think twice,
step back from the brink,

00:19:00.360 --> 00:19:04.920
and decide to focus on economic ties
over territorial tensions.

NOTE Paragraph

00:19:06.440 --> 00:19:09.040
So often it seems
like the world is falling apart,

00:19:09.760 --> 00:19:11.696
but building more connectivity

00:19:11.720 --> 00:19:14.840
is how we put Humpty Dumpty
back together again,

00:19:15.480 --> 00:19:17.240
much better than before.

00:19:17.960 --> 00:19:19.216
And by wrapping the world

00:19:19.240 --> 00:19:22.696
in such seamless physical
and digital connectivity,

00:19:22.720 --> 00:19:24.896
we evolve towards a world

00:19:24.920 --> 00:19:28.440
in which people can rise
above their geographic constraints.

00:19:28.920 --> 00:19:32.096
We are the cells and vessels

00:19:32.120 --> 00:19:35.336
pulsing through these global
connectivity networks.

NOTE Paragraph

00:19:35.360 --> 00:19:39.016
Everyday, hundreds of millions
of people go online

00:19:39.040 --> 00:19:41.656
and work with people they've never met.

00:19:41.680 --> 00:19:45.176
More than one billion people
cross borders every year,

00:19:45.200 --> 00:19:49.120
and that's expected to rise
to three billion in the coming decade.

NOTE Paragraph

00:19:50.200 --> 00:19:52.696
We don't just build connectivity,

00:19:52.720 --> 00:19:54.040
we embody it.

00:19:54.960 --> 00:19:58.296
We are the global network civilization,

00:19:58.320 --> 00:20:00.200
and this is our map.

00:20:01.240 --> 00:20:05.640
A map of the world in which
geography is no longer destiny.

00:20:06.560 --> 00:20:10.600
Instead, the future
has a new and more hopeful motto:

00:20:11.400 --> 00:20:13.360
connectivity is destiny.

NOTE Paragraph

00:20:14.040 --> 00:20:15.256
Thank you.

NOTE Paragraph

00:20:15.280 --> 00:20:21.509
(Applause)