WEBVTT

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I want you to reimagine
how life is organized on earth.

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Think of the planet like
a human body that we inhabit.

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The skeleton is the transportation system
of roads and railways,

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bridges and tunnels,
air and seaports

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that enable our mobility
across the continents.

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The vascular system
that powers the body,

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or oil and gas pipelines
and electricity grids.

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that distribute energy.

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And the nervous system
of communications

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is the internet cables,
satellites, cellular networks

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and data centers that allow
us to share information.

NOTE Paragraph

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This ever-expanding infrastructural matrix


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already consists of 64 million
kilometers of roads,

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4 million kilometers of railways,

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2 million kilometers of pipelines,

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and one million kilometers
of internet cables.

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What about international borders?

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We have less than
500,000 kilometers of borders.

NOTE Paragraph

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Let's build a better map
of the world.

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And we can start by overcoming
some ancient mythology.

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There's a saying with which
all students of history are familiar:

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"Geography is destiny."

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Sounds so grave, doesn't it?

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It's such a fatalistic adage.

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It tells us that landlocked countries
are condemned to be poor,

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that small countries cannot escape
their larger neighbors,

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that vast distances are insurmountable.

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But every journey I take 
around the world,

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I see an even greater force
sweeping the planet:

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connectivity.

NOTE Paragraph

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The global connectivity revolution,
in all of its forms --

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transportation, energy
and communications--

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has enabled such a quantum leap
in the mobility of people,

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of goods, of resources,
of knowledge,

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such that we can no longer think
of geography as distinct from it.

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In fact, I view the two forces
as fusing together

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into what I call connectography.

NOTE Paragraph

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Connectography represents
a quantum leap

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in the mobility of people, resources
and ideas,

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but it is an evolution,

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an evolution of the world from 
political geography,

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which is how we legally divide
the world,

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to functional geography,

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which is how we actually
use the world,

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from nations and borders,
to infrastructure and supply chains.

NOTE Paragraph

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Our global system is evolving

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from the vertically integrated
empires of the 19th century,

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through the horizontally,
interdependent nations

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of the 20th century,

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into a global network civilization
in the 21st century.

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Connectivity, not sovereignty, 
has become

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the organizing principle
of the human species.

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(Applause)

NOTE Paragraph

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We are becoming this 
global network civilization

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because we are literally building it.

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All of the world's defense budgets
and military spending

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taken together total just under
2 trillion dollars per year.

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Meanwhile, our global infrastructure
spending is projected to rise

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to 9 trillion dollars per year
within the coming decade.

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And, well, it should.

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We have been living off
an infrastructure stock

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meant for a world population
of 3 billion,

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as our population has crossed
7 billion to 8 billion

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and eventually 9 billion and more.

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As a rule of thumb, we should spend
about 1 trillion dollars

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on the basic infrastructure needs
of every billion people in the world.

NOTE Paragraph

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Not surprisingly, Asia is in the lead.

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In 2015, China announced the creation

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of the Asia Infrastructure 
and Investment Bank,

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which together with a network
of other organizations,

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aims to construct a network
of iron and silk roads,

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stretching from Shanghai to Lisbon.

NOTE Paragraph

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And as all of this topographical
engineering unfolds,

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we will likely spend more 
on infrastrucutre

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in the next 40 years,


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we will build more infrastructure
in the next 40 years,

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than we have in the last 4,000 years.

NOTE Paragraph

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Now let's stop and think about it
for a minute.

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Spending so much more


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on building the foundations
of global society

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rather than on the tools
to destroy it

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can have profound consequences.

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Connectivity is how we optimize
the distribution

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of people and resources
around the world.

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It is how mankind comes to be more
than just the sum of its parts.

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I believe that is what is happening.

NOTE Paragraph

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Connectivity has a twin megatrend
in the the 21st century:

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planetary urbanization.

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Cities are the infrastructures
that most define us.

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By 2030, more than two thirds
of the world's population

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will live in cities.

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And these are not mere 
little dots on the map,

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but they are vast archepelagos
stretching hundreds of kilomters.

NOTE Paragraph

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Here we are in Vancouver,

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at the head of the Cascadia Corridor


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that stretches south across 
the US border to Seattle.

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The technology powerhouse 
of SIlicon Valley

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begins north of San Francisco
down to San Jose

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and across the bay to Oakland.

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The sprawl of Los Angeles
now passes San Diego

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across the Mexican border
to Tijuana.

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San Diego and Tijuana
now share an airport terminal

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where you can exit into either country.

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Eventually, a high-speed rail network
may connect the entire Pacific spine.

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America's northeastern megalopolis
begins in Boston through New York

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and Philadelphia to Washington.

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It contains more than 50 million people

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and also has plans for a high-speed
rail network.

NOTE Paragraph

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But Asia is where we really see
the megacities coming together.

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This continous strip of light
from Tokyo through Negoya

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to Osaka contains 
more than 80 million people,

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and most of Japan's economy.

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It is the world's largest megacity.

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For now.

NOTE Paragraph

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But in China, megacity clusters
are coming together

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with populations reaching
100 million people.

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The Bohai Rim around Beijing,

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The Yangtze River Delta
around Shanghai

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and the Pearl River Delta,

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stretching from Hong Kong
to ?

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And in the middle,

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the ? megacity,

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whose geographic footprint
is almost the same size

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as the country of Austria.

NOTE Paragraph

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And any number of these
megacity clusters

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has a GDP approaching
2 trillion dollars,

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that's almost the same
of all of India today.

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So imagine if our global diplomatic
institutions, such as the G20

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were to base their membership
of economic size

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rather than national representation.

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Some Chinese megacities may be in
and have a seat at the table,

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while entire countries,
like Argentina and Indonesia would be out.

NOTE Paragraph

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Moving to India, whose population
will soon exceed that of China,

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it too has a number of megacity clusters,

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such as the Delhi capital region
and Mumbai.

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In the Middle East, greater Tehran
is absorbing

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one third of Iran's population.

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Most of Egypt's 80 million people

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live in the corridor between
Cairo and Alexandria.

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And in the gulf, a necklace
of city-states is forming,

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from Bahrain and Qatar,

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through the United Arab Emirates
to Muscat in Oman.

NOTE Paragraph

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And then there's Lagos,

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Africa's largest city
and Nigeria's commerical hub.

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It has plans for a rail network
that will make it the anchor

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of a vast Atlantic coastal corridor,

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stretching across Benin,
Togo and Ghana,

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to Abidjan, the capital
of the Ivory Coast.

NOTE Paragraph

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But these countries
are suburbs of Lagos.

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In the megacity world,

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countries can be suburbs of cities.

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By 2030, we will have as many 
as 50 such megacity clusters

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in the world.

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So which map tells you more?

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Our traditional map 
of 200 discrete nations

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that hang on most of our walls,

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or this map of the 50 megacity clusters?

NOTE Paragraph

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And yet, even this is incomplete

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because you cannot understand
any individual megacity

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without understanding its connections
to the others.

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People move to cities to be connected,

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and connectivity is 
why these cities thrive.

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Any number of them such as Sao Paulo
or Istanbul or Moscow

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has a GDP approaching or exceeding
one third of one half

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of their entire national GDP.

NOTE Paragraph

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But equally importantly,

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you cannot calculate any of their
individual value

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without understanding the role
of the flows of people,

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of finance, of technology

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that enable them to thrive.

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Take the Gauteng province
of South Africa,

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which contains Johannesburg
and the capital Pretoria.

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It too represents just over
a third of South Africa's GDP.

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Equally importantly, it is home
to the offices

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of almost every single 
multinational corporation

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that invests directly into South Africa

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and indeed, into the entire
African continent.

NOTE Paragraph

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Cities want to be part
of global value chains.

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They want to be part 
of this global division of labor.

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That is how cities think.

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I've never met a mayor
who said to me,

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"I want my city to be cut off."

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They know that their cities
belong as much

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to the global network civilization
as to their home countries.

NOTE Paragraph

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Now for many people, urbanization
causes great dismay.

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They think cities are wrecking the planet.

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But right now, there 
are more than

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200 intercity learning networks thriving.

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That is as many as the
intergovernmental organizations

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that we have.

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And all of these intercity networks
are devoted to one purpose,

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mankind's number one priority
in the 21st century:

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sustainable urbanization.

NOTE Paragraph

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Is it working?

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Let's take climate change.

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We know that summit after summit
in New York and Paris

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is not going to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions.

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But what we can see is that
transffering technology

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and knowledge and policies
between cities

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is how we've actually begun
to reduce

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the carbon intensity of our economies.

NOTE Paragraph

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Cities are learning from each other.

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How to install zero-emissions buildings,

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how to deploy electric 
car-sharing systems.

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In major Chinese cities, they're 
imposing quotas

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on the number of cars on the streets.

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In many Western cities,

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young people don't even 
want to drive anymore.

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Cities have been part of the problem,

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now they are part of the solution.

NOTE Paragraph

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Inequality is the other great challenge


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to achieving sustainable urbanization.

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When I travel through megacities
from end to end,

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it takes hours and days,

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I experience the tragedy
of extreme disparity

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within the same geography.

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And yet, our global stock
of financial assets

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has never been larger,

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approaching 300,000 trillion dollars.

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That's almost four times
the actual GDP of the world.

NOTE Paragraph

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We have taken on such
enormous debts

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since the financial crisis,

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but have we invested them
in inclusive growth?

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No, not yet.

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Only when we build sufficient,
affordable public housing,

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when we invest in robust
transportation networks

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to allow people to connect
to each other

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both physically and digitally,

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that's when our divided cities
and societies

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will come to feel whole again.

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(Applause)

NOTE Paragraph

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And that is why infrastructure
has just been included

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in the United Nations 
Sustainable Development Goals,

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because it enables all the others.

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Our political and economic leaders

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are learning that connectivity
is not charity,

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it's opportunity.

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And that's why our financial community
needs to understand

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that connectivity is the most
important asset class of the 21st century.

NOTE Paragraph

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Now, cities can make the world
more sustainable,

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they can make the world
more equitable,

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I also believe that connectivity
between cities

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can make the world
more peaceful.

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If we look at regions of the world
with dense relations across borders,

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we see more trade, more investment,

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and more stability.

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We all know the story of
Europe after WWII,

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where industrial integration
kicked off a process

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that gave rise today's peaceful
European Union.

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And you can see that Russia,
by the way,

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is the least connected 
of major powers

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in the internaitonla system.

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And that goes a long way
towards explaining

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the tensions today.

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Countries that have less stake
in the system

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also have less to loose
in disturbing it.

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In North America, the lines
that matter most on the map

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are not the US-Canada border
or the US-Mexico border,

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but the dense network of roads
and railways and pipelines

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and electricity grids
and even water canals

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that are forming an integrated
North American union.

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North America does not need
more walls,

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it needs more connections.

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(Applause)

NOTE Paragraph

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But the real promise of connectivity
is in the post-colonial world.

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All of those regions where borders
have historically been

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the most arbitrary

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and where generations of leaders


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have had hostile relations
with each other,

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but now a new group of leaders
has come into power

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and is burying the hatchet.

NOTE Paragraph

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Let's take Southeast Asia,

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where high-speed rail networks
are planned

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to connect Bangkok to Singapore

00:14:19.456 --> 00:14:22.219
and trade corridors from Vietnam
to Myanmar.

00:14:22.219 --> 00:14:25.632
Now this region of 600 million people

00:14:25.632 --> 00:14:28.140
coordinates its agricultural resources


00:14:28.140 --> 00:14:29.928
and its industrial output.

00:14:29.928 --> 00:14:34.734
It is evolving into what I call
a Pax Asiana,

00:14:34.734 --> 00:14:38.287
a peace among Southeast Asian nations.

NOTE Paragraph

00:14:38.287 --> 00:14:41.422
A similar phenomenon
is underway in East Africa,

00:14:41.422 --> 00:14:43.581
where a half dozen countries
are investing

00:14:43.581 --> 00:14:46.298
in railways and multimodal corridors

00:14:46.298 --> 00:14:49.453
so that landlocked countries
can get their goods to market.

00:14:49.453 --> 00:14:51.778
Now these countries coordinate
their utilities

00:14:51.778 --> 00:14:54.146
and their investment policies.

00:14:54.146 --> 00:14:58.618
They, too, are evolving
into a Pax Africana.

NOTE Paragraph

00:14:58.618 --> 00:15:02.366
One region we know that could
especially use this kind of thinking

00:15:02.366 --> 00:15:04.424
is the Middle East.

00:15:04.424 --> 00:15:06.731
As Arab states tragically collapse,

00:15:06.731 --> 00:15:09.471
what is left behind but
the ancient cities,

00:15:09.471 --> 00:15:12.583
such as Cairo, Beirut
and Baghdad?

00:15:12.583 --> 00:15:17.529
In fact, the nearly 400 million people
of the Arab world

00:15:17.529 --> 00:15:19.851
are almost entirely urbanized.

00:15:19.851 --> 00:15:21.685
As societies, as cities,

00:15:21.685 --> 00:15:23.775
they are either water rich or water poor,

00:15:23.775 --> 00:15:26.306
energy rich or energy poor.

00:15:26.306 --> 00:15:28.976
And the only way to correct
these mismatches

00:15:28.976 --> 00:15:31.739
is not through more wars
and more borders,

00:15:31.739 --> 00:15:36.337
but through more connectivity
of pipelines and water canals.

00:15:36.337 --> 00:15:40.516
Sadly, this is not yet the map
of the Middle East.

00:15:40.516 --> 00:15:42.467
But it should be,

00:15:42.467 --> 00:15:47.065
a connected Pax Arabia,

00:15:47.065 --> 00:15:49.949
internally integrated and
productively connected

00:15:49.949 --> 00:15:53.088
to its neighbors: Europe, Asia
and Africa.

NOTE Paragraph

00:15:53.088 --> 00:15:55.046
Now it may not seem like
connectivity

00:15:55.046 --> 00:15:58.819
is what we want right now
towards the world's most turbulent region.

00:15:58.819 --> 00:16:02.483
But we know from history 
that more connectivity is the only way

00:16:02.483 --> 00:16:04.908
to bring about stability in the long run,

00:16:04.908 --> 00:16:07.870
because we know that
in region after region,

00:16:07.870 --> 00:16:10.749
connectivity is the new reality.

00:16:10.749 --> 00:16:13.582
Cities and countries are learning
to aggregate

00:16:13.582 --> 00:16:17.576
into more peaceful and prosperous wholes.

NOTE Paragraph

00:16:17.576 --> 00:16:20.827
But the real test is going to be Asia.

00:16:20.827 --> 00:16:23.264
Can connectivity overcome
the patterns of rivarly

00:16:23.264 --> 00:16:26.747
among the Far East?

00:16:26.747 --> 00:16:29.627
After all, this is where
World War III

00:16:29.627 --> 00:16:32.297
is supposed to break out.

00:16:32.297 --> 00:16:35.316
Since the end of the Cold War,
a quarter-century ago,

00:16:35.316 --> 00:16:38.636
at least six major wars have been
predicted for this region.

00:16:38.636 --> 00:16:41.237
But none have broken out.

NOTE Paragraph

00:16:41.237 --> 00:16:43.837
Take China and Taiwan.

00:16:43.837 --> 00:16:48.435
In the 1990s, this was everyone's 
leading WWIII scenario.

00:16:48.435 --> 00:16:50.037
But since that time,

00:16:50.037 --> 00:16:52.638
the trade and investment volumes
across the straits

00:16:52.638 --> 00:16:55.447
have become so intense that last November,

00:16:55.447 --> 00:16:58.582
leaders from both sides
held a historic summit

00:16:58.582 --> 00:17:02.436
to discuss eventual peaceful
reunification.

00:17:02.436 --> 00:17:05.153
And even the election of
a Nationalist party in Taiwan

00:17:05.153 --> 00:17:07.893
that's pro-independence 
earlier this year

00:17:07.893 --> 00:17:11.678
does not undermine
this fundamental dynamic.

NOTE Paragraph

00:17:11.678 --> 00:17:14.361
China and Japan have an even 
longer history of rivalry

00:17:14.361 --> 00:17:17.135
and have been deploying their 
air forces and navies

00:17:17.135 --> 00:17:19.828
to show their strength
in island disputes.

00:17:19.828 --> 00:17:21.941
But in recent years, Japan
has been making

00:17:21.941 --> 00:17:24.868
its largest foreign investments
in China.

00:17:24.868 --> 00:17:27.677
Japanese cars are selling
in record numbers there.

00:17:27.677 --> 00:17:31.717
And guess where the largest number
of foreigners

00:17:31.717 --> 00:17:34.387
residing in Japan today
comes from?

00:17:34.387 --> 00:17:37.754
You guessed it: China.

NOTE Paragraph

00:17:37.754 --> 00:17:39.632
China and India have fought
a major war

00:17:39.632 --> 00:17:41.701
and have three outstanding
border disputes,

00:17:41.701 --> 00:17:44.186
but today India is the
second largest shareholder

00:17:44.186 --> 00:17:46.624
in the Asia Infrastructure
Investment Bank.

00:17:46.624 --> 00:17:49.898
They're building a trade corridor
stretching from Northeast India

00:17:49.898 --> 00:17:54.589
through Myanmar and Bangladesh
to Southern China.

00:17:54.589 --> 00:17:58.420
Their trade volume has grown
from 20 billion dollars a decade ago

00:17:58.420 --> 00:18:00.928
to 80 billion dollars today.

NOTE Paragraph

00:18:00.928 --> 00:18:03.876
Nuclear-armed Indian and Pakistan
have fought three wars

00:18:03.876 --> 00:18:06.431
and continue to dispute Kashmir,

00:18:06.431 --> 00:18:09.542
but they're also negotiating
a Most-Favored Nation trade agreement

00:18:09.542 --> 00:18:11.330
and want to complete
a pipeline

00:18:11.330 --> 00:18:15.672
stretching from Iran 
through Pakistan to India.

NOTE Paragraph

00:18:15.672 --> 00:18:18.250
And let's talk about Iran.

00:18:18.250 --> 00:18:23.822
Wasn't it just two years ago
that war with Iran seemed inevitable?

00:18:23.822 --> 00:18:29.047
Than why is every single major power
rushing to do business there today?

NOTE Paragraph

00:18:29.047 --> 00:18:31.439
Ladies and gentlemen, I cannot
guarentee

00:18:31.439 --> 00:18:35.084
that WWIII will not break out.

00:18:35.084 --> 00:18:38.823
But we can definitely see
why it hasn't happened yet.

00:18:38.823 --> 00:18:40.123
Even though Asia is home


00:18:40.123 --> 00:18:42.747
to the world's fastest growing militaries,

00:18:42.747 --> 00:18:46.299
these same countries are also
investing billions of dollars

00:18:46.299 --> 00:18:49.388
in each other's infrastructure
and supply chains.

00:18:49.388 --> 00:18:53.345
They are more interested
in each other's functional geography

00:18:53.345 --> 00:18:55.963
than in their political geography.

00:18:55.963 --> 00:18:59.084
And that is why their leaders
think twice,

00:18:59.084 --> 00:19:00.998
step back from the brink,

00:19:00.998 --> 00:19:05.506
and decide to focus on economic ties
over territorial tensions.

NOTE Paragraph

00:19:06.686 --> 00:19:10.030
So often it seems like the world
is falling apart,

00:19:10.030 --> 00:19:11.934
but building more connectivity


00:19:11.934 --> 00:19:15.882
is how we put Humpty-Dumpty
back together again,

00:19:15.882 --> 00:19:18.157
much better than before.

00:19:18.157 --> 00:19:19.365
And by wrapping the world


00:19:19.365 --> 00:19:22.824
in such seamless physical
and digital connectivity,

00:19:22.824 --> 00:19:27.074
we evolve towards a world
in which people can rise above

00:19:27.074 --> 00:19:29.372
their geographic contraints.

00:19:29.372 --> 00:19:32.995
We are the cells and vessels
pulsing through

00:19:32.995 --> 00:19:35.572
these global connectivity networks.

NOTE Paragraph

00:19:35.572 --> 00:19:39.171
Everyday, hundreds of millions
of people go online

00:19:39.171 --> 00:19:41.958
and work with people they've never met.

00:19:41.958 --> 00:19:45.441
More than one billion people
cross borders every year,

00:19:45.441 --> 00:19:48.064
and that's expected to rise
to three billion

00:19:48.064 --> 00:19:50.131
in the coming decade.

NOTE Paragraph

00:19:50.131 --> 00:19:53.335
We don't just build connectivity,

00:19:53.335 --> 00:19:55.448
we embody it.

00:19:55.448 --> 00:19:58.838
We are the global network civilization,

00:19:58.838 --> 00:20:01.741
and this is our map.

00:20:01.741 --> 00:20:06.919
A map of the world in which
geography is no longer destiny.

00:20:06.919 --> 00:20:11.609
Instead, the future has a new
and more hopeful motto:

00:20:11.609 --> 00:20:14.326
connectivity is destiny.

NOTE Paragraph

00:20:14.326 --> 00:20:15.732
Thank you.

NOTE Paragraph

00:20:15.732 --> 00:20:18.628
(Applause)