A COVID-19 "exit" strategy to end lockdown and reopen the economy
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0:01 - 0:04Chris Anderson: So our first speaker
gave a TED Talk at TEDGlobal -
0:04 - 0:06I think seven years ago.
-
0:06 - 0:09His name is Professor Uri Alon,
-
0:09 - 0:12at the Weizmann Institute of Science.
-
0:12 - 0:16Now, he and his colleagues there
have come up with a powerful idea -
0:16 - 0:18that addresses this key question:
-
0:18 - 0:22How on earth do we get back to work
-
0:22 - 0:25without creating a second surge
of the infection? -
0:27 - 0:29Uri Alon, welcome to TED.
-
0:30 - 0:34Uri Alon: Thank you.
Nice to be here again. -
0:34 - 0:36CA: It's great to see you again.
-
0:36 - 0:40So, I guess the key to your idea
-
0:40 - 0:44is this obsession with
the reproduction number R, R-naught. -
0:44 - 0:46If that number is less than one,
-
0:46 - 0:50then fewer than one person
is infected by a typical person, -
0:50 - 0:54and eventually, the epidemic fades away.
-
0:54 - 0:56People are worried that
as we come back to work, -
0:56 - 0:59R will shoot up above one again.
-
0:59 - 1:01You have a suggestion
for how we might avoid that. -
1:01 - 1:03What is that suggestion?
-
1:05 - 1:06UA: Exactly.
-
1:06 - 1:08So, we are suggesting a strategy
-
1:08 - 1:13that's based on a weak spot
based on the biology of the virus, -
1:13 - 1:16which is a cycle of work and lockdown.
-
1:16 - 1:21It exploits the vulnerability of the virus
in that, when a person gets infected, -
1:21 - 1:24they're not infectious
for about three days. -
1:24 - 1:27So you don't infect others
for the first three days, -
1:27 - 1:29and after another two days,
on average, you get symptoms. -
1:30 - 1:34So we're proposing a strategy
which is four days of work -
1:34 - 1:36and then 10 days of lockdown,
-
1:36 - 1:39and the next two weeks, again:
four days of work, 10 days of lockdown. -
1:39 - 1:43And that way, if a person
gets infected at work, -
1:43 - 1:46they reach their peak infectiousness
during lockdown, and that way, -
1:46 - 1:49they avoid infecting many others.
-
1:49 - 1:52This restricts the viral transmission.
-
1:53 - 1:55Also, just working four days
out of two weeks -
1:55 - 1:58restricts the amount of time
the virus gets to see many other people, -
1:58 - 2:00and that's a very powerful effect.
-
2:00 - 2:02So everybody works on the same four days,
-
2:02 - 2:04kids go to school on the same four days,
-
2:04 - 2:09with all the measures
of social distancing and masks, etc, -
2:09 - 2:11and then there's a lockdown period.
-
2:12 - 2:15CA: So if you take
the worst-case scenario, -
2:15 - 2:18where you come to work on a Monday morning
at the start of your four days, -
2:19 - 2:22and you're infected on the subway,
say, on the way to work, -
2:22 - 2:26the theory here is that even
by the end of that four days, -
2:26 - 2:29you're not really starting
to infect your coworkers? -
2:30 - 2:31UA: That's correct.
-
2:32 - 2:33So you're infected on the subway,
-
2:33 - 2:36and so for the first three days or so,
you're in your latent period, -
2:36 - 2:38you don't infect your coworkers,
-
2:38 - 2:41you reach your peak
infectiousness at home, -
2:41 - 2:43there will be secondary
infections at home, -
2:43 - 2:47and people with symptoms
can self-quarantine, -
2:47 - 2:50and over the long run, you have
a reproduction number less than one, -
2:50 - 2:53so the epidemic,
if you continue these cycles, -
2:53 - 2:55will go away.
-
2:57 - 3:01CA: I mean, is it frustrating
-
3:01 - 3:03at the thought that people
are going to say, -
3:03 - 3:06"Wait -- I don't want
to infect people at home, -
3:06 - 3:08I'd rather infect people
at work than at home." -
3:08 - 3:10What's the response to that?
-
3:10 - 3:11UA: Yes, absolutely.
-
3:11 - 3:13So we have to consider the alternatives.
-
3:13 - 3:16If you open up the economy
and there's a second wave, -
3:16 - 3:19you'll get all those infections anyway
during the lockdown that happens, -
3:19 - 3:22along with the devastating effects
on the economy, etc. -
3:22 - 3:24And so, in the long run,
-
3:25 - 3:26if you do a cyclic strategy like this
-
3:26 - 3:30but with a reproduction
number that's less than one, -
3:30 - 3:34you avoid, at least with these
mathematical models and considerations, -
3:34 - 3:38the much larger number of infections
you'd get if there's a second wave. -
3:39 - 3:44CA: Right. You're serving the needs
of your family by -- sorry, go on. -
3:44 - 3:48UA: Even people who are infected
don't infect everyone at home. -
3:48 - 3:52The attack rates are 10 to 30 percent,
according to several studies. -
3:53 - 3:54CA: Right.
-
3:54 - 3:57But the hope is that you're
serving the needs of your family -
3:57 - 4:00by engaging in a strategy
where very few of your fellow workers -
4:00 - 4:02are going to be infectious anyway,
-
4:02 - 4:04so that's the plan, but um --
-
4:04 - 4:06UA: That's right.
-
4:07 - 4:10CA: Tell me this, though --
because four days out of 14, -
4:10 - 4:12someone's going to say, "Well, great idea,
-
4:12 - 4:15but that implies, like,
a 70 percent loss of productivity -
4:15 - 4:16in the economy,
-
4:16 - 4:18so that can't possibly work."
-
4:18 - 4:20I think you think that
the productivity loss -
4:20 - 4:22need not be anything like that much.
-
4:23 - 4:24UA: That's right,
-
4:24 - 4:27and of course, most people
don't work weekends, -
4:27 - 4:29so it's four days out of
the 10 work days in the two weeks, -
4:29 - 4:33and once you have
a predictable schedule -
4:33 - 4:34of four days at work,
-
4:34 - 4:35you can work longer hours,
-
4:35 - 4:38you can design shifts
and get higher productivity -
4:38 - 4:40by prioritizing in those four days
-
4:40 - 4:42much more than 40 percent of the workdays.
-
4:44 - 4:46CA: Yes, so talk through
how that could work. -
4:46 - 4:50I mean, let's imagine,
first of all, manufacturing, -
4:50 - 4:52which is currently shut down.
-
4:52 - 4:57Is the implication here
that a manufacturer could set up -
4:57 - 5:00two, possibly even three,
shifts of four days, -
5:00 - 5:05maybe 35 hours or something of work
over those four days -
5:05 - 5:09and still get a lot of productivity,
-
5:09 - 5:13basically, having the lines
almost running continuously that way? -
5:13 - 5:15UA: Exactly.
-
5:15 - 5:18So this is a staggered
version of this idea, -
5:18 - 5:22where you take the population,
divide it into two groups or three groups. -
5:22 - 5:26Let's say one group works four days
and then 10 days of lockdown. -
5:26 - 5:29Then the other group kicks in.
-
5:29 - 5:32This idea was proposed by colleagues
at Bar-Ilan University. -
5:32 - 5:36Then you get an added benefit
that during workdays there's less density. -
5:36 - 5:38If there's two groups,
-
5:38 - 5:40there's half the density
and less transmission. -
5:40 - 5:45And you can keep production lines
working almost continuously like that -
5:45 - 5:46using this staggered idea.
-
5:49 - 5:54CA: And applying it to thinking
about offices coming back -- -
5:54 - 5:57I mean, it seems to me that,
as we've already seen, -
5:57 - 6:00there's a lot of productivity
that can happen when you're at home, -
6:00 - 6:04so you could picture on this idea
of people doing one set of things -
6:04 - 6:07during the four days when they're,
say, back at the office, -
6:07 - 6:11doing the exposure to each other,
sparking off each other, -
6:11 - 6:15the discussions, the brainstorming,
all that good stuff, -
6:15 - 6:18while at home, they're then
doing all the things -
6:18 - 6:20that we've been doing
the last few weeks, -
6:20 - 6:22kind of working solo.
-
6:22 - 6:24How much have you thought about how that,
-
6:24 - 6:29whether it's possible, effectively,
to divide work into different types -
6:29 - 6:31and actually use a strategy like this
-
6:31 - 6:34to maintain almost full
or even better productivity? -
6:35 - 6:38UA: I agree -- for many sectors,
people work at home very effectively, -
6:38 - 6:40and we've heard from several industries
-
6:40 - 6:43that productivity actually
went up during lockdown -
6:43 - 6:45and people working at home.
-
6:45 - 6:47So if you have a schedule,
a [cyclic exit strategy] -
6:47 - 6:49you can restrict the amount,
-
6:49 - 6:52or you can plan the work
where you need to be together -
6:52 - 6:54in a very effective way
-
6:54 - 6:57with avoiding a lot of time lost,
-
6:57 - 6:59if the person's work
can be more effective at home -
6:59 - 7:02and more effective at work
and get high productivity. -
7:02 - 7:05I should say that some sectors
really need to adjust, -
7:05 - 7:06like hotels, tourism, dining.
-
7:06 - 7:10In several industries, this will require
more thought and adjusting. -
7:10 - 7:13But other industries are almost
built for ideas like this. -
7:13 - 7:17Maybe it's even something
you can consider after the epidemic, -
7:17 - 7:20because productivity can be
at least as high. -
7:21 - 7:25CA: I mean, I read this and I started
thinking about our own organization, TED, -
7:25 - 7:30and how, in many ways, you could argue
that could work really well. -
7:30 - 7:31I mean, for one thing,
-
7:31 - 7:34there's this question
about extroverts and introverts. -
7:34 - 7:35Some introverts, if they were honest,
-
7:36 - 7:39might say that this pandemic
has been manna from heaven for them. -
7:39 - 7:42They've found work less stressful.
-
7:42 - 7:44They've been able to focus and so forth.
-
7:45 - 7:49With this sort of four days on,
four days off type strategy, -
7:49 - 7:51perhaps you can imagine a work world
-
7:51 - 7:55that's optimized for both
introverts and extroverts? -
7:56 - 7:58UA: Absolutely.
-
7:58 - 7:59I mean, I feel it also.
-
7:59 - 8:01Me and my partner,
with different personalities, -
8:01 - 8:03we both teach in universities,
-
8:03 - 8:05and teaching through this
-
8:05 - 8:07has [helped me] become
productive in certain ways. -
8:08 - 8:09So I agree completely,
-
8:09 - 8:13and I think harnessing the creativity
of people at workplaces, -
8:13 - 8:17we're only at the beginning
of what these kinds of mixtures can offer. -
8:19 - 8:21CA: But for people who are
on the front line, -
8:21 - 8:27again, if you're delivering
goods and so forth -
8:27 - 8:29and you can't do that virtually,
-
8:29 - 8:30is there any thought about
-
8:30 - 8:34how a four days on
and then isolation strategy, -
8:34 - 8:37how that off time could be used
-
8:37 - 8:39to nonetheless contribute
to that person's work -
8:39 - 8:42through some form of training?
-
8:42 - 8:48Or is it more just that people would work
very intensely during four days, -
8:48 - 8:54and maybe people still aren't quite
earning their full pay in this scenario, -
8:54 - 8:56but it's better than complete lockdown,
-
8:56 - 8:59and it's better than going back to work
and seeing another surge? -
9:01 - 9:02UA: That's right.
-
9:02 - 9:03So on a society level,
-
9:03 - 9:06it's better than opening up
and seeing another surge, -
9:06 - 9:08which would require complete lockdown.
-
9:08 - 9:09For people like hospital shifts,
-
9:09 - 9:13some hospitals adopted
this kind of program -
9:13 - 9:16so we can protect shifts and avoid mixing.
-
9:16 - 9:18It also creates a lot
of simplicity and clarity. -
9:18 - 9:20So you understand when you're working,
-
9:20 - 9:25and you have some confidence because
this is based on scientific modeling -
9:25 - 9:28about the effectiveness of this plan.
-
9:28 - 9:32It's also equitable in the sense
that everybody gets to go to work, -
9:32 - 9:34not only certain sectors,
-
9:34 - 9:36it's transparent, etc.
-
9:36 - 9:38[Cross talk]
-
9:40 - 9:43CA: And this is something
that is best implemented -
9:43 - 9:45by individual companies?
-
9:45 - 9:48Or is it actually much better
implemented a city at a time -
9:48 - 9:50or even a nation at a time?
-
9:52 - 9:54UA: We think it can work [in levels].
-
9:54 - 9:58So at certain companies,
it's very natural to adopt, -
9:58 - 10:00or at hospitals, schools, etc.
-
10:00 - 10:03It can also work at the level
of a town or a region, -
10:03 - 10:07and then we would advise
trying it out for something like a month, -
10:07 - 10:09seeing whether cases rise.
-
10:09 - 10:13In that case, you can dial down
the number of workdays. -
10:13 - 10:16Or, if cases are declining quickly,
you can add workdays -
10:16 - 10:21and therefore adapt to the climate
and the location where a person is. -
10:21 - 10:23So it's quite adaptable.
-
10:24 - 10:27CA: But by aligning work schedules
with schools, for example, -
10:27 - 10:30that suddenly allows parents
to go back to work -
10:30 - 10:34on the days that their kids are at school,
and you'd have to try -- -
10:34 - 10:36UA: Absolutely.
-
10:36 - 10:38CA: I mean, is the best
instantiation of this -
10:38 - 10:41that countries literally divide households
-
10:41 - 10:45into different A and B categories,
or something like that, -
10:45 - 10:48so that that kind
of alignment could happen? -
10:49 - 10:50UA: Exactly.
-
10:50 - 10:54So you can align different
households, Group A and Group B, -
10:54 - 10:56and then the children go to school,
the parents go to work -
10:56 - 10:58in a synchronized way,
-
10:58 - 11:01and the other group,
let's say, the alternating weeks. -
11:01 - 11:04A certain amount of people
need to work all the time. -
11:04 - 11:08Maybe teachers are, like, essential
workers and need to work throughout. -
11:08 - 11:10Just like during lockdown situations,
-
11:10 - 11:12a certain fraction of the population
still works throughout. -
11:13 - 11:16But a region that does this
should be protected, in a sense, -
11:16 - 11:18because it has a replication
number of less than one, -
11:19 - 11:22so imported infections
also can't spread very much. -
11:23 - 11:27CA: And here is the aforementioned
David Biello. David. -
11:27 - 11:29David Biello: Yes. Hello, everybody.
-
11:29 - 11:31Uri, as you can imagine,
there are lot of questions -
11:31 - 11:33from the audience,
-
11:33 - 11:35and we have a first one
-
11:35 - 11:40kind of about those workers
who have been marked as essential. -
11:40 - 11:45Can you comment on how this would impact
the health care professionals and others -
11:45 - 11:51who may not have time
or the flexibility to quarantine -
11:51 - 11:52in the way you suggest.
-
11:53 - 11:54UA: That's great.
-
11:54 - 11:57I want to say that
there's essential workers, -
11:57 - 12:01there's people with low income,
that just can't adhere to lockdown -
12:01 - 12:03because they have to make a living.
-
12:03 - 12:09And studies show that mobility
[among] people in the low-income sectors -
12:09 - 12:10is larger during lockdown.
-
12:10 - 12:14And also, in developing countries,
people just have to go out of the house. -
12:14 - 12:16You can't enforce lockdown.
-
12:16 - 12:21So this four-10 kind of strategy can
actually make lockdown easier to bear -
12:21 - 12:25for people who can still
make a living during those days, -
12:25 - 12:27or at least make their own choices
-
12:27 - 12:30about what fraction to work
and what fraction to stay in lockdown. -
12:30 - 12:33Some countries can't get
R less than one even with lockdown, -
12:33 - 12:37because of this adherence problem,
because of informal sectors, etc. -
12:37 - 12:41We believe that a four-10 cycle
might make it easier to do lockdown -
12:41 - 12:44and maybe get our infection
level less than one. -
12:44 - 12:48That affects billions
of people in the world. -
12:48 - 12:50I hope I answered your question.
-
12:51 - 12:52DB: I think so,
-
12:52 - 12:55and we have another question, I believe,
-
12:55 - 12:58if that can be queued up,
-
12:58 - 13:00which is:
-
13:00 - 13:02Any chance you can do the math
-
13:02 - 13:07and quantify the increased risk
of this four-10 cycle? -
13:09 - 13:12UA: So the increased risk,
we're saying in our scientific paper, -
13:12 - 13:15we did all the sensitivity analyses, etc,
-
13:15 - 13:19and the question is, it's comparing
increased risk comparing to what? -
13:19 - 13:21So, to the economy ...
-
13:21 - 13:23It's possible there will be a second wave.
-
13:23 - 13:26I mean, I hope there won't be,
but it certainly is possible, -
13:26 - 13:31and in that case, it's clear
that a second wave and another lockdown -
13:31 - 13:35will have worse consequences on health
-
13:36 - 13:39than a cycle of four-10.
-
13:39 - 13:44And so it's really a question of
what you're comparing to. -
13:46 - 13:48DB: Sure.
-
13:48 - 13:51Well, thank you so much
for sharing this idea, Uri. -
13:53 - 13:56CA: Indeed.
-
13:56 - 13:57David, stay on.
-
13:57 - 13:58But just before you go:
-
13:58 - 14:03Have any governments
expressed interest in exploring this? -
14:03 - 14:06Do you see people considering
actually implementing this -
14:06 - 14:08as national policy?
-
14:09 - 14:13UA: Yes, we're in touch
with several European countries -
14:13 - 14:17and countries in South America
and Israel, of course. -
14:17 - 14:21Austria has adopted a similar program
for their school system, -
14:22 - 14:27which is five school days every two weeks.
-
14:27 - 14:32And several companies and hospitals, etc.
-
14:32 - 14:37And so we're very interested
to see how this will play out. -
14:38 - 14:41CA: Well, I love the basic start point
-
14:41 - 14:44of starting by looking
at the enemy's weakness. -
14:44 - 14:47And you've got this four-day period
-
14:47 - 14:53where it's not necessarily
that dangerous after an infection, -
14:53 - 14:56if you could figure out
a way to work then. -
14:56 - 15:00I assume that testing would actually
enhance this idea as well a lot, right? -
15:00 - 15:02To test people before they come back --
-
15:02 - 15:04UA: It's not predicated on testing.
-
15:04 - 15:06You don't have to have
testing for this idea, -
15:06 - 15:09so that can apply to regions
without a lot of testing. -
15:09 - 15:12If you do have testing, it could help you
use testing in a more effective way -
15:12 - 15:16by concentrating testing on people
at the end of their 10 lockdown days, -
15:16 - 15:18just as they're about to go to work;
-
15:18 - 15:19that could make
each test more impactful -
15:19 - 15:22in terms of reducing
their reproduction number. -
15:22 - 15:25CA: Indeed, instead of having
to test the whole population -
15:25 - 15:26every three or four days,
-
15:26 - 15:27it's just once every two weeks.
-
15:27 - 15:30That's a much more imaginable goal.
-
15:31 - 15:33UA: Sure.
-
15:33 - 15:34CA: Yeah.
-
15:34 - 15:37Well, Uri Alon, thank you so much
for spending this time.
- Title:
- A COVID-19 "exit" strategy to end lockdown and reopen the economy
- Speaker:
- Uri Alon, Chris Anderson
- Description:
-
How can we return to work without spurring a second surge of coronavirus infection? Biologist Uri Alon shares a thought-provoking strategy: four days at work followed by 10 days of lockdown, a cycle that would exploit a weakness in the virus's biology and potentially cut its reproductive rate to a manageable level. Learn more about this approach -- which has already been adopted by both companies and countries -- and how it could be a key to reopening the economy responsibly. (This virtual conversation, hosted by head of TED Chris Anderson and science curator David Biello, was recorded on May 20, 2020.)
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 15:50
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Camille Martínez edited English subtitles for A COVID-19 "exit" strategy to end lockdown and reopen the economy | ||
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Joseph Geni edited English subtitles for A COVID-19 "exit" strategy to end lockdown and reopen the economy |