What we do (and don't) know about the coronavirus
-
0:01 - 0:02[As of the morning February 27, 2020,
-
0:02 - 0:06there were at least 82,000 confirmed
cases worldwide of the coronavirus -
0:06 - 0:07and 2,810 deaths from it.
-
0:07 - 0:11TED invited Dr. David Heymann to share
the latest findings about the outbreak.] -
0:11 - 0:14[What happens if you get infected
with the coronavirus?] -
0:14 - 0:16This looks like a very mild disease,
like a common cold, -
0:16 - 0:18in the majority of people.
-
0:18 - 0:23There are certain people who get infected
and have very serious illness; -
0:23 - 0:24among them are health workers.
-
0:24 - 0:26It's a very serious infection in them,
-
0:26 - 0:28as they get a higher dose
than normal people, -
0:28 - 0:31and at the same time,
they have no immunity. -
0:31 - 0:35So in the general population,
-
0:35 - 0:39it's likely that the dose of virus
that you receive when you are infected -
0:39 - 0:42is much less than the dose
that a health worker would receive, -
0:42 - 0:45health workers having
more serious infections. -
0:45 - 0:48So your infection
would be less serious, hopefully. -
0:48 - 0:51So that leaves the elderly
and those with comorbidities -
0:51 - 0:54to really be the ones
that we have to make sure -
0:54 - 0:56are taken care of in hospitals.
-
0:56 - 1:00[Who are the people who should be
most concerned about this?] -
1:00 - 1:03Well, the most concerned are people
-
1:03 - 1:06who are, first of all,
in developing countries -
1:06 - 1:09and who don't have access
to good medical care -
1:09 - 1:11and may not have access
at all to a hospital, -
1:11 - 1:14should an epidemic occur in their country.
-
1:14 - 1:16Those people would be at great risk,
-
1:16 - 1:18especially the elderly.
-
1:18 - 1:20Elderly in all populations are at risk,
-
1:20 - 1:23but especially those
who can't get to oxygen. -
1:23 - 1:25In industrialized countries,
-
1:25 - 1:27it's the very elderly
who have comorbidities, -
1:27 - 1:30who have diabetes,
who have other diseases, -
1:30 - 1:31who are at risk.
-
1:31 - 1:34The general population
doesn't appear to be at great risk. -
1:34 - 1:38[What pre-existing medical conditions
put people at higher risk?] -
1:38 - 1:39First of all,
-
1:39 - 1:43pulmonary disease existing
as a comorbidity is also important. -
1:43 - 1:46In general, the elderly
are at greater risk, -
1:46 - 1:48especially those over 70,
-
1:48 - 1:51because their immune systems
are not as effective -
1:51 - 1:52as they might have once been,
-
1:52 - 1:55and they are more
susceptible to infections. -
1:55 - 1:59In addition, in some instances in China,
-
1:59 - 2:02there's been a coinfection with influenza
-
2:02 - 2:03and at the same time,
-
2:03 - 2:06there have been some
bacterial superinfections -
2:06 - 2:08on the pneumonias that are occurring.
-
2:08 - 2:11[Where can we find
up-to-date information?] -
2:11 - 2:13The Center for Disease Control
in Atlanta keeps track -
2:13 - 2:17and has updates on a regular
basis on its website. -
2:17 - 2:20Also, the World Health
Organization in Geneva, -
2:20 - 2:22which is coordinating many
of the activities -
2:22 - 2:23going on internationally,
-
2:24 - 2:26also has a website with daily updates.
-
2:26 - 2:29It's our responsibility
to get that information as individuals, -
2:29 - 2:31so we understand
-
2:31 - 2:34and can make sure that we can
contribute in our own way -
2:34 - 2:36to prevention of major spread.
-
2:36 - 2:39[You led the global response
to the SARS outbreak in 2003. -
2:39 - 2:40How does this outbreak compare?]
-
2:40 - 2:43That's the same problem
with all new infections. -
2:43 - 2:45This is an infection
that's coming to humans -
2:45 - 2:48who have never been exposed
to this virus before. -
2:48 - 2:51They don't have any antibody protection,
-
2:51 - 2:53and it's not clear whether
their immune system -
2:53 - 2:55can handle this virus or not.
-
2:55 - 3:00This is a virus that usually finds itself
in bats or in other animals, -
3:00 - 3:02and all of a sudden, it's in humans.
-
3:02 - 3:05And humans just don't have
experience with this virus. -
3:05 - 3:06But gradually,
-
3:06 - 3:09we are beginning to learn a lot,
as we did with SARS. -
3:09 - 3:13And you know, there are certainly
a larger number of deaths -
3:13 - 3:15than there were with SARS.
-
3:15 - 3:19But when you divide that by a denominator
of persons who are infected, -
3:19 - 3:22there are many, many more persons infected
than there were with SARS. -
3:23 - 3:24The case fatality ratio,
-
3:24 - 3:29that is the ratio of deaths
to the numbers of cases in SARS, -
3:29 - 3:30was about 10 percent.
-
3:30 - 3:33With the current coronavirus, COVID-19,
-
3:33 - 3:37it is two percent or probably less.
-
3:37 - 3:39So it's a much less virulent virus,
-
3:39 - 3:42but it's still a virus
that causes mortality, -
3:42 - 3:45and that's what we don't want
entering human populations. -
3:45 - 3:48[Have we responded adequately
at border crossings, such as airports?] -
3:48 - 3:53It's clearly understood
that airports or any land borders -
3:53 - 3:55cannot prevent a disease from entering.
-
3:55 - 3:58People in the incubation period
can cross that border, -
3:58 - 3:59can enter countries
-
3:59 - 4:02and can then infect others
when they become sick. -
4:02 - 4:08So borders are not a means of preventing
infections from entering a country -
4:08 - 4:10by checking temperatures.
-
4:10 - 4:14Borders are important because
you can provide to people arriving -
4:14 - 4:18from areas that might be at risk
of having had infection, -
4:18 - 4:20provide them with an understanding,
-
4:20 - 4:23either a printed understanding
or a verbal understanding, -
4:23 - 4:26of what the signs and symptoms are
of this infection, -
4:26 - 4:30and what they should do
if they feel that they might be infected. -
4:30 - 4:33[What's the timeline for a vaccine?]
-
4:33 - 4:35Vaccines are under development right now,
-
4:35 - 4:37there's a lot of research going on.
-
4:37 - 4:41That research requires first
that the vaccine be developed, -
4:41 - 4:45then that it be studied for safety
and effectiveness in animals, -
4:45 - 4:49who are challenged with the virus
after they are vaccinated, -
4:49 - 4:51and then it must go into human studies.
-
4:51 - 4:53The animal studies have not yet begun,
-
4:53 - 4:56but will soon begin for certain vaccines.
-
4:56 - 4:58And it's thought
that by the end of the year, -
4:58 - 4:59or early next year,
-
4:59 - 5:02there may be some candidate vaccines
-
5:02 - 5:07that can then be studied for licensing
by regulatory agencies. -
5:07 - 5:11So we're talking about at least a year
until there's vaccine available -
5:11 - 5:13that can be used in many populations.
-
5:13 - 5:17[What questions about the outbreak
are still unanswered?] -
5:17 - 5:19It's clear we know how it transmits,
-
5:19 - 5:22we don't know how easily
it transmits in humans, -
5:22 - 5:26in communities or in unenclosed areas.
-
5:26 - 5:28We know, for example,
-
5:28 - 5:32that in the enclosed area
of a cruise ship, it spread very easily. -
5:32 - 5:33We need to better understand
-
5:34 - 5:37how it will spread once it gets
into more open areas -
5:37 - 5:40where people are exposed
to people who might be sick. -
5:41 - 5:44[What about the global response
could be improved?] -
5:45 - 5:48A major problem in the world today
is that we look at outbreaks -
5:48 - 5:50in developing countries
-
5:50 - 5:52as something that we need to go and stop.
-
5:53 - 5:55So when there's an outbreak of Ebola,
-
5:55 - 5:58we think "How can we go
and stop this outbreak in the country?" -
5:58 - 6:01We don't think about
"How can we help that country -
6:01 - 6:03strengthen its capacity,
-
6:03 - 6:07so that it can detect
and respond to infections?" -
6:07 - 6:09So we haven't invested enough
-
6:09 - 6:13in helping countries develop
their core capacity in public health. -
6:13 - 6:17What we've done is invested
in many mechanisms globally, -
6:17 - 6:20which can provide support
to other countries -
6:20 - 6:22to go and help stop outbreaks.
-
6:22 - 6:25But we want to see a world
where every country -
6:25 - 6:27can do its best to stop its own outbreaks.
-
6:27 - 6:30[Will we see more emerging
disease outbreaks in the future?] -
6:30 - 6:32Today, there are over
seven billion people. -
6:32 - 6:34And when those people come into the world,
-
6:34 - 6:35they demand more food,
-
6:35 - 6:37they demand a whole series of things
-
6:37 - 6:39and they live closer together.
-
6:39 - 6:42In fact, we're an urban world,
where people live in urban areas. -
6:42 - 6:45And at the same time,
we're growing more animals, -
6:45 - 6:50and those animals are contributing
food to humans as well. -
6:50 - 6:51So what we see
-
6:51 - 6:56is that that animal-human interface
is becoming closer and closer together. -
6:56 - 7:00And this intensive agriculture of animals
-
7:00 - 7:02and this intensive increase
in human populations -
7:03 - 7:05living together on the same planet
-
7:05 - 7:10is really a melting pot
where outbreaks can occur and do occur. -
7:10 - 7:13We will eventually have
more and more of these outbreaks. -
7:13 - 7:17So an emerging infection today
is just a warning -
7:17 - 7:19of what will happen in the future.
-
7:19 - 7:20We have to make sure
-
7:20 - 7:23that that technical
collaboration in the world -
7:23 - 7:25is there to work together
-
7:25 - 7:28to make sure that we can understand
these outbreaks when they occur -
7:28 - 7:32and rapidly provide the information
necessary to control them. -
7:32 - 7:34[Is the worst behind us?]
-
7:34 - 7:36I can't predict with accuracy.
-
7:36 - 7:39So all I can say
is that we must all be prepared -
7:39 - 7:41for the worst-case scenario.
-
7:41 - 7:43And at the same time,
-
7:43 - 7:46learn how we can protect ourselves
and protect others -
7:46 - 7:48should we become a part of that epidemic.
-
7:49 - 7:52[To learn more, visit:
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention -
7:52 - 7:54World Health Organization]
- Title:
- What we do (and don't) know about the coronavirus
- Speaker:
- David Heymann
- Description:
-
What happens if you get infected with the coronavirus? Who's most at risk? How can you protect yourself? Public health expert David Heymann, who led the global response to the SARS outbreak in 2003, shares the latest findings about COVID-19 and what the future may hold.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 08:06
Erin Gregory edited English subtitles for What we do (and don't) know about the coronavirus | ||
Erin Gregory approved English subtitles for What we do (and don't) know about the coronavirus | ||
Erin Gregory edited English subtitles for What we do (and don't) know about the coronavirus | ||
Erin Gregory edited English subtitles for What we do (and don't) know about the coronavirus | ||
Erin Gregory edited English subtitles for What we do (and don't) know about the coronavirus | ||
Krystian Aparta accepted English subtitles for What we do (and don't) know about the coronavirus | ||
Krystian Aparta edited English subtitles for What we do (and don't) know about the coronavirus | ||
Krystian Aparta edited English subtitles for What we do (and don't) know about the coronavirus |