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There's No Tomorrow (2012)

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    Incubate Pictures presents
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    In association with Post Carbon Institute
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    There's No Tomorrow
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    This is the Earth,
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    as it looked 90 million years ago.
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    Geologists call this period the 'Late Cretaceous'.
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    It was a time of extreme global warming,
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    When dinosaurs still ruled the planet.
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    They went about their lives,
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    secure in their place at the top of the food chain,
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    oblivious of the changes taking place around them.
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    The continents were drifting apart,
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    opening huge rifts in the Earth's crust.
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    They flooded, becoming seas.
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    Algae thrived in the extreme heat,
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    poisoning the water.
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    They died,
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    and fell, in their trillions, to the bottom of the rifts.
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    Rivers washed sediment into the seas,
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    until the organic remains of the algae were buried.
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    As the pressure grew, so did the heat,
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    until a chemical reaction transformed the organics
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    into hydrocarbon fossil fuels:
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    Oil and Natural Gas.
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    A similar process occurred on land,
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    which produced coal.
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    It took nature about 5 million years
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    to create the fossil fuels that the world consumes in 1 year.
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    The modern way of life
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    is dependent on this fossilised sunlight,
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    although a surprising number of people take it for granted.
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    Since 1860, geologists have discovered over 2 trillion barrels of oil.
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    Since then, the world has used approximately half.
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    Before you can pump oil, you have to discover it.
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    At first it was easy to find, and cheap to extract.
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    The first great American oilfield was Spindletop, .
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    discovered in 1900
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    Many more followed.
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    Geologists scoured America.
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    They found enormous deposits of oil, natural gas and coal.
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    America produced more oil than any other country,
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    enabling it to become an industrial super-power.
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    Once an oil well starts producing oil,
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    it's only a matter of time before it enters a decline.
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    Individual wells have different production rates.
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    When many wells are averaged together,
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    the combined graph looks like a bell curve.
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    Typically
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    it takes 40 years after the peak of discovery
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    for a country to reach its peak of production,
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    after which it enters a permanent fall.
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    In the 1950s,
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    Shell geophysicist M. King Hubbert
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    predicted that America's oil production would peak in 1970,
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    40 years after the peak of U.S. oil discovery.
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    Few believed him.
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    However, in 1970,
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    American oil production peaked,
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    and entered a permanent decline.
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    Hubbert was vindicated.
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    From this point on,
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    America would depend increasingly on imported oil.
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    This made her vulnerable to supply disruptions,
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    and contributed to the economic mayhem of the 1973
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    and 1979 oil shocks.
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    The 1930s saw the highest rate of oil discoveries in U.S. history.
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    In spite of advanced technology,
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    the decline in the discovery of new american oilfields has been relentless.
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    More recent finds, such as ANWAR,
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    would at best provide enough oil for 17 months.
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    Even the new "Jack 2" field in the gulf of Mexico
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    would only supply a few months of domestic demand.
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    Though large, neither field comes close to satisfying
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    America's energy requirements.
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    Evidence is now mounting
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    that world oil production is peaking, or is close to it.
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    Globally, the rate of discovery of new oilfields peaked in the 1960s.
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    Over 40 years later,
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    the decline in the discovery of new fields
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    seems unstoppable.
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    54 of the 65 major oil producing nations
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    have already peaked in production.
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    Many of the others are expected to follow in the near future.
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    The world will need to bring the equivalent
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    of a new Saudi Arabia into production
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    every three years
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    to make up for declining output in existing oilfields.
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    In the nineteen sixties,
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    six barrels of oil were found for every one that was used.
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    Four decades later,
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    the world consumes between three and six barrels of oil
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    for every one that it finds.
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    Once the peak of world oil production is reached,
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    demand for oil will outstrip supply,
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    and the price of gasoline will fluctuate wildly,
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    affecting far more than the cost of filling a car.
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    Modern cities are fossil fuel dependent.
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    Even roads are made from asphalt,
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    a petroleum product,
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    as are the roofs of many homes.
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    Large areas would be uninhabitable
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    without heating in the winter or air conditioning in the summer.
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    Suburban sprawl encourages people to drive many miles
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    to work, school and stores.
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    Major cities have been zoned with residential
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    and commercial areas placed far apart,
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    forcing people to drive.
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    Suburbia, and many communities
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    were designed on the assumption of plentiful oil and energy.
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    Chemicals derived from fossil fuels,
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    or Petro-chemicals,
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    are essential in the manufacture of countless products.
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    The modern system of agriculture
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    is heavily dependent on fossil fuels,
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    as are hospitals,
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    aviation,
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    water distribution systems,
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    and the U.S. military,
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    which alone uses about 140 million barrels of oil a year.
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    Fossil fuels are also essential for the creation of plastics and polymers,
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    key ingredients in computers, entertainment devices and clothing.
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    The global economy currently depends on endless growth,
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    demanding an increasing supply of cheap energy.
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    We are so dependant on oil and other fossil fuels,
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    that even a small disruption in supply
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    may have far-reaching effects on every aspect of our lives.
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    ENERGY
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    Energy is the ability to do work.
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    The average American today has available the energy equivalent of 150 slaves, working 24 hours a day.
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    Materials that store this energy for work are called fuels,
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    Some fuels contain more energy than others.
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    This is called energy density.
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    Of these fuels, oil is the most critical.
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    The world consumes 30 billion barrels a year,
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    equal to 1 cubic mile of oil,
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    which contains as much energy
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    as would be generated from 52 nuclear power plants
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    working for the next 50 years.
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    Although oil only generates 1.6% of U.S. electricity,
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    it powers 96% of all transportation.
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    In 2008, two thirds of America's oil was imported.
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    Most was from Canada,
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    Mexico,
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    Saudi Arabia,
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    Venezuela,
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    Nigeria, Iraq and Angola.
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    Several factors make oil unique:
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    it is energy dense.
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    One barrel of oil contains the energy equivalent
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    of almost three years of human labour.
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    It is liquid at room temperature,
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    easy to transport
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    and usable in small engines.
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    To acquire energy, you have to use energy.
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    The trick is to use smaller amounts to find and extract larger amounts.
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    This is called EROEI:
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    Energy Return on Energy Invested.
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    Conventional oil is a good example.
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    The easy to extract, high-quality crude was pumped first.
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    Oilmen spent the energy equivalent of 1 barrel of oil to find and extract 100.
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    The EROEI of oil was 100.
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    As the easy to find oil was pumped first,
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    exploration moved into deep waters,
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    or distant countries,
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    using increasing amounts of energy to do so.
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    Often, the oil we find now is heavy or sour crude,
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    and is expensive to refine.
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    The EROEI for oil today is as low as 10.
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    If you use more energy to get the fuel than is contained in the fuel,
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    it's not worth the effort to get it.
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    It is possible to convert one fuel source into another.
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    Every time you do so,
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    some of the energy contained in the original fuel is lost.
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    For instance, there is unconventional oil:
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    Tar Sands and Shale.
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    Tar Sands are found mainly in Canada.
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    Two thirds of the world's shale is in the US.
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    Both of these fuels can be converted to synthetic crude oil.
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    However, this requires large amounts of heat and fresh water,
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    reducing their EROEI,
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    which varies from five, to as low as one and a half.
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    Shale is an exceptionally poor fuel,
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    pound for pound containing about one third the energy
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    of a box of breakfast cereal.
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    Coal exists in vast quantities,
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    and generates almost half of the planet's electricity.
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    The world uses almost 2 cubic miles of coal a year.
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    However, Global coal production may peak before 2040.
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    The claim that America has centuries worth of coal is deceptive,
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    as it fails to account for growing demand, and decreasing quality.
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    Much of the high quality anthracite coal is gone,
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    leaving lower quality coal that is less energy dense.
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    Production issues arise, as surface coal is depleted,
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    and miners have to dig deeper and in less accessible areas.
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    Many use destructive mountaintop removal to reach coal deposits,
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    causing environmental mayhem.
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    Natural gas is often found alongside oil and coal.
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    North American discovery of conventional gas peaked in the 1950s,
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    and production peaked in the early 70s.
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    If the discovery graph is moved forward by 23 years,
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    the possible future of North American conventional natural gas production
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    is revealed.
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    Recent breakthroughs have allowed the extraction of unconventional natural gas,
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    such as shale gas, which might help offset decline in the years ahead.
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    Unconventional natural gas is controversial,
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    as it needs high energy prices to be profitable.
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    Even with Unconventional gas,
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    there may be a peak in global natural gas production by 2030.
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    Large uranium reserves for nuclear fission still exist.
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    To replace the 10 terawatts the world currently generates from fossil fuels,
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    would require 10,000 nuclear power plants.
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    At that rate, the known reserves of uranium would last for only 10 to 20 years.
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    Experiments with plutonium based fast-breeder reactors
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    in France and Japan
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    have been expensive failures.
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    Nuclear fusion faces massive technical obstacles.
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    Then there are the renewables.
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    Windpower has a high EROEI, but is intermittent.
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    Hydro power is reliable,
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    but most rivers in the developed world are already dammed.
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    Conventional geothermal power plants
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    use existing hotspots near the Earth's surface.
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    They are limited to those areas.
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    In the experimental EGS system,
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    two shafts would be drilled 6 miles deep.
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    Water is pumped down one shaft, to be heated in fissures,
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    then rise up the other, generating power.
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    According to a recent MIT report,
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    this technology might supply 10% of US electricity by 2050.
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    Wave power is restricted to coastal areas.
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    The energy density of waves varies from region to region.
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    Transporting wave-generated electricity inland would be challenging.
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    Also, the salty ocean environment is corrosive to turbines.
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    Biofuels are fuels that are grown.
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    Wood has a low energy density, and grows slowly.
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    The world uses 3.7 cubic miles of wood a year.
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    Biodiesel and ethanol
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    are made from crops grown by petroleum powered agriculture.
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    The energy profit from these fuels is very low.
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    Some politicians want to turn corn into ethanol.
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    Using Ethanol to supply one tenth of projected US oil use in 2020,
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    would require 3% of America's Land.
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    To supply one third would require 3 times the area now used to grow food.
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    To supply all US petroleum consumption in 2020
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    would take twice as much land as is used to grow food.
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    Hydrogen has to be extracted from Natural Gas, coal or water,
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    which uses more energy than we get from the Hydrogen.
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    This makes a Hydrogen economy unlikely.
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    All the world's photovoltaic solar panels generate as much electricity
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    as two coal power plants.
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    The equivalent of between 1 and 4 tons of coal
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    are used in the manufacture of a single solar panel.
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    We'd have to cover as many as 140,000 square miles with panels
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    to meet current world demand.
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    As of 2007, there are only about 4 square miles.
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    Concentrated Solar Power, or Solar Thermal has great potential,
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    though at the moment there are only a small number of plants operating.
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    They are also limited to sunny climates,
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    requiring large amounts of electricity
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    to be transmitted over long distances.
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    All of the alternatives to oil depend on oil-powered machinery,
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    or require materials such as plastics that are produced from oil.
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    When considering future claims of amazing new fuels or inventions,
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    ask:
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    Does the advocate have a working, commercial model of the invention?
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    What is its energy density?
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    Can it be stored or easily distributed?
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    Is it reliable or intermittent?
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    Can it be scaled to a national level?
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    Are there hidden engineering challenges?
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    What is the EROEI?
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    What are the environmental impacts?
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    Remember that large numbers can be deceptive.
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    For example: 1 billion barrels of oil
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    will satisfy global demand for only 12 days.
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    A transition from fossil fuels would be a monumental challenge.
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    As of 2007, coal generates 48.5% of U.S. electricity.
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    21.6% is from natural gas,
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    1.6% is from petroleum,
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    19.4% is from nuclear,
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    5.8% is from hydro.
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    Other renewables only generate 2.5%.
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    Is it possible to replace a system based on fossil fuels
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    with a patchwork of alternatives?
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    Major technological advances are needed,
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    as well as political will and co-operation,
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    massive investment,
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    international consensus,
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    the retrofitting of the $45 trillion global economy,
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    including transportation,
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    manufacturing industries,
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    and agricultural systems,
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    as well as officials competent to manage the transition.
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    If all these are achieved,
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    could the current way of life continue?
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    Growth
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    These bacteria live in a bottle.
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    Their population doubles every minute.
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    At 11AM there is one bacterium.
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    At 12 noon the bottle is full.
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    It is half-full at 11.59
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    leaving only enough space for one more doubling.
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    The bacteria see the danger.
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    They search for new bottles, and find 3.
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    They assume that their problem is solved.
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    By 12 noon, the first bottle is full.
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    By 12.01, the second bottle is full.
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    By 12.02, all the bottles are full.
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    This is the problem that we face,
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    due to the doubling caused by Exponential Growth.
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    When humanity began to use coal and oil as fuel sources,
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    it experienced unprecedented growth.
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    Even low growth rates produce large increases over time.
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    At a 1% growth rate,
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    an economy will double in 70 years.
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    A 2% rate doubles in 35 years.
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    At a 10% growth rate,
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    an economy will double in only 7 years.
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    If an economy grows at the current average of 3%,
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    it doubles every 23 years.
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    With each doubling, demand for energy and resources
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    will exceed all the previous doublings combined.
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    The financial system is built on the assumption of growth
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    - which requires an increasing supply of energy to support it.
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    Banks lend money they don't have,
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    in effect creating it.
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    The borrowers use the newly created loan money to grow their businesses,
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    and pay back the debt,
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    with an interest payment which requires more growth.
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    Due to this creation of debt formed money,
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    most of the world's money represents a debt with interest to be paid.
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    Without continual new and ever larger generations
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    of borrowers to produce growth,
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    and thus pay off these debts,
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    the world economy will collapse.
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    Like a Ponzi Scheme,
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    the system must expand or die.
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    Partly through this debt system,
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    the effects of economic growth have been spectacular:
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    in GDP,
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    damming of rivers,
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    water use,
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    fertiliser consumption,
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    urban population,
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    paper consumption,
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    motor vehicles,
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    communications
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    and tourism.
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    World population has grown to 7 billion,
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    and is expected to exceed 9 billion by 2050.
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    On a flat, infinite earth, this would not be a problem.
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    However, as the Earth is round and finite,
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    we will eventually face limits to growth.
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    Economic expansion
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    has resulted in increases in atmospheric nitrous oxide
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    and methane,
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    ozone depletion,
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    increases in great floods,
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    damage to ocean ecosystems,
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    including nitrogen runoff,
  • 20:28 - 20:31
    loss of rainforest and woodland,
  • 20:31 - 20:33
    increases in domesticated land,
  • 20:33 - 20:36
    and species exinctions.
  • 20:38 - 20:40
    If we place a single grain of rice
  • 20:40 - 20:42
    on the first square of a chessboard,
  • 20:42 - 20:45
    double this and place 2 grains on the second,
  • 20:46 - 20:49
    double again and place 4 on the third,
  • 20:49 - 20:51
    double again and place 8 on the fourth,
  • 20:52 - 20:53
    and continue this way,
  • 20:53 - 20:55
    putting on each square twice the number of grains
  • 20:55 - 20:57
    than were on the previous one,
  • 20:57 - 20:59
    by the time we reach the final square,
  • 20:59 - 21:01
    we need an astronomical number of grains:
  • 21:04 - 21:05
    9 quintillion,
  • 21:05 - 21:07
    223 quadrillion,
  • 21:07 - 21:09
    372 trillion,
  • 21:09 - 21:11
    36 billion,
  • 21:11 - 21:13
    854 million,
  • 21:13 - 21:17
    776 thousand grains:
  • 21:17 - 21:19
    more grain than the human race
  • 21:19 - 21:22
    has grown in the last 10,000 years.
  • 21:23 - 21:24
    Modern economies,
  • 21:24 - 21:25
    like the grains on the chess board,
  • 21:25 - 21:27
    doubles every few decades.
  • 21:28 - 21:31
    On which square of the chessboard are we?
  • 21:33 - 21:35
    Besides energy,
  • 21:35 - 21:38
    civilisation demands numerous essential resources:
  • 21:38 - 21:39
    fresh water,
  • 21:39 - 21:40
    topsoil,
  • 21:40 - 21:41
    food,
  • 21:41 - 21:42
    forests,
  • 21:42 - 21:44
    and many kinds of minerals and metals.
  • 21:45 - 21:46
    Growth is limited
  • 21:46 - 21:49
    by the essential resource in scarcest supply.
  • 21:51 - 21:52
    A barrel is made of staves,
  • 21:52 - 21:55
    and like water filling a barrel,
  • 21:55 - 21:58
    growth can go no further than the lowest stave,
  • 21:58 - 22:01
    or the most limited essential resource.
  • 22:02 - 22:04
    Humans currently utilise
  • 22:04 - 22:07
    40% of all photosynthesis n Earth.
  • 22:08 - 22:10
    Though it might be possible to use 80%,
  • 22:10 - 22:14
    we are unlikely to ever use 160%.
  • 22:23 - 22:26
    FOOD
  • 22:27 - 22:28
    The global food supply
  • 22:28 - 22:30
    relies heavily on fossil fuels.
  • 22:32 - 22:33
    Before WW1,
  • 22:33 - 22:35
    all agriculture was Organic.
  • 22:36 - 22:40
    Following the invention of fossil fuel derived fertilisers and pesticides
  • 22:40 - 22:42
    there were massive improvements in food production,
  • 22:43 - 22:45
    allowing for increases in human population.
  • 22:48 - 22:49
    The use of artificial fertilisers
  • 22:49 - 22:52
    has fed far more people than would have been possible
  • 22:52 - 22:55
    with organic agriculture alone.
  • 22:56 - 22:58
    Fossil fuels are needed for farming equipment,
  • 22:58 - 23:00
    transportation,
  • 23:00 - 23:01
    refrigeration,
  • 23:01 - 23:03
    packaging - in plastic,
  • 23:03 - 23:05
    and cooking.
  • 23:05 - 23:09
    Modern agriculture uses land to turn fossil fuels into food
  • 23:09 - 23:11
    - and food into people.
  • 23:12 - 23:14
    About 7 calories of fossil-fuel energy
  • 23:14 - 23:17
    are used to produce 1 calorie of food.
  • 23:19 - 23:25
    In America, food travels approximately 1,500 miles from farm to customer.
  • 23:30 - 23:32
    Besides fossil fuel decline,
  • 23:32 - 23:35
    there are several threats to the current system of food production:
  • 23:35 - 23:36
    Cheap energy,
  • 23:36 - 23:38
    improved technology
  • 23:38 - 23:41
    and subsidies have allowed massive fish catches.
  • 23:43 - 23:46
    Global fish catches peaked in the late nineteen eighties,
  • 23:46 - 23:49
    forcing fishermen to move into deep waters.
  • 23:53 - 23:56
    Nitrogen run off by fossil fuel based fertilisers
  • 23:56 - 24:00
    poisons rivers and seas, creating enormous dead zones.
  • 24:00 - 24:01
    At this rate,
  • 24:01 - 24:04
    all fish populations are projected to collapse
  • 24:04 - 24:06
    by 2048.
  • 24:07 - 24:11
    Acid rain from cities and industries leeches the soil of vital nutrients,
  • 24:11 - 24:12
    such as potassium,
  • 24:12 - 24:13
    calcium,
  • 24:13 - 24:14
    and magnesium.
  • 24:18 - 24:20
    Another threat is a lack of water.
  • 24:20 - 24:25
    Many farms use water pumped from underground aquifers for irrigation.
  • 24:26 - 24:29
    The aquifers need thousands of years to fill up,
  • 24:29 - 24:31
    but can be pumped dry in a few decades,
  • 24:31 - 24:33
    like oil wells.
  • 24:34 - 24:37
    America's massive Ogallala aquifer has fallen so low
  • 24:37 - 24:41
    that many farmers have had to return to less productive dry-land farming.
  • 24:42 - 24:47
    Additionally, The use of irrigation and fertilisers can lead to salinisation:
  • 24:47 - 24:49
    the accumulation of salt in the soil.
  • 24:49 - 24:52
    This is a major cause of desertification.
  • 24:53 - 24:56
    Still another threat is topsoil loss.
  • 24:56 - 24:58
    200 years ago,
  • 24:58 - 25:01
    there were 6 feet of topsoil on the American prairies.
  • 25:01 - 25:03
    Today, through tillage and poor practices,
  • 25:03 - 25:06
    approximately half is gone.
  • 25:09 - 25:13
    Irrigation encourages the growth of stem rust fungi like UG-99
  • 25:13 - 25:18
    - which has the potential to destroy 80% of the world's grain harvest.
  • 25:19 - 25:20
    According to Norman Borlaug,
  • 25:20 - 25:22
    father of the Green Revolution,
  • 25:22 - 25:28
    stem rust "has immense potential for social and human destruction."
  • 25:29 - 25:32
    The use of biofuels means that less land
  • 25:32 - 25:35
    will be available for food production.
  • 25:37 - 25:39
    An area has a finite carrying capacity.
  • 25:40 - 25:42
    This is the number of animals or people
  • 25:42 - 25:44
    that can live there indefinitely.
  • 25:44 - 25:47
    If a species overshoots the carrying capacity of that area,
  • 25:47 - 25:52
    it will die back until the population returns to its natural limits.
  • 25:53 - 25:54
    The world has avoided this die-off
  • 25:54 - 25:56
    by finding new lands to cultivate,
  • 25:56 - 25:58
    or by increasing production,
  • 25:58 - 26:01
    which has been possible largely thanks to oil.
  • 26:01 - 26:04
    To continue growth,
  • 26:04 - 26:07
    more resources are required than the Earth can provide,
  • 26:07 - 26:10
    but no new planets are available.
  • 26:11 - 26:13
    In the face of all these challenges,
  • 26:13 - 26:16
    global food production must double by 2050
  • 26:16 - 26:19
    to feed the growing world population.
  • 26:21 - 26:24
    1 billion people are already malnourished or starving.
  • 26:24 - 26:28
    There will be challenges in feeding over 9 billion in the years to come,
  • 26:28 - 26:32
    when world oil and natural gas production will be in decline.
  • 26:41 - 26:43
    HAPPY ENDING
  • 26:46 - 26:48
    The global economy grows exponentially,
  • 26:48 - 26:50
    at about 3% a year,
  • 26:50 - 26:53
    consuming increasing amounts of non-renewable fuels,
  • 26:53 - 26:55
    minerals and metals,
  • 26:55 - 26:57
    as well as renewable resources
  • 26:57 - 27:00
    like water, forests, soils and fish
  • 27:00 - 27:02
    faster than they can be replenished.
  • 27:04 - 27:06
    Even at a growth rate of 1%,
  • 27:06 - 27:08
    an economy will double in 70 years.
  • 27:10 - 27:13
    The problem is intensified by other factors:
  • 27:13 - 27:16
    Globalisation allows people on one continent
  • 27:16 - 27:18
    to buy goods and food made by those on another.
  • 27:19 - 27:21
    The lines of supply are long,
  • 27:21 - 27:24
    placing strains on a limited oil resource.
  • 27:26 - 27:29
    We now rely on distant countries for basic necessities.
  • 27:31 - 27:33
    Modern cities are fossil fuel dependent.
  • 27:34 - 27:37
    Most Banking Systems are based on debt,
  • 27:37 - 27:40
    forcing people into a spiral of loans and repayments
  • 27:40 - 27:42
    - producing growth.
  • 27:43 - 27:46
    What can be done in the face of these problems?
  • 27:47 - 27:49
    Many believe that the crisis can be prevented
  • 27:49 - 27:50
    through conservation,
  • 27:50 - 27:51
    technology,
  • 27:51 - 27:53
    smart growth,
  • 27:53 - 27:54
    recycling,
  • 27:54 - 27:55
    electric cars and hybrids,
  • 27:55 - 27:57
    substitution,
  • 27:57 - 27:58
    or voting.
  • 28:00 - 28:01
    Conservation will save you money,
  • 28:01 - 28:04
    but it alone won't save the planet.
  • 28:05 - 28:07
    If some people cut back on oil use,
  • 28:07 - 28:10
    the reduced demand will drive down the price,
  • 28:10 - 28:12
    allowing others to buy it for less.
  • 28:13 - 28:14
    In the same fashion,
  • 28:14 - 28:17
    a more efficient engine that uses less energy will,
  • 28:17 - 28:21
    paradoxically, lead to greater energy use.
  • 28:22 - 28:23
    In the 19th century,
  • 28:23 - 28:26
    English economist William Stanley Jevons
  • 28:26 - 28:28
    realised that Better steam engines made coal
  • 28:28 - 28:31
    a more cost effective fuel source,
  • 28:31 - 28:33
    which led to the use of more steam engines,
  • 28:33 - 28:36
    which increased total coal consumption.
  • 28:37 - 28:40
    Growth of use will consume any energy or resources
  • 28:40 - 28:42
    saved through conservation.
  • 28:48 - 28:49
    Many believe that scientists
  • 28:49 - 28:52
    will solve these problems with new technology.
  • 28:52 - 28:55
    However, technology is not energy.
  • 28:56 - 28:58
    Technology can channel energy into work,
  • 28:58 - 29:00
    but it can't replace it.
  • 29:00 - 29:02
    It also consumes resources:
  • 29:02 - 29:03
    for instance;
  • 29:03 - 29:05
    computers are made with one tenth
  • 29:05 - 29:08
    of the energy needed to make a car.
  • 29:09 - 29:10
    More advanced technologies
  • 29:10 - 29:12
    may make the situation worse,
  • 29:12 - 29:14
    as many require rare minerals,
  • 29:14 - 29:16
    which are also approaching limits.
  • 29:17 - 29:18
    For example,
  • 29:18 - 29:22
    97% of the world's Rare Earths are produced by China,
  • 29:22 - 29:25
    most from a single mine in inner Mongolia.
  • 29:26 - 29:29
    These minerals are used in catalytic converters,
  • 29:29 - 29:31
    aircraft engines,
  • 29:31 - 29:33
    high efficiency magnets and hard drives,
  • 29:33 - 29:35
    hybrid car batteries,
  • 29:35 - 29:36
    lasers,
  • 29:36 - 29:38
    portable X-Rays,
  • 29:38 - 29:40
    shielding for nuclear reactors,
  • 29:40 - 29:42
    compact discs,
  • 29:42 - 29:44
    hybrid vehicle motors,
  • 29:44 - 29:45
    low energy light-bulbs,
  • 29:45 - 29:47
    fibre optics
  • 29:47 - 29:48
    and flat-screen displays.
  • 29:49 - 29:53
    China has begun to consider restricting the export of these minerals,
  • 29:53 - 29:54
    as demand soars.
  • 29:57 - 30:01
    So called sustainable growth or smart growth won't help,
  • 30:01 - 30:04
    as it also uses non renewable metals and minerals
  • 30:04 - 30:05
    in ever increasing quantities,
  • 30:05 - 30:08
    including Rare Earths.
  • 30:09 - 30:10
    Recycling will not solve the problem,
  • 30:11 - 30:12
    as it requires energy,
  • 30:12 - 30:14
    and the process is not 100% efficient.
  • 30:16 - 30:20
    It is only possible to reclaim a fraction of the material being recycled;
  • 30:20 - 30:23
    a large portion is lost forever as waste.
  • 30:25 - 30:28
    Electric cars run on electricity.
  • 30:28 - 30:31
    As most power is generated from fossil fuels,
  • 30:31 - 30:33
    this is not a solution.
  • 30:33 - 30:37
    Also, cars of all types consume oil in their production.
  • 30:37 - 30:41
    Each tire alone requires about 7 gallons of Petroleum.
  • 30:43 - 30:47
    There are around 800 million cars in the world, as of 2010.
  • 30:47 - 30:49
    At current growth rates,
  • 30:49 - 30:53
    this number would reach 2 billion by 2025.
  • 30:54 - 30:57
    It is unlikely that the planet can support this many vehicles for long,
  • 30:57 - 31:00
    regardless of their power source.
  • 31:01 - 31:02
    Many economists believe
  • 31:03 - 31:05
    that the free market will substitute one energy source
  • 31:05 - 31:07
    with another through technological innovation.
  • 31:08 - 31:10
    However, the main substitutes to oil
  • 31:10 - 31:12
    face their own decline rates.
  • 31:14 - 31:19
    Substitution also fails to account for the time needed to prepare for a transition.
  • 31:20 - 31:22
    The U.S. Department of Energy's Hirsch report
  • 31:22 - 31:25
    estimates that at least 2 decades would be needed to prepare
  • 31:25 - 31:28
    for the effects of Peak Oil.
  • 31:29 - 31:31
    The issues of energy shortages,
  • 31:31 - 31:33
    resource depletion,
  • 31:33 - 31:35
    topsoil loss,
  • 31:35 - 31:39
    and pollution are all symptoms of a single, larger problem:
  • 31:40 - 31:42
    Growth.
  • 31:44 - 31:46
    As long as our financial system demands endless growth,
  • 31:46 - 31:49
    reform is unlikely to succeed.
  • 31:50 - 31:53
    What then, will the future look like?
  • 31:54 - 31:56
    Optimists believe that growth will continue forever,
  • 31:56 - 31:58
    without limits.
  • 31:59 - 32:02
    Pessimists think that we're heading towards a new Stone Age,
  • 32:02 - 32:04
    or extinction.
  • 32:05 - 32:06
    The truth may lie between these extremes.
  • 32:07 - 32:12
    It is possible that society might fall back to a simpler state,
  • 32:12 - 32:15
    one in which energy use is a lot less.
  • 32:16 - 32:18
    This would mean a harder life for most.
  • 32:18 - 32:19
    More manual labour,
  • 32:19 - 32:20
    more farm work,
  • 32:20 - 32:24
    and local production of goods, food and services.
  • 32:25 - 32:28
    What should a person do to prepare for such a possible future?
  • 32:29 - 32:33
    Expect a decrease in supplies of food and goods from far away places.
  • 32:34 - 32:36
    Start walking or cycling.
  • 32:36 - 32:39
    Get used to using less electricity.
  • 32:40 - 32:41
    Get out of debt.
  • 32:42 - 32:43
    Try to avoid banks.
  • 32:43 - 32:45
    Instead of shopping at big box stores,
  • 32:45 - 32:48
    support local businesses.
  • 32:48 - 32:52
    Buy food grown locally, at Farmers' Markets.
  • 32:52 - 32:55
    Instead of a lawn, consider gardening to grow your own food.
  • 32:55 - 32:57
    Learn how to preserve it.
  • 32:58 - 33:00
    Consider the use of local currencies
  • 33:00 - 33:02
    should the larger economy cease to function,
  • 33:02 - 33:06
    and develop greater self sufficiency.
  • 33:07 - 33:08
    None of these steps will prevent Collapse,
  • 33:08 - 33:12
    but they might improve your chances in a low energy future,
  • 33:13 - 33:15
    one in which we will have to be more self reliant,
  • 33:15 - 33:18
    as our ancestors once were.
Título:
There's No Tomorrow (2012)
Descrição:

The first production by http://www.incubatepictures.com:
A 34 minute animated documentary about resource depletion and the impossibility of infinite growth on a finite planet.

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Idioma do Vídeo:
English
Duração:
34:53

Legendas em English

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