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( Incubate Pictures 呈獻 )

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( Post Carbon Institute 協作 )

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( 沒有明天 )

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呢個係地球九千萬年前嘅樣

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地質學家叫呢個時期做白堊紀晚期

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呢個時間氣候暖化極之嚴重

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恐龍仍然係地球嘅霸者

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喺地球上不斷生長

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穩居食物鏈嘅頂端

10
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但佢哋冇留意到四周圍發生嘅巨變

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大陸漸漸分裂

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地殼中出現巨大嘅裂縫

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之後俾水淹浸，成為咗海洋

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喺極高温嘅環境之下

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污染咗水源

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數以億計嘅藻類死亡

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沉喺裂縫嘅底部

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河水將沉澱物仲入海裏面

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淹蓋咗藻類遺骸中嘅有機物

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隨住施加喺遺骸上
嘅壓力同埋温度不斷上升

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有機物透過化學作用

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轉化為碳氫類化石燃料

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就係石油同埋天然氣

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喺陸地上同樣嘅過程喺度進行緊

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煤就係咁出現

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大自然五百萬年先至生成

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世界一年所消耗化石燃料嘅用量

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現代嘅生活方式

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大大依賴呢一種化石能源

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但係令人驚訝嘅係

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仍然有唔少人視之為理所當然

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由 1860 年到宜家

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地質學家一共發現咗
超過二萬兆桶嘅石油

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但係到宜家，世界已經用咗差唔多一半

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喺開採石油之前，必先要搵到油田

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起初，人類好容易就發現到油礦

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同埋開採成本亦都相當平

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美國第一個大型油田 Spindletop

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喺 1990 年俾人發現


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之後，陸續有新嘅油田發現

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地質學家行勻成個美國

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發現咗大量嘅石油、天然氣
同埋煤嘅資源

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美國成為世界最大嘅產油國

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因而成為超級工業強國

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油井開始產油之後，產油量必然會下降

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至於產油量幾時下降都只係時間問題

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每個油井嘅產油速度都唔同

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但係平均嚟講

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佢嘅趨勢圖係一條鐘型嘅曲線

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同常一個國家

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發現油井嘅高峰期四十年之後

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產油量就會到高峰

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跟住就會永久下跌

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1950 年代

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蜆殼公司地質物理學家
M. King Hubbert

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預計美國嘅產油量會
喺 1970 年代到達最高峰

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即係發現石油嘅高峰之後嘅四十年

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當時，好少人相信佢嘅說話

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但係到咗 1970 年代


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美國產油量真係到咗最高峰

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之後永遠下降

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Hubbert 嘅預測得到平反

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從此之後

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美國愈黎黎依賴進口石油

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少少石油供應嘅變動都好影響到美國

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因而喺 1973 年
同埋 1979 年嘅石油危機裏邊

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美國陷入經濟衰退

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1930 年代係美國史上
發現油田最快嘅時期

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雖然科技先進

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但呢樣仍然唔能夠扭轉美國
愈黎愈少發現新油田嘅趨勢

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最近發現嘅油田，好似 ANWAR

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最多只能夠提供足夠
17 個月用量的石油

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甚至連墨西哥灣嘅新油田 Jack 2

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都只係能夠滿足幾個月嘅國內需求

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雖然新油田嘅規模相當大


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但係冇一個油田可以
滿足到美國嘅能源需求

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現時有實質證據證明

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世界石油產量已經攀升
或者已經接近頂峰

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1960 年代係全球發現新油田嘅顛峰

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四十年之後嘅今日

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發現新油田減少嘅趨勢

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似乎唔可以逆轉

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65 個主要產油國中

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54 個產油國嘅產量都已經達到頂峰

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預計其餘嘅國家大多數
都會喺冇幾耐之後到達頂峰

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世界如果要彌補宜家油田產量嘅下降

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需要每三年就要搵到一個

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相當於沙特阿拉伯總產油量嘅新油田

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1960 年代石油產量遠遠超過用量

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人類每用一桶石油
同時亦都有六桶新石油補充

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但係四十年後，情況完全逆轉

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人類用三至到六桶石油期間

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至發現一桶新石油

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當世界產油量到達最高峰

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石油需求將會遠遠超過供應

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而氣油價格亦都會大起大落

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唔單止影響駕駛成本
仲有更大嘅影響

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現代城市非常依賴化石燃料

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甚至連道路同埋好多房屋嘅屋頂

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都係使用石油產出嘅瀝青

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如果喺冬天冇暖爐，夏天冇冷氣

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好多地方根本唔適合人類居住

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住係市郊令到人類需要渣車幾英里

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去返工、返學，同埋買嘢

105
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而主要嘅城市將住宅區

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同埋商業區遠遠分離

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人類被逼以車代步

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住喺郊區同埋好多社會嘅規劃都係

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基於石油同埋能源充裕嘅假設

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由化石燃料生產出嘅化學物
或者石油化工產品

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喺無數產品嘅製造中

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有舉足輕重嘅地位

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現代化農業系統、醫院

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航空交通、供水系統，甚至美國軍部

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都十分倚重化學燃料

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單單美軍一年就用上十四億桶石桶

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而化石燃料亦都係製造塑膠

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聚合物、電腦主要部件、娛樂設備

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衣服等等各方面唔可以缺少嘅材料

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現時環球經濟取決於無盡嘅增長

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需要愈黎愈多廉價能源嘅供應

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我哋太依賴石油同埋其他化學燃料

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以至只要燃料喺供應上
有任何少少嘅差池

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對我哋生活每方面都有影響

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( 能源 )

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能量就係做嘢嘅能力

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宜家每個美國人
平均每日可以用到嘅能量

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就相當於 150 個奴隸 24 小時
不斷工作所用嘅能量

129
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儲存呢啲能量嘅物質就係燃料

130
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有啲燃料擁有較高嘅能量

131
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呢個同能量密度有關

132
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喺咁多燃料當中石油係最重要嘅

133
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世界每年消耗三千億桶石油

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相當於一立方英里嘅石油裏面
所含嘅能量

135
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相等於 52 間核電廠

136
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運作 50 年所產生嘅能量

137
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雖然石油發電只係佔美國用電嘅 1.6%

138
00:08:07,130 --> 00:08:10,663
但係石油為 96% 交通供給能量

139
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喺2008年
三分之二嘅美國石油係入口嘅

140
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多數黎自加拿大、墨西哥
沙特阿拉伯、委內瑞拉

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尼日尼亞、伊拉克同埋安哥拉

142
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石油有幾個獨特之處

143
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佢嘅能量密度非常之高

144
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一桶石油嘅能量就相等於

145
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人類勞動接近三年所用嘅能量

146
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石油喺室溫係液體狀態

147
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容易運送

148
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喺細小嘅引擎亦都可以使用

149
00:08:45,079 --> 00:08:48,324
要獲得能量，先要付出能量

150
00:08:48,610 --> 00:08:53,368
其中嘅秘詇就係以小換多

151
00:08:53,368 --> 00:08:55,945
呢個方式叫做 EROEI

152
00:08:55,945 --> 00:08:59,696
(energy return on energy invested)
用能量投資去換取能量

153
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傳統嘅石油開採係一個好例子

154
00:09:03,710 --> 00:09:07,860
易開採、高品質原油先會被開採

155
00:09:08,530 --> 00:09:11,750
然後石油商人用一桶石油嘅能量

156
00:09:11,750 --> 00:09:14,600
去尋找同埋提取一百桶石油

157
00:09:14,760 --> 00:09:17,760
噉樣石油嘅 EROEI 就係100

158
00:09:18,717 --> 00:09:21,660
喺開採容易鑽探嘅石油之後

159
00:09:21,660 --> 00:09:24,100
佢哋用一步會去探索深海

160
00:09:24,100 --> 00:09:25,731
或者偏遠國家嘅石油資源

161
00:09:25,731 --> 00:09:28,796
所需要嘅能量會愈黎愈大

162
00:09:29,091 --> 00:09:32,670
我哋宜家通常搵到嘅石油
都係重油或者硫化原油

163
00:09:32,670 --> 00:09:34,647
提煉費相當昂貴

164
00:09:35,250 --> 00:09:38,437
宜家石油嘅 EROEI 已經跌到 10

165
00:09:40,033 --> 00:09:44,273
如果尋找燃料所需要嘅能量比獲取嘅多

166
00:09:44,273 --> 00:09:46,828
噉樣根本係唔值嘅

167
00:09:49,450 --> 00:09:52,736
人類係可以將一種燃料轉換成另一種

168
00:09:53,260 --> 00:09:54,550
但經每次轉換後

169
00:09:54,550 --> 00:09:58,239
將會流失原本燃料中部分能量

170
00:09:58,728 --> 00:10:03,390
非傳統石油嘅例子有焦油砂同埋頁岩

171
00:10:04,027 --> 00:10:06,518
焦油砂主要黎自加拿大

172
00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:10,280
而世界三分之二嘅頁岩產於美國

173
00:10:10,901 --> 00:10:14,150
呢兩種燃料都可以轉化為合成原油

174
00:10:14,150 --> 00:10:17,520
但係由於過程需要大量嘅熱能同埋清水

175
00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:19,500
因而大大降低佢嘅 EROEI

176
00:10:19,500 --> 00:10:22,555
最高 5，最低 1.5

177
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頁岩係比較唔好嘅燃料

178
00:10:26,610 --> 00:10:28,251
幾磅嘅頁岩先至可以提供

179
00:10:28,251 --> 00:10:31,340
相當於一盒穀物早餐三分一嘅能量

180
00:10:32,813 --> 00:10:34,700
世界上有大量嘅煤資源

181
00:10:34,705 --> 00:10:38,317
燃煤發電提供咗全球接近一半嘅電

182
00:10:38,330 --> 00:10:41,690
全球每年大約耗用兩立方英里嘅煤

183
00:10:42,090 --> 00:10:46,875
但係預計全球嘅煤產量
將會喺 2040 年前到頂

184
00:10:47,773 --> 00:10:50,150
有人話美國嘅煤資源足夠用到幾百年

185
00:10:50,150 --> 00:10:51,879
但係呢個講法有誤導性

186
00:10:51,879 --> 00:10:56,059
因為呢個講法冇考慮到
需求增長同埋產量下降

187
00:10:56,059 --> 00:10:59,227
大部分高質素無煙煤已經被開採

188
00:10:59,227 --> 00:11:03,115
剩返能量密度比較低嘅低質素煤

189
00:11:04,076 --> 00:11:05,510
另外亦都有種種開採嘅問題


190
00:11:05,510 --> 00:11:10,530
表面嘅煤已經被耗盡
煤礦商只有掘更深更難到達嘅地方

191
00:11:10,890 --> 00:11:13,351
其中好多人會用
破壞性嘅山頂去除法

192
00:11:13,351 --> 00:11:14,734
去開採底下嘅煤資源

193
00:11:14,734 --> 00:11:17,674
噉樣對環境造成非常大嘅破壞

194
00:11:19,434 --> 00:11:22,760
有石油同埋煤嘅地方就會天然氣

195
00:11:23,620 --> 00:11:27,400
北美洲傳統天然氣嘅發現
喺 1950 年代係達到頂峰

196
00:11:27,401 --> 00:11:30,283
而產量亦都喺 1970 年初達到頂峰

197
00:11:31,029 --> 00:11:34,125
如果將代表發現天然氣嘅圖表
褪遲 23 年

198
00:11:34,125 --> 00:11:39,630
未來北美可能有嘅
傳統天然氣產量就一目了然

199
00:11:41,044 --> 00:11:45,412
由於近期嘅科技突破
人類已經可以提取非傳統嘅天然氣

200
00:11:45,412 --> 00:11:50,066
譬如，頁岩天然氣
或者可以暫緩未來嘅產量下降

201
00:11:50,874 --> 00:11:53,962
但係開採非傳統天然氣
仍然係被受爭議嘅

202
00:11:53,962 --> 00:11:57,566
因為呢個方法需要賣得好高
先至能夠賺到錢

203
00:11:58,061 --> 00:12:00,370
即使有非傳統天然氣

204
00:12:00,370 --> 00:12:05,349
全球嘅天然氣產量亦都預計
會喺 2030 年或之前到達頂峰

205
00:12:07,280 --> 00:12:11,087
人類仲有大量
可以做核裂變嘅鈾元素

206
00:12:11,857 --> 00:12:16,123
但係如果用核能發電取代
現代全球化石燃料發電所獲得嘅十太瓦

207
00:12:16,123 --> 00:12:19,230
就需要一萬間核能發電廠

208
00:12:19,250 --> 00:12:20,360
以此推算

209
00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:24,870
宜家已知嘅鈾元素含量
只可以支持 10 到 20 年嘅用量

210
00:12:25,770 --> 00:12:27,573
喺日本同埋法國

211
00:12:27,573 --> 00:12:31,107
分別投放大量資源
用鈈做試驗嘅快速增值反應堆

212
00:12:31,108 --> 00:12:33,440
結果都係失敗

213
00:12:34,237 --> 00:12:37,777
而核聚變仍然有巨大嘅技術障礙

214
00:12:38,612 --> 00:12:40,300
我哋仲有再生能源

215
00:12:40,722 --> 00:12:45,493
雖然風能有高嘅 EROEI
但風力唔穩定

216
00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:47,335
而水能雖然可靠

217
00:12:47,335 --> 00:12:50,946
但係發達國家之中
大部分嘅河流一早起咗水壩

218
00:12:52,035 --> 00:12:57,462
傳統地熱發電站利用
現存接近地殼表面嘅熱原點

219
00:12:57,472 --> 00:12:59,743
但係只係局限於呢啲地方

220
00:13:00,809 --> 00:13:06,310
喺 ETS 實驗系統之中
會鑽兩條六英里深嘅坑道

221
00:13:06,310 --> 00:13:09,557
水會灌入其中一條坑道
喺地心中加熱

222
00:13:09,557 --> 00:13:12,521
蒸氣沿住另外一條坑道上升
藉此發電

223
00:13:13,091 --> 00:13:15,300
麻省理工學院最近嘅一份報告預計

224
00:13:15,301 --> 00:13:21,181
呢個技術喺 2050 年
可以提供美國 10% 嘅電

225
00:13:22,091 --> 00:13:25,333
潮汐發電只係限於沿海地方

226
00:13:25,333 --> 00:13:29,400
而且海浪嘅能量密度
因為唔同地方而唔同

227
00:13:30,484 --> 00:13:34,832
要潮汐產生嘅電
傳送到內陸地區係一個難道

228
00:13:34,832 --> 00:13:38,992
仲有海水鹽份高會容易腐蝕渦輪

229
00:13:40,504 --> 00:13:42,848
生物燃料就係可以種植嘅燃料

230
00:13:43,095 --> 00:13:46,445
樹木生長緩慢而且能量密度低

231
00:13:46,445 --> 00:13:50,388
全球每年耗用 3 .7 立方英里嘅木材

232
00:13:51,337 --> 00:13:54,307
生物柴油同埋乙醇係喺穀物製造出嚟

233
00:13:54,307 --> 00:13:57,373
但係農業都會消耗石油

234
00:13:57,373 --> 00:14:00,792
呢啲燃料嘅能量效益亦都非常低

235
00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:04,451
有啲政治家提議用粟米做乙醇

236
00:14:05,231 --> 00:14:10,758
但係如果要喺 2020 年以乙醇供應
美國預計石油用量嘅十分之一

237
00:14:10,758 --> 00:14:13,603
就需要 3% 美國嘅土地

238
00:14:14,494 --> 00:14:15,931
如果要供應三分一嘅用量

239
00:14:15,931 --> 00:14:19,771
就需要現時三倍種植糧食嘅土地

240
00:14:19,771 --> 00:14:23,713
如果要喺 2020 年
用乙醇供應美國所有嘅石油需求

241
00:14:23,713 --> 00:14:27,320
就需要種植糧食土地嘅兩倍面積

242
00:14:29,182 --> 00:14:33,920
因為氫要喺天然氣、煤
或者水裏邊提取

243
00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:37,397
所耗費嘅能量比從氫上面獲得嘅重要多

244
00:14:37,397 --> 00:14:40,170
人類唔係幾可能用氫做原料推動經濟

245
00:14:42,030 --> 00:14:45,625
全球所有嘅太陽能電池板
可以產生嘅能量

246
00:14:45,625 --> 00:14:48,050
只係相等於兩間燃煤發電廠

247
00:14:48,460 --> 00:14:50,460
而且要製作一塊太陽能板

248
00:14:50,460 --> 00:14:54,600
就需要相等於一至到四噸煤嘅能量

249
00:14:56,100 --> 00:14:59,050
要以太陽能發電供應現時全球用電量

250
00:14:59,050 --> 00:15:02,118
就需要十四萬平方英里面積嘅太陽能板

251
00:15:02,810 --> 00:15:04,220
但係截至 2007 年

252
00:15:04,220 --> 00:15:07,070
全球只係有四平方英里面積嘅太陽能板

253
00:15:08,380 --> 00:15:12,912
集中太陽能發電或者叫做太陽熱能發電
有好大嘅發展潛力

254
00:15:12,912 --> 00:15:16,510
但係現時只有少數呢類型嘅發電廠

255
00:15:17,420 --> 00:15:19,570
而且呢個技術亦都局限於陽光充沛嘅地方

256
00:15:19,570 --> 00:15:24,310
噉樣牽涉將大量電力遠距離輸送

257
00:15:25,874 --> 00:15:29,888
所有替代能源
都依賴以石油推動嘅機械

258
00:15:29,888 --> 00:15:34,101
或者需要使用石油產品
譬如塑膠

259
00:15:35,537 --> 00:15:39,100
當考慮一項新燃料或者發明
是否可行嘅時候

260
00:15:39,100 --> 00:15:40,692
我哋應該提出以下嘅問題

261
00:15:40,692 --> 00:15:44,420
呢樣發明有冇一個運作緊嘅商業型號？

262
00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:46,985
佢嘅能量密度有幾多？

263
00:15:47,500 --> 00:15:50,138
容唔容易存放同埋輸送？

264
00:15:50,724 --> 00:15:53,003
佢嘅供應係唔係穩定？

265
00:15:53,463 --> 00:15:56,210
呢個可唔可以擴展到國家層面？

266
00:15:56,690 --> 00:15:58,840
有冇隱藏嘅技術問題？

267
00:15:59,510 --> 00:16:01,615
EROEI 係幾多？

268
00:16:02,095 --> 00:16:04,410
對環境有咩影響？

269
00:16:04,901 --> 00:16:07,850
請謹記
大數字可以係誤導性

270
00:16:07,850 --> 00:16:10,520
譬如十億桶石油好似好多

271
00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:14,138
但係其實只可以滿足
十二日嘅全球石油需求

272
00:16:15,058 --> 00:16:19,000
由化石燃料轉用到其他燃料嘅過程
係相當大嘅挑戰

273
00:16:19,170 --> 00:16:24,957
截至 2007 年美國用電量中
48.5% 源自燃煤

274
00:16:24,957 --> 00:16:30,419
21.6% 天然氣
1.6% 石油

275
00:16:30,419 --> 00:16:35,056
19.4% 核能
5.8% 水力

276
00:16:35,056 --> 00:16:39,120
而可再生能源就只係
提供 2.5% 嘅能量

277
00:16:39,767 --> 00:16:41,955
各式各樣嘅替代能源

278
00:16:41,955 --> 00:16:46,170
究竟可唔可以取代現時
以化石能源做基礎嘅系統？

279
00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:48,430
要達成呢個目標

280
00:16:48,430 --> 00:16:52,200
就需要技術上嘅重大突破
政客意願同合作

281
00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:55,890
仲有大型投資、國際共識

282
00:16:56,050 --> 00:16:59,653
同埋 45 萬億環球經濟改造

283
00:16:59,653 --> 00:17:05,251
當中包括交通、經濟就業、農業系統

284
00:17:05,251 --> 00:17:09,030
同埋可以勝任嘅公職人員去監控轉型

285
00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:14,573
係唔係可以做到以上幾點
宜家嘅生活方式就可以繼續落去呢？

286
00:17:19,860 --> 00:17:20,730
( 增長 )

287
00:17:21,117 --> 00:17:23,468
呢啲細菌喺一個樽裏面生活

288
00:17:23,468 --> 00:17:25,950
數量每分鐘增長一倍

289
00:17:26,780 --> 00:17:29,300
即係早上十一點仲係只有一個細菌

290
00:17:29,797 --> 00:17:32,260
但係十二點細菌嘅數量
就增加到足以佔據整個樽

291
00:17:32,801 --> 00:17:35,295
喺十一點五十九分，樽都係半滿嘅

292
00:17:35,295 --> 00:17:38,205
只係可以容納多一次嘅倍增

293
00:17:38,800 --> 00:17:40,703
細菌發現空間唔夠

294
00:17:40,703 --> 00:17:42,033
就去搵新嘅樽

295
00:17:42,033 --> 00:17:44,056
佢哋搵到三個

296
00:17:44,056 --> 00:17:47,083
佢哋認為已經解決問題
於是繼續繁殖

297
00:17:47,083 --> 00:17:49,770
但係十二點
第一個樽滿咗

298
00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:53,136
跟住十二點零一分
第二個樽滿咗

299
00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:57,240
十二點零二分
第三、四個樽都滿咗，所有嘅樽都滿曬

300
00:17:57,900 --> 00:18:00,128
我哋就同呢啲細菌面臨同樣嘅問題

301
00:18:00,128 --> 00:18:03,240
我哋以幾何級數增長緊

302
00:18:06,061 --> 00:18:09,650
當人類開始使用煤同石油做燃料

303
00:18:09,650 --> 00:18:12,610
使用量就面對前所未有嘅增幅

304
00:18:13,649 --> 00:18:17,436
就算低嘅增長率
隨住時間亦都會變成巨大嘅增長

305
00:18:18,490 --> 00:18:20,340
譬如經濟如果有 1% 嘅增長率

306
00:18:20,340 --> 00:18:23,050
70 年之後就會增長一倍

307
00:18:23,420 --> 00:18:27,047
如果有 2% 嘅增長率
只係需要 35 年就增長一倍

308
00:18:27,087 --> 00:18:29,264
如果 10% 嘅增長率

309
00:18:29,264 --> 00:18:32,520
只係需要 7 年就增長一倍

310
00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:36,750
如果經濟以最近平均 3% 嘅增長率增長

311
00:18:36,750 --> 00:18:39,930
23 年之後就會增長一倍

312
00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:47,079
每一次嘅倍增對能量同資源嘅需求
都會超過之前所有倍增嘅總數

313
00:18:48,079 --> 00:18:51,739
金融系統建基於對增長嘅假設

314
00:18:51,739 --> 00:18:55,778
而增長需要不斷增加嘅能源

315
00:18:56,510 --> 00:18:58,469
銀行借出佢哋冇嘅錢

316
00:18:58,469 --> 00:19:00,600
去製造真正嘅金錢

317
00:19:00,850 --> 00:19:04,816
借貸人用借嚟嘅錢去發展佢哋嘅生意

318
00:19:04,816 --> 00:19:06,200
然後還債

319
00:19:06,204 --> 00:19:09,834
當中嘅利息需要生意增長先至可以繳付

320
00:19:10,500 --> 00:19:13,019
對於呢個由借貸去製造財富嘅方式

321
00:19:13,019 --> 00:19:17,786
可以見到世界多數嘅金錢都代表咗
一筆待付利息嘅借貸

322
00:19:19,056 --> 00:19:22,990
如果冇持續增長嘅新借貸人

323
00:19:22,990 --> 00:19:25,890
去支持呢啲增長，付清呢啲借貸

324
00:19:25,890 --> 00:19:28,220
環球經濟將會崩潰

325
00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:31,148
就好似龐氐計劃噉

326
00:19:31,148 --> 00:19:34,378
呢個系統只有兩條路
擴充或者滅亡

327
00:19:35,290 --> 00:19:37,500
我哋之所以有咁可觀嘅經濟增長

328
00:19:37,500 --> 00:19:40,430
部分要歸功於呢個借貸系統

329
00:19:40,430 --> 00:19:41,680
令好似國內生產總值

330
00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:46,476
河流水利、用水、肥料消耗

331
00:19:46,476 --> 00:19:51,292
城市人口、用紙、車輛

332
00:19:51,292 --> 00:19:54,298
傳訊同埋旅遊業都有唔錯嘅發展

333
00:19:54,608 --> 00:19:57,453
全球人口已經增加到 70 億

334
00:19:57,453 --> 00:20:01,189
預計喺 2050 年將會突破 90 億

335
00:20:02,041 --> 00:20:05,600
如果地球係平嘅而且有無限嘅空間
呢個唔係問題

336
00:20:05,790 --> 00:20:08,686
但其實地球係一個球體、空間有限

337
00:20:08,686 --> 00:20:11,726
我哋終會面對增長嘅限制

338
00:20:13,084 --> 00:20:16,422
經濟擴充令好多污染物增加

339
00:20:16,422 --> 00:20:19,110
包括大氣中嘅氮氧化物、甲烷含量

340
00:20:19,110 --> 00:20:23,642
臭氧層變薄，嚴重水災更加多

341
00:20:23,642 --> 00:20:27,953
海洋生態系統受損，氮數下降

342
00:20:28,213 --> 00:20:30,759
熱帶雨林樹林面積減少

343
00:20:30,759 --> 00:20:33,110
農地增加

344
00:20:33,110 --> 00:20:35,357
同埋生物物種滅絕

345
00:20:38,001 --> 00:20:42,437
如果將一粒米放喺棋盤上第一格

346
00:20:42,437 --> 00:20:45,790
喺第二格放兩倍嘅米粒

347
00:20:45,790 --> 00:20:49,000
第三格再倍增放四粒

348
00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:51,190
第四再加多倍放八粒

349
00:20:51,190 --> 00:20:52,650
用呢個方法繼續落去

350
00:20:52,650 --> 00:20:57,101
每一次放嘅比前面嗰格多一倍嘅米粒

351
00:20:57,111 --> 00:20:58,831
當我哋放到最後一格

352
00:20:58,831 --> 00:21:01,791
我哋需要天文數字嘅米粒

353
00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:05,215
9 個一百萬嘅三次方

354
00:21:05,215 --> 00:21:07,425
223 個十萬三次方

355
00:21:07,425 --> 00:21:16,455
3,723,608 億 5,477 萬 6 千粒米粒

356
00:21:16,933 --> 00:21:21,048
比人類喺過去一萬年
種出嚟嘅米粒仲要多

357
00:21:22,668 --> 00:21:25,328
現代經濟就好似橫盤上面嘅米粒噉樣

358
00:21:25,347 --> 00:21:27,300
每十年多一倍

359
00:21:27,700 --> 00:21:30,690
我哋宜家係喺增長嘅第幾個階段呢？

360
00:21:33,337 --> 00:21:34,759
除咗能源之外

361
00:21:34,759 --> 00:21:37,969
文明仲需要各種必要資源

362
00:21:37,969 --> 00:21:44,629
乾淨水、表土、食物、森林
各種礦物同埋金屬

363
00:21:45,087 --> 00:21:46,920
因為必要資源供應少

364
00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:49,208
所以增長有限

365
00:21:50,970 --> 00:21:52,313
譬如一個木桶係好多塊木板造出嚟

366
00:21:52,313 --> 00:21:54,978
當水注入個桶到

367
00:21:54,978 --> 00:21:57,792
水位唔可以高過最短一條木嘅高度

368
00:21:57,792 --> 00:22:01,080
呢個正好比喻增長係受制於
最有限嘅必要資源

369
00:22:02,260 --> 00:22:06,861
人類用緊地球 40% 嘅光合作用

370
00:22:07,261 --> 00:22:09,737
當然我哋可以進一步用到 80%

371
00:22:09,737 --> 00:22:13,680
但係唔可能用到 160%

372
00:22:22,932 --> 00:22:24,072
( 糧食 )

373
00:22:26,702 --> 00:22:30,580
全球食物供應非常依賴化石燃料

374
00:22:31,750 --> 00:22:33,040
喺第一次世界大戰前

375
00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:36,040
所有農業都係有機耕作

376
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:39,934
發明咗化石燃料副產品嘅肥料
同埋殺蟲劑之後

377
00:22:39,934 --> 00:22:42,580
食品生產有好大嘅進步

378
00:22:42,580 --> 00:22:45,440
於是人口可以增加

379
00:22:47,555 --> 00:22:53,961
人造肥料耕作比用有機耕種
養活咗多更多人

380
00:22:55,770 --> 00:23:02,101
農業機器、運輸、冷藏、塑膠包裝、煮食

381
00:23:02,101 --> 00:23:04,280
都需要用到化石燃料

382
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:08,878
現代農業利用土地
將化石燃料轉化為食物

383
00:23:08,878 --> 00:23:10,680
然後供俾人類

384
00:23:11,694 --> 00:23:13,920
要製造食物中嘅 1 卡路里

385
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:17,060
就需要化石燃料中 7 個卡路里

386
00:23:19,060 --> 00:23:25,012
喺美國，由農田到消費者
食物需要運輸差唔多 1,500 英里

387
00:23:29,593 --> 00:23:30,957
現今嘅食物生產系統

388
00:23:30,957 --> 00:23:33,350
除咗要面對化石燃料
產量下跌嘅問題之外

389
00:23:33,350 --> 00:23:35,373
亦都要面對種種威脅

390
00:23:35,373 --> 00:23:38,797
廉價能源、科技進步、津貼

391
00:23:38,797 --> 00:23:41,649
都令到人類可以大規模捕魚

392
00:23:42,741 --> 00:23:46,048
全球漁獲喺 1980 年代末達到頂峰

393
00:23:46,048 --> 00:23:49,118
漁民被迫去更深嘅水域捉魚

394
00:23:52,803 --> 00:23:55,716
用化石燃料做嘅肥料裏邊含有氮素

395
00:23:55,716 --> 00:23:57,630
呢啲有毒物質流入河流同埋海洋之後

396
00:23:57,630 --> 00:23:59,886
造成大面積嘅死亡地帶

397
00:24:00,286 --> 00:24:01,531
按住呢個速度

398
00:24:01,531 --> 00:24:05,930
預計喺 2048 年所有捕魚量將會大跌

399
00:24:06,761 --> 00:24:11,151
城市同埋工廠產生嘅酸雨
奪走泥土重要嘅養分

400
00:24:11,151 --> 00:24:14,441
譬如鉀、鈣同埋鎂

401
00:24:17,717 --> 00:24:20,245
另一個重大危機係缺乏水源

402
00:24:20,505 --> 00:24:25,200
好多農場都用抽取地下水灌溉

403
00:24:26,050 --> 00:24:28,891
地下水源需要上千年先至注滿

404
00:24:28,891 --> 00:24:31,042
但佢哋係喺幾十年內就被抽乾

405
00:24:31,042 --> 00:24:32,600
就同油井一樣

406
00:24:33,509 --> 00:24:36,911
美國巨型嘅 Ogallala 地下水層
水量跌至低位

407
00:24:36,911 --> 00:24:41,080
好多農民都要用返
生產力較低嘅旱田耕種

408
00:24:41,776 --> 00:24:46,540
另外，灌溉同埋用肥料
會引致鹽化作用

409
00:24:46,540 --> 00:24:49,000
即係泥土上面累積鹽分

410
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:51,690
呢個係沙漠化嘅主因

411
00:24:53,078 --> 00:24:56,100
另一個威脅係表土流失

412
00:24:56,460 --> 00:25:00,662
200 年前喺美國嘅大草原
有六英呎厚嘅表土

413
00:25:00,952 --> 00:25:03,923
但今時今日由於耕作同埋不良保養

414
00:25:03,923 --> 00:25:06,333
差唔多一半嘅表土冇咗

415
00:25:08,310 --> 00:25:11,733
另外灌溉促使同植物稈銹病
相關嘅真菌生長

416
00:25:11,733 --> 00:25:13,330
譬如 UG-99

417
00:25:13,330 --> 00:25:18,000
UG-99 能夠阻止世界 80% 嘅穀物收成

418
00:25:18,550 --> 00:25:20,740
綠色革命 Green Revolution 之父

419
00:25:20,740 --> 00:25:22,338
Norman Borlaug 指出

420
00:25:22,338 --> 00:25:27,152
稈銹病好大可能
對社會同埋人類造成破壞

421
00:25:29,269 --> 00:25:34,204
另外使用生物燃料會令到
可以做生產糧食嘅土地減少

422
00:25:36,474 --> 00:25:39,200
一塊地有有限嘅承載力

423
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:43,763
即係指可以喺上面
永久生存嘅動物同埋人類嘅數量

424
00:25:44,013 --> 00:25:47,494
如果一個物種嘅數量
大過一塊土地嘅承載力

425
00:25:47,494 --> 00:25:51,790
嗰個物種會有部分死亡
令到數量返去正常範圍

426
00:25:52,619 --> 00:25:54,167
人類為咗阻止呢種情況嘅出現

427
00:25:54,167 --> 00:25:58,255
就搵新土地去種植糧食或者增加產量

428
00:25:58,265 --> 00:26:01,340
依啲都係因為有石油先至可以做到

429
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:03,948
如果要繼續增長

430
00:26:03,948 --> 00:26:07,198
我哋需要更多資源
但呢個超出咗地球嘅能力

431
00:26:07,198 --> 00:26:10,090
但同時我哋只有一個地球

432
00:26:11,079 --> 00:26:13,180
面對種種因難

433
00:26:13,180 --> 00:26:14,791
喺 2050 年前全球食物生產

434
00:26:14,791 --> 00:26:19,130
必須增長一倍
先至可以養活增加緊嘅世界人口

435
00:26:20,694 --> 00:26:23,974
宜家已經有十億人
營養不良或者處於飢餓中

436
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:27,890
喺將來要面對超過九十億人嘅糧食問題

437
00:26:27,904 --> 00:26:32,090
但係世界嘅石油
同埋天然氣生產將會下跌

438
00:26:40,477 --> 00:26:41,827
( 快樂結局 )

439
00:26:45,698 --> 00:26:50,016
世界嘅經濟以指數式增長每年大約 3%

440
00:26:50,016 --> 00:26:55,000
消耗愈嚟愈多
非再生能源、礦物質同埋金屬

441
00:26:55,000 --> 00:27:00,170
仲有再生能源
好似水、森林、泥土同埋魚類

442
00:27:00,170 --> 00:27:02,815
耗用速度比再生速度快

443
00:27:03,510 --> 00:27:05,574
即使增長率只有 1%

444
00:27:05,574 --> 00:27:08,480
經濟會喺 70 年內增長一倍

445
00:27:09,676 --> 00:27:12,968
以下因素令問題更加嚴重

446
00:27:12,968 --> 00:27:18,880
全球化令到人可以買到
另一個大陸嘅貨品同埋食物

447
00:27:19,110 --> 00:27:21,055
運輸距離好長

448
00:27:21,055 --> 00:27:24,281
對已經有限嘅石油資源造成壓力

449
00:27:26,057 --> 00:27:29,663
我哋宜家嘅生活必需品
依賴遙遠國家供給

450
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:33,040
現代城市都依賴化石燃料

451
00:27:33,803 --> 00:27:36,670
多數銀行系統都以借貸為基礎

452
00:27:36,670 --> 00:27:40,309
迫使人類借貸同埋還款

453
00:27:40,309 --> 00:27:41,930
從而促使增長

454
00:27:43,055 --> 00:27:45,940
面對呢啲問題我哋可以做嘜嘢呢？

455
00:27:46,399 --> 00:27:48,190
好多人相信要解決呢個危機

456
00:27:48,190 --> 00:27:51,380
我哋可以透過環境保護、科技

457
00:27:51,380 --> 00:27:53,810
精明增長、回收

458
00:27:53,810 --> 00:27:55,890
使用電動車、混合動力車

459
00:27:55,890 --> 00:27:58,760
用代替品或者投票等方法

460
00:27:59,481 --> 00:28:01,450
環境保育可以節省金錢

461
00:28:01,450 --> 00:28:03,900
但係單靠保育唔可以拯救地球

462
00:28:04,650 --> 00:28:07,350
如果一啲人減少使用石油

463
00:28:07,350 --> 00:28:09,831
需求減少會降低售價

464
00:28:09,831 --> 00:28:12,477
令到其他人可以用低價買石油

465
00:28:12,740 --> 00:28:15,621
同樣，一個效益高嘅引擎

466
00:28:15,621 --> 00:28:17,181
雖然可以用少啲能量

467
00:28:17,181 --> 00:28:20,900
但係好諷刺噉提高咗能量使用

468
00:28:21,540 --> 00:28:25,586
十九世紀英國經濟學家
William Stanley Jevons

469
00:28:25,586 --> 00:28:27,661
發現性能較好嘅蒸氣引擎

470
00:28:27,661 --> 00:28:30,731
可以令煤更有燃料效益

471
00:28:30,731 --> 00:28:33,417
令到蒸氣引擎嘅使用量增加

472
00:28:33,417 --> 00:28:36,320
而用煤量亦都因此而上升

473
00:28:37,087 --> 00:28:38,367
使用量上升

474
00:28:38,367 --> 00:28:43,117
會消耗保育得嚟嘅能量或者資源

475
00:28:47,449 --> 00:28:48,560
好多人相信

476
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:52,190
科學家可以用新嘅技術解決呢啲問題

477
00:28:52,190 --> 00:28:55,105
但係技術唔係能量

478
00:28:55,838 --> 00:28:57,900
技術冇錯可以將能量轉化

479
00:28:57,901 --> 00:28:59,710
但係唔可以取代能量

480
00:29:00,220 --> 00:29:02,562
而且科技亦都耗用資源

481
00:29:02,562 --> 00:29:04,452
例如製造電腦

482
00:29:04,452 --> 00:29:08,142
就用咗製造一架車所需要十分一嘅能量

483
00:29:08,872 --> 00:29:12,402
更先進嘅科技或者會令問題惡化

484
00:29:12,410 --> 00:29:14,488
呢個因為先進科技需要稀有礦物質

485
00:29:14,488 --> 00:29:16,738
呢啲稀有礦物質都就嚟用曬

486
00:29:16,908 --> 00:29:22,062
例如世界 97% 嘅稀土由中國生產

487
00:29:22,062 --> 00:29:25,270
而且大多數係產於內蒙古一個礦場

488
00:29:26,500 --> 00:29:30,903
呢啲礦物用於做催化轉換器、飛機引擎

489
00:29:30,903 --> 00:29:33,492
高效能磁石、硬碟

490
00:29:33,492 --> 00:29:36,340
混合汽車電池、激光

491
00:29:36,340 --> 00:29:41,793
手提 X 光、核反應堆屏障、光碟

492
00:29:41,793 --> 00:29:46,551
混合汽車摩打、慳電膽、光纖

493
00:29:46,551 --> 00:29:48,511
同埋平面顯示器

494
00:29:49,453 --> 00:29:51,623
因為需求急升

495
00:29:51,623 --> 00:29:54,923
中國宜家開始考慮限制呢啲金屬出口

496
00:29:56,823 --> 00:29:59,841
呢啲所謂可持續增長或者精明增長

497
00:29:59,841 --> 00:30:01,121
根本係於事無補

498
00:30:01,121 --> 00:30:03,395
因為佢哋只會愈嚟愈用得多

499
00:30:03,395 --> 00:30:05,875
非再生嘅金屬同埋礦物質

500
00:30:05,875 --> 00:30:07,517
包括稀土

501
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:10,291
回收唔會解決問題

502
00:30:10,291 --> 00:30:11,582
因為呢啲都需要能量

503
00:30:11,583 --> 00:30:14,520
而且過程都唔係 100% 有效率

504
00:30:16,010 --> 00:30:19,930
呢個只能夠回收一部分嘅物料

505
00:30:20,370 --> 00:30:23,200
好大部分都係廢料

506
00:30:25,056 --> 00:30:27,740
電動車係用電推動嘅

507
00:30:28,054 --> 00:30:30,557
由於電多數係由化石燃料而嚟

508
00:30:30,557 --> 00:30:32,460
呢個唔係解決辦法

509
00:30:33,095 --> 00:30:37,270
而且所有車嘅製作過程中都會用到石油

510
00:30:37,270 --> 00:30:41,200
單係一個車胎就係用咗大約七加侖原油

511
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:47,423
喺 2010 年，世界有大約八十億架車

512
00:30:47,813 --> 00:30:49,042
以最近嘅增長率計

513
00:30:49,042 --> 00:30:53,040
2025 年會有二十億架車

514
00:30:53,510 --> 00:30:56,501
唔理車嘅動力來源

515
00:30:56,501 --> 00:31:00,050
地球都冇可能長期支持咁多架車

516
00:31:00,941 --> 00:31:02,371
好多經濟學家相信

517
00:31:02,371 --> 00:31:04,500
自由市場可以透過創新科技

518
00:31:04,500 --> 00:31:08,046
用一種能源去代替另一種能源

519
00:31:08,046 --> 00:31:12,311
但係石油最主要嘅替代能源
都面臨自身數量嘅下降

520
00:31:13,311 --> 00:31:19,122
而且代替方法並冇考慮
要去準備轉變嘅過度期

521
00:31:19,590 --> 00:31:22,543
美國能源部嘅報告預計

522
00:31:22,543 --> 00:31:25,233
要準備應對石油頂峰嘅影響

523
00:31:25,233 --> 00:31:27,420
就要花最少二十年時間

524
00:31:28,620 --> 00:31:31,140
能源短缺

525
00:31:31,140 --> 00:31:33,198
資源缺乏

526
00:31:33,198 --> 00:31:34,990
表土流失

527
00:31:34,990 --> 00:31:36,670
同埋污染問題

528
00:31:36,670 --> 00:31:41,680
都係增長呢個大問題所引伸

529
00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:46,783
如果我哋嘅金融系統仍然需要
不斷增長先至可以維持

530
00:31:46,783 --> 00:31:49,560
噉樣改革係唔可能成功嘅

531
00:31:49,847 --> 00:31:52,372
咁未來會係點？

532
00:31:53,663 --> 00:31:58,444
樂觀者相信增長會永遠繼續，冇上限

533
00:31:59,014 --> 00:32:04,071
但係負面者就認為人類正邁向
新石器時代，或者滅絕

534
00:32:04,651 --> 00:32:07,447
真相可能喺呢兩個極端之間

535
00:32:08,207 --> 00:32:11,964
或者社會會倒退到簡單嘅模式

536
00:32:12,100 --> 00:32:14,792
用好少能源

537
00:32:15,649 --> 00:32:18,095
但係噉樣多數人要過更艱難嘅生活

538
00:32:18,095 --> 00:32:19,478
社會將需要好多人力

539
00:32:19,478 --> 00:32:20,917
更多耕作

540
00:32:20,917 --> 00:32:24,691
更多本地貨品、食物、服務嘅生產

541
00:32:24,919 --> 00:32:28,730
個人應該做啲咩去迎接噉樣嘅未來？

542
00:32:29,073 --> 00:32:33,872
要有心理準備
喺遠處而嚟嘅食物、物品將會減少供應

543
00:32:34,034 --> 00:32:35,982
要開始行路或者踩單車

544
00:32:36,350 --> 00:32:39,079
要習慣減少用電

545
00:32:39,699 --> 00:32:40,960
唔再借錢

546
00:32:41,420 --> 00:32:42,963
唔用銀行服務

547
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:46,180
唔去大商場買嘢

548
00:32:46,180 --> 00:32:48,345
反而係支持本地商店

549
00:32:48,345 --> 00:32:51,990
購買本地食材，好似喺農莊度買噉

550
00:32:51,990 --> 00:32:55,447
或者自己種食物

551
00:32:55,450 --> 00:32:57,330
同埋學會保存食物

552
00:32:57,910 --> 00:33:03,060
當大型經濟唔再運作
就可以用本地貨幣

553
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:05,820
同埋培養知足嘅心態

554
00:33:06,716 --> 00:33:09,500
以上方法雖然唔可以阻止崩潰

555
00:33:09,500 --> 00:33:11,800
但可以俾到你喺能源缺乏嘅未來

556
00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:13,191
更多有利嘅條件

557
00:33:13,191 --> 00:33:16,107
我哋更需要靠自己嘅力量

558
00:33:16,107 --> 00:33:18,777
就好似我哋嘅祖先曾經一樣