[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:07.12,0:00:11.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Incubate Pictures presents
Dialogue: 0,0:00:14.00,0:00:19.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In association with Post Carbon Institute
Dialogue: 0,0:00:23.03,0:00:30.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's No Tomorrow
Dialogue: 0,0:00:47.08,0:00:49.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the Earth,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:49.06,0:00:51.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as it looked 90 million years ago.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:51.34,0:00:55.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Geologists call this period the 'Late Cretaceous'.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:55.09,0:00:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was a time of extreme global warming,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.50,0:01:00.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When dinosaurs still ruled the planet.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:01.10,0:01:02.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They went about their lives,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.80,0:01:05.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,secure in their place at the top of the food chain,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.50,0:01:10.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,oblivious of the changes taking place around them.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:11.00,0:01:12.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The continents were drifting apart,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:12.35,0:01:15.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,opening huge rifts in the Earth's crust.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:15.70,0:01:18.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They flooded, becoming seas.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.04,0:01:22.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Algae thrived in the extreme heat,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:22.39,0:01:23.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,poisoning the water.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.20,0:01:26.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They died,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:26.50,0:01:28.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and fell, in their trillions, to the bottom of the rifts.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:32.03,0:01:34.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Rivers washed sediment into the seas,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:34.50,0:01:36.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,until the organic remains of the algae were buried.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:38.06,0:01:41.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As the pressure grew, so did the heat,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:41.02,0:01:43.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,until a chemical reaction transformed the organics
Dialogue: 0,0:01:43.42,0:01:45.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into hydrocarbon fossil fuels:
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.02,0:01:49.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Oil and Natural Gas.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.11,0:01:51.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A similar process occurred on land,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.64,0:01:53.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which produced coal.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:55.03,0:01:57.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It took nature about 5 million years
Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.40,0:02:01.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to create the fossil fuels that the world consumes in 1 year.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:02.06,0:02:03.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The modern way of life
Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.40,0:02:06.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is dependent on this fossilised sunlight,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:06.50,0:02:10.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,although a surprising number of people take it for granted.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:13.09,0:02:17.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Since 1860, geologists have discovered over 2 trillion barrels of oil.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.90,0:02:22.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Since then, the world has used approximately half.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:26.00,0:02:29.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Before you can pump oil, you have to discover it.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.00,0:02:33.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At first it was easy to find, and cheap to extract.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.06,0:02:36.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The first great American oilfield was Spindletop, .
Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.90,0:02:39.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,discovered in 1900
Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.04,0:02:40.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Many more followed.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:41.03,0:02:43.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Geologists scoured America.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:43.06,0:02:47.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They found enormous deposits of oil, natural gas and coal.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:48.04,0:02:51.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,America produced more oil than any other country,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.45,0:02:54.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,enabling it to become an industrial super-power.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.01,0:02:57.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Once an oil well starts producing oil,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:57.98,0:03:01.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's only a matter of time before it enters a decline.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:02.03,0:03:04.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Individual wells have different production rates.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.61,0:03:07.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When many wells are averaged together,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:07.20,0:03:09.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the combined graph looks like a bell curve.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:09.52,0:03:11.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Typically
Dialogue: 0,0:03:11.38,0:03:14.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it takes 40 years after the peak of discovery
Dialogue: 0,0:03:14.42,0:03:16.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for a country to reach its peak of production,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.32,0:03:19.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,after which it enters a permanent fall.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:20.95,0:03:22.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the 1950s,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:22.57,0:03:25.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Shell geophysicist M. King Hubbert
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.39,0:03:28.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,predicted that America's oil production would peak in 1970,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.81,0:03:32.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,40 years after the peak of U.S. oil discovery.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:33.05,0:03:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Few believed him.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:35.04,0:03:37.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,However, in 1970,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.06,0:03:39.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,American oil production peaked,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:39.06,0:03:41.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and entered a permanent decline.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.06,0:03:44.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Hubbert was vindicated.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:45.20,0:03:46.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,From this point on,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.16,0:03:49.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,America would depend increasingly on imported oil.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:50.06,0:03:53.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This made her vulnerable to supply disruptions,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:53.38,0:03:57.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and contributed to the economic mayhem of the 1973
Dialogue: 0,0:03:57.10,0:03:59.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and 1979 oil shocks.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.90,0:04:06.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The 1930s saw the highest rate of oil discoveries in U.S. history.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:06.20,0:04:07.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In spite of advanced technology,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.96,0:04:12.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the decline in the discovery of new american oilfields has been relentless.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:14.08,0:04:16.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,More recent finds, such as ANWAR,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:17.06,0:04:20.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would at best provide enough oil for 17 months.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:22.05,0:04:25.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Even the new "Jack 2" field in the gulf of Mexico
Dialogue: 0,0:04:25.22,0:04:28.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would only supply a few months of domestic demand.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:29.02,0:04:31.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Though large, neither field comes close to satisfying
Dialogue: 0,0:04:31.77,0:04:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,America's energy requirements.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:36.03,0:04:37.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Evidence is now mounting
Dialogue: 0,0:04:37.11,0:04:40.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that world oil production is peaking, or is close to it.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:41.09,0:04:46.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Globally, the rate of discovery of new oilfields peaked in the 1960s.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:46.90,0:04:47.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Over 40 years later,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:47.81,0:04:49.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the decline in the discovery of new fields
Dialogue: 0,0:04:50.00,0:04:51.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,seems unstoppable.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.01,0:04:56.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,54 of the 65 major oil producing nations
Dialogue: 0,0:04:56.50,0:04:58.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have already peaked in production.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.05,0:05:04.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Many of the others are expected to follow in the near future.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:06.10,0:05:07.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The world will need to bring the equivalent
Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.80,0:05:10.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of a new Saudi Arabia into production
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.15,0:05:10.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,every three years
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.95,0:05:14.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to make up for declining output in existing oilfields.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:15.90,0:05:16.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the nineteen sixties,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:16.65,0:05:20.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,six barrels of oil were found for every one that was used.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:21.10,0:05:22.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Four decades later,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:22.22,0:05:25.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the world consumes between three and six barrels of oil
Dialogue: 0,0:05:25.55,0:05:27.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for every one that it finds.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:29.03,0:05:31.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Once the peak of world oil production is reached,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:31.30,0:05:33.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,demand for oil will outstrip supply,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.89,0:05:36.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the price of gasoline will fluctuate wildly,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.27,0:05:39.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,affecting far more than the cost of filling a car.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:41.80,0:05:44.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Modern cities are fossil fuel dependent.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:44.20,0:05:46.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Even roads are made from asphalt,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:46.35,0:05:47.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a petroleum product,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:47.94,0:05:49.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as are the roofs of many homes.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:51.09,0:05:53.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Large areas would be uninhabitable
Dialogue: 0,0:05:53.14,0:05:57.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,without heating in the winter or air conditioning in the summer.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:58.09,0:06:00.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Suburban sprawl encourages people to drive many miles
Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.93,0:06:02.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to work, school and stores.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:04.04,0:06:06.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Major cities have been zoned with residential
Dialogue: 0,0:06:06.46,0:06:08.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and commercial areas placed far apart,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:08.73,0:06:10.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,forcing people to drive.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:11.07,0:06:12.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Suburbia, and many communities
Dialogue: 0,0:06:12.87,0:06:16.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were designed on the assumption of plentiful oil and energy.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:19.50,0:06:21.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Chemicals derived from fossil fuels,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:21.48,0:06:23.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or Petro-chemicals,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:23.24,0:06:24.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are essential in the manufacture of countless products.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:28.04,0:06:29.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The modern system of agriculture
Dialogue: 0,0:06:30.10,0:06:32.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is heavily dependent on fossil fuels,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:32.45,0:06:33.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as are hospitals,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:33.65,0:06:34.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,aviation,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:34.95,0:06:36.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,water distribution systems,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:37.00,0:06:38.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the U.S. military,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:38.22,0:06:42.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which alone uses about 140 million barrels of oil a year.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:44.00,0:06:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Fossil fuels are also essential for the creation of plastics and polymers,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:48.06,0:06:52.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,key ingredients in computers, entertainment devices and clothing.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:54.03,0:06:56.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The global economy currently depends on endless growth,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.95,0:07:01.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,demanding an increasing supply of cheap energy.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:01.30,0:07:04.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We are so dependant on oil and other fossil fuels,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:04.10,0:07:07.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that even a small disruption in supply
Dialogue: 0,0:07:07.15,0:07:10.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,may have far-reaching effects on every aspect of our lives.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:17.08,0:07:22.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ENERGY
Dialogue: 0,0:07:22.90,0:07:26.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Energy is the ability to do work.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:26.03,0:07:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The average American today has available the energy equivalent of 150 slaves, working 24 hours a day.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:36.00,0:07:39.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Materials that store this energy for work are called fuels,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:39.10,0:07:42.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Some fuels contain more energy than others.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:42.01,0:07:46.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is called energy density.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:46.04,0:07:50.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Of these fuels, oil is the most critical.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:50.01,0:07:51.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The world consumes 30 billion barrels a year,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.53,0:07:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,equal to 1 cubic mile of oil,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:54.90,0:07:56.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which contains as much energy
Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.40,0:07:58.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as would be generated from 52 nuclear power plants
Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.87,0:08:01.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,working for the next 50 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:03.01,0:08:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Although oil only generates 1.6% of U.S. electricity,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:07.57,0:08:10.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it powers 96% of all transportation.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:12.03,0:08:15.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In 2008, two thirds of America's oil was imported.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:16.40,0:08:17.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Most was from Canada,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:17.90,0:08:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Mexico,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:19.60,0:08:21.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Saudi Arabia,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:21.30,0:08:22.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Venezuela,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:22.74,0:08:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nigeria, Iraq and Angola.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:27.06,0:08:29.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Several factors make oil unique:
Dialogue: 0,0:08:29.36,0:08:31.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it is energy dense.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:33.03,0:08:34.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One barrel of oil contains the energy equivalent
Dialogue: 0,0:08:34.91,0:08:37.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of almost three years of human labour.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:38.50,0:08:39.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is liquid at room temperature,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:39.71,0:08:41.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,easy to transport
Dialogue: 0,0:08:41.84,0:08:44.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and usable in small engines.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:45.08,0:08:48.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To acquire energy, you have to use energy.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:49.00,0:08:53.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The trick is to use smaller amounts to find and extract larger amounts.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:53.21,0:08:55.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is called EROEI:
Dialogue: 0,0:08:55.62,0:08:59.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Energy Return on Energy Invested.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:01.50,0:09:04.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Conventional oil is a good example.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:04.01,0:09:07.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The easy to extract, high-quality crude was pumped first.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.90,0:09:14.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Oilmen spent the energy equivalent of 1 barrel of oil to find and extract 100.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:15.04,0:09:18.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The EROEI of oil was 100.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:19.09,0:09:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As the easy to find oil was pumped first,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:21.10,0:09:23.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,exploration moved into deep waters,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:23.95,0:09:25.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or distant countries,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:25.73,0:09:28.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,using increasing amounts of energy to do so.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:29.09,0:09:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Often, the oil we find now is heavy or sour crude,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:32.00,0:09:34.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and is expensive to refine.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:35.90,0:09:39.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The EROEI for oil today is as low as 10.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:40.03,0:09:43.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you use more energy to get the fuel than is contained in the fuel,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:43.83,0:09:46.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's not worth the effort to get it.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.01,0:09:52.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is possible to convert one fuel source into another.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.50,0:09:54.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Every time you do so,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:54.20,0:09:58.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,some of the energy contained in the original fuel is lost.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:59.03,0:10:00.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For instance, there is unconventional oil:
Dialogue: 0,0:10:00.95,0:10:03.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Tar Sands and Shale.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:04.03,0:10:06.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Tar Sands are found mainly in Canada.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:07.00,0:10:09.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Two thirds of the world's shale is in the US.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:11.09,0:10:13.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Both of these fuels can be converted to synthetic crude oil.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:13.61,0:10:17.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,However, this requires large amounts of heat and fresh water,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:17.10,0:10:18.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,reducing their EROEI,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:18.90,0:10:23.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which varies from five, to as low as one and a half.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:24.50,0:10:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Shale is an exceptionally poor fuel,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:26.20,0:10:29.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,pound for pound containing about one third the energy
Dialogue: 0,0:10:29.15,0:10:31.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of a box of breakfast cereal.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:33.03,0:10:34.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Coal exists in vast quantities,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:34.70,0:10:38.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and generates almost half of the planet's electricity.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:39.00,0:10:41.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The world uses almost 2 cubic miles of coal a year.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:41.50,0:10:46.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,However, Global coal production may peak before 2040.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:48.08,0:10:50.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The claim that America has centuries worth of coal is deceptive,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:50.75,0:10:55.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as it fails to account for growing demand, and decreasing quality.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:56.06,0:10:58.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Much of the high quality anthracite coal is gone,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:58.67,0:11:03.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,leaving lower quality coal that is less energy dense.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:04.06,0:11:06.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Production issues arise, as surface coal is depleted,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:06.70,0:11:10.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and miners have to dig deeper and in less accessible areas.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:11.10,0:11:14.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Many use destructive mountaintop removal to reach coal deposits,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:14.30,0:11:17.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,causing environmental mayhem.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:20.01,0:11:22.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Natural gas is often found alongside oil and coal.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:24.00,0:11:27.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,North American discovery of conventional gas peaked in the 1950s,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:27.40,0:11:30.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and production peaked in the early 70s.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:31.03,0:11:34.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If the discovery graph is moved forward by 23 years,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:34.12,0:11:38.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the possible future of North American conventional natural gas production
Dialogue: 0,0:11:38.60,0:11:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is revealed.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:41.04,0:11:44.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Recent breakthroughs have allowed the extraction of unconventional natural gas,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:44.79,0:11:50.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,such as shale gas, which might help offset decline in the years ahead.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:51.04,0:11:54.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Unconventional natural gas is controversial,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:54.20,0:11:57.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as it needs high energy prices to be profitable.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:58.06,0:11:59.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Even with Unconventional gas,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:59.75,0:12:05.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there may be a peak in global natural gas production by 2030.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:07.90,0:12:10.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Large uranium reserves for nuclear fission still exist.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:12.03,0:12:15.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To replace the 10 terawatts the world currently generates from fossil fuels,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:15.83,0:12:19.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would require 10,000 nuclear power plants.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:19.25,0:12:24.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At that rate, the known reserves of uranium would last for only 10 to 20 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:25.00,0:12:29.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Experiments with plutonium based fast-breeder reactors
Dialogue: 0,0:12:29.08,0:12:31.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in France and Japan
Dialogue: 0,0:12:31.11,0:12:33.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have been expensive failures.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:33.69,0:12:37.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nuclear fusion faces massive technical obstacles.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:39.02,0:12:40.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then there are the renewables.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:40.30,0:12:45.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Windpower has a high EROEI, but is intermittent.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:45.60,0:12:47.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Hydro power is reliable,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:47.40,0:12:50.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but most rivers in the developed world are already dammed.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:52.04,0:12:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Conventional geothermal power plants
Dialogue: 0,0:12:54.00,0:12:56.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,use existing hotspots near the Earth's surface.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:57.00,0:12:59.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They are limited to those areas.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:01.03,0:13:02.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the experimental EGS system,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:02.75,0:13:06.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,two shafts would be drilled 6 miles deep.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:06.04,0:13:09.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Water is pumped down one shaft, to be heated in fissures,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:09.17,0:13:12.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then rise up the other, generating power.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:13.09,0:13:15.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,According to a recent MIT report,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:15.30,0:13:21.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this technology might supply 10% of US electricity by 2050.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:22.09,0:13:25.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Wave power is restricted to coastal areas.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:25.33,0:13:29.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The energy density of waves varies from region to region.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:31.01,0:13:35.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Transporting wave-generated electricity inland would be challenging.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:35.09,0:13:38.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Also, the salty ocean environment is corrosive to turbines.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:41.00,0:13:42.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Biofuels are fuels that are grown.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:43.10,0:13:46.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Wood has a low energy density, and grows slowly.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:46.44,0:13:49.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The world uses 3.7 cubic miles of wood a year.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:51.44,0:13:52.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Biodiesel and ethanol
Dialogue: 0,0:13:52.92,0:13:57.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are made from crops grown by petroleum powered agriculture.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:57.50,0:14:00.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The energy profit from these fuels is very low.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:02.01,0:14:05.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Some politicians want to turn corn into ethanol.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:05.09,0:14:10.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Using Ethanol to supply one tenth of projected US oil use in 2020,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:10.21,0:14:13.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would require 3% of America's Land.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:15.01,0:14:19.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To supply one third would require 3 times the area now used to grow food.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:20.03,0:14:23.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To supply all US petroleum consumption in 2020
Dialogue: 0,0:14:23.33,0:14:27.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would take twice as much land as is used to grow food.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:28.86,0:14:33.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Hydrogen has to be extracted from Natural Gas, coal or water,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:33.50,0:14:36.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which uses more energy than we get from the Hydrogen.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:36.92,0:14:39.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This makes a Hydrogen economy unlikely.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:42.50,0:14:45.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,All the world's photovoltaic solar panels generate as much electricity
Dialogue: 0,0:14:45.62,0:14:47.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as two coal power plants.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:48.80,0:14:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The equivalent of between 1 and 4 tons of coal
Dialogue: 0,0:14:51.00,0:14:54.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are used in the manufacture of a single solar panel.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:56.10,0:15:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We'd have to cover as many as 140,000 square miles with panels
Dialogue: 0,0:15:00.00,0:15:02.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to meet current world demand.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:02.30,0:15:06.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As of 2007, there are only about 4 square miles.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:08.60,0:15:12.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Concentrated Solar Power, or Solar Thermal has great potential,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:12.04,0:15:16.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,though at the moment there are only a small number of plants operating.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:17.90,0:15:19.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They are also limited to sunny climates,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:19.30,0:15:21.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,requiring large amounts of electricity
Dialogue: 0,0:15:21.50,0:15:24.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be transmitted over long distances.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:26.05,0:15:29.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,All of the alternatives to oil depend on oil-powered machinery,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:29.46,0:15:34.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or require materials such as plastics that are produced from oil.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:36.04,0:15:38.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When considering future claims of amazing new fuels or inventions,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:38.90,0:15:40.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ask:
Dialogue: 0,0:15:40.09,0:15:44.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Does the advocate have a working, commercial model of the invention?
Dialogue: 0,0:15:45.00,0:15:46.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What is its energy density?
Dialogue: 0,0:15:47.50,0:15:49.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Can it be stored or easily distributed?
Dialogue: 0,0:15:51.00,0:15:53.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Is it reliable or intermittent?
Dialogue: 0,0:15:53.08,0:15:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Can it be scaled to a national level?
Dialogue: 0,0:15:56.30,0:15:58.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Are there hidden engineering challenges?
Dialogue: 0,0:15:59.80,0:16:02.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What is the EROEI?
Dialogue: 0,0:16:02.10,0:16:04.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What are the environmental impacts?
Dialogue: 0,0:16:04.90,0:16:07.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Remember that large numbers can be deceptive.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:08.04,0:16:09.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example: 1 billion barrels of oil
Dialogue: 0,0:16:09.90,0:16:13.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will satisfy global demand for only 12 days.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:15.06,0:16:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A transition from fossil fuels would be a monumental challenge.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:19.70,0:16:24.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As of 2007, coal generates 48.5% of U.S. electricity.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:24.42,0:16:27.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,21.6% is from natural gas,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:27.29,0:16:30.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,1.6% is from petroleum,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:30.22,0:16:32.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,19.4% is from nuclear,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:32.68,0:16:34.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,5.8% is from hydro.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:35.09,0:16:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Other renewables only generate 2.5%.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:40.04,0:16:43.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Is it possible to replace a system based on fossil fuels
Dialogue: 0,0:16:43.12,0:16:45.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with a patchwork of alternatives?
Dialogue: 0,0:16:46.40,0:16:48.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Major technological advances are needed,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:48.90,0:16:51.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as well as political will and co-operation,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:51.90,0:16:53.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,massive investment,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:53.54,0:16:55.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,international consensus,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:56.05,0:16:59.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the retrofitting of the $45 trillion global economy,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:59.30,0:17:01.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,including transportation,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:02.03,0:17:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,manufacturing industries,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:03.00,0:17:05.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and agricultural systems,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:05.08,0:17:08.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as well as officials competent to manage the transition.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:10.00,0:17:11.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If all these are achieved,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:11.52,0:17:14.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,could the current way of life continue?
Dialogue: 0,0:17:19.00,0:17:21.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Growth
Dialogue: 0,0:17:21.01,0:17:23.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These bacteria live in a bottle.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:24.01,0:17:25.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Their population doubles every minute.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:27.00,0:17:29.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At 11AM there is one bacterium.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:30.09,0:17:32.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At 12 noon the bottle is full.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:33.08,0:17:35.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is half-full at 11.59
Dialogue: 0,0:17:35.30,0:17:37.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,leaving only enough space for one more doubling.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:38.90,0:17:41.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The bacteria see the danger.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:41.03,0:17:44.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They search for new bottles, and find 3.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:44.06,0:17:47.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They assume that their problem is solved.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:47.08,0:17:49.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By 12 noon, the first bottle is full.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:50.00,0:17:53.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By 12.01, the second bottle is full.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:54.00,0:17:56.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By 12.02, all the bottles are full.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:57.90,0:17:59.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the problem that we face,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:59.93,0:18:03.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,due to the doubling caused by Exponential Growth.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:06.06,0:18:09.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When humanity began to use coal and oil as fuel sources,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:09.28,0:18:12.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it experienced unprecedented growth.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:14.03,0:18:17.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Even low growth rates produce large increases over time.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:18.60,0:18:20.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At a 1% growth rate,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:20.15,0:18:22.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an economy will double in 70 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:23.50,0:18:27.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A 2% rate doubles in 35 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:27.09,0:18:29.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At a 10% growth rate,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:29.26,0:18:32.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an economy will double in only 7 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:33.40,0:18:36.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If an economy grows at the current average of 3%,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:36.75,0:18:39.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it doubles every 23 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:40.60,0:18:44.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,With each doubling, demand for energy and resources
Dialogue: 0,0:18:44.02,0:18:47.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will exceed all the previous doublings combined.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:48.08,0:18:52.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The financial system is built on the assumption of growth
Dialogue: 0,0:18:52.05,0:18:55.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- which requires an increasing supply of energy to support it.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:56.70,0:18:58.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Banks lend money they don't have,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:58.47,0:19:00.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in effect creating it.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:01.00,0:19:04.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The borrowers use the newly created loan money to grow their businesses,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:04.82,0:19:06.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and pay back the debt,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:06.20,0:19:09.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with an interest payment which requires more growth.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:10.50,0:19:13.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Due to this creation of debt formed money,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:13.02,0:19:17.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,most of the world's money represents a debt with interest to be paid.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:19.06,0:19:22.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Without continual new and ever larger generations
Dialogue: 0,0:19:22.10,0:19:24.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of borrowers to produce growth,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:24.50,0:19:25.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and thus pay off these debts,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:25.87,0:19:28.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the world economy will collapse.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:30.01,0:19:31.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Like a Ponzi Scheme,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:31.15,0:19:34.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the system must expand or die.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:35.50,0:19:37.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Partly through this debt system,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:37.50,0:19:40.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the effects of economic growth have been spectacular:
Dialogue: 0,0:19:40.80,0:19:41.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in GDP,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:41.60,0:19:43.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,damming of rivers,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:43.11,0:19:44.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,water use,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:44.18,0:19:46.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,fertiliser consumption,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:46.46,0:19:47.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,urban population,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:47.76,0:19:49.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,paper consumption,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:49.67,0:19:51.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,motor vehicles,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:51.10,0:19:52.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,communications
Dialogue: 0,0:19:52.41,0:19:54.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and tourism.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:55.07,0:19:57.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,World population has grown to 7 billion,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:57.45,0:20:01.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and is expected to exceed 9 billion by 2050.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:02.04,0:20:05.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,On a flat, infinite earth, this would not be a problem.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:06.30,0:20:08.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,However, as the Earth is round and finite,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:08.69,0:20:11.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we will eventually face limits to growth.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:13.08,0:20:14.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Economic expansion
Dialogue: 0,0:20:14.30,0:20:18.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has resulted in increases in atmospheric nitrous oxide
Dialogue: 0,0:20:18.30,0:20:19.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and methane,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:19.10,0:20:20.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ozone depletion,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:20.87,0:20:22.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,increases in great floods,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:22.83,0:20:25.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,damage to ocean ecosystems,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:25.87,0:20:27.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,including nitrogen runoff,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:27.70,0:20:30.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,loss of rainforest and woodland,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:30.76,0:20:33.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,increases in domesticated land,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:33.11,0:20:36.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and species exinctions.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:38.05,0:20:40.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we place a single grain of rice
Dialogue: 0,0:20:40.20,0:20:42.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the first square of a chessboard,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:42.07,0:20:45.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,double this and place 2 grains on the second,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:46.01,0:20:48.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,double again and place 4 on the third,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:49.10,0:20:51.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,double again and place 8 on the fourth,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:51.50,0:20:52.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and continue this way,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:52.65,0:20:55.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,putting on each square twice the number of grains
Dialogue: 0,0:20:55.47,0:20:57.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than were on the previous one,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:57.10,0:20:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by the time we reach the final square,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:59.00,0:21:01.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we need an astronomical number of grains:
Dialogue: 0,0:21:03.80,0:21:05.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,9 quintillion,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:05.22,0:21:07.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,223 quadrillion,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:07.44,0:21:09.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,372 trillion,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:09.29,0:21:11.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,36 billion,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:11.28,0:21:13.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,854 million,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:13.05,0:21:16.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,776 thousand grains:
Dialogue: 0,0:21:17.04,0:21:18.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more grain than the human race
Dialogue: 0,0:21:18.56,0:21:21.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has grown in the last 10,000 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:22.90,0:21:23.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Modern economies,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:23.71,0:21:25.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like the grains on the chess board,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:25.41,0:21:27.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,doubles every few decades.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:27.70,0:21:30.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,On which square of the chessboard are we?
Dialogue: 0,0:21:33.09,0:21:34.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Besides energy,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:34.76,0:21:37.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,civilisation demands numerous essential resources:
Dialogue: 0,0:21:37.95,0:21:39.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,fresh water,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:39.25,0:21:40.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,topsoil,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:40.48,0:21:41.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,food,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:41.32,0:21:42.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,forests,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:42.13,0:21:44.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and many kinds of minerals and metals.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:45.09,0:21:46.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Growth is limited
Dialogue: 0,0:21:46.15,0:21:49.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by the essential resource in scarcest supply.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:51.40,0:21:52.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A barrel is made of staves,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:52.31,0:21:54.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and like water filling a barrel,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:54.98,0:21:57.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,growth can go no further than the lowest stave,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:57.79,0:22:00.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or the most limited essential resource.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:02.30,0:22:03.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Humans currently utilise
Dialogue: 0,0:22:03.83,0:22:07.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,40% of all photosynthesis n Earth.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:08.02,0:22:09.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Though it might be possible to use 80%,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:09.74,0:22:13.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we are unlikely to ever use 160%.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:23.24,0:22:25.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,FOOD
Dialogue: 0,0:22:27.00,0:22:28.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The global food supply
Dialogue: 0,0:22:28.18,0:22:29.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,relies heavily on fossil fuels.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:32.04,0:22:33.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Before WW1,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:33.14,0:22:35.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all agriculture was Organic.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:36.04,0:22:39.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Following the invention of fossil fuel derived fertilisers and pesticides
Dialogue: 0,0:22:39.80,0:22:42.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there were massive improvements in food production,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:42.60,0:22:45.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,allowing for increases in human population.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:48.10,0:22:49.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The use of artificial fertilisers
Dialogue: 0,0:22:49.39,0:22:51.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has fed far more people than would have been possible
Dialogue: 0,0:22:51.60,0:22:54.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with organic agriculture alone.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:56.05,0:22:58.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Fossil fuels are needed for farming equipment,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:58.35,0:22:59.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,transportation,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:59.75,0:23:00.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,refrigeration,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:01.07,0:23:02.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,packaging - in plastic,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:02.56,0:23:04.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and cooking.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:05.00,0:23:08.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Modern agriculture uses land to turn fossil fuels into food
Dialogue: 0,0:23:08.88,0:23:10.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- and food into people.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:12.00,0:23:13.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,About 7 calories of fossil-fuel energy
Dialogue: 0,0:23:13.92,0:23:16.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are used to produce 1 calorie of food.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:19.30,0:23:25.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In America, food travels approximately 1,500 miles from farm to customer.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:30.08,0:23:31.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Besides fossil fuel decline,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:31.53,0:23:34.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there are several threats to the current system of food production:
Dialogue: 0,0:23:35.20,0:23:36.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Cheap energy,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:36.33,0:23:37.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,improved technology
Dialogue: 0,0:23:37.93,0:23:41.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and subsidies have allowed massive fish catches.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:43.09,0:23:45.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Global fish catches peaked in the late nineteen eighties,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:45.71,0:23:48.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,forcing fishermen to move into deep waters.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:53.08,0:23:55.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nitrogen run off by fossil fuel based fertilisers
Dialogue: 0,0:23:55.72,0:23:59.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,poisons rivers and seas, creating enormous dead zones.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:00.50,0:24:01.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At this rate,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:01.31,0:24:03.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all fish populations are projected to collapse
Dialogue: 0,0:24:03.97,0:24:05.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by 2048.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:07.09,0:24:11.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Acid rain from cities and industries leeches the soil of vital nutrients,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:11.31,0:24:12.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,such as potassium,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:12.36,0:24:13.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,calcium,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:13.22,0:24:14.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and magnesium.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:18.03,0:24:20.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Another threat is a lack of water.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:20.20,0:24:25.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Many farms use water pumped from underground aquifers for irrigation.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:26.05,0:24:28.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The aquifers need thousands of years to fill up,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:28.89,0:24:30.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but can be pumped dry in a few decades,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:30.77,0:24:32.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like oil wells.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:34.03,0:24:36.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,America's massive Ogallala aquifer has fallen so low
Dialogue: 0,0:24:36.91,0:24:40.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that many farmers have had to return to less productive dry-land farming.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:42.06,0:24:46.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Additionally, The use of irrigation and fertilisers can lead to salinisation:
Dialogue: 0,0:24:47.00,0:24:48.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the accumulation of salt in the soil.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:49.30,0:24:51.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is a major cause of desertification.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:53.08,0:24:56.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Still another threat is topsoil loss.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:56.50,0:24:57.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,200 years ago,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:57.65,0:25:00.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there were 6 feet of topsoil on the American prairies.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:01.10,0:25:03.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Today, through tillage and poor practices,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:03.33,0:25:06.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,approximately half is gone.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:08.80,0:25:13.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Irrigation encourages the growth of stem rust fungi like UG-99
Dialogue: 0,0:25:13.27,0:25:17.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- which has the potential to destroy 80% of the world's grain harvest.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:19.01,0:25:20.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,According to Norman Borlaug,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:20.08,0:25:22.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,father of the Green Revolution,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:22.30,0:25:27.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,stem rust "has immense potential for social and human destruction."
Dialogue: 0,0:25:29.08,0:25:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The use of biofuels means that less land
Dialogue: 0,0:25:32.00,0:25:35.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will be available for food production.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:37.05,0:25:39.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,An area has a finite carrying capacity.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:40.00,0:25:41.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the number of animals or people
Dialogue: 0,0:25:41.64,0:25:43.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that can live there indefinitely.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:44.08,0:25:47.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If a species overshoots the carrying capacity of that area,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:47.49,0:25:51.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it will die back until the population returns to its natural limits.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:53.03,0:25:54.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The world has avoided this die-off
Dialogue: 0,0:25:54.17,0:25:56.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by finding new lands to cultivate,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:56.40,0:25:57.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or by increasing production,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:57.88,0:26:00.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which has been possible largely thanks to oil.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:01.00,0:26:03.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To continue growth,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:03.64,0:26:06.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more resources are required than the Earth can provide,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:07.09,0:26:09.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but no new planets are available.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:11.08,0:26:13.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the face of all these challenges,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:13.30,0:26:16.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,global food production must double by 2050
Dialogue: 0,0:26:16.30,0:26:18.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to feed the growing world population.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:21.04,0:26:23.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,1 billion people are already malnourished or starving.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:24.20,0:26:27.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There will be challenges in feeding over 9 billion in the years to come,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:28.09,0:26:31.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when world oil and natural gas production will be in decline.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:41.05,0:26:42.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,HAPPY ENDING
Dialogue: 0,0:26:45.99,0:26:48.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The global economy grows exponentially,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:48.10,0:26:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at about 3% a year,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:50.06,0:26:53.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,consuming increasing amounts of non-renewable fuels,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:53.27,0:26:54.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,minerals and metals,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:54.90,0:26:56.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as well as renewable resources
Dialogue: 0,0:26:56.85,0:27:00.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like water, forests, soils and fish
Dialogue: 0,0:27:00.28,0:27:02.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,faster than they can be replenished.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:03.90,0:27:05.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Even at a growth rate of 1%,
Dialogue: 0,0:27:05.57,0:27:08.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an economy will double in 70 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:10.02,0:27:13.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The problem is intensified by other factors:
Dialogue: 0,0:27:13.06,0:27:15.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Globalisation allows people on one continent
Dialogue: 0,0:27:15.50,0:27:18.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to buy goods and food made by those on another.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:19.10,0:27:20.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The lines of supply are long,
Dialogue: 0,0:27:20.75,0:27:23.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,placing strains on a limited oil resource.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:26.06,0:27:29.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We now rely on distant countries for basic necessities.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:30.70,0:27:32.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Modern cities are fossil fuel dependent.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:34.03,0:27:36.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Most Banking Systems are based on debt,
Dialogue: 0,0:27:36.65,0:27:40.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,forcing people into a spiral of loans and repayments
Dialogue: 0,0:27:40.20,0:27:41.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- producing growth.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:43.10,0:27:46.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What can be done in the face of these problems?
Dialogue: 0,0:27:47.03,0:27:48.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Many believe that the crisis can be prevented
Dialogue: 0,0:27:48.60,0:27:50.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,through conservation,
Dialogue: 0,0:27:50.25,0:27:51.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,technology,
Dialogue: 0,0:27:51.08,0:27:52.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,smart growth,
Dialogue: 0,0:27:52.57,0:27:53.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,recycling,
Dialogue: 0,0:27:53.80,0:27:55.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,electric cars and hybrids,
Dialogue: 0,0:27:55.10,0:27:57.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,substitution,
Dialogue: 0,0:27:57.06,0:27:58.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or voting.
Dialogue: 0,0:28:00.09,0:28:01.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Conservation will save you money,
Dialogue: 0,0:28:01.37,0:28:03.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it alone won't save the planet.
Dialogue: 0,0:28:05.00,0:28:07.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If some people cut back on oil use,
Dialogue: 0,0:28:07.30,0:28:09.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the reduced demand will drive down the price,
Dialogue: 0,0:28:09.90,0:28:12.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,allowing others to buy it for less.
Dialogue: 0,0:28:13.00,0:28:13.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the same fashion,
Dialogue: 0,0:28:13.58,0:28:17.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a more efficient engine that uses less energy will,
Dialogue: 0,0:28:17.40,0:28:20.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,paradoxically, lead to greater energy use.
Dialogue: 0,0:28:21.90,0:28:22.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the 19th century,
Dialogue: 0,0:28:22.90,0:28:25.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,English economist William Stanley Jevons
Dialogue: 0,0:28:25.54,0:28:28.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,realised that Better steam engines made coal
Dialogue: 0,0:28:28.10,0:28:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a more cost effective fuel source,
Dialogue: 0,0:28:31.00,0:28:32.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which led to the use of more steam engines,
Dialogue: 0,0:28:32.80,0:28:35.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which increased total coal consumption.
Dialogue: 0,0:28:37.09,0:28:40.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Growth of use will consume any energy or resources
Dialogue: 0,0:28:40.20,0:28:42.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,saved through conservation.
Dialogue: 0,0:28:48.03,0:28:48.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Many believe that scientists
Dialogue: 0,0:28:48.71,0:28:51.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will solve these problems with new technology.
Dialogue: 0,0:28:52.50,0:28:55.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,However, technology is not energy.
Dialogue: 0,0:28:56.05,0:28:57.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Technology can channel energy into work,
Dialogue: 0,0:28:57.90,0:28:59.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it can't replace it.
Dialogue: 0,0:29:00.30,0:29:02.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It also consumes resources:
Dialogue: 0,0:29:02.39,0:29:03.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for instance;
Dialogue: 0,0:29:03.04,0:29:04.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,computers are made with one tenth
Dialogue: 0,0:29:04.75,0:29:07.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the energy needed to make a car.
Dialogue: 0,0:29:08.87,0:29:10.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,More advanced technologies
Dialogue: 0,0:29:10.25,0:29:12.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,may make the situation worse,
Dialogue: 0,0:29:12.15,0:29:14.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as many require rare minerals,
Dialogue: 0,0:29:14.44,0:29:16.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which are also approaching limits.
Dialogue: 0,0:29:17.06,0:29:17.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example,
Dialogue: 0,0:29:17.83,0:29:21.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,97% of the world's Rare Earths are produced by China,
Dialogue: 0,0:29:21.72,0:29:24.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,most from a single mine in inner Mongolia.
Dialogue: 0,0:29:26.50,0:29:28.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These minerals are used in catalytic converters,
Dialogue: 0,0:29:28.83,0:29:30.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,aircraft engines,
Dialogue: 0,0:29:30.54,0:29:33.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,high efficiency magnets and hard drives,
Dialogue: 0,0:29:33.25,0:29:35.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,hybrid car batteries,
Dialogue: 0,0:29:35.15,0:29:36.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,lasers,
Dialogue: 0,0:29:36.35,0:29:37.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,portable X-Rays,
Dialogue: 0,0:29:37.58,0:29:39.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,shielding for nuclear reactors,
Dialogue: 0,0:29:39.80,0:29:41.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,compact discs,
Dialogue: 0,0:29:41.71,0:29:43.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,hybrid vehicle motors,
Dialogue: 0,0:29:43.55,0:29:45.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,low energy light-bulbs,
Dialogue: 0,0:29:45.31,0:29:46.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,fibre optics
Dialogue: 0,0:29:46.57,0:29:48.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and flat-screen displays.
Dialogue: 0,0:29:49.08,0:29:52.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China has begun to consider restricting the export of these minerals,
Dialogue: 0,0:29:52.55,0:29:54.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as demand soars.
Dialogue: 0,0:29:57.08,0:30:00.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So called sustainable growth or smart growth won't help,
Dialogue: 0,0:30:00.75,0:30:03.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as it also uses non renewable metals and minerals
Dialogue: 0,0:30:03.70,0:30:05.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in ever increasing quantities,
Dialogue: 0,0:30:05.38,0:30:07.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,including Rare Earths.
Dialogue: 0,0:30:08.90,0:30:10.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Recycling will not solve the problem,
Dialogue: 0,0:30:10.50,0:30:11.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as it requires energy,
Dialogue: 0,0:30:11.58,0:30:14.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the process is not 100% efficient.
Dialogue: 0,0:30:16.01,0:30:19.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is only possible to reclaim a fraction of the material being recycled;
Dialogue: 0,0:30:19.82,0:30:22.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a large portion is lost forever as waste.
Dialogue: 0,0:30:25.06,0:30:27.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Electric cars run on electricity.
Dialogue: 0,0:30:28.05,0:30:30.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As most power is generated from fossil fuels,
Dialogue: 0,0:30:30.56,0:30:32.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this is not a solution.
Dialogue: 0,0:30:33.10,0:30:37.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Also, cars of all types consume oil in their production.
Dialogue: 0,0:30:37.27,0:30:41.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Each tire alone requires about 7 gallons of Petroleum.
Dialogue: 0,0:30:43.04,0:30:47.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are around 800 million cars in the world, as of 2010.
Dialogue: 0,0:30:47.40,0:30:49.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At current growth rates,
Dialogue: 0,0:30:49.04,0:30:52.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this number would reach 2 billion by 2025.
Dialogue: 0,0:30:53.90,0:30:57.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is unlikely that the planet can support this many vehicles for long,
Dialogue: 0,0:30:57.20,0:30:59.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,regardless of their power source.
Dialogue: 0,0:31:01.03,0:31:02.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Many economists believe
Dialogue: 0,0:31:02.69,0:31:05.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the free market will substitute one energy source
Dialogue: 0,0:31:05.33,0:31:07.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with another through technological innovation.
Dialogue: 0,0:31:08.10,0:31:10.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,However, the main substitutes to oil
Dialogue: 0,0:31:10.20,0:31:12.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,face their own decline rates.
Dialogue: 0,0:31:13.90,0:31:18.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Substitution also fails to account for the time needed to prepare for a transition.
Dialogue: 0,0:31:20.00,0:31:21.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The U.S. Department of Energy's Hirsch report
Dialogue: 0,0:31:21.83,0:31:25.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,estimates that at least 2 decades would be needed to prepare
Dialogue: 0,0:31:25.35,0:31:27.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the effects of Peak Oil.
Dialogue: 0,0:31:28.90,0:31:31.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The issues of energy shortages,
Dialogue: 0,0:31:31.17,0:31:33.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,resource depletion,
Dialogue: 0,0:31:33.07,0:31:34.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,topsoil loss,
Dialogue: 0,0:31:34.75,0:31:39.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and pollution are all symptoms of a single, larger problem:
Dialogue: 0,0:31:40.50,0:31:42.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Growth.
Dialogue: 0,0:31:43.70,0:31:46.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As long as our financial system demands endless growth,
Dialogue: 0,0:31:46.33,0:31:49.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,reform is unlikely to succeed.
Dialogue: 0,0:31:49.93,0:31:52.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What then, will the future look like?
Dialogue: 0,0:31:54.03,0:31:56.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Optimists believe that growth will continue forever,
Dialogue: 0,0:31:56.38,0:31:57.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,without limits.
Dialogue: 0,0:31:59.04,0:32:02.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Pessimists think that we're heading towards a new Stone Age,
Dialogue: 0,0:32:02.12,0:32:04.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or extinction.
Dialogue: 0,0:32:05.03,0:32:06.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The truth may lie between these extremes.
Dialogue: 0,0:32:07.42,0:32:11.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is possible that society might fall back to a simpler state,
Dialogue: 0,0:32:12.10,0:32:14.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one in which energy use is a lot less.
Dialogue: 0,0:32:16.03,0:32:18.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This would mean a harder life for most.
Dialogue: 0,0:32:18.10,0:32:18.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,More manual labour,
Dialogue: 0,0:32:18.71,0:32:20.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more farm work,
Dialogue: 0,0:32:20.42,0:32:24.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and local production of goods, food and services.
Dialogue: 0,0:32:25.08,0:32:28.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What should a person do to prepare for such a possible future?
Dialogue: 0,0:32:29.08,0:32:33.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Expect a decrease in supplies of food and goods from far away places.
Dialogue: 0,0:32:34.10,0:32:35.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Start walking or cycling.
Dialogue: 0,0:32:36.50,0:32:39.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Get used to using less electricity.
Dialogue: 0,0:32:40.03,0:32:41.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Get out of debt.
Dialogue: 0,0:32:41.90,0:32:42.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Try to avoid banks.
Dialogue: 0,0:32:43.40,0:32:45.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Instead of shopping at big box stores,
Dialogue: 0,0:32:45.30,0:32:48.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,support local businesses.
Dialogue: 0,0:32:48.15,0:32:51.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Buy food grown locally, at Farmers' Markets.
Dialogue: 0,0:32:51.60,0:32:55.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Instead of a lawn, consider gardening to grow your own food.
Dialogue: 0,0:32:55.45,0:32:57.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Learn how to preserve it.
Dialogue: 0,0:32:58.40,0:33:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Consider the use of local currencies
Dialogue: 0,0:33:00.00,0:33:02.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,should the larger economy cease to function,
Dialogue: 0,0:33:02.50,0:33:05.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and develop greater self sufficiency.
Dialogue: 0,0:33:07.02,0:33:08.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,None of these steps will prevent Collapse,
Dialogue: 0,0:33:08.50,0:33:12.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they might improve your chances in a low energy future,
Dialogue: 0,0:33:13.09,0:33:15.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one in which we will have to be more self reliant,
Dialogue: 0,0:33:15.42,0:33:18.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as our ancestors once were.