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Incubate Pictures presents

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In association with Post Carbon Institute

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There's No Tomorrow

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This is the Earth,

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as it looked 90 million years ago.

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Geologists call this period the 'Late Cretaceous'.

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It was a time of extreme global warming,

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When dinosaurs still ruled the planet.

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They went about their lives,

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secure in their place at the top of the food chain,

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oblivious of the changes taking place around them.

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The continents were drifting apart,

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opening huge rifts in the Earth's crust.

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They flooded, becoming seas.

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Algae thrived in the extreme heat,

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poisoning the water.

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They died,

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and fell, in their trillions, to the bottom of the rifts.

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Rivers washed sediment into the seas,

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until the organic remains of the algae were buried.

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As the pressure grew, so did the heat,

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until a chemical reaction transformed the organics

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into hydrocarbon fossil fuels:

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Oil and Natural Gas.

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A similar process occurred on land,

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which produced coal.

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It took nature about 5 million years

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to create the fossil fuels that the world consumes in 1 year.

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The modern way of life

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is dependent on this fossilised sunlight,

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although a surprising number of people take it for granted.

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Since 1860, geologists have discovered over 2 trillion barrels of oil.

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Since then, the world has used approximately half.

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Before you can pump oil, you have to discover it.

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At first it was easy to find, and cheap to extract.

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The first great American oilfield was Spindletop, .

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discovered in 1900

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Many more followed.

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Geologists scoured America.

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They found enormous deposits of oil, natural gas and coal.

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America produced more oil than any other country,

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enabling it to become an industrial super-power.

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Once an oil well starts producing oil,

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it's only a matter of time before it enters a decline.

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Individual wells have different production rates.

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When many wells are averaged together,

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the combined graph looks like a bell curve.

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Typically

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it takes 40 years after the peak of discovery

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for a country to reach its peak of production,

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after which it enters a permanent fall.

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In the 1950s,

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Shell geophysicist M. King Hubbert

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predicted that America's oil production would peak in 1970,

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40 years after the peak of U.S. oil discovery.

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Few believed him.

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However, in 1970,

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American oil production peaked,

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and entered a permanent decline.

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Hubbert was vindicated.

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From this point on,

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America would depend increasingly on imported oil.

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This made her vulnerable to supply disruptions,

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and contributed to the economic mayhem of the 1973

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and 1979 oil shocks.

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The 1930s saw the highest rate of oil discoveries in U.S. history.

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In spite of advanced technology,

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the decline in the discovery of new american oilfields has been relentless.

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More recent finds, such as ANWAR,

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would at best provide enough oil for 17 months.

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Even the new "Jack 2" field in the gulf of Mexico

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would only supply a few months of domestic demand.

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Though large, neither field comes close to satisfying

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America's energy requirements.

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Evidence is now mounting

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that world oil production is peaking, or is close to it.

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Globally, the rate of discovery of new oilfields peaked in the 1960s.

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Over 40 years later,

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the decline in the discovery of new fields

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seems unstoppable.

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54 of the 65 major oil producing nations

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have already peaked in production.

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Many of the others are expected to follow in the near future.

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The world will need to bring the equivalent

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of a new Saudi Arabia into production

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every three years

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to make up for declining output in existing oilfields.

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In the nineteen sixties,

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six barrels of oil were found for every one that was used.

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Four decades later,

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the world consumes between three and six barrels of oil

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for every one that it finds.

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Once the peak of world oil production is reached,

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demand for oil will outstrip supply,

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and the price of gasoline will fluctuate wildly,

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affecting far more than the cost of filling a car.

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Modern cities are fossil fuel dependent.

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Even roads are made from asphalt,

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a petroleum product,

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as are the roofs of many homes.

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Large areas would be uninhabitable

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without heating in the winter or air conditioning in the summer.

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Suburban sprawl encourages people to drive many miles

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to work, school and stores.

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Major cities have been zoned with residential

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and commercial areas placed far apart,

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forcing people to drive.

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Suburbia, and many communities

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were designed on the assumption of plentiful oil and energy.

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Chemicals derived from fossil fuels,

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or Petro-chemicals,

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are essential in the manufacture of countless products.

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The modern system of agriculture

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is heavily dependent on fossil fuels,

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as are hospitals,

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aviation,

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water distribution systems,

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and the U.S. military,

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which alone uses about 140 million barrels of oil a year.

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Fossil fuels are also essential for the creation of plastics and polymers,

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key ingredients in computers, entertainment devices and clothing.

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The global economy currently depends on endless growth,

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demanding an increasing supply of cheap energy.

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We are so dependant on oil and other fossil fuels,

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that even a small disruption in supply

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may have far-reaching effects on every aspect of our lives.

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ENERGY

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Energy is the ability to do work.

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The average American today has available the energy equivalent of 150 slaves, working 24 hours a day.

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Materials that store this energy for work are called fuels,

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Some fuels contain more energy than others.

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This is called energy density.

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Of these fuels, oil is the most critical.

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The world consumes 30 billion barrels a year,

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equal to 1 cubic mile of oil,

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which contains as much energy

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as would be generated from 52 nuclear power plants

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working for the next 50 years.

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Although oil only generates 1.6% of U.S. electricity,

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it powers 96% of all transportation.

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In 2008, two thirds of America's oil was imported.

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Most was from Canada,

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Mexico,

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Saudi Arabia,

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Venezuela,

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Nigeria, Iraq and Angola.

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Several factors make oil unique:

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it is energy dense.

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One barrel of oil contains the energy equivalent

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of almost three years of human labour.

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It is liquid at room temperature,

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easy to transport

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and usable in small engines.

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To acquire energy, you have to use energy.

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The trick is to use smaller amounts to find and extract larger amounts.

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This is called EROEI:

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Energy Return on Energy Invested.

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Conventional oil is a good example.

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The easy to extract, high-quality crude was pumped first.

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Oilmen spent the energy equivalent of 1 barrel of oil to find and extract 100.

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The EROEI of oil was 100.

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As the easy to find oil was pumped first,

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exploration moved into deep waters,

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or distant countries,

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using increasing amounts of energy to do so.

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Often, the oil we find now is heavy or sour crude,

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and is expensive to refine.

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The EROEI for oil today is as low as 10.

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If you use more energy to get the fuel than is contained in the fuel,

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it's not worth the effort to get it.

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It is possible to convert one fuel source into another.

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Every time you do so,

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some of the energy contained in the original fuel is lost.

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For instance, there is unconventional oil:

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Tar Sands and Shale.

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Tar Sands are found mainly in Canada.

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Two thirds of the world's shale is in the US.

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Both of these fuels can be converted to synthetic crude oil.

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However, this requires large amounts of heat and fresh water,

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reducing their EROEI,

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which varies from five, to as low as one and a half.

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Shale is an exceptionally poor fuel,

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pound for pound containing about one third the energy

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of a box of breakfast cereal.

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Coal exists in vast quantities,

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and generates almost half of the planet's electricity.

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The world uses almost 2 cubic miles of coal a year.

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However, Global coal production may peak before 2040.

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The claim that America has centuries worth of coal is deceptive,

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as it fails to account for growing demand, and decreasing quality.

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Much of the high quality anthracite coal is gone,

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leaving lower quality coal that is less energy dense.

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Production issues arise, as surface coal is depleted,

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and miners have to dig deeper and in less accessible areas.

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Many use destructive mountaintop removal to reach coal deposits,

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causing environmental mayhem.

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Natural gas is often found alongside oil and coal.

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North American discovery of conventional gas peaked in the 1950s,

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and production peaked in the early 70s.

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If the discovery graph is moved forward by 23 years,

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the possible future of North American conventional natural gas production

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is revealed.

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Recent breakthroughs have allowed the extraction of unconventional natural gas,

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such as shale gas, which might help offset decline in the years ahead.

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Unconventional natural gas is controversial,

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as it needs high energy prices to be profitable.

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Even with Unconventional gas,

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there may be a peak in global natural gas production by 2030.

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Large uranium reserves for nuclear fission still exist.

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To replace the 10 terawatts the world currently generates from fossil fuels,

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would require 10,000 nuclear power plants.

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At that rate, the known reserves of uranium would last for only 10 to 20 years.

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Experiments with plutonium based fast-breeder reactors

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in France and Japan

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have been expensive failures.

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Nuclear fusion faces massive technical obstacles.

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Then there are the renewables.

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Windpower has a high EROEI, but is intermittent.

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Hydro power is reliable,

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but most rivers in the developed world are already dammed.

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Conventional geothermal power plants

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use existing hotspots near the Earth's surface.

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They are limited to those areas.

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In the experimental EGS system,

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two shafts would be drilled 6 miles deep.

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Water is pumped down one shaft, to be heated in fissures,

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then rise up the other, generating power.

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According to a recent MIT report,

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this technology might supply 10% of US electricity by 2050.

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Wave power is restricted to coastal areas.

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The energy density of waves varies from region to region.

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Transporting wave-generated electricity inland would be challenging.

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Also, the salty ocean environment is corrosive to turbines.

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Biofuels are fuels that are grown.

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Wood has a low energy density, and grows slowly.

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The world uses 3.7 cubic miles of wood a year.

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Biodiesel and ethanol

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are made from crops grown by petroleum powered agriculture.

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The energy profit from these fuels is very low.

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Some politicians want to turn corn into ethanol.

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Using Ethanol to supply one tenth of projected US oil use in 2020,

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would require 3% of America's Land.

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To supply one third would require 3 times the area now used to grow food.

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To supply all US petroleum consumption in 2020

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would take twice as much land as is used to grow food.

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Hydrogen has to be extracted from Natural Gas, coal or water,

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which uses more energy than we get from the Hydrogen.

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This makes a Hydrogen economy unlikely.

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All the world's photovoltaic solar panels generate as much electricity

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as two coal power plants.

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The equivalent of between 1 and 4 tons of coal

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are used in the manufacture of a single solar panel.

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We'd have to cover as many as 140,000 square miles with panels

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to meet current world demand.

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As of 2007, there are only about 4 square miles.

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Concentrated Solar Power, or Solar Thermal has great potential,

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though at the moment there are only a small number of plants operating.

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They are also limited to sunny climates,

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requiring large amounts of electricity

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to be transmitted over long distances.

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All of the alternatives to oil depend on oil-powered machinery,

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or require materials such as plastics that are produced from oil.

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When considering future claims of amazing new fuels or inventions,

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ask:

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Does the advocate have a working, commercial model of the invention?

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What is its energy density?

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Can it be stored or easily distributed?

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Is it reliable or intermittent?

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Can it be scaled to a national level?

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Are there hidden engineering challenges?

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What is the EROEI?

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What are the environmental impacts?

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Remember that large numbers can be deceptive.

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For example: 1 billion barrels of oil

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will satisfy global demand for only 12 days.

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A transition from fossil fuels would be a monumental challenge.

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As of 2007, coal generates 48.5% of U.S. electricity.

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21.6% is from natural gas,

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1.6% is from petroleum,

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19.4% is from nuclear,

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5.8% is from hydro.

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Other renewables only generate 2.5%.

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Is it possible to replace a system based on fossil fuels

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with a patchwork of alternatives?

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Major technological advances are needed,

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as well as political will and co-operation,

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massive investment,

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international consensus,

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the retrofitting of the $45 trillion global economy,

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including transportation,

0:17:02.027,0:17:03.000
manufacturing industries,

0:17:03.001,0:17:05.083
and agricultural systems,

0:17:05.083,0:17:08.700
as well as officials competent to manage the transition.

0:17:10.000,0:17:11.523
If all these are achieved,

0:17:11.523,0:17:14.523
could the current way of life continue?

0:17:19.004,0:17:21.009
Growth

0:17:21.009,0:17:23.300
These bacteria live in a bottle.

0:17:24.008,0:17:25.800
Their population doubles every minute.

0:17:27.000,0:17:29.300
At 11AM there is one bacterium.

0:17:30.087,0:17:32.100
At 12 noon the bottle is full.

0:17:33.081,0:17:35.295
It is half-full at 11.59

0:17:35.295,0:17:37.985
leaving only enough space for one more doubling.

0:17:38.900,0:17:41.033
The bacteria see the danger.

0:17:41.033,0:17:44.056
They search for new bottles, and find 3.

0:17:44.056,0:17:47.083
They assume that their problem is solved.

0:17:47.083,0:17:49.600
By 12 noon, the first bottle is full.

0:17:50.000,0:17:53.136
By 12.01, the second bottle is full.

0:17:54.000,0:17:56.820
By 12.02, all the bottles are full.

0:17:57.900,0:17:59.928
This is the problem that we face,

0:17:59.928,0:18:03.200
due to the doubling caused by Exponential Growth.

0:18:06.061,0:18:09.280
When humanity began to use coal and oil as fuel sources,

0:18:09.280,0:18:12.700
it experienced unprecedented growth.

0:18:14.029,0:18:17.326
Even low growth rates produce large increases over time.

0:18:18.600,0:18:20.100
At a 1% growth rate,

0:18:20.150,0:18:22.900
an economy will double in 70 years.

0:18:23.500,0:18:27.087
A 2% rate doubles in 35 years.

0:18:27.087,0:18:29.264
At a 10% growth rate,

0:18:29.264,0:18:32.350
an economy will double in only 7 years.

0:18:33.400,0:18:36.750
If an economy grows at the current average of 3%,

0:18:36.750,0:18:39.750
it doubles every 23 years.

0:18:40.600,0:18:44.023
With each doubling, demand for energy and resources

0:18:44.023,0:18:47.023
will exceed all the previous doublings combined.

0:18:48.079,0:18:52.050
The financial system is built on the assumption of growth

0:18:52.050,0:18:55.778
- which requires an increasing supply of energy to support it.

0:18:56.700,0:18:58.469
Banks lend money they don't have,

0:18:58.469,0:19:00.600
in effect creating it.

0:19:01.000,0:19:04.816
The borrowers use the newly created loan money to grow their businesses,

0:19:04.816,0:19:06.200
and pay back the debt,

0:19:06.204,0:19:09.384
with an interest payment which requires more growth.

0:19:10.500,0:19:13.019
Due to this creation of debt formed money,

0:19:13.019,0:19:17.616
most of the world's money represents a debt with interest to be paid.

0:19:19.056,0:19:22.100
Without continual new and ever larger generations

0:19:22.101,0:19:24.200
of borrowers to produce growth,

0:19:24.500,0:19:25.871
and thus pay off these debts,

0:19:25.871,0:19:28.300
the world economy will collapse.

0:19:30.010,0:19:31.148
Like a Ponzi Scheme,

0:19:31.148,0:19:34.148
the system must expand or die.

0:19:35.500,0:19:37.450
Partly through this debt system,

0:19:37.500,0:19:40.400
the effects of economic growth have been spectacular:

0:19:40.800,0:19:41.600
in GDP,

0:19:41.601,0:19:43.112
damming of rivers,

0:19:43.112,0:19:44.150
water use,

0:19:44.183,0:19:46.456
fertiliser consumption,

0:19:46.456,0:19:47.762
urban population,

0:19:47.762,0:19:49.669
paper consumption,

0:19:49.669,0:19:51.105
motor vehicles,

0:19:51.105,0:19:52.411
communications

0:19:52.411,0:19:54.100
and tourism.

0:19:55.068,0:19:57.453
World population has grown to 7 billion,

0:19:57.453,0:20:01.189
and is expected to exceed 9 billion by 2050.

0:20:02.041,0:20:05.500
On a flat, infinite earth, this would not be a problem.

0:20:06.300,0:20:08.686
However, as the Earth is round and finite,

0:20:08.686,0:20:11.686
we will eventually face limits to growth.

0:20:13.084,0:20:14.302
Economic expansion

0:20:14.302,0:20:18.300
has resulted in increases in atmospheric nitrous oxide

0:20:18.301,0:20:19.100
and methane,

0:20:19.101,0:20:20.702
ozone depletion,

0:20:20.870,0:20:22.833
increases in great floods,

0:20:22.833,0:20:25.833
damage to ocean ecosystems,

0:20:25.874,0:20:27.703
including nitrogen runoff,

0:20:27.703,0:20:30.759
loss of rainforest and woodland,

0:20:30.759,0:20:33.110
increases in domesticated land,

0:20:33.110,0:20:36.110
and species exinctions.

0:20:38.052,0:20:40.200
If we place a single grain of rice

0:20:40.201,0:20:42.070
on the first square of a chessboard,

0:20:42.070,0:20:45.200
double this and place 2 grains on the second,

0:20:46.014,0:20:48.600
double again and place 4 on the third,

0:20:49.100,0:20:51.470
double again and place 8 on the fourth,

0:20:51.500,0:20:52.650
and continue this way,

0:20:52.650,0:20:55.471
putting on each square twice the number of grains

0:20:55.471,0:20:57.100
than were on the previous one,

0:20:57.101,0:20:59.001
by the time we reach the final square,

0:20:59.002,0:21:01.244
we need an astronomical number of grains:

0:21:03.800,0:21:05.215
9 quintillion,

0:21:05.215,0:21:07.435
223 quadrillion,

0:21:07.435,0:21:09.290
372 trillion,

0:21:09.290,0:21:11.275
36 billion,

0:21:11.275,0:21:13.051
854 million,

0:21:13.051,0:21:16.552
776 thousand grains:

0:21:17.044,0:21:18.563
more grain than the human race

0:21:18.563,0:21:21.563
has grown in the last 10,000 years.

0:21:22.900,0:21:23.709
Modern economies,

0:21:23.709,0:21:25.407
like the grains on the chess board,

0:21:25.407,0:21:27.300
doubles every few decades.

0:21:27.700,0:21:30.600
On which square of the chessboard are we?

0:21:33.087,0:21:34.759
Besides energy,

0:21:34.759,0:21:37.659
civilisation demands numerous essential resources:

0:21:37.950,0:21:39.252
fresh water,

0:21:39.252,0:21:40.480
topsoil,

0:21:40.480,0:21:41.316
food,

0:21:41.316,0:21:42.126
forests,

0:21:42.126,0:21:44.500
and many kinds of minerals and metals.

0:21:45.087,0:21:46.150
Growth is limited

0:21:46.151,0:21:49.208
by the essential resource in scarcest supply.

0:21:51.400,0:21:52.313
A barrel is made of staves,

0:21:52.313,0:21:54.978
and like water filling a barrel,

0:21:54.978,0:21:57.792
growth can go no further than the lowest stave,

0:21:57.792,0:22:00.900
or the most limited essential resource.

0:22:02.300,0:22:03.833
Humans currently utilise

0:22:03.833,0:22:07.300
40% of all photosynthesis n Earth.

0:22:08.021,0:22:09.737
Though it might be possible to use 80%,

0:22:09.737,0:22:13.500
we are unlikely to ever use 160%.

0:22:23.242,0:22:25.900
FOOD

0:22:27.000,0:22:28.180
The global food supply

0:22:28.180,0:22:29.900
relies heavily on fossil fuels.

0:22:32.040,0:22:33.143
Before WW1,

0:22:33.143,0:22:35.468
all agriculture was Organic.

0:22:36.040,0:22:39.804
Following the invention of fossil fuel derived fertilisers and pesticides

0:22:39.804,0:22:42.500
there were massive improvements in food production,

0:22:42.600,0:22:45.300
allowing for increases in human population.

0:22:48.095,0:22:49.391
The use of artificial fertilisers

0:22:49.391,0:22:51.600
has fed far more people than would have been possible

0:22:51.601,0:22:54.875
with organic agriculture alone.

0:22:56.050,0:22:58.351
Fossil fuels are needed for farming equipment,

0:22:58.351,0:22:59.814
transportation,

0:22:59.750,0:23:00.708
refrigeration,

0:23:01.068,0:23:02.557
packaging - in plastic,

0:23:02.557,0:23:04.673
and cooking.

0:23:05.000,0:23:08.878
Modern agriculture uses land to turn fossil fuels into food

0:23:08.878,0:23:10.600
- and food into people.

0:23:12.004,0:23:13.920
About 7 calories of fossil-fuel energy

0:23:13.920,0:23:16.920
are used to produce 1 calorie of food.

0:23:19.300,0:23:25.022
In America, food travels approximately 1,500 miles from farm to customer.

0:23:30.083,0:23:31.527
Besides fossil fuel decline,

0:23:31.527,0:23:34.896
there are several threats to the current system of food production:

0:23:35.200,0:23:36.333
Cheap energy,

0:23:36.333,0:23:37.927
improved technology

0:23:37.927,0:23:41.349
and subsidies have allowed massive fish catches.

0:23:43.091,0:23:45.708
Global fish catches peaked in the late nineteen eighties,

0:23:45.708,0:23:48.708
forcing fishermen to move into deep waters.

0:23:53.083,0:23:55.716
Nitrogen run off by fossil fuel based fertilisers

0:23:55.716,0:23:59.500
poisons rivers and seas, creating enormous dead zones.

0:24:00.500,0:24:01.306
At this rate,

0:24:01.306,0:24:03.971
all fish populations are projected to collapse

0:24:03.971,0:24:05.930
by 2048.

0:24:07.091,0:24:11.311
Acid rain from cities and industries leeches the soil of vital nutrients,

0:24:11.311,0:24:12.356
such as potassium,

0:24:12.356,0:24:13.218
calcium,

0:24:13.218,0:24:14.500
and magnesium.

0:24:18.027,0:24:20.095
Another threat is a lack of water.

0:24:20.200,0:24:25.200
Many farms use water pumped from underground aquifers for irrigation.

0:24:26.050,0:24:28.891
The aquifers need thousands of years to fill up,

0:24:28.891,0:24:30.772
but can be pumped dry in a few decades,

0:24:30.772,0:24:32.600
like oil wells.

0:24:34.029,0:24:36.911
America's massive Ogallala aquifer has fallen so low

0:24:36.911,0:24:40.750
that many farmers have had to return to less productive dry-land farming.

0:24:42.056,0:24:46.576
Additionally, The use of irrigation and fertilisers can lead to salinisation:

0:24:47.000,0:24:48.600
the accumulation of salt in the soil.

0:24:49.300,0:24:51.500
This is a major cause of desertification.

0:24:53.078,0:24:56.100
Still another threat is topsoil loss.

0:24:56.500,0:24:57.652
200 years ago,

0:24:57.652,0:25:00.600
there were 6 feet of topsoil on the American prairies.

0:25:01.100,0:25:03.333
Today, through tillage and poor practices,

0:25:03.333,0:25:06.333
approximately half is gone.

0:25:08.800,0:25:13.273
Irrigation encourages the growth of stem rust fungi like UG-99

0:25:13.273,0:25:17.700
- which has the potential to destroy 80% of the world's grain harvest.

0:25:19.010,0:25:20.083
According to Norman Borlaug,

0:25:20.083,0:25:22.207
father of the Green Revolution,

0:25:22.300,0:25:27.902
stem rust "has immense potential for social and human destruction."

0:25:29.079,0:25:32.000
The use of biofuels means that less land

0:25:32.001,0:25:35.108
will be available for food production.

0:25:37.054,0:25:39.200
An area has a finite carrying capacity.

0:25:40.000,0:25:41.642
This is the number of animals or people

0:25:41.642,0:25:43.800
that can live there indefinitely.

0:25:44.083,0:25:47.494
If a species overshoots the carrying capacity of that area,

0:25:47.494,0:25:51.700
it will die back until the population returns to its natural limits.

0:25:53.029,0:25:54.167
The world has avoided this die-off

0:25:54.167,0:25:56.400
by finding new lands to cultivate,

0:25:56.400,0:25:57.875
or by increasing production,

0:25:57.875,0:26:00.980
which has been possible largely thanks to oil.

0:26:01.000,0:26:03.638
To continue growth,

0:26:03.638,0:26:06.900
more resources are required than the Earth can provide,

0:26:07.091,0:26:09.900
but no new planets are available.

0:26:11.079,0:26:13.251
In the face of all these challenges,

0:26:13.300,0:26:16.417
global food production must double by 2050

0:26:16.301,0:26:18.900
to feed the growing world population.

0:26:21.044,0:26:23.667
1 billion people are already malnourished or starving.

0:26:24.200,0:26:27.600
There will be challenges in feeding over 9 billion in the years to come,

0:26:28.094,0:26:31.900
when world oil and natural gas production will be in decline.

0:26:41.054,0:26:42.600
HAPPY ENDING

0:26:45.988,0:26:48.100
The global economy grows exponentially,

0:26:48.101,0:26:50.000
at about 3% a year,

0:26:50.056,0:26:53.270
consuming increasing amounts of non-renewable fuels,

0:26:53.270,0:26:54.900
minerals and metals,

0:26:54.901,0:26:56.849
as well as renewable resources

0:26:56.849,0:27:00.271
like water, forests, soils and fish

0:27:00.280,0:27:02.335
faster than they can be replenished.

0:27:03.900,0:27:05.574
Even at a growth rate of 1%,

0:27:05.574,0:27:08.200
an economy will double in 70 years.

0:27:10.016,0:27:13.058
The problem is intensified by other factors:

0:27:13.058,0:27:15.500
Globalisation allows people on one continent

0:27:15.500,0:27:18.500
to buy goods and food made by those on another.

0:27:19.095,0:27:20.751
The lines of supply are long,

0:27:20.751,0:27:23.751
placing strains on a limited oil resource.

0:27:26.057,0:27:29.333
We now rely on distant countries for basic necessities.

0:27:30.700,0:27:32.800
Modern cities are fossil fuel dependent.

0:27:34.033,0:27:36.600
Most Banking Systems are based on debt,

0:27:36.650,0:27:40.029
forcing people into a spiral of loans and repayments

0:27:40.200,0:27:41.800
- producing growth.

0:27:43.095,0:27:46.200
What can be done in the face of these problems?

0:27:47.029,0:27:48.600
Many believe that the crisis can be prevented

0:27:48.600,0:27:50.250
through conservation,

0:27:50.251,0:27:51.079
technology,

0:27:51.079,0:27:52.568
smart growth,

0:27:52.568,0:27:53.800
recycling,

0:27:53.801,0:27:55.100
electric cars and hybrids,

0:27:55.101,0:27:57.061
substitution,

0:27:57.061,0:27:58.300
or voting.

0:28:00.091,0:28:01.371
Conservation will save you money,

0:28:01.371,0:28:03.696
but it alone won't save the planet.

0:28:05.000,0:28:07.250
If some people cut back on oil use,

0:28:07.300,0:28:09.900
the reduced demand will drive down the price,

0:28:09.901,0:28:12.167
allowing others to buy it for less.

0:28:13.000,0:28:13.583
In the same fashion,

0:28:13.583,0:28:17.400
a more efficient engine that uses less energy will,

0:28:17.401,0:28:20.900
paradoxically, lead to greater energy use.

0:28:21.900,0:28:22.896
In the 19th century,

0:28:22.896,0:28:25.535
English economist William Stanley Jevons

0:28:25.535,0:28:28.100
realised that Better steam engines made coal

0:28:28.101,0:28:31.000
a more cost effective fuel source,

0:28:31.001,0:28:32.797
which led to the use of more steam engines,

0:28:32.797,0:28:35.800
which increased total coal consumption.

0:28:37.087,0:28:40.200
Growth of use will consume any energy or resources

0:28:40.201,0:28:42.400
saved through conservation.

0:28:48.029,0:28:48.708
Many believe that scientists

0:28:48.708,0:28:51.990
will solve these problems with new technology.

0:28:52.500,0:28:55.105
However, technology is not energy.

0:28:56.048,0:28:57.900
Technology can channel energy into work,

0:28:57.901,0:28:59.500
but it can't replace it.

0:29:00.300,0:29:02.393
It also consumes resources:

0:29:02.393,0:29:03.042
for instance;

0:29:03.042,0:29:04.750
computers are made with one tenth

0:29:04.751,0:29:07.708
of the energy needed to make a car.

0:29:08.872,0:29:10.250
More advanced technologies

0:29:10.251,0:29:12.150
may make the situation worse,

0:29:12.151,0:29:14.436
as many require rare minerals,

0:29:14.436,0:29:16.200
which are also approaching limits.

0:29:17.058,0:29:17.832
For example,

0:29:17.832,0:29:21.724
97% of the world's Rare Earths are produced by China,

0:29:21.724,0:29:24.800
most from a single mine in inner Mongolia.

0:29:26.500,0:29:28.833
These minerals are used in catalytic converters,

0:29:28.833,0:29:30.542
aircraft engines,

0:29:30.542,0:29:33.250
high efficiency magnets and hard drives,

0:29:33.250,0:29:35.151
hybrid car batteries,

0:29:35.151,0:29:36.353
lasers,

0:29:36.353,0:29:37.583
portable X-Rays,

0:29:37.583,0:29:39.801
shielding for nuclear reactors,

0:29:39.801,0:29:41.708
compact discs,

0:29:41.708,0:29:43.550
hybrid vehicle motors,

0:29:43.551,0:29:45.313
low energy light-bulbs,

0:29:45.313,0:29:46.567
fibre optics

0:29:46.567,0:29:48.200
and flat-screen displays.

0:29:49.083,0:29:52.549
China has begun to consider restricting the export of these minerals,

0:29:52.549,0:29:54.300
as demand soars.

0:29:57.083,0:30:00.750
So called sustainable growth or smart growth won't help,

0:30:00.750,0:30:03.700
as it also uses non renewable metals and minerals

0:30:03.701,0:30:05.375
in ever increasing quantities,

0:30:05.375,0:30:07.517
including Rare Earths.

0:30:08.900,0:30:10.500
Recycling will not solve the problem,

0:30:10.501,0:30:11.582
as it requires energy,

0:30:11.583,0:30:14.400
and the process is not 100% efficient.

0:30:16.010,0:30:19.820
It is only possible to reclaim a fraction of the material being recycled;

0:30:19.820,0:30:22.820
a large portion is lost forever as waste.

0:30:25.056,0:30:27.600
Electric cars run on electricity.

0:30:28.054,0:30:30.557
As most power is generated from fossil fuels,

0:30:30.557,0:30:32.600
this is not a solution.

0:30:33.095,0:30:37.270
Also, cars of all types consume oil in their production.

0:30:37.270,0:30:41.200
Each tire alone requires about 7 gallons of Petroleum.

0:30:43.040,0:30:47.333
There are around 800 million cars in the world, as of 2010.

0:30:47.400,0:30:49.042
At current growth rates,

0:30:49.042,0:30:52.950
this number would reach 2 billion by 2025.

0:30:53.900,0:30:57.200
It is unlikely that the planet can support this many vehicles for long,

0:30:57.201,0:30:59.800
regardless of their power source.

0:31:01.031,0:31:02.500
Many economists believe

0:31:02.687,0:31:05.326
that the free market will substitute one energy source

0:31:05.326,0:31:07.400
with another through technological innovation.

0:31:08.100,0:31:10.200
However, the main substitutes to oil

0:31:10.201,0:31:12.292
face their own decline rates.

0:31:13.900,0:31:18.570
Substitution also fails to account for the time needed to prepare for a transition.

0:31:20.000,0:31:21.833
The U.S. Department of Energy's Hirsch report

0:31:21.833,0:31:25.350
estimates that at least 2 decades would be needed to prepare

0:31:25.351,0:31:27.900
for the effects of Peak Oil.

0:31:28.900,0:31:31.170
The issues of energy shortages,

0:31:31.171,0:31:33.068
resource depletion,

0:31:33.068,0:31:34.750
topsoil loss,

0:31:34.750,0:31:39.180
and pollution are all symptoms of a single, larger problem:

0:31:40.500,0:31:42.500
Growth.

0:31:43.700,0:31:46.333
As long as our financial system demands endless growth,

0:31:46.333,0:31:49.300
reform is unlikely to succeed.

0:31:49.927,0:31:52.542
What then, will the future look like?

0:31:54.033,0:31:56.375
Optimists believe that growth will continue forever,

0:31:56.375,0:31:57.806
without limits.

0:31:59.044,0:32:02.125
Pessimists think that we're heading towards a new Stone Age,

0:32:02.125,0:32:04.100
or extinction.

0:32:05.031,0:32:06.417
The truth may lie between these extremes.

0:32:07.417,0:32:11.964
It is possible that society might fall back to a simpler state,

0:32:12.100,0:32:14.792
one in which energy use is a lot less.

0:32:16.029,0:32:18.095
This would mean a harder life for most.

0:32:18.095,0:32:18.708
More manual labour,

0:32:18.708,0:32:20.417
more farm work,

0:32:20.417,0:32:24.111
and local production of goods, food and services.

0:32:25.079,0:32:28.500
What should a person do to prepare for such a possible future?

0:32:29.083,0:32:33.292
Expect a decrease in supplies of food and goods from far away places.

0:32:34.104,0:32:35.762
Start walking or cycling.

0:32:36.500,0:32:39.079
Get used to using less electricity.

0:32:40.029,0:32:41.100
Get out of debt.

0:32:41.900,0:32:42.893
Try to avoid banks.

0:32:43.400,0:32:45.300
Instead of shopping at big box stores,

0:32:45.301,0:32:48.095
support local businesses.

0:32:48.150,0:32:51.600
Buy food grown locally, at Farmers' Markets.

0:32:51.601,0:32:55.417
Instead of a lawn, consider gardening to grow your own food.

0:32:55.450,0:32:57.100
Learn how to preserve it.

0:32:58.400,0:33:00.000
Consider the use of local currencies

0:33:00.000,0:33:02.500
should the larger economy cease to function,

0:33:02.500,0:33:05.500
and develop greater self sufficiency.

0:33:07.016,0:33:08.500
None of these steps will prevent Collapse,

0:33:08.500,0:33:12.500
but they might improve your chances in a low energy future,

0:33:13.091,0:33:15.417
one in which we will have to be more self reliant,

0:33:15.417,0:33:18.417
as our ancestors once were.