1 00:00:00,501 --> 00:00:04,428 Okay, let's have a look at risk management in practice. 2 00:00:04,457 --> 00:00:08,474 And what I want to do is to start with some basic concepts, 3 00:00:08,485 --> 00:00:14,015 then focus on two difficult areas in the risk process. 4 00:00:14,242 --> 00:00:19,164 So, I guess if I asked you to define the word risk, 5 00:00:19,174 --> 00:00:22,954 you would have some idea of what it meant. 6 00:00:22,967 --> 00:00:26,476 We might not have a formal definition that we could quote, 7 00:00:26,476 --> 00:00:30,253 but we all have something in our minds when we hear the word risk. 8 00:00:30,274 --> 00:00:33,972 This is what we think, and maybe you think of things like this, 9 00:00:34,234 --> 00:00:38,534 maybe you feel like this little guy, facing some big ugly challenge 10 00:00:38,534 --> 00:00:41,791 that you know is just going to squash you flat. 11 00:00:42,066 --> 00:00:43,766 Maybe you feel like this guy. 12 00:00:44,024 --> 00:00:46,489 This is a real job in North Korea, 13 00:00:47,768 --> 00:00:51,367 and his job is to hold the target for other people to shoot at. 14 00:00:51,500 --> 00:00:53,979 Sometimes project managers have the target here. 15 00:00:54,292 --> 00:00:56,911 We feel like everybody is shooting at us in our job. 16 00:00:57,757 --> 00:01:01,987 Or maybe you just know there's something nasty out there, waiting for you. 17 00:01:02,470 --> 00:01:05,700 And maybe that's what you think of when you think of the word risk. 18 00:01:06,361 --> 00:01:09,574 Well that's partly true, but it's not the whole truth. 19 00:01:10,193 --> 00:01:13,625 Risk is not the same as uncertainty. 20 00:01:14,220 --> 00:01:16,963 Risk is related to uncertainty, but they're different. 21 00:01:17,670 --> 00:01:23,826 So all risks are uncertain, but not all uncertainties are risks. 22 00:01:24,653 --> 00:01:27,589 If you have a risk register or a risk list, 23 00:01:27,942 --> 00:01:31,435 you don't have a million items in it, or you shouldn't. 24 00:01:31,962 --> 00:01:34,512 You don't even probably have a thousand items in it, 25 00:01:34,512 --> 00:01:35,788 you have a smaller number. 26 00:01:36,714 --> 00:01:40,007 Although there are millions of uncertainties in the world. 27 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:44,313 So how do we decide which uncertainties we're going to call risk? 28 00:01:44,677 --> 00:01:47,280 And write them down and put them in our risk register 29 00:01:47,548 --> 00:01:50,057 and decide to do something about them. 30 00:01:50,483 --> 00:01:56,362 31 00:01:56,942 --> 00:01:58,133 32 00:01:58,798 --> 00:02:02,948 33 00:02:03,199 --> 00:02:05,274 34 00:02:05,425 --> 00:02:10,019 35 00:02:11,503 --> 00:02:14,783 36 00:02:15,564 --> 00:02:19,014 37 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:23,780 38 00:02:24,498 --> 00:02:26,948 39 00:02:26,948 --> 00:02:30,703 40 00:02:30,703 --> 00:02:32,387 41 00:02:32,888 --> 00:02:35,118 42 00:02:35,427 --> 00:02:37,117 43 00:02:37,259 --> 00:02:38,859 44 00:02:38,979 --> 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134 00:07:16,170 --> 00:07:17,954 135 00:07:18,278 --> 00:07:19,338 136 00:07:19,683 --> 00:07:23,183 137 00:07:23,950 --> 00:07:28,353 138 00:07:28,353 --> 00:07:29,369 139 00:07:30,015 --> 00:07:32,565 140 00:07:32,724 --> 00:07:33,784 141 00:07:33,784 --> 00:07:36,076 142 00:07:36,353 --> 00:07:39,231 143 00:07:39,468 --> 00:07:41,896 144 00:07:42,525 --> 00:07:45,175 145 00:07:45,488 --> 00:07:48,125 146 00:07:48,678 --> 00:07:51,568 147 00:07:51,766 --> 00:07:56,364 148 00:07:56,867 --> 00:07:59,078 149 00:07:59,305 --> 00:08:03,791 150 00:08:04,007 --> 00:08:05,685 151 00:08:05,993 --> 00:08:08,093 152 00:08:08,093 --> 00:08:12,379 153 00:08:13,222 --> 00:08:18,534 154 00:08:18,721 --> 00:08:22,277 155 00:08:23,233 --> 00:08:26,204 156 00:08:26,432 --> 00:08:29,301 157 00:08:30,067 --> 00:08:33,984 158 00:08:34,544 --> 00:08:37,997 159 00:08:38,507 --> 00:08:42,907 160 00:08:42,958 --> 00:08:46,058 161 00:08:46,058 --> 00:08:48,061 162 00:08:48,061 --> 00:08:50,226 163 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--> 00:10:33,104 193 00:10:33,539 --> 00:10:35,899 194 00:10:36,524 --> 00:10:39,564 195 00:10:39,633 --> 00:10:41,753 196 00:10:42,076 --> 00:10:44,416 197 00:10:45,099 --> 00:10:48,459 198 00:10:48,618 --> 00:10:53,058 199 00:10:53,897 --> 00:10:56,747 200 00:10:56,777 --> 00:10:58,477 201 00:10:59,218 --> 00:11:03,528 202 00:11:04,287 --> 00:11:06,837 203 00:11:07,053 --> 00:11:10,133 204 00:11:10,210 --> 00:11:14,390 205 00:11:14,811 --> 00:11:17,061 206 00:11:17,508 --> 00:11:19,384 207 00:11:19,411 --> 00:11:23,294 208 00:11:23,344 --> 00:11:24,974 209 00:11:25,583 --> 00:11:28,920 210 00:11:29,851 --> 00:11:33,641 211 00:11:33,873 --> 00:11:35,923 212 00:11:36,518 --> 00:11:42,048 213 00:11:42,184 --> 00:11:45,604 214 00:11:46,337 --> 00:11:49,897 215 00:11:50,106 --> 00:11:54,076 216 00:11:54,524 --> 00:11:58,914 217 00:11:59,141 --> 00:12:03,691 218 00:12:04,323 --> 00:12:09,183 219 00:12:09,996 --> 00:12:11,759 220 00:12:11,799 --> 00:12:15,409 221 00:12:15,979 --> 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251 00:14:01,402 --> 00:14:06,197 252 00:14:06,351 --> 00:14:10,591 253 00:14:10,618 --> 00:14:14,308 254 00:14:14,344 --> 00:14:18,494 255 00:14:18,977 --> 00:14:21,617 256 00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:26,310 257 00:14:26,590 --> 00:14:30,190 258 00:14:30,363 --> 00:14:32,493 259 00:14:33,496 --> 00:14:35,016 260 00:14:35,016 --> 00:14:38,782 261 00:14:38,803 --> 00:14:40,563 262 00:14:40,563 --> 00:14:44,386 263 00:14:44,607 --> 00:14:48,907 264 00:14:49,088 --> 00:14:54,848 265 00:14:55,249 --> 00:14:58,609 266 00:14:58,609 --> 00:15:00,192 267 00:15:00,235 --> 00:15:04,525 268 00:15:04,533 --> 00:15:06,773 269 00:15:06,888 --> 00:15:08,708 270 00:15:08,708 --> 00:15:11,724 271 00:15:11,724 --> 00:15:15,144 272 00:15:15,398 --> 00:15:18,028 273 00:15:18,262 --> 00:15:20,439 274 00:15:21,479 --> 00:15:24,173 275 00:15:25,393 --> 00:15:29,787 276 00:15:30,007 --> 00:15:33,724 277 00:15:34,434 --> 00:15:39,874 278 00:15:40,249 --> 00:15:42,419 279 00:15:42,419 --> 00:15:45,954 280 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--> 00:17:30,857 310 00:17:30,857 --> 00:17:33,322 311 00:17:34,282 --> 00:17:38,028 312 00:17:38,028 --> 00:17:41,258 313 00:17:42,108 --> 00:17:46,090 314 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:51,758 315 00:17:52,108 --> 00:17:56,480 316 00:17:56,670 --> 00:18:02,360 317 00:18:02,690 --> 00:18:03,707 318 00:18:04,233 --> 00:18:07,063 319 00:18:07,103 --> 00:18:10,486 320 00:18:11,506 --> 00:18:16,153 321 00:18:17,013 --> 00:18:19,838 322 00:18:20,028 --> 00:18:22,299 323 00:18:22,299 --> 00:18:26,080 324 00:18:26,120 --> 00:18:28,436 325 00:18:28,996 --> 00:18:31,730 326 00:18:32,220 --> 00:18:35,120 327 00:18:36,167 --> 00:18:38,557 328 00:18:38,987 --> 00:18:41,806 329 00:18:41,906 --> 00:18:44,055 330 00:18:44,695 --> 00:18:46,139 331 00:18:46,309 --> 00:18:50,130 332 00:18:50,340 --> 00:18:54,924 333 00:18:55,364 --> 00:18:59,907 334 00:19:01,107 --> 00:19:03,516 335 00:19:03,816 --> 00:19:04,816 336 00:19:04,826 --> 00:19:07,094 337 00:19:07,094 --> 00:19:09,692 338 00:19:10,013 --> 00:19:11,302 339 00:19:11,332 --> 00:19:13,622 340 00:19:13,622 --> 00:19:15,393 341 00:19:15,393 --> 00:19:17,200 342 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:19,796 343 00:19:20,056 --> 00:19:21,756 344 00:19:22,806 --> 00:19:26,270 345 00:19:27,250 --> 00:19:30,290 346 00:19:31,220 --> 00:19:32,987 347 00:19:34,007 --> 00:19:36,454 348 00:19:38,234 --> 00:19:39,920 349 00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:44,353 350 00:19:47,818 --> 00:19:49,846 351 00:19:50,236 --> 00:19:53,180 352 00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:57,948 353 00:19:58,578 --> 00:20:00,864 354 00:20:00,864 --> 00:20:03,911 355 00:20:04,621 --> 00:20:06,532 356 00:20:07,342 --> 00:20:09,264 357 00:20:09,614 --> 00:20:14,421 358 00:20:14,741 --> 00:20:18,247 359 00:20:18,354 --> 00:20:21,684 360 00:20:23,144 --> 00:20:25,725 361 00:20:25,725 --> 00:20:28,843 362 00:20:28,843 --> 00:20:30,593 363 00:20:30,593 --> 00:20:33,375 364 00:20:34,155 --> 00:20:36,005 365 00:20:36,365 --> 00:20:38,517 366 00:20:39,197 --> 00:20:40,857 367 00:20:40,857 --> 00:20:44,759 368 00:20:47,039 --> 00:20:50,942 369 00:20:53,781 --> 00:20:57,229 370 00:20:58,069 --> 00:21:01,112 371 00:21:01,502 --> 00:21:03,133 372 00:21:03,423 --> 00:21:08,619 373 00:21:09,743 --> 00:21:16,568 374 00:21:16,568 --> 00:21:20,890 375 00:21:20,980 --> 00:21:22,610 376 00:21:23,549 --> 00:21:28,020 377 00:21:28,019 --> 00:21:31,116 378 00:21:32,016 --> 00:21:35,891 379 00:21:35,891 --> 00:21:38,511 380 00:21:39,010 --> 00:21:40,495 381 00:21:40,588 --> 00:21:42,758 382 00:21:43,588 --> 00:21:47,808 383 00:21:49,153 --> 00:21:52,889 384 00:21:52,889 --> 00:21:54,132 385 00:21:54,132 --> 00:21:57,059 386 00:21:58,496 --> 00:22:01,476 387 00:22:02,355 --> 00:22:06,205 388 00:22:06,699 --> 00:22:09,411 389 00:22:10,033 --> 00:22:14,333 390 00:22:15,333 --> 00:22:16,163 391 00:22:17,019 --> 00:22:20,669 392 00:22:20,669 --> 00:22:22,862 393 00:22:23,521 --> 00:22:24,711 394 00:22:25,518 --> 00:22:27,767 395 00:22:28,749 --> 00:22:31,130 396 00:22:31,467 --> 00:22:35,467 397 00:22:36,273 --> 00:22:37,872 398 00:22:38,638 --> 00:22:40,218 399 00:22:40,977 --> 00:22:44,560 400 00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:45,330 401 00:22:45,330 --> 00:22:49,102 402 00:22:49,523 --> 00:22:53,863 403 00:22:54,543 --> 00:22:57,481 404 00:22:57,916 --> 00:23:02,192 405 00:23:02,473 --> 00:23:05,824 406 00:23:06,997 --> 00:23:10,997 407 00:23:11,444 --> 00:23:14,645 408 00:23:15,708 --> 00:23:18,207 409 00:23:19,518 --> 00:23:23,518 410 00:23:24,109 --> 00:23:26,438 411 00:23:26,944 --> 00:23:27,734 412 00:23:28,042 --> 00:23:30,659 413 00:23:30,659 --> 00:23:33,769 414 00:23:33,769 --> 00:23:37,467 415 00:23:38,177 --> 00:23:39,534 416 00:23:39,534 --> 00:23:43,543 417 00:23:43,608 --> 00:23:45,648 418 00:23:45,648 --> 00:23:49,161 419 00:23:49,958 --> 00:23:53,633 420 00:23:54,344 --> 00:23:57,784 421 00:23:58,875 --> 00:24:02,498 422 00:24:02,498 --> 00:24:06,768 423 00:24:07,226 --> 00:24:09,326 424 00:24:10,261 --> 00:24:12,329 425 00:24:13,011 --> 00:24:17,961 426 00:24:18,257 --> 00:24:22,076 427 00:24:22,076 --> 00:24:24,014 428 00:24:24,789 --> 00:24:31,389 429 00:24:31,886 --> 00:24:33,516 430 00:24:33,855 --> 00:24:35,825 431 00:24:37,614 --> 00:24:40,623 432 00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:42,647 433 00:24:43,252 --> 00:24:48,816 434 00:24:49,367 --> 00:24:51,267 435 00:24:51,377 --> 00:24:53,967 436 00:24:53,967 --> 00:24:57,967 437 00:24:59,118 --> 00:25:02,568 438 00:25:03,769 --> 00:25:08,201 439 00:25:08,201 --> 00:25:11,832 440 00:25:13,088 --> 00:25:17,343 441 00:25:17,343 --> 00:25:18,523 442 00:25:19,284 --> 00:25:23,134 443 00:25:23,134 --> 00:25:24,724 444 00:25:25,481 --> 00:25:27,631 445 00:25:27,631 --> 00:25:30,547 446 00:25:31,465 --> 00:25:33,355 447 00:25:33,444 --> 00:25:36,224 448 00:25:36,784 --> 00:25:41,474 449 00:25:41,579 --> 00:25:42,759 450 00:25:43,134 --> 00:25:45,029 451 00:25:45,337 --> 00:25:47,507 452 00:25:47,857 --> 00:25:50,933 453 00:25:50,933 --> 00:25:54,933