1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:03,050 [Profesor] El camino de la causa al efecto 2 00:00:03,050 --> 00:00:05,539 es oscuro y peligros, 3 00:00:05,539 --> 00:00:08,900 pero las armas de la econometría son eficaces. 4 00:00:09,211 --> 00:00:13,450 El uso eficaz de las diferencias 5 00:00:13,450 --> 00:00:14,450 en diferencias cuando existen tendencias paralelas. 6 00:00:14,450 --> 00:00:16,850 ♪ (música) ♪ 7 00:00:20,100 --> 00:00:21,423 Los maestros de las métricas 8 00:00:21,423 --> 00:00:24,800 buscan comparaciones ceteris paribus convincentes. 9 00:00:25,100 --> 00:00:29,419 La comparación ideal contrasta los grupos de tratamiento y de control 10 00:00:29,419 --> 00:00:30,600 que parecen similares, 11 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:34,630 pero a veces estos tipos de comparaciones son difíciles de comprender. 12 00:00:34,630 --> 00:00:36,805 Cuando los grupos de tratamiento y control 13 00:00:36,805 --> 00:00:40,100 evolucionan de forma similar en ausencia de tratamiento, 14 00:00:40,100 --> 00:00:42,307 incluso si lo hacen desde diferentes puntos de partida, 15 00:00:42,307 --> 00:00:44,900 existe la posibilidad de inferencia causal. 16 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:48,400 El arma que usa la evolución paralela, 17 00:00:48,664 --> 00:00:50,886 los maestros le dicen: "tendencias paralelas", 18 00:00:50,886 --> 00:00:53,233 se llama las Diferencias en diferencias... 19 00:00:53,233 --> 00:00:54,420 [Estudiante susurrando] Las Diferencias en diferencias... 20 00:00:54,420 --> 00:00:56,900 - ...o, para resumir, DD - [Estudiante] Bien. 21 00:00:56,900 --> 00:00:59,987 [Profesor] Veamos cómo DD nos puede ayudar a entender 22 00:00:59,987 --> 00:01:02,888 uno de los eventos económicos más importantes 23 00:01:02,888 --> 00:01:04,370 en la historia de EE. UU. 24 00:01:05,300 --> 00:01:08,300 [Joshua] Veamos a la Gran Depresión, 25 00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:12,200 el peor desastre económico que nuestro país conocido hasta ahora: 26 00:01:13,100 --> 00:01:16,200 el desempleo alcanzó el 25 % en 1933, 27 00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:19,114 un nivel no visto antes ni ahora; 28 00:01:19,473 --> 00:01:22,100 millones de personas perdieron sus hogares y tierras; 29 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:24,737 un fuerte aumento de los suicidios y las familias que padecían hambre 30 00:01:24,737 --> 00:01:26,766 dependían de los comedores y las colas del pan 31 00:01:26,766 --> 00:01:28,155 para sobrevivir. 32 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:31,589 [Profesor] Los economistas discuten intensamente 33 00:01:31,589 --> 00:01:34,000 sobre las causas de la Gran Depresión; 34 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:36,983 sin embargo, muchos están de acuerdo, en que la pieza clave del rompecabezas es 35 00:01:36,983 --> 00:01:39,458 una epidemia de quiebras bancarias 36 00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:41,900 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