WEBVTT 00:00:00.400 --> 00:00:03.050 [Profesor] El camino de la causa al efecto 00:00:03.050 --> 00:00:05.539 es oscuro y peligros, 00:00:05.539 --> 00:00:08.900 pero las armas de la econometría son eficaces. 00:00:09.211 --> 00:00:13.450 El uso eficaz de las diferencias 00:00:13.450 --> 00:00:14.450 en diferencias cuando existen tendencias paralelas. 00:00:14.450 --> 00:00:16.850 ♪ (música) ♪ 00:00:20.100 --> 00:00:21.423 Los maestros de las métricas 00:00:21.423 --> 00:00:24.800 buscan comparaciones ceteris paribus convincentes. 00:00:25.100 --> 00:00:29.419 La comparación ideal contrasta los grupos de tratamiento y de control 00:00:29.419 --> 00:00:30.600 que parecen similares, 00:00:30.600 --> 00:00:34.630 pero a veces estos tipos de comparaciones son difíciles de comprender. 00:00:34.630 --> 00:00:36.805 Cuando los grupos de tratamiento y control 00:00:36.805 --> 00:00:40.100 evolucionan de forma similar en ausencia de tratamiento, 00:00:40.100 --> 00:00:42.307 incluso si lo hacen desde diferentes puntos de partida, 00:00:42.307 --> 00:00:44.900 existe la posibilidad de inferencia causal. 00:00:45.600 --> 00:00:48.400 El arma que usa la evolución paralela, 00:00:48.664 --> 00:00:50.886 los maestros le dicen: "tendencias paralelas", 00:00:50.886 --> 00:00:53.233 se llama las Diferencias en diferencias... 00:00:53.233 --> 00:00:54.420 [Estudiante susurrando] Las Diferencias en diferencias... 00:00:54.420 --> 00:00:56.900 - ...o, para resumir, DD - [Estudiante] Bien. 00:00:56.900 --> 00:00:59.987 [Profesor] Veamos cómo DD nos puede ayudar a entender 00:00:59.987 --> 00:01:02.888 uno de los eventos económicos más importantes 00:01:02.888 --> 00:01:04.370 en la historia de EE. UU. 00:01:05.300 --> 00:01:08.300 [Joshua] Ahora regresa conmigo a la Gran Depresión, 00:01:08.800 --> 00:01:12.200 el peor catástrofe 00:01:13.100 --> 00:01:16.200 00:01:16.600 --> 00:01:19.114 00:01:19.473 --> 00:01:22.100 00:01:22.600 --> 00:01:24.737 00:01:24.737 --> 00:01:26.766 00:01:26.766 --> 00:01:28.155 00:01:29.400 --> 00:01:31.589 00:01:31.589 --> 00:01:34.000 00:01:34.000 --> 00:01:36.983 00:01:36.983 --> 00:01:39.458 00:01:39.800 --> 00:01:41.900 00:01:42.100 --> 00:01:46.513 00:01:46.513 --> 00:01:47.672 00:01:47.672 --> 00:01:48.892 00:01:48.892 --> 00:01:50.616 00:01:52.600 --> 00:01:56.100 00:01:56.400 --> 00:01:58.524 00:01:58.524 --> 00:02:01.100 00:02:01.500 --> 00:02:05.440 00:02:05.440 --> 00:02:08.100 00:02:10.200 --> 00:02:12.872 00:02:12.872 --> 00:02:14.882 00:02:14.882 --> 00:02:16.350 00:02:16.800 --> 00:02:18.262 00:02:18.262 --> 00:02:21.200 00:02:21.200 --> 00:02:24.000 00:02:24.360 --> 00:02:25.743 00:02:25.743 --> 00:02:27.895 00:02:27.895 --> 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