0:00:01.014,0:00:02.301
Hello, everybody.

0:00:02.325,0:00:06.449
I'm honored to be here to talk to you,

0:00:06.473,0:00:11.656
and what I'm going to talk about today[br]is luck and justice

0:00:11.680,0:00:13.602
and the relation between them.

0:00:14.373,0:00:15.530
Some years ago,

0:00:15.554,0:00:18.952
a former student of mine called me

0:00:18.976,0:00:21.014
to talk about his daughter.

0:00:21.038,0:00:23.473
It turns out his daughter[br]was a high school senior,

0:00:23.497,0:00:28.521
was seriously interested[br]in applying to Swarthmore,

0:00:28.545,0:00:29.847
where I taught,

0:00:29.871,0:00:35.323
and he wanted to get my sense[br]of whether she would get in.

0:00:35.347,0:00:39.681
Swarthmore is an extremely[br]hard school to get into.

0:00:39.705,0:00:42.378
So I said, "Well, tell me about her."

0:00:42.402,0:00:44.135
And he told me about her,

0:00:44.159,0:00:46.706
what her grades were like,[br]her board scores,

0:00:46.730,0:00:49.366
her extracurricular activities.

0:00:49.390,0:00:51.446
And she just sounded like a superstar,

0:00:51.470,0:00:53.580
wonderful, wonderful kid.

0:00:54.119,0:00:56.164
So I said, "She sounds fabulous.

0:00:56.188,0:00:58.850
She sounds like just the kind of student

0:00:58.874,0:01:02.140
that Swarthmore would love to have."

0:01:02.164,0:01:05.428
And so he said, "Well, does that mean[br]that she'll get in?"

0:01:06.035,0:01:08.034
And I said, "No.

0:01:08.762,0:01:13.042
There just aren't enough spots[br]in the Swarthmore class

0:01:13.066,0:01:14.757
for everybody who's good.

0:01:14.781,0:01:18.764
There aren't enough spots at Harvard[br]or Yale or Princeton or Stanford.

0:01:18.788,0:01:23.256
There aren't enough spots[br]at Google or Amazon or Apple.

0:01:23.280,0:01:28.100
There aren't enough spots[br]at the TED Conference.

0:01:28.124,0:01:30.340
There are an awful lot of good people,

0:01:30.364,0:01:33.478
and some of them[br]are not going to make it."

0:01:34.621,0:01:37.207
So he said, "Well, what are we[br]supposed to do?"

0:01:38.073,0:01:40.956
And I said, "That's a very good question."

0:01:41.833,0:01:44.100
What are we supposed to do?

0:01:44.124,0:01:48.185
And I know what colleges[br]and universities have done.

0:01:48.209,0:01:51.146
In the interest of fairness,

0:01:51.170,0:01:56.113
what they've done is[br]they've kept ratcheting up the standards

0:01:56.137,0:02:02.230
because it doesn't seem fair[br]to admit less qualified people

0:02:02.254,0:02:04.841
and reject better qualified people,

0:02:04.865,0:02:09.141
so you just keep raising[br]the standards higher and higher

0:02:09.165,0:02:11.394
until they're high enough[br]that you can admit

0:02:11.418,0:02:15.684
only the number of students[br]that you can fit.

0:02:15.708,0:02:22.186
And this violates a lot of people's sense[br]of what justice and fairness is.

0:02:22.210,0:02:25.188
People in American society[br]have different opinions

0:02:25.212,0:02:28.995
about what it means[br]to say that some sort of process is just,

0:02:29.019,0:02:32.813
but I think there's one thing[br]that pretty much everyone agrees on,

0:02:32.837,0:02:35.927
that in a just system, a fair system,

0:02:35.951,0:02:37.846
people get what they deserve.

0:02:38.322,0:02:40.994
And what I was telling my former student

0:02:41.018,0:02:45.160
is that when it comes[br]to college admissions,

0:02:45.184,0:02:49.294
it just isn't true that people[br]get what they deserve.

0:02:49.318,0:02:52.828
Some people get what they deserve,[br]and some people don't,

0:02:52.852,0:02:56.002
and that's just the way it is.

0:02:56.026,0:02:59.649
When you ratchet up requirements[br]as colleges have done,

0:02:59.673,0:03:02.673
what you do is you create[br]a crazy competition

0:03:02.697,0:03:05.062
among high school kids,

0:03:05.086,0:03:08.384
because it's not adequate to be good,

0:03:08.408,0:03:10.411
it's not adequate to be good enough,

0:03:10.435,0:03:14.111
you have to be better than everybody else[br]who is also applying.

0:03:14.135,0:03:16.302
And what this has done,

0:03:16.326,0:03:18.108
or what this has contributed to,

0:03:18.132,0:03:21.680
is a kind of epidemic[br]of anxiety and depression

0:03:21.704,0:03:25.138
that is just crushing our teenagers.

0:03:25.162,0:03:28.491
We are wrecking a generation[br]with this kind of competition.

0:03:28.890,0:03:30.660
As I was thinking about this,

0:03:30.684,0:03:33.743
it occurred to me[br]there's a way to fix this problem.

0:03:34.096,0:03:35.877
And here's what we could do:

0:03:37.056,0:03:39.573
when people apply to college,

0:03:39.597,0:03:45.481
we distinguish between the applicants[br]who are good enough to be successful

0:03:45.505,0:03:47.324
and the ones who aren't,

0:03:47.348,0:03:50.889
and we reject the ones who aren't[br]good enough to be successful,

0:03:50.913,0:03:54.646
and then we take all of the others,[br]and we put their names in a hat,

0:03:54.670,0:03:56.962
and we just pick them out at random

0:03:56.986,0:03:58.921
and admit them.

0:03:58.945,0:04:02.548
In other words, we do[br]college admissions by lottery,

0:04:02.572,0:04:08.224
and maybe we do job offers[br]at tech companies by lottery,

0:04:08.248,0:04:09.605
and -- perish the thought --

0:04:09.629,0:04:14.024
maybe we even make decisions[br]about who gets invited to talk at TED

0:04:14.048,0:04:15.276
by lottery.

0:04:15.672,0:04:17.676
Now, don't misunderstand me,

0:04:17.700,0:04:22.206
a lottery like this is not[br]going to eliminate the injustice.

0:04:22.230,0:04:26.410
There will still be plenty of people[br]who don't get what they deserve.

0:04:26.434,0:04:28.568
But at least it's honest.

0:04:28.592,0:04:34.738
It reveals the injustice for what it is[br]instead of pretending otherwise,

0:04:34.762,0:04:37.964
and it punctures the incredible[br]pressure balloon

0:04:37.988,0:04:42.170
that our high school kids[br]are now living under.

0:04:42.847,0:04:46.673
So why is it that this perfectly[br]reasonable proposal,

0:04:46.697,0:04:48.892
if I do say so myself,

0:04:48.916,0:04:51.165
doesn't get any serious discussion?

0:04:51.776,0:04:53.215
I think I know why.

0:04:53.663,0:04:56.522
I think it's that we hate the idea

0:04:56.546,0:05:03.092
that really important things in life[br]might happen by luck or by chance,

0:05:03.116,0:05:07.694
that really important things in our lives[br]are not under our control.

0:05:07.718,0:05:09.127
I hate that idea.

0:05:09.151,0:05:12.239
It's not surprising[br]that people hate that idea,

0:05:12.263,0:05:15.970
but it simply is the way things are.

0:05:16.759,0:05:21.516
First of all, college admissions[br]already is a lottery.

0:05:21.540,0:05:25.102
It's just that the admissions officers[br]pretend that it isn't.

0:05:25.126,0:05:27.243
So let's be honest about it.

0:05:27.267,0:05:28.716
And second,

0:05:28.740,0:05:32.129
I think if we appreciated[br]that it was a lottery,

0:05:32.153,0:05:36.575
it would also get us to acknowledge[br]the importance of good fortune

0:05:36.599,0:05:38.939
in almost every one of our lives.

0:05:38.963,0:05:41.419
Take me.

0:05:41.981,0:05:46.688
Almost all the most significant[br]events in my life have occurred,

0:05:46.712,0:05:47.912
to a large degree,

0:05:47.936,0:05:49.615
as a result of good luck.

0:05:50.779,0:05:54.078
When I was in seventh grade,[br]my family left New York

0:05:54.102,0:05:56.519
and went to Westchester County.

0:05:56.543,0:05:58.162
Right at the beginning of school,

0:05:58.186,0:06:01.456
I met a lovely young girl[br]who became my friend,

0:06:01.480,0:06:03.873
then she became my best friend,

0:06:03.897,0:06:06.789
then she became my girlfriend

0:06:06.813,0:06:09.243
and then she became my wife.

0:06:09.267,0:06:11.329
Happily, she's been my wife now

0:06:11.353,0:06:13.456
for 52 years.

0:06:13.480,0:06:17.257
I had very little to do with this.[br]This was a lucky accident.

0:06:18.056,0:06:19.525
I went off to college,

0:06:19.549,0:06:25.009
and in my first semester, I signed up[br]for a class in introduction to psychology.

0:06:25.033,0:06:27.129
I didn't even know what psychology was,

0:06:27.153,0:06:29.880
but it fit into my schedule[br]and it met requirements,

0:06:29.904,0:06:31.079
so I took it.

0:06:31.103,0:06:33.429
And by luck, the class was taught

0:06:33.453,0:06:38.215
by a superstar introductory[br]psychology teacher, a legend.

0:06:38.767,0:06:42.012
Because of that, I became[br]a psychology major.

0:06:42.036,0:06:43.861
Went off to graduate school.

0:06:43.885,0:06:45.765
I was finishing up.

0:06:45.789,0:06:48.546
A friend of mine who taught[br]at Swarthmore decided

0:06:48.570,0:06:51.373
he didn't want to be a professor anymore,

0:06:51.397,0:06:54.489
and so he quit to go to medical school.

0:06:55.072,0:06:57.630
The job that he occupied opened up,

0:06:57.654,0:07:00.430
I applied for it, I got it,

0:07:00.454,0:07:02.951
the only job I've ever applied for.

0:07:02.975,0:07:06.378
I spent 45 years teaching at Swarthmore,

0:07:06.402,0:07:10.812
an institution that had an enormous impact[br]on the shape that my career took.

0:07:10.836,0:07:12.879
And to just give one last example,

0:07:12.903,0:07:16.716
I was giving a talk about[br]some of my work in New York,

0:07:16.740,0:07:20.813
and there was somebody in the audience[br]who came up to me after my talk.

0:07:20.837,0:07:22.229
He introduced himself.

0:07:22.253,0:07:23.878
He said, "My name is Chris.

0:07:23.902,0:07:26.212
Would you like to give a talk at TED?"

0:07:27.370,0:07:30.094
And my response was, "What's TED?"

0:07:31.090,0:07:33.356
Well, I mean, he told me,

0:07:33.380,0:07:37.338
and TED then wasn't what it is now.

0:07:37.362,0:07:38.825
But in the intervening years,

0:07:38.849,0:07:41.149
the talks I've given at TED[br]have been watched

0:07:41.173,0:07:43.756
by more than 20 million people.

0:07:44.278,0:07:46.713
So the conclusion is, I'm a lucky man.

0:07:46.737,0:07:48.533
I'm lucky about my marriage.

0:07:48.557,0:07:50.251
I'm lucky about my education.

0:07:50.275,0:07:52.403
I'm lucky about my career.

0:07:52.427,0:07:58.521
And I'm lucky to have had a platform[br]and a voice at something like TED.

0:07:58.545,0:08:00.673
Did I deserve the success I've had?

0:08:00.697,0:08:02.482
Sure I deserve that success,

0:08:02.506,0:08:05.318
just as you probably deserve your success.

0:08:05.342,0:08:10.757
But lots of people also deserve[br]successes like ours

0:08:10.781,0:08:12.718
who haven't had it.

0:08:13.620,0:08:16.276
So do people get what they deserve?

0:08:16.300,0:08:18.310
Is society just?

0:08:19.042,0:08:20.754
Of course not.

0:08:20.778,0:08:26.794
Working hard and playing by the rules[br]is just no guarantee of anything.

0:08:26.818,0:08:31.118
If we appreciate the inevitability[br]of this kind of injustice

0:08:31.142,0:08:33.718
and the centrality of good fortune,

0:08:33.742,0:08:36.171
we might ask ourselves

0:08:36.195,0:08:38.251
what responsibilities do we have

0:08:38.275,0:08:44.056
to the people we are now celebrating[br]as heroes in this time of the pandemic

0:08:44.080,0:08:47.591
when a serious illness[br]befalls their family

0:08:47.615,0:08:51.593
to make sure that they remain whole[br]and their lives aren't ruined

0:08:51.617,0:08:55.641
by the cost of dealing with the illness?

0:08:55.665,0:08:59.466
What do we owe people who struggle,

0:08:59.490,0:09:02.867
work hard and are less lucky than we are?

0:09:03.507,0:09:05.641
About a half century ago,

0:09:05.665,0:09:09.522
the philosopher John Rawls wrote a book[br]called "A Theory of Justice,"

0:09:09.546,0:09:14.808
and in that book, he introduced a concept[br]that he called "the veil of ignorance."

0:09:14.832,0:09:16.422
The question he posed was:

0:09:16.446,0:09:22.126
If you didn't know what your position[br]in society was going to be,

0:09:22.150,0:09:26.166
what kind of a society[br]would you want to create?

0:09:26.190,0:09:27.898
And what he suggested

0:09:27.922,0:09:30.995
is that when we don't know[br]whether we're going to enter society

0:09:31.019,0:09:32.838
at the top or at the bottom,

0:09:32.862,0:09:36.660
what we want is a society[br]that is pretty damn equal,

0:09:36.684,0:09:38.530
so that even the unlucky

0:09:38.554,0:09:43.333
will be able to live decent,[br]meaningful and satisfying lives.

0:09:43.357,0:09:49.338
So bring this back, all of you lucky,[br]successful people, to your communities,

0:09:49.362,0:09:56.340
and do what you can to make sure[br]that we honor and take care of

0:09:56.364,0:10:00.369
people who are just as deserving[br]of success as we are,

0:10:00.393,0:10:02.269
but just not as lucky.

0:10:02.293,0:10:03.707
Thank you.