WEBVTT

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We can all agree

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that the established motto
"Mors tua, vita mea"

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is one of the most ridiculous sayings
the human mind has ever come up with.

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Mother Earth is telling us,
rather she is screaming at us

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that dealing

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with the smallest, most fragile,
and insignificant of its creatures

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is not an act of goodness or heroism.

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It is just pursuing

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our own crass, cynical
and short-term self-interest.

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This applies to the wrongly named problem

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of climate migrants.

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Let's approach it from the point of view

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of our crass, cynical
and short-term self-interest.

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But we must understand this self-interest.

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You'll see something in this slide
that is familiar to you,

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we call it Europe.

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But have you ever thought about
how strange an idea this is?

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All the continents are marked out
along geographical barriers.

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By that very standard, we are Asia.

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We do not exist.

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Yet we want to be a continent,
indeed the Old Continent.

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What is it that characterises us
as different from Asia?

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A culture, we may say,

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that within its diversity
holds a certain unity.

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And without engaging
in ridiculous talks of race,

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a certain physiognomic homogeneity.

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But then, what is the fundamental
determinant of all this?

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Why are we a unit?

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Well, the determinant is the climate.

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Europe is Europe,
with its particular identity,

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because of its peculiar climate.

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And over this climatic peculiarity

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our joint interest was founded.

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But now things are changing.

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This distinguishing climate of Europe -

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I'm over-simplifying,
but is somehow determined

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by the influence
of the Azores anticyclone.

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Which is receding, increasingly
giving way to the African anticyclone.

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What does this mean?

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It means that, if climate
has been so decisive

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in forging our identity, and our concerns,

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a changing climate
will also change these.

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Will we lose our European identity?

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No, we just make room for another one.

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We will enter into the
community of interests

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of those whose lives are governed
by the African anticyclone.

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From this perspective

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we can try to understand
how we'll be affected

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by those people who are
driven away from their land

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by a changing climate
that makes it less and less fruitful.

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But we must also understand
what we are exactly talking about.

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The accepted wisdom
is that the poorer you are,

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the more likely you are to emigrate -

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and this is simply not true.

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The poorest are held back

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by what is technically called
the "poverty trap".

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They have so little,

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their outlook is so short-term

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that they never think about emigrating.

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Their problem is to find
enough rice in the next two hours.

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And only when they start
to become more secure

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they do consider leaving,
going far away to improve their lifestyle.

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Well, those who have enough
to consider making the journey

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have at least a little bit
of freedom of choice

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and are the real migrants.

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Well managed, they can also have

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a positive role for themselves
and their host countries -

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but that's another story.

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The problem is, climate change

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affects the lives of those
who cannot migrate.

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Those who have to leave
just because their field has dried up.

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These are not migrants.

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They are part of an enforced
displacement of population.

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And those who are forced
into such a population movement

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are of no use to themselves,
or anyone else

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as they also fall prey,
vulnerabile as they are,

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to crime, trafficking,
terrorism, and fanaticism.

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What part does the climate play?

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We are used to hear

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that a changing climate triggers
the most extreme, violent phenomena

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and has the biggest impact on our bodies.

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Heat waves puts older people in trouble,

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aerals - zones of incidence of some
infectious diseases - are expanding.

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Then we also hear

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that violent climatic phenomena
damage our infrastructure.

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Hurricanes cause bridges
to collapse, and so on.

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But almost no one speaks

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of the most devastating effect
of climate change.

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So, what is the greenhouse effect?

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The greenhouse effect is the result
of solar energy intake

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that's trapped in our ecosystem
and not radiated back into space.

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There's a lot of it!

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The actual amount was shared
in another TED talk, about 10 years ago,

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by a scientist,
maybe a little controversial

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but still from NASA: James Hansen.

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It is the equivalent of 400,000
atomic bombs detonating every day.

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And where is this energy funneled,

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if not into our ecosystems,
formed over the millennia?

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It turns into disorder,
it turns into unpredictability

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And where the climate
becomes unpredictable,

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society can hardly handle it.

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If I am a farmer, and I can't
predict when it will rain,

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I don't know when to sow.

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But it's not just a rural problem.

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If I manage the Milan water system,

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and I don't know if it'll snow or not,

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I have huge problems planning ahead.

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Here, if it happens to us,
to the extent that it happens now,

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we can still fix it.

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But if it happens
to a farmer in Burkina Faso

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then the problem is no longer economic.

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A failed harvest,
for a farmer in Valpadana

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can bring about economic losses -

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but he's probably insured,
maybe the local government will help.

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For the farmer from Burkina Faso

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it's the difference between sending
their children to school or not.

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And then it becomes
a human rights problem.

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We understand how a person
under such a pressure

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with her future prospects

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and families basic needs at risk

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can fall prey to migration, fanaticism

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destabilisation of all kinds.

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Is this in the future?
Unfortunately no, It's happening now.

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It's already happening in areas

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with a fragile ecosystem

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superimposed onto a fragile society.

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It's happening in the islands,
that are yelling out in despair.

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The Maldives are putting aside
a portion of the proceeds from tourism

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to buy another island in the future.

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It's happening in the river deltas,
that are becoming salinised.

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It's happening in the Arctic.

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The Arctic populations
are all becoming desperate.

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They are losing their culture's
distinctive traits.

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Which turned them
to alcoholism, to suicide.

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It's happening in the mountains,
which are particularly vulnerable.

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And then it's happening
right in front of us.

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The place where it is happening
most visibly, at the moment,

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is right in front of us.

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Just a short stretch of sea
separates us from it.

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Italy stretches out between
the two shores of the Mediterranean

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like a kind of bridge.

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Let me show you a map
of part of northern Africa.

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It consists mostly of desert
that has been desert for a long time.

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In these deserts,
as we learned this morning,

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are populations

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that have found a way of life

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that's compatible
with that stingy ecosystem.

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But in this area
there is not only the desert.

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An area is also there
that roughly coincides with the Sahel,

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where desertification is taking place.

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If we compare these two areas -

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the desert and desertification zone,

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in objective terms

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the desertification zone
is still a bit more generous,

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still a bit richer, than the desert.

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But in this desertification zone

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the cycles of nature
are no longer dependable on.

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There is a chaotic, unregulated climate

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and the inhabitants can
no longer sustain themselves.

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Look where it is,

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and notice that it matches

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the areas where hunger
and conflicts show up the most,

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the areas most afflicted
by the dynamics of terrorism,

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the areas most afflicted
by illicit trafficking of all kinds -

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arms, money, drugs, human beings.

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And take a look at where nine
out of ten migrants come from -

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those who are creating
a bit of a crisis for us right now.

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If that's the current reality,

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where Italy, in its front line role,

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is poised to set a standard,

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but we must not think
that the problem ends there.

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I'll show you two photos.

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One is a map.

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In this map you can see the glaciers
of Hindu Kush, Himalayas, and Pamir.

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These will eventually melt.

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I have no time to explain why,
but they will not melt gradually,

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proportional to the rise in temperature.

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At a certain point
there will be a collapse.

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At some point, the glaciers
in this zone will break down.

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OK, you may say -
but why should we Italians care?

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Well, the fact is,
every time an element is lost

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from this delicate equilibrium
of the biosphere,

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we don't just lose it
and its physical beauty.

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Its function is also lost,
the part it plays

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in maintaining the balance
of the whole system.

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Glaciers perform many functions:
one of these should interests us a lot.

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They regulate the ordered
outflow of water downstream.

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Local rivers have their source
in those glaciers.

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They irrigate plains where one billion 
and four hundred million people live.

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If the glaciers break down here, in
a monsoon area - especially in the south,

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the situation in the valleys
suddenly changes

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from one in which, during the drought,

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the melting glaciers supply
the river with water

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into a disastrous oscillation
between drought and flooding.

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Agriculture and the whole infrastructure
is thrown off balance and much more.

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One billion and four hundred
million people.

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We started to get in trouble
with 380,000 people coming here.

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It all adds up to this.

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The mountains are very fragile ecosystems,

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where very vulnerable people live.

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OK, but they are not so much..

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No no, 22% of the land will be affected
and the 913,000,000 people who live there.

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If they set in motion ...

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And then the other image
shows a flooded subway in New York.

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Rising sea levels
is a very controversial issue.

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It's not clear how bad it will be.

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But now scientists -

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you may have heard

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that a recent report
by the United Nations Panel

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believe it is quite plausible

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that levels will rise by 1,5 metres
by the end of this century.

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So, let's add on
the 42% of the human population

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dwelling along the coasts.

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If the sea rises 1,5 metres
there will be flooded areas.

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But that's not the biggest problem.

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Saltwater intrusion is worse.

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Salt water gets into the soil
and dehydrates it.

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The Romans,

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to make sure a defeated city
would never rise up again,

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poured sea salt on the fields.

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And this is the effect it will have.

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I see from your faces that my
story has really depressed you.

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(Laughter)

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Is all lost? No, we can solve the problem.

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And we can solve it

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in our short-term, cynical
and self-interested way.

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How?

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Well, by reminding ourselves
that we are part of a whole.

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This diagram you see here

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has been developed
by the Barilla foundation.

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It shows two pyramids.

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The first one, the food pyramid,
is very well known.

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It shows the proportion of every type
of food we should be eating

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to stay healthy.

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So, a little red meat,
a little more protein from other sources

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and increasing amounts
of fibre, vegetables, and so on.

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It so happens, if we
juxtapose this pyramid

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over the pyramid showing
the impact on the ecosystem

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of the production
of each category of food,

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they match almost perfectly.

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That is, the more a certain type of food

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is consumed - in excess,
I'm not vegetarian -

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the more it damages 
both a person and the ecosystem.

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Hmm, what a spectacular coincidence
for the food sector!

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Only, it's not a coincidence

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and it's not just under
the industry's control.

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It is a paradigm of our relationship
with the ecosystem

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and you don't have to turn
to otherworldly wisdom.

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It is the result of co-evolution.

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It's just normal for us
to be completely healthy

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when we are "tuned"
with the system we are part of.

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If you do not believe me, try it yourself.

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Do a little exercise.

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Make a pyramid of your personal transport.

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You'll notice that the better
your choice of transport

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it is for your health,
for your integral well-being,

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for your social life, your pace of life,

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the more sustainable it gets.

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And this is a bit true in all areas.

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But why am I telling you this?

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Because this gives us a roadmap.

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It gives us a rule.

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What's really good for you,
is good for the planet too.

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Let's move on from the individual
to the global, geostrategic view.

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If the West, as if by magic, decided
to eat according to this pyramid,

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not only would we all be better off

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but it would help to stop
the polarisation of the world

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between the one billion
five hundred million people

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who suffer from disease,
due to poor or excessive nutrition,

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and the 814 million people
who go to bed hungry.

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What does this all mean?

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It means that sustainability
and well-being

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turn into social justice
and redistribution.

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Those resources, consumed in
excess by some, are freed up

00:15:13.462 --> 00:15:15.860
and become available to others.

00:15:15.860 --> 00:15:20.120
A professor from Piacenza
calculated exactly how much.

00:15:20.650 --> 00:15:24.210
If every person registered
as pathologically obese

00:15:24.210 --> 00:15:26.030
by western health services

00:15:26.393 --> 00:15:29.588
abstained from a single can
of fizzy drink a day,

00:15:30.680 --> 00:15:34.257
that would free up enough resources
to feed 56 million people.

00:15:34.257 --> 00:15:36.785
So, my individual well-being
becomes sustainability,

00:15:36.785 --> 00:15:40.040
sustainability becomes fairness,
and fairness becomes peace,

00:15:40.050 --> 00:15:43.364
because a world where all children
have access to decent nutrition

00:15:43.364 --> 00:15:47.260
is also a world that kicks sand
in the face of Boko Haram, ISIS, etc.

00:15:47.290 --> 00:15:51.352
And so I propose this equation,
the Earth equation.

00:15:52.318 --> 00:15:55.600
It seems very personal - my life
in harmony with the planet;

00:15:55.600 --> 00:15:57.552
but it is really a political choice.

00:15:57.552 --> 00:15:58.896
We can apply this method.

00:15:59.200 --> 00:16:02.870
These crescents you see
dug in the ground are in Burkina Faso

00:16:02.870 --> 00:16:05.441
and is a system by which we can recover

00:16:05.640 --> 00:16:10.186
one hectare of desert for $130.

00:16:11.680 --> 00:16:13.608
By doing this, what do we achieve?

00:16:14.050 --> 00:16:16.320
We regenerate this land for agriculture.

00:16:16.320 --> 00:16:20.050
and we also create a extraordinarily
efficient carbon sink

00:16:20.050 --> 00:16:21.993
as the vegetation grown back.

00:16:22.380 --> 00:16:24.630
Not only that: we protect biodiversity.

00:16:24.650 --> 00:16:27.065
We consolidate the water / salt balance

00:16:27.065 --> 00:16:29.255
and reduce heat locally

00:16:29.255 --> 00:16:32.050
as vegetation brings down the temperature

00:16:32.060 --> 00:16:36.040
and re-start all the market,
the business activity, etc.

00:16:36.040 --> 00:16:41.000
In other words, we disrupt
the trigger of fanatism,

00:16:41.000 --> 00:16:46.380
the mechanism that feeds
human trafficking and war.

00:16:47.000 --> 00:16:48.020
You don't believe me?

00:16:48.230 --> 00:16:51.755
This is the real result.

00:16:52.720 --> 00:16:55.590
If we don't do this, what happens?

00:16:55.650 --> 00:16:58.010
We leave these countries
prey to instability,

00:16:58.020 --> 00:17:01.930
so they can no longer cooperate
in the recovery of the climate.

00:17:03.090 --> 00:17:05.440
They are excluded from the communal battle

00:17:05.450 --> 00:17:09.510
to maintain a climate
that is still manageable.

00:17:09.589 --> 00:17:11.345
But leaving them out in the cold,

00:17:11.345 --> 00:17:14.450
none of us will have a manageable climate,

00:17:14.450 --> 00:17:16.190
because these countries contribute

00:17:16.190 --> 00:17:19.056
to manageable sustainably.

00:17:19.380 --> 00:17:20.890
So what happens?

00:17:20.960 --> 00:17:24.257
If we leave them to their own devices,

00:17:24.259 --> 00:17:26.608
we create the future

00:17:26.608 --> 00:17:30.860
that the IPCC and the UN panel
described four days ago:

00:17:30.870 --> 00:17:33.066
2040, the catastrophe.

00:17:33.400 --> 00:17:37.260
It's just our own crass,
cynical, selfish interests.

00:17:37.260 --> 00:17:40.440
We must take care
of the weakest and poorest.

00:17:40.440 --> 00:17:41.450
Thank you.

00:17:43.430 --> 00:17:44.440
(Applause)