Be suspicious of simple stories
-
0:00 - 0:03I was told to come here
and tell you all stories, -
0:03 - 0:08but what I'd like to do is instead
tell you why I'm suspicious of stories, -
0:08 - 0:10why stories make me nervous.
-
0:10 - 0:13In fact, the more inspired
a story makes me feel, -
0:13 - 0:15very often, the more nervous I get.
-
0:15 - 0:17(Laughter)
-
0:17 - 0:19So the best stories
are often the trickiest ones. -
0:19 - 0:23The good and bad things about stories
is that they are a kind of filter. -
0:23 - 0:26They take a lot of information,
and they leave some of it out, -
0:26 - 0:27and they keep some of it in.
-
0:27 - 0:32But the thing about this filter is
that it always leaves the same things in. -
0:32 - 0:35You're always left
with the same few simple stories. -
0:35 - 0:37There is the old saying
that just about every story -
0:37 - 0:41can be summed up
as "a stranger came to town." -
0:41 - 0:42There is a book by Christopher Booker,
-
0:42 - 0:45where he claims there are really
just seven types of stories. -
0:45 - 0:48There is monster, rags to riches, quest,
-
0:48 - 0:52voyage and return,
comedy, tragedy, rebirth. -
0:52 - 0:54You don't have to agree
with that list exactly, -
0:54 - 0:58but the point is this:
if you think in terms of stories, -
0:58 - 1:02you're telling yourself the same things
over and over again. -
1:02 - 1:05There was a study done,
we asked some people-- -
1:11 - 1:14people were asked to describe their lives.
-
1:14 - 1:16When asked to describe their lives,
-
1:16 - 1:19what is interesting
is how few people said "mess". -
1:19 - 1:20(Laughter)
-
1:20 - 1:24It's probably the best answer,
I don't mean that in a bad way. -
1:24 - 1:27"Mess" can be liberating,
"mess" can be empowering, -
1:27 - 1:30"mess" can be a way
of drawing upon multiple strengths. -
1:30 - 1:35But what people wanted to say was,
"My life is a journey." -
1:35 - 1:4051% wanted to turn
his or her life into a story. -
1:40 - 1:4411% said, "My life is a battle."
Again, that is a kind of story. -
1:44 - 1:488% said, "My life is a novel."
5% said, "My life is a play." -
1:48 - 1:52I don't think anyone said,
"My life is a reality TV show." -
1:52 - 1:53(Laughter)
-
1:53 - 1:57But again, we're imposing order
on the mess we observe, -
1:57 - 1:58and it's taking the same patterns,
-
1:58 - 2:01and the thing is when something
is in the form of a story, -
2:01 - 2:04often, we remember it when we shouldn't.
-
2:04 - 2:05So how many of you know the story
-
2:05 - 2:08about George Washington
and the cherry tree? -
2:08 - 2:10It's not obvious that is
exactly what happened. -
2:10 - 2:15The story of Paul Revere, it's not obvious
that that is exactly the way it happened. -
2:15 - 2:19So again, we should be
suspicious of stories. -
2:19 - 2:22We're biologically programmed
to respond to them. -
2:22 - 2:25They contain a lot of information.
They have social power. -
2:25 - 2:27They connect us to other people.
-
2:27 - 2:30So they are like a candy that we're fed
-
2:30 - 2:34when we consume political information,
when we read novels. -
2:34 - 2:37When we read non-fiction books,
we're really being fed stories. -
2:37 - 2:39Non-fiction is, in a sense,
the new fiction. -
2:39 - 2:42The book may happen to say true things,
-
2:42 - 2:47but again, everything's taking
the same form of these stories. -
2:47 - 2:50So what are the problems
of relying too heavily on stories? -
2:50 - 2:52You view your life like this
-
2:52 - 2:56instead of the mess
that it is or it ought to be. -
2:56 - 3:00But more specifically,
I think of a few major problems -
3:00 - 3:03when we think too much
in terms of narrative. -
3:03 - 3:05First, narratives tend to be too simple,
-
3:05 - 3:08for the point of a narrative
is to strip it away, -
3:08 - 3:10not just into 18 minutes,
-
3:10 - 3:13but most narratives
you can present in a sentence or two. -
3:13 - 3:15When you strip away detail,
-
3:15 - 3:18you tend to tell stories
in terms of good versus evil, -
3:18 - 3:22whether it's a story about your own life
or a story about politics. -
3:23 - 3:26I know some things actually are
good versus evil, we all know this, right? -
3:26 - 3:28But I think, as a general rule,
-
3:28 - 3:32we're too inclined to tell
the good versus evil story. -
3:32 - 3:33As a simple rule of thumb,
-
3:33 - 3:38just imagine that every time
you're telling a good versus evil story, -
3:38 - 3:42you're basically lowering your IQ
by ten points or more. -
3:42 - 3:45If you just adopt that
as a kind of inner mental habit, -
3:45 - 3:48it's, in my view, one way to get
a lot smarter pretty quickly. -
3:48 - 3:50You don't have to read any books.
-
3:50 - 3:52Just imagine yourself pressing a button
-
3:52 - 3:55every time you tell
the good versus evil story, -
3:55 - 3:56and by pressing that button,
-
3:56 - 3:59you're lowering your IQ
by ten points or more. -
3:59 - 4:01Another set of stories that are popular--
-
4:01 - 4:05if you know Oliver Stone's movies,
or Michael Moore's movies, -
4:05 - 4:08you can't make a movie and say:
"It was all a big accident." -
4:08 - 4:13No, it has to be a conspiracy,
people plotting together, -
4:13 - 4:16because in a story,
a story is about intention. -
4:16 - 4:21A story is not about spontaneous order
or complex human institutions -
4:21 - 4:24which are the product of human action,
but not of human design. -
4:24 - 4:28No, a story is about evil people
plotting together. -
4:28 - 4:30So when you hear stories about plots,
-
4:30 - 4:33or even stories about good people
plotting things together, -
4:33 - 4:36just like when you're watching movies,
-
4:36 - 4:38this, again, is reason to be suspicious.
-
4:38 - 4:40As a good rule of thumb, if you're asking:
-
4:40 - 4:44"When I hear a story, when should I
be especially suspicious?" -
4:44 - 4:49If you hear a story and you think:
"Wow, that would make a great movie!" -
4:49 - 4:50(Laughter)
-
4:50 - 4:54That's when the "uh-oh" reaction
should pop in a bit more, -
4:54 - 4:56and you should start thinking in terms
-
4:56 - 4:58of how the whole thing
is maybe a bit of a mess. -
4:59 - 5:04Another common story or storyline is
the claim that we "have to get tough". -
5:05 - 5:08You'll hear this in so many contexts.
-
5:08 - 5:13We have to get tough with the banks.
We had to get tough with the labor unions. -
5:13 - 5:15We need to get tough
with some other country, -
5:15 - 5:19some foreign dictator,
someone we're negotiating with. -
5:19 - 5:21Again, the point is not
against getting tough. -
5:21 - 5:23Sometimes we should get tough.
-
5:23 - 5:26That we got tough with the Nazis
was a good thing. -
5:27 - 5:32But this is again a story we fall back
upon all too readily, all too quickly. -
5:32 - 5:34When we don't really know
why something happened, -
5:34 - 5:38we blame someone, and we say:
"We need to get tough with them!" -
5:38 - 5:41As if it had never occurred
to your predecessor, -
5:41 - 5:43this idea of getting tough.
-
5:43 - 5:46I view it usually
as a kind of mental laziness. -
5:46 - 5:49It's a simple story you tell:
"We need to get tough, -
5:49 - 5:52we needed to get tough,
we will have to get tough." -
5:52 - 5:55Usually, that is a kind of warning signal.
-
5:56 - 5:59Another kind of problem with stories is
-
5:59 - 6:02you can only fit so many stories
into your mind at once, -
6:02 - 6:05or in the course of a day,
or even over the course of a lifetime. -
6:05 - 6:08So your stories are serving
too many purposes. -
6:08 - 6:11For instance, just to get
out of bed in the morning, -
6:11 - 6:13you tell yourself the story
-
6:13 - 6:17that your job is really important,
what you're doing is really important -
6:17 - 6:18(Laughter)
-
6:18 - 6:24and maybe it is, but I tell myself
that story even when it's not. -
6:25 - 6:27And you know what? That story works.
-
6:27 - 6:29It gets me out of bed.
-
6:29 - 6:31It's a kind of self-deception,
-
6:31 - 6:34but the problem comes
when I need to change that story. -
6:34 - 6:38The whole point of the story is
that I grab onto it and I hold it, -
6:38 - 6:40and it gets me out of bed.
-
6:40 - 6:43So when I'm really doing something
that is actually just a waste of time, -
6:43 - 6:45in my mess of a life,
-
6:45 - 6:49I'm too tied into my story
that got me out of bed, -
6:49 - 6:53and ideally, I ought to have some
very complex story map in my mind, -
6:53 - 6:57you know, with combinatorials
and a matrix of computation, and the like, -
6:57 - 6:59but that is not how stories work.
-
6:59 - 7:01Stories in order to work
have to be simple, -
7:01 - 7:05easily grasped, easily told
to others, easily remembered. -
7:05 - 7:08So stories will serve dual
and conflicting purposes, -
7:08 - 7:11and very often they will lead us astray.
-
7:11 - 7:13I used to think I was
within the camp of economists, -
7:13 - 7:18I was one of the good guys,
and I was allied with other good guys, -
7:18 - 7:21and we were fighting
the ideas of the bad guys. -
7:21 - 7:22I used to think that!
-
7:23 - 7:25And probably, I was wrong.
-
7:25 - 7:27Maybe sometimes, I'm one of the good guys,
-
7:27 - 7:31but on some issues, I finally realized:
"Hey, I wasn't one of the good guys." -
7:31 - 7:35I'm not sure I was the bad guy
in the sense of having evil intent, -
7:35 - 7:38but it was very hard for me
to get away with that story. -
7:40 - 7:44One interesting thing
about cognitive biases -
7:44 - 7:46is they are the subject
of so many books these days. -
7:46 - 7:51There's the Nudge book,
the Sway book, the Blink book, -
7:51 - 7:53like the one-title book,
-
7:53 - 7:56all about the ways in which we screw up.
-
7:56 - 7:57And there are so many ways,
-
7:57 - 8:01but what I find interesting
is that none of these books identify -
8:01 - 8:05what, to me, is the single, central,
most important way we screw up, -
8:05 - 8:09and that is that we tell
ourselves too many stories, -
8:09 - 8:11or we are too easily seduced by stories.
-
8:11 - 8:14Why don't these books tell us that?
-
8:14 - 8:17It's because the books themselves
are all about stories. -
8:17 - 8:21The more of these books you read,
you're learning about some of your biases, -
8:21 - 8:25but you're making some
of your other biases essentially worse. -
8:25 - 8:28So the books themselves
are part of your cognitive bias. -
8:29 - 8:31Often, people buy them
as a kind of talisman, like: -
8:31 - 8:35"I bought this book. I won't be
'Predictably Irrational'." -
8:35 - 8:38(Laughter)
-
8:38 - 8:40It's like people want to hear the worst,
-
8:40 - 8:44so psychologically, they can prepare
for it or defend against it. -
8:44 - 8:47It's why there is
such a market for pessimism. -
8:47 - 8:50But to think that by buying the book
gets you somewhere, -
8:50 - 8:52that's maybe the bigger fallacy.
-
8:52 - 8:55It's just like the evidence that shows
that the most dangerous people -
8:55 - 8:58are those who have been taught
some financial literacy. -
8:58 - 9:00They're the ones who go out
and make the worst mistakes. -
9:00 - 9:03It's the people who realize
they don't know anything at all, -
9:03 - 9:05that end up doing pretty well.
-
9:06 - 9:07A third problem with stories
-
9:07 - 9:11is that outsiders
manipulate us using stories, -
9:11 - 9:14and we all like to think advertising
only works on the other guy, -
9:14 - 9:18but, of course, that's not how it is,
advertising works on all of us. -
9:18 - 9:21So if you're too attached to stories,
-
9:21 - 9:25what will happen is people
selling products come along, -
9:25 - 9:27and they will bundle
their product with a story. -
9:27 - 9:29You're like, "Hey, a free story!"
-
9:29 - 9:31And you end up buying the product,
-
9:31 - 9:33because the product
and the story go together. -
9:33 - 9:34(Laugther)
-
9:34 - 9:36If you think about how capitalism works,
-
9:36 - 9:37there is a bias here.
-
9:37 - 9:40Let's consider two kinds
of stories about cars. -
9:40 - 9:43Story A is: "Buy this car,
-
9:43 - 9:47and you will have beautiful, romantic
partners and a fascinating life." -
9:47 - 9:49(Laughter)
-
9:49 - 9:51There are a lot of people
-
9:51 - 9:53who have a financial incentive
to promote that story. -
9:53 - 9:55But, say, the alternative story is:
-
9:56 - 10:00"You don't actually need a car
as nice as your income would indicate. -
10:00 - 10:03What you usually do is look
at what your peers do and copy them. -
10:03 - 10:05That is a good heuristic
for lots of problems, -
10:05 - 10:08but when it comes to cars,
just buy a Toyota." -
10:08 - 10:10(Laughter)
-
10:10 - 10:11Maybe Toyota has an incentive there,
-
10:11 - 10:15but even Toyota is making
more money off the luxury cars, -
10:15 - 10:17and less money off the cheaper cars.
-
10:17 - 10:19So if you think which set of stories
you end up hearing, -
10:19 - 10:23you end up hearing the glamor stories,
the seductive stories, -
10:23 - 10:25and again I'm telling you,
don't trust them. -
10:25 - 10:29There are people using
your love of stories to manipulate you. -
10:30 - 10:32Pull back and say:
-
10:32 - 10:33"What are the messages,
-
10:33 - 10:35what are the stories
that no one has an incentive to tell?" -
10:35 - 10:40Start telling yourself those, and then see
if any of your decisions change. -
10:40 - 10:42That is one simple way.
-
10:42 - 10:45You can never get out of the pattern
of thinking in terms of stories, -
10:45 - 10:49but you can improve the extent
to which you think in stories, -
10:49 - 10:51and make some better decisions.
-
10:52 - 10:55So if I'm thinking about this talk,
I'm wondering, of course, -
10:55 - 10:57what is it you take away from this talk?
-
10:57 - 11:01What story do you take away
from Tyler Cowen? -
11:02 - 11:05One story you might be
like the story of the quest. -
11:05 - 11:07"Tyler was a man on a quest.
-
11:07 - 11:13Tyler came here, and he told us
not to think so much in terms of stories." -
11:13 - 11:16That would be a story
you could tell about this talk. -
11:16 - 11:18(Laughter)
-
11:18 - 11:20It would fit a pretty well-known pattern.
-
11:20 - 11:23You might remember it.
You could tell it to other people. -
11:23 - 11:24"This weird guy came, and he said,
-
11:24 - 11:28'Don't think in terms of stories.
Let me tell you what happened today!'" -
11:28 - 11:29(Laughter)
-
11:29 - 11:30And you tell your story.
-
11:30 - 11:32(Laugther)
-
11:33 - 11:37Another possibility is
you might tell a story of rebirth. -
11:38 - 11:42You might say, "I used to think
too much in terms of stories -
11:42 - 11:45(Laughter)
-
11:45 - 11:47but then I heard Tyler Cowen
-
11:47 - 11:48(Laughter)
-
11:48 - 11:51and now I think less in terms of stories!"
-
11:51 - 11:54That too is a narrative you will remember,
-
11:54 - 11:58you can tell to other people,
and again, it may stick. -
11:58 - 12:03You also could tell
a story of deep tragedy. -
12:03 - 12:05"This guy Tyler Cowen came
-
12:05 - 12:06(Laughter)
-
12:06 - 12:09and he told us not to think
in terms of stories, -
12:09 - 12:11but all he could do was tell us stories
-
12:11 - 12:12(Laughter)
-
12:12 - 12:16about how other people think
too much in terms of stories." -
12:16 - 12:18(Laughter)
-
12:18 - 12:23So, today, which is it?
Is it like quest, rebirth, tragedy? -
12:24 - 12:26Or maybe some combination of the three?
-
12:27 - 12:29I'm really not sure,
and I'm not here to tell you -
12:29 - 12:33to burn your DVD player
and throw out your Tolstoy. -
12:34 - 12:38To think in terms of stories
is fundamentally human. -
12:38 - 12:43There is a Gabriel Garcia Marquez
memoir "Living to Tell the Tale" -
12:44 - 12:47that we use memory in stories
to make sense of what we've done, -
12:47 - 12:52to give meaning to our lives, to establish
connections with other people. -
12:52 - 12:56None of this will go away,
should go away, or can go away. -
12:56 - 13:01But again, as an economist,
I'm thinking about life on the margin, -
13:01 - 13:03the extra decision.
-
13:03 - 13:07Should we think more in terms of stories,
or less in terms of stories? -
13:07 - 13:11When we hear stories,
should we be more suspicious? -
13:11 - 13:14And what kind of stories
should we be suspicious of? -
13:14 - 13:19Again, I'm telling you it's the stories,
very often, that you like the most, -
13:19 - 13:22that you find the most rewarding,
the most inspiring. -
13:22 - 13:26The stories that don't focus
on opportunity cost, -
13:26 - 13:30or the complex, unintended
consequences of human action, -
13:30 - 13:34because that very often
does not make for a good story. -
13:34 - 13:39So often a story is a story
of triumph, a story of struggle; -
13:39 - 13:43there are opposing forces,
which are either evil or ignorant; -
13:43 - 13:46there is a person on a quest,
someone making a voyage, -
13:46 - 13:48and a stranger coming to town.
-
13:49 - 13:54And those are your categories,
but don't let them make you too happy. -
13:55 - 13:56(Laughter)
-
13:57 - 13:59As an alternative,
-
14:00 - 14:03at the margin
- again, no burning of Tolstoy - -
14:03 - 14:06but just be a little more messy.
-
14:07 - 14:11If I actually had to live those journeys,
and quests, and battles, -
14:11 - 14:13that would be so oppressive to me!
-
14:13 - 14:16It's like, my goodness,
can't I just have my life -
14:16 - 14:20in its messy, ordinary
- I hesitate to use the word - glory -
14:20 - 14:22but that it's fun for me?
-
14:22 - 14:24Do I really have to follow
some kind of narrative? -
14:24 - 14:25Can't I just live?
-
14:26 - 14:29So be more comfortable with messy.
-
14:29 - 14:32Be more comfortable with agnostic,
-
14:32 - 14:35and I mean this about the things
that make you feel good. -
14:35 - 14:38It's so easy to pick out
a few areas to be agnostic in, -
14:38 - 14:39and then feel good about it,
-
14:39 - 14:43like, "I am agnostic
about religion, or politics." -
14:43 - 14:47It's a kind of portfolio move you make
to be more dogmatic elsewhere, right? -
14:47 - 14:49(Laughter)
-
14:49 - 14:50Sometimes,
-
14:50 - 14:54the most intellectually trustworthy people
are the ones who pick one area, -
14:54 - 14:57and they are totally dogmatic in that,
so pig-headedly unreasonable, -
14:57 - 15:00that you think,
"How can they possibly believe that?" -
15:00 - 15:04But it soaks up their stubbornness,
-
15:04 - 15:07and then, on other things,
they can be pretty open-minded. -
15:07 - 15:11So don't fall into the trap of thinking
because you're agnostic on some things, -
15:11 - 15:13that you're being fundamentally reasonable
-
15:13 - 15:16about your self-deception, your stories,
and your open-mindedness. -
15:16 - 15:18(Laughter)
-
15:19 - 15:23[Think about] this idea of hovering,
of epistemological hovering, -
15:23 - 15:26and messiness, and incompleteness,
-
15:26 - 15:29[and how] not everything
ties up into a neat bow, -
15:29 - 15:32and you're really not on a journey here.
-
15:32 - 15:35You're here for some
messy reason or reasons, -
15:35 - 15:39and maybe you don't know what it is,
and maybe I don't know what it is, -
15:39 - 15:42but anyway, I'm happy to be invited,
and thank you all for listening. -
15:42 - 15:43(Laughter)
-
15:43 - 15:45(Applause)
- Title:
- Be suspicious of simple stories
- Speaker:
- Tyler Cowen
- Description:
-
Like all of us, economist Tyler Cowen loves a good story. But in this intriguing talk, he asks us to step away from thinking of our lives -- and our messy, complicated irrational world -- in terms of a simple narrative.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 15:57
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for Be suspicious of simple stories | ||
Brian Greene approved English subtitles for Be suspicious of simple stories | ||
Brian Greene accepted English subtitles for Be suspicious of simple stories | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for Be suspicious of simple stories | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for Be suspicious of simple stories | ||
Amara Bot edited English subtitles for Be suspicious of simple stories |