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04-14 Total_Available_Market

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    The first word we want to think about
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    is something called Total Available Market,
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    and I like to think of Total Available Market as a pie.
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    It's the entire pie.
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    Total Available Market says, look,
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    how many people or companies or whatever your unit of sale is
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    would want or need this product,
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    and how large is the market
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    in dollars or units
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    if they all bought?
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    That's just a pretty nice calculation.
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    And the question is, okay,
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    how would I find out?
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    In different industries, there are analysts that
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    specialize in vertical markets and enterprise software,
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    it's Gartner and Forrester; in video games,
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    it's the MPD Group; in consumer research,
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    it's Nielsen; if you want to understand
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    how many mobile startups there are,
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    you go to the Mobile Startup Genome Project, et cetera.
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    So you need to ask some questions as
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    which industry analysts kind of follow your specific domain,
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    and then also Wall Street analysts follow competitors in this business.
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    That is, they follow whoever's public;
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    in fact, some of them write very nice research reports.
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    If you have access to university library or a friendly broker,
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    you can get a great free industry analyst report
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    and I would be asking others, as well,
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    and Google is your best friend here.
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    I truly would be spending time trying to understand,
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    is this a $1 billion market,
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    and by the way, if you throw out those numbers,
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    the first thing I'm going to ask you is,
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    well, that's nice, but break it down for me.
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    Help me understand how many users,
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    who are the players, what are the competitors, et cetera.
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    You need to understand this total available market pie
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    in some detail before I'll let you get to the next step,
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    and the next step is
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    how big is my slice?
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    And we tend to use a fancy word for that:
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    What's the served available market?
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    The served available market means
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    okay, well instead of the theory that there are 7 billion people in the world,
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    how many people really can use a mobile app?
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    Oh, well a mobile app is kind of dependent on
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    how many people have mobile Smart Phones,
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    and if I'm making the mobile app for, let's say an Android platform,
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    then the first question is
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    how many theoretical people are going to be using
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    Android platforms in this year and in the next 5?
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    Oh, now I can start estimating
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    what's my served available market.
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    And so many people have the money to buy the product;
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    that is, are you a 99-cent product
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    or are you a $99 product?
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    Now you're narrowing the market based on pricing or availability
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    and you want to do some thought experiments like
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    how large would the market be in dollars
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    if they all bought--
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    if everyone in the served available market bought,
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    how large would this be,
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    and this is kind of your first test
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    to say, "Oh" or "Wow."
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    So you want to understand this before dollars and units.
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    How do you find out?
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    Well, this is one where you're really out of the building and talking to customers.
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    Then I think of this again using the pie analogy
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    the first step was
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    try to understand the number of people in the world,
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    but now we can narrow it down if I have the Android app
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    to number of Android phones--capable phones,
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    and then down to how many would buy it at my price,
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    but now we really want to get pretty specific.
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    Who example am I going to sell in years 1, 2, and 3?
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    How many customers is that?
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    How large is the market if they all bought?
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    That is, what we now are coming up with
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    is the total number of dollars
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    if you had 100% market share,
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    your revenue isn't going to exceed this number,
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    and many units would that be?
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    Again, how do I find out?
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    Boy, this is really about
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    getting out of the building and talking to customers
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    and talking to potential channel partners,
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    and talking to competitors, et cetera.
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    You really, at the end of this exercise,
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    now have the first pass hypothesis
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    about is this business model canvas
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    worth executing for the next couple of years?
Cím:
04-14 Total_Available_Market
Leírás:

04-14 Total_Available_Market

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Video Language:
English
Team:
Udacity
Projekt:
EP245 - Lean Launchpad
Duration:
03:55
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