The new urgency of climate change
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0:00 - 0:02Chris Anderson: Al, welcome.
-
0:02 - 0:04So look, just six months ago --
-
0:05 - 0:08it seems a lifetime ago,
but it really was just six months ago -- -
0:09 - 0:15climate seemed to be on the lips
of every thinking person on the planet. -
0:15 - 0:19Recent events seem to have swept it
all away from our attention. -
0:19 - 0:21How worried are you about that?
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0:23 - 0:26Al Gore: Well, first of all Chris,
thank you so much for inviting me -
0:26 - 0:27to have this conversation.
-
0:27 - 0:31People are reacting differently
-
0:31 - 0:32to the climate crisis
-
0:32 - 0:35in the midst of these
other great challenges -
0:35 - 0:38that have taken over our awareness,
-
0:38 - 0:39appropriately.
-
0:40 - 0:44One reason is something
that you mentioned. -
0:44 - 0:47People get the fact
that when scientists are warning us -
0:47 - 0:50in ever more dire terms
-
0:50 - 0:52and setting their hair
on fire, so to speak, -
0:52 - 0:55it's best to listen
to what they're saying, -
0:55 - 0:59and I think that lesson
has begun to sink in in a new way. -
0:59 - 1:01Another similarity, by the way,
-
1:01 - 1:06is that the climate crisis,
like the COVID-19 pandemic, -
1:07 - 1:09has revealed in a new way
-
1:09 - 1:14the shocking injustices
and inequalities and disparities -
1:14 - 1:18that affect communities of color
-
1:18 - 1:20and low-income communities.
-
1:21 - 1:22There are differences.
-
1:22 - 1:27The climate crisis has effects
that are not measured in years, -
1:27 - 1:30as the pandemic is,
-
1:30 - 1:34but consequences that are measured
in centuries and even longer. -
1:34 - 1:40And the other difference is that
instead of depressing economic activity -
1:40 - 1:42to deal with the climate crisis,
-
1:42 - 1:47as nations around the world
have had to do with COVID-19, -
1:47 - 1:51we have the opportunity to create
tens of millions of new jobs. -
1:51 - 1:54That sounds like a political phrasing,
-
1:54 - 1:57but it's literally true.
-
1:57 - 1:58For the last five years,
-
1:58 - 2:01the fastest-growing job in the US
has been solar installer. -
2:02 - 2:06The second-fastest has been
wind turbine technician. -
2:06 - 2:11And the "Oxford Review of Economics,"
just a few weeks ago, -
2:11 - 2:16pointed the way to
a very jobs-rich recovery -
2:16 - 2:20if we emphasize renewable energy
and sustainability technology. -
2:20 - 2:24So I think we are crossing
a tipping point, -
2:24 - 2:27and you need only look
at the recovery plans -
2:27 - 2:30that are being presented
in nations around the world -
2:30 - 2:35to see that they're very much
focused on a green recovery. -
2:35 - 2:38CA: I mean, one obvious impact
of the pandemic -
2:38 - 2:41is that it's brought the world's economy
to a shuddering halt, -
2:41 - 2:45thereby reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
-
2:46 - 2:48I mean, how big an effect has that been,
-
2:48 - 2:52and is it unambiguously good news?
-
2:53 - 2:56AG: Well, it's a little bit
of an illusion, Chris, -
2:56 - 3:02and you need only look back
to the Great Recession in 2008 and '09, -
3:02 - 3:06when there was a one percent
decline in emissions, -
3:06 - 3:08but then in 2010,
-
3:08 - 3:11they came roaring back during the recovery
-
3:11 - 3:13with a four percent increase.
-
3:13 - 3:18The latest estimates are that emissions
will go down by at least five percent -
3:18 - 3:21during this induced coma,
-
3:21 - 3:27as the economist Paul Krugman
perceptively described it, -
3:27 - 3:31but whether it goes back the way it did
after the Great Recession -
3:31 - 3:34is in part up to us,
-
3:34 - 3:38and if these green recovery plans
are actually implemented, -
3:38 - 3:42and I know many countries
are determined to implement them, -
3:42 - 3:46then we need not repeat that pattern.
-
3:46 - 3:49After all, this whole process is occurring
-
3:49 - 3:56during a period when
the cost of renewable energy -
3:56 - 3:58and electric vehicles, batteries
-
3:58 - 4:01and a range of other
sustainability approaches -
4:01 - 4:05are continuing to fall in price,
-
4:05 - 4:08and they're becoming
much more competitive. -
4:08 - 4:13Just a quick reference
to how fast this is: -
4:13 - 4:16five years ago, electricity
from solar and wind -
4:16 - 4:19was cheaper than electricity
from fossil fuels -
4:19 - 4:21in only one percent of the world.
-
4:21 - 4:24This year, it's cheaper
in two-thirds of the world, -
4:24 - 4:26and five years from now,
-
4:26 - 4:31it will be cheaper in virtually
100 percent of the world. -
4:31 - 4:35EVs will be cost-competitive
within two years, -
4:35 - 4:38and then will continue falling in price.
-
4:38 - 4:41And so there are changes underway
-
4:41 - 4:45that could interrupt the pattern
we saw after the Great Recession. -
4:46 - 4:50CA: The reason those pricing differentials
happen in different parts of the world -
4:50 - 4:54is obviously because there's different
amounts of sunshine and wind there -
4:54 - 4:56and different building costs and so forth.
-
4:57 - 5:01AG: Well, yes, and government policies
also account for a lot. -
5:01 - 5:05The world is continuing
to subsidize fossil fuels -
5:05 - 5:07at a ridiculous amount,
-
5:07 - 5:12more so in many developing countries
than in the US and developed countries, -
5:12 - 5:16but it's subsidized here as well.
-
5:16 - 5:18But everywhere in the world,
-
5:18 - 5:23wind and solar will be cheaper
as a source of electricity -
5:23 - 5:24than fossil fuels,
-
5:24 - 5:26within a few years.
-
5:27 - 5:30CA: I think I've heard it said
that the fall in emissions -
5:30 - 5:32caused by the pandemic
-
5:32 - 5:35isn't that much more than, actually,
the fall that we will need -
5:35 - 5:37every single year
-
5:37 - 5:40if we're to meet emissions targets.
-
5:41 - 5:43Is that true, and, if so,
-
5:43 - 5:45doesn't that seem impossibly daunting?
-
5:46 - 5:48AG: It does seem daunting,
but first look at the number. -
5:48 - 5:52That number came from a study
a little over a year ago -
5:52 - 5:54released by the IPCC
-
5:55 - 6:00as to what it would take to keep
the Earth's temperatures from increasing -
6:00 - 6:03more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.
-
6:03 - 6:08And yes, the annual reductions
would be significant, -
6:08 - 6:11on the order of what we've seen
with the pandemic. -
6:11 - 6:13And yes, that does seem daunting.
-
6:13 - 6:20However, we do have the opportunity
to make some fairly dramatic changes, -
6:20 - 6:22and the plan is not a mystery.
-
6:22 - 6:28You start with the two sectors that are
closest to an effective transition -- -
6:28 - 6:31electricity generation, as I mentioned --
-
6:31 - 6:33and last year, 2019,
-
6:33 - 6:37if you look at all of the new
electricity generation built -
6:37 - 6:39all around the world,
-
6:39 - 6:4372 percent of it was from solar and wind.
-
6:43 - 6:48And already, without the continuing
subsidies for fossil fuels, -
6:48 - 6:51we would see many more of these plants
-
6:51 - 6:52being shut down.
-
6:52 - 6:54There are some new
fossil plants being built, -
6:54 - 6:57but many more are being shut down.
-
6:57 - 6:59And where transportation is concerned,
-
6:59 - 7:02the second sector ready to go,
-
7:02 - 7:08in addition to the cheaper prices
for EVs that I made reference to before, -
7:08 - 7:12there are some 45 jurisdictions
around the world -- -
7:12 - 7:17national, regional and municipal --
-
7:17 - 7:20where laws have been passed
beginning a phaseout -
7:20 - 7:22of internal combustion engines.
-
7:22 - 7:26Even India said that by 2030,
less than 10 years from now, -
7:26 - 7:31it will be illegal to sell
any new internal combustion engines -
7:31 - 7:32in India.
-
7:32 - 7:35There are many other examples.
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7:35 - 7:39So the past small reductions
-
7:39 - 7:43may not be an accurate guide
to the kind we can achieve -
7:43 - 7:46with serious national plans
-
7:46 - 7:49and a focused global effort.
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7:50 - 7:53CA: So help us understand
just the big picture here, Al. -
7:53 - 7:56I think before the pandemic,
-
7:56 - 7:59the world was emitting
-
7:59 - 8:03about 55 gigatons of what
they call "CO2 equivalent," -
8:03 - 8:05so that includes other greenhouse gases
-
8:05 - 8:09like methane dialed up
to be the equivalent of CO2. -
8:09 - 8:12And am I right in saying that the IPCC,
-
8:12 - 8:15which is the global
organization of scientists, -
8:15 - 8:20is recommending that
the only way to fix this crisis -
8:20 - 8:23is to get that number from 55 to zero
-
8:23 - 8:26by 2050 at the very latest,
-
8:26 - 8:30and that even then, there's a chance
that we will end up with temperature rises -
8:30 - 8:35more like two degrees Celsius
rather than 1.5? -
8:35 - 8:38I mean, is that approximately
the big picture -
8:38 - 8:40of what the IPCC is recommending?
-
8:41 - 8:42AG: That's correct.
-
8:42 - 8:47The global goal established
in the Paris Conference -
8:47 - 8:50is to get to net zero on a global basis
-
8:50 - 8:51by 2050,
-
8:51 - 8:53and many people quickly add
-
8:53 - 8:58that that really means a 45
to 50 percent reduction by 2030 -
8:58 - 9:03to make that pathway
to net zero feasible. -
9:04 - 9:06CA: And that kind of timeline
is the kind of timeline -
9:06 - 9:08where people couldn't even imagine it.
-
9:08 - 9:11It's just hard to think
of policy over 30 years. -
9:11 - 9:13So that's actually a very good shorthand,
-
9:13 - 9:17that humanity's task is to cut
emissions in half by 2030, -
9:17 - 9:19approximately speaking,
-
9:19 - 9:25which I think boils down to about
a seven or eight percent reduction a year, -
9:25 - 9:27something like that, if I'm not wrong.
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9:27 - 9:29AG: Not quite. Not quite that large
-
9:29 - 9:31but close, yes.
-
9:32 - 9:37CA: So it is something like the effect
that we've experienced this year -
9:37 - 9:39may be necessary.
-
9:39 - 9:42This year, we've done it
by basically shutting down the economy. -
9:42 - 9:45You're talking about a way of doing it
over the coming years -
9:45 - 9:49that actually gives some
economic growth and new jobs. -
9:49 - 9:51So talk more about that.
-
9:51 - 9:54You've referred to
changing our energy sources, -
9:54 - 9:56changing how we transport.
-
9:56 - 9:58If we did those things,
-
9:58 - 10:00how much of the problem does that solve?
-
10:01 - 10:03AG: Well, we can get to --
-
10:03 - 10:06well, in addition to doing
the two sectors that I mentioned, -
10:06 - 10:11we also have to deal with manufacturing
and all the use cases -
10:11 - 10:15that require temperatures
of a thousand degrees Celsius, -
10:15 - 10:17and there are solutions there as well.
-
10:17 - 10:23I'll come back and mention an exciting one
that Germany has just embarked upon. -
10:23 - 10:26We also have to tackle
regenerative agriculture. -
10:27 - 10:32There is the opportunity
to sequester a great deal of carbon -
10:32 - 10:34in topsoils around the world
-
10:35 - 10:38by changing the agricultural techniques.
-
10:38 - 10:41There is a farmer-led movement to do that.
-
10:41 - 10:45We need to also retrofit buildings.
-
10:45 - 10:50We need to change our management
of forests and the ocean. -
10:50 - 10:54But let me just mention
two things briefly. -
10:54 - 10:57First of all, the high
temperature use cases. -
10:57 - 11:01Angela Merkel, just 10 days ago,
-
11:01 - 11:04with the leadership of
her minister Peter Altmaier, -
11:04 - 11:07who is a good friend
and a great public servant, -
11:07 - 11:12have just embarked on
a green hydrogen strategy -
11:12 - 11:14to make hydrogen
-
11:14 - 11:18with zero marginal cost renewable energy.
-
11:18 - 11:20And just a word on that, Chris:
-
11:20 - 11:25you've heard about the intermittency
of wind and solar -- -
11:25 - 11:28solar doesn't produce electricity
when the sun's not shining, -
11:28 - 11:31and wind doesn't
when the wind's not blowing -- -
11:31 - 11:34but batteries are getting better,
-
11:34 - 11:38and these technologies are becoming
much more efficient and powerful, -
11:38 - 11:42so that for an increasing number
of hours of each day, -
11:42 - 11:47they're producing often way more
electricity than can be used. -
11:47 - 11:48So what to do with it?
-
11:48 - 11:53The marginal cost
for the next kilowatt-hour is zero. -
11:53 - 11:54So all of a sudden,
-
11:54 - 11:59the very energy-intensive process
of cracking hydrogen from water -
11:59 - 12:01becomes economically feasible,
-
12:02 - 12:07and it can be substituted
for coal and gas, -
12:07 - 12:09and that's already being done.
-
12:09 - 12:13There's a Swedish company
already making steel with green hydrogen, -
12:13 - 12:18and, as I say, Germany has just embarked
on a major new initiative to do that. -
12:18 - 12:22I think they're pointing the way
for the rest of the world. -
12:22 - 12:25Now, where building retrofits
are concerned, just a moment on this, -
12:25 - 12:30because about 20 to 25 percent
of the global warming pollution -
12:30 - 12:32in the world and in the US
-
12:32 - 12:35comes from inefficient buildings
-
12:35 - 12:40that were constructed
by companies and individuals -
12:40 - 12:42who were trying to be competitive
in the marketplace -
12:42 - 12:45and keep their margins acceptably high
-
12:45 - 12:49and thereby skimping on insulation
and the right windows -
12:49 - 12:51and LEDs and the rest.
-
12:51 - 12:55And yet the person or company
that buys that building -
12:55 - 12:56or leases that building,
-
12:56 - 12:59they want their monthly
utility bills much lower. -
12:59 - 13:01So there are now ways
-
13:01 - 13:04to close that so-called
agent-principal divide, -
13:04 - 13:08the differing incentives
for the builder and occupier, -
13:08 - 13:13and we can retrofit buildings with
a program that literally pays for itself -
13:13 - 13:15over three to five years,
-
13:15 - 13:18and we could put tens of millions
of people to work -
13:18 - 13:21in jobs that by definition
cannot be outsourced -
13:21 - 13:25because they exist
in every single community. -
13:25 - 13:28And we really ought to get serious
about doing this, -
13:28 - 13:31because we're going to need all those jobs
-
13:31 - 13:35to get sustainable prosperity
in the aftermath of this pandemic. -
13:37 - 13:39CA: Just going back
to the hydrogen economy -
13:39 - 13:41that you referred to there,
-
13:41 - 13:42when some people hear that,
-
13:42 - 13:45they think, "Oh, are you talking
about hydrogen-fueled cars?" -
13:46 - 13:49And they've heard that that
probably won't be a winning strategy. -
13:49 - 13:51But you're thinking much more
broadly than that, I think, -
13:51 - 13:56that it's not just hydrogen
as a kind of storage mechanism -
13:56 - 13:59to act as a buffer for renewable energy,
-
13:59 - 14:01but also hydrogen could be essential
-
14:01 - 14:06for some of the other processes
in the economy like making steel, -
14:06 - 14:07making cement,
-
14:07 - 14:11that are fundamentally
carbon-intensive processes right now -
14:11 - 14:15but could be transformed if we had
much cheaper sources of hydrogen. -
14:15 - 14:16Is that right?
-
14:16 - 14:21AG: Yes, I was always skeptical
about hydrogen, Chris, -
14:21 - 14:25principally because it's been
so expensive to make it, -
14:25 - 14:28to "crack it out of water," as they say.
-
14:28 - 14:30But the game-changer has been
-
14:30 - 14:36the incredible abundance
of solar and wind electricity -
14:36 - 14:40in volumes and amounts
that people didn't expect, -
14:40 - 14:43and all of a sudden,
it's cheap enough to use -
14:43 - 14:46for these very energy-intensive processes
-
14:46 - 14:48like creating green hydrogen.
-
14:48 - 14:52I'm still a bit skeptical
about using it in vehicles. -
14:52 - 14:58Toyota's been betting on that for 25 years
and it hasn't really worked for them. -
14:58 - 15:00Never say never, maybe it will,
-
15:00 - 15:05but I think it's most useful for these
high-temperature industrial processes, -
15:05 - 15:11and we already have a pathway
for decarbonizing transportation -
15:11 - 15:12with electricity
-
15:12 - 15:14that's working extremely well.
-
15:14 - 15:20Tesla's going to be soon the most valuable
automobile company in the world, -
15:20 - 15:21already in the US,
-
15:21 - 15:24and they're about to overtake Toyota.
-
15:24 - 15:31There is now a semitruck company
that's been stood up by Tesla -
15:31 - 15:36and another that is going to be a hybrid
with electricity and green hydrogen, -
15:36 - 15:40so we'll see whether or not
they can make it work in that application. -
15:40 - 15:44But I think electricity is preferable
for cars and trucks. -
15:45 - 15:47CA: We're coming to some
community questions in a minute. -
15:47 - 15:50Let me ask you, though, about nuclear.
-
15:50 - 15:53Some environmentalists
believe that nuclear, -
15:53 - 15:56or maybe new generation nuclear power
-
15:56 - 15:59is an essential part of the equation
-
15:59 - 16:02if we're to get to a truly clean future,
-
16:02 - 16:04a clean energy future.
-
16:04 - 16:08Are you still pretty skeptical
on nuclear, Al? -
16:08 - 16:12AG: Well, the market's skeptical
about it, Chris. -
16:12 - 16:17It's been a crushing disappointment
for me and for so many. -
16:17 - 16:20I used to represent Oak Ridge,
where nuclear energy began, -
16:20 - 16:22and when I was a young congressman,
-
16:22 - 16:24I was a booster.
-
16:24 - 16:26I was very enthusiastic about it.
-
16:26 - 16:28But the cost overruns
-
16:28 - 16:32and the problems in building these plants
-
16:32 - 16:35have become so severe
-
16:35 - 16:39that utilities just don't have
an appetite for them. -
16:39 - 16:43It's become the most expensive
source of electricity. -
16:43 - 16:49Now, let me hasten to add
that there are some older nuclear reactors -
16:49 - 16:55that have more useful time
that could be added onto their lifetimes. -
16:55 - 16:57And like a lot of environmentalists,
-
16:57 - 17:03I've come to the view
that if they can be determined to be safe, -
17:03 - 17:09they should be allowed to continue
operating for a time. -
17:09 - 17:12But where new nuclear
power plants are concerned, -
17:12 - 17:14here's a way to look at it.
-
17:14 - 17:16If you are -- you've been a CEO, Chris.
-
17:16 - 17:20If you were the CEO of --
I guess you still are. -
17:20 - 17:24If you were the CEO
of an electric utility, -
17:24 - 17:25and you told your executive team,
-
17:25 - 17:28"I want to build a nuclear power plant,"
-
17:28 - 17:32two of the first questions
you would ask are, number one: -
17:32 - 17:34How much will it cost?
-
17:34 - 17:37And there's not a single
engineering consulting firm -
17:37 - 17:40that I've been able to find
anywhere in the world -
17:40 - 17:43that will put their name on an opinion
-
17:43 - 17:45giving you a cost estimate.
-
17:45 - 17:47They just don't know.
-
17:47 - 17:49A second question you would ask is:
-
17:49 - 17:53How long will it take to build it,
so we can start selling the electricity? -
17:53 - 17:55And again, the answer you will get is,
-
17:55 - 17:57"We have no idea."
-
17:57 - 17:59So if you don't know
how much it's going to cost, -
18:00 - 18:02and you don't know
when it's going to be finished, -
18:02 - 18:06and you already know that
the electricity is more expensive -
18:06 - 18:09than the alternate ways to produce it,
-
18:09 - 18:11that's going to be a little discouraging,
-
18:11 - 18:14and, in fact, that's been the case
for utilities around the world. -
18:16 - 18:17CA: OK.
-
18:17 - 18:20So there's definitely
an interesting debate there, -
18:20 - 18:22but we're going to come on
to some community questions. -
18:22 - 18:25Let's have the first
of those questions up, please. -
18:26 - 18:29From Prosanta Chakrabarty:
-
18:29 - 18:31"People who are skeptical
of COVID and of climate change -
18:31 - 18:34seem to be skeptical
of science in general. -
18:34 - 18:36It may be that the singular
message from scientists -
18:36 - 18:37gets diluted and convoluted.
-
18:37 - 18:39How do we fix that?"
-
18:40 - 18:44AG: Yeah, that's
a great question, Prosanta. -
18:45 - 18:50Boy, I'm trying to put this
succinctly and shortly. -
18:50 - 18:52I think that there has been
-
18:52 - 18:57a feeling that experts in general
-
18:57 - 19:01have kind of let the US down,
-
19:01 - 19:08and that feeling is much more pronounced
in the US than in most other countries. -
19:08 - 19:15And I think that the considered opinion
of what we call experts -
19:15 - 19:19has been diluted over the last few decades
-
19:19 - 19:25by the unhealthy dominance
of big money in our political system, -
19:25 - 19:31which has found ways
to really twist economic policy -
19:31 - 19:34to benefit elites.
-
19:34 - 19:35And this sounds a little radical,
-
19:35 - 19:38but it's actually what has happened.
-
19:38 - 19:42And we have gone for more than 40 years
-
19:42 - 19:46without any meaningful increase
in middle-income pay, -
19:46 - 19:51and where the injustice experienced
by African Americans -
19:51 - 19:54and other communities
of color are concerned, -
19:54 - 19:59the differential in pay between
African Americans and majority Americans -
19:59 - 20:02is the same as it was in 1968,
-
20:02 - 20:05and the family wealth,
-
20:05 - 20:06the net worth --
-
20:06 - 20:11it takes 11 and a half so-called
"typical" African American families -
20:11 - 20:17to make up the net worth of one
so-called "typical" White American family. -
20:17 - 20:21And you look at the soaring incomes
-
20:21 - 20:24in the top one
or the top one-tenth of one percent, -
20:24 - 20:26and people say, "Wait a minute.
-
20:26 - 20:30Whoever the experts were
that designed these policies, -
20:30 - 20:34they haven't been doing
a good job for me." -
20:34 - 20:36A final point, Chris:
-
20:36 - 20:39there has been an assault on reason.
-
20:39 - 20:42There has been a war against truth.
-
20:42 - 20:46There has been a strategy,
-
20:46 - 20:51maybe it was best known as a strategy
decades ago by the tobacco companies -
20:51 - 20:56who hired actors and dressed them up
as doctors to falsely reassure people -
20:56 - 21:00that there were no health consequences
from smoking cigarettes, -
21:00 - 21:03and a hundred million people
died as a result. -
21:03 - 21:09That same strategy of diminishing
the significance of truth, -
21:09 - 21:13diminishing, as someone said,
the authority of knowledge, -
21:13 - 21:18I think that has made it
kind of open season -
21:18 - 21:22on any inconvenient truth --
forgive another buzz phrase, -
21:22 - 21:24but it is apt.
-
21:24 - 21:31We cannot abandon our devotion
to the best available evidence -
21:31 - 21:34tested in reasoned discourse
-
21:34 - 21:36and used as the basis
-
21:36 - 21:40for the best policies we can form.
-
21:40 - 21:43CA: Is it possible, Al,
that one consequence of the pandemic -
21:43 - 21:46is actually a growing number of people
-
21:46 - 21:49have revisited their opinions
on scientists? -
21:49 - 21:52I mean, you've had a chance
in the last few months to say, -
21:52 - 21:56"Do I trust my political leader
or do I trust this scientist -
21:56 - 21:57in terms of what they're saying
-
21:57 - 22:00about this virus?"
-
22:00 - 22:03Maybe lessons from that
could be carried forward? -
22:04 - 22:07AG: Well, you know, I think
if the polling is accurate, -
22:07 - 22:13people do trust their doctors
a lot more than some of the politicians -
22:13 - 22:19who seem to have a vested interest
in pretending the pandemic isn't real. -
22:19 - 22:22And if you look at the incredible bust
-
22:22 - 22:26at President Trump's rally in Tulsa,
-
22:26 - 22:33a stadium of 19,000 people
with less than one-third filled, -
22:33 - 22:34according to the fire marshal,
-
22:35 - 22:38you saw all the empty seats
if you saw the news clips, -
22:38 - 22:43so even the most loyal Trump supporters
-
22:43 - 22:48must have decided to trust their doctors
and the medical advice -
22:48 - 22:52rather than Dr. Donald Trump.
-
22:53 - 22:56CA: With a little help from
the TikTok generation, perchance. -
22:56 - 22:59AG: Well, but that didn't
affect the turnout. -
22:59 - 23:03What they did, very cleverly,
and I'm cheering them on, -
23:03 - 23:09what they did was affect
the Trump White House's expectations. -
23:09 - 23:14They're the reason why he went out
a couple days beforehand -
23:14 - 23:16and said, "We've had
a million people sign up." -
23:16 - 23:18But they didn't prevent --
-
23:18 - 23:22they didn't take seats that others
could have otherwise taken. -
23:22 - 23:25They didn't affect the turnout,
just the expectations. -
23:25 - 23:28CA: OK, let's have our next question here.
-
23:31 - 23:34"Are you concerned the world will rush
back to the use of the private car -
23:34 - 23:37out of fear of using
shared public transportation?" -
23:39 - 23:46AG: Well, that could actually be
one of the consequences, absolutely. -
23:46 - 23:49Now, the trends on mass transit
-
23:49 - 23:53were already inching
in the wrong direction -
23:53 - 23:58because of Uber and Lyft
and the ridesharing services, -
23:58 - 24:04and if autonomy ever reaches the goals
that its advocates have hoped for -
24:04 - 24:08then that may also have a similar effect.
-
24:08 - 24:12But there's no doubt that some people
-
24:12 - 24:18are going to be probably
a little more reluctant -
24:18 - 24:20to take mass transportation
-
24:20 - 24:27until the fear of this pandemic
is well and truly gone. -
24:27 - 24:30CA: Yeah. Might need
a vaccine on that one. -
24:30 - 24:32AG: (Laughs) Yeah.
-
24:32 - 24:33CA: Next question.
-
24:36 - 24:39Sonaar Luthra, thank you
for this question from LA. -
24:39 - 24:42"Given the temperature rise
in the Arctic this past week, -
24:42 - 24:44seems like the rate
we are losing our carbon sinks -
24:44 - 24:45like permafrost or forests
-
24:45 - 24:47is accelerating faster than we predicted.
-
24:47 - 24:51Are our models too focused
on human emissions?" -
24:51 - 24:52Interesting question.
-
24:52 - 24:57AG: Well, the models are focused
on the factors that have led -
24:57 - 25:01to these incredible temperature spikes
-
25:01 - 25:03in the north of the Arctic Circle.
-
25:03 - 25:06They were predicted,
they have been predicted, -
25:06 - 25:09and one of the reasons for it
-
25:09 - 25:12is that as the snow and ice cover melts,
-
25:13 - 25:17the sun's incoming rays are no longer
reflected back into space -
25:17 - 25:20at a 90 percent rate,
-
25:20 - 25:24and instead, when they fall on
the dark tundra or the dark ocean, -
25:24 - 25:26they're absorbed at a 90 percent rate.
-
25:26 - 25:32So that's a magnifier
of the warming in the Arctic, -
25:32 - 25:34and this has been predicted.
-
25:34 - 25:38There are a number of other consequences
that are also in the models, -
25:38 - 25:42but some of them
may have to be recalibrated. -
25:42 - 25:45The scientists are freshly concerned
-
25:45 - 25:51that the emissions of both CO2 and methane
-
25:51 - 25:53from the thawing tundra
-
25:53 - 25:58could be larger than they
had hoped they would be. -
25:58 - 26:02There's also just been a brand-new study.
-
26:02 - 26:04I won't spend time on this,
-
26:04 - 26:08because it deals with a kind of geeky term
called "climate sensitivity," -
26:08 - 26:13which has been a factor in the models
with large error bars -
26:13 - 26:15because it's so hard to pin down.
-
26:15 - 26:19But the latest evidence
indicates, worryingly, -
26:19 - 26:22that the sensitivity may be
greater than they had thought, -
26:22 - 26:26and we will have
an even more daunting task. -
26:26 - 26:28That shouldn't discourage us.
-
26:28 - 26:32I truly believe that once
we cross this tipping point, -
26:32 - 26:34and I do believe we're doing it now,
-
26:34 - 26:35as I've said,
-
26:35 - 26:38then I think we're going
to find a lot of ways -
26:38 - 26:41to speed up the emissions reductions.
-
26:42 - 26:45CA: We'll take one more question
from the community. -
26:47 - 26:50Haha. "Geoengineering
is making extraordinary progress. -
26:50 - 26:55Exxon is investing in technology
from Global Thermostat -
26:55 - 26:57that seems promising.
-
26:57 - 27:01What do you think of these air and water
carbon capture technologies?" -
27:01 - 27:03Stephen Petranek.
-
27:03 - 27:07AG: Yeah. Well, you and I have
talked about this before, Chris. -
27:07 - 27:11I've been strongly opposed
-
27:11 - 27:18to conducting an unplanned
global experiment -
27:18 - 27:22that could go wildly wrong,
-
27:22 - 27:26and most are really
scared of that approach. -
27:26 - 27:32However, the term "geoengineering"
is a nuanced term that covers a lot. -
27:32 - 27:38If you want to paint roofs white
to reflect more energy -
27:38 - 27:42from the cityscapes,
-
27:42 - 27:46that's not going to bring a danger
of a runaway effect, -
27:46 - 27:48and there are some other things
-
27:48 - 27:52that are loosely called "geoengineering"
like that, which are fine. -
27:52 - 27:57But the idea of blocking out
the sun's rays -- -
27:57 - 27:59that's insane in my opinion.
-
27:59 - 28:03Turns out plants need sunlight
for photosynthesis -
28:03 - 28:05and solar panels need sunlight
-
28:05 - 28:11for producing electricity
from the sun's rays. -
28:11 - 28:16And the consequences of changing
everything we know -
28:16 - 28:23and pretending that the consequences
are going to precisely cancel out -
28:23 - 28:28the unplanned experiment of global warming
that we already have underway, -
28:28 - 28:31you know, there are
glitches in our thinking. -
28:31 - 28:33One of them is called
the "single solution bias," -
28:33 - 28:37and there are people
who just have a hunger to say, -
28:37 - 28:40"Well, that one solution, we just need
to latch on to that and do that, -
28:40 - 28:42and damn the consequences."
-
28:42 - 28:44Well, it's nuts.
-
28:44 - 28:46CA: But let me push back on this
just a little bit. -
28:46 - 28:49So let's say that we agree
that a single solution, -
28:49 - 28:54all-or-nothing attempt
at geoengineering is crazy. -
28:54 - 28:59But there are scenarios where the world
looks at emissions and just sees, -
28:59 - 29:01in 10 years' time, let's say,
-
29:01 - 29:04that they are just not
coming down fast enough -
29:04 - 29:08and that we are at risk
of several other liftoff events -
29:08 - 29:11where this train will just
get away from us, -
29:11 - 29:16and we will see temperature rises
of three, four, five, six, seven degrees, -
29:16 - 29:19and all of civilization is at risk.
-
29:20 - 29:23Surely, there is an approach
to geoengineering -
29:24 - 29:27that could be modeled, in a way,
on the way that we approach medicine. -
29:27 - 29:31Like, for hundreds of years,
we don't really understand the human body, -
29:31 - 29:33people would try interventions,
-
29:33 - 29:38and some of them would work,
and some of them wouldn't. -
29:38 - 29:41No one says in medicine, "You know,
-
29:41 - 29:45go in and take an all-or-nothing decision
-
29:45 - 29:47on someone's life,"
-
29:47 - 29:49but they do say, "Let's try some stuff."
-
29:49 - 29:51If an experiment can be reversible,
-
29:51 - 29:53if it's plausible in the first place,
-
29:53 - 29:56if there's reason to think
that it might work, -
29:56 - 30:01we actually owe it to
the future health of humanity -
30:01 - 30:05to try at least some types of tests
to see what could work. -
30:05 - 30:09So, small tests to see
whether, for example, -
30:09 - 30:11seeding of something in the ocean
-
30:11 - 30:15might create, in a nonthreatening way,
-
30:15 - 30:17carbon sinks.
-
30:17 - 30:21Or maybe, rather than filling
the atmosphere with sulfur dioxide, -
30:22 - 30:26a smaller experiment
that was not that big a deal -
30:26 - 30:30to see whether, cost-effectively, you
could reduce the temperature a little bit. -
30:30 - 30:32Surely, that isn't completely crazy
-
30:32 - 30:35and is at least something
we should be thinking about -
30:35 - 30:37in case these other measures don't work?
-
30:38 - 30:42AG: Well, there've already been
such experiments -
30:42 - 30:43to seed the ocean
-
30:43 - 30:48to see if that can increase
the uptake of CO2. -
30:48 - 30:52And the experiments
were an unmitigated failure, -
30:52 - 30:55as many predicted they would be.
-
30:55 - 30:59But that, again, is the kind of approach
-
30:59 - 31:00that's very different
-
31:00 - 31:04from putting tinfoil strips
in the atmosphere orbiting the Earth. -
31:05 - 31:10That was the way that solar
geoengineering proposal started. -
31:10 - 31:14Now they're focusing on chalk,
-
31:14 - 31:18so we have chalk dust all over everything.
-
31:18 - 31:24But more serious than that is the fact
that it might not be reversible. -
31:24 - 31:27CA: But, Al, that's the rhetoric response.
-
31:27 - 31:30The amount of dust that you need
-
31:30 - 31:33to drop by a degree or two
-
31:33 - 31:36wouldn't result in chalk dust
over everything. -
31:36 - 31:38It would be unbelievably --
-
31:38 - 31:43like, it would be less than the dust
that people experience every day, anyway. -
31:43 - 31:45I mean, I just --
-
31:46 - 31:51AG: First of all, I don't know
how you do a small experiment -
31:51 - 31:52in the atmosphere.
-
31:52 - 31:54And secondly,
-
31:54 - 31:58if we were to take that approach,
-
31:58 - 32:02we would have to steadily
increase the amount -
32:02 - 32:04of whatever substance they decided.
-
32:04 - 32:07We'd have to increase
it every single year, -
32:07 - 32:09and if we ever stopped,
-
32:09 - 32:15then there would be a sudden snapback,
-
32:15 - 32:20like "The Picture of Dorian Gray,"
that old book and movie, -
32:20 - 32:25where suddenly all of the things
caught up with you at once. -
32:25 - 32:29The fact that anyone is even
considering these approaches, Chris, -
32:29 - 32:34is a measure of a feeling of desperation
-
32:34 - 32:38that some have begun to feel,
-
32:38 - 32:40which I understand,
-
32:40 - 32:47but I don't think it should drive us
toward these reckless experiments. -
32:47 - 32:51And by the way, using your analogy
to experimental cancer treatments, -
32:52 - 32:53for example,
-
32:53 - 32:56you usually get informed consent
from the patient. -
32:56 - 33:00Getting informed consent
from 7.8 billion people -
33:00 - 33:02who have no voice and no say,
-
33:02 - 33:07who are subject to the potentially
catastrophic consequences -
33:07 - 33:12of this wackadoodle proposal
that somebody comes up with -
33:12 - 33:16to try to rearrange
the entire Earth's atmosphere -
33:16 - 33:19and hope and pretend
that it's going to cancel out, -
33:19 - 33:24the fact that we're putting
152 million tons -
33:24 - 33:27of heat-trapping, manmade
global warming pollution -
33:27 - 33:29into the sky every day.
-
33:29 - 33:32That's what's really insane.
-
33:32 - 33:34A scientist decades ago
-
33:34 - 33:36compared it this way.
-
33:36 - 33:39He said, if you had two people
on a sinking boat -
33:39 - 33:42and one of them says,
-
33:42 - 33:47"You know, we could probably use
some mirrors to signal to shore -
33:47 - 33:48to get them to build
-
33:48 - 33:51a sophisticated wave-generating machine
-
33:51 - 33:55that will cancel out
the rocking of the boat -
33:55 - 33:57by these guys in the back of the boat."
-
33:57 - 33:59Or you could get them
to stop rocking the boat. -
33:59 - 34:04And that's what we need to do.
We need to stop what's causing the crisis. -
34:04 - 34:06CA: Yeah, that's a great story,
-
34:06 - 34:10but if the effort to stop the people
rocking in the back of the boat -
34:10 - 34:14is as complex as the scientific
proposal you just outlined, -
34:14 - 34:17whereas the experiment to stop the waves
-
34:17 - 34:20is actually as simple as telling
the people to stop rocking the boat, -
34:20 - 34:22that story changes.
-
34:22 - 34:26And I think you're right that
the issue of informed consent -
34:26 - 34:28is a really challenging one,
-
34:28 - 34:30but, I mean, no one gave informed consent
-
34:30 - 34:34to do all of the other things
we're doing to the atmosphere. -
34:34 - 34:38And I agree that the moral hazard issue
-
34:38 - 34:39is worrying,
-
34:39 - 34:44that if we became dependent
on geoengineering -
34:44 - 34:47and took away our efforts to do the rest,
-
34:47 - 34:48that would be tragic.
-
34:48 - 34:49It just seems like,
-
34:49 - 34:52I wish it was possible
to have a nuanced debate -
34:52 - 34:53of people saying, you know what,
-
34:54 - 34:56there's multiple dials
to a very complex problem. -
34:56 - 34:59We're going to have to adjust
several of them very, very carefully -
34:59 - 35:02and keep talking to each other.
-
35:02 - 35:04Wouldn't that be a goal
-
35:04 - 35:06to just try and have
a more nuanced debate about this, -
35:06 - 35:09rather than all of that geoengineering
-
35:09 - 35:10can't work?
-
35:11 - 35:14AG: Well, I've said some of it,
-
35:14 - 35:17you know, the benign forms
that I've mentioned, -
35:17 - 35:19I'm not ruling those out.
-
35:19 - 35:23But blocking the Sun's rays
from the Earth, -
35:23 - 35:29not only do you affect 7.8 billion people,
-
35:29 - 35:31you affect the plants
-
35:31 - 35:32and the animals
-
35:32 - 35:34and the ocean currents
-
35:34 - 35:36and the wind currents
-
35:36 - 35:39and natural processes
-
35:39 - 35:45that we're in danger
of disrupting even more. -
35:45 - 35:52Techno-optimism is something
I've engaged in in the past, -
35:52 - 35:59but to latch on to some
brand-new technological solution -
35:59 - 36:03to rework the entire Earth's
natural system -
36:03 - 36:06because somebody thinks he's clever enough
-
36:06 - 36:10to do it in a way
that precisely cancels out -
36:10 - 36:14the consequences of using
the atmosphere as an open sewer -
36:14 - 36:17for heat-trapping manmade gases.
-
36:17 - 36:21It's much more important to stop using
the atmosphere as an open sewer. -
36:21 - 36:23That's what the problem is.
-
36:23 - 36:26CA: All right, well, we'll agree that that
is the most important thing, for sure, -
36:26 - 36:28and speaking of which,
-
36:28 - 36:31do you believe the world
needs carbon pricing, -
36:31 - 36:34and is there any prospect
for getting there? -
36:35 - 36:40AG: Yes. Yes to both questions.
-
36:40 - 36:43For decades, almost every economist
-
36:43 - 36:46who is asked about the climate crisis
-
36:46 - 36:48says, "Well, we just need
to put a price on carbon." -
36:48 - 36:53And I have certainly been
in favor of that approach. -
36:53 - 36:54But it is daunting.
-
36:54 - 36:59Nevertheless, there are
43 jurisdictions around the world -
36:59 - 37:03that already have a price on carbon.
-
37:03 - 37:04We're seeing it in Europe.
-
37:04 - 37:08They finally straightened out
their carbon pricing mechanism. -
37:08 - 37:11It's an emissions trading version of it.
-
37:11 - 37:14We have places that have put
a tax on carbon. -
37:14 - 37:18That's the approach the economists prefer.
-
37:18 - 37:22China is beginning to implement
its national emissions trading program. -
37:22 - 37:27California and quite a few other states
in the US are already doing it. -
37:27 - 37:33It can be given back to people
in a revenue-neutral way. -
37:33 - 37:37But the opposition to it, Chris,
which you've noted, -
37:37 - 37:42is impressive enough
that we do have to take other approaches, -
37:42 - 37:46and I would say most climate activists
are now saying, look, -
37:46 - 37:49let's don't make the best
the enemy of the better. -
37:49 - 37:51There are other ways to do this as well.
-
37:51 - 37:56We need every solution
we can rationally employ, -
37:56 - 38:00including by regulation.
-
38:00 - 38:07And often, when the political difficulty
of a proposal becomes too difficult -
38:07 - 38:10in a market-oriented approach,
-
38:10 - 38:13the fallback is with regulation,
-
38:13 - 38:17and it's been given
a bad name, regulation, -
38:17 - 38:19but many places are doing it.
-
38:19 - 38:22I mentioned phasing out
internal combustion engines. -
38:22 - 38:24That's an example.
-
38:24 - 38:28There are 160 cities in the US
-
38:28 - 38:33that have already by regulation ordered
that within a date certain, -
38:33 - 38:39100 percent of all their electricity
will have to come from renewable sources. -
38:39 - 38:44And again, the market forces that
are driving the cost of renewable energy -
38:44 - 38:48and sustainability solutions
ever downward, -
38:48 - 38:50that gives us the wind at our back.
-
38:51 - 38:53This is working in our favor.
-
38:54 - 38:56CA: I mean, the pushback on carbon pricing
-
38:56 - 38:59often goes further from parts
of the environmental movement, -
38:59 - 39:03which is to a pushback
on the role of business in general. -
39:03 - 39:05Business is actually -- well,
capitalism -- is blamed -
39:05 - 39:07for the climate crisis
-
39:07 - 39:11because of unrelenting growth,
-
39:13 - 39:17to the point where many people
don't trust business -
39:17 - 39:20to be part of the solution.
-
39:20 - 39:23The only way to go forward
is to regulate, -
39:23 - 39:25to force businesses to do the right thing.
-
39:25 - 39:29Do you think that business
has to be part of the solution? -
39:30 - 39:32AG: Well, definitely,
-
39:32 - 39:37because the allocation of capital
needed to solve this crisis -
39:37 - 39:42is greater than what
governments can handle. -
39:42 - 39:45And businesses are beginning,
-
39:45 - 39:50many businesses are beginning
to play a very constructive role. -
39:50 - 39:54They're getting a demand that they do so
-
39:54 - 39:56from their customers,
from their investors, -
39:56 - 39:58from their boards,
-
39:58 - 40:01from their executive teams,
from their families. -
40:01 - 40:02And by the way,
-
40:02 - 40:06the rising generation is demanding
a brighter future, -
40:06 - 40:10and when CEOs interview
potential new hires, -
40:10 - 40:14they find that the new hires
are interviewing them. -
40:14 - 40:16They want to make a nice income,
-
40:16 - 40:20but they want to be able to tell
their family and friends and peers -
40:20 - 40:24that they're doing something
more than just making money. -
40:24 - 40:29One illustration of how
this new generation is changing, Chris: -
40:29 - 40:33there are 65 colleges in the US right now
-
40:33 - 40:38where the College Young Republican Clubs
have joined together -
40:38 - 40:41to jointly demand that
the Republican National Committee -
40:41 - 40:43change its policy on climate,
-
40:43 - 40:46lest they lose that entire generation.
-
40:46 - 40:49This is a global phenomenon.
-
40:49 - 40:52The Greta Generation is now leading this
-
40:53 - 40:55in so many ways,
-
40:55 - 40:58and if you look at the polling,
-
40:58 - 41:02again, the vast majority
of young Republicans -
41:02 - 41:05are demanding a change on climate policy.
-
41:05 - 41:09This is really a movement
-
41:09 - 41:11that is building still.
-
41:12 - 41:14CA: I was going to ask you about that,
-
41:14 - 41:17because one of the most painful things
over the last 20 years -
41:17 - 41:20has just been how climate
has been politicized, -
41:20 - 41:23certainly in the US.
-
41:23 - 41:26You've probably felt yourself
at the heart of that a lot of the time, -
41:26 - 41:28with people attacking you personally
-
41:28 - 41:32in the most merciless,
and unfair ways, often. -
41:32 - 41:37Do you really see signs
that that might be changing, -
41:37 - 41:38led by the next generation?
-
41:39 - 41:42AG: Yeah, there's no question about it.
-
41:42 - 41:44I don't want to rely on polls too much.
-
41:44 - 41:46I've mentioned them already.
-
41:46 - 41:47But there was a new one that came out
-
41:47 - 41:52that looked at the wavering
Trump supporters, -
41:52 - 41:54those who supported him
strongly in the past -
41:54 - 41:56and want to do so again.
-
41:56 - 41:59The number one issue,
surprisingly to some, -
41:59 - 42:01that is giving them pause,
-
42:01 - 42:06is the craziness of President Trump
and his administration on climate. -
42:06 - 42:12We're seeing big majorities
of the Republican Party overall -
42:12 - 42:16saying that they're ready
to start exploring some real solutions -
42:16 - 42:17to the climate crisis.
-
42:17 - 42:20I think that we're really getting there,
no question about it. -
42:21 - 42:24CA: I mean, you've been
the figurehead for raising this issue, -
42:24 - 42:27and you happen to be a Democrat.
-
42:28 - 42:32Is there anything
that you can personally do -
42:32 - 42:34to -- I don't know -- to open the tent,
to welcome people, -
42:34 - 42:38to try and say, "This is
beyond politics, dear friends"? -
42:39 - 42:42AG: Yeah. Well, I've tried
all of those things, -
42:42 - 42:48and maybe it's made a little
positive difference. -
42:48 - 42:51I've worked with
the Republicans extensively. -
42:51 - 42:55And, you know, well after
I left the White House, -
42:55 - 42:59I had Newt Gingrich and Pat Robertson
-
42:59 - 43:01and other prominent Republicans
-
43:01 - 43:04appear on national TV ads with me
-
43:04 - 43:07saying we've got to solve
the climate crisis. -
43:07 - 43:11But the petroleum industry
-
43:11 - 43:15has really doubled down
-
43:15 - 43:18enforcing discipline
within the Republican Party. -
43:18 - 43:22I mean, look at the attacks
they've launched against the Pope -
43:22 - 43:25when he came out with his encyclical
-
43:25 - 43:27and was demonized,
-
43:27 - 43:29not by all for sure,
-
43:29 - 43:33but there were hawks
in the anti-climate movement -
43:33 - 43:39who immediately started
training their guns on Pope Francis, -
43:39 - 43:42and there are many other examples.
-
43:42 - 43:44They enforce discipline
-
43:44 - 43:47and try to make it a partisan issue,
-
43:47 - 43:49even as Democrats reach out
-
43:49 - 43:51to try to make it bipartisan.
-
43:51 - 43:55I totally agree with you
that it should not be a partisan issue. -
43:55 - 43:58It didn't use to be,
-
43:58 - 44:02but it's been artificially
weaponized as an issue. -
44:02 - 44:04CA: I mean, the CEOs
of oil companies also have kids -
44:04 - 44:07who are talking to them.
-
44:07 - 44:09It feels like some of them are moving
-
44:09 - 44:11and are trying to invest
-
44:11 - 44:14and trying to find ways
of being part of the future. -
44:14 - 44:16Do you see signs of that?
-
44:17 - 44:18AG: Yeah.
-
44:18 - 44:23I think that business leaders,
including in the oil and gas companies, -
44:23 - 44:27are hearing from their families.
-
44:27 - 44:29They're hearing from their friends.
-
44:29 - 44:32They're hearing from their employees.
-
44:32 - 44:35And, by the way, we've seen
in the tech industry -
44:35 - 44:39some mass walkouts by employees
-
44:39 - 44:43who are demanding
that some of the tech companies -
44:43 - 44:45do more and get serious.
-
44:45 - 44:46I'm so proud of Apple.
-
44:46 - 44:49Forgive me for parenthetically
praising Apple. -
44:49 - 44:52You know, I'm on the board,
but I'm such a big fan of Tim Cook -
44:52 - 44:55and my colleagues at Apple.
-
44:55 - 44:57It's an example of a tech company
-
44:57 - 45:00that's really doing fantastic things.
-
45:00 - 45:01And there's some others as well.
-
45:01 - 45:05There are others in many industries.
-
45:05 - 45:09But the pressures on
the oil and gas companies -
45:09 - 45:11are quite extraordinary.
-
45:11 - 45:15You know, BP just wrote down
12 and a half billion dollars' worth -
45:15 - 45:19of oil and gas assets
-
45:19 - 45:23and said that they're never
going to see the light of day. -
45:23 - 45:29Two-thirds of the fossil fuels
that have already been discovered -
45:29 - 45:33cannot be burned and will not be burned.
-
45:33 - 45:38And so that's a big economic risk
to the global economy, -
45:38 - 45:40like the subprime mortgage crisis.
-
45:40 - 45:45We've got 22 trillion dollars
of subprime carbon assets, -
45:45 - 45:47and just yesterday,
there was a major report -
45:47 - 45:50that the fracking industry in the US
-
45:50 - 45:54is seeing now a wave of bankruptcies
-
45:54 - 45:57because the price
of the fracked gas and oil -
45:57 - 46:03has fallen below levels
that make them economic. -
46:03 - 46:05CA: Is the shorthand
of what's happened there -
46:05 - 46:10that electric cars and electric
technologies and solar and so forth -
46:10 - 46:13have helped drive down the price of oil
-
46:13 - 46:15to the point where
huge amounts of the reserves -
46:15 - 46:19just can't be developed profitably?
-
46:20 - 46:21AG: Yes, that's it.
-
46:21 - 46:24That's mainly it.
-
46:24 - 46:31The projections for energy sources
in the next several years -
46:31 - 46:34uniformly predict that electricity
from wind and solar -
46:34 - 46:37is going to continue to plummet in price,
-
46:38 - 46:42and therefore using gas or coal
-
46:42 - 46:48to make steam to turn the turbines
-
46:48 - 46:50is just not going to be economical.
-
46:50 - 46:53Similarly, the electrification
of the transportation sector -
46:53 - 46:56is having the same effect.
-
46:56 - 47:01Some are also looking at the trend
-
47:01 - 47:04in national, regional
and local governance. -
47:04 - 47:06I mentioned this before,
-
47:06 - 47:10but they're predicting
a very different energy future. -
47:10 - 47:12But let me come back, Chris,
-
47:12 - 47:14because we talked about business leaders.
-
47:14 - 47:18I think you were getting in a question
a moment ago about capitalism itself, -
47:18 - 47:20and I do want to say a word on that,
-
47:20 - 47:22because there are a lot of people who say
-
47:22 - 47:26maybe capitalism is the basic problem.
-
47:26 - 47:32I think the current form of capitalism
we have is desperately in need of reform. -
47:32 - 47:36The short-term outlook is often mentioned,
-
47:36 - 47:40but the way we measure
what is of value to us -
47:40 - 47:45is also at the heart of the crisis
of modern capitalism. -
47:45 - 47:49Now, capitalism is at the base
of every successful economy, -
47:49 - 47:51and it balances supply and demand,
-
47:51 - 47:54unlocks a higher fraction
of the human potential, -
47:54 - 47:56and it's not going anywhere,
-
47:56 - 47:59but it needs to be reformed,
-
47:59 - 48:02because the way we measure
what's valuable now -
48:02 - 48:05ignores so-called negative externalities
-
48:05 - 48:06like pollution.
-
48:06 - 48:09It also ignores positive externalities
-
48:09 - 48:12like investments
in education and health care, -
48:12 - 48:14mental health care, family services.
-
48:14 - 48:21It ignores the depletion of resources
like groundwater and topsoil -
48:21 - 48:23and the web of living species.
-
48:23 - 48:28And it ignores the distribution
of incomes and net worths, -
48:28 - 48:32so when GDP goes up, people cheer,
-
48:33 - 48:37two percent, three percent -- wow! --
four percent, and they think, "Great!" -
48:37 - 48:40But it's accompanied
by vast increases in pollution, -
48:41 - 48:45chronic underinvestment in public goods,
-
48:45 - 48:49the depletion of irreplaceable
natural resources, -
48:49 - 48:55and the worst inequality crisis we've seen
in more than a hundred years -
48:55 - 48:58that is threatening the future
of both capitalism and democracy. -
48:58 - 49:01So we have to change it.
We have to reform it. -
49:02 - 49:05CA: So reform capitalism,
but don't throw it out. -
49:05 - 49:07We're going to need it as a tool
as we go forward -
49:07 - 49:09if we're to solve this.
-
49:09 - 49:12AG: Yeah, I think that's right,
and just one other point: -
49:12 - 49:16the worst environmental abuses
in the last hundred years -
49:16 - 49:20have been in jurisdictions
that experimented during the 20th century -
49:20 - 49:24with the alternatives to capitalism
on the left and right. -
49:24 - 49:26CA: Interesting. All right.
-
49:26 - 49:28Two last community questions quickly.
-
49:32 - 49:34Chadburn Blomquist:
-
49:34 - 49:37"As you are reading the tea leaves
of the impact of the current pandemic, -
49:37 - 49:41what do you think in regard to
our response to combatting climate change -
49:41 - 49:43will be the most impactful
lesson learned?" -
49:44 - 49:46AG: Boy, that's a very
thoughtful question, -
49:46 - 49:51and I wish my answer could rise
to the same level on short notice. -
49:51 - 49:53I would say first,
-
49:53 - 49:55don't ignore the scientists.
-
49:56 - 49:58When there is virtual unanimity
-
49:58 - 50:01among the scientific and medical experts,
-
50:01 - 50:03pay attention.
-
50:03 - 50:06Don't let some politician dissuade you.
-
50:06 - 50:09I think President Trump is slowly learning
-
50:09 - 50:12that's it's kind of difficult
to gaslight a virus. -
50:12 - 50:15He tried to gaslight the virus in Tulsa.
-
50:15 - 50:17It didn't come off very well,
-
50:17 - 50:23and tragically, he decided
to recklessly roll the dice a month ago -
50:23 - 50:27and ignore the recommendations
for people to wear masks -
50:27 - 50:28and to socially distance
-
50:28 - 50:30and to do the other things,
-
50:30 - 50:34and I think that lesson
is beginning to take hold -
50:34 - 50:36in a much stronger way.
-
50:36 - 50:37But beyond that, Chris,
-
50:37 - 50:42I think that this period of time
has been characterized -
50:42 - 50:47by one of the most profound opportunities
-
50:47 - 50:51for people to rethink
the patterns of their lives -
50:51 - 50:57and to consider whether or not
we can't do a lot of things better -
50:57 - 50:58and differently.
-
50:58 - 51:03And I think that this rising
generation I mentioned before -
51:03 - 51:05has been even more profoundly affected
-
51:05 - 51:06by this interlude,
-
51:07 - 51:08which I hope ends soon,
-
51:08 - 51:10but I hope the lessons endure.
-
51:10 - 51:12I expect they will.
-
51:12 - 51:16CA: Yeah, it's amazing how many things
you can do without emitting carbon, -
51:16 - 51:18that we've been forced to do.
-
51:18 - 51:20Let's have one more question here.
-
51:23 - 51:26Frank Hennessy: "Are you encouraged
by the ability of people -
51:26 - 51:29to quickly adapt to the new
normal due to COVID-19 -
51:29 - 51:32as evidence that people can and will
change their habits -
51:32 - 51:34to respond to climate change?"
-
51:36 - 51:42AG: Yes, but I think we have
to keep in mind -
51:42 - 51:45that there is a crisis within this crisis.
-
51:45 - 51:52The impact on the African American
community, which I mentioned before, -
51:52 - 51:55on the Latinx community,
-
51:55 - 51:56Indigenous peoples.
-
51:57 - 51:59The highest infection rate
is in the Navajo Nation right now. -
51:59 - 52:05So some of these questions
appear differently -
52:05 - 52:10to those who are really
getting the brunt of this crisis, -
52:10 - 52:17and it is unacceptable
that we allow this to continue. -
52:18 - 52:21It feels one way to you and me
-
52:21 - 52:25and perhaps to many in our audience today,
-
52:25 - 52:28but for low-income communities of color,
-
52:28 - 52:30it's an entirely different crisis,
-
52:30 - 52:32and we owe it to them
-
52:32 - 52:34and to all of us
-
52:34 - 52:38to get busy and to start
using the best science -
52:38 - 52:40and solve this pandemic.
-
52:40 - 52:43You know the phrase "pandemic economics."
-
52:43 - 52:46Somebody said, the first principle
of pandemic economics -
52:46 - 52:47is take care of the pandemic,
-
52:47 - 52:51and we're not doing that yet.
-
52:51 - 52:53We're seeing the president
try to goose the economy -
52:53 - 52:55for his reelection,
-
52:55 - 52:56never mind the prediction
-
52:56 - 53:00of tens of thousands
of additional American deaths, -
53:00 - 53:03and that is just
unforgivable in my opinion. -
53:03 - 53:06CA: Thank you, Frank.
-
53:06 - 53:10So Al, you, along with others
in the community played a key role -
53:10 - 53:17in encouraging TED to launch
this initiative called "Countdown." -
53:17 - 53:19Thank you for that,
-
53:19 - 53:22and I guess this conversation
is continuing among many of us. -
53:22 - 53:26If you're interested
in climate, watching this, -
53:26 - 53:30check out the Countdown website,
-
53:30 - 53:32countdown.ted.com,
-
53:32 - 53:36and be part of 10/10/2020,
-
53:36 - 53:40when we are trying
to put out an alert to the world -
53:40 - 53:42that climate can't wait,
-
53:42 - 53:43that it really matters,
-
53:43 - 53:46and there's going to be
some amazing content -
53:46 - 53:48free to the world on that day.
-
53:48 - 53:53Thank you, Al, for your inspiration
and support in doing that. -
53:53 - 53:55I wonder whether you
could end today's session -
53:55 - 53:58just by painting us a picture,
-
53:58 - 54:03like how might things roll out
over the next decade or so? -
54:03 - 54:07Just tell us whether there is still
a story of hope here. -
54:08 - 54:09AG: I'd be glad to.
-
54:09 - 54:12I've got to get one plug in.
I'll make it brief. -
54:12 - 54:16July 18 through July 26,
-
54:16 - 54:20The Climate Reality Project
is having a global training. -
54:20 - 54:23We've already had 8,000 people register.
-
54:23 - 54:26You can go to climatereality.com.
-
54:26 - 54:27Now, a bright future.
-
54:27 - 54:31It begins with all of the kinds of efforts
-
54:31 - 54:34that you've thrown yourself into
in organizing Countdown. -
54:34 - 54:37Chris, you and your team have been amazing
-
54:37 - 54:40to work with,
-
54:40 - 54:45and I'm so excited
about the Countdown project. -
54:45 - 54:48TED has an unparalleled ability
-
54:48 - 54:51to spread ideas that are worth spreading,
-
54:51 - 54:53to raise consciousness,
-
54:53 - 54:55to enlighten people around the world,
-
54:55 - 54:59and it's needed for climate
and the solutions to the climate crisis -
54:59 - 55:01like it's never been needed before,
-
55:01 - 55:05and I just want to thank you
for what you personally are doing -
55:05 - 55:09to organize this fantastic
Countdown program. -
55:11 - 55:12CA: Thank you.
-
55:12 - 55:14And the world? Are we going to do this?
-
55:14 - 55:17Do you think that humanity
is going to pull this off -
55:17 - 55:20and that our grandchildren
-
55:20 - 55:22are going to have beautiful lives
-
55:22 - 55:25where they can celebrate nature
and not spend every day -
55:25 - 55:28in fear of the next tornado or tsunami?
-
55:29 - 55:33AG: I am optimistic that we will do it,
-
55:33 - 55:37but the answer is in our hands.
-
55:37 - 55:41We have seen dark times
in periods of the past, -
55:41 - 55:45and we have risen to meet the challenge.
-
55:45 - 55:50We have limitations of our long
evolutionary heritage -
55:50 - 55:52and elements of our culture,
-
55:52 - 55:55but we also have the ability
to transcend our limitations, -
55:55 - 55:57and when the chips are down,
-
55:57 - 55:59and when survival is at stake
-
55:59 - 56:02and when our children
and future generations are at stake, -
56:02 - 56:07we're capable of more than we sometimes
allow ourselves to think we can do. -
56:07 - 56:10This is such a time.
-
56:10 - 56:13I believe we will rise to the occasion,
-
56:13 - 56:15and we will create a bright,
-
56:15 - 56:19clean, prosperous, just and fair future.
-
56:19 - 56:21I believe it with all my heart.
-
56:22 - 56:26CA: Al Gore, thank you
for your life of work, -
56:26 - 56:28for all you've done to elevate this issue
-
56:28 - 56:30and for spending this time with us now.
-
56:30 - 56:31Thank you.
-
56:31 - 56:32AG: Back at you. Thank you.
- Title:
- The new urgency of climate change
- Speaker:
- Al Gore
- Description:
-
The coronavirus brought much of the world to a standstill, dropping carbon emissions by five percent. Al Gore says keeping those rates down is now up to us. In this illuminating interview, he discusses how the steadily declining cost of wind and solar energy will transform manufacturing, transportation and agriculture, offer a cheaper alternative to fossil fuels and nuclear energy and create millions of new jobs. Stay tuned for a lively debate about geoengineering and hear Gore's thoughts about how humanity can create a clean, prosperous future through a focused global effort and a generation of young people committed to change. (This virtual conversation, hosted by head of TED Chris Anderson, was recorded June 23, 2020.)
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 56:45
Erin Gregory edited English subtitles for The new urgency of climate change | ||
Erin Gregory approved English subtitles for The new urgency of climate change | ||
Erin Gregory edited English subtitles for The new urgency of climate change | ||
Camille Martínez accepted English subtitles for The new urgency of climate change | ||
Camille Martínez edited English subtitles for The new urgency of climate change | ||
Camille Martínez edited English subtitles for The new urgency of climate change | ||
Joseph Geni edited English subtitles for The new urgency of climate change | ||
Joseph Geni edited English subtitles for The new urgency of climate change |