[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:03.66,0:00:08.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We received a wonderful example of -- for\Nthe kinds of bargains we studied
Dialogue: 0,0:00:08.50,0:00:10.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the weeks on inductive reasoning.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:11.00,0:00:16.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We studied generalization, and we studied\Napplications of those generalizations.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:17.38,0:00:21.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And using that for causal reasoning that\Nwe tested by manipulations
Dialogue: 0,0:00:21.32,0:00:23.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and by the sufficient condition tests,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:23.66,0:00:27.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and all of those are brought together \Nin a wonderful little video.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.87,0:00:29.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, take a look.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:30.43,0:00:31.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,>> Hello.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:31.67,0:00:34.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My name's Catriona, and I live in Sweden.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.78,0:00:40.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I've spent many years, eating a little bit\Nof chocolate everyday.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:40.64,0:00:45.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I've always strongly believed that\Neating chocolate makes you happier.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:45.99,0:00:50.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In other words, most people will be \Nin a better mood
Dialogue: 0,0:00:50.27,0:00:52.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,after they've eaten chocolate \Nthan before.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:54.01,0:00:56.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I'll give you four pieces of evidence
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.20,0:00:57.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in support of my conclusion.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.79,0:01:03.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Evidence one: I've met a lot of people\Nover the years
Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.72,0:01:09.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and when I give them some of my chocolate, \Nthey always seem happy about it.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:09.43,0:01:14.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I can't think of a single case \Nof someone eating chocolate
Dialogue: 0,0:01:14.42,0:01:17.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who hasn't looked satisfied afterwards.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:19.65,0:01:24.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Evidence two: It could be that
Dialogue: 0,0:01:24.08,0:01:27.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,eating chocolate isn't really causing\Ntheir happiness.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:27.84,0:01:30.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're just happy people eating\Nchocolate.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.58,0:01:35.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, I asked unhappy people whether they\Never eat chocolate.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:35.62,0:01:40.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they confirmed that they do, \Nprecisely because it cheers them up.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.54,0:01:43.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Evidence three:
Dialogue: 0,0:01:45.02,0:01:51.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I went to a chocolate factory where\Nthe workers get free chocolate every day.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:52.38,0:01:56.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And these people could theoretically be\Nunhappy like the rest of us could.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.89,0:02:02.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they all had smiles on their faces,\Nand some smears of chocolate.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:04.32,0:02:10.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Evidence four: You may ask whether these\Npeople are also in love
Dialogue: 0,0:02:10.95,0:02:13.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's love that's causing\Nthe happiness,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:13.13,0:02:14.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not actually the chocolate.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:15.76,0:02:20.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I had to find people who eat chocolate,\Nbut are not in love.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.44,0:02:24.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I did a mini survey at my corner shop.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.94,0:02:30.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And 80% of the people who responded that\Nthey were not in love,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.77,0:02:34.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,reported that they definitely felt \Ntheir mood improve
Dialogue: 0,0:02:34.91,0:02:36.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when they ate chocolate.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.69,0:02:40.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, it does seem to be the case that
Dialogue: 0,0:02:40.44,0:02:44.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,eating chocolate is probably sufficient \Nto improve your mood.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:46.21,0:02:50.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Obviously there are people who never eat\Nchocolate and are very happy.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.03,0:02:54.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example a successful dieter \Nor your dentist.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.77,0:03:00.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can find happiness by falling in love\Nor getting promoted
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.85,0:03:05.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or finally reaching the top of Mt.\NEverest, whatever's your biggest dream.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:06.34,0:03:09.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But for an instant helping of happiness,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:10.37,0:03:20.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,chocolate will cheer you up, mm.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:23.41,0:03:24.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,>> Wasn't that great?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.45,0:03:27.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I already knew that I loved chocolate
Dialogue: 0,0:03:27.61,0:03:28.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that it improved my mood,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.75,0:03:31.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so maybe I was convinced \Nby this argument
Dialogue: 0,0:03:31.36,0:03:34.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because, I already believed \Nthe conclusion.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.94,0:03:36.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's when you ought to be careful.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.36,0:03:41.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When you look at an argument, and it's for\Na conclusion you already believed,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:41.30,0:03:45.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then there's going to be a tendency \Nto think it's a great argument.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:45.88,0:03:47.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so if you really want to know
Dialogue: 0,0:03:47.48,0:03:49.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether it is or is not a good argument.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:49.61,0:03:53.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You gotta look carefully at the ones that\Nare trying convince you
Dialogue: 0,0:03:53.04,0:03:56.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of things that already had a tendency to\Nbelieve in the first place.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.68,0:03:58.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's look carefully at her conclusion.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.22,0:04:03.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Catriona's conclusion was very carefully\Nqualified.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:03.47,0:04:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,On the one hand, she said that chocolate\Nis one of the things that makes you happy.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:10.00,0:04:11.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,She doesn't claim that it's the only thing
Dialogue: 0,0:04:11.68,0:04:13.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that makes you happy: you know,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:13.51,0:04:16.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Love might make you happy, climbing \NMount Everest might make you happy,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.75,0:04:18.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all kinds of things can make you happy.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.28,0:04:20.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,She's only claiming that \Nchocolate's one of them.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:21.42,0:04:24.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Another qualification, is that she says
Dialogue: 0,0:04:24.26,0:04:27.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,chocolate will probably \Nimprove your mood.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:28.36,0:04:29.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,She don't say it's definitely,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:30.10,0:04:32.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,don't say it works always, \Nor for all people.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:32.49,0:04:36.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it'll probably improve your mood:\Nso it's an inductive argument,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:36.57,0:04:39.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and she doesn't have to prove it \Nbeyond a shadow of a doubt.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:39.68,0:04:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's a good move in an argument, \Nbecause it's very hard to prove things
Dialogue: 0,0:04:43.01,0:04:44.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,beyond a shadow of a doubt.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:45.68,0:04:49.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But there is one part of her conclusion\Nthat makes the argument difficult.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:49.46,0:04:53.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's that she says chocolate\Nimproves your mood.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:53.76,0:04:55.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now that's a causal claim.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:55.05,0:04:58.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's not just that you eat chocolate \Nand you also happen to be happy.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:58.76,0:05:01.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's that eating chocolate causes you
Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.74,0:05:03.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be happier than you were before,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:03.93,0:05:06.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that is, to be in a better mood \Nthan you were before.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.03,0:05:10.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's see if the different bits of \Nevidence that she presents
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.77,0:05:14.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,really do support that conclusion.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:16.14,0:05:19.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the first bit of evidence \Nthat Catriona provides is this.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:19.92,0:05:23.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Now I've met a lot of people, over the\Nyears, and whenever
Dialogue: 0,0:05:23.68,0:05:27.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I give them some of my chocolate they're\Nclearly happy about it."
Dialogue: 0,0:05:28.72,0:05:29.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What kind of argument is that?
Dialogue: 0,0:05:30.44,0:05:33.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That is a statistical generalization \Nfrom a sample,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.63,0:05:35.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because she hadn't met \Neverybody in the world,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.92,0:05:37.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,she's only met some people.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:37.59,0:05:42.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the sample that she's been able to\Ncheck, they've all liked chocolate.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:43.59,0:05:45.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,She adds one more claim:
Dialogue: 0,0:05:45.58,0:05:49.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"I can't think of a single case of \Nsomeone eating chocolate
Dialogue: 0,0:05:49.33,0:05:51.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and not looking satisfied afterwards."
Dialogue: 0,0:05:51.59,0:05:53.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You know, this is kind of repetitious,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:53.29,0:05:54.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because she says \Nshe can't think of a case.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.79,0:05:58.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,She just told you that whenever she gives\Nthem chocolate, then they're happy
Dialogue: 0,0:05:58.28,0:06:03.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and if they're happy they're satisfied,\Nand so maybe that doesn't add too much.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:03.03,0:06:04.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's still a generalization.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:04.68,0:06:07.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What are we going to think about this\Ngeneralization?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:07.91,0:06:10.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, let's assume that \Nshe's got a lot of friends.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:10.73,0:06:13.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, she's checked a lot of people, she's\Ngiven a lot of people chocolate
Dialogue: 0,0:06:13.48,0:06:15.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and -- and they're all happy.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:15.41,0:06:17.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, is the premise true?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.88,0:06:21.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, do we believe \Nthat every single person
Dialogue: 0,0:06:22.35,0:06:26.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that she gave chocolate to \Nwas satisfied and happy?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:26.56,0:06:29.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I kind of tend to doubt that, Catriona, \Nsorry, but --
Dialogue: 0,0:06:30.12,0:06:34.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's just, such uniformity is unusual \Namong human beings.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:35.61,0:06:37.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so my bet is that a couple of them\Ndidn't.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:37.71,0:06:40.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But notice that she didn't really need\Nthat, because
Dialogue: 0,0:06:40.28,0:06:44.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,she's only arguing that giving chocolate \Nwill probably improve your mood,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:44.40,0:06:46.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not that it always will for everybody.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:46.75,0:06:50.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So she doesn't need that strong claim\Nabout everybody.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:50.14,0:06:55.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So she's still on pretty firm ground with \Nregard to claiming that almost everybody,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:55.74,0:07:00.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or most of the people, have improved their\Nmood when she gave them chocolate.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:01.04,0:07:03.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We still might worry about a bias sample.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.08,0:07:06.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There might be some cultures out there, \Nor some types of people out there,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:06.50,0:07:07.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that don't like chocolate.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:07.57,0:07:09.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Maybe they're allergic to chocolate,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:09.10,0:07:11.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or something like that, \Nthat would be really sad,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:11.03,0:07:13.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm sorry to even think about that, \Nit makes me sad.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:13.72,0:07:17.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But, there probably are, and they're\Npeople that don't like chocolate.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:17.24,0:07:19.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, it's not going to work for them.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:20.00,0:07:23.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So maybe she wants to qualify her\Nconclusion a little bit, you know,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:23.43,0:07:24.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"among the groups that I've met:
Dialogue: 0,0:07:24.53,0:07:27.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,different cultures might be different,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:27.03,0:07:31.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,different biological conditions might make\Npeople allergic to chocolate."
Dialogue: 0,0:07:31.04,0:07:33.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But, with regard to most of the people\Nshe's met,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:33.97,0:07:36.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,chocolate seems to work pretty well.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:36.52,0:07:39.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we've got now a statistical\Ngeneralization:
Dialogue: 0,0:07:39.76,0:07:43.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Most people, if you give them chocolate, \Nit improves their mood."
Dialogue: 0,0:07:44.51,0:07:45.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Great.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:45.70,0:07:49.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What does that show you about you, because\Nremember her conclusion is
Dialogue: 0,0:07:49.10,0:07:53.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that if you have chocolate, then that\Nchocolate will probably improve your mood.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:53.60,0:07:56.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So now she needs to take that\Ngeneralization
Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.14,0:07:59.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and apply it back down \Nto you as an individual,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:59.23,0:08:03.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to make a prediction about what'll happen\Nto you if you eat some chocolate.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:04.45,0:08:08.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So in this particular bit of evidence, she\Nneeds to generalize up
Dialogue: 0,0:08:08.83,0:08:11.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to "most people will have their mood\Nimproved
Dialogue: 0,0:08:11.43,0:08:13.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if they eat chocolate," and then back down\Nagain.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:13.70,0:08:15.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And since that's true with most people,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:15.28,0:08:17.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you're not special in any particular\Nway
Dialogue: 0,0:08:19.12,0:08:21.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,-- or it would be a conflicting \Nreference class fallacy --
Dialogue: 0,0:08:22.74,0:08:24.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,since you're not special \Nin any particular way,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:24.81,0:08:27.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the chocolate will also improve \Nyour mood.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:27.01,0:08:29.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's the way this first bit of evidence\Nseems to go.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:30.98,0:08:33.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So now we're ready for her second bit of\Nevidence.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:33.42,0:08:36.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's get all adjusted here
Dialogue: 0,0:08:36.15,0:08:40.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so that we can think about this new \Nbit of evidence that Catriona provides.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:40.97,0:08:43.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, what she says is:
Dialogue: 0,0:08:43.71,0:08:48.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it could be that chocolate isn't really \Ncausing the happiness.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:49.24,0:08:54.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Maybe they were just happy \Nbefore eating the chocolate.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:54.58,0:08:55.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, that's a problem.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:56.10,0:08:58.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you're going to say that it improves\Npeople's moods
Dialogue: 0,0:08:58.77,0:08:59.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when they eat chocolate,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:59.88,0:09:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's not good enough \Nthat people are already happy,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.00,0:09:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then that makes' em want to eat\Nchocolate.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:05.00,0:09:07.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so they eat chocolate to celebrate how\Nhappy they are.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.40,0:09:13.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well you gotta prove that it actually does\Ncause the improvement in the mood.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:13.98,0:09:16.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, how are you going to do that?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.63,0:09:20.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, we looked, in the lectures on\Ninduction, at causal reasoning.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:21.48,0:09:23.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What you need to do is manipulate.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:24.85,0:09:27.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You want to look at people who are not\Nhappy
Dialogue: 0,0:09:27.41,0:09:30.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and see if the chocolate makes them \Ngo up in mood
Dialogue: 0,0:09:30.57,0:09:34.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and manipulate the amount of chocolate,\Nmanipulate how happy they are,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:34.14,0:09:36.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and see how those have effects \Non each other.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:36.18,0:09:38.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's how you decide among the\Nhypotheses.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:38.56,0:09:40.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's exactly what
Dialogue: 0,0:09:41.24,0:09:42.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Catriona does.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:42.89,0:09:46.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"So I asked some unhappy people\Nwhether they ever eat chocolate,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:46.93,0:09:51.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they confirmed that they do,\Nprecisely because it cheers them up."
Dialogue: 0,0:09:52.00,0:09:55.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Ah, so now we have a sample of people, \Nwhere we've manipulated their happiness.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:55.74,0:09:57.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We've looked at happy people and unhappy\Npeople.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:58.32,0:10:00.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We've looked at people at times \Nwhen they're happy
Dialogue: 0,0:10:00.14,0:10:01.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and times when they're unhappy.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:01.69,0:10:04.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then we can look at their chocolate\Nconsumption
Dialogue: 0,0:10:04.69,0:10:07.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we can check to make sure \Nthat they're happier afterwards.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:08.17,0:10:12.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's just like \Nchecking whether smoking causes cancer.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:12.77,0:10:14.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We talked about that in the lectures on\Ninduction.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:15.58,0:10:17.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you want to know \Nwhether smoking causes cancer,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:18.27,0:10:22.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what you do is you induce smoking \Nin creatures
Dialogue: 0,0:10:22.87,0:10:26.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,-- in this case, lab monkeys -- \Nthat did not previously smoke
Dialogue: 0,0:10:26.92,0:10:29.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and see whether that increases \Ntheir cancer rate.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:29.10,0:10:30.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what she's doing is she's saying:
Dialogue: 0,0:10:30.68,0:10:33.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"let's take people that \Ndon't have happiness,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:33.66,0:10:37.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,give them chocolate, and see \Nif that increases their happiness."
Dialogue: 0,0:10:37.37,0:10:40.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So she's using exactly the kind of\Nmanipulation test
Dialogue: 0,0:10:40.33,0:10:43.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we talked about \Nin the lectures on induction.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:44.24,0:10:45.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Good job, Catriona.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:46.74,0:10:48.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now let's switch to the fourth bit of\Nevidence,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:48.92,0:10:50.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I want to get ready for that one too.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:51.76,0:10:56.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, what Catriona says for her fourth\Nbit of evidence is:
Dialogue: 0,0:10:56.65,0:10:59.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"you may ask, what if all these people \Nare also in love,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:59.66,0:11:02.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's love that's making them happy, \Nnot really chocolate?"
Dialogue: 0,0:11:02.91,0:11:04.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because remember, \Nshe doesn't want to claim
Dialogue: 0,0:11:04.40,0:11:06.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,chocolate's the only thing \Nthat makes you happy.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:06.69,0:11:08.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Love might be sufficient for happiness,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:08.63,0:11:11.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just like chocolate \Nalso causes happiness.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:13.37,0:11:15.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How are we going to tell which one it is?
Dialogue: 0,0:11:16.82,0:11:19.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, in the lectures on causal\Nreasoning,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:19.35,0:11:22.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when we were looking at the tables,\Nand the diners who died
Dialogue: 0,0:11:22.42,0:11:26.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from the poisoned food, \None of the points that we made
Dialogue: 0,0:11:26.69,0:11:30.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was that if you have two candidates \Nfor a sufficient condition,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:30.60,0:11:33.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you've gotta look at situations \Nwhere one of them is present
Dialogue: 0,0:11:33.46,0:11:35.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,without the other and the other present\Nwithout the first one.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:36.12,0:11:39.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's exactly what Catriona does.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:39.98,0:11:44.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,She says, I had to find people who eat\Nchocolate, but are not in love.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:45.15,0:11:47.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Whoa, well that's what \Nyou're looking for,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:47.77,0:11:50.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because if you have some people \Nwho eat chocolate,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:50.06,0:11:50.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but are not in love,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:50.98,0:11:54.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and some people who are not in love \Nbut eat chocolate, you can test it.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:54.84,0:11:55.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what did she find?
Dialogue: 0,0:11:56.99,0:12:01.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well: "I did a mini-survey \Noutside my nearest corner shop,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:01.56,0:12:04.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and 80% if the people who confessed
Dialogue: 0,0:12:04.25,0:12:05.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they were not in love
Dialogue: 0,0:12:05.85,0:12:09.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,said they definitely felt their mood \Nimprove when they ate chocolate.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:10.20,0:12:13.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Notice she's not claiming it's so\Nuniversal, 100% anymore,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:13.26,0:12:15.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,she's down to 80%: \Ngood move.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:16.03,0:12:20.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But in addition, she's now ruled out that\Nit's really the love
Dialogue: 0,0:12:20.44,0:12:23.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's the only sufficient condition: \Neven when the love's not present,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:23.44,0:12:27.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you still get happiness \Nwith eating chocolate.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:28.06,0:12:32.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that's applying one of the tests that\Nwe talked about
Dialogue: 0,0:12:32.59,0:12:36.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the section on causal reasoning to test\Nfor sufficient conditions.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:37.69,0:12:42.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, we've done our bits of evidence one\Nand two and four.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:42.94,0:12:44.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We skipped over number three.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:44.49,0:12:48.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what's your third bit of evidence?\NNow, we've gotta look at that one.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:50.90,0:12:55.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, what Catriona says is: \N"I went to a chocolate factory
Dialogue: 0,0:12:55.47,0:12:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where all the workers \Neat chocolate every day."
Dialogue: 0,0:13:00.48,0:13:02.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not only that, it's free.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:02.18,0:13:06.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Free chocolate! Yeah, mm!
Dialogue: 0,0:13:07.49,0:13:08.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I love it.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:09.52,0:13:13.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Like everyone else, these people could\Ntheoretically be unhappy,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:13.14,0:13:16.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they have smiles on their faces."
Dialogue: 0,0:13:16.46,0:13:17.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Wouldn't you?
Dialogue: 0,0:13:17.22,0:13:18.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Free chocolate all day long.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:19.16,0:13:22.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But wait a minute, wait a minute:\Nis this a good argument?
Dialogue: 0,0:13:23.17,0:13:25.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Like I said, it's a conclusion I like.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:25.94,0:13:27.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But we still gotta look at it critically.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:27.76,0:13:32.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Sorry, Catriona, \Nthese people are happy,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:32.83,0:13:37.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but how do you know that they're happy\Nbecause of the chocolate, right?
Dialogue: 0,0:13:37.54,0:13:40.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They've got a job in the factory,\NIt's good having a job.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:42.07,0:13:45.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Chocolate's very popular, so maybe the\Nfactory's doing really well,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:45.07,0:13:48.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which means they can pay them \Nmore money, better benefits, good job:
Dialogue: 0,0:13:48.77,0:13:50.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,maybe that's what's making them happy?
Dialogue: 0,0:13:50.32,0:13:52.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Sure, all these people in the factory \Nare happy.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:53.44,0:13:55.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it might not be the chocolate.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:55.75,0:13:58.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It might be the fact \Nthat they got a good job.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:58.65,0:14:03.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I think this fourth bit of evidence is\Nnot really all that strong.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:04.13,0:14:07.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Her number three, by the way:\Nthe fourth one we considered.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:08.21,0:14:10.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not all that strong:\Nnow, what does that show you?
Dialogue: 0,0:14:10.26,0:14:13.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You could say: \N"Wait a minute, she's got four arguments,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:13.05,0:14:16.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one of them's no good, \Nso it all is back to nothing.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:17.33,0:14:19.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But of course, that's not \Nthe right way to think about it.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:19.78,0:14:21.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,She gave us four bits of evidence.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:22.14,0:14:24.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If one of them doesn't work, \Nand we've only got three left,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:24.82,0:14:26.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we've still got three left.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:26.42,0:14:32.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if those first three bits of evidence\Nare good, and if they show at least
Dialogue: 0,0:14:32.09,0:14:35.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it'll probably improve your mood,\Nand they establish
Dialogue: 0,0:14:35.26,0:14:38.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the cause of conclusion that she claimed, \Nthen it seems to me
Dialogue: 0,0:14:38.59,0:14:43.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,she's given us pretty good evidence for\Nthe conclusion she was claiming.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:43.35,0:14:48.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in doing so, she's exemplified a lot\Nof the different forms of reasoning
Dialogue: 0,0:14:48.57,0:14:51.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we studied in the weeks \Non inductive reasoning.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:51.53,0:14:53.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, thank you very much, Catriona,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:53.53,0:14:57.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for submitting this wonderful video, \Nthis wonderful argument.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:57.68,0:15:00.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We all learned from it \Nand we appreciate it.