Return to Video

There's No Tomorrow (2012)

  • 0:23 - 0:31
    NINCS HOLNAP
  • 0:47 - 0:49
    Ez a Föld bolygó,
  • 0:49 - 0:51
    kilencvenmillió évvel ezelőtt.
  • 0:51 - 0:55
    A geológusok a kései krétakornak nevezik ezt az időszakot.
  • 0:55 - 0:58
    Ez a drasztikus globális fölmelegedés kora volt,
  • 0:58 - 1:00
    mikor még a dinoszauruszok uralták a bolygót.
  • 1:01 - 1:03
    Csak élték az életüket,
  • 1:03 - 1:05
    biztonságban érezvén magukat a tápláléklánc tetején,
  • 1:08 - 1:10
    észre sem véve a körülöttük történő változásokat.
  • 1:11 - 1:12
    A kontinensek egyre jobban eltávolodtak,
  • 1:12 - 1:15
    hatalmas repedéseket létrehozva a Föld felszínén.
  • 1:16 - 1:19
    Ezek megteltek vízzel, s tengerekké váltak.
  • 1:20 - 1:22
    Az algák tömegesen szaporodtak a melegben,
  • 1:22 - 1:24
    megmérgezvén a vizeket.
  • 1:25 - 1:26
    Aztán elpusztultak,
  • 1:26 - 1:29
    s lesüllyedtek, milliószám, a tengerfenékre.
  • 1:32 - 1:34
    A folyók üledéket sodortak a tengerekbe,
  • 1:34 - 1:36
    mígnem az algák szerves maradványai eltemetve nyugodtak.
  • 1:38 - 1:41
    Ahogy a nyomás emelkedett, úgy nőtt a hőmérséklet is,
  • 1:41 - 1:43
    mígnem a szerves anyagokat a kémiai reakciók
  • 1:43 - 1:46
    átalakították szerves, szénhidrát energiahordozókká:
  • 1:46 - 1:49
    olajjá és földgázzá.
  • 1:49 - 1:51
    A szárazföldön hasonló folyamat játszódott le,
  • 1:52 - 1:54
    amelynek eredménye a szén.
  • 1:55 - 1:57
    A természetnek nagyjából ötmillió évébe tartott, hogy létrejöjjön
  • 1:57 - 2:02
    az a fosszilis energiahordozó-mennyiség, amelyet a világ egy év alatt elemészt.
  • 2:02 - 2:03
    A modern életvitel rá van utalva
  • 2:03 - 2:06
    a fosszilizált napfényre -
  • 2:06 - 2:10
    noha azt meglepően sok ember magától értetődőnek veszi.
  • 2:13 - 2:18
    1860 óta a geológusok kétbillió hordó olajat fedeztek föl.
  • 2:19 - 2:23
    Azóta ennek nagyjából a felét használta el a világ
  • 2:26 - 2:29
    Mielőtt az ember felhasználhatná az olajat, fel kell fedezze.
  • 2:30 - 2:33
    Persze először könnyű volt megtalálni és kitermelni.
  • 2:33 - 2:36
    Az első nagy amerikai olajmező Spindletop volt,
  • 2:37 - 2:39
    amelyet 1900-ban találtak meg.
  • 2:39 - 2:40
    Sok-sok másik követte.
  • 2:41 - 2:43
    A geológusok végigvadászták Amerikát,
  • 2:43 - 2:47
    s hatalmas olaj-, földgáz- és szántartalékokra bukkantak.
  • 2:48 - 2:51
    Amerika több olajat termelt ki, mint bármely más ország,
  • 2:51 - 2:54
    ezzel megalapozván az ipari nagyhatalommá való válását.
  • 2:56 - 2:58
    Azonban miután az olajkúton megkezdődik a termelés,
  • 2:58 - 3:01
    csak idő kérdése, hogy mikor kezd el csökkeni.
  • 3:02 - 3:05
    A különböző kutaknak más-más termelési mutatóik vannak .
  • 3:06 - 3:07
    Ha az összes kutat átlagoljuk,
  • 3:07 - 3:10
    az összesített függvény harang alakú lesz.
  • 3:10 - 3:11
    Általában negyven évig tart
  • 3:11 - 3:14
    a felfedezett olajmezők számának csúcsa után,
  • 3:14 - 3:16
    hogy egy adott ország elérje a kitermelési csúcsot,
  • 3:17 - 3:20
    ami után viszont a termelés folyamatosan csökken.
  • 3:21 - 3:23
    Az ötvenes években
  • 3:23 - 3:25
    a Shell geofizikusa, M. King Hubbert
  • 3:25 - 3:29
    azt jósolta, hogy Amerika 1970 körül éri el a kitermelési csúcsot,
  • 3:29 - 3:33
    40 évvel a felfedezett olajmezők számának csúcsa után.
  • 3:33 - 3:35
    Kevesen hittek neki.
  • 3:35 - 3:37
    Aztán 1970-ben...
  • 3:37 - 3:39
    az amerikai olajkitermelés elérte a csúcsot,
  • 3:39 - 3:41
    és visszafordíthatatlanul esni kezdett.
  • 3:42 - 3:44
    Hubbert jóslata beigazolódott.
  • 3:45 - 3:46
    Ettől a pillanattól fogva
  • 3:46 - 3:50
    Amerika egyre jobban függött az importált olajtól.
  • 3:50 - 3:53
    Ezek persze sebezhetővé tették a szállítási fennakadásokkal szemben,
  • 3:53 - 3:57
    ami hozzájárult az 1973-as gazdasági katasztrófához,
  • 3:57 - 4:00
    majd a '79-es "olajsokkhoz".
  • 4:02 - 4:06
    Az Egyesült Államok történetében, a legtöbb olaj feltárás a harmincas években történt.
  • 4:06 - 4:08
    A fejlett technológia dacára
  • 4:08 - 4:13
    az újonnan feltárt olajmezők számában tapasztalható csökkenés könyörtelen volt.
  • 4:14 - 4:17
    A legtöbb új mező, mint az ANWAR,
  • 4:17 - 4:21
    a legjobb esetben is mindösszesen 17 hónapra elegendő olajat tartalmaz.
  • 4:24 - 4:25
    Még a legújabb "Jack 2" nevű mező is, a Mexikói-öbölben,
  • 4:25 - 4:28
    csak néhány hónapig tudja biztosítani a belföldi ellátást.
  • 4:29 - 4:32
    Noha mindkét mező nagy, egyik sem közelíti meg az elégséges méretet
  • 4:32 - 4:34
    Amerika igényének a kielégítéséhez.
  • 4:36 - 4:37
    Egyre jobban gyűlnek a bizonyítékok,
  • 4:37 - 4:41
    hogy a világ olajkitermelése most éri el a csúcsát, vagy pedig afelé közelít.
  • 4:41 - 4:46
    Globálisan, az új olajmezők feltárásának száma a 60-as években érte el a tetőzést.
  • 4:47 - 4:48
    Több mint 40 évvel később,
  • 4:48 - 4:50
    az új mezők felfedezésének hanyatlása,
  • 4:50 - 4:52
    megállíthatatlannak tűnik.
  • 4:54 - 4:56
    54 ország a 65 fő olajkitermelő ország közül
  • 4:56 - 4:59
    már elérte a kitermelési csúcsot.
  • 5:01 - 5:05
    A többi ország pedig várhatóan követi őket a közeljövőben.
  • 5:06 - 5:08
    A világnak háromévente szüksége lesz
  • 5:08 - 5:10
    egy új Szaúd-Arábiára,
  • 5:11 - 5:14
    hogy behozza a meglévő mezők hozamának csökkenését.
  • 5:16 - 5:17
    A hatvanas években,
  • 5:17 - 5:20
    hatszor több hordó olajat találtak, mint amennyit felhasználtak.
  • 5:21 - 5:22
    Évtizedekkel később,
  • 5:22 - 5:26
    a világ olaj felhasználása 3-6-szor több,
  • 5:26 - 5:27
    mint amennyit találnak.
  • 5:29 - 5:31
    Miután a világ olajhozama eléri a csúcsot,
  • 5:31 - 5:34
    az olaj iránti kereslet megelőzi a kínálatot,
  • 5:34 - 5:36
    és a gázolaj ára féktelen hullámzásba fog kezdeni,
  • 5:36 - 5:39
    amely sokkal több dolgot befolyásol, mint az üzemanyagárak.
  • 5:42 - 5:44
    A modern városok alá vannak rendelve a fosszilis üzemanyagoknak.
  • 5:44 - 5:46
    Még az utak is, amelyek aszfaltból vannak,
  • 5:46 - 5:48
    kőolajalapúak,
  • 5:48 - 5:50
    csakúgy, mint nagyon sok ház teteje is.
  • 5:51 - 5:53
    Hatalmas területek lennének lakhatatlanok
  • 5:53 - 5:57
    fűtés nélkül télen, vagy légkondícionálás nélkül nyáron.
  • 5:58 - 6:01
    A külvárosi terjeszkedés arra ösztönzi az embereket, hogy mérföldeket autózzanak
  • 6:01 - 6:03
    a munkába, iskolába és a boltokba.
  • 6:04 - 6:06
    A nagyobb városok fel vannak osztva lakó
  • 6:06 - 6:09
    és kereskedelmi negyedekre egymástól távol elhelyezve,
  • 6:09 - 6:11
    arra kényszerítve az embereket, hogy autózzanak.
  • 6:11 - 6:13
    A külvárosok és sok közösség
  • 6:13 - 6:16
    a bőséges olaj és energia felhasználás alapjára vannak tervezve.
  • 6:20 - 6:21
    A vegyianyagok amelyek fosszilis üzemanyagokból származnak
  • 6:21 - 6:23
    vagy petro-kémiai anyagokból,
  • 6:23 - 6:24
    számtalan termék gyártásában nélkülözhetetlenek.
  • 6:28 - 6:30
    A mezőgazdaság modern rendszere
  • 6:30 - 6:32
    erősen támaszkodik a fosszilis energiahordozókra,
  • 6:32 - 6:33
    csakúgy mint a kórházak ,
  • 6:34 - 6:35
    légi közlekedés,
  • 6:35 - 6:37
    vízellátó rendszerek,
  • 6:37 - 6:38
    és az amerikai hadsereg,
  • 6:38 - 6:43
    amely egymaga, körülbelül 140 millió hordó olajat használ el évente.
  • 6:44 - 6:48
    A kőolaj elengedhetetlen továbbá a műanyagok, polimerek gyártásában,
  • 6:48 - 6:53
    kulcsfontosságú összetevője a számitógépeknek, szórakoztató eszközöknek és a ruhaiparnak.
  • 6:54 - 6:57
    A világgazdaság jelenleg a végtelen növekedésen alapszik,
  • 6:57 - 7:01
    igényelve az olcsó energia növekvő kínálatát.
  • 7:01 - 7:04
    Annyira függünk az olajtól és egyéb fosszilis energiahordozóktól,
  • 7:04 - 7:07
    hogy még egy apró zavar az ellátásban is
  • 7:07 - 7:10
    messzemenő következményekkel járna, életünk minden tekintetében.
  • 7:17 - 7:22
    ENERGIA
  • 7:23 - 7:26
    A munkavégzéshez energia szükséges.
  • 7:26 - 7:36
    Ma egy átlagos amerikai, 150 rabszolga 24 órás munkájával egyenlő energiát vesz igénybe.
  • 7:36 - 7:39
    Azok az anyagok amelyek ezt az energiát tárolják a munkához, üzemanyagnak hívjuk.
  • 7:39 - 7:42
    Néhány üzemanyag több energiát tárol mint a többi.
  • 7:42 - 7:46
    Ezt hívják energiasűrűségnek.
  • 7:46 - 7:50
    Ezek közöl az olaj a legkritikusabb.
  • 7:50 - 7:51
    A világ éves kőolaj fogyasztása 30 milliárd hordó,
  • 7:52 - 7:54
    ez 1 köbmérföld olajjal egyenlő,
  • 7:55 - 7:56
    amely annyi energiát tartalmaz,
  • 7:56 - 7:59
    amit 52 nukleáris erőmű tudna megtermelni
  • 7:59 - 8:02
    a következő 50 évig.
  • 8:03 - 8:07
    Habár olajjal csupán az elektromosáram 1,6%-át termelik,
  • 8:08 - 8:11
    ez látja el energiával a közlekedés 96 százalékát.
  • 8:12 - 8:15
    2008-ban, Amerika olajkészletének 2/3-a importból származott.
  • 8:16 - 8:18
    A legtöbb Kanadából,
  • 8:18 - 8:19
    Mexikóból,
  • 8:20 - 8:21
    Szaúd Arábiából,
  • 8:21 - 8:23
    Venezuelából,
  • 8:23 - 8:26
    Nigériából, Irakból és Angólából ment.
  • 8:27 - 8:29
    Több tényező teszi az olajat különlegessé:
  • 8:29 - 8:31
    energiában gazdag.
  • 8:33 - 8:35
    Egyetlen hordó olaj annyi energiát tartalmaz, amely megegyezik
  • 8:35 - 8:37
    csaknem 3 évnyi emberi munkával.
  • 8:38 - 8:40
    Szobahőmérsékleten folyékony halmazállapotú,
  • 8:40 - 8:42
    könnyű szállítani,
  • 8:42 - 8:44
    és használható kis motorokban.
  • 8:45 - 8:48
    Ahhoz, hogy hozzájuss az energiához, energiát kell felhasználnod.
  • 8:49 - 8:53
    Az a trükk, hogy kisebb energia mennyiséggel találnak és nyernek ki nagyobb energia mennyiséget.
  • 8:53 - 8:56
    Ezt hívják EROEI-nak:
  • 8:56 - 8:59
    Energy Return on Energy Invested (Energetikai megtérülés)
  • 9:02 - 9:04
    Hagyományosan, az olaj egy jó példa erre.
  • 9:04 - 9:08
    A könnyen feldolgozható, magas minőségű nyersolaj lett először kitermelve.
  • 9:09 - 9:15
    Az olaj mágnás 1 hordó olaj energiájának befektetésével talált meg és dolgozott fel 100 hordó olajat.
  • 9:15 - 9:18
    Az olaj EROEI-je 100 volt.
  • 9:19 - 9:21
    Amint legelőször a könnyen hozzáférhető olajat ktermelték,
  • 9:21 - 9:24
    a kutatások áthelyeződtek a mély tengerekre,
  • 9:24 - 9:26
    vagy a távoli országokba,
  • 9:26 - 9:29
    egyre több energia felhasználásával.
  • 9:29 - 9:32
    Gyakran az olaj, amit ma találunk, nehéz vagy savanyú nyersolaj
  • 9:32 - 9:35
    és ennek drága a finomítása.
  • 9:36 - 9:40
    Az EROEI értéke ma az olajnak alacsonyabb mint 10.
  • 9:40 - 9:44
    Ha több energiát használsz el az üzemanyag kinyerésére mint amennyi energiát az tartalmaz,
  • 9:44 - 9:47
    akkor az nem éri meg az erőfeszítést.
  • 9:50 - 9:53
    Lehetőség van rá, hogy egy üzemanyagforrást átalakítsunk egy másikra.
  • 9:54 - 9:54
    Minden alkalommal amikor így teszünk,
  • 9:54 - 9:58
    valamennyi energia elveszlik az eredeti üzemanyagból.
  • 9:59 - 10:01
    For instance, there is unconventional oil:
  • 10:01 - 10:03
    Tar Sands and Shale.
  • 10:04 - 10:07
    Tar Sands are found mainly in Canada.
  • 10:07 - 10:10
    Two thirds of the world's shale is in the US.
  • 10:11 - 10:14
    Both of these fuels can be converted to synthetic crude oil.
  • 10:14 - 10:17
    However, this requires large amounts of heat and fresh water,
  • 10:17 - 10:19
    reducing their EROEI,
  • 10:19 - 10:23
    which varies from five, to as low as one and a half.
  • 10:24 - 10:26
    Shale is an exceptionally poor fuel,
  • 10:26 - 10:29
    pound for pound containing about one third the energy
  • 10:29 - 10:31
    of a box of breakfast cereal.
  • 10:33 - 10:35
    Coal exists in vast quantities,
  • 10:35 - 10:38
    and generates almost half of the planet's electricity.
  • 10:39 - 10:41
    The world uses almost 2 cubic miles of coal a year.
  • 10:42 - 10:47
    However, Global coal production may peak before 2040.
  • 10:48 - 10:51
    The claim that America has centuries worth of coal is deceptive,
  • 10:51 - 10:56
    as it fails to account for growing demand, and decreasing quality.
  • 10:56 - 10:59
    Much of the high quality anthracite coal is gone,
  • 10:59 - 11:03
    leaving lower quality coal that is less energy dense.
  • 11:04 - 11:07
    Production issues arise, as surface coal is depleted,
  • 11:07 - 11:11
    and miners have to dig deeper and in less accessible areas.
  • 11:11 - 11:14
    Many use destructive mountaintop removal to reach coal deposits,
  • 11:14 - 11:17
    causing environmental mayhem.
  • 11:20 - 11:23
    Natural gas is often found alongside oil and coal.
  • 11:24 - 11:27
    North American discovery of conventional gas peaked in the 1950s,
  • 11:27 - 11:30
    and production peaked in the early 70s.
  • 11:31 - 11:34
    If the discovery graph is moved forward by 23 years,
  • 11:34 - 11:39
    the possible future of North American conventional natural gas production
  • 11:39 - 11:40
    is revealed.
  • 11:41 - 11:45
    Recent breakthroughs have allowed the extraction of unconventional natural gas,
  • 11:45 - 11:50
    such as shale gas, which might help offset decline in the years ahead.
  • 11:51 - 11:54
    Unconventional natural gas is controversial,
  • 11:54 - 11:58
    as it needs high energy prices to be profitable.
  • 11:58 - 12:00
    Even with Unconventional gas,
  • 12:00 - 12:05
    there may be a peak in global natural gas production by 2030.
  • 12:08 - 12:11
    Large uranium reserves for nuclear fission still exist.
  • 12:12 - 12:16
    To replace the 10 terawatts the world currently generates from fossil fuels,
  • 12:16 - 12:19
    would require 10,000 nuclear power plants.
  • 12:19 - 12:24
    At that rate, the known reserves of uranium would last for only 10 to 20 years.
  • 12:25 - 12:29
    Experiments with plutonium based fast-breeder reactors
  • 12:29 - 12:31
    in France and Japan
  • 12:31 - 12:33
    have been expensive failures.
  • 12:34 - 12:38
    Nuclear fusion faces massive technical obstacles.
  • 12:39 - 12:40
    Then there are the renewables.
  • 12:40 - 12:45
    Windpower has a high EROEI, but is intermittent.
  • 12:46 - 12:47
    Hydro power is reliable,
  • 12:47 - 12:51
    but most rivers in the developed world are already dammed.
  • 12:52 - 12:54
    Conventional geothermal power plants
  • 12:54 - 12:57
    use existing hotspots near the Earth's surface.
  • 12:57 - 13:00
    They are limited to those areas.
  • 13:01 - 13:03
    In the experimental EGS system,
  • 13:03 - 13:06
    two shafts would be drilled 6 miles deep.
  • 13:06 - 13:09
    Water is pumped down one shaft, to be heated in fissures,
  • 13:09 - 13:12
    then rise up the other, generating power.
  • 13:13 - 13:15
    According to a recent MIT report,
  • 13:15 - 13:21
    this technology might supply 10% of US electricity by 2050.
  • 13:22 - 13:25
    Wave power is restricted to coastal areas.
  • 13:25 - 13:29
    The energy density of waves varies from region to region.
  • 13:31 - 13:35
    Transporting wave-generated electricity inland would be challenging.
  • 13:35 - 13:39
    Also, the salty ocean environment is corrosive to turbines.
  • 13:41 - 13:43
    Biofuels are fuels that are grown.
  • 13:43 - 13:46
    Wood has a low energy density, and grows slowly.
  • 13:46 - 13:50
    The world uses 3.7 cubic miles of wood a year.
  • 13:51 - 13:53
    Biodiesel and ethanol
  • 13:53 - 13:57
    are made from crops grown by petroleum powered agriculture.
  • 13:58 - 14:01
    The energy profit from these fuels is very low.
  • 14:02 - 14:05
    Some politicians want to turn corn into ethanol.
  • 14:05 - 14:10
    Using Ethanol to supply one tenth of projected US oil use in 2020,
  • 14:10 - 14:14
    would require 3% of America's Land.
  • 14:15 - 14:19
    To supply one third would require 3 times the area now used to grow food.
  • 14:20 - 14:23
    To supply all US petroleum consumption in 2020
  • 14:23 - 14:27
    would take twice as much land as is used to grow food.
  • 14:29 - 14:34
    Hydrogen has to be extracted from Natural Gas, coal or water,
  • 14:34 - 14:37
    which uses more energy than we get from the Hydrogen.
  • 14:37 - 14:40
    This makes a Hydrogen economy unlikely.
  • 14:42 - 14:46
    All the world's photovoltaic solar panels generate as much electricity
  • 14:46 - 14:48
    as two coal power plants.
  • 14:49 - 14:51
    The equivalent of between 1 and 4 tons of coal
  • 14:51 - 14:54
    are used in the manufacture of a single solar panel.
  • 14:56 - 15:00
    We'd have to cover as many as 140,000 square miles with panels
  • 15:00 - 15:02
    to meet current world demand.
  • 15:02 - 15:07
    As of 2007, there are only about 4 square miles.
  • 15:09 - 15:12
    Concentrated Solar Power, or Solar Thermal has great potential,
  • 15:12 - 15:16
    though at the moment there are only a small number of plants operating.
  • 15:18 - 15:19
    They are also limited to sunny climates,
  • 15:19 - 15:22
    requiring large amounts of electricity
  • 15:22 - 15:24
    to be transmitted over long distances.
  • 15:26 - 15:29
    All of the alternatives to oil depend on oil-powered machinery,
  • 15:29 - 15:34
    or require materials such as plastics that are produced from oil.
  • 15:36 - 15:39
    When considering future claims of amazing new fuels or inventions,
  • 15:39 - 15:40
    ask:
  • 15:40 - 15:44
    Does the advocate have a working, commercial model of the invention?
  • 15:45 - 15:47
    What is its energy density?
  • 15:48 - 15:50
    Can it be stored or easily distributed?
  • 15:51 - 15:53
    Is it reliable or intermittent?
  • 15:53 - 15:56
    Can it be scaled to a national level?
  • 15:56 - 15:59
    Are there hidden engineering challenges?
  • 16:00 - 16:02
    What is the EROEI?
  • 16:02 - 16:05
    What are the environmental impacts?
  • 16:05 - 16:08
    Remember that large numbers can be deceptive.
  • 16:08 - 16:10
    For example: 1 billion barrels of oil
  • 16:10 - 16:14
    will satisfy global demand for only 12 days.
  • 16:15 - 16:19
    A transition from fossil fuels would be a monumental challenge.
  • 16:20 - 16:24
    As of 2007, coal generates 48.5% of U.S. electricity.
  • 16:24 - 16:27
    21.6% is from natural gas,
  • 16:27 - 16:30
    1.6% is from petroleum,
  • 16:30 - 16:33
    19.4% is from nuclear,
  • 16:33 - 16:35
    5.8% is from hydro.
  • 16:35 - 16:39
    Other renewables only generate 2.5%.
  • 16:40 - 16:43
    Is it possible to replace a system based on fossil fuels
  • 16:43 - 16:46
    with a patchwork of alternatives?
  • 16:46 - 16:49
    Major technological advances are needed,
  • 16:49 - 16:52
    as well as political will and co-operation,
  • 16:52 - 16:53
    massive investment,
  • 16:54 - 16:56
    international consensus,
  • 16:56 - 16:59
    the retrofitting of the $45 trillion global economy,
  • 16:59 - 17:02
    including transportation,
  • 17:02 - 17:03
    manufacturing industries,
  • 17:03 - 17:05
    and agricultural systems,
  • 17:05 - 17:09
    as well as officials competent to manage the transition.
  • 17:10 - 17:12
    If all these are achieved,
  • 17:12 - 17:15
    could the current way of life continue?
  • 17:19 - 17:21
    Growth
  • 17:21 - 17:23
    These bacteria live in a bottle.
  • 17:24 - 17:26
    Their population doubles every minute.
  • 17:27 - 17:29
    At 11AM there is one bacterium.
  • 17:30 - 17:32
    At 12 noon the bottle is full.
  • 17:33 - 17:35
    It is half-full at 11.59
  • 17:35 - 17:38
    leaving only enough space for one more doubling.
  • 17:39 - 17:41
    The bacteria see the danger.
  • 17:41 - 17:44
    They search for new bottles, and find 3.
  • 17:44 - 17:47
    They assume that their problem is solved.
  • 17:47 - 17:50
    By 12 noon, the first bottle is full.
  • 17:50 - 17:53
    By 12.01, the second bottle is full.
  • 17:54 - 17:57
    By 12.02, all the bottles are full.
  • 17:58 - 18:00
    This is the problem that we face,
  • 18:00 - 18:03
    due to the doubling caused by Exponential Growth.
  • 18:06 - 18:09
    When humanity began to use coal and oil as fuel sources,
  • 18:09 - 18:13
    it experienced unprecedented growth.
  • 18:14 - 18:17
    Even low growth rates produce large increases over time.
  • 18:19 - 18:20
    At a 1% growth rate,
  • 18:20 - 18:23
    an economy will double in 70 years.
  • 18:24 - 18:27
    A 2% rate doubles in 35 years.
  • 18:27 - 18:29
    At a 10% growth rate,
  • 18:29 - 18:32
    an economy will double in only 7 years.
  • 18:33 - 18:37
    If an economy grows at the current average of 3%,
  • 18:37 - 18:40
    it doubles every 23 years.
  • 18:41 - 18:44
    With each doubling, demand for energy and resources
  • 18:44 - 18:47
    will exceed all the previous doublings combined.
  • 18:48 - 18:52
    The financial system is built on the assumption of growth
  • 18:52 - 18:56
    - which requires an increasing supply of energy to support it.
  • 18:57 - 18:58
    Banks lend money they don't have,
  • 18:58 - 19:01
    in effect creating it.
  • 19:01 - 19:05
    The borrowers use the newly created loan money to grow their businesses,
  • 19:05 - 19:06
    and pay back the debt,
  • 19:06 - 19:09
    with an interest payment which requires more growth.
  • 19:10 - 19:13
    Due to this creation of debt formed money,
  • 19:13 - 19:18
    most of the world's money represents a debt with interest to be paid.
  • 19:19 - 19:22
    Without continual new and ever larger generations
  • 19:22 - 19:24
    of borrowers to produce growth,
  • 19:24 - 19:26
    and thus pay off these debts,
  • 19:26 - 19:28
    the world economy will collapse.
  • 19:30 - 19:31
    Like a Ponzi Scheme,
  • 19:31 - 19:34
    the system must expand or die.
  • 19:36 - 19:37
    Partly through this debt system,
  • 19:38 - 19:40
    the effects of economic growth have been spectacular:
  • 19:41 - 19:42
    in GDP,
  • 19:42 - 19:43
    damming of rivers,
  • 19:43 - 19:44
    water use,
  • 19:44 - 19:46
    fertiliser consumption,
  • 19:46 - 19:48
    urban population,
  • 19:48 - 19:50
    paper consumption,
  • 19:50 - 19:51
    motor vehicles,
  • 19:51 - 19:52
    communications
  • 19:52 - 19:54
    and tourism.
  • 19:55 - 19:57
    World population has grown to 7 billion,
  • 19:57 - 20:01
    and is expected to exceed 9 billion by 2050.
  • 20:02 - 20:06
    On a flat, infinite earth, this would not be a problem.
  • 20:06 - 20:09
    However, as the Earth is round and finite,
  • 20:09 - 20:12
    we will eventually face limits to growth.
  • 20:13 - 20:14
    Economic expansion
  • 20:14 - 20:18
    has resulted in increases in atmospheric nitrous oxide
  • 20:18 - 20:19
    and methane,
  • 20:19 - 20:21
    ozone depletion,
  • 20:21 - 20:23
    increases in great floods,
  • 20:23 - 20:26
    damage to ocean ecosystems,
  • 20:26 - 20:28
    including nitrogen runoff,
  • 20:28 - 20:31
    loss of rainforest and woodland,
  • 20:31 - 20:33
    increases in domesticated land,
  • 20:33 - 20:36
    and species exinctions.
  • 20:38 - 20:40
    If we place a single grain of rice
  • 20:40 - 20:42
    on the first square of a chessboard,
  • 20:42 - 20:45
    double this and place 2 grains on the second,
  • 20:46 - 20:49
    double again and place 4 on the third,
  • 20:49 - 20:51
    double again and place 8 on the fourth,
  • 20:52 - 20:53
    and continue this way,
  • 20:53 - 20:55
    putting on each square twice the number of grains
  • 20:55 - 20:57
    than were on the previous one,
  • 20:57 - 20:59
    by the time we reach the final square,
  • 20:59 - 21:01
    we need an astronomical number of grains:
  • 21:04 - 21:05
    9 quintillion,
  • 21:05 - 21:07
    223 quadrillion,
  • 21:07 - 21:09
    372 trillion,
  • 21:09 - 21:11
    36 billion,
  • 21:11 - 21:13
    854 million,
  • 21:13 - 21:17
    776 thousand grains:
  • 21:17 - 21:19
    more grain than the human race
  • 21:19 - 21:22
    has grown in the last 10,000 years.
  • 21:23 - 21:24
    Modern economies,
  • 21:24 - 21:25
    like the grains on the chess board,
  • 21:25 - 21:27
    doubles every few decades.
  • 21:28 - 21:31
    On which square of the chessboard are we?
  • 21:33 - 21:35
    Besides energy,
  • 21:35 - 21:38
    civilisation demands numerous essential resources:
  • 21:38 - 21:39
    fresh water,
  • 21:39 - 21:40
    topsoil,
  • 21:40 - 21:41
    food,
  • 21:41 - 21:42
    forests,
  • 21:42 - 21:44
    and many kinds of minerals and metals.
  • 21:45 - 21:46
    Growth is limited
  • 21:46 - 21:49
    by the essential resource in scarcest supply.
  • 21:51 - 21:52
    A barrel is made of staves,
  • 21:52 - 21:55
    and like water filling a barrel,
  • 21:55 - 21:58
    growth can go no further than the lowest stave,
  • 21:58 - 22:01
    or the most limited essential resource.
  • 22:02 - 22:04
    Humans currently utilise
  • 22:04 - 22:07
    40% of all photosynthesis n Earth.
  • 22:08 - 22:10
    Though it might be possible to use 80%,
  • 22:10 - 22:14
    we are unlikely to ever use 160%.
  • 22:23 - 22:26
    FOOD
  • 22:27 - 22:28
    The global food supply
  • 22:28 - 22:30
    relies heavily on fossil fuels.
  • 22:32 - 22:33
    Before WW1,
  • 22:33 - 22:35
    all agriculture was Organic.
  • 22:36 - 22:40
    Following the invention of fossil fuel derived fertilisers and pesticides
  • 22:40 - 22:42
    there were massive improvements in food production,
  • 22:43 - 22:45
    allowing for increases in human population.
  • 22:48 - 22:49
    The use of artificial fertilisers
  • 22:49 - 22:52
    has fed far more people than would have been possible
  • 22:52 - 22:55
    with organic agriculture alone.
  • 22:56 - 22:58
    Fossil fuels are needed for farming equipment,
  • 22:58 - 23:00
    transportation,
  • 23:00 - 23:01
    refrigeration,
  • 23:01 - 23:03
    packaging - in plastic,
  • 23:03 - 23:05
    and cooking.
  • 23:05 - 23:09
    Modern agriculture uses land to turn fossil fuels into food
  • 23:09 - 23:11
    - and food into people.
  • 23:12 - 23:14
    About 7 calories of fossil-fuel energy
  • 23:14 - 23:17
    are used to produce 1 calorie of food.
  • 23:19 - 23:25
    In America, food travels approximately 1,500 miles from farm to customer.
  • 23:30 - 23:32
    Besides fossil fuel decline,
  • 23:32 - 23:35
    there are several threats to the current system of food production:
  • 23:35 - 23:36
    Cheap energy,
  • 23:36 - 23:38
    improved technology
  • 23:38 - 23:41
    and subsidies have allowed massive fish catches.
  • 23:43 - 23:46
    Global fish catches peaked in the late nineteen eighties,
  • 23:46 - 23:49
    forcing fishermen to move into deep waters.
  • 23:53 - 23:56
    Nitrogen run off by fossil fuel based fertilisers
  • 23:56 - 24:00
    poisons rivers and seas, creating enormous dead zones.
  • 24:00 - 24:01
    At this rate,
  • 24:01 - 24:04
    all fish populations are projected to collapse
  • 24:04 - 24:06
    by 2048.
  • 24:07 - 24:11
    Acid rain from cities and industries leeches the soil of vital nutrients,
  • 24:11 - 24:12
    such as potassium,
  • 24:12 - 24:13
    calcium,
  • 24:13 - 24:14
    and magnesium.
  • 24:18 - 24:20
    Another threat is a lack of water.
  • 24:20 - 24:25
    Many farms use water pumped from underground aquifers for irrigation.
  • 24:26 - 24:29
    The aquifers need thousands of years to fill up,
  • 24:29 - 24:31
    but can be pumped dry in a few decades,
  • 24:31 - 24:33
    like oil wells.
  • 24:34 - 24:37
    America's massive Ogallala aquifer has fallen so low
  • 24:37 - 24:41
    that many farmers have had to return to less productive dry-land farming.
  • 24:42 - 24:47
    Additionally, The use of irrigation and fertilisers can lead to salinisation:
  • 24:47 - 24:49
    the accumulation of salt in the soil.
  • 24:49 - 24:52
    This is a major cause of desertification.
  • 24:53 - 24:56
    Still another threat is topsoil loss.
  • 24:56 - 24:58
    200 years ago,
  • 24:58 - 25:01
    there were 6 feet of topsoil on the American prairies.
  • 25:01 - 25:03
    Today, through tillage and poor practices,
  • 25:03 - 25:06
    approximately half is gone.
  • 25:09 - 25:13
    Irrigation encourages the growth of stem rust fungi like UG-99
  • 25:13 - 25:18
    - which has the potential to destroy 80% of the world's grain harvest.
  • 25:19 - 25:20
    According to Norman Borlaug,
  • 25:20 - 25:22
    father of the Green Revolution,
  • 25:22 - 25:28
    stem rust "has immense potential for social and human destruction."
  • 25:29 - 25:32
    The use of biofuels means that less land
  • 25:32 - 25:35
    will be available for food production.
  • 25:37 - 25:39
    An area has a finite carrying capacity.
  • 25:40 - 25:42
    This is the number of animals or people
  • 25:42 - 25:44
    that can live there indefinitely.
  • 25:44 - 25:47
    If a species overshoots the carrying capacity of that area,
  • 25:47 - 25:52
    it will die back until the population returns to its natural limits.
  • 25:53 - 25:54
    The world has avoided this die-off
  • 25:54 - 25:56
    by finding new lands to cultivate,
  • 25:56 - 25:58
    or by increasing production,
  • 25:58 - 26:01
    which has been possible largely thanks to oil.
  • 26:01 - 26:04
    To continue growth,
  • 26:04 - 26:07
    more resources are required than the Earth can provide,
  • 26:07 - 26:10
    but no new planets are available.
  • 26:11 - 26:13
    In the face of all these challenges,
  • 26:13 - 26:16
    global food production must double by 2050
  • 26:16 - 26:19
    to feed the growing world population.
  • 26:21 - 26:24
    1 billion people are already malnourished or starving.
  • 26:24 - 26:28
    There will be challenges in feeding over 9 billion in the years to come,
  • 26:28 - 26:32
    when world oil and natural gas production will be in decline.
  • 26:41 - 26:43
    HAPPY ENDING
  • 26:46 - 26:48
    The global economy grows exponentially,
  • 26:48 - 26:50
    at about 3% a year,
  • 26:50 - 26:53
    consuming increasing amounts of non-renewable fuels,
  • 26:53 - 26:55
    minerals and metals,
  • 26:55 - 26:57
    as well as renewable resources
  • 26:57 - 27:00
    like water, forests, soils and fish
  • 27:00 - 27:02
    faster than they can be replenished.
  • 27:04 - 27:06
    Even at a growth rate of 1%,
  • 27:06 - 27:08
    an economy will double in 70 years.
  • 27:10 - 27:13
    The problem is intensified by other factors:
  • 27:13 - 27:16
    Globalisation allows people on one continent
  • 27:16 - 27:18
    to buy goods and food made by those on another.
  • 27:19 - 27:21
    The lines of supply are long,
  • 27:21 - 27:24
    placing strains on a limited oil resource.
  • 27:26 - 27:29
    We now rely on distant countries for basic necessities.
  • 27:31 - 27:33
    Modern cities are fossil fuel dependent.
  • 27:34 - 27:37
    Most Banking Systems are based on debt,
  • 27:37 - 27:40
    forcing people into a spiral of loans and repayments
  • 27:40 - 27:42
    - producing growth.
  • 27:43 - 27:46
    What can be done in the face of these problems?
  • 27:47 - 27:49
    Many believe that the crisis can be prevented
  • 27:49 - 27:50
    through conservation,
  • 27:50 - 27:51
    technology,
  • 27:51 - 27:53
    smart growth,
  • 27:53 - 27:54
    recycling,
  • 27:54 - 27:55
    electric cars and hybrids,
  • 27:55 - 27:57
    substitution,
  • 27:57 - 27:58
    or voting.
  • 28:00 - 28:01
    Conservation will save you money,
  • 28:01 - 28:04
    but it alone won't save the planet.
  • 28:05 - 28:07
    If some people cut back on oil use,
  • 28:07 - 28:10
    the reduced demand will drive down the price,
  • 28:10 - 28:12
    allowing others to buy it for less.
  • 28:13 - 28:14
    In the same fashion,
  • 28:14 - 28:17
    a more efficient engine that uses less energy will,
  • 28:17 - 28:21
    paradoxically, lead to greater energy use.
  • 28:22 - 28:23
    In the 19th century,
  • 28:23 - 28:26
    English economist William Stanley Jevons
  • 28:26 - 28:28
    realised that Better steam engines made coal
  • 28:28 - 28:31
    a more cost effective fuel source,
  • 28:31 - 28:33
    which led to the use of more steam engines,
  • 28:33 - 28:36
    which increased total coal consumption.
  • 28:37 - 28:40
    Growth of use will consume any energy or resources
  • 28:40 - 28:42
    saved through conservation.
  • 28:48 - 28:49
    Many believe that scientists
  • 28:49 - 28:52
    will solve these problems with new technology.
  • 28:52 - 28:55
    However, technology is not energy.
  • 28:56 - 28:58
    Technology can channel energy into work,
  • 28:58 - 29:00
    but it can't replace it.
  • 29:00 - 29:02
    It also consumes resources:
  • 29:02 - 29:03
    for instance;
  • 29:03 - 29:05
    computers are made with one tenth
  • 29:05 - 29:08
    of the energy needed to make a car.
  • 29:09 - 29:10
    More advanced technologies
  • 29:10 - 29:12
    may make the situation worse,
  • 29:12 - 29:14
    as many require rare minerals,
  • 29:14 - 29:16
    which are also approaching limits.
  • 29:17 - 29:18
    For example,
  • 29:18 - 29:22
    97% of the world's Rare Earths are produced by China,
  • 29:22 - 29:25
    most from a single mine in inner Mongolia.
  • 29:26 - 29:29
    These minerals are used in catalytic converters,
  • 29:29 - 29:31
    aircraft engines,
  • 29:31 - 29:33
    high efficiency magnets and hard drives,
  • 29:33 - 29:35
    hybrid car batteries,
  • 29:35 - 29:36
    lasers,
  • 29:36 - 29:38
    portable X-Rays,
  • 29:38 - 29:40
    shielding for nuclear reactors,
  • 29:40 - 29:42
    compact discs,
  • 29:42 - 29:44
    hybrid vehicle motors,
  • 29:44 - 29:45
    low energy light-bulbs,
  • 29:45 - 29:47
    fibre optics
  • 29:47 - 29:48
    and flat-screen displays.
  • 29:49 - 29:53
    China has begun to consider restricting the export of these minerals,
  • 29:53 - 29:54
    as demand soars.
  • 29:57 - 30:01
    So called sustainable growth or smart growth won't help,
  • 30:01 - 30:04
    as it also uses non renewable metals and minerals
  • 30:04 - 30:05
    in ever increasing quantities,
  • 30:05 - 30:08
    including Rare Earths.
  • 30:09 - 30:10
    Recycling will not solve the problem,
  • 30:11 - 30:12
    as it requires energy,
  • 30:12 - 30:14
    and the process is not 100% efficient.
  • 30:16 - 30:20
    It is only possible to reclaim a fraction of the material being recycled;
  • 30:20 - 30:23
    a large portion is lost forever as waste.
  • 30:25 - 30:28
    Electric cars run on electricity.
  • 30:28 - 30:31
    As most power is generated from fossil fuels,
  • 30:31 - 30:33
    this is not a solution.
  • 30:33 - 30:37
    Also, cars of all types consume oil in their production.
  • 30:37 - 30:41
    Each tire alone requires about 7 gallons of Petroleum.
  • 30:43 - 30:47
    There are around 800 million cars in the world, as of 2010.
  • 30:47 - 30:49
    At current growth rates,
  • 30:49 - 30:53
    this number would reach 2 billion by 2025.
  • 30:54 - 30:57
    It is unlikely that the planet can support this many vehicles for long,
  • 30:57 - 31:00
    regardless of their power source.
  • 31:01 - 31:02
    Many economists believe
  • 31:03 - 31:05
    that the free market will substitute one energy source
  • 31:05 - 31:07
    with another through technological innovation.
  • 31:08 - 31:10
    However, the main substitutes to oil
  • 31:10 - 31:12
    face their own decline rates.
  • 31:14 - 31:19
    Substitution also fails to account for the time needed to prepare for a transition.
  • 31:20 - 31:22
    The U.S. Department of Energy's Hirsch report
  • 31:22 - 31:25
    estimates that at least 2 decades would be needed to prepare
  • 31:25 - 31:28
    for the effects of Peak Oil.
  • 31:29 - 31:31
    The issues of energy shortages,
  • 31:31 - 31:33
    resource depletion,
  • 31:33 - 31:35
    topsoil loss,
  • 31:35 - 31:39
    and pollution are all symptoms of a single, larger problem:
  • 31:40 - 31:42
    Growth.
  • 31:44 - 31:46
    As long as our financial system demands endless growth,
  • 31:46 - 31:49
    reform is unlikely to succeed.
  • 31:50 - 31:53
    What then, will the future look like?
  • 31:54 - 31:56
    Optimists believe that growth will continue forever,
  • 31:56 - 31:58
    without limits.
  • 31:59 - 32:02
    Pessimists think that we're heading towards a new Stone Age,
  • 32:02 - 32:04
    or extinction.
  • 32:05 - 32:06
    The truth may lie between these extremes.
  • 32:07 - 32:12
    It is possible that society might fall back to a simpler state,
  • 32:12 - 32:15
    one in which energy use is a lot less.
  • 32:16 - 32:18
    This would mean a harder life for most.
  • 32:18 - 32:19
    More manual labour,
  • 32:19 - 32:20
    more farm work,
  • 32:20 - 32:24
    and local production of goods, food and services.
  • 32:25 - 32:28
    What should a person do to prepare for such a possible future?
  • 32:29 - 32:33
    Expect a decrease in supplies of food and goods from far away places.
  • 32:34 - 32:36
    Start walking or cycling.
  • 32:36 - 32:39
    Get used to using less electricity.
  • 32:40 - 32:41
    Get out of debt.
  • 32:42 - 32:43
    Try to avoid banks.
  • 32:43 - 32:45
    Instead of shopping at big box stores,
  • 32:45 - 32:48
    support local businesses.
  • 32:48 - 32:52
    Buy food grown locally, at Farmers' Markets.
  • 32:52 - 32:55
    Instead of a lawn, consider gardening to grow your own food.
  • 32:55 - 32:57
    Learn how to preserve it.
  • 32:58 - 33:00
    Consider the use of local currencies
  • 33:00 - 33:02
    should the larger economy cease to function,
  • 33:02 - 33:06
    and develop greater self sufficiency.
  • 33:07 - 33:08
    None of these steps will prevent Collapse,
  • 33:08 - 33:12
    but they might improve your chances in a low energy future,
  • 33:13 - 33:15
    one in which we will have to be more self reliant,
  • 33:15 - 33:18
    as our ancestors once were.
Título:
There's No Tomorrow (2012)
Descripción:

The first production by http://www.incubatepictures.com:
A 34 minute animated documentary about resource depletion and the impossibility of infinite growth on a finite planet.

more » « less
Video Language:
English
Duration:
34:53

Subtítulos en English

Revisiones Compare revisions