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Incubate Pictures presents

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In association with Post Carbon Institute

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There's No Tomorrow

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This is the Earth,

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as it looked 90 million years ago.

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Geologists call this period the 'Late Cretaceous'.

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It was a time of extreme global warming,

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When dinosaurs still ruled the planet.

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They went about their lives,

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secure in their place at the top of the food chain,

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oblivious of the changes taking place around them.

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The continents were drifting apart,

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opening huge rifts in the Earth's crust.

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They flooded, becoming seas.

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Algae thrived in the extreme heat,

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poisoning the water.

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They died,

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and fell, in their trillions, to the bottom of the rifts.

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Rivers washed sediment into the seas,

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until the organic remains of the algae were buried.

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As the pressure grew, so did the heat,

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until a chemical reaction transformed the organics

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into hydrocarbon fossil fuels:

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Oil and Natural Gas.

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A similar process occurred on land,

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which produced coal.

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It took nature about 5 million years

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to create the fossil fuels that the world consumes in 1 year.

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The modern way of life

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is dependent on this fossilised sunlight,

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although a surprising number of people take it for granted.

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Since 1860, geologists have discovered over 2 trillion barrels of oil.

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Since then, the world has used approximately half.

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Before you can pump oil, you have to discover it.

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At first it was easy to find, and cheap to extract.

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The first great American oilfield was Spindletop, .

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discovered in 1900

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Many more followed.

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Geologists scoured America.

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They found enormous deposits of oil, natural gas and coal.

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America produced more oil than any other country,

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enabling it to become an industrial super-power.

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Once an oil well starts producing oil,

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it's only a matter of time before it enters a decline.

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Individual wells have different production rates.

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When many wells are averaged together,

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the combined graph looks like a bell curve.

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Typically

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it takes 40 years after the peak of discovery

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for a country to reach its peak of production,

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after which it enters a permanent fall.

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In the 1950s,

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Shell geophysicist M. King Hubbert

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predicted that America's oil production would peak in 1970,

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40 years after the peak of U.S. oil discovery.

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Few believed him.

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However, in 1970,

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American oil production peaked,

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and entered a permanent decline.

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Hubbert was vindicated.

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From this point on,

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America would depend increasingly on imported oil.

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This made her vulnerable to supply disruptions,

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and contributed to the economic mayhem of the 1973

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and 1979 oil shocks.

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The 1930s saw the highest rate of oil discoveries in U.S. history.

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In spite of advanced technology,

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the decline in the discovery of new american oilfields has been relentless.

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More recent finds, such as ANWAR,

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would at best provide enough oil for 17 months.

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Even the new "Jack 2" field in the gulf of Mexico

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would only supply a few months of domestic demand.

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Though large, neither field comes close to satisfying

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America's energy requirements.

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Evidence is now mounting

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that world oil production is peaking, or is close to it.

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Globally, the rate of discovery of new oilfields peaked in the 1960s.

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Over 40 years later,

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the decline in the discovery of new fields

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seems unstoppable.

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54 of the 65 major oil producing nations

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have already peaked in production.

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Many of the others are expected to follow in the near future.

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The world will need to bring the equivalent

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of a new Saudi Arabia into production

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every three years

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to make up for declining output in existing oilfields.

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In the nineteen sixties,

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six barrels of oil were found for every one that was used.

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Four decades later,

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the world consumes between three and six barrels of oil

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for every one that it finds.

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Once the peak of world oil production is reached,

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demand for oil will outstrip supply,

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and the price of gasoline will fluctuate wildly,

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affecting far more than the cost of filling a car.

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Modern cities are fossil fuel dependent.

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Even roads are made from asphalt,

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a petroleum product,

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as are the roofs of many homes.

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Large areas would be uninhabitable

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without heating in the winter or air conditioning in the summer.

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Suburban sprawl encourages people to drive many miles

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to work, school and stores.

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Major cities have been zoned with residential

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and commercial areas placed far apart,

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forcing people to drive.

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Suburbia, and many communities

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were designed on the assumption of plentiful oil and energy.

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Chemicals derived from fossil fuels,

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or Petro-chemicals,

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are essential in the manufacture of countless products.

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The modern system of agriculture

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is heavily dependent on fossil fuels,

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as are hospitals,

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aviation,

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water distribution systems,

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and the U.S. military,

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which alone uses about 140 million barrels of oil a year.

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Fossil fuels are also essential for the creation of plastics and polymers,

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key ingredients in computers, entertainment devices and clothing.

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The global economy currently depends on endless growth,

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demanding an increasing supply of cheap energy.

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We are so dependant on oil and other fossil fuels,

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that even a small disruption in supply

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may have far-reaching effects on every aspect of our lives.

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ENERGY

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Energy is the ability to do work.

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The average American today has available the energy equivalent of 150 slaves, working 24 hours a day.

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Materials that store this energy for work are called fuels,

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Some fuels contain more energy than others.

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This is called energy density.

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Of these fuels, oil is the most critical.

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The world consumes 30 billion barrels a year,

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equal to 1 cubic mile of oil,

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which contains as much energy

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as would be generated from 52 nuclear power plants

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working for the next 50 years.

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Although oil only generates 1.6% of U.S. electricity,

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it powers 96% of all transportation.

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In 2008, two thirds of America's oil was imported.

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Most was from Canada,

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Mexico,

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Saudi Arabia,

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Venezuela,

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Nigeria, Iraq and Angola.

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Several factors make oil unique:

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it is energy dense.

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One barrel of oil contains the energy equivalent

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of almost three years of human labour.

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It is liquid at room temperature,

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easy to transport

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and usable in small engines.

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To acquire energy, you have to use energy.

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The trick is to use smaller amounts to find and extract larger amounts.

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This is called EROEI:

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Energy Return on Energy Invested.

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Conventional oil is a good example.

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The easy to extract, high-quality crude was pumped first.

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Oilmen spent the energy equivalent of 1 barrel of oil to find and extract 100.

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The EROEI of oil was 100.

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As the easy to find oil was pumped first,

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exploration moved into deep waters,

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or distant countries,

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using increasing amounts of energy to do so.

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Often, the oil we find now is heavy or sour crude,

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and is expensive to refine.

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The EROEI for oil today is as low as 10.

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If you use more energy to get the fuel than is contained in the fuel,

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it's not worth the effort to get it.

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It is possible to convert one fuel source into another.

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Every time you do so,

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some of the energy contained in the original fuel is lost.

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For instance, there is unconventional oil:

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Tar Sands and Shale.

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Tar Sands are found mainly in Canada.

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Two thirds of the world's shale is in the US.

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Both of these fuels can be converted to synthetic crude oil.

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However, this requires large amounts of heat and fresh water,

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reducing their EROEI,

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which varies from five, to as low as one and a half.

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Shale is an exceptionally poor fuel,

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pound for pound containing about one third the energy

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of a box of breakfast cereal.

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Coal exists in vast quantities,

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and generates almost half of the planet's electricity.

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The world uses almost 2 cubic miles of coal a year.

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However, Global coal production may peak before 2040.

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The claim that America has centuries worth of coal is deceptive,

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as it fails to account for growing demand, and decreasing quality.

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Much of the high quality anthracite coal is gone,

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leaving lower quality coal that is less energy dense.

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Production issues arise, as surface coal is depleted,

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and miners have to dig deeper and in less accessible areas.

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Many use destructive mountaintop removal to reach coal deposits,

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causing environmental mayhem.

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Natural gas is often found alongside oil and coal.

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North American discovery of conventional gas peaked in the 1950s,

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and production peaked in the early 70s.

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If the discovery graph is moved forward by 23 years,

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the possible future of North American conventional natural gas production

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is revealed.

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Recent breakthroughs have allowed the extraction of unconventional natural gas,

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such as shale gas, which might help offset decline in the years ahead.

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Unconventional natural gas is controversial,

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as it needs high energy prices to be profitable.

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Even with Unconventional gas,

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there may be a peak in global natural gas production by 2030.

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Large uranium reserves for nuclear fission still exist.

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To replace the 10 terawatts the world currently generates from fossil fuels,

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would require 10,000 nuclear power plants.

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At that rate, the known reserves of uranium would last for only 10 to 20 years.

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Experiments with plutonium based fast-breeder reactors

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in France and Japan

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have been expensive failures.

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Nuclear fusion faces massive technical obstacles.

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Then there are the renewables.

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Windpower has a high EROEI, but is intermittent.

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Hydro power is reliable,

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but most rivers in the developed world are already dammed.

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Conventional geothermal power plants

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use existing hotspots near the Earth's surface.

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They are limited to those areas.

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In the experimental EGS system,

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two shafts would be drilled 6 miles deep.

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Water is pumped down one shaft, to be heated in fissures,

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then rise up the other, generating power.

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According to a recent MIT report,

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this technology might supply 10% of US electricity by 2050.

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Wave power is restricted to coastal areas.

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The energy density of waves varies from region to region.

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Transporting wave-generated electricity inland would be challenging.

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Also, the salty ocean environment is corrosive to turbines.

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Biofuels are fuels that are grown.

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Wood has a low energy density, and grows slowly.

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The world uses 3.7 cubic miles of wood a year.

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Biodiesel and ethanol

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are made from crops grown by petroleum powered agriculture.

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The energy profit from these fuels is very low.

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Some politicians want to turn corn into ethanol.

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Using Ethanol to supply one tenth of projected US oil use in 2020,

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would require 3% of America's Land.

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To supply one third would require 3 times the area now used to grow food.

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To supply all US petroleum consumption in 2020

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would take twice as much land as is used to grow food.

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Hydrogen has to be extracted from Natural Gas, coal or water,

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which uses more energy than we get from the Hydrogen.

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This makes a Hydrogen economy unlikely.

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All the world's photovoltaic solar panels generate as much electricity

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as two coal power plants.

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The equivalent of between 1 and 4 tons of coal

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are used in the manufacture of a single solar panel.

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We'd have to cover as many as 140,000 square miles with panels

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to meet current world demand.

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As of 2007, there are only about 4 square miles.

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Concentrated Solar Power, or Solar Thermal has great potential,

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though at the moment there are only a small number of plants operating.

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They are also limited to sunny climates,

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requiring large amounts of electricity

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to be transmitted over long distances.

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All of the alternatives to oil depend on oil-powered machinery,

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or require materials such as plastics that are produced from oil.

263
00:15:36,037 --> 00:15:38,890
When considering future claims of amazing new fuels or inventions,

264
00:15:38,900 --> 00:15:40,042
ask:

265
00:15:40,087 --> 00:15:44,200
Does the advocate have a working, commercial model of the invention?

266
00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:46,875
What is its energy density?

267
00:15:47,500 --> 00:15:49,958
Can it be stored or easily distributed?

268
00:15:51,004 --> 00:15:53,083
Is it reliable or intermittent?

269
00:15:53,083 --> 00:15:56,000
Can it be scaled to a national level?

270
00:15:56,300 --> 00:15:58,800
Are there hidden engineering challenges?

271
00:15:59,800 --> 00:16:02,095
What is the EROEI?

272
00:16:02,095 --> 00:16:04,700
What are the environmental impacts?

273
00:16:04,901 --> 00:16:07,700
Remember that large numbers can be deceptive.

274
00:16:08,044 --> 00:16:09,900
For example: 1 billion barrels of oil

275
00:16:09,901 --> 00:16:13,868
will satisfy global demand for only 12 days.

276
00:16:15,058 --> 00:16:19,000
A transition from fossil fuels would be a monumental challenge.

277
00:16:19,700 --> 00:16:24,417
As of 2007, coal generates 48.5% of U.S. electricity.

278
00:16:24,417 --> 00:16:27,289
21.6% is from natural gas,

279
00:16:27,289 --> 00:16:30,215
1.6% is from petroleum,

280
00:16:30,215 --> 00:16:32,676
19.4% is from nuclear,

281
00:16:32,676 --> 00:16:34,900
5.8% is from hydro.

282
00:16:35,087 --> 00:16:39,000
Other renewables only generate 2.5%.

283
00:16:40,037 --> 00:16:43,125
Is it possible to replace a system based on fossil fuels

284
00:16:43,125 --> 00:16:45,700
with a patchwork of alternatives?

285
00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:48,700
Major technological advances are needed,

286
00:16:48,900 --> 00:16:51,500
as well as political will and co-operation,

287
00:16:51,900 --> 00:16:53,400
massive investment,

288
00:16:53,542 --> 00:16:55,500
international consensus,

289
00:16:56,050 --> 00:16:59,300
the retrofitting of the $45 trillion global economy,

290
00:16:59,301 --> 00:17:01,668
including transportation,

291
00:17:02,027 --> 00:17:03,000
manufacturing industries,

292
00:17:03,001 --> 00:17:05,083
and agricultural systems,

293
00:17:05,083 --> 00:17:08,700
as well as officials competent to manage the transition.

294
00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:11,523
If all these are achieved,

295
00:17:11,523 --> 00:17:14,523
could the current way of life continue?

296
00:17:19,004 --> 00:17:21,009
Growth

297
00:17:21,009 --> 00:17:23,300
These bacteria live in a bottle.

298
00:17:24,008 --> 00:17:25,800
Their population doubles every minute.

299
00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:29,300
At 11AM there is one bacterium.

300
00:17:30,087 --> 00:17:32,100
At 12 noon the bottle is full.

301
00:17:33,081 --> 00:17:35,295
It is half-full at 11.59

302
00:17:35,295 --> 00:17:37,985
leaving only enough space for one more doubling.

303
00:17:38,900 --> 00:17:41,033
The bacteria see the danger.

304
00:17:41,033 --> 00:17:44,056
They search for new bottles, and find 3.

305
00:17:44,056 --> 00:17:47,083
They assume that their problem is solved.

306
00:17:47,083 --> 00:17:49,600
By 12 noon, the first bottle is full.

307
00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:53,136
By 12.01, the second bottle is full.

308
00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:56,820
By 12.02, all the bottles are full.

309
00:17:57,900 --> 00:17:59,928
This is the problem that we face,

310
00:17:59,928 --> 00:18:03,200
due to the doubling caused by Exponential Growth.

311
00:18:06,061 --> 00:18:09,280
When humanity began to use coal and oil as fuel sources,

312
00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:12,700
it experienced unprecedented growth.

313
00:18:14,029 --> 00:18:17,326
Even low growth rates produce large increases over time.

314
00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:20,100
At a 1% growth rate,

315
00:18:20,150 --> 00:18:22,900
an economy will double in 70 years.

316
00:18:23,500 --> 00:18:27,087
A 2% rate doubles in 35 years.

317
00:18:27,087 --> 00:18:29,264
At a 10% growth rate,

318
00:18:29,264 --> 00:18:32,350
an economy will double in only 7 years.

319
00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:36,750
If an economy grows at the current average of 3%,

320
00:18:36,750 --> 00:18:39,750
it doubles every 23 years.

321
00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:44,023
With each doubling, demand for energy and resources

322
00:18:44,023 --> 00:18:47,023
will exceed all the previous doublings combined.

323
00:18:48,079 --> 00:18:52,050
The financial system is built on the assumption of growth

324
00:18:52,050 --> 00:18:55,778
- which requires an increasing supply of energy to support it.

325
00:18:56,700 --> 00:18:58,469
Banks lend money they don't have,

326
00:18:58,469 --> 00:19:00,600
in effect creating it.

327
00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:04,816
The borrowers use the newly created loan money to grow their businesses,

328
00:19:04,816 --> 00:19:06,200
and pay back the debt,

329
00:19:06,204 --> 00:19:09,384
with an interest payment which requires more growth.

330
00:19:10,500 --> 00:19:13,019
Due to this creation of debt formed money,

331
00:19:13,019 --> 00:19:17,616
most of the world's money represents a debt with interest to be paid.

332
00:19:19,056 --> 00:19:22,100
Without continual new and ever larger generations

333
00:19:22,101 --> 00:19:24,200
of borrowers to produce growth,

334
00:19:24,500 --> 00:19:25,871
and thus pay off these debts,

335
00:19:25,871 --> 00:19:28,300
the world economy will collapse.

336
00:19:30,010 --> 00:19:31,148
Like a Ponzi Scheme,

337
00:19:31,148 --> 00:19:34,148
the system must expand or die.

338
00:19:35,500 --> 00:19:37,450
Partly through this debt system,

339
00:19:37,500 --> 00:19:40,400
the effects of economic growth have been spectacular:

340
00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:41,600
in GDP,

341
00:19:41,601 --> 00:19:43,112
damming of rivers,

342
00:19:43,112 --> 00:19:44,150
water use,

343
00:19:44,183 --> 00:19:46,456
fertiliser consumption,

344
00:19:46,456 --> 00:19:47,762
urban population,

345
00:19:47,762 --> 00:19:49,669
paper consumption,

346
00:19:49,669 --> 00:19:51,105
motor vehicles,

347
00:19:51,105 --> 00:19:52,411
communications

348
00:19:52,411 --> 00:19:54,100
and tourism.

349
00:19:55,068 --> 00:19:57,453
World population has grown to 7 billion,

350
00:19:57,453 --> 00:20:01,189
and is expected to exceed 9 billion by 2050.

351
00:20:02,041 --> 00:20:05,500
On a flat, infinite earth, this would not be a problem.

352
00:20:06,300 --> 00:20:08,686
However, as the Earth is round and finite,

353
00:20:08,686 --> 00:20:11,686
we will eventually face limits to growth.

354
00:20:13,084 --> 00:20:14,302
Economic expansion

355
00:20:14,302 --> 00:20:18,300
has resulted in increases in atmospheric nitrous oxide

356
00:20:18,301 --> 00:20:19,100
and methane,

357
00:20:19,101 --> 00:20:20,702
ozone depletion,

358
00:20:20,870 --> 00:20:22,833
increases in great floods,

359
00:20:22,833 --> 00:20:25,833
damage to ocean ecosystems,

360
00:20:25,874 --> 00:20:27,703
including nitrogen runoff,

361
00:20:27,703 --> 00:20:30,759
loss of rainforest and woodland,

362
00:20:30,759 --> 00:20:33,110
increases in domesticated land,

363
00:20:33,110 --> 00:20:36,110
and species exinctions.

364
00:20:38,052 --> 00:20:40,200
If we place a single grain of rice

365
00:20:40,201 --> 00:20:42,070
on the first square of a chessboard,

366
00:20:42,070 --> 00:20:45,200
double this and place 2 grains on the second,

367
00:20:46,014 --> 00:20:48,600
double again and place 4 on the third,

368
00:20:49,100 --> 00:20:51,470
double again and place 8 on the fourth,

369
00:20:51,500 --> 00:20:52,650
and continue this way,

370
00:20:52,650 --> 00:20:55,471
putting on each square twice the number of grains

371
00:20:55,471 --> 00:20:57,100
than were on the previous one,

372
00:20:57,101 --> 00:20:59,001
by the time we reach the final square,

373
00:20:59,002 --> 00:21:01,244
we need an astronomical number of grains:

374
00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:05,215
9 quintillion,

375
00:21:05,215 --> 00:21:07,435
223 quadrillion,

376
00:21:07,435 --> 00:21:09,290
372 trillion,

377
00:21:09,290 --> 00:21:11,275
36 billion,

378
00:21:11,275 --> 00:21:13,051
854 million,

379
00:21:13,051 --> 00:21:16,552
776 thousand grains:

380
00:21:17,044 --> 00:21:18,563
more grain than the human race

381
00:21:18,563 --> 00:21:21,563
has grown in the last 10,000 years.

382
00:21:22,900 --> 00:21:23,709
Modern economies,

383
00:21:23,709 --> 00:21:25,407
like the grains on the chess board,

384
00:21:25,407 --> 00:21:27,300
doubles every few decades.

385
00:21:27,700 --> 00:21:30,600
On which square of the chessboard are we?

386
00:21:33,087 --> 00:21:34,759
Besides energy,

387
00:21:34,759 --> 00:21:37,659
civilisation demands numerous essential resources:

388
00:21:37,950 --> 00:21:39,252
fresh water,

389
00:21:39,252 --> 00:21:40,480
topsoil,

390
00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:41,316
food,

391
00:21:41,316 --> 00:21:42,126
forests,

392
00:21:42,126 --> 00:21:44,500
and many kinds of minerals and metals.

393
00:21:45,087 --> 00:21:46,150
Growth is limited

394
00:21:46,151 --> 00:21:49,208
by the essential resource in scarcest supply.

395
00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:52,313
A barrel is made of staves,

396
00:21:52,313 --> 00:21:54,978
and like water filling a barrel,

397
00:21:54,978 --> 00:21:57,792
growth can go no further than the lowest stave,

398
00:21:57,792 --> 00:22:00,900
or the most limited essential resource.

399
00:22:02,300 --> 00:22:03,833
Humans currently utilise

400
00:22:03,833 --> 00:22:07,300
40% of all photosynthesis n Earth.

401
00:22:08,021 --> 00:22:09,737
Though it might be possible to use 80%,

402
00:22:09,737 --> 00:22:13,500
we are unlikely to ever use 160%.

403
00:22:23,242 --> 00:22:25,900
FOOD

404
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:28,180
The global food supply

405
00:22:28,180 --> 00:22:29,900
relies heavily on fossil fuels.

406
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:33,143
Before WW1,

407
00:22:33,143 --> 00:22:35,468
all agriculture was Organic.

408
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:39,804
Following the invention of fossil fuel derived fertilisers and pesticides

409
00:22:39,804 --> 00:22:42,500
there were massive improvements in food production,

410
00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:45,300
allowing for increases in human population.

411
00:22:48,095 --> 00:22:49,391
The use of artificial fertilisers

412
00:22:49,391 --> 00:22:51,600
has fed far more people than would have been possible

413
00:22:51,601 --> 00:22:54,875
with organic agriculture alone.

414
00:22:56,050 --> 00:22:58,351
Fossil fuels are needed for farming equipment,

415
00:22:58,351 --> 00:22:59,814
transportation,

416
00:22:59,750 --> 00:23:00,708
refrigeration,

417
00:23:01,068 --> 00:23:02,557
packaging - in plastic,

418
00:23:02,557 --> 00:23:04,673
and cooking.

419
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:08,878
Modern agriculture uses land to turn fossil fuels into food

420
00:23:08,878 --> 00:23:10,600
- and food into people.

421
00:23:12,004 --> 00:23:13,920
About 7 calories of fossil-fuel energy

422
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,920
are used to produce 1 calorie of food.

423
00:23:19,300 --> 00:23:25,022
In America, food travels approximately 1,500 miles from farm to customer.

424
00:23:30,083 --> 00:23:31,527
Besides fossil fuel decline,

425
00:23:31,527 --> 00:23:34,896
there are several threats to the current system of food production:

426
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:36,333
Cheap energy,

427
00:23:36,333 --> 00:23:37,927
improved technology

428
00:23:37,927 --> 00:23:41,349
and subsidies have allowed massive fish catches.

429
00:23:43,091 --> 00:23:45,708
Global fish catches peaked in the late nineteen eighties,

430
00:23:45,708 --> 00:23:48,708
forcing fishermen to move into deep waters.

431
00:23:53,083 --> 00:23:55,716
Nitrogen run off by fossil fuel based fertilisers

432
00:23:55,716 --> 00:23:59,500
poisons rivers and seas, creating enormous dead zones.

433
00:24:00,500 --> 00:24:01,306
At this rate,

434
00:24:01,306 --> 00:24:03,971
all fish populations are projected to collapse

435
00:24:03,971 --> 00:24:05,930
by 2048.

436
00:24:07,091 --> 00:24:11,311
Acid rain from cities and industries leeches the soil of vital nutrients,

437
00:24:11,311 --> 00:24:12,356
such as potassium,

438
00:24:12,356 --> 00:24:13,218
calcium,

439
00:24:13,218 --> 00:24:14,500
and magnesium.

440
00:24:18,027 --> 00:24:20,095
Another threat is a lack of water.

441
00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:25,200
Many farms use water pumped from underground aquifers for irrigation.

442
00:24:26,050 --> 00:24:28,891
The aquifers need thousands of years to fill up,

443
00:24:28,891 --> 00:24:30,772
but can be pumped dry in a few decades,

444
00:24:30,772 --> 00:24:32,600
like oil wells.

445
00:24:34,029 --> 00:24:36,911
America's massive Ogallala aquifer has fallen so low

446
00:24:36,911 --> 00:24:40,750
that many farmers have had to return to less productive dry-land farming.

447
00:24:42,056 --> 00:24:46,576
Additionally, The use of irrigation and fertilisers can lead to salinisation:

448
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:48,600
the accumulation of salt in the soil.

449
00:24:49,300 --> 00:24:51,500
This is a major cause of desertification.

450
00:24:53,078 --> 00:24:56,100
Still another threat is topsoil loss.

451
00:24:56,500 --> 00:24:57,652
200 years ago,

452
00:24:57,652 --> 00:25:00,600
there were 6 feet of topsoil on the American prairies.

453
00:25:01,100 --> 00:25:03,333
Today, through tillage and poor practices,

454
00:25:03,333 --> 00:25:06,333
approximately half is gone.

455
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:13,273
Irrigation encourages the growth of stem rust fungi like UG-99

456
00:25:13,273 --> 00:25:17,700
- which has the potential to destroy 80% of the world's grain harvest.

457
00:25:19,010 --> 00:25:20,083
According to Norman Borlaug,

458
00:25:20,083 --> 00:25:22,207
father of the Green Revolution,

459
00:25:22,300 --> 00:25:27,902
stem rust "has immense potential for social and human destruction."

460
00:25:29,079 --> 00:25:32,000
The use of biofuels means that less land

461
00:25:32,001 --> 00:25:35,108
will be available for food production.

462
00:25:37,054 --> 00:25:39,200
An area has a finite carrying capacity.

463
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:41,642
This is the number of animals or people

464
00:25:41,642 --> 00:25:43,800
that can live there indefinitely.

465
00:25:44,083 --> 00:25:47,494
If a species overshoots the carrying capacity of that area,

466
00:25:47,494 --> 00:25:51,700
it will die back until the population returns to its natural limits.

467
00:25:53,029 --> 00:25:54,167
The world has avoided this die-off

468
00:25:54,167 --> 00:25:56,400
by finding new lands to cultivate,

469
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:57,875
or by increasing production,

470
00:25:57,875 --> 00:26:00,980
which has been possible largely thanks to oil.

471
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:03,638
To continue growth,

472
00:26:03,638 --> 00:26:06,900
more resources are required than the Earth can provide,

473
00:26:07,091 --> 00:26:09,900
but no new planets are available.

474
00:26:11,079 --> 00:26:13,251
In the face of all these challenges,

475
00:26:13,300 --> 00:26:16,417
global food production must double by 2050

476
00:26:16,301 --> 00:26:18,900
to feed the growing world population.

477
00:26:21,044 --> 00:26:23,667
1 billion people are already malnourished or starving.

478
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:27,600
There will be challenges in feeding over 9 billion in the years to come,

479
00:26:28,094 --> 00:26:31,900
when world oil and natural gas production will be in decline.

480
00:26:41,054 --> 00:26:42,600
HAPPY ENDING

481
00:26:45,988 --> 00:26:48,100
The global economy grows exponentially,

482
00:26:48,101 --> 00:26:50,000
at about 3% a year,

483
00:26:50,056 --> 00:26:53,270
consuming increasing amounts of non-renewable fuels,

484
00:26:53,270 --> 00:26:54,900
minerals and metals,

485
00:26:54,901 --> 00:26:56,849
as well as renewable resources

486
00:26:56,849 --> 00:27:00,271
like water, forests, soils and fish

487
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:02,335
faster than they can be replenished.

488
00:27:03,900 --> 00:27:05,574
Even at a growth rate of 1%,

489
00:27:05,574 --> 00:27:08,200
an economy will double in 70 years.

490
00:27:10,016 --> 00:27:13,058
The problem is intensified by other factors:

491
00:27:13,058 --> 00:27:15,500
Globalisation allows people on one continent

492
00:27:15,500 --> 00:27:18,500
to buy goods and food made by those on another.

493
00:27:19,095 --> 00:27:20,751
The lines of supply are long,

494
00:27:20,751 --> 00:27:23,751
placing strains on a limited oil resource.

495
00:27:26,057 --> 00:27:29,333
We now rely on distant countries for basic necessities.

496
00:27:30,700 --> 00:27:32,800
Modern cities are fossil fuel dependent.

497
00:27:34,033 --> 00:27:36,600
Most Banking Systems are based on debt,

498
00:27:36,650 --> 00:27:40,029
forcing people into a spiral of loans and repayments

499
00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:41,800
- producing growth.

500
00:27:43,095 --> 00:27:46,200
What can be done in the face of these problems?

501
00:27:47,029 --> 00:27:48,600
Many believe that the crisis can be prevented

502
00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:50,250
through conservation,

503
00:27:50,251 --> 00:27:51,079
technology,

504
00:27:51,079 --> 00:27:52,568
smart growth,

505
00:27:52,568 --> 00:27:53,800
recycling,

506
00:27:53,801 --> 00:27:55,100
electric cars and hybrids,

507
00:27:55,101 --> 00:27:57,061
substitution,

508
00:27:57,061 --> 00:27:58,300
or voting.

509
00:28:00,091 --> 00:28:01,371
Conservation will save you money,

510
00:28:01,371 --> 00:28:03,696
but it alone won't save the planet.

511
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:07,250
If some people cut back on oil use,

512
00:28:07,300 --> 00:28:09,900
the reduced demand will drive down the price,

513
00:28:09,901 --> 00:28:12,167
allowing others to buy it for less.

514
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:13,583
In the same fashion,

515
00:28:13,583 --> 00:28:17,400
a more efficient engine that uses less energy will,

516
00:28:17,401 --> 00:28:20,900
paradoxically, lead to greater energy use.

517
00:28:21,900 --> 00:28:22,896
In the 19th century,

518
00:28:22,896 --> 00:28:25,535
English economist William Stanley Jevons

519
00:28:25,535 --> 00:28:28,100
realised that Better steam engines made coal

520
00:28:28,101 --> 00:28:31,000
a more cost effective fuel source,

521
00:28:31,001 --> 00:28:32,797
which led to the use of more steam engines,

522
00:28:32,797 --> 00:28:35,800
which increased total coal consumption.

523
00:28:37,087 --> 00:28:40,200
Growth of use will consume any energy or resources

524
00:28:40,201 --> 00:28:42,400
saved through conservation.

525
00:28:48,029 --> 00:28:48,708
Many believe that scientists

526
00:28:48,708 --> 00:28:51,990
will solve these problems with new technology.

527
00:28:52,500 --> 00:28:55,105
However, technology is not energy.

528
00:28:56,048 --> 00:28:57,900
Technology can channel energy into work,

529
00:28:57,901 --> 00:28:59,500
but it can't replace it.

530
00:29:00,300 --> 00:29:02,393
It also consumes resources:

531
00:29:02,393 --> 00:29:03,042
for instance;

532
00:29:03,042 --> 00:29:04,750
computers are made with one tenth

533
00:29:04,751 --> 00:29:07,708
of the energy needed to make a car.

534
00:29:08,872 --> 00:29:10,250
More advanced technologies

535
00:29:10,251 --> 00:29:12,150
may make the situation worse,

536
00:29:12,151 --> 00:29:14,436
as many require rare minerals,

537
00:29:14,436 --> 00:29:16,200
which are also approaching limits.

538
00:29:17,058 --> 00:29:17,832
For example,

539
00:29:17,832 --> 00:29:21,724
97% of the world's Rare Earths are produced by China,

540
00:29:21,724 --> 00:29:24,800
most from a single mine in inner Mongolia.

541
00:29:26,500 --> 00:29:28,833
These minerals are used in catalytic converters,

542
00:29:28,833 --> 00:29:30,542
aircraft engines,

543
00:29:30,542 --> 00:29:33,250
high efficiency magnets and hard drives,

544
00:29:33,250 --> 00:29:35,151
hybrid car batteries,

545
00:29:35,151 --> 00:29:36,353
lasers,

546
00:29:36,353 --> 00:29:37,583
portable X-Rays,

547
00:29:37,583 --> 00:29:39,801
shielding for nuclear reactors,

548
00:29:39,801 --> 00:29:41,708
compact discs,

549
00:29:41,708 --> 00:29:43,550
hybrid vehicle motors,

550
00:29:43,551 --> 00:29:45,313
low energy light-bulbs,

551
00:29:45,313 --> 00:29:46,567
fibre optics

552
00:29:46,567 --> 00:29:48,200
and flat-screen displays.

553
00:29:49,083 --> 00:29:52,549
China has begun to consider restricting the export of these minerals,

554
00:29:52,549 --> 00:29:54,300
as demand soars.

555
00:29:57,083 --> 00:30:00,750
So called sustainable growth or smart growth won't help,

556
00:30:00,750 --> 00:30:03,700
as it also uses non renewable metals and minerals

557
00:30:03,701 --> 00:30:05,375
in ever increasing quantities,

558
00:30:05,375 --> 00:30:07,517
including Rare Earths.

559
00:30:08,900 --> 00:30:10,500
Recycling will not solve the problem,

560
00:30:10,501 --> 00:30:11,582
as it requires energy,

561
00:30:11,583 --> 00:30:14,400
and the process is not 100% efficient.

562
00:30:16,010 --> 00:30:19,820
It is only possible to reclaim a fraction of the material being recycled;

563
00:30:19,820 --> 00:30:22,820
a large portion is lost forever as waste.

564
00:30:25,056 --> 00:30:27,600
Electric cars run on electricity.

565
00:30:28,054 --> 00:30:30,557
As most power is generated from fossil fuels,

566
00:30:30,557 --> 00:30:32,600
this is not a solution.

567
00:30:33,095 --> 00:30:37,270
Also, cars of all types consume oil in their production.

568
00:30:37,270 --> 00:30:41,200
Each tire alone requires about 7 gallons of Petroleum.

569
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:47,333
There are around 800 million cars in the world, as of 2010.

570
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:49,042
At current growth rates,

571
00:30:49,042 --> 00:30:52,950
this number would reach 2 billion by 2025.

572
00:30:53,900 --> 00:30:57,200
It is unlikely that the planet can support this many vehicles for long,

573
00:30:57,201 --> 00:30:59,800
regardless of their power source.

574
00:31:01,031 --> 00:31:02,500
Many economists believe

575
00:31:02,687 --> 00:31:05,326
that the free market will substitute one energy source

576
00:31:05,326 --> 00:31:07,400
with another through technological innovation.

577
00:31:08,100 --> 00:31:10,200
However, the main substitutes to oil

578
00:31:10,201 --> 00:31:12,292
face their own decline rates.

579
00:31:13,900 --> 00:31:18,570
Substitution also fails to account for the time needed to prepare for a transition.

580
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:21,833
The U.S. Department of Energy's Hirsch report

581
00:31:21,833 --> 00:31:25,350
estimates that at least 2 decades would be needed to prepare

582
00:31:25,351 --> 00:31:27,900
for the effects of Peak Oil.

583
00:31:28,900 --> 00:31:31,170
The issues of energy shortages,

584
00:31:31,171 --> 00:31:33,068
resource depletion,

585
00:31:33,068 --> 00:31:34,750
topsoil loss,

586
00:31:34,750 --> 00:31:39,180
and pollution are all symptoms of a single, larger problem:

587
00:31:40,500 --> 00:31:42,500
Growth.

588
00:31:43,700 --> 00:31:46,333
As long as our financial system demands endless growth,

589
00:31:46,333 --> 00:31:49,300
reform is unlikely to succeed.

590
00:31:49,927 --> 00:31:52,542
What then, will the future look like?

591
00:31:54,033 --> 00:31:56,375
Optimists believe that growth will continue forever,

592
00:31:56,375 --> 00:31:57,806
without limits.

593
00:31:59,044 --> 00:32:02,125
Pessimists think that we're heading towards a new Stone Age,

594
00:32:02,125 --> 00:32:04,100
or extinction.

595
00:32:05,031 --> 00:32:06,417
The truth may lie between these extremes.

596
00:32:07,417 --> 00:32:11,964
It is possible that society might fall back to a simpler state,

597
00:32:12,100 --> 00:32:14,792
one in which energy use is a lot less.

598
00:32:16,029 --> 00:32:18,095
This would mean a harder life for most.

599
00:32:18,095 --> 00:32:18,708
More manual labour,

600
00:32:18,708 --> 00:32:20,417
more farm work,

601
00:32:20,417 --> 00:32:24,111
and local production of goods, food and services.

602
00:32:25,079 --> 00:32:28,500
What should a person do to prepare for such a possible future?

603
00:32:29,083 --> 00:32:33,292
Expect a decrease in supplies of food and goods from far away places.

604
00:32:34,104 --> 00:32:35,762
Start walking or cycling.

605
00:32:36,500 --> 00:32:39,079
Get used to using less electricity.

606
00:32:40,029 --> 00:32:41,100
Get out of debt.

607
00:32:41,900 --> 00:32:42,893
Try to avoid banks.

608
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:45,300
Instead of shopping at big box stores,

609
00:32:45,301 --> 00:32:48,095
support local businesses.

610
00:32:48,150 --> 00:32:51,600
Buy food grown locally, at Farmers' Markets.

611
00:32:51,601 --> 00:32:55,417
Instead of a lawn, consider gardening to grow your own food.

612
00:32:55,450 --> 00:32:57,100
Learn how to preserve it.

613
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:00,000
Consider the use of local currencies

614
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:02,500
should the larger economy cease to function,

615
00:33:02,500 --> 00:33:05,500
and develop greater self sufficiency.

616
00:33:07,016 --> 00:33:08,500
None of these steps will prevent Collapse,

617
00:33:08,500 --> 00:33:12,500
but they might improve your chances in a low energy future,

618
00:33:13,091 --> 00:33:15,417
one in which we will have to be more self reliant,

619
00:33:15,417 --> 00:33:18,417
as our ancestors once were.