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NINCS HOLNAP

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Ez a Föld bolygó,

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kilencvenmillió évvel ezelőtt.

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A geológusok a kései krétakornak nevezik ezt az időszakot.

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Ez a drasztikus globális fölmelegedés kora volt,

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mikor még a dinoszauruszok uralták a bolygót.

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Csak élték az életüket,

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biztonságban érezvén magukat a tápláléklánc tetején,

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észre sem véve a körülöttük történő változásokat.

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A kontinensek egyre jobban eltávolodtak,

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hatalmas repedéseket létrehozva a Föld felszínén.

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Ezek megteltek vízzel, s tengerekké váltak.

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Az algák tömegesen szaporodtak a melegben,

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megmérgezvén a vizeket.

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Aztán elpusztultak,

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s lesüllyedtek, milliószám, a tengerfenékre.

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A folyók üledéket sodortak a tengerekbe,

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mígnem az algák szerves maradványai eltemetve nyugodtak.

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Ahogy a nyomás emelkedett, úgy nőtt a hőmérséklet is,

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mígnem a szerves anyagokat a kémiai reakciók

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átalakították szerves, szénhidrát energiahordozókká:

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olajjá és földgázzá.

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A szárazföldön hasonló folyamat játszódott le,

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amelynek eredménye a szén.

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A természetnek nagyjából ötmillió évébe tartott, hogy létrejöjjön

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az a fosszilis energiahordozó-mennyiség, amelyet a világ egy év alatt elemészt.

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A modern életvitel rá van utalva

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a fosszilizált napfényre -

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noha azt meglepően sok ember magától értetődőnek veszi.

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1860 óta a geológusok kétbillió hordó olajat fedeztek föl.

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Azóta ennek nagyjából a felét használta el a világ

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Mielőtt az ember felhasználhatná az olajat, fel kell fedezze.

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Persze először könnyű volt megtalálni és kitermelni.

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Az első nagy amerikai olajmező Spindletop volt,

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amelyet 1900-ban találtak meg.

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Sok-sok másik követte.

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A geológusok végigvadászták Amerikát,

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s hatalmas olaj-, földgáz- és szántartalékokra bukkantak.

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Amerika több olajat termelt ki, mint bármely más ország,

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ezzel megalapozván az ipari nagyhatalommá való válását.

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Azonban miután az olajkúton megkezdődik a termelés,

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csak idő kérdése, hogy mikor kezd el csökkeni.

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A különböző kutaknak más-más termelési mutatóik vannak .

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Ha az összes kutat átlagoljuk,

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az összesített függvény harang alakú lesz.

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Általában negyven évig tart

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a felfedezett olajmezők számának csúcsa után,

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hogy egy adott ország elérje a kitermelési csúcsot,

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ami után viszont a termelés folyamatosan csökken.

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Az ötvenes években

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a Shell geofizikusa, M. King Hubbert

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azt jósolta, hogy Amerika 1970 körül éri el a kitermelési csúcsot,

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40 évvel a felfedezett olajmezők számának csúcsa után.

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Kevesen hittek neki.

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Aztán 1970-ben...

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az amerikai olajkitermelés elérte a csúcsot,

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és visszafordíthatatlanul esni kezdett.

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Hubbert jóslata beigazolódott.

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Ettől a pillanattól fogva

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Amerika egyre jobban függött az importált olajtól.

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Ezek persze sebezhetővé tették a szállítási fennakadásokkal szemben,

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ami hozzájárult az 1973-as gazdasági katasztrófához,

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majd a '79-es "olajsokkhoz".

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Az Egyesült Államok történetében, a legtöbb olaj feltárás a harmincas években történt.

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A fejlett technológia dacára

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az újonnan feltárt olajmezők számában tapasztalható csökkenés könyörtelen volt.

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A legtöbb új mező, mint az ANWAR,

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a legjobb esetben is mindösszesen 17 hónapra elegendő olajat tartalmaz.

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Még a legújabb "Jack 2" nevű mező is, a Mexikói-öbölben,

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csak néhány hónapig tudja biztosítani a belföldi ellátást.

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Noha mindkét mező nagy, egyik sem közelíti meg az elégséges méretet

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Amerika igényének a kielégítéséhez.

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Egyre jobban gyűlnek a bizonyítékok,

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hogy a világ olajkitermelése most éri el a csúcsát, vagy pedig afelé közelít.

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Globálisan, az új olajmezők feltárásának száma a 60-as években érte el a tetőzést.

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Több mint 40 évvel később,

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az új mezők felfedezésének hanyatlása,

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megállíthatatlannak tűnik.

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54 ország a 65 fő olajkitermelő ország közül

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már elérte a kitermelési csúcsot.

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A többi ország pedig várhatóan követi őket a közeljövőben.

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A világnak háromévente szüksége lesz

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egy új Szaúd-Arábiára,

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hogy behozza a meglévő mezők hozamának csökkenését.

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A hatvanas években,

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hatszor több hordó olajat találtak, mint amennyit felhasználtak.

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Évtizedekkel később,

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a világ olaj felhasználása 3-6-szor több,

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mint amennyit találnak.

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Miután a világ olajhozama eléri a csúcsot,

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az olaj iránti kereslet megelőzi a kínálatot,

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és a gázolaj ára féktelen hullámzásba fog kezdeni,

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amely sokkal több dolgot befolyásol, mint az üzemanyagárak.

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A modern városok alá vannak rendelve a fosszilis üzemanyagoknak.

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Még az utak is, amelyek aszfaltból vannak,

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kőolajalapúak,

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csakúgy, mint nagyon sok ház teteje is.

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Hatalmas területek lennének lakhatatlanok

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fűtés nélkül télen, vagy légkondícionálás nélkül nyáron.

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A külvárosi terjeszkedés arra ösztönzi az embereket, hogy mérföldeket autózzanak

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a munkába, iskolába és a boltokba.

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A nagyobb városok fel vannak osztva lakó

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és kereskedelmi negyedekre egymástól távol elhelyezve,

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arra kényszerítve az embereket, hogy autózzanak.

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A külvárosok és sok közösség

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a bőséges olaj és energia felhasználás alapjára vannak tervezve.

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A vegyianyagok amelyek fosszilis üzemanyagokból származnak

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vagy petro-kémiai anyagokból,

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számtalan termék gyártásában nélkülözhetetlenek.

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A mezőgazdaság modern rendszere

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erősen támaszkodik a fosszilis energiahordozókra,

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csakúgy mint a kórházak ,

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légi közlekedés,

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vízellátó rendszerek,

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és az amerikai hadsereg,

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amely egymaga, körülbelül 140 millió hordó olajat használ el évente.

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A kőolaj elengedhetetlen továbbá a műanyagok, polimerek gyártásában,

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kulcsfontosságú összetevője a számitógépeknek, szórakoztató eszközöknek és a ruhaiparnak.

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A világgazdaság jelenleg a végtelen növekedésen alapszik,

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igényelve az olcsó energia növekvő kínálatát.

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Annyira függünk az olajtól és egyéb fosszilis energiahordozóktól,

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hogy még egy apró zavar az ellátásban is

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messzemenő következményekkel járna, életünk minden tekintetében.

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ENERGIA

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A munkavégzéshez energia szükséges.

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Ma egy átlagos amerikai, 150 rabszolga 24 órás munkájával egyenlő energiát vesz igénybe.

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Azok az anyagok amelyek ezt az energiát tárolják a munkához, üzemanyagnak hívjuk.

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Néhány üzemanyag több energiát tárol mint a többi.

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Ezt hívják energiasűrűségnek.

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Ezek közöl az olaj a legkritikusabb.

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A világ éves kőolaj fogyasztása 30 milliárd hordó,

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ez 1 köbmérföld olajjal egyenlő,

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amely annyi energiát tartalmaz,

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amit 52 nukleáris erőmű tudna megtermelni

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a következő 50 évig.

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Habár olajjal csupán az elektromosáram 1,6%-át termelik,

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ez látja el energiával a közlekedés 96 százalékát.

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2008-ban, Amerika olajkészletének 2/3-a importból származott.

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A legtöbb Kanadából,

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Mexikóból,

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Szaúd Arábiából,

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Venezuelából,

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Nigériából, Irakból és Angólából ment.

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Több tényező teszi az olajat különlegessé:

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energiában gazdag.

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Egyetlen hordó olaj annyi energiát tartalmaz, amely megegyezik

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csaknem 3 évnyi emberi munkával.

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Szobahőmérsékleten folyékony halmazállapotú,

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könnyű szállítani,

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és használható kis motorokban.

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Ahhoz, hogy hozzájuss az energiához, energiát kell felhasználnod.

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Az a trükk, hogy kisebb energia mennyiséggel találnak és nyernek ki nagyobb energia mennyiséget.

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Ezt hívják EROEI-nak:

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Energy Return on Energy Invested (Energetikai megtérülés)

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Hagyományosan, az olaj egy jó példa erre.

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A könnyen feldolgozható, magas minőségű nyersolaj lett először kitermelve.

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Az olaj mágnás 1 hordó olaj energiájának befektetésével talált meg és dolgozott fel 100 hordó olajat.

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Az olaj EROEI-je 100 volt.

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Amint legelőször a könnyen hozzáférhető olajat ktermelték,

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a kutatások áthelyeződtek a mély tengerekre,

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vagy a távoli országokba,

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egyre több energia felhasználásával.

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Gyakran az olaj, amit ma találunk, nehéz vagy savanyú nyersolaj

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és ennek drága a finomítása.

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Az EROEI értéke ma az olajnak alacsonyabb mint 10.

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Ha több energiát használsz el az üzemanyag kinyerésére mint amennyi energiát az tartalmaz,

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akkor az nem éri meg az erőfeszítést.

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Lehetőség van rá, hogy egy üzemanyagforrást átalakítsunk egy másikra.

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Minden alkalommal amikor így teszünk,

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valamennyi energia elveszlik az eredeti üzemanyagból.

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For instance, there is unconventional oil:

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Tar Sands and Shale.

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Tar Sands are found mainly in Canada.

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Two thirds of the world's shale is in the US.

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Both of these fuels can be converted to synthetic crude oil.

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However, this requires large amounts of heat and fresh water,

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reducing their EROEI,

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which varies from five, to as low as one and a half.

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Shale is an exceptionally poor fuel,

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pound for pound containing about one third the energy

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of a box of breakfast cereal.

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Coal exists in vast quantities,

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and generates almost half of the planet's electricity.

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The world uses almost 2 cubic miles of coal a year.

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However, Global coal production may peak before 2040.

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The claim that America has centuries worth of coal is deceptive,

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as it fails to account for growing demand, and decreasing quality.

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Much of the high quality anthracite coal is gone,

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leaving lower quality coal that is less energy dense.

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Production issues arise, as surface coal is depleted,

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and miners have to dig deeper and in less accessible areas.

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Many use destructive mountaintop removal to reach coal deposits,

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causing environmental mayhem.

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Natural gas is often found alongside oil and coal.

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North American discovery of conventional gas peaked in the 1950s,

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and production peaked in the early 70s.

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If the discovery graph is moved forward by 23 years,

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the possible future of North American conventional natural gas production

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is revealed.

200
00:11:41,044 --> 00:11:44,792
Recent breakthroughs have allowed the extraction of unconventional natural gas,

201
00:11:44,792 --> 00:11:50,066
such as shale gas, which might help offset decline in the years ahead.

202
00:11:51,044 --> 00:11:54,200
Unconventional natural gas is controversial,

203
00:11:54,202 --> 00:11:57,566
as it needs high energy prices to be profitable.

204
00:11:58,061 --> 00:11:59,750
Even with Unconventional gas,

205
00:11:59,750 --> 00:12:05,229
there may be a peak in global natural gas production by 2030.

206
00:12:07,900 --> 00:12:10,917
Large uranium reserves for nuclear fission still exist.

207
00:12:12,027 --> 00:12:15,833
To replace the 10 terawatts the world currently generates from fossil fuels,

208
00:12:15,833 --> 00:12:19,230
would require 10,000 nuclear power plants.

209
00:12:19,250 --> 00:12:24,300
At that rate, the known reserves of uranium would last for only 10 to 20 years.

210
00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:29,083
Experiments with plutonium based fast-breeder reactors

211
00:12:29,083 --> 00:12:31,107
in France and Japan

212
00:12:31,108 --> 00:12:33,440
have been expensive failures.

213
00:12:33,687 --> 00:12:37,737
Nuclear fusion faces massive technical obstacles.

214
00:12:39,022 --> 00:12:40,300
Then there are the renewables.

215
00:12:40,302 --> 00:12:45,353
Windpower has a high EROEI, but is intermittent.

216
00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:47,400
Hydro power is reliable,

217
00:12:47,405 --> 00:12:50,856
but most rivers in the developed world are already dammed.

218
00:12:52,035 --> 00:12:54,002
Conventional geothermal power plants

219
00:12:54,003 --> 00:12:56,900
use existing hotspots near the Earth's surface.

220
00:12:57,000 --> 00:12:59,583
They are limited to those areas.

221
00:13:01,029 --> 00:13:02,750
In the experimental EGS system,

222
00:13:02,750 --> 00:13:06,042
two shafts would be drilled 6 miles deep.

223
00:13:06,043 --> 00:13:09,167
Water is pumped down one shaft, to be heated in fissures,

224
00:13:09,167 --> 00:13:12,451
then rise up the other, generating power.

225
00:13:13,091 --> 00:13:15,300
According to a recent MIT report,

226
00:13:15,301 --> 00:13:21,181
this technology might supply 10% of US electricity by 2050.

227
00:13:22,091 --> 00:13:25,333
Wave power is restricted to coastal areas.

228
00:13:25,333 --> 00:13:29,400
The energy density of waves varies from region to region.

229
00:13:31,014 --> 00:13:35,092
Transporting wave-generated electricity inland would be challenging.

230
00:13:35,092 --> 00:13:38,792
Also, the salty ocean environment is corrosive to turbines.

231
00:13:41,004 --> 00:13:42,708
Biofuels are fuels that are grown.

232
00:13:43,095 --> 00:13:46,445
Wood has a low energy density, and grows slowly.

233
00:13:46,445 --> 00:13:49,958
The world uses 3.7 cubic miles of wood a year.

234
00:13:51,437 --> 00:13:52,917
Biodiesel and ethanol

235
00:13:52,917 --> 00:13:57,033
are made from crops grown by petroleum powered agriculture.

236
00:13:57,500 --> 00:14:00,792
The energy profit from these fuels is very low.

237
00:14:02,010 --> 00:14:05,091
Some politicians want to turn corn into ethanol.

238
00:14:05,091 --> 00:14:10,208
Using Ethanol to supply one tenth of projected US oil use in 2020,

239
00:14:10,208 --> 00:14:13,603
would require 3% of America's Land.

240
00:14:15,014 --> 00:14:19,083
To supply one third would require 3 times the area now used to grow food.

241
00:14:20,031 --> 00:14:23,333
To supply all US petroleum consumption in 2020

242
00:14:23,333 --> 00:14:27,080
would take twice as much land as is used to grow food.

243
00:14:28,862 --> 00:14:33,500
Hydrogen has to be extracted from Natural Gas, coal or water,

244
00:14:33,500 --> 00:14:36,917
which uses more energy than we get from the Hydrogen.

245
00:14:36,917 --> 00:14:39,600
This makes a Hydrogen economy unlikely.

246
00:14:42,500 --> 00:14:45,625
All the world's photovoltaic solar panels generate as much electricity

247
00:14:45,625 --> 00:14:47,800
as two coal power plants.

248
00:14:48,800 --> 00:14:51,000
The equivalent of between 1 and 4 tons of coal

249
00:14:51,003 --> 00:14:54,400
are used in the manufacture of a single solar panel.

250
00:14:56,100 --> 00:15:00,000
We'd have to cover as many as 140,000 square miles with panels

251
00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,118
to meet current world demand.

252
00:15:02,300 --> 00:15:06,700
As of 2007, there are only about 4 square miles.

253
00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:12,042
Concentrated Solar Power, or Solar Thermal has great potential,

254
00:15:12,042 --> 00:15:16,250
though at the moment there are only a small number of plants operating.

255
00:15:17,900 --> 00:15:19,150
They are also limited to sunny climates,

256
00:15:19,300 --> 00:15:21,500
requiring large amounts of electricity

257
00:15:21,501 --> 00:15:24,433
to be transmitted over long distances.

258
00:15:26,054 --> 00:15:29,458
All of the alternatives to oil depend on oil-powered machinery,

259
00:15:29,458 --> 00:15:34,371
or require materials such as plastics that are produced from oil.

260
00:15:36,037 --> 00:15:38,890
When considering future claims of amazing new fuels or inventions,

261
00:15:38,900 --> 00:15:40,042
ask:

262
00:15:40,087 --> 00:15:44,200
Does the advocate have a working, commercial model of the invention?

263
00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:46,875
What is its energy density?

264
00:15:47,500 --> 00:15:49,958
Can it be stored or easily distributed?

265
00:15:51,004 --> 00:15:53,083
Is it reliable or intermittent?

266
00:15:53,083 --> 00:15:56,000
Can it be scaled to a national level?

267
00:15:56,300 --> 00:15:58,800
Are there hidden engineering challenges?

268
00:15:59,800 --> 00:16:02,095
What is the EROEI?

269
00:16:02,095 --> 00:16:04,700
What are the environmental impacts?

270
00:16:04,901 --> 00:16:07,700
Remember that large numbers can be deceptive.

271
00:16:08,044 --> 00:16:09,900
For example: 1 billion barrels of oil

272
00:16:09,901 --> 00:16:13,868
will satisfy global demand for only 12 days.

273
00:16:15,058 --> 00:16:19,000
A transition from fossil fuels would be a monumental challenge.

274
00:16:19,700 --> 00:16:24,417
As of 2007, coal generates 48.5% of U.S. electricity.

275
00:16:24,417 --> 00:16:27,289
21.6% is from natural gas,

276
00:16:27,289 --> 00:16:30,215
1.6% is from petroleum,

277
00:16:30,215 --> 00:16:32,676
19.4% is from nuclear,

278
00:16:32,676 --> 00:16:34,900
5.8% is from hydro.

279
00:16:35,087 --> 00:16:39,000
Other renewables only generate 2.5%.

280
00:16:40,037 --> 00:16:43,125
Is it possible to replace a system based on fossil fuels

281
00:16:43,125 --> 00:16:45,700
with a patchwork of alternatives?

282
00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:48,700
Major technological advances are needed,

283
00:16:48,900 --> 00:16:51,500
as well as political will and co-operation,

284
00:16:51,900 --> 00:16:53,400
massive investment,

285
00:16:53,542 --> 00:16:55,500
international consensus,

286
00:16:56,050 --> 00:16:59,300
the retrofitting of the $45 trillion global economy,

287
00:16:59,301 --> 00:17:01,668
including transportation,

288
00:17:02,027 --> 00:17:03,000
manufacturing industries,

289
00:17:03,001 --> 00:17:05,083
and agricultural systems,

290
00:17:05,083 --> 00:17:08,700
as well as officials competent to manage the transition.

291
00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:11,523
If all these are achieved,

292
00:17:11,523 --> 00:17:14,523
could the current way of life continue?

293
00:17:19,004 --> 00:17:21,009
Growth

294
00:17:21,009 --> 00:17:23,300
These bacteria live in a bottle.

295
00:17:24,008 --> 00:17:25,800
Their population doubles every minute.

296
00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:29,300
At 11AM there is one bacterium.

297
00:17:30,087 --> 00:17:32,100
At 12 noon the bottle is full.

298
00:17:33,081 --> 00:17:35,295
It is half-full at 11.59

299
00:17:35,295 --> 00:17:37,985
leaving only enough space for one more doubling.

300
00:17:38,900 --> 00:17:41,033
The bacteria see the danger.

301
00:17:41,033 --> 00:17:44,056
They search for new bottles, and find 3.

302
00:17:44,056 --> 00:17:47,083
They assume that their problem is solved.

303
00:17:47,083 --> 00:17:49,600
By 12 noon, the first bottle is full.

304
00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:53,136
By 12.01, the second bottle is full.

305
00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:56,820
By 12.02, all the bottles are full.

306
00:17:57,900 --> 00:17:59,928
This is the problem that we face,

307
00:17:59,928 --> 00:18:03,200
due to the doubling caused by Exponential Growth.

308
00:18:06,061 --> 00:18:09,280
When humanity began to use coal and oil as fuel sources,

309
00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:12,700
it experienced unprecedented growth.

310
00:18:14,029 --> 00:18:17,326
Even low growth rates produce large increases over time.

311
00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:20,100
At a 1% growth rate,

312
00:18:20,150 --> 00:18:22,900
an economy will double in 70 years.

313
00:18:23,500 --> 00:18:27,087
A 2% rate doubles in 35 years.

314
00:18:27,087 --> 00:18:29,264
At a 10% growth rate,

315
00:18:29,264 --> 00:18:32,350
an economy will double in only 7 years.

316
00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:36,750
If an economy grows at the current average of 3%,

317
00:18:36,750 --> 00:18:39,750
it doubles every 23 years.

318
00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:44,023
With each doubling, demand for energy and resources

319
00:18:44,023 --> 00:18:47,023
will exceed all the previous doublings combined.

320
00:18:48,079 --> 00:18:52,050
The financial system is built on the assumption of growth

321
00:18:52,050 --> 00:18:55,778
- which requires an increasing supply of energy to support it.

322
00:18:56,700 --> 00:18:58,469
Banks lend money they don't have,

323
00:18:58,469 --> 00:19:00,600
in effect creating it.

324
00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:04,816
The borrowers use the newly created loan money to grow their businesses,

325
00:19:04,816 --> 00:19:06,200
and pay back the debt,

326
00:19:06,204 --> 00:19:09,384
with an interest payment which requires more growth.

327
00:19:10,500 --> 00:19:13,019
Due to this creation of debt formed money,

328
00:19:13,019 --> 00:19:17,616
most of the world's money represents a debt with interest to be paid.

329
00:19:19,056 --> 00:19:22,100
Without continual new and ever larger generations

330
00:19:22,101 --> 00:19:24,200
of borrowers to produce growth,

331
00:19:24,500 --> 00:19:25,871
and thus pay off these debts,

332
00:19:25,871 --> 00:19:28,300
the world economy will collapse.

333
00:19:30,010 --> 00:19:31,148
Like a Ponzi Scheme,

334
00:19:31,148 --> 00:19:34,148
the system must expand or die.

335
00:19:35,500 --> 00:19:37,450
Partly through this debt system,

336
00:19:37,500 --> 00:19:40,400
the effects of economic growth have been spectacular:

337
00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:41,600
in GDP,

338
00:19:41,601 --> 00:19:43,112
damming of rivers,

339
00:19:43,112 --> 00:19:44,150
water use,

340
00:19:44,183 --> 00:19:46,456
fertiliser consumption,

341
00:19:46,456 --> 00:19:47,762
urban population,

342
00:19:47,762 --> 00:19:49,669
paper consumption,

343
00:19:49,669 --> 00:19:51,105
motor vehicles,

344
00:19:51,105 --> 00:19:52,411
communications

345
00:19:52,411 --> 00:19:54,100
and tourism.

346
00:19:55,068 --> 00:19:57,453
World population has grown to 7 billion,

347
00:19:57,453 --> 00:20:01,189
and is expected to exceed 9 billion by 2050.

348
00:20:02,041 --> 00:20:05,500
On a flat, infinite earth, this would not be a problem.

349
00:20:06,300 --> 00:20:08,686
However, as the Earth is round and finite,

350
00:20:08,686 --> 00:20:11,686
we will eventually face limits to growth.

351
00:20:13,084 --> 00:20:14,302
Economic expansion

352
00:20:14,302 --> 00:20:18,300
has resulted in increases in atmospheric nitrous oxide

353
00:20:18,301 --> 00:20:19,100
and methane,

354
00:20:19,101 --> 00:20:20,702
ozone depletion,

355
00:20:20,870 --> 00:20:22,833
increases in great floods,

356
00:20:22,833 --> 00:20:25,833
damage to ocean ecosystems,

357
00:20:25,874 --> 00:20:27,703
including nitrogen runoff,

358
00:20:27,703 --> 00:20:30,759
loss of rainforest and woodland,

359
00:20:30,759 --> 00:20:33,110
increases in domesticated land,

360
00:20:33,110 --> 00:20:36,110
and species exinctions.

361
00:20:38,052 --> 00:20:40,200
If we place a single grain of rice

362
00:20:40,201 --> 00:20:42,070
on the first square of a chessboard,

363
00:20:42,070 --> 00:20:45,200
double this and place 2 grains on the second,

364
00:20:46,014 --> 00:20:48,600
double again and place 4 on the third,

365
00:20:49,100 --> 00:20:51,470
double again and place 8 on the fourth,

366
00:20:51,500 --> 00:20:52,650
and continue this way,

367
00:20:52,650 --> 00:20:55,471
putting on each square twice the number of grains

368
00:20:55,471 --> 00:20:57,100
than were on the previous one,

369
00:20:57,101 --> 00:20:59,001
by the time we reach the final square,

370
00:20:59,002 --> 00:21:01,244
we need an astronomical number of grains:

371
00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:05,215
9 quintillion,

372
00:21:05,215 --> 00:21:07,435
223 quadrillion,

373
00:21:07,435 --> 00:21:09,290
372 trillion,

374
00:21:09,290 --> 00:21:11,275
36 billion,

375
00:21:11,275 --> 00:21:13,051
854 million,

376
00:21:13,051 --> 00:21:16,552
776 thousand grains:

377
00:21:17,044 --> 00:21:18,563
more grain than the human race

378
00:21:18,563 --> 00:21:21,563
has grown in the last 10,000 years.

379
00:21:22,900 --> 00:21:23,709
Modern economies,

380
00:21:23,709 --> 00:21:25,407
like the grains on the chess board,

381
00:21:25,407 --> 00:21:27,300
doubles every few decades.

382
00:21:27,700 --> 00:21:30,600
On which square of the chessboard are we?

383
00:21:33,087 --> 00:21:34,759
Besides energy,

384
00:21:34,759 --> 00:21:37,659
civilisation demands numerous essential resources:

385
00:21:37,950 --> 00:21:39,252
fresh water,

386
00:21:39,252 --> 00:21:40,480
topsoil,

387
00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:41,316
food,

388
00:21:41,316 --> 00:21:42,126
forests,

389
00:21:42,126 --> 00:21:44,500
and many kinds of minerals and metals.

390
00:21:45,087 --> 00:21:46,150
Growth is limited

391
00:21:46,151 --> 00:21:49,208
by the essential resource in scarcest supply.

392
00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:52,313
A barrel is made of staves,

393
00:21:52,313 --> 00:21:54,978
and like water filling a barrel,

394
00:21:54,978 --> 00:21:57,792
growth can go no further than the lowest stave,

395
00:21:57,792 --> 00:22:00,900
or the most limited essential resource.

396
00:22:02,300 --> 00:22:03,833
Humans currently utilise

397
00:22:03,833 --> 00:22:07,300
40% of all photosynthesis n Earth.

398
00:22:08,021 --> 00:22:09,737
Though it might be possible to use 80%,

399
00:22:09,737 --> 00:22:13,500
we are unlikely to ever use 160%.

400
00:22:23,242 --> 00:22:25,900
FOOD

401
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:28,180
The global food supply

402
00:22:28,180 --> 00:22:29,900
relies heavily on fossil fuels.

403
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:33,143
Before WW1,

404
00:22:33,143 --> 00:22:35,468
all agriculture was Organic.

405
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:39,804
Following the invention of fossil fuel derived fertilisers and pesticides

406
00:22:39,804 --> 00:22:42,500
there were massive improvements in food production,

407
00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:45,300
allowing for increases in human population.

408
00:22:48,095 --> 00:22:49,391
The use of artificial fertilisers

409
00:22:49,391 --> 00:22:51,600
has fed far more people than would have been possible

410
00:22:51,601 --> 00:22:54,875
with organic agriculture alone.

411
00:22:56,050 --> 00:22:58,351
Fossil fuels are needed for farming equipment,

412
00:22:58,351 --> 00:22:59,814
transportation,

413
00:22:59,750 --> 00:23:00,708
refrigeration,

414
00:23:01,068 --> 00:23:02,557
packaging - in plastic,

415
00:23:02,557 --> 00:23:04,673
and cooking.

416
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:08,878
Modern agriculture uses land to turn fossil fuels into food

417
00:23:08,878 --> 00:23:10,600
- and food into people.

418
00:23:12,004 --> 00:23:13,920
About 7 calories of fossil-fuel energy

419
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,920
are used to produce 1 calorie of food.

420
00:23:19,300 --> 00:23:25,022
In America, food travels approximately 1,500 miles from farm to customer.

421
00:23:30,083 --> 00:23:31,527
Besides fossil fuel decline,

422
00:23:31,527 --> 00:23:34,896
there are several threats to the current system of food production:

423
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:36,333
Cheap energy,

424
00:23:36,333 --> 00:23:37,927
improved technology

425
00:23:37,927 --> 00:23:41,349
and subsidies have allowed massive fish catches.

426
00:23:43,091 --> 00:23:45,708
Global fish catches peaked in the late nineteen eighties,

427
00:23:45,708 --> 00:23:48,708
forcing fishermen to move into deep waters.

428
00:23:53,083 --> 00:23:55,716
Nitrogen run off by fossil fuel based fertilisers

429
00:23:55,716 --> 00:23:59,500
poisons rivers and seas, creating enormous dead zones.

430
00:24:00,500 --> 00:24:01,306
At this rate,

431
00:24:01,306 --> 00:24:03,971
all fish populations are projected to collapse

432
00:24:03,971 --> 00:24:05,930
by 2048.

433
00:24:07,091 --> 00:24:11,311
Acid rain from cities and industries leeches the soil of vital nutrients,

434
00:24:11,311 --> 00:24:12,356
such as potassium,

435
00:24:12,356 --> 00:24:13,218
calcium,

436
00:24:13,218 --> 00:24:14,500
and magnesium.

437
00:24:18,027 --> 00:24:20,095
Another threat is a lack of water.

438
00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:25,200
Many farms use water pumped from underground aquifers for irrigation.

439
00:24:26,050 --> 00:24:28,891
The aquifers need thousands of years to fill up,

440
00:24:28,891 --> 00:24:30,772
but can be pumped dry in a few decades,

441
00:24:30,772 --> 00:24:32,600
like oil wells.

442
00:24:34,029 --> 00:24:36,911
America's massive Ogallala aquifer has fallen so low

443
00:24:36,911 --> 00:24:40,750
that many farmers have had to return to less productive dry-land farming.

444
00:24:42,056 --> 00:24:46,576
Additionally, The use of irrigation and fertilisers can lead to salinisation:

445
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:48,600
the accumulation of salt in the soil.

446
00:24:49,300 --> 00:24:51,500
This is a major cause of desertification.

447
00:24:53,078 --> 00:24:56,100
Still another threat is topsoil loss.

448
00:24:56,500 --> 00:24:57,652
200 years ago,

449
00:24:57,652 --> 00:25:00,600
there were 6 feet of topsoil on the American prairies.

450
00:25:01,100 --> 00:25:03,333
Today, through tillage and poor practices,

451
00:25:03,333 --> 00:25:06,333
approximately half is gone.

452
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:13,273
Irrigation encourages the growth of stem rust fungi like UG-99

453
00:25:13,273 --> 00:25:17,700
- which has the potential to destroy 80% of the world's grain harvest.

454
00:25:19,010 --> 00:25:20,083
According to Norman Borlaug,

455
00:25:20,083 --> 00:25:22,207
father of the Green Revolution,

456
00:25:22,300 --> 00:25:27,902
stem rust "has immense potential for social and human destruction."

457
00:25:29,079 --> 00:25:32,000
The use of biofuels means that less land

458
00:25:32,001 --> 00:25:35,108
will be available for food production.

459
00:25:37,054 --> 00:25:39,200
An area has a finite carrying capacity.

460
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:41,642
This is the number of animals or people

461
00:25:41,642 --> 00:25:43,800
that can live there indefinitely.

462
00:25:44,083 --> 00:25:47,494
If a species overshoots the carrying capacity of that area,

463
00:25:47,494 --> 00:25:51,700
it will die back until the population returns to its natural limits.

464
00:25:53,029 --> 00:25:54,167
The world has avoided this die-off

465
00:25:54,167 --> 00:25:56,400
by finding new lands to cultivate,

466
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:57,875
or by increasing production,

467
00:25:57,875 --> 00:26:00,980
which has been possible largely thanks to oil.

468
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:03,638
To continue growth,

469
00:26:03,638 --> 00:26:06,900
more resources are required than the Earth can provide,

470
00:26:07,091 --> 00:26:09,900
but no new planets are available.

471
00:26:11,079 --> 00:26:13,251
In the face of all these challenges,

472
00:26:13,300 --> 00:26:16,417
global food production must double by 2050

473
00:26:16,301 --> 00:26:18,900
to feed the growing world population.

474
00:26:21,044 --> 00:26:23,667
1 billion people are already malnourished or starving.

475
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:27,600
There will be challenges in feeding over 9 billion in the years to come,

476
00:26:28,094 --> 00:26:31,900
when world oil and natural gas production will be in decline.

477
00:26:41,054 --> 00:26:42,600
HAPPY ENDING

478
00:26:45,988 --> 00:26:48,100
The global economy grows exponentially,

479
00:26:48,101 --> 00:26:50,000
at about 3% a year,

480
00:26:50,056 --> 00:26:53,270
consuming increasing amounts of non-renewable fuels,

481
00:26:53,270 --> 00:26:54,900
minerals and metals,

482
00:26:54,901 --> 00:26:56,849
as well as renewable resources

483
00:26:56,849 --> 00:27:00,271
like water, forests, soils and fish

484
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:02,335
faster than they can be replenished.

485
00:27:03,900 --> 00:27:05,574
Even at a growth rate of 1%,

486
00:27:05,574 --> 00:27:08,200
an economy will double in 70 years.

487
00:27:10,016 --> 00:27:13,058
The problem is intensified by other factors:

488
00:27:13,058 --> 00:27:15,500
Globalisation allows people on one continent

489
00:27:15,500 --> 00:27:18,500
to buy goods and food made by those on another.

490
00:27:19,095 --> 00:27:20,751
The lines of supply are long,

491
00:27:20,751 --> 00:27:23,751
placing strains on a limited oil resource.

492
00:27:26,057 --> 00:27:29,333
We now rely on distant countries for basic necessities.

493
00:27:30,700 --> 00:27:32,800
Modern cities are fossil fuel dependent.

494
00:27:34,033 --> 00:27:36,600
Most Banking Systems are based on debt,

495
00:27:36,650 --> 00:27:40,029
forcing people into a spiral of loans and repayments

496
00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:41,800
- producing growth.

497
00:27:43,095 --> 00:27:46,200
What can be done in the face of these problems?

498
00:27:47,029 --> 00:27:48,600
Many believe that the crisis can be prevented

499
00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:50,250
through conservation,

500
00:27:50,251 --> 00:27:51,079
technology,

501
00:27:51,079 --> 00:27:52,568
smart growth,

502
00:27:52,568 --> 00:27:53,800
recycling,

503
00:27:53,801 --> 00:27:55,100
electric cars and hybrids,

504
00:27:55,101 --> 00:27:57,061
substitution,

505
00:27:57,061 --> 00:27:58,300
or voting.

506
00:28:00,091 --> 00:28:01,371
Conservation will save you money,

507
00:28:01,371 --> 00:28:03,696
but it alone won't save the planet.

508
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:07,250
If some people cut back on oil use,

509
00:28:07,300 --> 00:28:09,900
the reduced demand will drive down the price,

510
00:28:09,901 --> 00:28:12,167
allowing others to buy it for less.

511
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:13,583
In the same fashion,

512
00:28:13,583 --> 00:28:17,400
a more efficient engine that uses less energy will,

513
00:28:17,401 --> 00:28:20,900
paradoxically, lead to greater energy use.

514
00:28:21,900 --> 00:28:22,896
In the 19th century,

515
00:28:22,896 --> 00:28:25,535
English economist William Stanley Jevons

516
00:28:25,535 --> 00:28:28,100
realised that Better steam engines made coal

517
00:28:28,101 --> 00:28:31,000
a more cost effective fuel source,

518
00:28:31,001 --> 00:28:32,797
which led to the use of more steam engines,

519
00:28:32,797 --> 00:28:35,800
which increased total coal consumption.

520
00:28:37,087 --> 00:28:40,200
Growth of use will consume any energy or resources

521
00:28:40,201 --> 00:28:42,400
saved through conservation.

522
00:28:48,029 --> 00:28:48,708
Many believe that scientists

523
00:28:48,708 --> 00:28:51,990
will solve these problems with new technology.

524
00:28:52,500 --> 00:28:55,105
However, technology is not energy.

525
00:28:56,048 --> 00:28:57,900
Technology can channel energy into work,

526
00:28:57,901 --> 00:28:59,500
but it can't replace it.

527
00:29:00,300 --> 00:29:02,393
It also consumes resources:

528
00:29:02,393 --> 00:29:03,042
for instance;

529
00:29:03,042 --> 00:29:04,750
computers are made with one tenth

530
00:29:04,751 --> 00:29:07,708
of the energy needed to make a car.

531
00:29:08,872 --> 00:29:10,250
More advanced technologies

532
00:29:10,251 --> 00:29:12,150
may make the situation worse,

533
00:29:12,151 --> 00:29:14,436
as many require rare minerals,

534
00:29:14,436 --> 00:29:16,200
which are also approaching limits.

535
00:29:17,058 --> 00:29:17,832
For example,

536
00:29:17,832 --> 00:29:21,724
97% of the world's Rare Earths are produced by China,

537
00:29:21,724 --> 00:29:24,800
most from a single mine in inner Mongolia.

538
00:29:26,500 --> 00:29:28,833
These minerals are used in catalytic converters,

539
00:29:28,833 --> 00:29:30,542
aircraft engines,

540
00:29:30,542 --> 00:29:33,250
high efficiency magnets and hard drives,

541
00:29:33,250 --> 00:29:35,151
hybrid car batteries,

542
00:29:35,151 --> 00:29:36,353
lasers,

543
00:29:36,353 --> 00:29:37,583
portable X-Rays,

544
00:29:37,583 --> 00:29:39,801
shielding for nuclear reactors,

545
00:29:39,801 --> 00:29:41,708
compact discs,

546
00:29:41,708 --> 00:29:43,550
hybrid vehicle motors,

547
00:29:43,551 --> 00:29:45,313
low energy light-bulbs,

548
00:29:45,313 --> 00:29:46,567
fibre optics

549
00:29:46,567 --> 00:29:48,200
and flat-screen displays.

550
00:29:49,083 --> 00:29:52,549
China has begun to consider restricting the export of these minerals,

551
00:29:52,549 --> 00:29:54,300
as demand soars.

552
00:29:57,083 --> 00:30:00,750
So called sustainable growth or smart growth won't help,

553
00:30:00,750 --> 00:30:03,700
as it also uses non renewable metals and minerals

554
00:30:03,701 --> 00:30:05,375
in ever increasing quantities,

555
00:30:05,375 --> 00:30:07,517
including Rare Earths.

556
00:30:08,900 --> 00:30:10,500
Recycling will not solve the problem,

557
00:30:10,501 --> 00:30:11,582
as it requires energy,

558
00:30:11,583 --> 00:30:14,400
and the process is not 100% efficient.

559
00:30:16,010 --> 00:30:19,820
It is only possible to reclaim a fraction of the material being recycled;

560
00:30:19,820 --> 00:30:22,820
a large portion is lost forever as waste.

561
00:30:25,056 --> 00:30:27,600
Electric cars run on electricity.

562
00:30:28,054 --> 00:30:30,557
As most power is generated from fossil fuels,

563
00:30:30,557 --> 00:30:32,600
this is not a solution.

564
00:30:33,095 --> 00:30:37,270
Also, cars of all types consume oil in their production.

565
00:30:37,270 --> 00:30:41,200
Each tire alone requires about 7 gallons of Petroleum.

566
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:47,333
There are around 800 million cars in the world, as of 2010.

567
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:49,042
At current growth rates,

568
00:30:49,042 --> 00:30:52,950
this number would reach 2 billion by 2025.

569
00:30:53,900 --> 00:30:57,200
It is unlikely that the planet can support this many vehicles for long,

570
00:30:57,201 --> 00:30:59,800
regardless of their power source.

571
00:31:01,031 --> 00:31:02,500
Many economists believe

572
00:31:02,687 --> 00:31:05,326
that the free market will substitute one energy source

573
00:31:05,326 --> 00:31:07,400
with another through technological innovation.

574
00:31:08,100 --> 00:31:10,200
However, the main substitutes to oil

575
00:31:10,201 --> 00:31:12,292
face their own decline rates.

576
00:31:13,900 --> 00:31:18,570
Substitution also fails to account for the time needed to prepare for a transition.

577
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:21,833
The U.S. Department of Energy's Hirsch report

578
00:31:21,833 --> 00:31:25,350
estimates that at least 2 decades would be needed to prepare

579
00:31:25,351 --> 00:31:27,900
for the effects of Peak Oil.

580
00:31:28,900 --> 00:31:31,170
The issues of energy shortages,

581
00:31:31,171 --> 00:31:33,068
resource depletion,

582
00:31:33,068 --> 00:31:34,750
topsoil loss,

583
00:31:34,750 --> 00:31:39,180
and pollution are all symptoms of a single, larger problem:

584
00:31:40,500 --> 00:31:42,500
Growth.

585
00:31:43,700 --> 00:31:46,333
As long as our financial system demands endless growth,

586
00:31:46,333 --> 00:31:49,300
reform is unlikely to succeed.

587
00:31:49,927 --> 00:31:52,542
What then, will the future look like?

588
00:31:54,033 --> 00:31:56,375
Optimists believe that growth will continue forever,

589
00:31:56,375 --> 00:31:57,806
without limits.

590
00:31:59,044 --> 00:32:02,125
Pessimists think that we're heading towards a new Stone Age,

591
00:32:02,125 --> 00:32:04,100
or extinction.

592
00:32:05,031 --> 00:32:06,417
The truth may lie between these extremes.

593
00:32:07,417 --> 00:32:11,964
It is possible that society might fall back to a simpler state,

594
00:32:12,100 --> 00:32:14,792
one in which energy use is a lot less.

595
00:32:16,029 --> 00:32:18,095
This would mean a harder life for most.

596
00:32:18,095 --> 00:32:18,708
More manual labour,

597
00:32:18,708 --> 00:32:20,417
more farm work,

598
00:32:20,417 --> 00:32:24,111
and local production of goods, food and services.

599
00:32:25,079 --> 00:32:28,500
What should a person do to prepare for such a possible future?

600
00:32:29,083 --> 00:32:33,292
Expect a decrease in supplies of food and goods from far away places.

601
00:32:34,104 --> 00:32:35,762
Start walking or cycling.

602
00:32:36,500 --> 00:32:39,079
Get used to using less electricity.

603
00:32:40,029 --> 00:32:41,100
Get out of debt.

604
00:32:41,900 --> 00:32:42,893
Try to avoid banks.

605
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:45,300
Instead of shopping at big box stores,

606
00:32:45,301 --> 00:32:48,095
support local businesses.

607
00:32:48,150 --> 00:32:51,600
Buy food grown locally, at Farmers' Markets.

608
00:32:51,601 --> 00:32:55,417
Instead of a lawn, consider gardening to grow your own food.

609
00:32:55,450 --> 00:32:57,100
Learn how to preserve it.

610
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:00,000
Consider the use of local currencies

611
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:02,500
should the larger economy cease to function,

612
00:33:02,500 --> 00:33:05,500
and develop greater self sufficiency.

613
00:33:07,016 --> 00:33:08,500
None of these steps will prevent Collapse,

614
00:33:08,500 --> 00:33:12,500
but they might improve your chances in a low energy future,

615
00:33:13,091 --> 00:33:15,417
one in which we will have to be more self reliant,

616
00:33:15,417 --> 00:33:18,417
as our ancestors once were.