0:00:23.028,0:00:30.720
NINCS HOLNAP

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Ez a Föld bolygó,

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kilencvenmillió évvel ezelőtt.

0:00:51.341,0:00:55.087
A geológusok a kései krétakornak nevezik ezt az időszakot.

0:00:55.087,0:00:58.000
Ez a drasztikus globális fölmelegedés kora volt,

0:00:58.500,0:01:00.500
mikor még a dinoszauruszok uralták a bolygót.

0:01:01.100,0:01:02.600
Csak élték az életüket,

0:01:02.800,0:01:05.300
biztonságban érezvén magukat a tápláléklánc tetején,

0:01:07.505,0:01:10.100
észre sem véve a körülöttük történő változásokat.

0:01:11.005,0:01:12.350
A kontinensek egyre jobban eltávolodtak,

0:01:12.353,0:01:15.353
hatalmas repedéseket létrehozva a Föld felszínén.

0:01:15.704,0:01:18.600
Ezek megteltek vízzel, s tengerekké váltak.

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Az algák tömegesen szaporodtak a melegben,

0:01:22.387,0:01:23.500
megmérgezvén a vizeket.

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Aztán elpusztultak,

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s lesüllyedtek, milliószám, a tengerfenékre.

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A folyók üledéket sodortak a tengerekbe,

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mígnem az algák szerves maradványai eltemetve nyugodtak.

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Ahogy a nyomás emelkedett, úgy nőtt a hőmérséklet is,

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mígnem a szerves anyagokat a kémiai reakciók

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átalakították szerves, szénhidrát energiahordozókká:

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olajjá és földgázzá.

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A szárazföldön hasonló folyamat játszódott le,

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amelynek eredménye a szén.

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A természetnek nagyjából ötmillió évébe tartott, hogy létrejöjjön

0:01:57.400,0:02:01.543
az a fosszilis energiahordozó-mennyiség, amelyet a világ egy év alatt elemészt.

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A modern életvitel rá van utalva

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a fosszilizált napfényre -

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noha azt meglepően sok ember magától értetődőnek veszi.

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1860 óta a geológusok kétbillió hordó olajat fedeztek föl.

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Azóta ennek nagyjából a felét használta el a világ

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Mielőtt az ember felhasználhatná az olajat, fel kell fedezze.

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Persze először könnyű volt megtalálni és kitermelni.

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Az első nagy amerikai olajmező Spindletop volt,

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amelyet 1900-ban találtak meg.

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Sok-sok másik követte.

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A geológusok végigvadászták Amerikát,

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s hatalmas olaj-, földgáz- és szántartalékokra bukkantak.

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Amerika több olajat termelt ki, mint bármely más ország,

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ezzel megalapozván az ipari nagyhatalommá való válását.

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Azonban miután az olajkúton megkezdődik a termelés,

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csak idő kérdése, hogy mikor kezd el csökkeni.

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A különböző kutaknak más-más termelési mutatóik vannak .

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Ha az összes kutat átlagoljuk,

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az összesített függvény harang alakú lesz.

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Általában negyven évig tart

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a felfedezett olajmezők számának csúcsa után,

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hogy egy adott ország elérje a kitermelési csúcsot,

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ami után viszont a termelés folyamatosan csökken.

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Az ötvenes években

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a Shell geofizikusa, M. King Hubbert

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azt jósolta, hogy Amerika 1970 körül éri el a kitermelési csúcsot,

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40 évvel a felfedezett olajmezők számának csúcsa után.

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Kevesen hittek neki.

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Aztán 1970-ben...

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az amerikai olajkitermelés elérte a csúcsot,

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és visszafordíthatatlanul esni kezdett.

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Hubbert jóslata beigazolódott.

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Ettől a pillanattól fogva

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Amerika egyre jobban függött az importált olajtól.

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Ezek persze sebezhetővé tették a szállítási fennakadásokkal szemben,

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ami hozzájárult az 1973-as gazdasági katasztrófához,

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majd a '79-es "olajsokkhoz".

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Az Egyesült Államok történetében, a legtöbb olaj feltárás a harmincas években történt.

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A fejlett technológia dacára

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az újonnan feltárt olajmezők számában tapasztalható csökkenés könyörtelen volt.

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A legtöbb új mező, mint az ANWAR,

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a legjobb esetben is mindösszesen 17 hónapra elegendő olajat tartalmaz.

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Még a legújabb "Jack 2" nevű mező is, a Mexikói-öbölben,

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csak néhány hónapig tudja biztosítani a belföldi ellátást.

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Noha mindkét mező nagy, egyik sem közelíti meg az elégséges méretet

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Amerika igényének a kielégítéséhez.

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Egyre jobban gyűlnek a bizonyítékok,

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hogy a világ olajkitermelése most éri el a csúcsát, vagy pedig afelé közelít.

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Globálisan, az új olajmezők feltárásának száma a 60-as években érte el a tetőzést.

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Több mint 40 évvel később,

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az új mezők felfedezésének hanyatlása,

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megállíthatatlannak tűnik.

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54 ország a 65 fő olajkitermelő ország közül

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már elérte a kitermelési csúcsot.

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A többi ország pedig várhatóan követi őket a közeljövőben.

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A világnak háromévente szüksége lesz

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egy új Szaúd-Arábiára,

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hogy behozza a meglévő mezők hozamának csökkenését.

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A hatvanas években,

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hatszor több hordó olajat találtak, mint amennyit felhasználtak.

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Évtizedekkel később,

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a világ olaj felhasználása 3-6-szor több,

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mint amennyit találnak.

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Miután a világ olajhozama eléri a csúcsot,

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az olaj iránti kereslet megelőzi a kínálatot,

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és a gázolaj ára féktelen hullámzásba fog kezdeni,

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amely sokkal több dolgot befolyásol, mint az üzemanyagárak.

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A modern városok alá vannak rendelve a fosszilis üzemanyagoknak.

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Még az utak is, amelyek aszfaltból vannak,

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kőolajalapúak,

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csakúgy, mint nagyon sok ház teteje is.

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Hatalmas területek lennének lakhatatlanok

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fűtés nélkül télen, vagy légkondícionálás nélkül nyáron.

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A külvárosi terjeszkedés arra ösztönzi az embereket, hogy mérföldeket autózzanak

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a munkába, iskolába és a boltokba.

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A nagyobb városok fel vannak osztva lakó

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és kereskedelmi negyedekre egymástól távol elhelyezve,

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arra kényszerítve az embereket, hogy autózzanak.

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A külvárosok és sok közösség

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a bőséges olaj és energia felhasználás alapjára vannak tervezve.

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A vegyianyagok amelyek fosszilis üzemanyagokból származnak

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vagy petro-kémiai anyagokból,

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számtalan termék gyártásában nélkülözhetetlenek.

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A mezőgazdaság modern rendszere

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erősen támaszkodik a fosszilis energiahordozókra,

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csakúgy mint a kórházak ,

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légi közlekedés,

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vízellátó rendszerek,

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és az amerikai hadsereg,

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amely egymaga, körülbelül 140 millió hordó olajat használ el évente.

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A kőolaj elengedhetetlen továbbá a műanyagok, polimerek gyártásában,

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kulcsfontosságú összetevője a számitógépeknek, szórakoztató eszközöknek és a ruhaiparnak.

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A világgazdaság jelenleg a végtelen növekedésen alapszik,

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igényelve az olcsó energia növekvő kínálatát.

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Annyira függünk az olajtól és egyéb fosszilis energiahordozóktól,

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hogy még egy apró zavar az ellátásban is

0:07:07.154,0:07:10.405
messzemenő következményekkel járna, életünk minden tekintetében.

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ENERGIA

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A munkavégzéshez energia szükséges.

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Ma egy átlagos amerikai, 150 rabszolga 24 órás munkájával egyenlő energiát vesz igénybe.

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Azok az anyagok amelyek ezt az energiát tárolják a munkához, üzemanyagnak hívjuk.

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Néhány üzemanyag több energiát tárol mint a többi.

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Ezt hívják energiasűrűségnek.

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Ezek közöl az olaj a legkritikusabb.

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A világ éves kőolaj fogyasztása 30 milliárd hordó,

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ez 1 köbmérföld olajjal egyenlő,

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amely annyi energiát tartalmaz,

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amit 52 nukleáris erőmű tudna megtermelni

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a következő 50 évig.

0:08:03.008,0:08:07.000
Habár olajjal csupán az elektromosáram 1,6%-át termelik,

0:08:07.573,0:08:10.573
ez látja el energiával a közlekedés 96 százalékát.

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2008-ban, Amerika olajkészletének 2/3-a importból származott.

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A legtöbb Kanadából,

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Mexikóból,

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Szaúd Arábiából,

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Venezuelából,

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Nigériából, Irakból és Angólából ment.

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Több tényező teszi az olajat különlegessé:

0:08:29.360,0:08:31.250
energiában gazdag.

0:08:33.029,0:08:34.900
Egyetlen hordó olaj annyi energiát tartalmaz, amely megegyezik

0:08:34.910,0:08:37.248
csaknem 3 évnyi emberi munkával.

0:08:38.500,0:08:39.600
Szobahőmérsékleten folyékony halmazállapotú,

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könnyű szállítani,

0:08:41.845,0:08:44.051
és használható kis motorokban.

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Ahhoz, hogy hozzájuss az energiához, energiát kell felhasználnod.

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Az a trükk, hogy kisebb energia mennyiséggel találnak és nyernek ki nagyobb energia mennyiséget.

0:08:53.208,0:08:55.625
Ezt hívják EROEI-nak:

0:08:55.625,0:08:59.376
Energy Return on Energy Invested (Energetikai megtérülés)

0:09:01.500,0:09:04.010
Hagyományosan, az olaj egy jó példa erre.

0:09:04.010,0:09:07.573
A könnyen feldolgozható, magas minőségű nyersolaj lett először kitermelve.

0:09:08.900,0:09:14.600
Az olaj mágnás 1 hordó olaj energiájának befektetésével talált meg és dolgozott fel 100 hordó olajat.

0:09:15.040,0:09:18.500
Az olaj EROEI-je 100 volt.

0:09:19.087,0:09:21.000
Amint legelőször a könnyen hozzáférhető olajat ktermelték,

0:09:21.100,0:09:23.900
a kutatások áthelyeződtek a mély tengerekre,

0:09:23.952,0:09:25.731
vagy a távoli országokba,

0:09:25.731,0:09:28.796
egyre több energia felhasználásával.

0:09:29.091,0:09:32.000
Gyakran az olaj, amit ma találunk, nehéz vagy savanyú nyersolaj

0:09:32.000,0:09:34.647
és ennek drága a finomítása.

0:09:35.900,0:09:39.617
Az EROEI értéke ma az olajnak alacsonyabb mint 10.

0:09:40.033,0:09:43.833
Ha több energiát használsz el az üzemanyag kinyerésére mint amennyi energiát az tartalmaz,

0:09:43.833,0:09:46.768
akkor az nem éri meg az erőfeszítést.

0:09:50.010,0:09:52.736
Lehetőség van rá, hogy egy üzemanyagforrást átalakítsunk egy másikra.

0:09:53.500,0:09:54.050
Minden alkalommal amikor így teszünk,

0:09:54.200,0:09:58.239
valamennyi energia elveszlik az eredeti üzemanyagból.

0:09:59.028,0:10:00.900
For instance, there is unconventional oil:

0:10:00.950,0:10:03.417
Tar Sands and Shale.

0:10:04.027,0:10:06.600
Tar Sands are found mainly in Canada.

0:10:07.000,0:10:09.900
Two thirds of the world's shale is in the US.

0:10:11.091,0:10:13.600
Both of these fuels can be converted to synthetic crude oil.

0:10:13.610,0:10:17.090
However, this requires large amounts of heat and fresh water,

0:10:17.100,0:10:18.900
reducing their EROEI,

0:10:18.905,0:10:23.015
which varies from five, to as low as one and a half.

0:10:24.500,0:10:26.000
Shale is an exceptionally poor fuel,

0:10:26.200,0:10:29.150
pound for pound containing about one third the energy

0:10:29.151,0:10:31.100
of a box of breakfast cereal.

0:10:33.033,0:10:34.700
Coal exists in vast quantities,

0:10:34.705,0:10:38.317
and generates almost half of the planet's electricity.

0:10:39.000,0:10:41.400
The world uses almost 2 cubic miles of coal a year.

0:10:41.500,0:10:46.875
However, Global coal production may peak before 2040.

0:10:48.083,0:10:50.750
The claim that America has centuries worth of coal is deceptive,

0:10:50.750,0:10:55.940
as it fails to account for growing demand, and decreasing quality.

0:10:56.059,0:10:58.667
Much of the high quality anthracite coal is gone,

0:10:58.667,0:11:03.115
leaving lower quality coal that is less energy dense.

0:11:04.056,0:11:06.700
Production issues arise, as surface coal is depleted,

0:11:06.700,0:11:10.801
and miners have to dig deeper and in less accessible areas.

0:11:11.100,0:11:14.300
Many use destructive mountaintop removal to reach coal deposits,

0:11:14.301,0:11:17.047
causing environmental mayhem.

0:11:20.014,0:11:22.760
Natural gas is often found alongside oil and coal.

0:11:24.000,0:11:27.400
North American discovery of conventional gas peaked in the 1950s,

0:11:27.401,0:11:30.283
and production peaked in the early 70s.

0:11:31.029,0:11:34.125
If the discovery graph is moved forward by 23 years,

0:11:34.125,0:11:38.600
the possible future of North American conventional natural gas production

0:11:38.601,0:11:40.000
is revealed.

0:11:41.044,0:11:44.792
Recent breakthroughs have allowed the extraction of unconventional natural gas,

0:11:44.792,0:11:50.066
such as shale gas, which might help offset decline in the years ahead.

0:11:51.044,0:11:54.200
Unconventional natural gas is controversial,

0:11:54.202,0:11:57.566
as it needs high energy prices to be profitable.

0:11:58.061,0:11:59.750
Even with Unconventional gas,

0:11:59.750,0:12:05.229
there may be a peak in global natural gas production by 2030.

0:12:07.900,0:12:10.917
Large uranium reserves for nuclear fission still exist.

0:12:12.027,0:12:15.833
To replace the 10 terawatts the world currently generates from fossil fuels,

0:12:15.833,0:12:19.230
would require 10,000 nuclear power plants.

0:12:19.250,0:12:24.300
At that rate, the known reserves of uranium would last for only 10 to 20 years.

0:12:25.000,0:12:29.083
Experiments with plutonium based fast-breeder reactors

0:12:29.083,0:12:31.107
in France and Japan

0:12:31.108,0:12:33.440
have been expensive failures.

0:12:33.687,0:12:37.737
Nuclear fusion faces massive technical obstacles.

0:12:39.022,0:12:40.300
Then there are the renewables.

0:12:40.302,0:12:45.353
Windpower has a high EROEI, but is intermittent.

0:12:45.600,0:12:47.400
Hydro power is reliable,

0:12:47.405,0:12:50.856
but most rivers in the developed world are already dammed.

0:12:52.035,0:12:54.002
Conventional geothermal power plants

0:12:54.003,0:12:56.900
use existing hotspots near the Earth's surface.

0:12:57.000,0:12:59.583
They are limited to those areas.

0:13:01.029,0:13:02.750
In the experimental EGS system,

0:13:02.750,0:13:06.042
two shafts would be drilled 6 miles deep.

0:13:06.043,0:13:09.167
Water is pumped down one shaft, to be heated in fissures,

0:13:09.167,0:13:12.451
then rise up the other, generating power.

0:13:13.091,0:13:15.300
According to a recent MIT report,

0:13:15.301,0:13:21.181
this technology might supply 10% of US electricity by 2050.

0:13:22.091,0:13:25.333
Wave power is restricted to coastal areas.

0:13:25.333,0:13:29.400
The energy density of waves varies from region to region.

0:13:31.014,0:13:35.092
Transporting wave-generated electricity inland would be challenging.

0:13:35.092,0:13:38.792
Also, the salty ocean environment is corrosive to turbines.

0:13:41.004,0:13:42.708
Biofuels are fuels that are grown.

0:13:43.095,0:13:46.445
Wood has a low energy density, and grows slowly.

0:13:46.445,0:13:49.958
The world uses 3.7 cubic miles of wood a year.

0:13:51.437,0:13:52.917
Biodiesel and ethanol

0:13:52.917,0:13:57.033
are made from crops grown by petroleum powered agriculture.

0:13:57.500,0:14:00.792
The energy profit from these fuels is very low.

0:14:02.010,0:14:05.091
Some politicians want to turn corn into ethanol.

0:14:05.091,0:14:10.208
Using Ethanol to supply one tenth of projected US oil use in 2020,

0:14:10.208,0:14:13.603
would require 3% of America's Land.

0:14:15.014,0:14:19.083
To supply one third would require 3 times the area now used to grow food.

0:14:20.031,0:14:23.333
To supply all US petroleum consumption in 2020

0:14:23.333,0:14:27.080
would take twice as much land as is used to grow food.

0:14:28.862,0:14:33.500
Hydrogen has to be extracted from Natural Gas, coal or water,

0:14:33.500,0:14:36.917
which uses more energy than we get from the Hydrogen.

0:14:36.917,0:14:39.600
This makes a Hydrogen economy unlikely.

0:14:42.500,0:14:45.625
All the world's photovoltaic solar panels generate as much electricity

0:14:45.625,0:14:47.800
as two coal power plants.

0:14:48.800,0:14:51.000
The equivalent of between 1 and 4 tons of coal

0:14:51.003,0:14:54.400
are used in the manufacture of a single solar panel.

0:14:56.100,0:15:00.000
We'd have to cover as many as 140,000 square miles with panels

0:15:00.000,0:15:02.118
to meet current world demand.

0:15:02.300,0:15:06.700
As of 2007, there are only about 4 square miles.

0:15:08.600,0:15:12.042
Concentrated Solar Power, or Solar Thermal has great potential,

0:15:12.042,0:15:16.250
though at the moment there are only a small number of plants operating.

0:15:17.900,0:15:19.150
They are also limited to sunny climates,

0:15:19.300,0:15:21.500
requiring large amounts of electricity

0:15:21.501,0:15:24.433
to be transmitted over long distances.

0:15:26.054,0:15:29.458
All of the alternatives to oil depend on oil-powered machinery,

0:15:29.458,0:15:34.371
or require materials such as plastics that are produced from oil.

0:15:36.037,0:15:38.890
When considering future claims of amazing new fuels or inventions,

0:15:38.900,0:15:40.042
ask:

0:15:40.087,0:15:44.200
Does the advocate have a working, commercial model of the invention?

0:15:45.000,0:15:46.875
What is its energy density?

0:15:47.500,0:15:49.958
Can it be stored or easily distributed?

0:15:51.004,0:15:53.083
Is it reliable or intermittent?

0:15:53.083,0:15:56.000
Can it be scaled to a national level?

0:15:56.300,0:15:58.800
Are there hidden engineering challenges?

0:15:59.800,0:16:02.095
What is the EROEI?

0:16:02.095,0:16:04.700
What are the environmental impacts?

0:16:04.901,0:16:07.700
Remember that large numbers can be deceptive.

0:16:08.044,0:16:09.900
For example: 1 billion barrels of oil

0:16:09.901,0:16:13.868
will satisfy global demand for only 12 days.

0:16:15.058,0:16:19.000
A transition from fossil fuels would be a monumental challenge.

0:16:19.700,0:16:24.417
As of 2007, coal generates 48.5% of U.S. electricity.

0:16:24.417,0:16:27.289
21.6% is from natural gas,

0:16:27.289,0:16:30.215
1.6% is from petroleum,

0:16:30.215,0:16:32.676
19.4% is from nuclear,

0:16:32.676,0:16:34.900
5.8% is from hydro.

0:16:35.087,0:16:39.000
Other renewables only generate 2.5%.

0:16:40.037,0:16:43.125
Is it possible to replace a system based on fossil fuels

0:16:43.125,0:16:45.700
with a patchwork of alternatives?

0:16:46.400,0:16:48.700
Major technological advances are needed,

0:16:48.900,0:16:51.500
as well as political will and co-operation,

0:16:51.900,0:16:53.400
massive investment,

0:16:53.542,0:16:55.500
international consensus,

0:16:56.050,0:16:59.300
the retrofitting of the $45 trillion global economy,

0:16:59.301,0:17:01.668
including transportation,

0:17:02.027,0:17:03.000
manufacturing industries,

0:17:03.001,0:17:05.083
and agricultural systems,

0:17:05.083,0:17:08.700
as well as officials competent to manage the transition.

0:17:10.000,0:17:11.523
If all these are achieved,

0:17:11.523,0:17:14.523
could the current way of life continue?

0:17:19.004,0:17:21.009
Growth

0:17:21.009,0:17:23.300
These bacteria live in a bottle.

0:17:24.008,0:17:25.800
Their population doubles every minute.

0:17:27.000,0:17:29.300
At 11AM there is one bacterium.

0:17:30.087,0:17:32.100
At 12 noon the bottle is full.

0:17:33.081,0:17:35.295
It is half-full at 11.59

0:17:35.295,0:17:37.985
leaving only enough space for one more doubling.

0:17:38.900,0:17:41.033
The bacteria see the danger.

0:17:41.033,0:17:44.056
They search for new bottles, and find 3.

0:17:44.056,0:17:47.083
They assume that their problem is solved.

0:17:47.083,0:17:49.600
By 12 noon, the first bottle is full.

0:17:50.000,0:17:53.136
By 12.01, the second bottle is full.

0:17:54.000,0:17:56.820
By 12.02, all the bottles are full.

0:17:57.900,0:17:59.928
This is the problem that we face,

0:17:59.928,0:18:03.200
due to the doubling caused by Exponential Growth.

0:18:06.061,0:18:09.280
When humanity began to use coal and oil as fuel sources,

0:18:09.280,0:18:12.700
it experienced unprecedented growth.

0:18:14.029,0:18:17.326
Even low growth rates produce large increases over time.

0:18:18.600,0:18:20.100
At a 1% growth rate,

0:18:20.150,0:18:22.900
an economy will double in 70 years.

0:18:23.500,0:18:27.087
A 2% rate doubles in 35 years.

0:18:27.087,0:18:29.264
At a 10% growth rate,

0:18:29.264,0:18:32.350
an economy will double in only 7 years.

0:18:33.400,0:18:36.750
If an economy grows at the current average of 3%,

0:18:36.750,0:18:39.750
it doubles every 23 years.

0:18:40.600,0:18:44.023
With each doubling, demand for energy and resources

0:18:44.023,0:18:47.023
will exceed all the previous doublings combined.

0:18:48.079,0:18:52.050
The financial system is built on the assumption of growth

0:18:52.050,0:18:55.778
- which requires an increasing supply of energy to support it.

0:18:56.700,0:18:58.469
Banks lend money they don't have,

0:18:58.469,0:19:00.600
in effect creating it.

0:19:01.000,0:19:04.816
The borrowers use the newly created loan money to grow their businesses,

0:19:04.816,0:19:06.200
and pay back the debt,

0:19:06.204,0:19:09.384
with an interest payment which requires more growth.

0:19:10.500,0:19:13.019
Due to this creation of debt formed money,

0:19:13.019,0:19:17.616
most of the world's money represents a debt with interest to be paid.

0:19:19.056,0:19:22.100
Without continual new and ever larger generations

0:19:22.101,0:19:24.200
of borrowers to produce growth,

0:19:24.500,0:19:25.871
and thus pay off these debts,

0:19:25.871,0:19:28.300
the world economy will collapse.

0:19:30.010,0:19:31.148
Like a Ponzi Scheme,

0:19:31.148,0:19:34.148
the system must expand or die.

0:19:35.500,0:19:37.450
Partly through this debt system,

0:19:37.500,0:19:40.400
the effects of economic growth have been spectacular:

0:19:40.800,0:19:41.600
in GDP,

0:19:41.601,0:19:43.112
damming of rivers,

0:19:43.112,0:19:44.150
water use,

0:19:44.183,0:19:46.456
fertiliser consumption,

0:19:46.456,0:19:47.762
urban population,

0:19:47.762,0:19:49.669
paper consumption,

0:19:49.669,0:19:51.105
motor vehicles,

0:19:51.105,0:19:52.411
communications

0:19:52.411,0:19:54.100
and tourism.

0:19:55.068,0:19:57.453
World population has grown to 7 billion,

0:19:57.453,0:20:01.189
and is expected to exceed 9 billion by 2050.

0:20:02.041,0:20:05.500
On a flat, infinite earth, this would not be a problem.

0:20:06.300,0:20:08.686
However, as the Earth is round and finite,

0:20:08.686,0:20:11.686
we will eventually face limits to growth.

0:20:13.084,0:20:14.302
Economic expansion

0:20:14.302,0:20:18.300
has resulted in increases in atmospheric nitrous oxide

0:20:18.301,0:20:19.100
and methane,

0:20:19.101,0:20:20.702
ozone depletion,

0:20:20.870,0:20:22.833
increases in great floods,

0:20:22.833,0:20:25.833
damage to ocean ecosystems,

0:20:25.874,0:20:27.703
including nitrogen runoff,

0:20:27.703,0:20:30.759
loss of rainforest and woodland,

0:20:30.759,0:20:33.110
increases in domesticated land,

0:20:33.110,0:20:36.110
and species exinctions.

0:20:38.052,0:20:40.200
If we place a single grain of rice

0:20:40.201,0:20:42.070
on the first square of a chessboard,

0:20:42.070,0:20:45.200
double this and place 2 grains on the second,

0:20:46.014,0:20:48.600
double again and place 4 on the third,

0:20:49.100,0:20:51.470
double again and place 8 on the fourth,

0:20:51.500,0:20:52.650
and continue this way,

0:20:52.650,0:20:55.471
putting on each square twice the number of grains

0:20:55.471,0:20:57.100
than were on the previous one,

0:20:57.101,0:20:59.001
by the time we reach the final square,

0:20:59.002,0:21:01.244
we need an astronomical number of grains:

0:21:03.800,0:21:05.215
9 quintillion,

0:21:05.215,0:21:07.435
223 quadrillion,

0:21:07.435,0:21:09.290
372 trillion,

0:21:09.290,0:21:11.275
36 billion,

0:21:11.275,0:21:13.051
854 million,

0:21:13.051,0:21:16.552
776 thousand grains:

0:21:17.044,0:21:18.563
more grain than the human race

0:21:18.563,0:21:21.563
has grown in the last 10,000 years.

0:21:22.900,0:21:23.709
Modern economies,

0:21:23.709,0:21:25.407
like the grains on the chess board,

0:21:25.407,0:21:27.300
doubles every few decades.

0:21:27.700,0:21:30.600
On which square of the chessboard are we?

0:21:33.087,0:21:34.759
Besides energy,

0:21:34.759,0:21:37.659
civilisation demands numerous essential resources:

0:21:37.950,0:21:39.252
fresh water,

0:21:39.252,0:21:40.480
topsoil,

0:21:40.480,0:21:41.316
food,

0:21:41.316,0:21:42.126
forests,

0:21:42.126,0:21:44.500
and many kinds of minerals and metals.

0:21:45.087,0:21:46.150
Growth is limited

0:21:46.151,0:21:49.208
by the essential resource in scarcest supply.

0:21:51.400,0:21:52.313
A barrel is made of staves,

0:21:52.313,0:21:54.978
and like water filling a barrel,

0:21:54.978,0:21:57.792
growth can go no further than the lowest stave,

0:21:57.792,0:22:00.900
or the most limited essential resource.

0:22:02.300,0:22:03.833
Humans currently utilise

0:22:03.833,0:22:07.300
40% of all photosynthesis n Earth.

0:22:08.021,0:22:09.737
Though it might be possible to use 80%,

0:22:09.737,0:22:13.500
we are unlikely to ever use 160%.

0:22:23.242,0:22:25.900
FOOD

0:22:27.000,0:22:28.180
The global food supply

0:22:28.180,0:22:29.900
relies heavily on fossil fuels.

0:22:32.040,0:22:33.143
Before WW1,

0:22:33.143,0:22:35.468
all agriculture was Organic.

0:22:36.040,0:22:39.804
Following the invention of fossil fuel derived fertilisers and pesticides

0:22:39.804,0:22:42.500
there were massive improvements in food production,

0:22:42.600,0:22:45.300
allowing for increases in human population.

0:22:48.095,0:22:49.391
The use of artificial fertilisers

0:22:49.391,0:22:51.600
has fed far more people than would have been possible

0:22:51.601,0:22:54.875
with organic agriculture alone.

0:22:56.050,0:22:58.351
Fossil fuels are needed for farming equipment,

0:22:58.351,0:22:59.814
transportation,

0:22:59.750,0:23:00.708
refrigeration,

0:23:01.068,0:23:02.557
packaging - in plastic,

0:23:02.557,0:23:04.673
and cooking.

0:23:05.000,0:23:08.878
Modern agriculture uses land to turn fossil fuels into food

0:23:08.878,0:23:10.600
- and food into people.

0:23:12.004,0:23:13.920
About 7 calories of fossil-fuel energy

0:23:13.920,0:23:16.920
are used to produce 1 calorie of food.

0:23:19.300,0:23:25.022
In America, food travels approximately 1,500 miles from farm to customer.

0:23:30.083,0:23:31.527
Besides fossil fuel decline,

0:23:31.527,0:23:34.896
there are several threats to the current system of food production:

0:23:35.200,0:23:36.333
Cheap energy,

0:23:36.333,0:23:37.927
improved technology

0:23:37.927,0:23:41.349
and subsidies have allowed massive fish catches.

0:23:43.091,0:23:45.708
Global fish catches peaked in the late nineteen eighties,

0:23:45.708,0:23:48.708
forcing fishermen to move into deep waters.

0:23:53.083,0:23:55.716
Nitrogen run off by fossil fuel based fertilisers

0:23:55.716,0:23:59.500
poisons rivers and seas, creating enormous dead zones.

0:24:00.500,0:24:01.306
At this rate,

0:24:01.306,0:24:03.971
all fish populations are projected to collapse

0:24:03.971,0:24:05.930
by 2048.

0:24:07.091,0:24:11.311
Acid rain from cities and industries leeches the soil of vital nutrients,

0:24:11.311,0:24:12.356
such as potassium,

0:24:12.356,0:24:13.218
calcium,

0:24:13.218,0:24:14.500
and magnesium.

0:24:18.027,0:24:20.095
Another threat is a lack of water.

0:24:20.200,0:24:25.200
Many farms use water pumped from underground aquifers for irrigation.

0:24:26.050,0:24:28.891
The aquifers need thousands of years to fill up,

0:24:28.891,0:24:30.772
but can be pumped dry in a few decades,

0:24:30.772,0:24:32.600
like oil wells.

0:24:34.029,0:24:36.911
America's massive Ogallala aquifer has fallen so low

0:24:36.911,0:24:40.750
that many farmers have had to return to less productive dry-land farming.

0:24:42.056,0:24:46.576
Additionally, The use of irrigation and fertilisers can lead to salinisation:

0:24:47.000,0:24:48.600
the accumulation of salt in the soil.

0:24:49.300,0:24:51.500
This is a major cause of desertification.

0:24:53.078,0:24:56.100
Still another threat is topsoil loss.

0:24:56.500,0:24:57.652
200 years ago,

0:24:57.652,0:25:00.600
there were 6 feet of topsoil on the American prairies.

0:25:01.100,0:25:03.333
Today, through tillage and poor practices,

0:25:03.333,0:25:06.333
approximately half is gone.

0:25:08.800,0:25:13.273
Irrigation encourages the growth of stem rust fungi like UG-99

0:25:13.273,0:25:17.700
- which has the potential to destroy 80% of the world's grain harvest.

0:25:19.010,0:25:20.083
According to Norman Borlaug,

0:25:20.083,0:25:22.207
father of the Green Revolution,

0:25:22.300,0:25:27.902
stem rust "has immense potential for social and human destruction."

0:25:29.079,0:25:32.000
The use of biofuels means that less land

0:25:32.001,0:25:35.108
will be available for food production.

0:25:37.054,0:25:39.200
An area has a finite carrying capacity.

0:25:40.000,0:25:41.642
This is the number of animals or people

0:25:41.642,0:25:43.800
that can live there indefinitely.

0:25:44.083,0:25:47.494
If a species overshoots the carrying capacity of that area,

0:25:47.494,0:25:51.700
it will die back until the population returns to its natural limits.

0:25:53.029,0:25:54.167
The world has avoided this die-off

0:25:54.167,0:25:56.400
by finding new lands to cultivate,

0:25:56.400,0:25:57.875
or by increasing production,

0:25:57.875,0:26:00.980
which has been possible largely thanks to oil.

0:26:01.000,0:26:03.638
To continue growth,

0:26:03.638,0:26:06.900
more resources are required than the Earth can provide,

0:26:07.091,0:26:09.900
but no new planets are available.

0:26:11.079,0:26:13.251
In the face of all these challenges,

0:26:13.300,0:26:16.417
global food production must double by 2050

0:26:16.301,0:26:18.900
to feed the growing world population.

0:26:21.044,0:26:23.667
1 billion people are already malnourished or starving.

0:26:24.200,0:26:27.600
There will be challenges in feeding over 9 billion in the years to come,

0:26:28.094,0:26:31.900
when world oil and natural gas production will be in decline.

0:26:41.054,0:26:42.600
HAPPY ENDING

0:26:45.988,0:26:48.100
The global economy grows exponentially,

0:26:48.101,0:26:50.000
at about 3% a year,

0:26:50.056,0:26:53.270
consuming increasing amounts of non-renewable fuels,

0:26:53.270,0:26:54.900
minerals and metals,

0:26:54.901,0:26:56.849
as well as renewable resources

0:26:56.849,0:27:00.271
like water, forests, soils and fish

0:27:00.280,0:27:02.335
faster than they can be replenished.

0:27:03.900,0:27:05.574
Even at a growth rate of 1%,

0:27:05.574,0:27:08.200
an economy will double in 70 years.

0:27:10.016,0:27:13.058
The problem is intensified by other factors:

0:27:13.058,0:27:15.500
Globalisation allows people on one continent

0:27:15.500,0:27:18.500
to buy goods and food made by those on another.

0:27:19.095,0:27:20.751
The lines of supply are long,

0:27:20.751,0:27:23.751
placing strains on a limited oil resource.

0:27:26.057,0:27:29.333
We now rely on distant countries for basic necessities.

0:27:30.700,0:27:32.800
Modern cities are fossil fuel dependent.

0:27:34.033,0:27:36.600
Most Banking Systems are based on debt,

0:27:36.650,0:27:40.029
forcing people into a spiral of loans and repayments

0:27:40.200,0:27:41.800
- producing growth.

0:27:43.095,0:27:46.200
What can be done in the face of these problems?

0:27:47.029,0:27:48.600
Many believe that the crisis can be prevented

0:27:48.600,0:27:50.250
through conservation,

0:27:50.251,0:27:51.079
technology,

0:27:51.079,0:27:52.568
smart growth,

0:27:52.568,0:27:53.800
recycling,

0:27:53.801,0:27:55.100
electric cars and hybrids,

0:27:55.101,0:27:57.061
substitution,

0:27:57.061,0:27:58.300
or voting.

0:28:00.091,0:28:01.371
Conservation will save you money,

0:28:01.371,0:28:03.696
but it alone won't save the planet.

0:28:05.000,0:28:07.250
If some people cut back on oil use,

0:28:07.300,0:28:09.900
the reduced demand will drive down the price,

0:28:09.901,0:28:12.167
allowing others to buy it for less.

0:28:13.000,0:28:13.583
In the same fashion,

0:28:13.583,0:28:17.400
a more efficient engine that uses less energy will,

0:28:17.401,0:28:20.900
paradoxically, lead to greater energy use.

0:28:21.900,0:28:22.896
In the 19th century,

0:28:22.896,0:28:25.535
English economist William Stanley Jevons

0:28:25.535,0:28:28.100
realised that Better steam engines made coal

0:28:28.101,0:28:31.000
a more cost effective fuel source,

0:28:31.001,0:28:32.797
which led to the use of more steam engines,

0:28:32.797,0:28:35.800
which increased total coal consumption.

0:28:37.087,0:28:40.200
Growth of use will consume any energy or resources

0:28:40.201,0:28:42.400
saved through conservation.

0:28:48.029,0:28:48.708
Many believe that scientists

0:28:48.708,0:28:51.990
will solve these problems with new technology.

0:28:52.500,0:28:55.105
However, technology is not energy.

0:28:56.048,0:28:57.900
Technology can channel energy into work,

0:28:57.901,0:28:59.500
but it can't replace it.

0:29:00.300,0:29:02.393
It also consumes resources:

0:29:02.393,0:29:03.042
for instance;

0:29:03.042,0:29:04.750
computers are made with one tenth

0:29:04.751,0:29:07.708
of the energy needed to make a car.

0:29:08.872,0:29:10.250
More advanced technologies

0:29:10.251,0:29:12.150
may make the situation worse,

0:29:12.151,0:29:14.436
as many require rare minerals,

0:29:14.436,0:29:16.200
which are also approaching limits.

0:29:17.058,0:29:17.832
For example,

0:29:17.832,0:29:21.724
97% of the world's Rare Earths are produced by China,

0:29:21.724,0:29:24.800
most from a single mine in inner Mongolia.

0:29:26.500,0:29:28.833
These minerals are used in catalytic converters,

0:29:28.833,0:29:30.542
aircraft engines,

0:29:30.542,0:29:33.250
high efficiency magnets and hard drives,

0:29:33.250,0:29:35.151
hybrid car batteries,

0:29:35.151,0:29:36.353
lasers,

0:29:36.353,0:29:37.583
portable X-Rays,

0:29:37.583,0:29:39.801
shielding for nuclear reactors,

0:29:39.801,0:29:41.708
compact discs,

0:29:41.708,0:29:43.550
hybrid vehicle motors,

0:29:43.551,0:29:45.313
low energy light-bulbs,

0:29:45.313,0:29:46.567
fibre optics

0:29:46.567,0:29:48.200
and flat-screen displays.

0:29:49.083,0:29:52.549
China has begun to consider restricting the export of these minerals,

0:29:52.549,0:29:54.300
as demand soars.

0:29:57.083,0:30:00.750
So called sustainable growth or smart growth won't help,

0:30:00.750,0:30:03.700
as it also uses non renewable metals and minerals

0:30:03.701,0:30:05.375
in ever increasing quantities,

0:30:05.375,0:30:07.517
including Rare Earths.

0:30:08.900,0:30:10.500
Recycling will not solve the problem,

0:30:10.501,0:30:11.582
as it requires energy,

0:30:11.583,0:30:14.400
and the process is not 100% efficient.

0:30:16.010,0:30:19.820
It is only possible to reclaim a fraction of the material being recycled;

0:30:19.820,0:30:22.820
a large portion is lost forever as waste.

0:30:25.056,0:30:27.600
Electric cars run on electricity.

0:30:28.054,0:30:30.557
As most power is generated from fossil fuels,

0:30:30.557,0:30:32.600
this is not a solution.

0:30:33.095,0:30:37.270
Also, cars of all types consume oil in their production.

0:30:37.270,0:30:41.200
Each tire alone requires about 7 gallons of Petroleum.

0:30:43.040,0:30:47.333
There are around 800 million cars in the world, as of 2010.

0:30:47.400,0:30:49.042
At current growth rates,

0:30:49.042,0:30:52.950
this number would reach 2 billion by 2025.

0:30:53.900,0:30:57.200
It is unlikely that the planet can support this many vehicles for long,

0:30:57.201,0:30:59.800
regardless of their power source.

0:31:01.031,0:31:02.500
Many economists believe

0:31:02.687,0:31:05.326
that the free market will substitute one energy source

0:31:05.326,0:31:07.400
with another through technological innovation.

0:31:08.100,0:31:10.200
However, the main substitutes to oil

0:31:10.201,0:31:12.292
face their own decline rates.

0:31:13.900,0:31:18.570
Substitution also fails to account for the time needed to prepare for a transition.

0:31:20.000,0:31:21.833
The U.S. Department of Energy's Hirsch report

0:31:21.833,0:31:25.350
estimates that at least 2 decades would be needed to prepare

0:31:25.351,0:31:27.900
for the effects of Peak Oil.

0:31:28.900,0:31:31.170
The issues of energy shortages,

0:31:31.171,0:31:33.068
resource depletion,

0:31:33.068,0:31:34.750
topsoil loss,

0:31:34.750,0:31:39.180
and pollution are all symptoms of a single, larger problem:

0:31:40.500,0:31:42.500
Growth.

0:31:43.700,0:31:46.333
As long as our financial system demands endless growth,

0:31:46.333,0:31:49.300
reform is unlikely to succeed.

0:31:49.927,0:31:52.542
What then, will the future look like?

0:31:54.033,0:31:56.375
Optimists believe that growth will continue forever,

0:31:56.375,0:31:57.806
without limits.

0:31:59.044,0:32:02.125
Pessimists think that we're heading towards a new Stone Age,

0:32:02.125,0:32:04.100
or extinction.

0:32:05.031,0:32:06.417
The truth may lie between these extremes.

0:32:07.417,0:32:11.964
It is possible that society might fall back to a simpler state,

0:32:12.100,0:32:14.792
one in which energy use is a lot less.

0:32:16.029,0:32:18.095
This would mean a harder life for most.

0:32:18.095,0:32:18.708
More manual labour,

0:32:18.708,0:32:20.417
more farm work,

0:32:20.417,0:32:24.111
and local production of goods, food and services.

0:32:25.079,0:32:28.500
What should a person do to prepare for such a possible future?

0:32:29.083,0:32:33.292
Expect a decrease in supplies of food and goods from far away places.

0:32:34.104,0:32:35.762
Start walking or cycling.

0:32:36.500,0:32:39.079
Get used to using less electricity.

0:32:40.029,0:32:41.100
Get out of debt.

0:32:41.900,0:32:42.893
Try to avoid banks.

0:32:43.400,0:32:45.300
Instead of shopping at big box stores,

0:32:45.301,0:32:48.095
support local businesses.

0:32:48.150,0:32:51.600
Buy food grown locally, at Farmers' Markets.

0:32:51.601,0:32:55.417
Instead of a lawn, consider gardening to grow your own food.

0:32:55.450,0:32:57.100
Learn how to preserve it.

0:32:58.400,0:33:00.000
Consider the use of local currencies

0:33:00.000,0:33:02.500
should the larger economy cease to function,

0:33:02.500,0:33:05.500
and develop greater self sufficiency.

0:33:07.016,0:33:08.500
None of these steps will prevent Collapse,

0:33:08.500,0:33:12.500
but they might improve your chances in a low energy future,

0:33:13.091,0:33:15.417
one in which we will have to be more self reliant,

0:33:15.417,0:33:18.417
as our ancestors once were.