OEB 2015 - Tomorrow's New World: Extending the Reach of Learning - Toby Walsh

(Metadata: Geo = YouTube automatic English captions for editing. Update: actually a waste of time in this case, because the software skipped too much, so I'll transfer what is edited as incomplete English captions)

Toby Walsh - Professor of Artificial Intelligence at the University of New South Wales - Australia

How can we ensure that education is ready to prepare learners for the future? And how can we create new learning environments which enhance the benefit of education? Learn about the latest theories, new digital solutions, policies, strategies, research and insights, as our expert speakers shared their enthusiasm for tomorrow’s new world of learning.

More info: http://bit.ly/1NgVtia

(Toby Walsh) I wanna talk
about artificial intelligence: it's --

I'm a professor of artificial intelligence

and its a great time, 2015,
to be working in AI.

We're making real palpable progress

and there's loads of money
being thrown at us.

Google just spent
five hundred million dollars --

pounds buying an AI startup called Deep Mind a couple of weeks ago,

today they announced that they were
going to spend a billion dollars

setting up an AI lab in Silicon Valley.

IBM is betting about
a third of the company

on their cognitive AI computing effort.

So it's really interesting time to be working in AI.

But the first thing I wanted to
help inform you about

is what is the state of art,
what progress have we made in AI

because Hollywood paints
all these pictures,

these mostly dystopian pictures of AI.

Whenever the next science fiction movie
comes out, I put my head in my hands

and think Oh my God, what do people think
that we're doing?

So, I wanted to start by just giving you
a feel for what actually is really capable.

So a couple of years ago, IBM Watson
won the game show Jeopardy 1,

the million dollar prize in the game show,
Jeopardy P, the reigning human champions.

Now, you might think, well that's just
a party trick, isn't it?

It's a -- pour enough of Wikipedia
and the internet into a computer,

and it can answer general knowledge
questions.

Well, you guys are being a bit unfair to
IBM Watson,

there are the cryptic questions
they are answering.

But just to give you a real feel for
what is technically possible today,

something that was announced
just two days ago:

some colleagues of mine at NII in Japan
passed the University Entrance Exam

with an AI program.

Now, I thought long and hard about
putting up a page of maths.

I thought, well, I'm going to get --

half of the audience is going to leave
immediately if I put up a page of math

But I wanted you to see, just to feel

the depth of questions
that they are answering.

So this is from the maths paper, you know,
a non trivial, sort of,

if you come from the UK,
A-level-like math question

that they were able to answer

Here is a physics question
about Newtonian dynamics

that they were able to answer.

Now they got 511 points, out of
a maximum of 950.

That's more than the average score
of Japanese students

sitting the entrance exam.

They would have got into most
Japanese universities with a score of 511.

That's what's possible today.

Their ambition in 10 years' time is to get
into Tokyo, University of Tokyo,

which is one of the best universities
in the world.

So, this is why I put up
a picture of Terminator,

because whenever I talk to the media
about what we do in AI,

they put up a picture of Terminator,
right?

So I don't want you to worry
about Terminator,

Terminator is at least
50 to 100 years away.

and there are lots of reasons why
we don't have to worry about it,

about Terminator.

I'm not going to go and spend
too much time

on why you don't have to worry about Terminator.

But there is actually things
that you should worry about,

much nearer than Terminator.

Many people have said,
Stephen Hawkins has said

that, you know, AI is going to spell
the end of the human race.

Elon Musk chimed in afterwards, said
"It's our biggest existential threat."

Bill Gates followed on by saying,
"Elon Musk was right."

Lots of people have said that's a --
AI is a real existential threat to us.

I don't want you to worry about
the existential threat that AI

or Terminator is going to bring.

There's actually a very common confusion,

which is that it's not the AI
that's going to be the existential threat,

it's autonomy, it's autonomous systems.

What's in the (check) --

it isn't it going to wake up
any time in the morning and say:

"You know what? I'm tired
of playing Jeopardy,

"I want to play Who Wants to Be a Millionaire!

"Or wait a second, I'm tired of playing
game shows,

I want to take over the universe."

It's just not in its code, there is no way,

it's not given any freedom to think
about anything other

than maximizing its Jeopardy score.

And it has no desires, no other desires than,

other to improve its maximum scores.

So I don't want you to worry about Terminator,

but I do want you to worry about jobs.

Because lots of people,
lots of very serious people,

have been saying
hat AI is going to end jobs,

and that is a very great consequence
for anyone working in education,

because, certainly, the jobs that are going
to exist in the future

are going to be different
than the jobs that exist today.

Now, who has an odd birthday?

Well, I haven't told you
what an odd birthday is yet,

so someone has an odd birthday, like me.

OK. Who was born on an odd-number
day of the month?

I was born on the 11th of April, right?

Come on, it's half the room,
I know it's half the room.

(Laughter)

OK.Well, you want to have
an odd birthday, by the way,

because that means, in 20 years' time,
you will be a person with a job.

As opposed to the even people,
who won't have jobs.

That's certainty -- if you believe
lots of serious people,

you might have missed this news
on Friday the 13th,

I thought this was a rather
depressing news story

....... (check) comparison otherwise ...... (check)

but the chief economist, Bank of England,

went on the record saying 50% of jobs
were under threat in the UK.

And he's not the first serious person
who should know what he's talking about

who said similar things.

There was a very influential Merrill Lynch
report that came out a month or to ago

saying very similar things about
the impact of AI,

robotics, automation on jobs.

under threat