USA beyond Trump | Charles Groenhuijsen | TEDxAmsterdam

NOTE FROM TED: This talk represents the speaker's personal views and understanding of American politics; some viewers may be offended by it. TEDx events are independently organized by volunteers. The guidelines we give TEDx organizers are described in more detail here: http://storage.ted.com/tedx/manuals/tedx_content_guidelines.pdf

It’s important to remember that America grew thanks to immigrants. Where Germany's population doubled from 20 to 40 million, America’s grew exponentially in the same period. From 50 million to 330 million. Again, we owe its success to immigrants. Whilst we see lots in the news about America’s questionable policies but it’s important to remember that there are many silent revolutions that shape America. Colorado is a key example of how America is becoming more progressive. New approaches to ‘criminal’ activity. Marijuana is now legal, inmates are allowed to train horses, Gay marriage is now legal too. We need to continue to make small changes that will collectively have a big impact. We as people make change. Change comes from the people, not from any government - we can be hopeful. Really, America is becoming more progressive. Most commonly known for his reporting at NOS (Dutch correspondent), Charles Groenhuijsen is Dutch journalist who moved to America in the 80s. He’s since learned lots about the idiosyncrasies in American culture and politics, and has seen different sides to America than most of us anticipate. His latest book ‘All things pass. Even Donald Trump’ is out this year. Since moving back to Utrecht, he now speaks about his learnings and experiences in the USA.

This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community. Learn more at https://www.ted.com/tedx

The subject I'd like to talk about today

is the United States beyond Donald Trump,

or a little bit more precise,

America is becoming
progressively progressive.

I'm not kidding you;
it's really happening.

Lady Liberty is looking down
on Ellis Island,

the famous place in New York Harbor

where millions of Americans
arrived in a new homeland.

The first waves of immigrants came,
of course, from Europe:

England - for example -
Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands,

and, for example, Germany.

This is a German family,

and this gentleman
arrived in 1885, in New York

and became a very successful
businessman, Friedrich Trump.

Yes,

the grandfather of the president
of the United States.

And he became a successful businessman.

He ran a hotel and a brothel

for gold miners on the West Coast.

So food, booze, and sex
made the Trump family rich.

And that's no fake news, I'll tell you.

(Laughter)

Welcoming all these newcomers

was a matter of principle
for the United States.

It became a nation of immigrants.

It became the core
of the success of America.

And you have to wonder,

What would Lady Liberty think

about the president's sometimes
nasty discussions about immigration?

Let's read from
the inscription on the statue:

"Give me your tired, your poor,
your huddled masses,

yearning to breathe free.

I lift my lamp beside the golden door."

That's the principle;
that's the optimistic message here.

But Lady Liberty may be not so happy
with the discussions nowadays

with the president
talking about rapists and criminals,

and I quote the president saying,

"You wouldn't believe
how bad some of these people are.

These aren't people.
These are animals."

A little perspective here:

The Statue of Liberty
was built around 1870.

The United States had
about 50 million people at the time.

Germany, the home country
of the Trump family -

and the other bigger
European countries as well -

had about 40 million people.

Fast forward.

Germany doubled in population -
a little over 80 million now.

The United States grew
from 50 to 330 million.

It made the USA truly a superpower -

militarily, economically, and culturally.

And this TED Talk, maybe, is part of this;

I mean, it's an American
initiative, after all.

So Mr. President,
talking about immigrants,

if you want to know
what made America great,

here's your answer:

the success of America
would have not been possible,

America would never have been great

without all these newcomers.

One thing President Trump
does not like about immigrants:

once they become citizen -

and he wants to prevent these folks
from becoming citizen,

but, you know, a lot of them
do become citizens -

most of them vote for Democrats.

So, these immigrants
are part of a more progressive America,

part of my story about
a more progressive America.

One of the - what I call in my book -

silent revolutions
that shape a new America.

Take Colorado.

This is part of this story, this state,
one of the Mountain States.

Colorado is very successful.

It made the switch
from the 19th to the 20th century -

cowboys and gold miners -

up into the 21st century,

with a highly educated population,
rapid population growth,

and very successful.

And immigrants are part
of this success story of Colorado,

but one third of Denver's population,
for example, is from Latino descent.

Another thing - Colorado simply ignored

the wishes and opinions
of conservative politicians in Washington,

and they were one of the first states
to officially legalize marijuana.

One day you go to jail
for simple possession,

the next day you can buy it freely.

And my wife and I traveled
for about a month in Colorado,

I mean, these dispensaries -

in Holland, we call them coffee shops -

dispensaries are
all over the place, truly.

Another example of progressive thinking
in the state of Colorado -

and you see it in more states:
Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico -

inmates training wild horses.

Isn't that interesting?

The approach is totally different
than what we've seen in the past.

It's a different approach

in the war on crime we saw,
for example, in the 90s.

And these criminals truly learned
something they never learned before:

being patient, being caring, being gentle.

If you're not patient, caring, and gentle,
you will never tame these wild horses.

And these guys generally grew up

without patience, without caring,
without gentleness.

And these projects in various states,
Colorado being one of them,

are extremely successful.

The ultimate goal
is trying to get recidivism down,

make sure these folks
do not commit more crimes

and end up back in jail,

and they are successful.

Recidivism is way down
for the people who ran this program.

You have to realize

that the prison population
in the United States

doubled in the last 25 years.

Republicans and Democrats signed on
to the gospel of "tough on crime" -

I mean, lock them up
and throw away the key.

That was the idea.

Prisoners were humiliated,
and prison terms were extremely long.

You have to ask yourself,

Does this prepare criminals
for a safe and good return into society?

70% end up committing crimes again
and end up in jail again.

So it's a failing system.

And to be honest, folks,
President Bill Clinton signed -

this was President Clinton. I lost him -

in 1994, signed a crime bill,

a crime bill because of
the crack cocaine epidemic in the US,

and a crime - here it is -
and a crime epidemic as well.

Bill Clinton now
deeply regrets this crime bill

because it created
a generation of incarceration.

It ruined hundreds of thousands of lives
of inmates and their loved ones.

And right now, we see
a totally different approach.

President Barack Obama
started a process of new legislation,

and he used the shift in public opinion
in the United States,

a different way of thinking
when it comes to the justice system -

more support for rehabilitation efforts,
better living conditions.

Thousands of prisoners, mostly nonviolent,
have been released earlier.

It's truly a new way of thinking;

it's one of the silent
revolutions I write about.

And interestingly,

this initiative by Barack Obama
was endorsed by President Trump.

And he deserves praise
for supporting this effort,

the First Step Act
to give people a second chance.

And it's highly unusual

to have consensus in Washington
between Democrats and Republicans.

Listen to Donald Trump.

(Video) Donald Trump:
This landmark legislation

will give countless current and former
prisoners a second chance at life

and a new opportunity to contribute

to their communities,
their states, and their nations.

Who wants to come up?

Charles Groenhuijsen:
And it's true, and as I already said,

it's already in effect

and a lot of states are probably
going to follow the federal government.

It's a modest first step,

but it does make life slightly better

after a long period of harshness
and humiliation for prisoners -

a new way of thinking with broad support
among the American population.

This is one of those silent revolutions
that creates a new America.

"We the people," folks,

the famous first words
of the US Constitution,

they are essential in this transition.

Changes do not start -

The changes I just described

do not start in Washington
or state capitals.

We the people make change,
and they truly have a long wish list.

On top of their wish list -
climate change.

And there's a lot to worry about
when it comes to climate change.

We talk about it all the time,
and rightfully so.

But if you look at the situation
in the US right now,

there's a broad alliance
of citizens, lobby groups,

climate activists,
and CEOs of big companies

who say, "Enough! We have to do
something about climate" -

a highly unusual coalition.

180 CEOs of big companies,

like Apple, Amazon, Bank of America,
and General Motors,

sign on to this new approach.

This is unprecedented
and makes me hopeful.

And yes, President Donald Trump
cancelled the Paris Accord,

he got out of Paris Climate Accord,

but at the same time,

this coalition of citizens,
states, and CEOs:

"Mr. President,
where you fail, we fill in.

We the people want really another America,
and not your America, Mr. President."

That's going on all over the place.

This is unprecedented.

Another huge change -
and you probably know about it -

I mean, eventually, the United States
legalized gay marriage.

I've lived in the US for 23 years.

When you'd said to me 15, 20 years ago,

"Charles, you know, by 2015,
we will have gay marriage legalized,"

I would have said, "You're nuts.
It's not going to happen."

And it was a tough fight.

I remember 2004.

George W. Bush was running for reelection

and pushed for a constitutional amendment,

saying marriage is
between a man and a woman

and that's it.

The very same year,

the state of Massachusetts

was the first state
to legalize gay marriage,

and from then on, state after state
legalized gay marriage.

Not the people in Washington
brought about the change.

No, the people in states,
we the people made the change.

Up until 2015,

with the landmark decision
of the Supreme Court saying,

"Yes, nationwide legalization
of gay marriage,"

a huge victory for the gay movement,

and a blistering defeat
for Republicans and evangelicals -

they lost.

The movement for gay marriage
was unstoppable -

we the people won.

Another one.

We're not there yet
when it comes to gun control,

but there are some facts
that can make you cautiously optimistic.

Public opinion is soundly in favor
of more strict gun laws, really.

The clear majority of the United States
and American people want it.

Republicans and President Trump
want the opposite.

I mean, President Trump made promises
and he didn't live up to them.

The gun control lobby is strong, folks.

And we see the same thing
we saw with gay marriage,

and we saw it with
immigration, for example,

and the climate crisis -

a broad coalition saying,
"We want something else."

There's a statement by 145 CEOs
saying we need change.

Let me quote from their statement.

They say, "This is a public health crisis
that demands urgent action.

Gun violence in America
is not inevitable;

it's preventable."

And a great example of this switch
among, you know, CEOs is Walmart.

You may remember El Paso,
the summer of 2019,

terrible shooting
with 22 people killed, 24 injured.

Shortly after the shooting,

the CEO, Doug McMillon, of Walmart
came out with a statement

and he said, "This is - "

And he was talking about their gun sales,
the sales of ammunition.

They make a lot of money
on selling this stuff.

And he said, "The status quo
is unacceptable."

Imagine - this is Walmart.

They've 5,000 stores nationwide,
and primarily in rural areas,

and rural areas
are mostly Republican territory.

And this guy says this is unacceptable,

we have to change
the way we deal with this issue.

Also, still a long way to go
when it comes to inequality -

rich and poor.

Top managers in US companies

made, in 1965, about 20 times
as much as the average worker,

which is considerable difference, right?

Right now, it's more than 300 times
the amount the average worker makes.

In the last 10 years,
federal minimum wage hasn't been raised.

Homelessness is up.

And more and more people
and more and more millennials

primarily say, "Enough.
We have to change this."

There is a force for change.

When I did the research for my book,

I came across a piece of research
that really stunned me.

They looked at zip codes,

and they looked at life expectancy
in various zip codes:

what's the longest living

and what's the shortest living
ZIP code in Chicago.

Well, this is clearly, of course,
a difference between rich and poor, right?

In the rich zip codes,

people live, on average, 30 years longer

than in the poorest zip code -

30 years difference.

And again, a lot of people say, "Enough!"

I want to share with you
two more big developments in the US,

and both seem to be bad news
for Republicans.

First of all, decline of religion.

It's not a very popular subject.

Most people don't want to talk about it,
but we have to talk about it.

Between 6 and 10 thousand churches
closed every year;

particularly millennials, young people,
leave the church in droves.

They don't want to be a member.

They don't like
the institution of the church.

They leave religion.
They're no longer religious.

And this is important politically

since we have seen
in the last 30, 40 years

of very powerful alliance

between Republicans on one side
and white evangelicals -

black churches is a different story -

between Republicans
and white evangelicals.

This powerful political alliance
brought us Ronald Reagan;

George Bush, the older George Bush;
and George W Bush;

and it brought us Donald Trump.

Trump would not be in the White House
without the support of white evangelicals.

And their numbers are declining rapidly.

Let me show you a couple of books
that came out about this phenomenon.

So yeah, if you want to do
some reading here:

[The End of White Christian America];

another one - The Fall
of the Evangelical Nation;

or this one, R.I.P. G.O.P.

GOP is the Republican Party.

And look at the subtitle here:

"How the new America
is dooming the Republicans."

And full disclosure -

Stan Greenberg, who wrote this,

is a democratic pollster
who used to work for Bill Clinton.

But I think his numbers
are quite compelling, actually.

This is a huge development,
politically very important.

Another one -
immigration and diversity.

There's a widespread misconception

about what people, American people,
think about immigration.

People tend to think most Americans
want less immigrants.

No, it's not true.

Yes, one-third of America
wants less immigrants -

you can look it up in Gallup.

One third says,
"Let's keep it the way it is,"

and one third says,
"Let's bring in more people.

We are a nation of immigrants, after all."

So that's different
than a lot of people think.

I want to show you - I don't have
graphs and maps except this one.

What you see here, top right -

the darker a state,

the higher the percentage
of people from minorities,

and the darkest color of blue
is 50+ percent minority.

That's in 2014, with a number of states,
particularly in the south.

If you look bottom left,
that's the situation in 2040,

and the other one on the right
at the bottom, 2060.

If I were a Republican,
this would keep me awake at night

because minorities, folks,
vote predominantly Democratic.

We've seen it all along,
and even in the last elections,

2018, midterms,

and in 2016, presidential elections.

Yes, minorities do vote
progressive on average.

So if their numbers increase,
the Republicans lose votes left and right,

particularly on the right of course.

The question is, of course,

Why did the Republicans miss,
eventually, the exit to the 21st century?

They're more or less stuck in the 1980s.

And I can show that clearly
by these pictures.

This is a collection

of newly elected Republican members
of the House of Representatives,

elected in the midterm elections in 2018.

Look at the diversity here, folks.

So we have, on the bottom left,
a guy with an eyepatch;

(Laughter)

and we have on the bottom right,
a woman - yes! a woman,

white middle-aged, but still.

Same picture, Democrats newly elected -
that looks quite different, does it?

So this is the difference between
the two parties as we speak, folks:

top left, 20th century;
bottom right, 21st century.

And you can ask yourself, I mean,

"Do the Republicans
simply ignore all this change,

or do they have some kind
of a counter-attack?"

Yes, there is a counter-attack,
and this is part of the counter-attack:

The radical left and the socialism
goes mainstream -

Fox News.

They blame the Democrats

for being radical and being
socialist and everything -

the surge in socialism.

And I want to play a little clip
with this guy, Glenn Beck.

He is one of the famous conservative
talk show hosts in the United States,

and he was interviewed
by another guy, Sean Hannity.

Oh, this doesn't look totally right.

And they were talking
about the rise of socialism.

And Sean Hannity
asked Glenn Beck, you know,

"What's the antidote? What can we do
about this rise in socialism?"

And Glenn Beck says,
"Well, I'm not really sure,"

but listen what he says after that.

(Video) Sean Hannity:
What's the antidote?

That's what I wanted to ask you.

Glenn Beck: I don't know
if there's an antidote.

But I will tell you this.

If the Republicans don't win
in this next election,

I think we are officially at the end
of the country as we know it.

We may not survive
even if we win, but we -

CG: We may see the end of the country
as we know it - isn't that interesting?

Apparently, their system and their,
you know, their way of thinking,

way of doing things is quite vulnerable.

What about Donald Trump?

I mean, he plays the same tune, in a way.

He's also talking the same words.

Listen to Trump saying, also,
the end of the country as we know it.

Listen.

(Video) Donald Trump: they want
to destroy our country as we know it -

not acceptable.

It's not going to happen.

CG: So will he succeed?

His supporters, ladies and gentlemen,
like to see him on Mount Rushmore,

you know, among George Washington,

Thomas Jefferson, Theodore Roosevelt,
and Abram Lincoln.

His opponents say, "Well, rather not."

His supporters are sure
he's going to be reelected in 2020.

His opponents have
the "Lock him up" slogan ready.

I haven't talked a lot about the election.

But it's important to suppose
Donald Trump gets reelected -

it's not impossible.

You have to realize

that the developments
I just described for you

are not going to stop.

Yes, progress will slow down,
but it will not stop.

It's hard to predict what will happen,

but that will be my prediction.

I was talking to an optimistic
Democrat the other day,

and he said, "Charles, you know what?

Eventually, maybe 5 or 10 years from now,

we'll look back
on all this nonsense and say,

'Donald Trump was the best thing
that ever happened to me.'"

I'm not sure, but it could be.

The younger generation, folks,
the leaders of tomorrow

will not take no for an answer.

They will be - these Millennials
and Generation Z -

they will be, rather sooner than later,
the new ruling majority.

That's the perspective we have.

And yes,

it could be the end
of the country as we know it.

Conservatives hate it;

progressives can't wait to see
the end of the country as we know it.

We also see the end
of the Republican Party as we know it.

And finally and fundamentally,

eventually, we're going to see
the end of Donald Trump as we know him.

Let's make America great
and Lady Liberty proud again.

Thank you very much.

(Applause)