Play! Experiment! Discover!
-
0:00 - 0:02I'll just start talking
about the 17th century. -
0:02 - 0:04I hope nobody finds that offensive.
-
0:04 - 0:07I -- you know, when I --
after I had invented PCR, -
0:07 - 0:09I kind of needed a change.
-
0:09 - 0:12And I moved down to La Jolla
and learned how to surf. -
0:12 - 0:15And I started living down there
on the beach for a long time. -
0:15 - 0:17And when surfers are out waiting
-
0:17 - 0:19for waves,
-
0:19 - 0:21you probably wonder, if you've never
been out there, what are they doing? -
0:21 - 0:23You know, sometimes there's a 10-,
15-minute break out there -
0:23 - 0:25when you're waiting for a wave to come in.
-
0:25 - 0:27They usually talk about the 17th century.
-
0:28 - 0:31You know, they get a real
bad rap in the world. -
0:31 - 0:34People think they're sort of lowbrows.
-
0:35 - 0:37One day, somebody suggested
I read this book. -
0:37 - 0:39It was called --
-
0:39 - 0:41it was called "The Air Pump,"
-
0:41 - 0:43or something like "The
Leviathan and The Air Pump." -
0:43 - 0:46It was a real weird book
about the 17th century. -
0:46 - 0:48And I realized, the roots
-
0:48 - 0:50of the way I sort of thought
-
0:50 - 0:53was just the only natural
way to think about things. -
0:53 - 0:56That -- you know, I was born
thinking about things that way, -
0:56 - 0:58and I had always
been like a little scientist guy. -
0:58 - 1:00And when I went to find out something,
-
1:00 - 1:02I used scientific methods.
I wasn't real surprised, -
1:02 - 1:04you know, when they first told me how --
-
1:04 - 1:06how you were supposed to do science,
-
1:06 - 1:09because I'd already been doing it
for fun and whatever. -
1:10 - 1:13But it didn't -- it never occurred to me
-
1:13 - 1:15that it had to be invented
-
1:15 - 1:17and that it had been invented
-
1:17 - 1:19only 350 years ago.
-
1:19 - 1:21You know, it was --
-
1:21 - 1:24like it happened in England,
and Germany, and Italy -
1:24 - 1:26sort of all at the same time.
-
1:26 - 1:28And the story of that,
-
1:28 - 1:30I thought, was really fascinating.
-
1:30 - 1:32So I'm going to talk
a little bit about that, -
1:32 - 1:35and what exactly is it
that scientists are supposed to do. -
1:35 - 1:37And it's, it's a kind of --
-
1:37 - 1:41You know, Charles I got beheaded
-
1:41 - 1:43somewhere early in the 17th century.
-
1:43 - 1:45And the English set up Cromwell
-
1:45 - 1:47and a whole bunch
of Republicans or whatever, -
1:47 - 1:49and not the kind of Republicans we had.
-
1:50 - 1:53They changed the government,
and it didn't work. -
1:54 - 1:56And
-
1:57 - 1:59Charles II, the son,
-
2:01 - 2:03was finally put back
on the throne of England. -
2:03 - 2:06He was really nervous,
because his dad had been, -
2:06 - 2:08you know, beheaded for being
the King of England -
2:08 - 2:10And he was nervous about the fact
-
2:11 - 2:13that conversations that got going
-
2:13 - 2:15in, like, bars and stuff
-
2:15 - 2:17would turn to --
-
2:17 - 2:19this is kind of -- it's hard to believe,
-
2:19 - 2:21but people in the 17th century in England
-
2:21 - 2:23were starting to talk about, you know,
-
2:23 - 2:25philosophy and stuff in bars.
-
2:25 - 2:27They didn't have TV screens,
-
2:27 - 2:29and they didn't have
any football games to watch. -
2:29 - 2:31And they would get really pissy,
-
2:31 - 2:34and all of a sudden people would spill
out into the street and fight -
2:34 - 2:36about issues like whether or not
-
2:36 - 2:39it was okay if Robert Boyle
-
2:39 - 2:41made a device called the vacuum pump.
-
2:41 - 2:44Now, Boyle was a friend of Charles II.
-
2:44 - 2:47He was a Christian guy
during the weekends, -
2:47 - 2:50but during the week he was a scientist.
-
2:50 - 2:51(Laughter)
-
2:51 - 2:53Which was -- back then it was
-
2:53 - 2:56sort of, you know, well, you know --
-
2:56 - 2:59if you made this thing --
he made this little device, -
2:59 - 3:01like kind of like a bicycle pump
-
3:01 - 3:04in reverse that could suck
all the air out of -- -
3:04 - 3:06you know what a bell jar is?
One of these things, -
3:06 - 3:08you pick it up, put it
down, and it's got a seal, -
3:08 - 3:10and you can see inside of it,
-
3:10 - 3:12so you can see what's going
on inside this thing. -
3:12 - 3:15But what he was trying to do
was to pump all the air out of there, -
3:15 - 3:17and see what would happen inside there.
-
3:17 - 3:20I mean, the first -- I think
one of the first experiments he did -
3:21 - 3:23was he put a bird in there.
-
3:23 - 3:26And people in the 17th century,
-
3:26 - 3:29they didn't really understand
the same way we do -
3:29 - 3:31about you know, this stuff is
-
3:31 - 3:34a bunch of different kinds of molecules,
-
3:34 - 3:37and we breathe it
in for a purpose and all that. -
3:37 - 3:39I mean, fish don't know much about water,
-
3:39 - 3:42and people didn't know much about air.
-
3:42 - 3:44But both started exploring it.
-
3:44 - 3:46One thing, he put a bird in there,
and he pumped all the air out, -
3:46 - 3:48and the bird died. So he said, hmm...
-
3:48 - 3:51He said -- he called
what he'd done as making -- -
3:51 - 3:53they didn't call it
a vacuum pump at the time. -
3:53 - 3:56Now you call it a vacuum
pump; he called it a vacuum. -
3:56 - 3:59Right? And immediately,
-
3:59 - 4:01he got into trouble with the local clergy
-
4:01 - 4:04who said, you can't make a vacuum.
-
4:04 - 4:06Ah, uh --
-
4:06 - 4:09(Laughter)
-
4:09 - 4:11Aristotle said that nature abhors one.
-
4:11 - 4:13I think it was a poor
translation, probably, -
4:13 - 4:16but people relied
on authorities like that. -
4:16 - 4:19And you know, Boyle says, well, shit.
-
4:19 - 4:21I make them all the time.
-
4:21 - 4:24I mean, whatever
that is that kills the bird -- -
4:24 - 4:26and I'm calling it a vacuum.
-
4:26 - 4:29And the religious people said that
-
4:29 - 4:32if God wanted you to make --
-
4:32 - 4:34I mean, God is everywhere,
-
4:34 - 4:36that was one of their rules,
is God is everywhere. -
4:36 - 4:39And a vacuum --
there's nothing in a vacuum, -
4:39 - 4:41so you've -- God couldn't be in there.
-
4:41 - 4:44So therefore the church said that you
can't make a vacuum, you know. -
4:44 - 4:46And Boyle said, bullshit.
-
4:46 - 4:48I mean, you want to call it Godless,
-
4:48 - 4:50you know, you call it Godless.
-
4:50 - 4:52But that's not my job. I'm not into that.
-
4:52 - 4:54I do that on the weekend. And like --
-
4:55 - 4:58what I'm trying to do
is figure out what happens -
4:58 - 5:01when you suck everything
out of a compartment. -
5:01 - 5:03And he did all these
cute little experiments. -
5:03 - 5:06Like he did one with --
he had a little wheel, -
5:06 - 5:08like a fan, that was
-
5:09 - 5:12sort of loosely attached,
so it could spin by itself. -
5:12 - 5:14He had another fan opposed to it
-
5:14 - 5:16that he had like a --
-
5:16 - 5:18I mean, the way I would have done
this would be, like, a rubber band, -
5:18 - 5:20and, you know, around a tinker
toy kind of fan. -
5:20 - 5:23I know exactly how he did
it; I've seen the drawings. -
5:24 - 5:26It's two fans, one which he could
turn from outside -
5:26 - 5:28after he got the vacuum established,
-
5:28 - 5:31and he discovered that if he pulled
all the air out of it, -
5:31 - 5:34the one fan would no longer
turn the other one, right? -
5:34 - 5:37Something was missing, you know.
I mean, these are -- -
5:37 - 5:39it's kind of weird to think that someone
had to do an experiment to show that, -
5:39 - 5:42but that was what was going
on at the time. -
5:44 - 5:46And like, there was big arguments about it
-
5:46 - 5:49in the -- you know, the gin houses
and in the coffee shops and stuff. -
5:50 - 5:52And Charles
-
5:52 - 5:54started not liking that.
-
5:54 - 5:56Charles II was kind of saying, you
know, you should keep that -- -
5:57 - 6:00let's make a place where
you can do this stuff -
6:00 - 6:02where people don't get so -- you know,
-
6:02 - 6:05we don't want the -- we don't want to get
the people mad at me again. And so -- -
6:05 - 6:08because when they started
talking about religion -
6:08 - 6:10and science and stuff like that,
-
6:10 - 6:13that's when it had sort of gotten
his father in trouble. -
6:13 - 6:14And so,
-
6:14 - 6:16Charles said, I'm going
to put up the money -
6:16 - 6:18give you guys a building,
-
6:18 - 6:20come here and you can
meet in the building, -
6:20 - 6:22but just don't talk
about religion in there. -
6:22 - 6:24And that was fine with Boyle.
-
6:24 - 6:27He said, OK, we're going
to start having these meetings. -
6:27 - 6:29And anybody who wants to do science is --
-
6:29 - 6:31this is about the time that Isaac
Newton was starting to whip out -
6:31 - 6:33a lot of really interesting things.
-
6:33 - 6:36And there was all kind of people
that would come to the Royal Society, -
6:36 - 6:39they called it. You had to be
dressed up pretty well. -
6:39 - 6:41It wasn't like a TED conference.
-
6:41 - 6:43That was the only criteria,
was that you be -- -
6:43 - 6:46you looked like a gentleman,
and they'd let anybody could come. -
6:46 - 6:48You didn't have to be a member then.
-
6:48 - 6:50And so, they would come
in and you would do -- -
6:50 - 6:53Anybody that was going
to show an experiment, -
6:53 - 6:55which was kind of a new word at the time,
-
6:55 - 6:57demonstrate some principle,
-
6:57 - 7:00they had to do it on stage,
where everybody could see it. -
7:00 - 7:02So they were --
-
7:02 - 7:04the really important part of this was,
-
7:04 - 7:06you were not supposed to talk
-
7:06 - 7:09about final causes, for instance.
-
7:09 - 7:11And God was out of the picture.
-
7:11 - 7:14The actual nature of reality
was not at issue. -
7:15 - 7:18You're not supposed to talk
about the absolute nature of anything. -
7:18 - 7:20You were not supposed
to talk about anything -
7:20 - 7:22that you couldn't demonstrate.
-
7:22 - 7:25So if somebody could see it, you could
say, here's how the machine works, -
7:26 - 7:29here's what we do, and then
here's what happens. -
7:29 - 7:31And seeing what happens, it was OK
-
7:31 - 7:33to generalize,
-
7:33 - 7:36and say, I'm sure that this
will happen anytime -
7:36 - 7:38we make one of these things.
-
7:38 - 7:40And so you can start making up some rules.
-
7:40 - 7:43You say, anytime you have a vacuum state,
-
7:43 - 7:46you will discover that one wheel
will not turn another one, -
7:46 - 7:48if the only connection between them
-
7:48 - 7:51is whatever was there before the vacuum.
That kind of thing. -
7:51 - 7:53Candles can't burn in a vacuum,
-
7:53 - 7:56therefore, probably
sparklers wouldn't either. -
7:56 - 7:58It's not clear; actually sparklers will,
-
7:58 - 8:00but they didn't know that.
-
8:00 - 8:02They didn't have sparklers. But, they --
-
8:02 - 8:07(Laughter)
-
8:07 - 8:09-- you can make up rules,
but they have to relate -
8:10 - 8:12only to the things
that you've been able to demonstrate. -
8:12 - 8:15And most the demonstrations
had to do with visuals. -
8:15 - 8:17Like if you do an experiment on stage,
-
8:17 - 8:20and nobody can see it, they can just hear it,
they would probably think you were freaky. -
8:20 - 8:23I mean, reality is what you can see.
-
8:23 - 8:27That wasn't an explicit
rule in the meeting, -
8:27 - 8:29but I'm sure that was part of it,
you know. If people hear voices, -
8:29 - 8:32and they can't see and associate
it with somebody, -
8:32 - 8:34that person's probably not there.
-
8:34 - 8:36But the general idea
that you could only -- -
8:38 - 8:41you could only really talk
about things in that place -
8:41 - 8:43that had some kind of experimental basis.
-
8:43 - 8:45It didn't matter what Thomas Hobbes,
-
8:45 - 8:47who was a local philosopher,
-
8:47 - 8:49said about it, you know,
-
8:49 - 8:52because you weren't going
to be talking final causes. -
8:52 - 8:53What's happening here,
-
8:53 - 8:55in the middle of the 17th century,
-
8:55 - 8:57was that what became my field --
-
8:57 - 8:59science, experimental science --
-
8:59 - 9:01was pulling itself away,
-
9:01 - 9:04and it was in a physical way, because we're
going to do it in this room over here, -
9:04 - 9:06but it was also what -- it
was an amazing thing that happened. -
9:06 - 9:08Science had been all interlocked
-
9:08 - 9:10with theology, and philosophy,
-
9:10 - 9:13and -- and -- and mathematics,
-
9:13 - 9:15which is really not science.
-
9:16 - 9:19But experimental science had
been tied up with all those things. -
9:19 - 9:22And the mathematics part
-
9:22 - 9:24and the experimental science part
-
9:24 - 9:26was pulling away from philosophy.
-
9:26 - 9:28And -- things --
-
9:28 - 9:30we never looked back.
-
9:30 - 9:32It's been so cool since then.
-
9:33 - 9:38I mean, it just -- it just -- untangled
a thing that was really impeding -
9:38 - 9:40technology from being developed.
-
9:40 - 9:42And, I mean, everybody in this room --
-
9:42 - 9:44now, this is 350 short years ago.
-
9:44 - 9:46Remember, that's a short time.
-
9:46 - 9:48It was 300,000, probably, years ago
-
9:49 - 9:52that most of us, the ancestors
of most of us in this room -
9:52 - 9:54came up out of Africa
and turned to the left. -
9:55 - 9:57You know, the ones that turned
to the right, there are some of those -
9:57 - 9:59in the Japanese translation.
-
9:59 - 10:02But that happened very -- a long time ago
-
10:02 - 10:04compared to
-
10:04 - 10:06350 short years ago.
-
10:06 - 10:08But in that 350 years,
-
10:08 - 10:11the place has just undergone
a lot of changes. -
10:11 - 10:13In fact, everybody in this room probably,
-
10:13 - 10:16especially if you picked up your bag --
-
10:16 - 10:18some of you, I know, didn't
pick up your bags -- -
10:18 - 10:20but if you picked up your bag,
everybody in this room -
10:20 - 10:22has got in their pocket,
or back in their room, -
10:22 - 10:24something
-
10:24 - 10:26that 350 years ago,
-
10:26 - 10:28kings would have gone to war to have.
-
10:29 - 10:31I mean, if you can think how important --
-
10:31 - 10:33If you have a GPS system
and there are no satellites, -
10:33 - 10:35it's not going to be much use.
But, like -- -
10:35 - 10:37but, you know, if somebody
had a GPS system -
10:37 - 10:40in the 17th century
-
10:40 - 10:42some king would have
gotten together an army -
10:42 - 10:44and gone to get it, you know.
If that person -- -
10:44 - 10:46Audience: For the teddy bear?
The teddy bear? -
10:46 - 10:49Kary Mullis: They might have done
it for the teddy bear, yeah. -
10:49 - 10:51But -- all of us own stuff.
-
10:51 - 10:53I mean, individuals own things
-
10:53 - 10:55that kings would have
definitely gone to war to get. -
10:56 - 10:57And this is just 350 years.
-
10:57 - 10:59Not a whole lot of people
doing this stuff. -
10:59 - 11:01You know, the important people --
-
11:01 - 11:03you can almost read about their lives,
-
11:03 - 11:06about all the really important
people that made advances, you know. -
11:06 - 11:08And, I mean --
-
11:08 - 11:11this kind of stuff, you
know, all this stuff -
11:11 - 11:13came from that separation
-
11:13 - 11:16of this little sort of thing that we do --
-
11:16 - 11:18now I, when I was a boy
-
11:18 - 11:20was born sort of with this idea
-
11:20 - 11:22that if you want to know something --
-
11:22 - 11:24you know, maybe it's because my old
man was gone a lot, -
11:24 - 11:26and my mother didn't
really know much science, -
11:26 - 11:29but I thought if you want
to know something about stuff, -
11:29 - 11:31you do it -- you make
an experiment, you know. -
11:31 - 11:33You get -- you get, like --
-
11:33 - 11:36I just had a natural feeling for science
-
11:36 - 11:38and setting up experiments. I thought
that was the way everybody had always thought. -
11:38 - 11:41I thought that anybody
with any brains will do it that way. -
11:41 - 11:44It isn't true. I mean,
there's a lot of people -- -
11:44 - 11:47You know, I was one of those
scientists that was -- -
11:47 - 11:49got into trouble the other night at dinner
-
11:49 - 11:51because of the post-modernism thing.
-
11:51 - 11:53And I didn't mean, you know
-- where is that lady? -
11:53 - 11:54Audience: Here.
-
11:54 - 11:55(Laughter)
-
11:55 - 11:58KM: I mean, I didn't really
think of that as an argument -
11:58 - 12:00so much as just a lively discussion.
-
12:00 - 12:02I didn't take it personally, but --
-
12:03 - 12:06I just -- I had -- I naively had thought,
-
12:06 - 12:09until this surfing experience
started me into the 17th century, -
12:09 - 12:11I'd thought that's just
the way people thought, -
12:11 - 12:14and everybody did,
and they recognized reality -
12:14 - 12:16by what they could see
or touch or feel or hear. -
12:17 - 12:20At any rate, when I was a boy,
-
12:22 - 12:24I, like, for instance, I had this --
-
12:24 - 12:26I got this little book
from Fort Sill, Oklahoma -- -
12:26 - 12:28This is about the time
that George Dyson's dad -
12:28 - 12:30was starting to blow nuclear --
-
12:30 - 12:33thinking about blowing
up nuclear rockets and stuff. -
12:33 - 12:36I was thinking about making
my own little rockets. -
12:36 - 12:39And I knew that frogs -- little frogs --
-
12:39 - 12:41had aspirations of space travel,
-
12:41 - 12:43just like people. And I --
-
12:43 - 12:46(Laughter)
-
12:46 - 12:48I was looking for a --
-
12:48 - 12:50a propulsion system
-
12:50 - 12:52that would like, make a rocket, like,
-
12:52 - 12:54maybe about four feet high
go up a couple of miles. -
12:54 - 12:57And, I mean, that was my sort of goal.
-
12:57 - 13:00I wanted it to go out of sight and then
I wanted this little parachute -
13:00 - 13:03to come back with the frog in it.
-
13:03 - 13:05And -- I -- I --
-
13:05 - 13:07I got this book from Fort Sill, Oklahoma,
-
13:07 - 13:09where there's a missile base.
-
13:09 - 13:11They send it out for amateur rocketeers,
-
13:12 - 13:14and
-
13:14 - 13:16it said in there
-
13:16 - 13:19do not ever heat a mixture
of potassium perchlorate and sugar. -
13:19 - 13:22(Laughter)
-
13:22 - 13:24You know,
-
13:24 - 13:26that's what you call a lead.
-
13:26 - 13:28(Laughter)
-
13:28 - 13:30You sort of -- now you say,
well, let's see if I can -
13:30 - 13:33get hold of some potassium chlorate
and sugar, perchlorate and sugar, -
13:33 - 13:36and heat it; it would be interesting to see
what it is they don't want me to do, -
13:36 - 13:39and what it is going to --
and how is it going to work. -
13:39 - 13:40And we didn't have --
-
13:40 - 13:42like, my mother
-
13:42 - 13:45presided over the back yard
-
13:45 - 13:47from an upstairs window,
-
13:47 - 13:49where she would be ironing
or something like that. -
13:49 - 13:51And she was usually just
sort of keeping an eye on, -
13:51 - 13:53and if there was any puffs
of smoke out there, -
13:53 - 13:55she'd lean out and admonish us all
-
13:55 - 13:57not to blow our eyes out. That was her --
-
14:00 - 14:02You know, that was kind of the worst
thing that could happen to us. -
14:02 - 14:03That's why I thought, as long
as I don't blow my eyes out... -
14:04 - 14:07I may not care about the fact
-
14:07 - 14:09that it's prohibited
from heating this solution. -
14:09 - 14:11I'm going to do it
carefully, but I'll do it. -
14:11 - 14:13It's like anything else that's prohibited:
-
14:13 - 14:15you do it behind the garage.
-
14:15 - 14:17(Laughter)
-
14:17 - 14:19So, I went to the drug store
-
14:19 - 14:22and I tried to buy
some potassium perchlorate -
14:22 - 14:24and it wasn't unreasonable then for a kid
-
14:24 - 14:27to walk into a drug store
and buy chemicals. -
14:27 - 14:29Nowadays, it's no ma'am,
-
14:29 - 14:31check your shoes. And like --
-
14:31 - 14:33(Laughter)
-
14:33 - 14:35But then it wasn't -- they didn't
have any, but the guy had -- -
14:35 - 14:38I said, what kind of salts
of potassium do you have? You know. -
14:38 - 14:40And he had potassium nitrate.
-
14:40 - 14:43And I said, that might do
the same thing, whatever it is. -
14:43 - 14:46I'm sure it's got to do with rockets
or it wouldn't be in that manual. -
14:46 - 14:48And so I -- I did some experiments.
-
14:48 - 14:50You know, I started
off with little tiny amounts -
14:50 - 14:52of potassium nitrate and sugar,
-
14:52 - 14:54which was readily available,
-
14:54 - 14:56and I mixed it in different proportions,
-
14:56 - 14:58and I tried to light it on fire.
-
14:59 - 15:02Just to see what would happen,
if you mixed it together. -
15:02 - 15:03And it -- they burned.
-
15:03 - 15:05It burned kind of slow,
but it made a nice smell, -
15:05 - 15:07compared to other rocket
fuels I had tried, -
15:07 - 15:09that all had sulfur in them.
-
15:09 - 15:11And, it smelt like burnt candy.
-
15:12 - 15:15And then I tried the melting
business, and I melted it. -
15:15 - 15:19And then it melted into a little sort
of syrupy liquid, brown. -
15:19 - 15:22And then it cooled
down to a brick-hard substance, -
15:22 - 15:24that when you lit that,
-
15:24 - 15:26it went off like a bat.
-
15:26 - 15:28I mean, the little bowl of that stuff
that had cooled down -- -
15:28 - 15:30you'd light it, and it would just
start dancing around the yard. -
15:30 - 15:32And I said, there
-
15:32 - 15:35is a way to get a frog
up to where he wants to go. -
15:35 - 15:36(Laughter)
-
15:36 - 15:39So I started developing --
-
15:39 - 15:41you know, George's dad had a lot of help.
I just had my brother. -
15:42 - 15:45But I -- it took me
about -- it took me about, -
15:45 - 15:47I'd say, six months
-
15:47 - 15:49to finally figure
out all the little things. -
15:49 - 15:51There's a lot of little things involved
-
15:51 - 15:53in making a rocket that it
will actually work, -
15:53 - 15:55even after you have the fuel.
-
15:55 - 15:57But you do it, by -- what I just--
-
15:57 - 15:59you know, you do experiments,
-
15:59 - 16:00and you write down things sometimes,
-
16:00 - 16:02you make observations, you know.
-
16:02 - 16:04And then you slowly build up a theory
-
16:04 - 16:06of how this stuff works.
-
16:06 - 16:08And it was --
I was following all the rules. -
16:08 - 16:10I didn't know what the rules were,
-
16:10 - 16:12I'm a natural born scientist, I guess,
-
16:12 - 16:15or some kind of a throwback
to the 17th century, whatever. -
16:15 - 16:19But at any rate, we finally did
-
16:19 - 16:21have a device that would reproduceably
-
16:21 - 16:23put a frog out of sight
-
16:23 - 16:25and get him back alive.
-
16:25 - 16:27And we had not --
-
16:27 - 16:30I mean, we weren't frightened by it.
-
16:30 - 16:32We should have been,
because it made a lot of smoke -
16:32 - 16:34and it made a lot of noise,
-
16:34 - 16:36and it was powerful, you know.
-
16:36 - 16:38And once in a while, they would blow up.
-
16:38 - 16:40But I wasn't worried, by the way,
-
16:40 - 16:42about, you know,
-
16:42 - 16:44the explosion causing
the destruction of the planet. -
16:44 - 16:46I hadn't heard about the 10 ways
-
16:46 - 16:48that we should be afraid of the --
-
16:48 - 16:50By the way,
-
16:50 - 16:52I could have thought,
-
16:52 - 16:54I'd better not do this because
-
16:54 - 16:56they say not to, you know.
-
16:56 - 16:58And I'd better get permission
from the government. -
16:58 - 17:00If I'd have waited around for that,
-
17:00 - 17:03I would have never -- the frog
would have died, you know. -
17:04 - 17:07At any rate, I bring it
up because it's a good story, -
17:07 - 17:09and he said, tell personal things,
you know, and that's a personal -- -
17:09 - 17:11I was going to tell you about the first
night that I met my wife, -
17:12 - 17:14but that would be too
personal, wouldn't it. -
17:15 - 17:17So, so I've got something
else that's not personal. -
17:17 - 17:20But that... process
is what I think of as science, -
17:20 - 17:23see, where you start with some idea,
-
17:23 - 17:25and then instead of, like, looking up,
-
17:26 - 17:28every authority that you've ever heard of
-
17:28 - 17:30I -- sometimes you do that,
-
17:30 - 17:32if you're going to write a paper later,
-
17:32 - 17:34you want to figure
out who else has worked on it. -
17:34 - 17:36But in the actual process,
you get an idea -- -
17:36 - 17:38like, when I got the idea one night
-
17:38 - 17:41that I could amplify DNA
with two oligonucleotides, -
17:41 - 17:44and I could make lots of copies
of some little piece of DNA, -
17:44 - 17:46you know, the thinking for that
-
17:46 - 17:49was about 20 minutes
while I was driving my car, -
17:50 - 17:54and then instead of going -- I went
back and I did talk to people about it, -
17:54 - 17:58but if I'd listened to what I heard
from all my friends who were molecular biologists -- -
17:58 - 18:00I would have abandoned it.
-
18:00 - 18:02You know, if I had gone back
looking for an authority figure -
18:02 - 18:04who could tell me if it would work or not,
-
18:04 - 18:06he would have said, no, it probably won't.
-
18:06 - 18:09Because the results of it
were so spectacular -
18:10 - 18:13that if it worked it was going to change
everybody's goddamn way of doing molecular biology. -
18:13 - 18:15Nobody wants a chemist to come in
-
18:15 - 18:18and poke around in their stuff
like that and change things. -
18:18 - 18:20But if you go to authority,
and you always don't -- -
18:20 - 18:22you don't always get
the right answer, see. -
18:22 - 18:24But I knew, you'd go into the lab
-
18:24 - 18:26and you'd try to make it work yourself.
And then you're the authority, -
18:26 - 18:28and you can say, I know it works,
-
18:28 - 18:30because right there in that tube
-
18:30 - 18:32is where it happened,
-
18:32 - 18:34and here, on this gel,
there's a little band there -
18:34 - 18:37that I know that's DNA,
and that's the DNA I wanted to amplify, -
18:37 - 18:39so there! So it does work.
-
18:39 - 18:41You know, that's how you do science.
-
18:41 - 18:43And then you say, well,
what can make it work better? -
18:43 - 18:45And then you figure out better
and better ways to do it. -
18:45 - 18:47But you always work from, from like, facts
-
18:47 - 18:50that you have made available to you
-
18:50 - 18:52by doing experiments: things
that you could do on a stage. -
18:52 - 18:55And no tricky shit behind the thing.
I mean, it's all -- -
18:55 - 18:57you've got to be very honest
-
18:57 - 18:59with what you're doing if it
really is going to work. -
18:59 - 19:01I mean, you can't make up results,
-
19:01 - 19:03and then do another experiment
based on that one. -
19:03 - 19:05So you have to be honest.
-
19:05 - 19:07And I'm basically honest.
-
19:07 - 19:10I have a fairly bad memory, and dishonesty
would always get me in trouble, -
19:10 - 19:13if I, like -- so I've just
sort of been naturally honest -
19:13 - 19:15and naturally inquisitive,
-
19:15 - 19:17and that sort of leads
to that kind of science. -
19:17 - 19:19Now, let's see...
-
19:19 - 19:22I've got another five minutes, right?
-
19:22 - 19:25OK. All scientists aren't like that.
-
19:26 - 19:28You know -- and there is a lot --
-
19:28 - 19:30(Laughter)
-
19:30 - 19:32There is a lot -- a lot
has been going on since -
19:32 - 19:35Isaac Newton and all that stuff happened.
-
19:35 - 19:37One of the things that happened
right around World War II -
19:37 - 19:39in that same time period before,
-
19:39 - 19:41and as sure as hell afterwards,
-
19:41 - 19:44government got -- realized
that scientists aren't strange dudes -
19:44 - 19:47that, you know, hide in ivory towers
-
19:47 - 19:50and do ridiculous things with test tube.
-
19:50 - 19:52Scientists, you know, made World War II
-
19:52 - 19:54as we know it quite possible.
-
19:54 - 19:56They made faster things.
-
19:57 - 20:00They made bigger guns
to shoot them down with. -
20:00 - 20:03You know, they made drugs
to give the pilots -
20:03 - 20:06if they were broken up in the process.
-
20:06 - 20:09They made all kinds of --
and then finally one giant bomb -
20:09 - 20:11to end the whole thing, right?
-
20:11 - 20:13And everybody stepped back
a little and said, you know, -
20:13 - 20:15we ought to invest in this shit,
-
20:15 - 20:18because whoever has got
the most of these people -
20:18 - 20:21working in the places is going
to have a dominant position, -
20:21 - 20:24at least in the military, and probably
in all kind of economic ways. -
20:24 - 20:26And they got involved
in it, and the scientific -
20:26 - 20:28and industrial establishment was born,
-
20:28 - 20:30and out of that came a lot of scientists
-
20:30 - 20:33who were in there for the money, you know,
-
20:33 - 20:35because it was suddenly available.
-
20:35 - 20:37And they weren't the curious little boys
-
20:37 - 20:39that liked to put frogs up in the air.
-
20:39 - 20:42They were the same people that later
went in to medical school, you know, -
20:42 - 20:45because there was money in it, you know. I mean,
later, then they all got into business -- -
20:45 - 20:48I mean, there are waves of --
going into your high school, -
20:48 - 20:51person saying, you want to be rich, you know,
be a scientist. You know, not anymore. -
20:51 - 20:53You want to be rich, you be a businessman.
-
20:53 - 20:57But a lot of people got in it for the money
and the power and the travel. -
20:57 - 21:00That's back when travel was easy.
-
21:00 - 21:02And those people don't think --
-
21:02 - 21:04they don't --
-
21:04 - 21:06they don't always tell
you the truth, you know. -
21:06 - 21:08There is nothing
in their contract, in fact, -
21:08 - 21:10that makes it to their advantage always,
-
21:10 - 21:12to tell you the truth.
-
21:12 - 21:15And the people I'm talking
about are people that like -- -
21:15 - 21:18they say that they're
a member of the committee -
21:18 - 21:22called, say, the Inter-Governmental
Panel on Climate Change. -
21:22 - 21:25And they -- and they have these big
meetings where they try to figure out -
21:26 - 21:29how we're going to -- how we're
going to continually prove -
21:29 - 21:31that the planet is getting warmer,
-
21:31 - 21:34when that's actually contrary
to most people's sensations. -
21:34 - 21:36I mean, if you actually measure
-
21:36 - 21:38the temperature over a period --
-
21:38 - 21:40I mean, the temperature
has been measured now -
21:40 - 21:43pretty carefully for about 50, 60 years --
-
21:43 - 21:45longer than that it's been measured,
-
21:45 - 21:47but in really nice, precise ways,
-
21:47 - 21:50and records have been kept
for 50 or 60 years, -
21:50 - 21:52and in fact, the temperature
hadn't really gone up. -
21:52 - 21:54It's like, the average temperature
-
21:54 - 21:56has gone up a tiny little bit,
-
21:56 - 21:59because the nighttime temperatures
-
21:59 - 22:01at the weather stations have
come up just a little bit. -
22:01 - 22:03But there's a good explanation for that.
-
22:03 - 22:06And it's that the weather stations
are all built outside of town, -
22:06 - 22:08where the airport was, and now
-
22:08 - 22:10the town's moved out there,
there's concrete all around -
22:10 - 22:12and they call it the skyline effect.
-
22:12 - 22:14And most responsible people
-
22:14 - 22:16that measure temperatures realize
-
22:16 - 22:18you have to shield
your measuring device from that. -
22:18 - 22:21And even then, you know,
-
22:21 - 22:22because the buildings get
warm in the daytime, -
22:22 - 22:24and they keep it a little warmer at night.
-
22:24 - 22:26So the temperature has
been, sort of, inching up. -
22:26 - 22:29It should have been. But not a lot.
Not like, you know -- -
22:29 - 22:31the first guy -- the first
guy that got the idea -
22:31 - 22:33that we're going to fry ourselves here,
-
22:33 - 22:35actually, he didn't think of it that way.
-
22:35 - 22:38His name was Sven Arrhenius.
He was Swedish, and he said, -
22:38 - 22:41if you double the CO2
level in the atmosphere, -
22:41 - 22:43which he thought might
-- this is in 1900 -- -
22:44 - 22:47the temperature ought to go
up about 5.5 degrees, he calculated. -
22:47 - 22:49He was thinking of the earth
as, kind of like, -
22:49 - 22:52you know, like a completely
insulated thing -
22:52 - 22:54with no stuff in it, really,
-
22:54 - 22:56just energy coming down, energy leaving.
-
22:56 - 22:58And so he came up with this theory,
-
22:58 - 23:00and he said, this will be cool,
-
23:00 - 23:03because it'll be a longer
growing season in Sweden, -
23:03 - 23:05you know, and the surfers liked it,
-
23:05 - 23:07the surfers thought, that's a cool idea,
-
23:07 - 23:10because it's pretty cold
in the ocean sometimes, and -- -
23:10 - 23:12but a lot of other people later on
-
23:12 - 23:14started thinking it
would be bad, you know. -
23:15 - 23:17But nobody actually
demonstrated it, right? -
23:17 - 23:19I mean, the temperature as measured --
-
23:19 - 23:21and you can find this
on our wonderful Internet, -
23:21 - 23:24you just go and look
for all NASAs records, -
23:24 - 23:26and all the Weather Bureau's records,
-
23:26 - 23:29and you'll look at it yourself,
and you'll see, the temperature has just -- -
23:29 - 23:32the nighttime temperature measured
on the surface of the planet -
23:32 - 23:34has gone up a tiny little bit.
-
23:34 - 23:36So if you just average that and the daytime
temperature, it looks like it went up -
23:36 - 23:39about .7 degrees in this century.
-
23:39 - 23:41But in fact, it was just coming up --
-
23:41 - 23:44it was the nighttime; the daytime
temperatures didn't go up. -
23:44 - 23:46So -- and Arrhenius' theory --
-
23:46 - 23:48and all the global warmers think --
-
23:48 - 23:50they would say, yeah, it should
go up in the daytime, too, -
23:50 - 23:52if it's the greenhouse effect.
-
23:52 - 23:55Now, people like things
that have, like, names like that, -
23:55 - 23:58that they can envision it, right?
I mean -- -
23:58 - 24:01but people don't like things
like this, so -- most -- I mean, -
24:01 - 24:03you don't get all excited about things
-
24:03 - 24:05like the actual evidence, you know,
-
24:05 - 24:07which would be evidence for strengthening
-
24:07 - 24:10of the tropical circulation in the 1990s.
-
24:10 - 24:12It's a paper that came out in February,
-
24:12 - 24:15and most of you probably
hadn't heard about it. -
24:15 - 24:17"Evidence for Large Decadal Variability
-
24:17 - 24:20in the Tropical Mean
Radiative Energy Budget." -
24:21 - 24:24Excuse me. Those papers
were published by NASA, -
24:24 - 24:26and some scientists
at Columbia, and Viliki -
24:26 - 24:29and a whole bunch of people, Princeton.
-
24:29 - 24:32And those two papers came
out in Science Magazine, -
24:32 - 24:34February the first,
-
24:34 - 24:37and these -- the conclusion
in both of these papers, -
24:37 - 24:40and in also the Science editor's, like,
-
24:40 - 24:42descriptions of these
papers, for, you know, -
24:42 - 24:44for the quickie,
-
24:44 - 24:46is that our theories about global warming
-
24:46 - 24:48are completely wrong. I mean,
-
24:48 - 24:50what these guys were doing,
-
24:50 - 24:53and this is what -- the NASA people
have been saying this for a long time. -
24:53 - 24:56They say, if you measure the temperature
of the atmosphere, it isn't going up -- -
24:56 - 24:59it's not going up at all. We've doing
it very carefully now for 20 years, -
25:00 - 25:02from satellites, and it isn't going up.
-
25:02 - 25:05And in this paper, they show
something much more striking, -
25:05 - 25:08and that was that they did
what they call a radiation -- -
25:08 - 25:11and I'm not going to go into the details
of it, actually it's quite complicated, -
25:11 - 25:14but it isn't as complicated
as they might make you think it is -
25:14 - 25:17by the words they use in those papers.
If you really get down to it, they say, -
25:17 - 25:19the sun puts out a certain
amount of energy -- -
25:19 - 25:21we know how much that is --
-
25:21 - 25:24it falls on the earth, the earth
gives back a certain amount. -
25:24 - 25:26When it gets warm it generates --
-
25:26 - 25:29it makes redder energy --
I mean, like infra-red, -
25:29 - 25:32like something that's warm
gives off infra-red. -
25:32 - 25:34The whole business
of the global warming -- -
25:34 - 25:36trash, really,
-
25:36 - 25:39is that -- if the -- if there's too
much CO2 in the atmosphere, -
25:39 - 25:41the heat that's trying to escape
-
25:41 - 25:44won't be able to get out. But
the heat coming from the sun, -
25:44 - 25:47which is mostly down in the --
it's like 350 nanometers, -
25:47 - 25:50which is where it's centered --
that goes right through CO2. -
25:50 - 25:52So you still get heated,
but you don't dissipate any. -
25:52 - 25:54Well, these guys measured
all of those things. -
25:54 - 25:56I mean, you can talk about that stuff,
-
25:56 - 26:00and you can write these large reports,
and you can get government money to do it, -
26:00 - 26:02but these -- they actually measured it,
-
26:02 - 26:04and it turns
out that in the last 10 years -- -
26:04 - 26:06that's why they say "decadal" there --
-
26:06 - 26:09that the energy -- that the level
-
26:09 - 26:11of what they call "imbalance"
-
26:11 - 26:14has been way the hell
over what was expected. -
26:14 - 26:17Like, the amount of imbalance --
-
26:17 - 26:20meaning, heat's coming
in and it's not going out -
26:20 - 26:22that you would get
from having double the CO2, -
26:22 - 26:25which we're not anywhere
near that, by the way. -
26:25 - 26:27But if we did, in 2025 or something,
-
26:27 - 26:30have double the CO2 as we had in 1900,
-
26:30 - 26:32they say it would be
increase the energy budget -
26:32 - 26:35by about -- in other words,
-
26:35 - 26:37one watt per square centimeter more
-
26:37 - 26:39would be coming in than going out.
-
26:39 - 26:42So the planet should get warmer.
-
26:42 - 26:45Well, they found out in this
study -- these two studies -
26:45 - 26:46by two different teams --
-
26:46 - 26:48that five and a half watts
-
26:48 - 26:50per square meter
-
26:50 - 26:53had been coming in from 1998, 1999,
-
26:53 - 26:55and the place didn't get warmer.
-
26:55 - 26:57So the theory's kaput -- it's nothing.
-
26:57 - 26:59These papers should have been called,
-
26:59 - 27:02"The End to the Global
Warming Fiasco," you know. -
27:02 - 27:04They're concerned,
-
27:04 - 27:07and you can tell they have very
guarded conclusions in these papers, -
27:07 - 27:09because they're talking
about big laboratories -
27:09 - 27:11that are funded by lots of money
-
27:11 - 27:13and by scared people.
-
27:13 - 27:15You know, if they said, you know what?
-
27:15 - 27:17There isn't a problem
with global warming any longer, -
27:17 - 27:19so we can -- you know, they're funding.
-
27:19 - 27:22And if you start a grant request
with something like that, -
27:22 - 27:24and say, global warming
obviously hadn't happened... -
27:24 - 27:26if they -- if they -- if they actually
-- if they actually said that, -
27:26 - 27:28I'm getting out.
-
27:28 - 27:31(Laughter)
-
27:31 - 27:33I'll stand up too, and --
-
27:33 - 27:35(Laughter)
-
27:35 - 27:38(Applause)
-
27:38 - 27:40They have to say that.
-
27:40 - 27:42They had to be very cautious.
-
27:42 - 27:44But what I'm saying is,
you can be delighted, -
27:44 - 27:47because the editor
of Science, who is no dummy, -
27:47 - 27:50and both of these fairly professional --
-
27:50 - 27:53really professional teams, have
really come to the same conclusion -
27:53 - 27:55and in the bottom lines in their papers
-
27:55 - 27:57they have to say, what this means
is, that what we've been thinking, -
27:58 - 28:00was the global circulation
model that we predict -
28:00 - 28:02that the earth is going to get overheated
-
28:02 - 28:05that it's all wrong.
It's wrong by a large factor. -
28:05 - 28:08It's not by a small one. They just --
-
28:08 - 28:11they just misinterpreted
the fact that the earth -- -
28:11 - 28:13there's obviously some mechanisms going on
-
28:13 - 28:15that nobody knew about,
-
28:15 - 28:17because the heat's coming
in and it isn't getting warmer. -
28:17 - 28:20So the planet is a pretty
amazing thing, you know, -
28:20 - 28:22it's big and horrible --
and big and wonderful, -
28:22 - 28:25and it does all kinds of things
we don't know anything about. -
28:25 - 28:27So I mean, the reason I put
those things all together, -
28:27 - 28:29OK, here's the way you're
supposed to do science -- -
28:29 - 28:32some science is done for other
reasons, and just curiosity. -
28:32 - 28:34And there's a lot of things
like global warming, -
28:34 - 28:36and ozone hole and you know,
-
28:36 - 28:38a whole bunch of scientific public issues,
-
28:38 - 28:40that if you're interested in them,
-
28:40 - 28:43then you have to get down the details,
and read the papers called, -
28:43 - 28:45"Large Decadal Variability in the..."
-
28:45 - 28:47You have to figure
out what all those words mean. -
28:47 - 28:49And if you just listen to the guys
-
28:49 - 28:52who are hyping those issues,
and making a lot of money out of it, -
28:52 - 28:55you'll be misinformed, and you'll be
worrying about the wrong things. -
28:55 - 28:59Remember the 10 things that are going
to get you. The -- one of them -- -
28:59 - 29:00(Laughter)
-
29:00 - 29:03And the asteroids is the one I really
agree with there. -
29:03 - 29:07I mean, you've got to watch out for asteroids.
OK, thank you for having me here. -
29:07 - 29:10(Applause)
- Title:
- Play! Experiment! Discover!
- Speaker:
- Kary Mullis
- Description:
-
Biochemist Kary Mullis talks about the basis of modern science: the experiment. Sharing tales from the 17th century and from his own backyard-rocketry days, Mullis celebrates the curiosity, inspiration and rigor of good science in all its forms.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 29:09
Krystian Aparta edited English subtitles for Play! Experiment! Discover! | ||
Helene Batt edited English subtitles for Play! Experiment! Discover! | ||
TED edited English subtitles for Play! Experiment! Discover! | ||
TED edited English subtitles for Play! Experiment! Discover! | ||
TED edited English subtitles for Play! Experiment! Discover! | ||
TED added a translation |