Show Me the Data: Becoming an Expert on Yourself: Talithia Williams at TEDxClaremontColleges
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0:05 - 0:09As a kid I always loved information
-
0:09 - 0:11that I could get from data
-
0:11 - 0:14and the stories that could be told
with numbers. -
0:14 - 0:16I remember, growing up,
I'd be frustrated -
0:16 - 0:20at how my own parents
would lie to me using numbers. -
0:22 - 0:26"Talithia, if I've told you once
I've told you a thousand times." -
0:26 - 0:30No dad, you've only told me 17 times
-
0:30 - 0:34and twice it wasn't my fault.
(Laughter) -
0:34 - 0:37I think that is one of the reasons
I got a Ph.D. in statistics. -
0:37 - 0:38I always wanted to know,
-
0:38 - 0:41what are people trying to hide
with numbers? -
0:41 - 0:42As a statistician,
-
0:42 - 0:45I want people to show me the data
-
0:45 - 0:48so I can decide for myself.
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0:49 - 0:52Donald and I were pregnant
with our third child -
0:52 - 0:55and we were at about 41 and a half weeks,
-
0:55 - 0:58what some of you may refer to
as being overdue. -
0:58 - 1:00Statisticians, we call that
-
1:00 - 1:03being within the 95 percent
confidence interval. -
1:03 - 1:05(Laughter)
-
1:05 - 1:07And at this point in the process
-
1:07 - 1:09we had to come in every couple of days
-
1:09 - 1:11to do a stress test on the baby,
-
1:11 - 1:13and this is just routine,
-
1:13 - 1:17it tests whether or not the baby
is feeling any type of undue stress. -
1:17 - 1:20And you are rarely, if ever,
seen by your actual doctor, -
1:20 - 1:23just whoever happens to be
working at the hospital that day. -
1:23 - 1:26So we go in for a stress test
and after 20 minutes -
1:26 - 1:29the doctor comes out and he says,
-
1:30 - 1:34"Your baby is under stress,
we need to induce you." -
1:35 - 1:40Now, as a statistician,
what's my response? -
1:41 - 1:43Show me the data!
-
1:43 - 1:46So then he proceeds to tell us
-
1:46 - 1:48the baby's heart rate trace
went from 18 minutes, -
1:48 - 1:50the baby's heart rate was
in the normal zone -
1:50 - 1:54and for two minutes
it was in what appeared to be -
1:54 - 1:57my heart rate zone and I said,
-
1:57 - 2:00"Is it possible that maybe
this was my heart rate? -
2:00 - 2:01I was moving around a little bit,
-
2:01 - 2:04it's hard to lay still on your back,
-
2:04 - 2:0641 weeks pregnant for 20 minutes.
-
2:06 - 2:08Maybe it was shifting around."
-
2:08 - 2:12He said, "Well, we don't want
to take any chances." -
2:12 - 2:14I said okay.
-
2:14 - 2:16I said, "What if I was at 36 weeks
-
2:16 - 2:18with this same data?
-
2:18 - 2:21Would your decision be to induce?"
-
2:22 - 2:25"Well, no, I would wait
until you were at least -
2:25 - 2:2838 weeks, but you are almost 42,
-
2:28 - 2:30there is no reason
to leave that baby inside, -
2:30 - 2:32let's get you a room."
-
2:37 - 2:42I said,
"Well, why don't we just do it again? -
2:42 - 2:44We can collect more data.
-
2:44 - 2:47I can try to be really still
for 20 minutes. -
2:47 - 2:50We can average the two and see
-
2:50 - 2:52what that means.
(Laughter) -
2:53 - 2:55And he goes,
-
2:57 - 3:01"Ma'am, I just don't want you
to have a miscarriage." -
3:03 - 3:06That makes three of us.
-
3:06 - 3:07And then he says,
-
3:07 - 3:11"Your chances of having
a miscarriage double -
3:11 - 3:15when you go past your due date.
Let's get you a room." -
3:16 - 3:20Wow. So now as a statistician,
what's my response? -
3:22 - 3:24Show me the data!
-
3:24 - 3:25Dude, you're talking chances,
-
3:25 - 3:27I do chances all day long,
tell me all about chances. -
3:27 - 3:29Let's talk chances.
(Laughter) -
3:29 - 3:31Let's talk chances.
-
3:31 - 3:33So I say, "Okay, great.
-
3:33 - 3:36Do I go from a 30-percent
chance to a 60-percent chance? -
3:36 - 3:38Where are we here
with this miscarriage thing? -
3:38 - 3:41And he goes, "Not quite, but it doubles,
-
3:41 - 3:45and we really just want
what's best for the baby." -
3:46 - 3:49Undaunted, I try a different angle.
-
3:49 - 3:54I said, "Okay, out of 1,000
full-term pregnant women, -
3:54 - 3:57how many of them are going to miscarry
-
3:57 - 3:59just before their due date?
-
3:59 - 4:02And then he looks at me
and looks at Donald, -
4:02 - 4:05and he goes, about one in 1,000.
-
4:07 - 4:09I said, "Okay, so of those 1,000 women,
-
4:09 - 4:12how many are going to miscarry
just after their due date?" -
4:14 - 4:17"About two."
(Laughter) -
4:17 - 4:20I said, "Okay, so you are telling me
that my chances -
4:20 - 4:22go from a 0.1-percent chance
-
4:23 - 4:26to a 0.2-percent chance."
-
4:28 - 4:30Okay, so at this point
the data is not convincing us -
4:30 - 4:32that we need to be induced,
-
4:32 - 4:34and so then we proceed
to have a conversation -
4:34 - 4:36about how inductions lead to a higher rate
-
4:36 - 4:41of Cesarean sections, and if at all
possible we'd like to avoid that. -
4:41 - 4:42And then I said,
-
4:42 - 4:45"And I really don't think
my due date is accurate." -
4:45 - 4:47(Laughter)
-
4:47 - 4:50And so this really stunned him
-
4:50 - 4:52and he looked sort of puzzled
-
4:52 - 4:54and I said, "You may not know this,
-
4:54 - 4:56but pregnancy due dates are calculated
-
4:56 - 4:58assuming that you have
a standard 28-day cycle, -
4:58 - 4:59and my cycle ranges —
-
4:59 - 5:03sometimes it's 27,
sometimes it's up to 38 — -
5:03 - 5:05and I have been collecting
the data to prove it. -
5:05 - 5:08(Laughter)
-
5:10 - 5:14And so we ended up leaving the hospital
that day without being induced. -
5:15 - 5:19We actually had to sign a waiver
to walk out of the hospital. -
5:21 - 5:25And I'm not advocating
that you not listen to your doctors, -
5:25 - 5:27because even with our first child,
-
5:27 - 5:30we were induced at 38 weeks;
cervical fluid was low. -
5:30 - 5:33I'm not anti-medical intervention.
-
5:33 - 5:36But why were confident to leave that day?
-
5:37 - 5:39Well, we had data
that told a different story. -
5:40 - 5:43We had been collecting data for six years.
-
5:44 - 5:47I had this temperature data,
-
5:47 - 5:48and it told a different story.
-
5:48 - 5:53In fact, we could probably pretty
accurately estimate conception. -
5:56 - 5:58Yeah, that's a story you want to tell
-
5:58 - 6:01at your kid's wedding reception.
(Laughter) -
6:01 - 6:04I remember like it was yesterday.
-
6:04 - 6:07My temperature was a sizzling 97.8 degrees
-
6:07 - 6:10as I stared into your father's eyes.
(Laughter) -
6:11 - 6:16Oh, yeah. Twenty-two more years,
we're telling that story. -
6:18 - 6:21But we were confident to leave
because we had been collecting data. -
6:21 - 6:23Now, what does that data look like?
-
6:23 - 6:26Here's a standard chart
-
6:26 - 6:29of a woman's waking body temperature
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6:29 - 6:30during the course of a cycle.
-
6:30 - 6:32So from the beginning
of the menstrual cycle -
6:32 - 6:34till the beginning of the next.
-
6:34 - 6:36You'll see that the temperature
is not random. -
6:36 - 6:38Clearly there is a low pattern
-
6:38 - 6:40at the beginning of her cycle
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6:40 - 6:43and then you see this jump
and then a higher set of temperatures -
6:43 - 6:45at the end of her cycle.
-
6:45 - 6:47So what's happening here?
-
6:47 - 6:49What is that data telling you?
-
6:49 - 6:52Well, ladies,
at the beginning of our cycle, -
6:52 - 6:55the hormone estrogen
is dominant and that estrogen -
6:55 - 6:59causes a suppression
of your body temperature. -
6:59 - 7:02And at ovulation,
your body releases an egg -
7:02 - 7:06and progesterone takes over,
pro-gestation. -
7:07 - 7:09And so your body heats up in anticipation
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7:11 - 7:15of housing this new little fertilized egg.
-
7:15 - 7:18So why this temperature jump?
-
7:18 - 7:21Well, think about
when a bird sits on her eggs. -
7:21 - 7:24Why is she sitting on them?
-
7:24 - 7:26She wants to keep them warm,
-
7:26 - 7:27protect them and keep them warm.
-
7:27 - 7:30Ladies, this is exactly
what our bodies do every month, -
7:30 - 7:32they heat up in anticipation
-
7:32 - 7:34of keeping a new little life warm.
-
7:34 - 7:38And if nothing happens,
if you are not pregnant, -
7:38 - 7:42then estrogen takes back over
and that cycle starts all over again. -
7:42 - 7:44But if you do get pregnant, sometimes you
-
7:44 - 7:47actually see another shift
in your temperatures -
7:47 - 7:50and it stays elevated
for those whole nine months. -
7:50 - 7:54That's why you see those pregnant women
just sweating and hot, -
7:54 - 7:57because their temperatures are high.
-
7:57 - 8:01Here's a chart that we had
about three or four years ago. -
8:01 - 8:03We were really very excited
about this chart. -
8:03 - 8:06You'll see the low temperature level
-
8:06 - 8:09and then a shift and for about five days,
-
8:09 - 8:11that's about the time
it takes for the egg to travel -
8:11 - 8:14down the fallopian tube and implant,
-
8:14 - 8:17and then you see those temperatures
start to go up a little bit. -
8:17 - 8:21And in fact, we had
a second temperature shift, -
8:21 - 8:25confirmed with a pregnancy test
that were indeed pregnant -
8:25 - 8:28with our first child, very exciting.
-
8:28 - 8:30Until a couple of days later
-
8:30 - 8:34I saw some spotting
and then I noticed heavy blood flow, -
8:34 - 8:38and we had in fact
had an early stage miscarriage. -
8:41 - 8:43Had I not been taking my temperature
-
8:43 - 8:47I really would have just thought
my period was late that month, -
8:47 - 8:49but we actually had data to show
-
8:49 - 8:52that we had miscarried this baby,
-
8:52 - 8:54and even though this data
revealed a really -
8:54 - 8:55unfortunate event in our lives,
-
8:55 - 8:58it was information
that we could then take to our doctor. -
8:58 - 9:00So if there was a fertility issue
or some problem, -
9:00 - 9:02I had data to show:
-
9:02 - 9:04Look, we got pregnant,
our temperature shifted, -
9:04 - 9:06we somehow lost this baby.
-
9:06 - 9:09What is it that we can do
to help prevent this problem? -
9:09 - 9:12And it's not just about temperatures
-
9:12 - 9:15and it's not just about fertility;
-
9:15 - 9:19we can use data about our bodies
to tell us a lot of things. -
9:19 - 9:22For instance, did you know that taking
your temperature can tell you a lot -
9:22 - 9:26about the condition of your thyroid?
-
9:26 - 9:29So, your thyroid works a lot like
the thermostat in your house. -
9:29 - 9:32There is an optimal temperature
that you want in your house; -
9:32 - 9:34you set your thermostat.
-
9:34 - 9:36When it gets too cold in the house,
your thermostat kicks in -
9:36 - 9:39and says, "Hey, we need
to blow some heat around." -
9:39 - 9:42Or if it gets too hot,
your thermostat registers, -
9:42 - 9:45"Turn the A.C. on. Cool us off."
-
9:45 - 9:48That's exactly how your thyroid works
in your body. -
9:48 - 9:51Your thyroid tries to keep
an optimal temperature -
9:51 - 9:52for your body.
-
9:52 - 9:55If it gets too cold, your thyroid
says, "Hey, we need to heat up." -
9:55 - 9:58If it gets too hot,
your thyroid cools you down. -
9:58 - 10:02But what happens when your
thyroid is not functioning well? -
10:02 - 10:04When it doesn't function, then it shows up
-
10:04 - 10:06in your body temperatures,
-
10:06 - 10:08they tend to be lower than normal
or very erratic. -
10:08 - 10:10And so by collecting this data
-
10:10 - 10:12you can find out information
about your thyroid. -
10:12 - 10:16Now, what is it, if you had a thyroid
problem and you went to the doctor, -
10:16 - 10:18your doctor would actually test
-
10:18 - 10:22the amount of thyroid stimulating hormone
in your blood. -
10:23 - 10:26Fine. But the problem with that test is
-
10:26 - 10:29it doesn't tell you how active
the hormone is in your body. -
10:29 - 10:31So you might have
a lot of hormone present, -
10:31 - 10:33but it might not be
actively working to regulate -
10:33 - 10:34your body temperature.
-
10:34 - 10:36So just by collecting
your temperature every day, -
10:36 - 10:39you get information
about the condition of your thyroid. -
10:39 - 10:41So, what if you don't want to take
your temperature every day? -
10:41 - 10:43I advocate that you do,
-
10:43 - 10:45but there are tons
of other things you could take. -
10:45 - 10:48You could take your blood pressure,
you could take your weight — -
10:48 - 10:49yeah, who's excited about
-
10:49 - 10:52taking their weight every day?
(Laughter) -
10:52 - 10:56Early on in our marriage,
Donald had a stuffy nose -
10:56 - 11:00and he had been taking
a slew of medications -
11:00 - 11:04to try to relieve his stuffy nose,
to no avail. -
11:04 - 11:08And so, that night he comes
and he wakes me up and he says, -
11:08 - 11:12"Honey, I can't breath out of my nose."
-
11:12 - 11:16And I roll over and I look, and I said,
"Well, can you breath out of your mouth?" -
11:17 - 11:18(Laughter)
-
11:19 - 11:24And he goes,
"Yes, but I can't breath out of my nose!" -
11:25 - 11:28And so like any good wife, I rush him
-
11:28 - 11:30to the emergency room
-
11:31 - 11:33at 2 o'clock in the morning.
-
11:33 - 11:35And the whole time
I'm driving and I'm thinking, -
11:35 - 11:38you can't die on me now.
-
11:38 - 11:40We just got married,
-
11:41 - 11:45people will think I killed you!
(Laughter) -
11:46 - 11:49And so, we get to the emergency room,
and the nurse sees us, -
11:49 - 11:52and he can't breath out of his nose,
-
11:52 - 11:54and so she brings us to the back
and the doctor says, -
11:54 - 11:56"What seems to be the problem?"
-
11:56 - 11:58and he goes,
"I can't breath out of my nose." -
11:58 - 12:00And he said,
"You can't breath out of your nose? -
12:00 - 12:04No, but he can breath
out of his mouth. (Laughter) -
12:05 - 12:08He takes a step back
and he looks at both of us -
12:08 - 12:11and he says,
"Sir, I think I know the problem. -
12:11 - 12:13You're having a heart attack.
-
12:13 - 12:15I'm going to order an EKG and a CAT scan
-
12:15 - 12:17for you immediately."
-
12:19 - 12:22And we are thinking, no, no, no.
It's not a heart attack. -
12:22 - 12:24He can breathe, just out of his mouth.
-
12:24 - 12:27No, no, no, no, no.
-
12:28 - 12:31And so we go back and forth
with this doctor -
12:31 - 12:34because we think
this is the incorrect diagnosis, -
12:34 - 12:37and he's like, "No really, it'll be fine,
just calm down." -
12:37 - 12:39And I'm thinking, how do you calm down?
-
12:39 - 12:42But I don't think
he's having a heart attack. -
12:42 - 12:45And so fortunately for us, this doctor
was at the end of the shift. -
12:45 - 12:47So this new doctor comes in,
he sees us clearly distraught, -
12:47 - 12:50with a husband who can't breath
-
12:50 - 12:53out of his nose.
(Laughter) -
12:53 - 12:56And he starts asking us questions.
-
12:56 - 12:59He says, "Well, do you two exercise?"
-
13:00 - 13:06We ride our bikes,
we go to the gym occasionally. -
13:08 - 13:09(Laughter)
-
13:09 - 13:12We move around.
-
13:12 - 13:15And he says, "What were you doing
just before you came here?" -
13:15 - 13:18I'm thinking, I was sleeping, honestly.
-
13:18 - 13:20But okay,
what was Donald doing just before? -
13:20 - 13:23So Donald goes into this slew
of medications he was taking. -
13:23 - 13:27He lists, "I took this decongestant
and then I took this nasal spray," -
13:27 - 13:29and then all of a sudden
a lightbulb goes off and he says, -
13:29 - 13:33"Oh! You should never mix this
decongestant with this nasal spray. -
13:33 - 13:36Clogs you up every time.
Here, take this one instead." -
13:36 - 13:38He gives us a prescription.
-
13:38 - 13:40We're looking at each other,
and I looked at the doctor, -
13:40 - 13:42and I said,
"Why is it that it seems like you -
13:42 - 13:45were able to accurately diagnose
his condition, -
13:45 - 13:47but this previous doctor wanted to order
-
13:47 - 13:49an EKG and a CAT scan?"
-
13:49 - 13:51And he looks at us and says,
-
13:51 - 13:56"Well, when a 350-pound man walks in the
emergency room and says he can't breath, -
13:56 - 13:58you assume he's having a heart attack
-
13:58 - 14:00and you ask questions later."
-
14:01 - 14:06Now, emergency room doctors
are trained to make decisions quickly, -
14:06 - 14:09but not always accurately.
-
14:09 - 14:11And so had we had some information
-
14:11 - 14:14about our heart health to share with him,
-
14:14 - 14:17maybe we would have gotten a better
diagnosis the first time. -
14:17 - 14:20I want you to consider
the following chart, -
14:20 - 14:21of systolic blood pressure measurements
-
14:21 - 14:25from October 2010 to July 2012.
-
14:25 - 14:27You'll see that these measurements start
-
14:27 - 14:30in the prehypertension/hypertension zone,
-
14:32 - 14:34but over about the course
of a year and a half -
14:34 - 14:37they move into the normal zone.
-
14:37 - 14:40This is about the heart rate
of a healthy 16-year-old. -
14:41 - 14:45What story is this data telling you?
-
14:45 - 14:48Obviously it's the data from someone
-
14:48 - 14:51who's made a drastic transformation,
-
14:51 - 14:55and fortunately for us,
that person happens to be here today. -
14:56 - 15:00So that 350-pound guy that walked
into the emergency room with me -
15:00 - 15:04is now an even sexier and healthier
-
15:04 - 15:09225-pound guy,
and that's his blood pressure trace. -
15:10 - 15:13So over the course of that year and a half
-
15:13 - 15:15Donald's eating changed
-
15:15 - 15:18and our exercise regimen changed,
-
15:18 - 15:20and his heart rate responded,
-
15:20 - 15:22his blood pressure responded
to that change -
15:22 - 15:24that he made in his body.
-
15:24 - 15:26So what's the take-home message
-
15:26 - 15:29that I want you to leave with today?
-
15:29 - 15:34By taking ownership of your data
just like we've done, -
15:34 - 15:38just by taking this daily measurements
about yourself, -
15:38 - 15:40you become the expert on your body.
-
15:40 - 15:42You become the authority.
-
15:42 - 15:45It's not hard to do.
-
15:45 - 15:47You don't have to have
a Ph.D. in statistics -
15:47 - 15:48to be an expert in yourself.
-
15:48 - 15:50You don't have to have a medical degree
-
15:50 - 15:52to be your body's expert.
-
15:52 - 15:55Medical doctors,
they're experts on the population, -
15:55 - 15:59but you are the expert on yourself.
-
15:59 - 16:00And so when two of you come together,
-
16:00 - 16:02when two experts come together,
-
16:02 - 16:05the two of you are able
to make a better decision -
16:05 - 16:07than just your doctor alone.
-
16:07 - 16:10Now that you understand
the power of information -
16:10 - 16:13that you can get through
personal data collection, -
16:13 - 16:16I'd like you all to stand
and raise your right hand. -
16:16 - 16:18(Laughter)
-
16:18 - 16:20Yes, get it up.
-
16:24 - 16:30I challenge you to take ownership
of your data. -
16:31 - 16:34And today, I hereby confer upon you
-
16:35 - 16:38a TEDx associate's degree
in elementary statistics -
16:38 - 16:43with a concentration
in time-dependent data analysis -
16:44 - 16:48with all the rights and privileges
appertaining thereto. -
16:48 - 16:51And so the next time
you are in your doctor's office, -
16:51 - 16:54as newly inducted statisticians,
-
16:54 - 16:57what should always be your response?
-
16:57 - 17:00Audience: Show me the data!
Talithia Williams: I can't hear you! -
17:00 - 17:01Audience: Show me the data!
-
17:01 - 17:02TW: One more time!
-
17:02 - 17:04Audience: Show me the data!
-
17:04 - 17:05TW: Show me the data.
-
17:05 - 17:06Thank you.
-
17:06 - 17:08(Applause)
- Title:
- Show Me the Data: Becoming an Expert on Yourself: Talithia Williams at TEDxClaremontColleges
- Description:
-
Dr. Talithia Williams' talk explores how each of us can begin to collect data about ourselves that can provide insight into our personal health.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDxTalks
- Duration:
- 17:10