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DON'T PANIC — Hans Rosling showing the facts about population

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    We live in a world of relentless change.
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    Huge migrations of people to new mega cities
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    filling soaring skyscrapers
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    and vast slums.
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    Ravenous appetites for fuel and food,
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    unpredictable climate change
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    and all this in a world where the population is still growing.
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    Should we be worried?
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    Should we be scared?
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    How to make sense of it all?
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    7 billion people now live on this planet of ours. Isn't it beautiful?
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    But when some people think about the world and its future, they panic!
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    Others prefer not to think about it all.
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    But tonight I’m going to show you how things really are.
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    My name is Hans Rosling. I’m a statistician at….
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    NO, NO, NO, NO! Don’t switch off!
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    Because with the latest data from all countries I’m going to show you the world in a new way.
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    I’m going to tell you how world population is changing
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    and what today’s data tell us about how the future of the world will be.
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    We undeniably face huge challenges
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    but the good news is that the future may not be quite as gloomy
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    and that mankind is already doing better than many of you think!
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    Don't Panic!
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    The Truth About Population
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    with professor Hans Rosling
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    Babies.
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    Each one a blessing.
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    But many people think population growth is out of control.
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    Some even talk of a population bomb!
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    Are they right?
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    So where are we with population today? And how did we get here?
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    I am going to tell you a history about everyone who ever lived!
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    Well, at least during the last some 1000 years.
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    Here we go.
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    I give you 2 axes.
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    This is time in years, and this one here is world population in billions.
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    In the year 10,000 BC, when the first people where becoming farmers, then the archeologists estimate
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    that the world population was only 10 million.
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    Imagine: 10 million! That’s is like Sweden today!
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    A world of only Swedes!
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    But then, as the millennia passed by, more farmers, food and people, and great empires could emerge.
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    Egypt, China, India, and finally Europe.
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    And population continued to grow, but very slowly.
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    And I stop here, at the year 1800.
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    Because it was in 1800 that the world population became 1 billion.
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    Imagine… All that time, the population growth was just a tiny fraction of a percent, through thousands of years.
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    But here in 1800, with the industrial revolution, everything changed and population started to grow faster.
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    In little more than 100 years, it reached 2 billions.
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    And then, when I was in school, it was 3 billion.
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    And many people said: ‘The planet can not support more people.’ Even experts said that.
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    But what happened was this...
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    We became 4 billion… 5 billion… 6 billion… 7 billion!
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    Imagine… More than half of the world population have been added during my lifetime.
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    And the number is still rising.
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    Most of the population growth, in recent years, has been in Asian countries.
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    Like here, in Bangladesh, where the population has tripled during my lifetime.
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    From 50 million to more than 150 million.
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    It is now one of the most densely populated countries in the world.
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    Some 15 million already live in the very crowded capital Dhaka.
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    People here, whether in the city or the countryside, are intensely concerned about the size of families.
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    But a new Bangladesh is emerging…
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    Like the Khan family. Mom Taslima, daughters Tanjina and little Sadia.
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    And dad Hannan.
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    Women take agest to get ready, men don't take as long.
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    If you're going to wipe it off with your hands, why put it on?
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    Both Taslima and Hannan come from large families themselves.
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    But they’ve decided to have just 2 children.
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    In Bangladesh there's slogan you hear everywhere.
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    "No more than two kids - one is even better!"
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    It's lucky I only have two kids.
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    If I had more I couldn't afford it.
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    With two kids, I can buy what they want.
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    My pockets are empty now!
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    Taslima and Hannan are part of a cultural shift away from big families.
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    And for Taslima, it has also become a job.
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    She works for the government Family Planning Service
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    which employs women like her in every village.
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    She goes door-to-door, to try to help others to have smaller families too.
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    When was your last period?
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    It was on the 22nd.
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    So you're not using any method of contraception?
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    Won't it be a problem if you conceive?
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    I don't get pregnant easily.
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    But you already have two children.
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    I don't have time to go to the clinic.
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    Taslima offers advice, moral support and most importantly,
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    a range of contraceptives.
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    You've got three daughters - do you really want to have any more kids?
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    It's up to the father.
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    You're the one giving birth, why is it up to him?
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    You have to go through the pain, he doesn't.
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    Who has to go through the pain?
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    I go through the pain, but if he wants a boy what can I do?
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    Here's the pill, take them when you start your period
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    It can be hard to get through to them when they're less educated.
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    But gradually we're getting the message across.
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    So how successful has Taslima and Bangladesh been in reducing fertility rate?
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    That is the number of babies born per woman.
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    In Sweden we set up the Gapminder Foundation
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    to make the world’s data available in a way that everyone can understand.
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    So I can show you the situation in Bangladesh and what has happened.
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    Here, a horizontal axis, babies per woman.
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    All the way from 1 to 2…. 7 to 8.
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    and here a vertical axis, that is lifespan,
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    life expectancy, how many years a newborn can expect to live.
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    From 30 all the way up to 90.
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    Now… we start in 1972
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    a very important year for Bangladesh, the first full year of independence.
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    That year, Bangladesh was over there
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    and they had on average 7 babies per woman
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    and lifespan was less than 50 years.
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    So what has happened after independence?
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    Has life become longer in Bangladesh? Have children become fewer?
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    Here is the data. I start Bangladesh
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    Indeed, life is getting longer and babies, fewer… 6… 5…
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    and life even longer… 4…3…
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    and they land now almost in 2. It’s 2.2. And the lifespan is 70.
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    It’s absolutely amazing! In 40 years, Bangladesh has gone
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    from 7… 6… 5… 4… 3… 2…
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    It’s a miracle that has happened in Bangladesh!
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    But is it only in Bangladesh? Well, I will show you the whole world.
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    I will go back 50 years in time, to 1963.
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    Here are all the countries.
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    These green ones are America, north and south. The yellow are Europe, east and west.
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    Blue is Africa, north and south of the Sahaara. And red is Asia, and we include Australia and New Zealand.
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    The size of the bubble shows the size of the population. Look:
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    The big ones over there are China and India. And Bangladesh is just behind.
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    In 1963 the average number of babies born per woman in the world was 5.
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    But it was a divided world… can you see that?
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    These countries over here, the developed countries, had small families and long lives.
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    And then there were the developing countries, and they had large families and short lives.
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    Very few countries were in between.
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    But now we will see what has happened.
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    I start the world!
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    Here we go…
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    You can see China, the big bubble, is getting better health
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    and then they start family planning, they move along to smaller families.
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    The big green, look at Mexico, it is coming there!
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    This is Brazil, also the green in Latin America.
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    And here India is following. The big red bubbles are Asian countries going this way.
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    Many Africans are still with ‘many babies born per woman’.
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    And then Bangladesh over there overtakes India on its way to the small family.
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    And now almost all countries go up to this part, even Africa now starts to move up.
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    Oooh! That was the earthquake in Haiti!
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    And now everyone ends up there. What a change we have!
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    Today, the average in the world is 2.5
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    It used to be 5 fifty years ago.
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    The world has changed: the average number of babies born per woman has gone from 5 to 2.5
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    And it is still decreasing…. What a big change!
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    People would think that Bangladesh and countries like that are some sort of epicenter of a population bomb.
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    They couldn’t be more wrong.
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    To me, health workers like Mrs. Taslima and their colleagues,
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    who have taken their countries from this side… all over… in a few decades
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    to much better health and small families, they are the heroes of our time!
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    It is an amazing change that has happened.
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    We no longer live in a divided world.
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    But how much do people know about this amazing change?
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    At Gapminder we not only show data, we also measure how much people know or don't know about the world.
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    So we did the first survey in Sweden. The results were depressing!
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    We did our second survey in Britain. We had high hopes, because the British had been all over the place.
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    We thought we would get good results here.
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    The first question we asked was: how many babies do women have on average in Bangladesh?
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    And we gave four alternatives: 2.5, 3.5, 4.5 or 5.5
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    This is the result of the British survey.
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    But you know the right answer: it’s 2.5
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    Only 12 percent of the British got it right.
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    So we thought that perhaps it was those with low education who dragged down the result.
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    So we segmented those who had been to the fine British universities and had an university degree.
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    And here they are. This is the result.
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    If anything, they did worse!
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    So now you may conclude that the British lack knowledge about the world.
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    No, no!
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    What if I would have asked this chimp and his friends?
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    I would have written the different answers on bananas and let them pick one banana each.
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    This result I would get.
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    Of course chimps know nothing about Bangladesh.
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    But by pure randomness, they would pick twice as many correct answers as the British.
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    More than half of the British people think it’s 4.5 or more.
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    The problem here is not lack of knowledge, it is preconceived ideas.
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    The British can not even imagine, cannot even guess
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    that women in Banglash have 2.5 babies in average. And it is really 2.2 already.
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    This is what the British don’t know: that Taslima and her family are the norm in Bangladesh, the most common family size.
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    And it’s not only there, it’s all over the world. In Brazil, 2 child families.
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    Vietnam, 2 child families.
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    And even in India, the most common family size is 2 children today.
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    And also if you go to the African continent, you go the big cities like Addis Ababa.
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    There are less than 2 children per woman in Addis Ababa.
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    There can be Muslin, Buddhist, Hindu, Christian…
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    There is not one religion, not one culture, not one continent
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    where 2 child families can not happen.
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    This change from big families down to 2 child families
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    is one of the most important things that have happened in the world during my lifetime.
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    It is unprecedented in human history!
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    Here we are, back in Bangladesh.
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    Let’s find the reasons behind this historic and continuing shift from large to small families.
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    Almost all girls in Muslim Bangladesh, like 15-year-old Tanjina, go to school today.
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    The government now even pays families money to keep their daughters on at secondary level.
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    At Tanjina’s school boys are now outnumbered by girls.
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    What type of family is this?
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    A big family!
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    Will they be short of food?
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    You could hardly miss the point of this lesson.
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    What type of family is this?
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    Will they face any difficulties?
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    No!
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    Education is effective and there are also new opportunities for Bangladeshi women.
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    Despite continuing inequalities, there are more jobs and Tanjina is aiming high.
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    I love going to school
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    In my mother's day, they used to get married young
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    They had no chance to study
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    But now we can have big dreams of becoming a doctor or an engineer
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    More and more young women here are seeing how different things could be for them.
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    I can't imagine how you got married at 17
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    I couldn't dream of getting married in two years' time
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    It's impossible
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    We didn't understand back then
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    But people know better now
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    So what age are you thinking of getting married?
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    Twenty five
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    I'll finish my education and get a job
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    I'll become a doctor and get married after that
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    You're very smart!
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    It is wonderful to see Taslima so full of hope for a bright future for her two daughters.
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    But one essential transformation underpins the change in Bangladesh.
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    It’s a dramatic improvement in child survival.
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    It’s Ramadan, the Muslim month of fasting and reflection.
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    At this auspicious time, Hanan is helping his parents to tend the family graveyard.
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    Press the soil down with your hands
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    Three of Hannan’s siblings died when they were very young. They are buried here.
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    They died of measles
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    We cried so much, it was so sad
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    If doctors had been there they could have been treated
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    One might have survived
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    How can I forget? I will remember them as long as I live
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    Back when Hannan’s parents where a young couple,
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    1 in 5 children in Bangladesh died before they reached 5 years of age.
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    All families lived with a constant fear of losing one or more children.
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    You'd carry on having one child after another
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    Then if one died, you wouldn't have just one left
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    That's how it was
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    We didn't think we were having too many children, or what their future would be
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    In the last few decades Bangladesh has made great progress in basic health, particularly in child survival.
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    Vaccines, treatments of infections and better nutrition and hygiene
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    have all saved the lives of millions of children.
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    And as parents have come to see that all their children are now likely to survive,
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    the biggest obstacle to family planning has at last gone.
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    Even in the slums of Dhaka, women now have on average just 2 children.
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    Child survival drives everything.
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    Let’s go back into history.
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    Why did the world population grow so slowly before 1800?
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    Throughout history, all historical records show us that, on average
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    2 parents got more or less 6 children.
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    But that looks as a very fast population growth. So why didn’t it grow?
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    Because 1… 2… 3… 4 of the children died before growing up to become parents themselves.
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    People in the past never lived in ecological balance with nature,
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    they died in ecological balance with nature.
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    It was utterly tragic!
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    But with the industrial revolution, this changed.
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    Better wages, more food, tapped water, better sanitation, soap, medical advances....
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    So from all these advances, why did the population grow? Was it because they got more children?
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    No! In 1963 when I was at school, actually the number of children per woman had decreased a little in the world, to 5.
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    And the reason for the fast population growth was the improved children survival.
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    4 survived at that time.
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    But still 1 out of 5 died, that was still terrible.
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    It’s only in the recent decades that most countries have taken big leaps forward in child survival and in family planning.
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    So that we are now approaching the new balance.
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    And it’s a nice balance: 2 parents on average get 2 children that survive.
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    We have families in a very happy balance.
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    This is the most normal family situation in the world today.
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    And what does it mean for the future here?
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    I will show you the best projection into the future,
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    from the finest demographers we have, at the Population Division of the United Nations.
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    And it looks like this.
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    It is going to continue first, up to 8… then it goes up to 9… and then it goes here…
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    But see: it’s slowing down!
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    By the end of the century it is becoming more flat there.
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    And if I do a close-up on this, you can see
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    that we are expecting a ’slowing down’ and the end of fast population growth.
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    But of course this is a projection that has a certain degree of uncertainty.
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    But we are sure that we are at the end of fast population growth within this century.
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    It is all due to a remarkable effect of the falling fertility rate.
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    Look here. If we go back into this
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    I will show this by showing you the number of children in the world.
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    The number of children from 0 to 15 years of age.
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    Here they come. Look:
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    The number of children there increased slowly… and then it also increased rapidly…
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    So by the turn of the century here
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    there were 2 billion children in the world.
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    To me that was an important year because that was when Doris was born. That’s my first grandchild.
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    She was born at a very special time for children in the world.
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    Because the specialist demographers estimate that from this year
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    the number of children in the world will continue like this.
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    It will not increase any longer.
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    By the end of the century we will still have 2 billion children in the world.
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    When Doris was born was when the world entered into the age of peak child.
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    The number of children are not increasing.
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    Now, this will confuse you.
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    Because… how can the total population grow like this, if the children don’t increase?
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    Where will all these adults come from?
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    And to explain that I have to leave this fancy digital stuff
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    and show you real powerful educational material we have developed.
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    I will show you the world population, ladies and gentleman...
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    in the form of foam blocks.
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    One block is 1 billion.
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    And that means that we have 2 billion children in the world.
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    Then we have 2 billion between 15 and 30 years of age.
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    These are rounded numbers.
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    We have 1 billion of 30 to 45 years of age,
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    we have 1 billion of 45 to 60 years of age
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    and then we have my block: 60 years and older. We are here on top.
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    This is the world population today.
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    You can see that there are 3 billions missing here.
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    Only a few of them are missing because they have died.
  • 24:13 - 24:16
    Most of them are missing because they were never born.
  • 24:16 - 24:22
    Because before 1980 there were much fewer children born in the world
  • 24:22 - 24:25
    because there were fewer women giving birth to children.
  • 24:25 - 24:27
    So this is what we have today.
  • 24:27 - 24:29
    Now what will happen in the future?
  • 24:29 - 24:32
    Do you know what happens to old people like me?
  • 24:33 - 24:34
    They die!
  • 24:34 - 24:38
    Yes! There was someone here who works in hospitals.
  • 24:39 - 24:41
    So… they die!
  • 24:41 - 24:46
    The rest grows 15 years older and have 2 billion children.
  • 24:47 - 24:50
    These ones are now old, time to die.
  • 24:50 - 24:54
    And then these ones grow 15 years older and they have 2 billion children.
  • 24:54 - 24:59
    This one die and the rest grow 15 years older and have 2 billion children.
  • 24:59 - 25:00
    Ah!
  • 25:00 - 25:03
    Without increasing the number of children,
  • 25:03 - 25:06
    without increasing the length of life,
  • 25:06 - 25:11
    we have 3 billion people more by this big and inevitable fill up of adults.
  • 25:11 - 25:15
    which happen just when the large young generations grow up.
  • 25:15 - 25:21
    Now there is one more detail, which is good news for the older ones here, like me.
  • 25:22 - 25:25
    It is estimated that the old people will live a little longer.
  • 25:25 - 25:29
    So we have to add 1 billion more for the old here on the top.
  • 25:29 - 25:33
    And I’m desperately hoping that I will be part of that group.
  • 25:33 - 25:39
    Because then I can live long and read annual statistics as they come, reporting every year…
  • 25:39 - 25:46
    But when I talk to many fine environmental activists, who have a good concern about the environment
  • 25:46 - 25:51
    they very often tell me ‘we have to stop population growth at 8 billion’.
  • 25:51 - 25:56
    When I then talk to them… first, they don’t know that we have reached peak child.
  • 25:56 - 26:04
    and then they are completely unaware that most of the remaining population growth is an inevitable fill up of adults.
  • 26:04 - 26:10
    So we will end up with more or less this amount of people.
  • 26:11 - 26:16
    So we know how many billions there will be. But what about where they live?
  • 26:16 - 26:19
    Now and in the future.
  • 26:21 - 26:26
    There you have the world and here are the 7 billion.
  • 26:26 - 26:33
    Out of the 7 billion, 1 live in the America, north and south together.
  • 26:33 - 26:38
    1 in Europe, 1 in Africa,
  • 26:38 - 26:42
    and 4 in Asia.
  • 26:42 - 26:44
    This is nowadays. But how to remember this?
  • 26:44 - 26:48
    I have a simple way of remembering this: I put up the numbers like this
  • 26:48 - 26:51
    and then I say this is the pin code of the world: 1114.
  • 26:52 - 26:55
    Now, what will happen up to mid-century?
  • 26:55 - 26:57
    That we know fairly well.
  • 26:57 - 27:02
    Europe… no increase. In fact, the European population is decreasing.
  • 27:02 - 27:06
    In America, a little more people. Mainly retired people in Latin America,
  • 27:06 - 27:10
    So it makes no difference, it's almost the same.
  • 27:10 - 27:13
    In Asia we will have 1 billion more.
  • 27:13 - 27:16
    and then the population growth in Asia is over.
  • 27:16 - 27:21
    In Africa, in the next 40 years, the population will double to 2 billion.
  • 27:21 - 27:25
    Now… to the end of the century
  • 27:25 - 27:30
    Well… we know quite well: no more people in Europe, no more in America, no more in Asia…
  • 27:30 - 27:35
    But Africa is set, as we have data today, for another doubling.
  • 27:35 - 27:40
    So there will be 4 billions in Africa.
  • 27:40 - 27:45
    At 2100, and probably the final pin code will be 1145.
  • 27:46 - 27:50
    So in 2100 there will be quite a different world.
  • 27:50 - 27:54
    The people who live in what I call the old west,
  • 27:54 - 27:59
    in west Europe and North America, will by then be less than 10 percent of the world population.
  • 27:59 - 28:03
    80 percent of the world population will be living in Asia and Africa.
  • 28:04 - 28:07
    But will there be resources enough to sustain them?
  • 28:08 - 28:14
    Well, this will be a huge challenge and nothing will come automatically.
  • 28:14 - 28:22
    But my take is that it is possible for all these billions to live well together.
  • 28:29 - 28:37
    Certainly it's easy to see the potential for a prosperous and peaceful Asia, with 5 billion people.
  • 28:37 - 28:40
    Japan, South Korea and others are already rich.
  • 28:40 - 28:49
    Following them on the road to wealth, are larger and larger parts of China, India, Indonesia and many other Asian countries.
  • 28:49 - 28:55
    Even in poorer Asian countries, more and more are getting a decent life.
  • 28:57 - 29:02
    But what about a future Africa, of as much as 4 billion?
  • 29:03 - 29:08
    Won’t most of them be living in terrible poverty?
  • 29:08 - 29:12
    I have seen extreme poverty in Africa.
  • 29:12 - 29:19
    30 years ago I spent the 2 most intense years of my life working as medical doctor
  • 29:19 - 29:25
    in one of the poorest countries, Mozambique, on the east coast of Africa.
  • 29:25 - 29:33
    Mozambique had just become independent after a long war against the colonial power Portugal.
  • 29:33 - 29:41
    My job was to be 1 of 2 doctors, we were both foreigners, for 300,000 people.
  • 29:41 - 29:47
    And this was the hospital. My wife was also there working as a midwife.
  • 29:47 - 29:50
    This is the entire staff of the hospital.
  • 29:50 - 29:58
    Those with white coats had the chance during the colonial period to get a professional training of at least one year.
  • 29:58 - 30:01
    The others… many of them couldn’t even read or write.
  • 30:01 - 30:06
    But they all worked with such dedication and motivation!
  • 30:06 - 30:12
    But the patients came with the worse diseases of extreme poverty
  • 30:12 - 30:15
    and our resources were often not enough,
  • 30:15 - 30:22
    and especially my skills as a young doctor, did not meet the need of the patients.
  • 30:22 - 30:26
    Mozambique is still today a very poor country.
  • 30:26 - 30:31
    But things have improved immensely since I was there, 30 years ago.
  • 30:36 - 30:43
    For a start, there is now a brand new hospital in the town where I worked 30 years ago.
  • 30:44 - 30:50
    The new, much bigger hospital has 15 doctors and 11 of them are Mozambicans.
  • 30:50 - 30:54
    All the staff are now well trained.
  • 30:55 - 31:01
    The director of the hospital is Dr. Cashimo, the obstetrician.
  • 31:02 - 31:04
    Everything indicates that…
  • 31:04 - 31:06
    it's going to be…
  • 31:06 - 31:08
    twins!
  • 31:09 - 31:13
    The transformation here is amazing to me!
  • 31:14 - 31:16
    We have accident and emergency…
  • 31:16 - 31:20
    and paediatric and orthopaedic surgery
  • 31:21 - 31:25
    We have big laboratories and a pharmacy that works 24 hours
  • 31:25 - 31:32
    They routinely save women in child birth with cesareans, something that was impossible when I was there.
  • 31:34 - 31:38
    Nowadays we can do it here, with a professional team…
  • 31:38 - 31:45
    in an operating room equipped as well as anywhere else in the world
  • 31:48 - 31:52
    Everything has improved so much.
  • 31:52 - 31:57
    Those born in Mozambique today should have a much brighter future!
  • 32:00 - 32:05
    Not just because of better health, but a booming economy too
  • 32:05 - 32:08
    with busy ports and markets
  • 32:08 - 32:12
    and new industries with lots of new jobs.
  • 32:16 - 32:20
    I know you might be thinking that this good news is just about cities and towns.
  • 32:20 - 32:22
    And it’s true!
  • 32:22 - 32:27
    The worse challenge is in the rural areas, where most people live.
  • 32:27 - 32:30
    But things are changing here too.
  • 32:33 - 32:39
    Deep in rural northern Mozambique lies the district of Mogovolas.
  • 32:40 - 32:45
    This is home for Olivia, Andre and their young family.
  • 32:47 - 32:51
    Like so many other poor people in the world, Olivia and Andre are farmers.
  • 32:52 - 32:56
    reliant on what they grow for what they eat.
  • 33:00 - 33:04
    It’s 4 a.m. and the day’s tasks beckon.
  • 33:07 - 33:09
    Andre heads straight to the fields.
  • 33:10 - 33:13
    Olivia first goes to fetch water.
  • 33:13 - 33:16
    Both have to walk miles to get anywhere.
  • 33:18 - 33:20
    It takes me two hours to get there
  • 33:22 - 33:26
    When it's busy it might take two hours
  • 33:28 - 33:32
    When I get back I'm tired and hungry
  • 33:34 - 33:40
    With no other means of transport, everything has to be carried.
  • 33:43 - 33:47
    Olivia and Andre have 8 children.
  • 33:47 - 33:50
    Fertility rates are still high in much of rural Africa.
  • 33:50 - 33:55
    And it’s the poorest families who have the most mouths to feed.
  • 33:55 - 33:59
    Anything this family can spare, they will sell.
  • 34:00 - 34:02
    I'm really struggling
  • 34:03 - 34:10
    I plant all kinds of crops but even with all the crops I grow…
  • 34:10 - 34:18
    I still don't make enough money to provide for my children
  • 34:19 - 34:23
    Yet economic growth is slowly trickling into the countryside.
  • 34:24 - 34:30
    I saved up for three years to get this roof for my house
  • 34:30 - 34:35
    Now Andre has set his sights on one thing he believes will change everything.
  • 34:36 - 34:40
    I desperately need a bicycle. I can't get anywhere without one
  • 34:42 - 34:47
    Bicycles can make a huge different to the lives of the rural poor.
  • 34:47 - 34:52
    They save hours everyday and get so much more done.
  • 34:52 - 34:56
    With a bicycle they can carry much heavier loads to the market.
  • 34:56 - 34:58
    and earn more money.
  • 34:58 - 35:00
    They can travel to find work
  • 35:00 - 35:04
    and if they get sick, they can reach a health clinic in time.
  • 35:06 - 35:13
    If I get a bicycle I'll be so happy
  • 35:13 - 35:17
    Because a house without bicycle is not a home
  • 35:18 - 35:24
    Andre and Olivia have been putting money away for 2 years. They haven’t quite enough yet.
  • 35:24 - 35:29
    Everything now depends on the sesame seeds, which they are just harvesting.
  • 35:29 - 35:34
    If they get can get a good price, they might just make it.
  • 35:36 - 35:40
    Andre and Olivia live in one of the poorest countries.
  • 35:40 - 35:44
    And they live in the rural area, which is the poorest part of that country.
  • 35:44 - 35:51
    So how many people are there in the world living like them? And how many are there that are poor?
  • 35:51 - 35:53
    I’m going to show you this yardstick.
  • 35:53 - 35:56
    Very simple. Poor… and … rich.
  • 35:56 - 35:59
    Here I have all the 7 billions again.
  • 36:00 - 36:05
    They are in a very simplified way, lined up there from the poorest to the richest.
  • 36:05 - 36:11
    Now, how much does the richest billion earn here, in dollars per day?
  • 36:11 - 36:13
    Let's look here.
  • 36:13 - 36:15
    Oh… oohhh…
  • 36:15 - 36:16
    It’s coming up, it’s coming up….
  • 36:16 - 36:18
    Ooh, yoi-yoi, yoi-yoi...
  • 36:18 - 36:20
    I can’t even reach. $100 a day.
  • 36:21 - 36:26
    Then let's look at the middle billion. How much do they earn?
  • 36:26 - 36:31
    It will come just yet…. Just $10.
  • 36:31 - 36:36
    And then I go over here to the poorest billion. How much to they get?
  • 36:36 - 36:38
    Well…
  • 36:38 - 36:40
    Just $1.
  • 36:41 - 36:43
    This is the difference of the world today.
  • 36:43 - 36:48
    The economists draw a line, which they call the line for extreme poverty.
  • 36:48 - 36:50
    A little above $1.
  • 36:50 - 36:56
    That’s when you hardly can have enough food to feed the family, you can not be sure that you have food all days.
  • 36:57 - 36:59
    1 billion is clearly below that still.
  • 36:59 - 37:03
    and second billion is sort of divided by that line.
  • 37:03 - 37:05
    And then the others are above it.
  • 37:06 - 37:10
    The poorest people can hardly afford to buy shoes.
  • 37:10 - 37:15
    and when they get shoes… the next thing they will save for is bicycle.
  • 37:15 - 37:17
    This is where Andre and Olivia are.
  • 37:17 - 37:21
    And after bicycle, you will go for the motorbike.
  • 37:21 - 37:24
    And then after the motorbike, it’s the car.
  • 37:25 - 37:29
    And I remember when my family got the first car, it was a small grey Volkswagen.
  • 37:30 - 37:35
    The first thing we did was to go to Norway on holiday, because Norway is so much more beautiful than Sweden.
  • 37:35 - 37:39
    It was a fantastic trip!
  • 37:39 - 37:45
    And now I’m in this group. I can go like the richest billion, we can go on holiday by airplanes.
  • 37:45 - 37:48
    Of course there are people who are much richer than the airplane people.
  • 37:49 - 37:55
    Some are so rich that they are even contemplating that they should go as tourists out into space.
  • 37:55 - 38:00
    And the difference in income from the airplane people to the very richest over there
  • 38:00 - 38:05
    is almost as big as it is from the airplane people here
  • 38:05 - 38:08
    all the way down to the poorest in that side.
  • 38:08 - 38:14
    Now, the most important to remember from this yardstick is this
  • 38:14 - 38:18
    To show you this I need my stepladder.
  • 38:18 - 38:23
    Sometimes you need some old well functioning technology also.
  • 38:23 - 38:26
    Here.
  • 38:29 - 38:33
    I can only reach up… Here they are, now I am at the top.
  • 38:33 - 38:40
    The problem for us living on $100 a day is that when we look down
  • 38:40 - 38:45
    on those who have $10 or $1 they look equally poor.
  • 38:45 - 38:47
    We can’t see the difference.
  • 38:47 - 38:51
    It looks as if everyone is living on the same amount of money.
  • 38:51 - 38:53
    And they say "oh, they are all poor".
  • 38:53 - 39:00
    No, I can assure you, because I’ve met and talked with people who live down here
  • 39:00 - 39:05
    and I can assure you that the people down here
  • 39:05 - 39:11
    they know very well how much better life would be if they would move from $1 to $10
  • 39:11 - 39:13
    10 times as much income.
  • 39:13 - 39:17
    This is a huge difference.
  • 39:17 - 39:23
    To understand this, this is what Olivia and Andre are trying to do now.
  • 39:23 - 39:27
    Each little step they take along this line here
  • 39:27 - 39:30
    from the shoes towards the bicycle
  • 39:30 - 39:36
    small as it may seem from far distance, make a huge difference in their life.
  • 39:37 - 39:46
    And if Andre and Olivia would get that bicycle it would speed them along to better life and better wealth up in this end.
  • 39:47 - 39:54
    Today, Andre and Olivia are preparing to sell the sesame crop they’ve been growing for many months.
  • 39:54 - 39:58
    The price used to be 25 Meticais
  • 39:59 - 40:02
    This year it's better
  • 40:02 - 40:05
    We hope to sell it for 40-45 Meticais
  • 40:06 - 40:12
    But Andre and Olivia will have to be careful if they are to get paid the proper price.
  • 40:12 - 40:20
    We've found out that some buyers have been doctoring the scales
  • 40:20 - 40:26
    So if we get it weighed ourselves and it's ten kilos…
  • 40:26 - 40:36
    … then take it to the buyers, they might tell us it's seven or eight
  • 40:36 - 40:39
    Andre is going to do the selling.
  • 40:39 - 40:45
    And for the last time, he hopes, he has to get help to transport the crop to market.
  • 40:48 - 40:51
    Andre now needs to keep his wits about him.
  • 40:53 - 40:57
    Hey, hey my friend. Do the calculations properly!
  • 40:58 - 41:03
    The deal is done. And Andre is happy with the price he’s got.
  • 41:06 - 41:09
    Now I'm going to spend my money!
  • 41:10 - 41:15
    It’s the moment the family have worked so hard for.
  • 41:33 - 41:38
    Andre’s journey to market took all morning to walk.
  • 41:38 - 41:43
    Now, in less than an hour, he can ride home.
  • 41:50 - 41:52
    You bought a bicycle!
  • 41:52 - 41:54
    Yes darling, I bought a bicycle!
  • 42:02 - 42:05
    The bicycle is put to use at once.
  • 42:06 - 42:08
    The children fetch water with it.
  • 42:08 - 42:12
    Andre carries more crops to the market
  • 42:12 - 42:18
    and, just as importantly, Olivia and Andre can now easily reach their lessons for adults
  • 42:18 - 42:23
    so they can learn better maths and how to read and write.
  • 42:25 - 42:31
    Now I want to save up to buy a motorbike to carry my wife and children
  • 42:32 - 42:34
    That's what I want next
  • 42:39 - 42:46
    It’s so great to see Olivia and Andre pedalling their way out of extreme poverty.
  • 42:46 - 42:49
    And they use the bicycle to go to literacy classes.
  • 42:50 - 42:55
    Education is so important for the progress of people and nations.
  • 42:55 - 43:01
    But how many know what has really happened with education in the world?
  • 43:01 - 43:05
    Time for the great British ignorance survey again
  • 43:05 - 43:06
    Here we go.
  • 43:06 - 43:11
    We asked what percent of adults in the world today are literate, can read and write?
  • 43:12 - 43:18
    Can I ask the audience? How many guess 20 percent? Hands up.
  • 43:18 - 43:20
    40 percent?
  • 43:22 - 43:24
    60 percent?
  • 43:24 - 43:27
    And 80 percent? Ah, ah, ah.
  • 43:27 - 43:31
    This is the result of the British sample.
  • 43:36 - 43:43
    By now you can use the result of the British survey to find out what the right answer is, isn’t it?
  • 43:43 - 43:47
    Of course, 80 percent is the right answer.
  • 43:47 - 43:51
    At least you were clearly better than the British average.
  • 43:51 - 43:55
    Yes, 80 percent the population in the world can read and write today.
  • 43:55 - 44:00
    Literacy is 80 percent… actually, the last figure is a little higher.
  • 44:00 - 44:05
    So if I would have compared that with the chimps again, you know...
  • 44:05 - 44:08
    once more you only get random results from the chimps.
  • 44:08 - 44:13
    But you get 3 times as many correct answers than you get from the British.
  • 44:13 - 44:17
    And now the university people
  • 44:17 - 44:20
    Perhaps they know this... oh, even worse.
  • 44:20 - 44:24
    What on earth are they teaching at British universities?
  • 44:24 - 44:31
    The common view about the world is outdated with several decades. The media has missed to communicate it.
  • 44:31 - 44:35
    But perhaps this is because the world is changing so fast.
  • 44:35 - 44:37
    Ladies and gentlemen,
  • 44:37 - 44:41
    I’m going to give you my all time favourite graph,
  • 44:41 - 44:49
    I’m going to show you the history of 200 countries during 200 years in less than 1 minute.
  • 44:49 - 44:55
    I have an axis for income. I have an axis for lifespan.
  • 44:55 - 45:00
    I start in 1800 and there are all the countries.
  • 45:00 - 45:04
    And back in 1800 everyone was down in the poor and sick corner, can you see?
  • 45:04 - 45:07
    Low lifespan, little money.
  • 45:07 - 45:09
    And here comes the effect of the Industrial Revolution.
  • 45:09 - 45:15
    Of course, the countries in West Europe are coming to better wealth, but are not getting much healthier in the beginning
  • 45:15 - 45:19
    And those on the colonial domination doesn’t benefit anything in there,
  • 45:19 - 45:21
    they remain there in the sick and poor corner.
  • 45:21 - 45:27
    And now health is slowly improving here, it’s getting up here and we are coming into the new century.
  • 45:27 - 45:32
    And the terrible First World War, and then the economic recession after that.
  • 45:32 - 45:34
    And then the Second World War.
  • 45:34 - 45:37
    Ooh. And now independence.
  • 45:37 - 45:41
    And with independence health is improving faster than it ever did in other countries here.
  • 45:42 - 45:47
    And now starts the fast economic catch-up of China and other Latin American countries.
  • 45:48 - 45:49
    They come on here you know.
  • 45:49 - 45:53
    And India is following there and the African countries are also following.
  • 45:53 - 45:56
    It’s an amazing change that has happened in the world.
  • 45:57 - 46:03
    You know, in the front here we have now US and UK, but they are not moving so fast any longer.
  • 46:03 - 46:05
    The fast movers are here in the middle.
  • 46:05 - 46:09
    China is moving very fast to catch up. And Bangladesh...
  • 46:09 - 46:15
    Look, Bangladesh is already here, now quite healthy and now starting with fast economic growth.
  • 46:15 - 46:20
    And Mozambique… Yes, Mozambique is back there, but they are now moving fast in the right direction.
  • 46:21 - 46:25
    But all this I show you are country averages.
  • 46:25 - 46:30
    What about people? Have people also got a better life?
  • 46:30 - 46:34
    I am now going to show you something which makes me very excited as a statistician.
  • 46:34 - 46:39
    I'm going to show you income distribution. The difference between people.
  • 46:39 - 46:42
    And to do that I take the bubbles back 50 years
  • 46:42 - 46:45
    and then we are going to look only at money.
  • 46:45 - 46:52
    And to do that we have to expand and adjust the axis, because the richest is so rich and the poorest is so poor,
  • 46:52 - 46:55
    so this will be a bigger difference than between the countries.
  • 46:55 - 47:00
    And now we let the country fall down here. This is the United States,
  • 47:00 - 47:03
    and spread to show the range within the country.
  • 47:03 - 47:06
    And I take down all the countries in the Americas.
  • 47:06 - 47:10
    And now you can see from the richest person to the poorest person.
  • 47:10 - 47:15
    And the height here shows you how many there are on each income level.
  • 47:15 - 47:19
    And now let’s take down Europe.
  • 47:19 - 47:23
    And on top of that I’m going to put Africa.
  • 47:23 - 47:30
    And finally, the region with most people, on top of everything, Asia.
  • 47:30 - 47:36
    Now, in 1963 the world was constituted by two humps:
  • 47:36 - 47:40
    first, the richest hump, it’s like a camel, isn’t it?
  • 47:40 - 47:44
    The first hump here with the richest is mainly Europe and the Americas.
  • 47:44 - 47:49
    And the poorest hump over here is mainly Asia and Africa.
  • 47:49 - 47:52
    And the poverty line was there.
  • 47:52 - 47:58
    Can you see how many people there were in extreme poverty 50 years ago?
  • 47:58 - 48:00
    And most of them were in Asia.
  • 48:00 - 48:06
    And people were saying Asia will never get out of poverty, exactly as some people are still saying about Africa today.
  • 48:06 - 48:08
    Now, what has happened?
  • 48:08 - 48:09
    I start the world.
  • 48:10 - 48:15
    And you can see that many people are born into poverty here, but Asia goes towards higher income
  • 48:15 - 48:19
    and 1 billion goes out of extreme poverty this way
  • 48:19 - 48:24
    and the whole shape of the world change, and that camel is dead.
  • 48:24 - 48:27
    It’s reborn as a dromedary.
  • 48:28 - 48:31
    And what you can see here, you know,
  • 48:31 - 48:36
    is the variation from the richest, that is most people in the middle,
  • 48:36 - 48:41
    and there’s a much smaller proportion of the world now in extreme poverty
  • 48:41 - 48:46
    but be careful, it’s still a lot of people: more than 1 billion people in extreme poverty.
  • 48:47 - 48:53
    Now the question is: can this ‘move out of extreme poverty’ now continue
  • 48:53 - 48:57
    for those in Africa and even for the new billions in Africa?
  • 48:59 - 49:07
    I think it’s possible, even probable, that most countries in Africa will rise out of poverty too.
  • 49:07 - 49:12
    It will need wise action and huge investment, but it can happen.
  • 49:14 - 49:20
    The many countries of Africa are not all advancing at the same pace.
  • 49:20 - 49:24
    A few are moving very fast, others are stuck in conflict.
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    But most, like Mozambique, are now making steady progress.
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    And what about feeding all the new African people in the future?
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    Yes, there are shortages today, but there is also much potential here.
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    Agricultural yields in Africa are just a fraction of what they could be with better technology.
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    And Africa’s rivers are barely tapped for irrigation.
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    One day Africa could hum with combine harvesters and tractors and grow food for many more billions.
  • 50:06 - 50:11
    And please, don’t imagine it’s just me who thinks Africa can make it.
  • 50:11 - 50:20
    The United Nations is about to set itself a new official goal: eliminating extreme poverty within 20 years.
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    Everyone understands it’s a huge challenge, but I seriously believe it’s possible.
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    Imagine if that would happen.
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    Now, what we have seen so far is that the rich end moves...
  • 50:35 - 50:41
    and the middle... it moves. But this poorest end is stuck.
  • 50:42 - 50:47
    It’s here in extreme poverty we find almost all the illiteracy.
  • 50:47 - 50:51
    Here we find high child mortality and still many babies born per woman.
  • 50:52 - 50:59
    It’s like extreme poverty reproduces itself if you don’t end it swiftly.
  • 50:59 - 51:05
    But Andre and Olivia, and people like that, work so hard to get away from it,
  • 51:05 - 51:11
    and if they only can get the right help from their government and from the world at large
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    with things like school, health, vaccines, roads, electricity, contraceptives,
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    then they will manage, but they will mainly manage by their own hard work.
  • 51:25 - 51:32
    Here we go… go on... follow Andre and Olivia across the line, you know.
  • 51:32 - 51:37
    It is possible within some decades… Yes!
  • 51:37 - 51:41
    But getting out of poverty is just the beginning.
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    People want to continue along this line to a good life.
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    But what does a good life mean?
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    For most people in the world the good life they are striving for will mean more machines and much more use of energy.
  • 51:58 - 52:07
    So there’s a problem. Because all this adds to one of the great threats for the future: severe climate change.
  • 52:07 - 52:12
    80 percent of the energy the world uses is still fossil fuels,
  • 52:12 - 52:17
    and the science shows that the climate may change dramatically in the future
  • 52:17 - 52:25
    because of the carbon dioxide emission from continuing to burn all these fossil fuels.
  • 52:26 - 52:31
    I’m not the best person to tell you how bad climate change will be
  • 52:31 - 52:34
    nor am I a specialist on how to prevent it.
  • 52:35 - 52:42
    What I can do is to show you data to make you understand who is the one that emits the carbon dioxide.
  • 52:42 - 52:45
    I will show this.
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    You remember the yardstick from the poorest billion to the richest billion
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    from the one who hardly can afford shoes to the one who flies with airplanes
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    Now this shows the total amount of fossil fuel used in the world during one year
  • 53:03 - 53:05
    coal, oil and natural gas.
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    And it represents more or less the total emission of carbon dioxide.
  • 53:09 - 53:13
    Now how much of that is used by the richest billion?
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    Half of it.
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    Now the second richest billion.
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    Half of what’s left.
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    And you understand what the third use
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    half of what’s left. And the others use hardly anything.
  • 53:28 - 53:38
    This are rounded numbers, but it clearly shows that almost all the fossil fuel is used here by the 1, 2, 3 richest billions
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    more than 85 percent they use.
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    Now the richest billion at least have stopped increasing, but we are yet to see whether they will decrease.
  • 53:48 - 53:53
    And in the coming decades it’s the economic growth of these 2
  • 53:53 - 53:57
    that will increase the fossil fuel use and the carbon dioxide emission.
  • 53:58 - 54:03
    Even if these ones over here come out of extreme poverty and get richer all the way to the motorbike
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    that doesn’t contribute much to the emission of carbon dioxide.
  • 54:08 - 54:15
    And regarding population growth, most of the additional billions in the next 40 years will be in this group here.
  • 54:15 - 54:20
    But still, if you ask people in the richest end they seem to get everything wrong.
  • 54:20 - 54:25
    They look down on the world from their very high emission and then they say:
  • 54:25 - 54:30
    “Oh, those over there, you cannot live like us, you will destroy the planet”.
  • 54:31 - 54:38
    You see, I find the argument from the people here catching up to be much more correct and logic.
  • 54:38 - 54:43
    They say: "Huh! Who are you to tell us that we can’t live like you?
  • 54:43 - 54:48
    You’d better change first if you want us to do it differently”.
  • 54:50 - 54:56
    There are many essentials to having a good life that billions in the world do not yet have.
  • 54:56 - 55:03
    Andre’s village and house, and so many like them, don’t even have electricity.
  • 55:04 - 55:07
    Mozambique has huge coal reserves
  • 55:07 - 55:14
    and if it and the other poorest countries build affordable new power-stations burning coal for electricity and industry
  • 55:14 - 55:20
    I don’t think anyone who emits more carbon should interfere.
  • 55:20 - 55:26
    Now, I’m going to ask you two questions that I often ask my Swedish students.
  • 55:26 - 55:31
    The first one is: how many of you have not travelled by an airplane this year?
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    Uh-huh.
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    Quite a few can do without flying. So the next question is:
  • 55:40 - 55:46
    How many of you have stayed away from washing machines and have hand washed all bedsheets,
  • 55:46 - 55:49
    clothes and laundry during the last year?
  • 55:50 - 55:53
    I thought so, no one.
  • 55:53 - 55:59
    Everyone who can afford to use a washing machine, even the hard core in the environmental movement.
  • 56:00 - 56:03
    And I still remember the day when my family got a washing machine.
  • 56:04 - 56:07
    It was 1st November 1952.
  • 56:07 - 56:11
    Grandma was invited to be the first to load the machine.
  • 56:11 - 56:15
    She had hand washed her entire life for a family of 9.
  • 56:15 - 56:24
    And when she loaded the machine she sat down on a footstool and she watched the entire programme during one hour.
  • 56:24 - 56:26
    She was absolutely mesmerised.
  • 56:26 - 56:32
    For my mother it also meant a lot of more free time to do other things.
  • 56:32 - 56:37
    She could read books for me, I think that’s what made me a professor.
  • 56:37 - 56:41
    No wonder we said thank you steel mill,
  • 56:41 - 56:46
    thank you washing powder factory, thank you electrical power station.
  • 56:48 - 56:50
    Now...
  • 56:50 - 56:57
    When thinking about where all this leave us I have just one little humble advice to you,
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    beside everything else: look at the data.
  • 57:01 - 57:03
    Look at the facts about the world.
  • 57:03 - 57:11
    And you will see where we are today and how we can move forwards with all these billions on our wonderful planet.
  • 57:12 - 57:16
    The challenges of extreme poverty have been greatly reduced
  • 57:16 - 57:21
    and it’s for the first time in history within our power to end it for good.
  • 57:23 - 57:27
    The challenge of population growth is, in fact, already being solved,
  • 57:28 - 57:31
    the number of children has stopped growing.
  • 57:31 - 57:37
    And for the challenge for climate change, we can still avoid the worst.
  • 57:37 - 57:44
    But that requires that the richest, as soon as possible,
  • 57:44 - 57:52
    find a way to set their use of resources and energy at a level that, step by step,
  • 57:52 - 57:58
    can be shared by 10 billions or 11 billions by the end of this century.
  • 57:58 - 58:01
    I’ve never called myself an optimist,
  • 58:01 - 58:04
    but I do say I’m a possibilist.
  • 58:04 - 58:08
    And I also say the world is much better than many of you think.
  • 58:08 - 58:11
    Thank you very much!
Title:
DON'T PANIC — Hans Rosling showing the facts about population
Description:

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Video Language:
English
Duration:
58:51

English subtitles

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