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03ps-02 Waning Immunity Solution

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    Now, let's look at the solution for a problem concerning waning immunity.
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    First things first, the constant waning time should be defined as 2 times the infectious time.
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    We can show this mathematically using the equations we have for the
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    derivatives of S, I, and R with their respective time.
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    We know that after a long period of time you want to attain a steady state situation
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    and there's a number of people in each portion to the population--
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    susceptible, infected, and recover stays constant.
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    Since they want to find out how long people should spend in the recovered stage,
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    we start with the time derivative of R and set that equal to zero.
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    Since you know that Rdot now has an extra term added to it or actually subtracted from it
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    showing the number of people that are leaving the recovered population
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    and going back to the infected population.
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    We can set these to terms right here equal to zero as well.
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    Just to note, I've used CINF to stand for the infectious time
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    and CWAN to stand for the waning time.
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    Now with just a little bit of Algebra, we come up with the answer that R=2I.
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    Since we know that we want the number of recovered people to be twice the number
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    of infected people, we can plug in this extra information to the equation above
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    and end up with the answer that the waning time is equal to twice the infectious time.
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    This put us directly into the next part of the problem.
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    We defined R to S in the same way that I to R is defined except that we replace infectious time
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    as the waning time and I step with R step as you can see right here.
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    Then moving on to our recursive relations, for each element in a step plus one position,
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    we need to take into account the value of the previous element in the number of people
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    added and subtracted from the population during each time step.
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    We know that the one thing that has changed in this model from the standard SIR model
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    is that people are now moving from the recovered population back to the susceptible population.
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    This is why we've needed to add in this extra term R to S, which we subtract from R and add to S.
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    Now, let's run the program and see what we get.
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    Here we see we end up with this fancy graph,
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    which has three different series for the three different parts of the population we're looking at.
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    Remembering how we set the initial values for S, I, and R.
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    Remember that the blue line here stands for the susceptible population.
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    The green line stands for the infected population,
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    and the red line stands for the recovered population.
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    And the maximum time that we're looking at 60 days,
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    you can see that the red line is graphing twice as many people over here
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    as the green line is marking, which is exactly the answer that we wanted to end up with.
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    Congratulations on successfully completing the first problem of Unit 3.
Title:
03ps-02 Waning Immunity Solution
Team:
Udacity
Project:
CS222 - Differential Equations
Duration:
02:34
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