Why we ignore obvious problems -- and how to act on them
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0:01 - 0:05So what if there were
a highly obvious problem -
0:05 - 0:07right in front of you?
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0:07 - 0:10One that everyone was talking about,
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0:10 - 0:12one that affected you directly.
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0:14 - 0:18Would you do everything
within your power to fix things -
0:18 - 0:19before they got worse?
-
0:21 - 0:22Don't be so sure.
-
0:22 - 0:27We are all much more likely
than any of us would like to admit -
0:27 - 0:30to miss what's right in front of our eyes.
-
0:30 - 0:31And in fact,
-
0:31 - 0:35we're sometimes most likely
to turn away from things -
0:35 - 0:40precisely because of the threat
that they represent to us, -
0:40 - 0:42in business, life and the world.
-
0:43 - 0:47So I want to give you an example
from my world, economic policy. -
0:49 - 0:52So when Alan Greenspan
was head of the Federal Reserve, -
0:52 - 0:58his entire job was to watch out
for problems in the US economy -
0:58 - 1:00and to make sure that they
didn't spin out of control. -
1:00 - 1:02So, after 2006,
-
1:02 - 1:05when real estate prices peaked,
-
1:05 - 1:09more and more and more
respected leaders and institutions -
1:09 - 1:12started to sound the alarm bells
-
1:12 - 1:16about risky lending
and dangerous market bubbles. -
1:17 - 1:21As you know, in 2008
it all came tumbling down. -
1:21 - 1:23Banks collapsed,
-
1:23 - 1:26global stock markets
lost nearly half their value, -
1:26 - 1:31millions and millions of people
lost their homes to foreclosure. -
1:31 - 1:32And at the bottom,
-
1:32 - 1:35nearly one in 10 Americans
was out of work. -
1:37 - 1:39So after things calmed down a little bit,
-
1:39 - 1:44Greenspan and many others
came out with a postmortem and said, -
1:44 - 1:46"Nobody could have predicted that crisis."
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1:47 - 1:49They called it "a black swan."
-
1:49 - 1:52Something that was unimaginable,
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1:52 - 1:56unforeseeable and completely improbable.
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1:58 - 2:00A total surprise.
-
2:00 - 2:03Except it wasn't always such a surprise.
-
2:03 - 2:08For example, my Manhattan apartment
nearly doubled in value -
2:08 - 2:10in less than four years.
-
2:10 - 2:13I saw the writing on the wall
and I sold it. -
2:13 - 2:16(Laughter)
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2:16 - 2:18(Applause)
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2:20 - 2:22So, a lot of other people
also saw the warning, -
2:22 - 2:24spoke out publicly
-
2:25 - 2:27and they were ignored.
-
2:27 - 2:31So we didn't know exactly
what the crisis was going to look like, -
2:31 - 2:33not the exact parameters,
-
2:33 - 2:35but we could all tell
-
2:35 - 2:41that the thing coming at us
was as dangerous, visible and predictable -
2:42 - 2:45as a giant gray rhino
charging right at us. -
2:46 - 2:48The black swan lends itself
-
2:48 - 2:52to the idea that we don't have
power over our futures. -
2:53 - 2:58And unfortunately, the less control
that we think we have, -
2:58 - 3:01the more likely we are to downplay it
-
3:01 - 3:03or ignore it entirely.
-
3:04 - 3:08And this dangerous dynamic
masks another problem: -
3:08 - 3:11that most of the problems
that we're facing -
3:11 - 3:13are so probable and obvious,
-
3:13 - 3:17they're things that we can see,
but we still don't do anything about. -
3:18 - 3:20So I created the gray rhino metaphor
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3:20 - 3:23to meet what I felt was an urgent need.
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3:23 - 3:26To help us to take a fresh look,
-
3:26 - 3:29with the same passion
that people had for the black swan, -
3:29 - 3:32but this time, for the things
that were highly obvious, -
3:32 - 3:36highly probable, but still neglected.
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3:39 - 3:41Those are the gray rhinos.
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3:41 - 3:44Once you start looking for gray rhinos,
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3:44 - 3:46you see them in the headlines every day.
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3:47 - 3:51And so what I see in the headlines
is another big gray rhino, -
3:51 - 3:55a new highly probable financial crisis.
-
3:56 - 4:00And I wonder if we've learned anything
in the last 10 years. -
4:00 - 4:04So if you listen
to Washington or Wall Street, -
4:04 - 4:11you could almost be forgiven for thinking
that only smooth sailing laid ahead. -
4:11 - 4:14But in China, where I spend a lot of time,
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4:14 - 4:17the conversation is totally different.
-
4:17 - 4:20The entire economic team,
-
4:20 - 4:23all the way up to president
Xi Jinping himself, -
4:23 - 4:25talk very specifically and clearly
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4:25 - 4:29about financial risks as gray rhinos,
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4:29 - 4:32and how they can tame them.
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4:32 - 4:33Now, to be sure, China and the US
-
4:33 - 4:35have very, very different
systems of government, -
4:35 - 4:38which affects what
they're able to do or not. -
4:38 - 4:41And many of the root causes
for their economic problems -
4:41 - 4:42are totally different.
-
4:42 - 4:46But it's no secret
that both countries have problems -
4:46 - 4:50with debt, with inequality
and with economic productivity. -
4:51 - 4:53So how come the conversations
are so different? -
4:54 - 4:56You could actually ask this question,
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4:56 - 4:58not just about countries,
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4:58 - 5:01but about just about everyone.
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5:01 - 5:05The auto companies that put safety first
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5:05 - 5:07and the ones that don't bother
to recall their shoddy cars -
5:07 - 5:10until after people die.
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5:12 - 5:18The grandparents who,
in preparing for the inevitable -- -
5:18 - 5:20the ones who have the eulogy written,
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5:21 - 5:23the menu for the funeral lunch.
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5:23 - 5:25(Laughter)
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5:25 - 5:26My grandparents did.
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5:26 - 5:27(Laughter)
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5:27 - 5:32And everything but the final date
chiseled into the gravestone. -
5:32 - 5:35But then you have the grandparents
on the other side, -
5:35 - 5:38who don't put
their final affairs in order, -
5:38 - 5:39who don't get rid of all the junk
-
5:39 - 5:41they've been hoarding
for decades and decades -
5:41 - 5:43and leave their kids to deal with it.
-
5:44 - 5:48So what makes the difference
between one side and the other? -
5:48 - 5:51Why do some people
see things and deal with them, -
5:51 - 5:53and the other ones just look away?
-
5:55 - 5:58So the first one has to do
with culture, society, -
5:58 - 6:00the people around you.
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6:01 - 6:04If you think that someone around you
-
6:04 - 6:06is going to help
pick you up when you fall, -
6:06 - 6:10you're much more likely
to see a danger as being smaller. -
6:11 - 6:15And that allows us to take
good chances, not just the bad ones. -
6:15 - 6:18For example, like risking criticism
-
6:18 - 6:21when you talk about the danger
that nobody wants you to talk about. -
6:21 - 6:24Or taking the opportunities
that are kind of scary, -
6:24 - 6:27so in their own way are gray rhinos.
-
6:27 - 6:31So the US has a very
individualist culture -- go it alone. -
6:32 - 6:34And paradoxically,
-
6:34 - 6:37this makes many Americans
much less open to change -
6:38 - 6:39and taking good risks.
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6:39 - 6:41In China, by contrast,
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6:41 - 6:45people believe that the government
is going to keep problems from happening, -
6:45 - 6:48which might not always be what happens,
but people believe it. -
6:48 - 6:50They believe they can rely
on their families, -
6:50 - 6:53so that makes them more likely
to take certain risks. -
6:53 - 6:55Like buying Beijing real estate,
-
6:55 - 6:59or like being more open about the fact
that they need to change direction, -
6:59 - 7:03and in fact, the pace of change in China
is absolutely amazing. -
7:04 - 7:06Second of all,
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7:06 - 7:08how much do you know about a situation,
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7:08 - 7:10how much are you willing to learn?
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7:11 - 7:15And are you willing to see things
even when it's not what you want? -
7:15 - 7:18So many of us are so unlikely
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7:18 - 7:21to pay attention to the things
that we just want to black out, -
7:21 - 7:22we don't like them.
-
7:22 - 7:26We pay attention to what we want to see,
what we like, what we agree with. -
7:27 - 7:30But we have the opportunity
and the ability -
7:30 - 7:32to correct those blind spots.
-
7:32 - 7:35I spend a lot of time
talking with people of all walks of life -
7:36 - 7:39about the gray rhinos in their life
and their attitudes. -
7:39 - 7:40And you might think
-
7:40 - 7:43that the people
who are more afraid of risk, -
7:43 - 7:44who are more sensitive to them,
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7:44 - 7:48would be the ones
who would be less open to change. -
7:48 - 7:50But the opposite is actually true.
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7:50 - 7:51I've found that the people
-
7:51 - 7:54who are wiling to recognize
the problems around them -
7:54 - 7:55and make plans
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7:55 - 7:59are the ones who are able
to tolerate more risk, good risk, -
7:59 - 8:01and deal with the bad risk.
-
8:01 - 8:04And it's because as we seek information,
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8:04 - 8:09we increase our power to do something
about the things that we're afraid of. -
8:10 - 8:12And that brings me to my third point.
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8:12 - 8:15How much control do you feel that you have
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8:15 - 8:17over the gray rhinos in your life?
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8:18 - 8:20One of the reasons we don't act
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8:20 - 8:23is that we often feel too helpless.
-
8:23 - 8:26Think of climate change,
it can feel so big, -
8:26 - 8:30that not a single one of us
could make a difference. -
8:30 - 8:33So some people go about life denying it.
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8:33 - 8:36Other people blame everyone
except themselves. -
8:36 - 8:39Like my friend who says
he's not ever going to give up his SUV -
8:39 - 8:41until they stop building
coal plants in China. -
8:41 - 8:45But we have an opportunity to change.
-
8:45 - 8:47No two of us are the same.
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8:47 - 8:52Every single one of us has the opportunity
to change our attitudes, -
8:52 - 8:54our own and those of people around us.
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8:54 - 8:58So today, I want to invite all of you
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8:58 - 9:02to join me in helping to spark
an open and honest conversation -
9:02 - 9:04with the people around you,
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9:04 - 9:07about the gray rhinos in our world,
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9:07 - 9:11and be brutally honest
about how well we're dealing with them. -
9:11 - 9:14I hear so many times in the States,
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9:14 - 9:17"Well, of course we should
deal with obvious problems, -
9:17 - 9:19but if you don't see
what's in front of you, -
9:19 - 9:21you're either dumb or ignorant."
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9:21 - 9:25That's what they say,
and I could not disagree more. -
9:25 - 9:27If you don't see what's in front of you,
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9:27 - 9:31you're not dumb, you're not ignorant,
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9:31 - 9:32you're human.
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9:32 - 9:38And once we all recognize
that shared vulnerability, -
9:38 - 9:42that gives us the power to open our eyes,
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9:42 - 9:44to see what's in front of us
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9:44 - 9:47and to act before we get trampled.
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9:49 - 9:52(Applause)
- Title:
- Why we ignore obvious problems -- and how to act on them
- Speaker:
- Michele Wucker
- Description:
-
Why do we often neglect big problems, like the financial crisis and climate change, until it's too late? Policy strategist Michele Wucker urges us to replace the myth of the "black swan" -- that rare, unforeseeable, unavoidable catastrophe -- with the reality of the "gray rhino," the preventable danger that we choose to ignore. She shows why predictable crises catch us by surprise -- and lays out some signs that there may be a charging rhino in your life right now.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 10:05
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for Why we ignore obvious problems -- and how to act on them | ||
Oliver Friedman edited English subtitles for Why we ignore obvious problems -- and how to act on them | ||
Oliver Friedman edited English subtitles for Why we ignore obvious problems -- and how to act on them | ||
Oliver Friedman approved English subtitles for Why we ignore obvious problems -- and how to act on them | ||
Oliver Friedman edited English subtitles for Why we ignore obvious problems -- and how to act on them | ||
Joanna Pietrulewicz accepted English subtitles for Why we ignore obvious problems -- and how to act on them | ||
Joanna Pietrulewicz edited English subtitles for Why we ignore obvious problems -- and how to act on them | ||
Joanna Pietrulewicz edited English subtitles for Why we ignore obvious problems -- and how to act on them |