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So what if there were
a highly obvious problem
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right in front of you?
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One that everyone was talking about,
-
one that affected you directly.
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Would you do everything
within your power to fix things
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before they got worse?
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Don't be so sure.
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We are all much more likely
than any of us would like to admit
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to miss what's right in front of our eyes.
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And in fact,
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we're sometimes most likely
to turn away from things
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precisely because of the threat
that they represent to us,
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in business, life and the world.
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So I want to give you an example
from my world, economic policy.
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So when Alan Greenspan
was head of the Federal Reserve,
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his entire job was to watch out
for problems in the US economy
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and to make sure that they
didn't spin out of control.
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So, after 2006,
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when real estate prices peaked,
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more and more and more
respected leaders and institutions
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started to sound the alarm bells
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about risky lending
and dangerous market bubbles.
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As you know, in 2008
it all came tumbling down.
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Banks collapsed,
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global stock markets
lost nearly half their value,
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millions and millions of people
lost their homes to foreclosure.
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And at the bottom,
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nearly one in 10 Americans
was out of work.
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So after things calmed down a little bit,
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Greenspan and many others
came out with a postmortem and said,
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"Nobody could have predicted that crisis."
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They called it "a black swan."
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Something that was unimaginable,
-
unforeseeable and completely improbable.
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A total surprise.
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Except it wasn't always such a surprise.
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For example, my Manhattan apartment
nearly doubled in value
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in less than four years.
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I saw the writing on the wall
and I sold it.
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(Laughter)
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(Applause)
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So, a lot of other people
also saw the warning,
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spoke out publicly
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and they were ignored.
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So we didn't know exactly
what the crisis was going to look like,
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not the exact parameters,
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but we could all tell
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that the thing coming at us
was as dangerous, visible and predictable
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as a giant gray rhino
charging right at us.
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The black swan lends itself
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to the idea that we don't have
power over our futures.
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And unfortunately, the less control
that we think we have,
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the more likely we are to downplay it
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or ignore it entirely.
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And this dangerous dynamic
masks another problem:
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that most of the problems
that we're facing
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are so probable and obvious,
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they're things that we can see,
but we still don't do anything about.
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So I created the gray rhino metaphor
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to meet what I felt was an urgent need.
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To help us to take a fresh look,
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with the same passion
that people had for the black swan,
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but this time, for the things
that were highly obvious,
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highly probable, but still neglected.
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Those are the gray rhinos.
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Once you start looking for gray rhinos,
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you see them in the headlines every day.
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And so what I see in the headlines
is another big gray rhino,
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a new highly probable financial crisis.
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And I wonder if we've learned anything
in the last 10 years.
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So if you listen
to Washington or Wall Street,
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you could almost be forgiven for thinking
that only smooth sailing laid ahead.
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But in China, where I spend a lot of time,
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the conversation is totally different.
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The entire economic team,
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all the way up to president
Xi Jinping himself,
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talk very specifically and clearly
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about financial risks as gray rhinos,
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and how they can tame them.
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Now, to be sure, China and the US
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have very, very different
systems of government,
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which affects what
they're able to do or not.
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And many of the root causes
for their economic problems
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are totally different.
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But it's no secret
that both countries have problems
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with debt, with inequality
and with economic productivity.
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So how come the conversations
are so different?
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You could actually ask this question,
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not just about countries,
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but about just about everyone.
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The auto companies that put safety first
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and the ones that don't bother
to recall their shoddy cars
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until after people die.
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The grandparents, who,
in preparing for the inevitable --
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the ones who have the eulogy written,
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the menu for the funeral lunch.
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(Laughter)
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My grandparents did.
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(Laughter)
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And everything but the final date
chiseled into the gravestone.
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But then you have the grandparents
on the other side,
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who don't put
their final affairs in order,
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who don't get rid of all the junk
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they've been hoarding
for decades and decades
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and leave their kids to deal with it.
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So what makes the difference
between one side and the other?
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Why do some people
see things and deal with them,
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and the other ones just look away?
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So the first one has to do
with culture, society,
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the people around you.
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If you think that someone around you
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is going to help
pick you up when you fall,
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you're much more likely
to see a danger as being smaller.
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And that allows us to take
good chances, not just the bad ones.
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For example, like risking criticism
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when you talk about the danger
that nobody wants you to talk about.
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Or taking the opportunities
that are kind of scary,
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so in their own way are gray rhinos.
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So the US has a very
individualist culture -- go it alone.
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And paradoxically,
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this makes many Americans
much less open to change
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and taking good risks.
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In China, by contrast,
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people believe that the government
is going to keep problems from happening,
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which might not always be what happens,
but people believe it.
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They believe they can rely
on their families,
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so that makes them more likely
to take certain risks.
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Like buying Beijing real estate,
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or like being more open about the fact
that they need to change direction,
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and in fact, the pace of change in China
is absolutely amazing.
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Second of all,
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how much do you know about a situation,
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how much are you willing to learn?
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And are you willing to see things
even when it's not what you want?
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So many of us are so unlikely
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to pay attention to the things
that we just want to black out,
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we don't like them.
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We pay attention to what we want to see,
what we like, what we agree with.
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But we have the opportunity
and the ability
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to correct those blind spots.
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I spend a lot of time
talking with people of all walks of life
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about the gray rhinos in their life
and their attitudes.
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And you might think
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that the people
who are more afraid of risk,
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who are more sensitive to them,
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would be the ones
who would be less open to change.
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But the opposite is actually true.
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I've found that the people
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who are wiling to recognize
the problems around them
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and make plans
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are the ones who are able
to tolerate more risk, good risk,
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and deal with the bad risk.
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And it's because as we seek information,
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we increase our power to do something
about the things that we're afraid of.
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And that brings me to my third point.
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How much control do you feel that you have
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over the gray rhinos in your life?
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One of the reasons we don't act
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is that we often feel too helpless.
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Think of climate change,
it can feel so big,
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that not a single one of us
could make a difference.
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So some people go about life denying it.
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Other people blame everyone
except themselves.
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Like my friend who says
he's not ever going to give up his SUV
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until they stop building
coal plants in China.
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But we have an opportunity to change.
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No two of us are the same.
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Every single one of us has the opportunity
to change our attitudes,
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our own and those of people around us.
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So today, I want to invite all of you
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to join me in helping to spark
an open and honest conversation
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with the people around you,
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about the gray rhinos in our world,
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and be brutally honest
about how well we're dealing with them.
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I hear so many times in the States,
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"Well, of course we should
deal with obvious problems,
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but if you don't see
what's in front of you,
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you're either dumb or ignorant."
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That's what they say,
and I could not disagree more.
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If you don't see what's in front of you,
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you're not dumb, you're not ignorant,
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you're human.
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And once we all recognize
that shared vulnerability,
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that gives us the power to open our eyes,
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to see what's in front of us
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and to act before we get trampled.
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(Applause)