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Why specializing early doesn't always mean career success

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    So, I'd like to talk about
    the development of human potential,
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    and I'd like to start with maybe the most
    impactful modern story of development.
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    Many of you here have probably heard
    of the 10,000 hours rule.
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    Maybe you even model
    your own life after it.
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    Basically, it's the idea
    that to become great in anything,
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    it takes 10,000 hours
    of focused practice,
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    so you'd better get started
    as early as possible.
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    The poster child for this story
    is Tiger Woods.
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    His father famously gave him a putter
    when he was seven months old.
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    At 10 months, he started imitating
    his father's swing.
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    At two, you can go on YouTube
    and see him on national television.
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    Fast-forward to the age of 21,
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    he's the greatest golfer in the world.
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    Quintessential 10,000 hours story.
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    Another that features
    in a number of bestselling books
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    is that of the three Polgar sisters,
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    whose father decided to teach them chess
    in a very technical manner
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    from a very early age.
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    And, really, he wanted to show
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    that with a head start
    in focused practice,
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    any child could become
    a genius in anything.
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    And in fact,
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    two of his daughters went on to become
    Grandmaster chess players.
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    So when I became the science writer
    at "Sports Illustrated" magazine,
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    I got curious.
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    If this 10,000 hours rule is correct,
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    then we should see
    that elite athletes get a head start
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    in so-called "deliberate practice."
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    This is coached,
    error-correction-focused practice,
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    not just playing around.
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    And in fact, when scientists
    study elite athletes,
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    they see that they spend more time
    in deliberate practice --
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    not a big surprise.
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    When they actually track athletes
    over the course of their development,
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    the pattern looks like this:
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    the future elites actually spend
    less time early on
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    in deliberate practice
    in their eventual sport.
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    They tend to have what scientists
    call a "sampling period,"
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    where they try a variety
    of physical activities,
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    they gain broad, general skills,
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    they learn about
    their interests and abilities
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    and delay specializing until later
    than peers who plateau at lower levels.
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    And so when I saw that, I said,
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    "Gosh, that doesn't really comport
    with the 10,000 hours rule, does it?"
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    So I started to wonder about other domains
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    that we associate with obligatory,
    early specialization,
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    like music.
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    Turns out the pattern's often similar.
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    This is research
    from a world-class music academy,
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    and what I want to draw
    your attention to is this:
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    the exceptional musicians didn't start
    spending more time in deliberate practice
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    than the average musicians
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    until their third instrument.
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    They, too, tended to have
    a sampling period,
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    even musicians we think of
    as famously precocious,
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    like Yo-Yo Ma.
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    He had a sampling period,
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    he just went through it more rapidly
    than most musicians do.
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    Nonetheless, this research
    is almost entirely ignored,
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    and much more impactful
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    is the first page of the book
    "Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother,"
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    where the author recounts
    assigning her daughter violin.
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    Nobody seems to remember
    the part later in the book
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    where her daughter turns to her
    and says, "You picked it, not me,"
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    and largely quits.
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    So having seen this sort of surprising
    pattern in sports and music,
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    I started to wonder about domains
    that affect even more people,
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    like education.
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    An economist found a natural experiment
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    in the higher-ed systems
    of England and Scotland.
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    In the period he studied,
    the systems were very similar,
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    except in England, students had
    to specialize in their mid-teen years
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    to pick a specific course
    of study to apply to,
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    whereas in Scotland, they could
    keep trying things in the university
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    if they wanted to.
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    And his question was:
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    Who wins the trade-off,
    the early or the late specializers?
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    And what he saw was that the early
    specializers jump out to an income lead
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    because they have more
    domain-specific skills.
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    The late specializers get to try
    more different things,
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    and when they do pick,
    they have better fit,
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    or what economists call "match quality."
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    And so their growth rates are faster.
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    By six years out,
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    they erase that income gap.
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    Meanwhile, the early specializers
    start quitting their career tracks
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    in much higher numbers,
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    essentially because they were
    made to choose so early
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    that they more often made poor choices.
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    So the late specializers
    lose in the short term
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    and win in the long run.
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    I think if we thought about
    career choice like dating,
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    we might not pressure people
    to settle down quite so quickly.
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    So this got me interested,
    seeing this pattern again,
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    in exploring the developmental backgrounds
    of people whose work I had long admired,
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    like Duke Ellington, who shunned
    music lessons as a kid
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    to focus on baseball
    and painting and drawing.
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    Or Maryam Mirzakhani, who wasn't
    interested in math as a girl --
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    dreamed of becoming a novelist --
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    and went on to become
    the first and so far only woman
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    to win the Fields Medal,
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    the most prestigious prize
    in the world in math.
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    Or Vincent Van Gogh
    had five different careers,
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    each of which he deemed his true calling
    before flaming out spectacularly,
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    and in his late 20s, picked up a book
    called "The Guide to the ABCs of Drawing."
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    That worked out OK.
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    Claude Shannon was an electrical engineer
    at the University of Michigan
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    who took a philosophy course
    just to fulfill a requirement,
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    and in it, he learned about
    a near-century-old system of logic
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    by which true and false statements
    could be coded as ones and zeros
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    and solved like math problems.
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    This led to the development
    of binary code,
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    which underlies all
    of our digital computers today.
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    Finally, my own sort of role model,
    Frances Hesselbein --
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    this is me with her --
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    she took her first professional
    job at the age of 54
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    and went on to become
    the CEO of the Girl Scouts,
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    which she saved.
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    She tripled minority membership,
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    added 130,000 volunteers,
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    and this is one of the proficiency badges
    that came out of her tenure --
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    it's binary code for girls
    learning about computers.
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    Today, Frances runs a leadership institute
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    where she works
    every weekday, in Manhattan.
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    And she's only 104,
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    so who knows what's next.
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    (Laughter)
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    We never really hear developmental
    stories like this, do we?
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    We don't hear about the research
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    that found that Nobel laureate scientists
    are 22 times more likely
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    to have a hobby outside of work
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    as are typical scientists.
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    We never hear that.
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    Even when the performers
    or the work is very famous,
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    we don't hear these
    developmental stories.
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    For example, here's
    an athlete I've followed.
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    Here he is at age six,
    wearing a Scottish rugby kit.
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    He tried some tennis,
    some skiing, wrestling.
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    His mother was actually a tennis coach
    but she declined to coach him
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    because he wouldn't return balls normally.
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    He did some basketball,
    table tennis, swimming.
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    When his coaches wanted
    to move him up a level
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    to play with older boys,
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    he declined, because he just wanted
    to talk about pro wrestling
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    after practice with his friends.
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    And he kept trying more sports:
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    handball, volleyball, soccer,
    badminton, skateboarding ...
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    So, who is this dabbler?
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    This is Roger Federer.
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    Every bit as famous
    as an adult as Tiger Woods,
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    and yet even tennis enthusiasts
    don't usually know anything
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    about his developmental story.
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    Why is that, even though it's the norm?
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    I think it's partly because
    the Tiger story is very dramatic,
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    but also because it seems like
    this tidy narrative
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    that we can extrapolate to anything
    that we want to be good at
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    in our own lives.
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    But that, I think, is a problem,
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    because it turns out that in many ways,
    golf is a uniquely horrible model
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    of almost everything
    that humans want to learn.
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    (Laughter)
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    Golf is the epitome of
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    what the psychologist Robin Hogarth
    called a "kind learning environment."
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    Kind learning environments
    have next steps and goals that are clear,
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    rules that are clear and never change,
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    when you do something, you get feedback
    that is quick and accurate,
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    work next year will look like
    work last year.
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    Chess: also a kind learning environment.
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    The grand master's advantage
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    is largely based on
    knowledge of recurring patterns,
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    which is also why
    it's so easy to automate.
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    On the other end of the spectrum
    are "wicked learning environments,"
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    where next steps and goals
    may not be clear.
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    Rules may change.
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    You may or may not get feedback
    when you do something.
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    It may be delayed, it may be inaccurate,
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    and work next year
    may not look like work last year.
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    So which one of these sounds like
    the world we're increasingly living in?
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    In fact, our need to think
    in an adaptable manner
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    and to keep track of interconnecting parts
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    has fundamentally changed our perception,
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    so that when you look at this diagram,
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    the central circle on the right
    probably looks larger to you
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    because your brain is drawn to
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    the relationship
    of the parts in the whole,
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    whereas someone who hasn't been
    exposed to modern work
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    with its requirement for adaptable,
    conceptual thought,
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    will see correctly that
    the central circles are the same size.
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    So here we are in the wicked work world,
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    and there, sometimes
    hyperspecialization can backfire badly.
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    For example, in research
    in a dozen countries
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    that matched people
    for their parents' years of education,
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    their test scores,
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    their own years of education,
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    the difference was
    some got career-focused education
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    and some got broader, general education.
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    The pattern was those who got
    the career-focused education
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    are more likely to be hired
    right out of training,
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    more likely to make more money right away,
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    but so much less adaptable
    in a changing work world
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    that they spend so much less time
    in the workforce overall
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    that they win in the short term
    and lose in the long run.
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    Or consider a famous,
    20-year study of experts
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    making geopolitical
    and economic predictions.
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    The worst forecasters
    were the most specialized experts,
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    those who'd spent their entire careers
    studying one or two problems
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    and came to see the whole world
    through one lens or mental model.
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    Some of them actually got worse
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    as they accumulated
    experience and credentials.
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    The best forecasters were simply
    bright people with wide-ranging interests.
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    Now in some domains, like medicine,
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    increasing specialization has been
    both inevitable and beneficial,
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    no question about it.
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    And yet, it's been a double-edged sword.
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    A few years ago, one of the most popular
    surgeries in the world for knee pain
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    was tested in a placebo-controlled trial.
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    Some of the patients got "sham surgery."
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    That means the surgeons make an incision,
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    they bang around like
    they're doing something,
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    then they sew the patient back up.
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    That performed just as a well.
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    And yet surgeons who specialize
    in the procedure continue to do it
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    by the millions.
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    So if hyperspecialization isn't always
    the trick in a wicked world, what is?
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    That can be difficult to talk about,
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    because it doesn't always
    look like this path.
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    Sometimes it looks like
    meandering or zigzagging
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    or keeping a broader view.
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    It can look like getting behind.
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    But I want to talk about what
    some of those tricks might be.
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    If we look at research on technological
    innovation, it shows that increasingly,
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    the most impactful patents
    are not authored by individuals
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    who drill deeper, deeper, deeper
    into one area of technology
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    as classified by the US Patent Office,
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    but rather by teams
    that include individuals
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    who have worked across a large number
    of different technology classes
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    and often merge things
    from different domains.
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    Someone whose work I've admired
    who was sort of on the forefront of this
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    is a Japanese man named Gunpei Yokoi.
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    Yokoi didn't score well
    on his electronics exams at school,
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    so he had to settle for a low-tier job
    as a machine maintenance worker
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    at a playing card company in Kyoto.
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    He realized he wasn't equipped
    to work on the cutting edge,
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    but that there was so much
    information easily available
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    that maybe he could combine things
    that were already well-known
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    in ways that specialists
    were too narrow to see.
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    So he combined some well-known technology
    from the calculator industry
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    with some well-known technology
    from the credit card industry
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    and made handheld games.
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    And they were a hit.
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    And it turned this playing card company,
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    which was founded in a wooden
    storefront in the 19th century,
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    into a toy and game operation.
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    You may have heard of it;
    it's called Nintendo.
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    Yokoi's creative philosophy
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    translated to "lateral thinking
    with withered technology,"
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    taking well-known technology
    and using it in new ways.
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    And his magnum opus was this:
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    the Game Boy.
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    Technological joke in every way.
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    And it came out at the same time
    as color competitors from Saga and Atari,
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    and it blew them away,
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    because Yokoi knew
    what his customers cared about
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    wasn't color.
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    It was durability, portability,
    affordability, battery life,
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    game selection.
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    This is mine that I found
    in my parents' basement.
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    (Laughter)
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    It's seen better days.
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    But you can see the red light is on.
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    I flipped it on and played some Tetris,
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    which I thought was especially impressive
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    because the batteries had expired
    in 2007 and 2013.
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    (Laughter)
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    So this breadth advantage holds
    in more subjective realms as well.
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    In a fascinating study of what leads
    some comic book creators
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    to be more likely to make
    blockbuster comics,
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    a pair of researchers found
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    that it was neither the number of years
    of experience in the field
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    nor the resources of the publisher
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    nor the number of previous comics made.
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    It was the number of different genres
    that a creator had worked across.
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    And interestingly,
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    a broad individual
    could not be entirely replaced
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    by a team of specialists.
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    We probably don't make as many
    of those people as we could
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    because early on,
    they just look like they're behind
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    and we don't tend to incentivize anything
    that doesn't look like a head start
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    or specialization.
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    In fact, I think in the well-meaning
    drive for a head start,
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    we often even counterproductively
    short-circuit even the way
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    we learn new material,
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    at a fundamental level.
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    In a study last year,
    seventh-grade math classrooms in the US
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    were randomly assigned
    to different types of learning.
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    Some got what's called "blocked practice."
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    That's like, you get problem type A,
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    AAAAA, BBBBB, and so on.
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    Progress is fast,
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    kids are happy,
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    everything's great.
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    Other classrooms got assigned
    to what's called "interleaved practice."
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    That's like if you took all the problem
    types and threw them in a hat
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    and drew them out at random.
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    Progress is slower,
    kids are more frustrated.
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    But instead of learning
    how to execute procedures,
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    they're learning how to match
    a strategy to a type of problem.
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    And when the test comes around,
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    the interleaved group blew
    the block practice group away.
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    It wasn't even close.
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    Now, I found a lot of this research
    deeply counterintuitive,
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    the idea that a head start,
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    whether in picking a career
    or a course of study
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    or just in learning new material,
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    can sometimes undermine
    long-term development.
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    And naturally, I think there are
    as many ways to succeed
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    as there are people.
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    But I think we tend only to incentivize
    and encourage the Tiger path,
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    when increasingly, in a wicked world,
  • 13:04 - 13:07
    we need people who travel
    the Roger path as well.
  • 13:07 - 13:09
    Or as the eminent physicist
    and mathematician
  • 13:09 - 13:13
    and wonderful writer,
    Freeman Dyson, put it --
  • 13:13 - 13:16
    and Dyson passed away yesterday,
  • 13:16 - 13:18
    so I hope I'm doing
    his words honor here --
  • 13:18 - 13:23
    as he said: for a healthy ecosystem,
    we need both birds and frogs.
  • 13:23 - 13:24
    Frogs are down in the mud,
  • 13:24 - 13:26
    seeing all the granular details.
  • 13:26 - 13:29
    The birds are soaring up above
    not seeing those details
  • 13:29 - 13:31
    but integrating
    the knowledge of the frogs.
  • 13:31 - 13:32
    And we need both.
  • 13:33 - 13:34
    The problem, Dyson said,
  • 13:34 - 13:37
    is that we're telling everyone
    to become frogs.
  • 13:37 - 13:38
    And I think,
  • 13:38 - 13:40
    in a wicked world,
  • 13:40 - 13:42
    that's increasingly shortsighted.
  • 13:42 - 13:43
    Thank you very much.
  • 13:43 - 13:46
    (Applause)
Title:
Why specializing early doesn't always mean career success
Speaker:
David Epstein
Description:

A head start doesn't always ... well, help you get ahead. With examples from sports, technology and economics, journalist David Epstein shares how specializing in a particular skill too early in life could undermine your long-term development -- and explains the benefits of a "sampling period" where you try new things and focus on building a range of skills. Learn how this broader, counterintuitive mindset (and more forgiving timeline) could lead to a more fulfilling life, personally and professionally.

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Video Language:
English
Team:
TED
Project:
TEDTalks
Duration:
14:00

English subtitles

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