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← 18-10 Last Round

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Showing Revision 1 created 10/03/2012 by Amara Bot.

  1. So you've been watching the game for awhile and then suddenly the person who is playing that game
  2. announces, "Last round!"
  3. So this is the last chance for you to play the game.
  4. And the odds already looked pretty good and also the last 40 times that you checked
  5. actually nobody lost.
  6. What would be the factors you would have to take into account to determine
  7. if and how much to bet in this last round?
  8. Now of course this is a rather subjective quiz, but I think we should agree more or less.
  9. So I will give you four opinions that you could have,
  10. and I also think that more than one of them are valid.
  11. So the first opinion could be certainly because the odds are fantastic.
  12. You get 30% back if you throw a 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5. So that will give you 30% profit.
  13. And in the last 40 throws, no 6 was thrown and the probability for that is smaller than 0.1%.
  14. Or maybe your opinion is, well, you can play a little.
  15. You know your chances of winning 30%. That's fine.
  16. But you should be ready to lose what you're betting here.
  17. The third option could be that it kind of depends on your risk affinity.
  18. So if you're ready to play a riskier game, you might want to bet a little bit more
  19. or stay out of the game altogether.
  20. And finally, one opinion could be well better not because it does seem a little bit suspicious.