The human skills we need in an unpredictable world
-
0:01 - 0:04Recently, the leadership team
of an American supermarket chain -
0:04 - 0:08decided that their business
needed to get a lot more efficient. -
0:08 - 0:12So they embraced their digital
transformation with zeal. -
0:12 - 0:16Out went the teams
supervising meat, veg, bakery, -
0:16 - 0:20and in came an algorithmic task allocator.
-
0:21 - 0:23Now, instead of people working together,
-
0:23 - 0:27each employee went, clocked in,
got assigned a task, did it, -
0:27 - 0:29came back for more.
-
0:29 - 0:33This was scientific
management on steroids, -
0:33 - 0:35standardizing and allocating work.
-
0:36 - 0:38It was super efficient.
-
0:39 - 0:40Well, not quite,
-
0:41 - 0:44because the task allocator didn't know
-
0:44 - 0:47when a customer was going
to drop a box of eggs, -
0:47 - 0:50couldn't predict when some crazy kid
was going to knock over a display, -
0:51 - 0:52or when the local high school decided
-
0:52 - 0:55that everybody needed
to bring in coconuts the next day. -
0:55 - 0:56(Laughter)
-
0:56 - 0:58Efficiency works really well
-
0:58 - 1:01when you can predict
exactly what you're going to need. -
1:02 - 1:05But when the anomalous
or unexpected comes along -- -
1:05 - 1:07kids, customers, coconuts --
-
1:07 - 1:10well, then efficiency
is no longer your friend. -
1:12 - 1:14This has become a really crucial issue,
-
1:14 - 1:17this ability to deal with the unexpected,
-
1:18 - 1:21because the unexpected
is becoming the norm. -
1:22 - 1:26It's why experts and forecasters
are reluctant to predict anything -
1:26 - 1:28more than 400 days out.
-
1:29 - 1:30Why?
-
1:31 - 1:32Because over the last 20 or 30 years,
-
1:32 - 1:36much of the world has gone
from being complicated -
1:36 - 1:38to being complex --
-
1:38 - 1:41which means that yes, there are patterns,
-
1:41 - 1:43but they don't repeat
themselves regularly. -
1:43 - 1:48It means that very small changes
can make a disproportionate impact. -
1:48 - 1:51And it means that expertise
won't always suffice, -
1:51 - 1:55because the system
just keeps changing too fast. -
1:56 - 1:59So what that means
-
1:59 - 2:02is that there's a huge amount in the world
-
2:02 - 2:05that kind of defies forecasting now.
-
2:05 - 2:09It's why the Bank of England will say
yes, there will be another crash, -
2:09 - 2:11but we don't know why or when.
-
2:12 - 2:14We know that climate change is real,
-
2:14 - 2:18but we can't predict
where forest fires will break out, -
2:18 - 2:21and we don't know which factories
are going to flood. -
2:21 - 2:24It's why companies are blindsided
-
2:24 - 2:29when plastic straws
and bags and bottled water -
2:29 - 2:32go from staples to rejects overnight,
-
2:33 - 2:37and baffled when a change in social mores
-
2:37 - 2:42turns stars into pariahs
and colleagues into outcasts: -
2:43 - 2:46ineradicable uncertainty.
-
2:47 - 2:52In an environment that defies
so much forecasting, -
2:52 - 2:55efficiency won't just not help us,
-
2:55 - 3:02it specifically undermines and erodes
our capacity to adapt and respond. -
3:04 - 3:07So if efficiency is no longer
our guiding principle, -
3:07 - 3:09how should we address the future?
-
3:09 - 3:11What kind of thinking
is really going to help us? -
3:11 - 3:17What sort of talents
must we be sure to defend? -
3:18 - 3:22I think that, where in the past we used to
think a lot about just in time management, -
3:23 - 3:26now we have to start thinking
about just in case, -
3:26 - 3:30preparing for events
that are generally certain -
3:30 - 3:32but specifically remain ambiguous.
-
3:33 - 3:38One example of this is the Coalition
for Epidemic Preparedness, CEPI. -
3:38 - 3:42We know there will be
more epidemics in future, -
3:42 - 3:46but we don't know where or when or what.
-
3:46 - 3:48So we can't plan.
-
3:49 - 3:51But we can prepare.
-
3:51 - 3:57So CEPI's developing multiple vaccines
for multiple diseases, -
3:58 - 4:01knowing that they can't predict
which vaccines are going to work -
4:01 - 4:03or which diseases will break out.
-
4:03 - 4:06So some of those vaccines
will never be used. -
4:06 - 4:08That's inefficient.
-
4:09 - 4:11But it's robust,
-
4:11 - 4:13because it provides more options,
-
4:13 - 4:18and it means that we don't depend
on a single technological solution. -
4:19 - 4:22Epidemic responsiveness
also depends hugely -
4:22 - 4:25on people who know and trust each other.
-
4:25 - 4:28But those relationships
take time to develop, -
4:28 - 4:32time that is always in short supply
when an epidemic breaks out. -
4:32 - 4:37So CEPI is developing relationships,
friendships, alliances now -
4:38 - 4:41knowing that some of those
may never be used. -
4:42 - 4:45That's inefficient,
a waste of time, perhaps, -
4:45 - 4:46but it's robust.
-
4:47 - 4:51You can see robust thinking
in financial services, too. -
4:51 - 4:55In the past, banks used to hold
much less capital -
4:55 - 4:57than they're required to today,
-
4:57 - 5:01because holding so little capital,
being too efficient with it, -
5:01 - 5:04is what made the banks
so fragile in the first place. -
5:05 - 5:10Now, holding more capital
looks and is inefficient. -
5:10 - 5:16But it's robust, because it protects
the financial system against surprises. -
5:17 - 5:20Countries that are really serious
about climate change -
5:20 - 5:24know that they have to adopt
multiple solutions, -
5:24 - 5:27multiple forms of renewable energy,
-
5:27 - 5:28not just one.
-
5:28 - 5:33The countries that are most advanced
have been working for years now, -
5:33 - 5:37changing their water and food supply
and healthcare systems, -
5:37 - 5:41because they recognize that by the time
they have certain prediction, -
5:41 - 5:45that information may very well
come too late. -
5:45 - 5:50You can take the same approach
to trade wars, and many countries do. -
5:50 - 5:54Instead of depending on a single
huge trading partner, -
5:54 - 5:56they try to be everybody's friends,
-
5:56 - 5:58because they know they can't predict
-
5:58 - 6:02which markets might
suddenly become unstable. -
6:02 - 6:06It's time-consuming and expensive,
negotiating all these deals, -
6:06 - 6:07but it's robust
-
6:07 - 6:13because it makes their whole economy
better defended against shocks. -
6:13 - 6:17It's particularly a strategy
adopted by small countries -
6:17 - 6:21that know they'll never have
the market muscle to call the shots, -
6:21 - 6:24so it's just better to have
too many friends. -
6:26 - 6:28But if you're stuck
in one of these organizations -
6:28 - 6:33that's still kind of captured
by the efficiency myth, -
6:33 - 6:35how do you start to change it?
-
6:36 - 6:38Try some experiments.
-
6:38 - 6:40In the Netherlands,
-
6:40 - 6:45home care nursing used to be run
pretty much like the supermarket: -
6:45 - 6:47standardized and prescribed work
-
6:47 - 6:49to the minute:
-
6:49 - 6:53nine minutes on Monday,
seven minutes on Wednesday, -
6:53 - 6:55eight minutes on Friday.
-
6:55 - 6:57The nurses hated it.
-
6:57 - 6:59So one of them, Jos de Blok,
-
6:59 - 7:01proposed an experiment.
-
7:02 - 7:03Since every patient is different,
-
7:03 - 7:06and we don't quite know
exactly what they'll need, -
7:06 - 7:08why don't we just leave it
to the nurses to decide? -
7:09 - 7:11Sound reckless?
-
7:11 - 7:12(Laughter)
-
7:12 - 7:14(Applause)
-
7:14 - 7:18In his experiment, Jos found
the patients got better -
7:18 - 7:21in half the time,
-
7:21 - 7:25and costs fell by 30 percent.
-
7:26 - 7:30When I asked Jos what had surprised him
about his experiment, -
7:30 - 7:32he just kind of laughed and he said,
-
7:32 - 7:35"Well, I had no idea it could be so easy
-
7:35 - 7:38to find such a huge improvement,
-
7:38 - 7:41because this isn't the kind of thing
you can know or predict -
7:41 - 7:44sitting at a desk
or staring at a computer screen." -
7:45 - 7:49So now this form of nursing
has proliferated across the Netherlands -
7:49 - 7:50and around the world.
-
7:50 - 7:54But in every new country
it still starts with experiments, -
7:54 - 7:58because each place is slightly
and unpredictably different. -
7:59 - 8:03Of course, not all experiments work.
-
8:03 - 8:06Jos tried a similar approach
to the fire service -
8:06 - 8:10and found it didn't work because
the service is just too centralized. -
8:10 - 8:12Failed experiments look inefficient,
-
8:12 - 8:16but they're often the only way
you can figure out -
8:16 - 8:18how the real world works.
-
8:18 - 8:21So now he's trying teachers.
-
8:23 - 8:26Experiments like that require creativity
-
8:27 - 8:29and not a little bravery.
-
8:30 - 8:31In England --
-
8:32 - 8:35I was about to say in the UK,
but in England -- -
8:35 - 8:37(Laughter)
-
8:37 - 8:41(Applause)
-
8:41 - 8:45In England, the leading rugby team,
or one of the leading rugby teams, -
8:45 - 8:47is Saracens.
-
8:47 - 8:52The manager and the coach there realized
that all the physical training they do -
8:52 - 8:55and the data-driven
conditioning that they do -
8:55 - 8:56has become generic;
-
8:56 - 8:59really, all the teams
do exactly the same thing. -
9:00 - 9:02So they risked an experiment.
-
9:02 - 9:06They took the whole team away,
even in match season, -
9:06 - 9:08on ski trips
-
9:08 - 9:11and to look at social projects in Chicago.
-
9:11 - 9:13This was expensive,
-
9:13 - 9:15it was time-consuming,
-
9:15 - 9:16and it could be a little risky
-
9:16 - 9:20putting a whole bunch of rugby players
on a ski slope, right? -
9:20 - 9:21(Laughter)
-
9:21 - 9:25But what they found was that
the players came back -
9:25 - 9:30with renewed bonds
of loyalty and solidarity. -
9:30 - 9:33And now when they're on the pitch
under incredible pressure, -
9:33 - 9:38they manifest what the manager
calls "poise" -- -
9:39 - 9:43an unflinching, unwavering dedication
-
9:43 - 9:44to each other.
-
9:45 - 9:49Their opponents are in awe of this,
-
9:49 - 9:53but still too in thrall
to efficiency to try it. -
9:54 - 9:56At a London tech company, Verve,
-
9:56 - 9:59the CEO measures just about
everything that moves, -
9:59 - 10:02but she couldn't find anything
that made any difference -
10:02 - 10:04to the company's productivity.
-
10:04 - 10:08So she devised an experiment
that she calls "Love Week": -
10:08 - 10:13a whole week where each employee
has to look for really clever, -
10:13 - 10:15helpful, imaginative things
-
10:15 - 10:17that a counterpart does,
-
10:17 - 10:19call it out and celebrate it.
-
10:19 - 10:21It takes a huge amount of time and effort;
-
10:22 - 10:25lots of people would call it distracting.
-
10:25 - 10:27But it really energizes the business
-
10:27 - 10:30and makes the whole company
more productive. -
10:32 - 10:35Preparedness, coalition-building,
-
10:35 - 10:39imagination, experiments,
-
10:39 - 10:40bravery --
-
10:41 - 10:43in an unpredictable age,
-
10:43 - 10:48these are tremendous sources
of resilience and strength. -
10:49 - 10:51They aren't efficient,
-
10:52 - 10:55but they give us limitless capacity
-
10:55 - 10:59for adaptation, variation and invention.
-
11:00 - 11:03And the less we know about the future,
-
11:03 - 11:08the more we're going to need
these tremendous sources -
11:08 - 11:14of human, messy, unpredictable skills.
-
11:15 - 11:19But in our growing
dependence on technology, -
11:20 - 11:24we're asset-stripping those skills.
-
11:25 - 11:28Every time we use technology
-
11:28 - 11:32to nudge us through a decision or a choice
-
11:32 - 11:35or to interpret how somebody's feeling
-
11:35 - 11:37or to guide us through a conversation,
-
11:37 - 11:42we outsource to a machine
what we could, can do ourselves, -
11:42 - 11:45and it's an expensive trade-off.
-
11:46 - 11:49The more we let machines think for us,
-
11:50 - 11:53the less we can think for ourselves.
-
11:54 - 11:55The more --
-
11:55 - 11:59(Applause)
-
11:59 - 12:04The more time doctors spend
staring at digital medical records, -
12:04 - 12:08the less time they spend
looking at their patients. -
12:08 - 12:11The more we use parenting apps,
-
12:11 - 12:13the less we know our kids.
-
12:14 - 12:19The more time we spend with people that
we're predicted and programmed to like, -
12:19 - 12:23the less we can connect with people
who are different from ourselves. -
12:23 - 12:28And the less compassion we need,
the less compassion we have. -
12:30 - 12:33What all of these
technologies attempt to do -
12:33 - 12:40is to force-fit a standardized model
of a predictable reality -
12:40 - 12:44onto a world that is
infinitely surprising. -
12:45 - 12:46What gets left out?
-
12:47 - 12:50Anything that can't be measured --
-
12:50 - 12:53which is just about
everything that counts. -
12:54 - 13:01(Applause)
-
13:03 - 13:07Our growing dependence on technology
-
13:07 - 13:11risks us becoming less skilled,
-
13:11 - 13:12more vulnerable
-
13:12 - 13:15to the deep and growing complexity
-
13:15 - 13:17of the real world.
-
13:18 - 13:23Now, as I was thinking about
the extremes of stress and turbulence -
13:23 - 13:26that we know we will have to confront,
-
13:27 - 13:30I went and I talked to
a number of chief executives -
13:30 - 13:35whose own businesses had gone
through existential crises, -
13:35 - 13:37when they teetered
on the brink of collapse. -
13:39 - 13:43These were frank,
gut-wrenching conversations. -
13:44 - 13:48Many men wept just remembering.
-
13:48 - 13:50So I asked them:
-
13:51 - 13:53"What kept you going through this?"
-
13:53 - 13:56And they all had exactly the same answer.
-
13:56 - 13:59"It wasn't data or technology," they said.
-
14:00 - 14:03"It was my friends and my colleagues
-
14:03 - 14:05who kept me going."
-
14:05 - 14:10One added, "It was pretty much
the opposite of the gig economy." -
14:12 - 14:16But then I went and I talked to a group
of young, rising executives, -
14:16 - 14:18and I asked them,
-
14:18 - 14:19"Who are your friends at work?"
-
14:19 - 14:21And they just looked blank.
-
14:22 - 14:24"There's no time."
-
14:24 - 14:25"They're too busy."
-
14:25 - 14:27"It's not efficient."
-
14:28 - 14:31Who, I wondered, is going to give them
-
14:32 - 14:36imagination and stamina and bravery
-
14:36 - 14:38when the storms come?
-
14:40 - 14:43Anyone who tries to tell you
that they know the future -
14:43 - 14:46is just trying to own it,
-
14:46 - 14:49a spurious kind of manifest destiny.
-
14:50 - 14:52The harder, deeper truth is
-
14:53 - 14:56that the future is uncharted,
-
14:56 - 14:58that we can't map it till we get there.
-
14:59 - 15:01But that's OK,
-
15:01 - 15:04because we have so much imagination --
-
15:04 - 15:05if we use it.
-
15:05 - 15:11We have deep talents
of inventiveness and exploration -- -
15:11 - 15:13if we apply them.
-
15:13 - 15:18We are brave enough to invent things
we've never seen before. -
15:19 - 15:21Lose those skills,
-
15:22 - 15:24and we are adrift.
-
15:24 - 15:27But hone and develop them,
-
15:28 - 15:31we can make any future we choose.
-
15:32 - 15:34Thank you.
-
15:34 - 15:40(Applause)
- Title:
- The human skills we need in an unpredictable world
- Speaker:
- Margaret Heffernan
- Description:
-
The more we rely on technology to make us efficient, the fewer skills we have to confront the unexpected, says writer and entrepreneur Margaret Heffernan. She shares why we need less tech and more messy human skills -- imagination, humility, bravery -- to solve problems in business, government and life in an unpredictable age. "We are brave enough to invent things we've never seen before," she says. "We can make any future we choose."
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 15:52
Oliver Friedman edited English subtitles for The human skills we need in an unpredictable world | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for The human skills we need in an unpredictable world | ||
Brian Greene approved English subtitles for The human skills we need in an unpredictable world | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for The human skills we need in an unpredictable world | ||
Camille Martínez accepted English subtitles for The human skills we need in an unpredictable world | ||
Camille Martínez edited English subtitles for The human skills we need in an unpredictable world | ||
Camille Martínez edited English subtitles for The human skills we need in an unpredictable world | ||
Joseph Geni edited English subtitles for The human skills we need in an unpredictable world |