0:00:08.806,0:00:13.004 I was walking through St Pancras station[br]on my way here, 0:00:13.037,0:00:15.315 and a little man came up to me and said, 0:00:15.334,0:00:18.227 "Here, didn't you used to be [br]Paddy Ashdown?" 0:00:18.248,0:00:19.577 (Laughter) 0:00:19.597,0:00:21.458 So, I said that I thought I had been, 0:00:21.479,0:00:23.950 but the fact that Walter has invited me[br]here today 0:00:23.977,0:00:25.686 seems to indicate that I still am. 0:00:25.707,0:00:28.180 And that's jolly reassuring,[br]especially for me. 0:00:28.200,0:00:31.355 Well, now for something [br]completely different. 0:00:31.375,0:00:33.910 There will be some poetry, [br]one of my passions 0:00:33.931,0:00:38.347 by the way, this thing says 8.41,[br]shouldn't it say something else? 0:00:39.874,0:00:41.874 I was told I had 18 minutes. 0:00:41.894,0:00:44.109 It will go on. Allright.[br]Thank God for that. 0:00:44.129,0:00:46.053 Otherwise, you'd have a real problem. 0:00:47.199,0:00:49.663 There will be some poetry [br]and some history, 0:00:49.684,0:00:52.759 and I shall unveil for you, [br]mostly tounge in cheek, 0:00:53.302,0:00:56.593 Ashdown's third law for the modern age. 0:00:58.104,0:01:01.251 The poetry - and I don't suppose[br]there's anybody here 0:01:01.270,0:01:03.703 that's not an Anglo - 0:01:03.724,0:01:06.251 [in French] well, whose mother tongue[br]is not English? 0:01:08.469,0:01:11.624 There's a poem written by[br]a very famous English poet 0:01:11.645,0:01:13.259 at the end of the 19th century. 0:01:13.280,0:01:16.021 It was said to echo in Churchill's brain 0:01:16.042,0:01:18.041 in the 1930s. 0:01:18.062,0:01:20.061 And the poem goes: 0:01:20.082,0:01:22.081 "On the idle hill of summer, 0:01:22.102,0:01:24.616 lazy with the flow of streams, 0:01:24.755,0:01:26.754 hark I hear a distant drummer, 0:01:26.775,0:01:28.647 drumming like a sound in dreams, 0:01:28.668,0:01:31.667 far and near and low and louder[br]on the roads of earth go by, 0:01:31.688,0:01:34.687 dear to friend and food to powder, 0:01:34.708,0:01:36.623 soldiers marching, 0:01:36.644,0:01:38.372 soon to die." 0:01:38.393,0:01:40.392 Those who are interested in poetry, 0:01:40.413,0:01:43.793 the poem is "A Shropshire Lad"[br]written by A.E. Housman. 0:01:43.814,0:01:45.813 But what Housman understood, 0:01:45.834,0:01:48.834 and you hear it in the symphonies[br]of Nielsen too, 0:01:49.049,0:01:53.211 was that the long, hot, silvan summers 0:01:53.525,0:01:55.524 of stability of the 19th century 0:01:55.545,0:01:57.088 were coming to a close, 0:01:57.109,0:01:58.786 and that we were about to move 0:01:58.807,0:02:01.429 into one of those terrifying[br]periods of history 0:02:01.450,0:02:03.190 when power changes. 0:02:03.564,0:02:05.993 And these are always periods,[br]ladies and gentlemen, 0:02:06.014,0:02:08.564 accompanied by turbulence, 0:02:08.585,0:02:10.828 and all too often by blood. 0:02:10.848,0:02:12.344 And my message for you 0:02:12.365,0:02:14.907 is that I believe[br]we are condemned, if you like, 0:02:14.942,0:02:17.394 to live at just one of those[br]moments in history 0:02:17.415,0:02:18.926 when the gimbals upon which 0:02:18.947,0:02:22.521 the established order of power[br]is beginning to change 0:02:22.542,0:02:24.744 and the new look of the world, 0:02:24.765,0:02:27.061 the new powers that exist in the world, 0:02:27.082,0:02:29.148 are beginning to take form. 0:02:29.169,0:02:32.124 And these are - and we see it[br]very clearly today - 0:02:32.145,0:02:35.553 nearly always highly turbulent[br]times, highly difficult times, 0:02:35.604,0:02:37.603 and all too often very bloody times. 0:02:37.624,0:02:40.275 By the way, it happens[br]about once every century. 0:02:40.296,0:02:42.581 You might argue that the last time[br]it happened - 0:02:42.581,0:02:45.712 and that's what Housman felt coming[br]and what Churchill felt too - 0:02:45.712,0:02:48.616 was that when power passed[br]from the old nations, 0:02:48.637,0:02:50.434 the old powers of Europe, 0:02:50.455,0:02:52.831 across the Atlantic[br]to the new emerging power 0:02:52.852,0:02:54.307 of the United States of America - 0:02:54.328,0:02:56.327 the beginning of the American century. 0:02:56.819,0:02:58.767 And of course, into the vacuum 0:02:58.788,0:03:01.602 where the too-old European[br]powers used to be 0:03:01.623,0:03:04.364 were played the two bloody catastrophes 0:03:04.385,0:03:06.055 of the last century - 0:03:06.076,0:03:08.825 the one in the first part[br]and the one in the second part: 0:03:08.846,0:03:10.174 the two great World Wars. 0:03:10.195,0:03:13.194 Mao Zedong used to refer to them[br]as the European civil wars, 0:03:13.194,0:03:15.909 and it's probably a more[br]accurate way of describing them. 0:03:15.909,0:03:17.330 Well, ladies and gentlemen, 0:03:17.330,0:03:19.180 we live at one of those times. 0:03:19.201,0:03:22.200 But for us, I want to talk[br]about three factors today. 0:03:22.414,0:03:25.132 And the first of these,[br]the first two of these, 0:03:25.153,0:03:27.152 is about a shift in power. 0:03:27.604,0:03:30.918 And the second is about some new[br]dimension which I want to refer to, 0:03:30.939,0:03:33.938 which has never quite happened[br]in the way it's happening now. 0:03:33.959,0:03:37.518 But let's talk about the shifts of power[br]that are occurring to the world. 0:03:37.518,0:03:38.842 And what is happening today 0:03:38.863,0:03:40.604 is, in one sense, frightening 0:03:40.625,0:03:43.303 because it's never happened before. 0:03:43.382,0:03:45.381 We have seen lateral shifts of power - 0:03:45.402,0:03:48.401 the power of Greece passed to Rome 0:03:48.422,0:03:51.001 and the power shifts that occurred 0:03:51.022,0:03:54.021 during the European civilizations - 0:03:55.500,0:03:57.739 but we are seeing something[br]slightly different. 0:03:57.740,0:03:59.739 For power is not just moving laterally 0:03:59.740,0:04:01.499 from nation to nation. 0:04:01.500,0:04:03.245 It's also moving vertically. 0:04:03.266,0:04:06.396 What's happening today[br]is that the power that was encased, 0:04:06.417,0:04:09.214 held to accountability,[br]held to the rule of law, 0:04:09.235,0:04:12.234 within the institution of the nation state 0:04:12.255,0:04:15.476 has now migrated in very large[br]measure onto the global stage. 0:04:16.100,0:04:17.928 The globalization of power - 0:04:17.949,0:04:20.013 we talk about the globalization[br]of markets, 0:04:20.013,0:04:22.894 but actually it's the globalization[br]of real power. 0:04:23.504,0:04:25.778 And where, at the nation state level 0:04:25.799,0:04:27.738 that power is held to accountability 0:04:27.759,0:04:29.452 subject to the rule of law, 0:04:29.473,0:04:32.472 on the international stage it is not. 0:04:32.493,0:04:36.017 The international and the global stage[br]where power now resides: 0:04:36.017,0:04:39.197 the power of the Internet, the power[br]of the satellite broadcasters, 0:04:39.197,0:04:41.560 the power of the money changers - 0:04:41.581,0:04:43.970 this vast money-go-round 0:04:44.100,0:04:47.676 that circulates now 32 times[br]the amount of money necessary 0:04:48.100,0:04:51.099 for the trade it's supposed[br]to be there to finance - 0:04:51.100,0:04:53.099 the money changers, if you like, 0:04:53.080,0:04:54.744 the financial speculators 0:04:54.765,0:04:57.764 that have brought us all[br]to our knees quite recently, 0:04:57.806,0:04:59.854 the power of the multinational[br]corporations 0:04:59.875,0:05:01.824 now developing budgets 0:05:01.845,0:05:04.213 often bigger than medium-sized countries. 0:05:05.100,0:05:07.099 These live in a global space 0:05:07.100,0:05:09.099 which is largely unregulated, 0:05:09.100,0:05:11.680 not subject to the rule of law, 0:05:11.701,0:05:13.940 and in which people may act[br]free of constraint. 0:05:13.961,0:05:16.701 Now that suits the powerful 0:05:16.750,0:05:18.066 up to a moment. 0:05:18.087,0:05:21.812 It's always suitable for those[br]who have the most power 0:05:21.833,0:05:24.423 to operate in spaces without constraint, 0:05:24.444,0:05:27.443 but the lesson of history[br]is that, sooner or later, 0:05:27.734,0:05:29.733 unregulated space - 0:05:29.754,0:05:31.753 space not subject to the rule of law - 0:05:32.100,0:05:35.099 becomes populated, not just[br]by the things you wanted - 0:05:35.100,0:05:37.100 international trade, the Internet, etc. - 0:05:37.120,0:05:39.116 but also by the things you don't want - 0:05:39.116,0:05:41.796 international criminality,[br]international terrorism. 0:05:41.817,0:05:43.967 The revelation of 9/11 0:05:44.100,0:05:47.100 is that even if you[br]are the most powerful nation on Earth, 0:05:49.100,0:05:51.308 nevertheless, 0:05:51.329,0:05:53.594 those who inhabit[br]that space can attack you 0:05:53.615,0:05:55.546 even in your most iconic of cities 0:05:55.567,0:05:57.451 one bright September morning. 0:05:57.472,0:05:59.896 It's said that something like 60 percent 0:05:59.917,0:06:02.916 of the four million dollars[br]that was taken to fund 9/11 0:06:02.937,0:06:05.936 actually passed through the institutions[br]of the Twin Towers 0:06:05.957,0:06:07.956 which 9/11 destroyed. 0:06:08.500,0:06:10.548 You see, our enemies[br]also use this space - 0:06:10.549,0:06:13.549 the space of mass travel, the Internet,[br]satellite broadcasters - 0:06:14.000,0:06:16.834 to be able to get around their poison, 0:06:17.100,0:06:19.796 which is about destroying[br]our systems and our ways. 0:06:19.817,0:06:21.192 Sooner or later, 0:06:21.213,0:06:23.018 sooner or later, 0:06:23.235,0:06:24.978 the rule of history 0:06:24.999,0:06:26.998 is that where power goes 0:06:27.298,0:06:29.751 governance must follow. 0:06:30.203,0:06:32.720 And if it is therefore[br]the case, as I believe it is, 0:06:32.741,0:06:34.740 that one of the phenomenon of our time 0:06:34.761,0:06:36.557 is the globalization of power, 0:06:36.578,0:06:39.577 then it follows[br]that one of the challenges of our time 0:06:39.598,0:06:42.343 is to bring governance[br]to the global space. 0:06:42.364,0:06:45.295 And I believe that the decades[br]ahead of us now 0:06:45.316,0:06:48.748 will be to a greater[br]or lesser extent turbulent 0:06:49.536,0:06:52.535 the more or less we are able[br]to achieve that aim: 0:06:52.556,0:06:54.555 to bring governance to the global space. 0:06:54.592,0:06:56.735 Now notice, I'm not talking[br]about government. 0:06:56.756,0:06:58.478 I'm not talking about setting up 0:06:58.499,0:07:01.304 some global democratic institution. 0:07:01.325,0:07:03.516 My own view, by the way,[br]ladies and gentlemen, 0:07:03.537,0:07:05.939 is that this is unlikely to be done 0:07:05.960,0:07:07.959 by spawning more U.N. institutions. 0:07:07.959,0:07:10.558 If we didn't have the U.N.,[br]we'd have to invent it. 0:07:10.558,0:07:12.460 The world needs an international forum. 0:07:12.460,0:07:15.561 It needs a means by which you can[br]legitimize international action. 0:07:15.711,0:07:18.188 But when it comes to governance[br]of the global space, 0:07:18.209,0:07:20.473 my guess is this won't happen 0:07:20.494,0:07:22.733 through the creation of more U.N.[br]institutions. 0:07:22.930,0:07:25.670 It will actually happen[br]by the powerful coming together 0:07:25.691,0:07:27.690 and making treaty-based systems, 0:07:27.711,0:07:29.710 treaty-based agreements, 0:07:29.731,0:07:31.396 to govern that global space. 0:07:31.417,0:07:34.936 And if you look, you can see them[br]happening, already beginning to emerge. 0:07:34.936,0:07:37.681 The World Trade Organization:[br]treaty-based organization, 0:07:37.702,0:07:39.479 entirely treaty-based, 0:07:39.479,0:07:43.139 and yet, powerful enough to hold[br]even the most powerful, the United States, 0:07:43.139,0:07:44.464 to account if necessary. 0:07:44.505,0:07:46.855 Kyoto: the beginnings[br]of struggling to create 0:07:46.897,0:07:48.733 a treaty-based organization. 0:07:48.797,0:07:50.156 The G20: 0:07:50.177,0:07:52.886 we know now that we have[br]to put together an institution 0:07:53.100,0:07:55.099 which is capable of bringing governance 0:07:55.100,0:07:58.099 to that financial space[br]for financial speculation. 0:07:58.100,0:08:01.099 And that's what the G20 is,[br]a treaty-based institution. 0:08:01.500,0:08:03.145 Now there's a problem there, 0:08:03.166,0:08:05.226 and we'll come back to it in a minute, 0:08:05.226,0:08:07.848 which is that if you bring[br]the most powerful together 0:08:07.848,0:08:10.120 to make the rules[br]in treaty-based institutions, 0:08:10.141,0:08:12.741 to fill that governance space, 0:08:13.500,0:08:16.499 then what happens to the weak[br]who are left out? 0:08:16.500,0:08:17.997 And that's a big problem, 0:08:18.018,0:08:20.017 and we'll return to it in just a second. 0:08:20.038,0:08:21.815 So there's my first message, 0:08:21.836,0:08:25.141 that if you are to pass[br]through these turbulent times 0:08:25.500,0:08:27.887 more or less turbulently, 0:08:27.908,0:08:29.816 then our success in doing that 0:08:29.837,0:08:32.260 will in large measure[br]depend on our capacity 0:08:32.282,0:08:34.164 to bring sensible governance 0:08:34.186,0:08:36.184 to the global space. 0:08:36.206,0:08:38.951 And watch that beginning to happen. 0:08:38.972,0:08:40.323 My second point is, 0:08:40.345,0:08:43.011 and I know I don't have to talk[br]to an audience like this 0:08:43.033,0:08:44.785 about such a thing, 0:08:44.920,0:08:47.919 but power is not just shifting vertically, 0:08:47.940,0:08:49.773 it's also shifting horizontally. 0:08:49.794,0:08:53.424 You might argue that the story,[br]the history of civilizations, 0:08:53.460,0:08:56.459 has been civilizations[br]gathered around seas - 0:08:56.480,0:08:58.640 with the first ones[br]around the Mediterranean, 0:08:58.661,0:09:03.251 the more recent ones in the ascendents[br]of Western power around the Atlantic. 0:09:03.500,0:09:04.680 Well it seems to me 0:09:04.701,0:09:08.030 that we're now seeing a fundamental[br]shift of power, broadly speaking, 0:09:08.030,0:09:10.720 away from nations gathered[br]around the Atlantic [seaboard] 0:09:10.741,0:09:13.312 to the nations gathered[br]around the Pacific rim. 0:09:13.333,0:09:15.073 Now that begins with economic power, 0:09:15.094,0:09:16.919 but that's the way it always begins. 0:09:16.919,0:09:20.170 You already begin to see[br]the development of foreign policies, 0:09:20.191,0:09:22.059 the augmentation of military budgets 0:09:22.080,0:09:24.900 occurring in the other[br]growing powers in the world. 0:09:24.921,0:09:26.162 I think actually 0:09:26.183,0:09:29.479 this is not so much a shift[br]from the West to the East; 0:09:29.500,0:09:31.337 something different is happening. 0:09:31.358,0:09:33.357 My guess is, for what it's worth, 0:09:33.378,0:09:35.377 is that the United States will remain 0:09:35.398,0:09:37.259 the most powerful nation on Earth 0:09:37.280,0:09:40.180 for the next 10 years, 15, 0:09:40.201,0:09:43.200 but the context[br]in which she holds her power 0:09:43.221,0:09:46.220 has now radically altered;[br]it has radically changed. 0:09:46.500,0:09:48.499 We are coming out of 50 years, 0:09:48.500,0:09:50.499 most unusual years, of history 0:09:50.500,0:09:53.499 in which we have had[br]a totally mono-polar world, 0:09:53.500,0:09:55.499 in which every compass needle 0:09:55.500,0:09:56.950 for or against 0:09:56.971,0:09:59.970 has to be referenced by its[br]position to Washington - 0:09:59.991,0:10:02.991 a world bestrode by a single colossus. 0:10:03.563,0:10:05.958 But that's not a usual case in history. 0:10:05.979,0:10:07.716 In fact, what's now emerging 0:10:07.737,0:10:09.736 is the much more normal case of history. 0:10:09.757,0:10:11.518 You're beginning to see the emergence 0:10:11.539,0:10:13.538 of a multi-polar world. 0:10:13.559,0:10:14.962 Up until now, 0:10:14.983,0:10:18.764 the United States has been the dominant[br]feature of our world. 0:10:18.785,0:10:20.958 They will remain the most powerful nation, 0:10:20.996,0:10:22.975 but they will be the most powerful nation 0:10:22.996,0:10:24.855 in an increasingly multi-polar world. 0:10:24.855,0:10:28.115 And you begin to see the alternative[br]centers of power building up - 0:10:28.115,0:10:29.172 in China, of course, 0:10:29.193,0:10:32.926 though my own guess is that China's ascent[br]to greatness is not smooth. 0:10:33.099,0:10:34.744 It's going to be quite grumpy 0:10:34.765,0:10:37.116 as China begins to democratize her society 0:10:37.137,0:10:39.116 after liberalizing her economy. 0:10:39.137,0:10:41.680 But that's a subject[br]of a different discussion. 0:10:41.701,0:10:43.700 You see India, you see Brazil. 0:10:43.880,0:10:45.458 You see increasingly 0:10:45.479,0:10:49.315 that the world now looks[br]actually, for us Europeans, 0:10:49.372,0:10:52.371 much more like Europe in the 19th century. 0:10:52.500,0:10:54.218 Europe in the 19th century: 0:10:54.239,0:10:56.525 a great British foreign[br]secretary, Lord Canning, 0:10:56.546,0:10:59.297 used to describe it as[br]the "European concert of powers." 0:10:59.325,0:11:01.360 There was a balance, a five-sided balance. 0:11:01.384,0:11:03.469 Britain always played to the balance. 0:11:03.490,0:11:05.961 If Paris got together with Berlin, 0:11:05.961,0:11:09.242 Britain got together with Vienna[br]and Rome to provide a counterbalance. 0:11:09.242,0:11:10.342 Now notice, 0:11:10.363,0:11:13.585 in a period which is dominated[br]by a mono-polar world, 0:11:13.606,0:11:15.061 you have fixed alliances - 0:11:15.082,0:11:17.081 NATO, the Warsaw Pact. 0:11:17.102,0:11:19.021 A fixed polarity of power 0:11:19.042,0:11:20.894 means fixed alliances. 0:11:20.915,0:11:22.914 But a multiple polarity of power 0:11:23.262,0:11:25.261 means shifting and changing alliances. 0:11:25.282,0:11:27.132 And that's the world we're coming into, 0:11:27.153,0:11:29.069 in which we will increasingly see 0:11:29.090,0:11:31.089 that our alliances are not fixed. 0:11:31.500,0:11:34.199 Canning, the great British[br]foreign secretary once said, 0:11:34.199,0:11:35.799 "Britain has a common interest, 0:11:35.799,0:11:37.323 but no common allies." 0:11:37.344,0:11:39.343 And we will see increasingly 0:11:39.500,0:11:40.820 that even we in the West 0:11:40.841,0:11:42.840 will reach out, have to reach out, 0:11:42.861,0:11:45.574 beyond the cozy circle[br]of the Atlantic powers 0:11:45.595,0:11:47.431 to make alliances with others 0:11:47.500,0:11:49.804 if we want to get things[br]done in the world. 0:11:49.825,0:11:51.824 Note, that when we went into Libya, 0:11:52.047,0:11:54.604 it was not good enough for the West[br]to do it alone; 0:11:54.631,0:11:56.144 we had to bring others in. 0:11:56.165,0:11:58.628 We had to bring, in this case,[br]the Arab League in. 0:11:58.649,0:12:01.874 My guess is Iraq and Afghanistan[br]are the last times 0:12:01.903,0:12:04.595 when the West has tried[br]to do it themselves, 0:12:04.616,0:12:06.241 and we haven't succeeded. 0:12:06.262,0:12:07.606 My guess 0:12:07.627,0:12:11.471 is that we're reaching the beginning[br]of the end of 400 years - 0:12:11.520,0:12:14.499 I say 400 years because it's the end[br]of the Ottoman Empire - 0:12:14.500,0:12:16.499 of the hegemony of Western power, 0:12:16.500,0:12:19.500 Western institutions and Western values. 0:12:20.500,0:12:23.499 You know, up until now,[br]if the West got its act together, 0:12:23.480,0:12:24.907 it could propose and dispose 0:12:24.907,0:12:26.787 in every corner of the world. 0:12:27.751,0:12:29.499 But that's no longer true. 0:12:29.500,0:12:31.499 Take the last financial crisis 0:12:31.500,0:12:33.499 after the Second World War. 0:12:33.500,0:12:34.878 The West got together - 0:12:34.899,0:12:38.362 the Bretton Woods Institution,[br]World Bank, International Monetary Fund - 0:12:38.362,0:12:39.945 the problem solved. 0:12:39.945,0:12:41.927 Now we have to call in others. 0:12:41.967,0:12:43.807 Now we have to create the G20. 0:12:43.828,0:12:46.497 Now we have to reach[br]beyond the cozy circle 0:12:46.568,0:12:48.354 of our Western friends. 0:12:48.375,0:12:50.204 Let me make a prediction for you, 0:12:50.225,0:12:52.950 which is probably even more startling. 0:12:52.971,0:12:55.970 I suspect we are now reaching the end 0:12:55.991,0:12:57.788 of 400 years 0:12:57.809,0:12:59.808 when Western power was enough. 0:13:00.500,0:13:02.500 People say to me, "The Chinese, of course, 0:13:02.520,0:13:04.305 they'll never get themselves involved 0:13:04.305,0:13:07.217 in peace-making, multilateral[br]peace-making around the world." 0:13:07.217,0:13:08.432 Oh yes? Why not? 0:13:08.453,0:13:09.988 How many Chinese troops 0:13:10.009,0:13:13.014 are serving under the blue beret,[br]serving under the blue flag, 0:13:13.014,0:13:15.386 serving under the U.N.[br]command in the world today? 0:13:15.386,0:13:16.414 3,700. 0:13:16.414,0:13:18.612 How many Americans? 11. 0:13:18.633,0:13:21.144 What is the largest naval contingent 0:13:21.174,0:13:24.173 tackling the issue of Somali pirates? 0:13:24.475,0:13:25.914 The Chinese naval contingent. 0:13:25.935,0:13:28.434 Of course they are,[br]they are a mercantilist nation. 0:13:28.434,0:13:30.274 They want to keep the sea lanes open. 0:13:30.274,0:13:32.964 Increasingly, we are going[br]to have to do business 0:13:32.985,0:13:35.984 with people with whom[br]we do not share values, 0:13:36.005,0:13:38.917 but with whom, for the moment,[br]we share common interests. 0:13:38.938,0:13:40.937 It's a whole new different way 0:13:40.958,0:13:43.957 of looking at the world[br]that is now emerging. 0:13:44.396,0:13:46.178 And here's the third factor, 0:13:46.199,0:13:48.584 which is totally different. 0:13:48.738,0:13:50.737 Today in our modern world, 0:13:50.758,0:13:52.375 because of the Internet, 0:13:52.396,0:13:55.616 because of the kinds of things[br]people have been talking about here, 0:13:55.616,0:13:58.417 everything is connected to everything. 0:13:59.651,0:14:01.650 We are now interdependent. 0:14:01.671,0:14:03.670 We are now interlocked, 0:14:03.991,0:14:05.990 as nations, as individuals, 0:14:06.011,0:14:08.202 in a way which has never[br]been the case before, 0:14:08.223,0:14:10.111 never been the case before. 0:14:10.864,0:14:13.127 The interrelationship of nations, 0:14:13.148,0:14:14.994 well it's always existed. 0:14:15.015,0:14:17.951 Diplomacy is about managing[br]the interrelationship of nations. 0:14:17.951,0:14:20.012 But now we are intimately locked together. 0:14:20.012,0:14:21.967 You get swine flu in Mexico, 0:14:22.309,0:14:24.405 it's a problem[br]for Charles de Gaulle Airport 0:14:24.426,0:14:25.775 24 hours later. 0:14:25.796,0:14:28.442 Lehman Brothers goes down,[br]the whole lot collapses. 0:14:28.463,0:14:31.462 There are fires in the steppes of Russia, 0:14:31.682,0:14:33.681 food riots in Africa. 0:14:33.702,0:14:37.747 We are all now deeply, deeply,[br]deeply interconnected. 0:14:38.500,0:14:40.787 And what that means 0:14:40.808,0:14:43.808 is the idea of a nation state[br]acting alone, 0:14:45.190,0:14:47.189 not connected with others, 0:14:47.210,0:14:49.055 not working with others, 0:14:49.076,0:14:51.075 is no longer a viable proposition. 0:14:51.095,0:14:53.476 Because the actions of a nation state 0:14:53.497,0:14:55.496 are neither confined to itself, 0:14:55.951,0:14:58.436 nor is it sufficient[br]for the nation state itself 0:14:58.480,0:15:00.173 to control its own territory, 0:15:00.194,0:15:02.919 because the effects[br]outside the nation state 0:15:02.940,0:15:05.601 are now beginning to affect[br]what happens inside them. 0:15:05.622,0:15:07.427 I was a young soldier 0:15:07.448,0:15:11.307 in the last of the small[br]empire wars of Britain. 0:15:11.992,0:15:13.991 At that time, the defense of my country 0:15:14.012,0:15:16.759 was about one thing and one thing only: 0:15:16.780,0:15:19.466 how strong was our army,[br]how strong was our air force, 0:15:19.487,0:15:22.132 how strong was our navy[br]and how strong were our allies. 0:15:22.153,0:15:24.344 That was when the enemy[br]was outside the walls. 0:15:24.365,0:15:26.601 Now the enemy is inside the walls. 0:15:26.622,0:15:29.191 Now if I want to talk[br]about the defense of my country, 0:15:29.191,0:15:31.351 I have to speak to the Minister of Health 0:15:31.351,0:15:34.061 because pandemic disease[br]is a threat to my security, 0:15:34.082,0:15:36.296 I have to speak to the Minister[br]of Agriculture 0:15:36.296,0:15:38.613 because food security[br]is a threat to my security, 0:15:38.634,0:15:41.634 I have to speak[br]to the Minister of Industry 0:15:41.655,0:15:44.931 because the fragility[br]of our hi-tech infrastructure 0:15:44.952,0:15:47.000 is now a point of attack[br]for our enemies - 0:15:48.026,0:15:49.499 as we see from cyber warfare - 0:15:49.500,0:15:51.976 I have to speak[br]to the Minister of Home Affairs 0:15:51.997,0:15:54.405 because who has entered my country, 0:15:54.426,0:15:57.230 who lives in that terraced[br]house in that inner city 0:15:57.251,0:15:59.743 has a direct effect[br]on what happens in my country - 0:15:59.743,0:16:02.584 as we in London saw in the 7/7 bombings. 0:16:03.158,0:16:05.983 It's no longer the case[br]that the security of a country 0:16:06.004,0:16:09.004 is simply a matter for its soldiers[br]and its ministry of defense. 0:16:09.025,0:16:11.956 It's its capacity to lock[br]together its institutions. 0:16:12.317,0:16:15.028 And this tells you[br]something very important. 0:16:15.049,0:16:17.048 It tells you that, in fact, 0:16:17.069,0:16:19.544 our governments, vertically constructed, 0:16:19.565,0:16:22.673 constructed on the economic model[br]of the Industrial Revolution - 0:16:22.673,0:16:25.499 vertical hierarchy,[br]specialization of tasks, 0:16:25.500,0:16:27.286 command structures - 0:16:27.307,0:16:29.306 have got the wrong structures completely. 0:16:29.327,0:16:30.413 You in business know 0:16:30.434,0:16:33.507 that the paradigm structure[br]of our time, ladies and gentlemen, 0:16:33.507,0:16:34.533 is the network. 0:16:34.697,0:16:36.745 It's your capacity[br]to network that matters, 0:16:37.163,0:16:40.094 both within your governments[br]and externally. 0:16:40.500,0:16:42.499 So here is Ashdown's third law. 0:16:42.500,0:16:45.434 By the way, don't ask me[br]about Ashdown's first and second law 0:16:45.434,0:16:47.278 because I haven't invented those yet; 0:16:47.278,0:16:50.043 it always sounds better[br]if there's a third law, doesn't it? 0:16:50.043,0:16:52.182 Ashdown's third law[br]is that in the modern age, 0:16:52.182,0:16:54.299 where everything[br]is connected to everything, 0:16:54.299,0:16:57.033 the most important thing[br]about what you can do 0:16:57.068,0:16:59.110 is what you can do with others. 0:16:59.131,0:17:01.322 The most important bit[br]about your structure - 0:17:01.322,0:17:04.227 whether you're a government,[br]whether you're an army regiment, 0:17:04.227,0:17:05.665 whether you're a business - 0:17:05.665,0:17:07.817 is your docking points,[br]your inter-connectors, 0:17:07.817,0:17:09.746 your capacity to network with others. 0:17:09.746,0:17:11.499 You understand that in industry; 0:17:11.520,0:17:13.021 governments don't. 0:17:13.800,0:17:15.800 But now one final thing. 0:17:15.820,0:17:18.664 If it is the case, ladies[br]and gentlemen - and it is - 0:17:18.693,0:17:20.377 that we are now locked together 0:17:20.398,0:17:22.828 in a way that has never[br]been quite the same before, 0:17:23.123,0:17:26.123 then it's also the case that we share[br]a destiny with each other. 0:17:26.563,0:17:29.562 Suddenly and for the very first time, 0:17:29.583,0:17:32.582 collective defense, the thing[br]that has dominated us 0:17:32.896,0:17:34.895 as the concept of securing our nations, 0:17:35.500,0:17:37.007 is no longer enough. 0:17:37.007,0:17:38.185 It used to be the case 0:17:38.185,0:17:41.252 that if my tribe was more powerful[br]than their tribe, I was safe; 0:17:41.252,0:17:44.380 if my country was more powerful[br]than their country, I was safe; 0:17:44.380,0:17:47.864 my alliance, like NATO, was more powerful[br]than their alliance, I was safe. 0:17:47.864,0:17:49.319 It is no longer the case. 0:17:49.319,0:17:52.247 The advent of the interconnectedness 0:17:52.268,0:17:54.232 and of the weapons of mass destruction 0:17:54.232,0:17:55.893 means that, increasingly, 0:17:55.894,0:17:57.893 I share a destiny with my enemy. 0:17:58.000,0:17:59.398 When I was a diplomat 0:17:59.419,0:18:02.418 negotiating the disarmament[br]treaties with the Soviet Union 0:18:02.603,0:18:04.602 in Geneva in the 1970s, 0:18:04.623,0:18:06.622 we succeeded because we understood 0:18:06.643,0:18:08.642 we shared a destiny with them. 0:18:08.713,0:18:11.712 Collective security is not enough. 0:18:12.159,0:18:13.914 Peace has come to Northern Ireland 0:18:13.935,0:18:17.112 because both sides realized[br]that the zero-sum game couldn't work. 0:18:17.139,0:18:19.779 They shared a destiny with their enemies. 0:18:19.808,0:18:22.429 One of the great barriers[br]to peace in the Middle East 0:18:22.429,0:18:25.439 is that both sides, both Israel[br]and, I think, the Palestinians, 0:18:25.470,0:18:26.701 do not understand 0:18:26.722,0:18:29.288 that they share a collective destiny. 0:18:29.627,0:18:31.626 And so suddenly, ladies and gentlemen, 0:18:31.647,0:18:33.296 what has been the proposition 0:18:33.317,0:18:36.316 of visionaries and poets down the ages 0:18:36.508,0:18:38.926 becomes something we have[br]to take seriously 0:18:38.947,0:18:40.878 as a matter of public policy. 0:18:41.047,0:18:44.046 I started with a poem, I'll end with one. 0:18:44.067,0:18:46.505 The great poem of John Donne's. 0:18:47.047,0:18:50.047 "Send not for whom the bell tolls." 0:18:51.079,0:18:53.157 The poem is called "No Man is an Island." 0:18:53.157,0:18:54.671 And it goes: 0:18:55.253,0:18:57.881 "Every man's death affected me, 0:18:57.913,0:19:00.239 for I am involved in mankind, 0:19:00.500,0:19:02.499 send not to ask 0:19:02.500,0:19:04.499 for whom the bell tolls, 0:19:04.500,0:19:06.499 it tolls for thee." 0:19:06.500,0:19:09.499 For John Donne,[br]a recommendation of morality. 0:19:10.084,0:19:11.499 For us, I think, 0:19:11.500,0:19:14.054 part of the equation for our survival. 0:19:14.500,0:19:15.619 Thank you very much. 0:19:15.640,0:19:18.161 (Applause)