0:00:16.340,0:00:18.171
Here's a startling fact:

0:00:18.195,0:00:21.916
in the 45 years since the introduction[br]of the automated teller machine,

0:00:21.940,0:00:24.796
those vending machines that dispense cash,

0:00:24.820,0:00:27.996
the number of human bank tellers[br]employed in the United States

0:00:28.020,0:00:29.276
has roughly doubled,

0:00:29.300,0:00:32.595
from about a quarter of a million[br]to a half a million.

0:00:32.619,0:00:35.656
A quarter of a million in 1970[br]to about a half a million today,

0:00:35.680,0:00:39.916
with 100,000 added since the year 2000.

0:00:39.940,0:00:42.356
These facts, revealed in a recent book

0:00:42.380,0:00:45.516
by Boston University[br]economist James Bessen,

0:00:45.540,0:00:47.716
raise an intriguing question:

0:00:47.740,0:00:49.636
what are all those tellers doing,

0:00:49.660,0:00:53.676
and why hasn't automation[br]eliminated their employment by now?

0:00:53.700,0:00:55.036
If you think about it,

0:00:55.060,0:00:58.196
many of the great inventions[br]of the last 200 years

0:00:58.220,0:01:01.020
were designed to replace human labor.

0:01:01.820,0:01:03.596
Tractors were developed

0:01:03.620,0:01:07.956
to substitute mechanical power[br]for human physical toil.

0:01:07.980,0:01:10.316
Assembly lines were engineered

0:01:10.340,0:01:13.676
to replace inconsistent human handiwork

0:01:13.700,0:01:15.636
with machine perfection.

0:01:15.660,0:01:18.876
Computers were programmed to swap out

0:01:18.900,0:01:21.556
error-prone, inconsistent[br]human calculation

0:01:21.580,0:01:23.340
with digital perfection.

0:01:23.860,0:01:26.036
These inventions have worked.

0:01:26.060,0:01:28.116
We no longer dig ditches by hand,

0:01:28.140,0:01:30.196
pound tools out of wrought iron

0:01:30.220,0:01:32.500
or do bookkeeping using actual books.

0:01:33.340,0:01:39.111
And yet, the fraction of US adults[br]employed in the labor market

0:01:39.200,0:01:42.056
is higher now in 2016

0:01:42.079,0:01:44.915
than it was 125 years ago, in 1890,

0:01:44.940,0:01:47.956
and it's risen in just about every decade

0:01:47.980,0:01:50.300
in the intervening 125 years.

0:01:50.860,0:01:52.540
This poses a paradox.

0:01:53.060,0:01:56.116
Our machines increasingly[br]do our work for us.

0:01:56.140,0:02:00.276
Why doesn't this make our labor redundant[br]and our skills obsolete?

0:02:00.300,0:02:03.996
Why are there still so many jobs?

0:02:04.020,0:02:05.756
(Laughter)

0:02:05.780,0:02:08.116
I'm going to try to answer[br]that question tonight,

0:02:08.139,0:02:11.876
and along the way, I'm going to tell you[br]what this means for the future of work

0:02:11.900,0:02:16.076
and the challenges that automation[br]does and does not pose

0:02:16.100,0:02:17.540
for our society.

0:02:18.820,0:02:20.580
Why are there so many jobs?

0:02:21.980,0:02:25.356
There are actually two fundamental[br]economic principles at stake.

0:02:25.380,0:02:28.076
One has to do with human genius

0:02:28.100,0:02:29.516
and creativity.

0:02:29.540,0:02:32.396
The other has to do[br]with human insatiability,

0:02:32.420,0:02:33.996
or greed, if you like.

0:02:34.020,0:02:36.756
I'm going to call the first of these[br]the O-ring principle,

0:02:36.780,0:02:38.956
and it determines[br]the type of work that we do.

0:02:38.980,0:02:41.596
The second principle[br]is the never-get-enough principle,

0:02:41.620,0:02:45.100
and it determines how many jobs[br]there actually are.

0:02:45.740,0:02:48.076
Let's start with the O-ring.

0:02:48.700,0:02:51.476
ATMs, automated teller machines,

0:02:51.500,0:02:54.836
had two countervailing effects[br]on bank teller employment.

0:02:54.860,0:02:57.556
As you would expect,[br]they replaced a lot of teller tasks.

0:02:57.580,0:03:00.260
The number of tellers per branch[br]fell by about a third.

0:03:01.140,0:03:04.956
But banks quickly discovered that it[br]also was cheaper to open new branches,

0:03:04.980,0:03:08.116
and the number of bank branches[br]increased by about 40 percent

0:03:08.140,0:03:09.636
in the same time period.

0:03:09.660,0:03:13.740
The net result was more branches[br]and more tellers.

0:03:14.340,0:03:17.756
But those tellers were doing[br]somewhat different work.

0:03:17.780,0:03:21.436
As their routine,[br]cash-handling tasks receded,

0:03:21.460,0:03:23.596
they became less like checkout clerks

0:03:23.620,0:03:25.436
and more like salespeople,

0:03:25.460,0:03:27.516
forging relationships with customers,

0:03:27.540,0:03:28.756
solving problems

0:03:28.780,0:03:32.996
and introducing them to new products[br]like credit cards, loans and investments:

0:03:33.020,0:03:36.860
more tellers doing[br]a more cognitively demanding job.

0:03:37.740,0:03:39.380
There's a general principle here.

0:03:40.020,0:03:41.716
Most of the work that we do

0:03:41.740,0:03:45.220
requires a multiplicity of skills,

0:03:46.060,0:03:49.236
and brains and brawn,

0:03:49.260,0:03:52.876
technical expertise and intuitive mastery,

0:03:52.900,0:03:55.860
perspiration and inspiration[br]in the words of Thomas Edison.

0:03:56.380,0:03:59.636
In general, automating[br]some subset of those tasks

0:03:59.660,0:04:01.876
doesn't make the other ones unnecessary.

0:04:01.900,0:04:04.860
In fact, it makes them more important.

0:04:05.980,0:04:07.956
It increases their economic value.

0:04:07.980,0:04:09.996
Let me give you a stark example.

0:04:10.020,0:04:13.836
In 1986, the space shuttle Challenger

0:04:13.860,0:04:16.156
exploded and crashed back down to Earth

0:04:16.180,0:04:18.100
less than two minutes after takeoff.

0:04:18.620,0:04:21.716
The cause of that crash, it turned out,

0:04:21.740,0:04:25.276
was an inexpensive rubber O-ring[br]in the booster rocket

0:04:25.300,0:04:28.156
that had frozen on the launchpad[br]the night before

0:04:28.180,0:04:31.556
and failed catastrophically[br]moments after takeoff.

0:04:31.580,0:04:34.395
In this multibillion dollar enterprise

0:04:34.419,0:04:36.116
that simple rubber O-ring

0:04:36.140,0:04:38.715
made the difference[br]between mission success

0:04:38.739,0:04:41.580
and the calamitous death[br]of seven astronauts.

0:04:42.500,0:04:46.236
An ingenious metaphor[br]for this tragic setting

0:04:46.260,0:04:48.476
is the O-ring production function,

0:04:48.500,0:04:50.996
named by Harvard economist Michael Kremer

0:04:51.020,0:04:53.036
after the Challenger disaster.

0:04:53.060,0:04:55.636
The O-ring production function[br]conceives of the work

0:04:55.660,0:04:57.996
as a series of interlocking steps,

0:04:58.020,0:04:59.276
links in a chain.

0:04:59.300,0:05:02.996
Every one of those links must hold[br]for the mission to succeed.

0:05:03.020,0:05:05.156
If any of them fails,

0:05:05.180,0:05:08.476
the mission, or the product[br]or the service,

0:05:08.500,0:05:09.820
comes crashing down.

0:05:10.460,0:05:15.396
This precarious situation[br]has a surprisingly positive implication,

0:05:15.420,0:05:17.316
which is that improvements

0:05:17.340,0:05:20.316
in the reliability[br]of any one link in the chain

0:05:20.340,0:05:24.116
increases the value[br]of improving any of the other links.

0:05:24.140,0:05:29.116
Concretely, if most of the links[br]are brittle and prone to breakage,

0:05:29.140,0:05:31.596
the fact that your link[br]is not that reliable

0:05:31.620,0:05:32.876
is not that important.

0:05:32.900,0:05:34.900
Probably something else will break anyway.

0:05:34.924,0:05:38.916
But as all the other links[br]become robust and reliable,

0:05:38.940,0:05:42.436
the importance of your link[br]becomes more essential.

0:05:42.460,0:05:44.780
In the limit, everything depends upon it.

0:05:45.540,0:05:49.076
The reason the O-ring was critical[br]to space shuttle Challenger

0:05:49.100,0:05:51.820
is because everything else[br]worked perfectly.

0:05:52.380,0:05:54.956
If the Challenger were[br]kind of the space era equivalent

0:05:54.980,0:05:57.516
of Microsoft Windows 2000 --

0:05:57.540,0:05:59.636
(Laughter)

0:05:59.660,0:06:02.116
the reliability of the O-ring[br]wouldn't have mattered

0:06:02.140,0:06:03.998
because the machine would have crashed.

0:06:04.022,0:06:05.502
(Laughter)

0:06:06.860,0:06:08.436
Here's the broader point.

0:06:08.460,0:06:12.276
In much of the work that we do,[br]we are the O-rings.

0:06:12.300,0:06:15.836
Yes, ATMs could do[br]certain cash-handling tasks

0:06:15.860,0:06:18.876
faster and better than tellers,

0:06:18.900,0:06:20.956
but that didn't make tellers superfluous.

0:06:20.980,0:06:24.276
It increased the importance[br]of their problem-solving skills

0:06:24.300,0:06:26.916
and their relationships with customers.

0:06:26.940,0:06:30.236
The same principle applies[br]if we're building a building,

0:06:30.260,0:06:32.796
if we're diagnosing[br]and caring for a patient,

0:06:32.820,0:06:35.956
or if we are teaching a class

0:06:35.980,0:06:38.436
to a roomful of high schoolers.

0:06:38.460,0:06:40.836
As our tools improve,

0:06:40.860,0:06:42.956
technology magnifies our leverage

0:06:42.980,0:06:46.876
and increases the importance[br]of our expertise

0:06:46.900,0:06:49.100
and our judgment and our creativity.

0:06:49.900,0:06:52.140
And that brings me[br]to the second principle:

0:06:53.060,0:06:54.260
never get enough.

0:06:55.180,0:06:57.596
You may be thinking, OK, O-ring, got it,

0:06:57.620,0:07:00.716
that says the jobs that people do[br]will be important.

0:07:00.740,0:07:03.716
They can't be done by machines,[br]but they still need to be done.

0:07:03.740,0:07:06.636
But that doesn't tell me[br]how many jobs there will need to be.

0:07:06.660,0:07:09.116
If you think about it,[br]isn't it kind of self-evident

0:07:09.140,0:07:11.676
that once we get sufficiently[br]productive at something,

0:07:11.700,0:07:13.796
we've basically[br]worked our way out of a job?

0:07:13.820,0:07:16.596
In 1900, 40 percent of all US employment

0:07:16.620,0:07:17.876
was on farms.

0:07:17.900,0:07:20.156
Today, it's less than two percent.

0:07:20.180,0:07:22.356
Why are there so few farmers today?

0:07:22.380,0:07:24.236
It's not because we're eating less.

0:07:24.260,0:07:26.916
(Laughter)

0:07:26.940,0:07:29.676
A century of productivity[br]growth in farming

0:07:29.700,0:07:31.876
means that now,[br]a couple of million farmers

0:07:31.900,0:07:34.636
can feed a nation of 320 million.

0:07:34.660,0:07:36.316
That's amazing progress,

0:07:36.340,0:07:40.476
but it also means there are[br]only so many O-ring jobs left in farming.

0:07:40.500,0:07:43.516
So clearly, technology can eliminate jobs.

0:07:43.540,0:07:45.276
Farming is only one example.

0:07:45.300,0:07:46.940
There are many others like it.

0:07:48.340,0:07:52.316
But what's true about a single product[br]or service or industry

0:07:52.340,0:07:55.116
has never been true[br]about the economy as a whole.

0:07:55.140,0:07:57.636
Many of the industries[br]in which we now work --

0:07:57.660,0:07:59.796
health and medicine,

0:07:59.820,0:08:02.036
finance and insurance,

0:08:02.060,0:08:03.700
electronics and computing --

0:08:04.620,0:08:07.356
were tiny or barely existent[br]a century ago.

0:08:07.380,0:08:10.196
Many of the products[br]that we spend a lot of our money on --

0:08:10.220,0:08:12.356
air conditioners, sport utility vehicles,

0:08:12.380,0:08:14.076
computers and mobile devices --

0:08:14.100,0:08:15.756
were unattainably expensive,

0:08:15.780,0:08:18.220
or just hadn't been invented[br]a century ago.

0:08:18.820,0:08:23.796
As automation frees our time,[br]increases the scope of what is possible,

0:08:23.820,0:08:27.036
we invent new products,[br]new ideas, new services

0:08:27.060,0:08:28.636
that command our attention,

0:08:28.660,0:08:30.196
occupy our time

0:08:30.220,0:08:31.860
and spur consumption.

0:08:32.659,0:08:35.876
You may think some[br]of these things are frivolous --

0:08:35.899,0:08:38.674
extreme yoga, adventure tourism,

0:08:38.700,0:08:39.956
Pokemon GO --

0:08:39.980,0:08:41.299
and I might agree with you.

0:08:41.879,0:08:45.356
But people desire these things,[br]and they're willing to work hard for them.

0:08:45.380,0:08:47.556
The average worker in 2015

0:08:47.580,0:08:51.836
wanting to attain[br]the average living standard in 1915

0:08:51.860,0:08:55.196
could do so by working[br]just 17 weeks a year,

0:08:55.220,0:08:56.660
one third of the time.

0:08:57.140,0:08:59.316
But most people don't choose to do that.

0:08:59.340,0:09:01.035
They are willing to work hard

0:09:01.059,0:09:04.940
to harvest the technological bounty[br]that is available to them.

0:09:05.380,0:09:09.476
Material abundance has never[br]eliminated perceived scarcity.

0:09:09.500,0:09:12.076
In the words of economist[br]Thorstein Veblen,

0:09:12.100,0:09:14.740
invention is the mother of necessity.

0:09:16.420,0:09:17.620
Now ...

0:09:18.300,0:09:20.156
So if you accept these two principles,

0:09:20.180,0:09:23.076
the O-ring principle[br]and the never-get-enough principle,

0:09:23.100,0:09:24.436
then you agree with me.

0:09:24.460,0:09:25.860
There will be jobs.

0:09:26.460,0:09:28.636
Does that mean there's[br]nothing to worry about?

0:09:28.660,0:09:31.436
Automation, employment, robots and jobs --

0:09:31.460,0:09:33.380
it'll all take care of itself?

0:09:34.020,0:09:35.236
No.

0:09:35.260,0:09:37.316
That is not my argument.

0:09:37.340,0:09:39.876
Automation creates wealth

0:09:39.900,0:09:42.476
by allowing us to do[br]more work in less time.

0:09:42.500,0:09:44.076
There is no economic law

0:09:44.100,0:09:46.876
that says that we[br]will use that wealth well,

0:09:46.900,0:09:48.700
and that is worth worrying about.

0:09:49.700,0:09:51.516
Consider two countries,

0:09:51.540,0:09:53.676
Norway and Saudi Arabia.

0:09:53.700,0:09:55.276
Both oil-rich nations,

0:09:55.300,0:09:58.876
it's like they have money[br]spurting out of a hole in the ground.

0:09:58.900,0:10:00.436
(Laughter)

0:10:00.460,0:10:05.676
But they haven't used that wealth[br]equally well to foster human prosperity,

0:10:05.700,0:10:06.900
human prospering.

0:10:07.340,0:10:10.076
Norway is a thriving democracy.

0:10:10.100,0:10:13.756
By and large, its citizens[br]work and play well together.

0:10:13.780,0:10:16.796
It's typically numbered[br]between first and fourth

0:10:16.820,0:10:19.556
in rankings of national happiness.

0:10:19.580,0:10:22.236
Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy

0:10:22.260,0:10:25.876
in which many citizens[br]lack a path for personal advancement.

0:10:25.900,0:10:29.396
It's typically ranked 35th[br]among nations in happiness,

0:10:29.420,0:10:31.516
which is low for such a wealthy nation.

0:10:31.540,0:10:32.876
Just by way of comparison,

0:10:32.900,0:10:35.700
the US is typically ranked[br]around 12th or 13th.

0:10:36.300,0:10:38.396
The difference between these two countries

0:10:38.420,0:10:39.676
is not their wealth

0:10:39.700,0:10:41.436
and it's not their technology.

0:10:41.460,0:10:42.780
It's their institutions.

0:10:43.460,0:10:46.636
Norway has invested to build a society

0:10:46.660,0:10:49.996
with opportunity and economic mobility.

0:10:50.020,0:10:52.196
Saudi Arabia has raised living standards

0:10:52.220,0:10:55.476
while frustrating[br]many other human strivings.

0:10:55.500,0:10:58.276
Two countries, both wealthy,

0:10:58.300,0:11:00.020
not equally well off.

0:11:00.780,0:11:05.116
And this brings me[br]to the challenge that we face today,

0:11:05.140,0:11:07.276
the challenge that[br]automation poses for us.

0:11:07.300,0:11:09.756
The challenge is not[br]that we're running out of work.

0:11:09.780,0:11:11.716
The US has added 14 million jobs

0:11:11.740,0:11:13.876
since the depths of the Great Recession.

0:11:13.900,0:11:16.436
The challenge is that many of those jobs

0:11:16.460,0:11:17.756
are not good jobs,

0:11:17.780,0:11:20.876
and many citizens[br]cannot qualify for the good jobs

0:11:20.900,0:11:22.100
that are being created.

0:11:22.740,0:11:26.236
Employment growth in the United States[br]and in much of the developed world

0:11:26.260,0:11:27.716
looks something like a barbell

0:11:27.740,0:11:31.116
with increasing poundage[br]on either end of the bar.

0:11:31.140,0:11:32.356
On the one hand,

0:11:32.380,0:11:35.196
you have high-education, high-wage jobs

0:11:35.220,0:11:38.796
like doctors and nurses,[br]programmers and engineers,

0:11:38.820,0:11:40.556
marketing and sales managers.

0:11:40.580,0:11:43.596
Employment is robust in these jobs,[br]employment growth.

0:11:43.620,0:11:47.636
Similarly, employment growth[br]is robust in many low-skill,

0:11:47.660,0:11:50.716
low-education jobs like food service,

0:11:50.740,0:11:52.996
cleaning, security,

0:11:53.020,0:11:54.260
home health aids.

0:11:54.980,0:11:58.076
Simultaneously, employment is shrinking

0:11:58.100,0:12:02.156
in many middle-education,[br]middle-wage, middle-class jobs,

0:12:02.180,0:12:05.996
like blue-collar production[br]and operative positions

0:12:06.020,0:12:08.996
and white-collar[br]clerical and sales positions.

0:12:09.020,0:12:11.276
The reasons behind this contracting middle

0:12:11.300,0:12:12.516
are not mysterious.

0:12:12.540,0:12:14.516
Many of those middle-skill jobs

0:12:14.540,0:12:17.036
use well-understood rules and procedures

0:12:17.060,0:12:20.156
that can increasingly[br]be codified in software

0:12:20.180,0:12:22.540
and executed by computers.

0:12:23.100,0:12:26.476
The challenge that[br]this phenomenon creates,

0:12:26.500,0:12:29.036
what economists call[br]employment polarization,

0:12:29.060,0:12:31.676
is that it knocks out rungs[br]in the economic ladder,

0:12:31.700,0:12:33.516
shrinks the size of the middle class

0:12:33.540,0:12:36.676
and threatens to make us[br]a more stratified society.

0:12:36.700,0:12:40.756
On the one hand, a set of highly paid,[br]highly educated professionals

0:12:40.780,0:12:42.196
doing interesting work,

0:12:42.220,0:12:45.636
on the other, a large number[br]of citizens in low-paid jobs

0:12:45.660,0:12:51.316
whose primary responsibility is to see[br]to the comfort and health of the affluent.

0:12:51.340,0:12:53.676
That is not my vision of progress,

0:12:53.700,0:12:55.580
and I doubt that it is yours.

0:12:56.340,0:12:58.356
But here is some encouraging news.

0:12:58.380,0:13:03.236
We have faced equally momentous[br]economic transformations in the past,

0:13:03.260,0:13:05.956
and we have come[br]through them successfully.

0:13:05.980,0:13:10.916
In the late 1800s and early 1900s,

0:13:10.940,0:13:15.476
when automation was eliminating[br]vast numbers of agricultural jobs --

0:13:15.500,0:13:17.836
remember that tractor? --

0:13:17.860,0:13:20.556
the farm states faced a threat[br]of mass unemployment,

0:13:20.580,0:13:24.396
a generation of youth[br]no longer needed on the farm

0:13:24.420,0:13:26.180
but not prepared for industry.

0:13:26.980,0:13:28.556
Rising to this challenge,

0:13:28.580,0:13:30.076
they took the radical step

0:13:30.100,0:13:32.916
of requiring that[br]their entire youth population

0:13:32.940,0:13:35.796
remain in school[br]and continue their education

0:13:35.820,0:13:37.940
to the ripe old age of 16.

0:13:38.500,0:13:40.476
This was called the high school movement,

0:13:40.500,0:13:43.316
and it was a radically[br]expensive thing to do.

0:13:43.340,0:13:45.596
Not only did they have[br]to invest in the schools,

0:13:45.620,0:13:48.316
but those kids couldn't work[br]at their jobs.

0:13:48.340,0:13:51.636
It also turned out to be[br]one of the best investments

0:13:51.660,0:13:53.876
the US made in the 20th century.

0:13:53.900,0:13:56.236
It gave us the most skilled,[br]the most flexible

0:13:56.260,0:13:58.956
and the most productive[br]workforce in the world.

0:13:58.980,0:14:03.516
To see how well this worked,[br]imagine taking the labor force of 1899

0:14:03.540,0:14:05.756
and bringing them into the present.

0:14:05.780,0:14:08.716
Despite their strong backs[br]and good characters,

0:14:08.740,0:14:12.516
many of them would lack[br]the basic literacy and numeracy skills

0:14:12.540,0:14:15.476
to do all but the most mundane jobs.

0:14:15.500,0:14:17.740
Many of them would be unemployable.

0:14:18.740,0:14:22.476
What this example highlights[br]is the primacy of our institutions,

0:14:22.500,0:14:24.276
most especially our schools,

0:14:24.300,0:14:26.836
in allowing us to reap the harvest

0:14:26.860,0:14:29.156
of our technological prosperity.

0:14:29.180,0:14:31.596
It's foolish to say[br]there's nothing to worry about.

0:14:31.620,0:14:33.820
Clearly we can get this wrong.

0:14:34.540,0:14:38.036
If the US had not invested[br]in its schools and in its skills

0:14:38.060,0:14:40.316
a century ago with[br]the high school movement,

0:14:40.340,0:14:41.996
we would be a less prosperous,

0:14:42.020,0:14:45.636
a less mobile and probably[br]a lot less happy society.

0:14:45.660,0:14:48.396
But it's equally foolish[br]to say that our fates are sealed.

0:14:48.420,0:14:50.116
That's not decided by the machines.

0:14:50.140,0:14:51.876
It's not even decided by the market.

0:14:51.900,0:14:54.540
It's decided by us[br]and by our institutions.

0:14:55.260,0:14:57.836
Now, I started this talk with a paradox.

0:14:57.860,0:15:00.516
Our machines increasingly[br]do our work for us.

0:15:00.540,0:15:02.796
Why doesn't that make[br]our labor superfluous,

0:15:02.820,0:15:04.036
our skills redundant?

0:15:04.060,0:15:07.476
Isn't it obvious that the road[br]to our economic and social hell

0:15:07.500,0:15:09.700
is paved with our own great inventions?

0:15:10.940,0:15:15.116
History has repeatedly offered[br]an answer to that paradox.

0:15:15.140,0:15:18.756
The first part of the answer[br]is that technology magnifies our leverage,

0:15:18.780,0:15:21.396
increases the importance, the added value

0:15:21.420,0:15:24.956
of our expertise,[br]our judgment and our creativity.

0:15:24.980,0:15:26.180
That's the O-ring.

0:15:26.780,0:15:29.516
The second part of the answer[br]is our endless inventiveness

0:15:29.540,0:15:30.996
and bottomless desires

0:15:31.020,0:15:33.356
means that we never get enough,[br]never get enough.

0:15:33.380,0:15:35.540
There's always new work to do.

0:15:36.860,0:15:40.196
Adjusting to the rapid pace[br]of technological change

0:15:40.220,0:15:41.676
creates real challenges,

0:15:41.700,0:15:44.676
seen most clearly[br]in our polarized labor market

0:15:44.700,0:15:47.220
and the threat that it poses[br]to economic mobility.

0:15:48.220,0:15:50.660
Rising to this challenge is not automatic.

0:15:51.300,0:15:52.796
It's not costless.

0:15:52.820,0:15:54.236
It's not easy.

0:15:54.260,0:15:55.460
But it is feasible.

0:15:56.020,0:15:57.836
And here is some encouraging news.

0:15:57.860,0:15:59.996
Because of our amazing productivity,

0:16:00.020,0:16:01.276
we're rich.

0:16:01.300,0:16:04.436
Of course we can afford[br]to invest in ourselves and in our children

0:16:04.460,0:16:07.796
as America did a hundred years ago[br]with the high school movement.

0:16:07.820,0:16:10.100
Arguably, we can't afford not to.

0:16:11.020,0:16:12.796
Now, you may be thinking,

0:16:12.820,0:16:15.676
Professor Autor has told us[br]a heartwarming tale

0:16:15.700,0:16:17.476
about the distant past,

0:16:17.500,0:16:18.876
the recent past,

0:16:18.900,0:16:22.196
maybe the present,[br]but probably not the future.

0:16:22.220,0:16:26.156
Because everybody knows[br]that this time is different.

0:16:26.180,0:16:28.996
Right? Is this time different?

0:16:29.020,0:16:30.916
Of course this time is different.

0:16:30.940,0:16:32.636
Every time is different.

0:16:32.660,0:16:36.276
On numerous occasions[br]in the last 200 years,

0:16:36.300,0:16:39.076
scholars and activists[br]have raised the alarm

0:16:39.100,0:16:42.636
that we are running out of work[br]and making ourselves obsolete:

0:16:42.660,0:16:47.276
for example, the Luddites[br]in the early 1800s;

0:16:47.300,0:16:50.236
US Secretary of Labor James Davis

0:16:50.260,0:16:52.676
in the mid-1920s;

0:16:52.700,0:16:57.876
Nobel Prize-winning economist[br]Wassily Leontief in 1982;

0:16:57.900,0:17:01.156
and of course, many scholars,

0:17:01.180,0:17:03.316
pundits, technologists

0:17:03.340,0:17:05.180
and media figures today.

0:17:06.500,0:17:09.819
These predictions strike me as arrogant.

0:17:10.700,0:17:13.396
These self-proclaimed oracles[br]are in effect saying,

0:17:13.420,0:17:16.836
"If I can't think of what people[br]will do for work in the future,

0:17:16.859,0:17:19.756
then you, me and our kids

0:17:19.780,0:17:21.494
aren't going to think of it either."

0:17:22.660,0:17:24.594
I don't have the guts

0:17:24.619,0:17:27.796
to take that bet against human ingenuity.

0:17:27.819,0:17:30.796
Look, I can't tell you[br]what people are going to do for work

0:17:30.820,0:17:32.716
a hundred years from now.

0:17:32.739,0:17:35.340
But the future doesn't hinge[br]on my imagination.

0:17:36.180,0:17:39.956
If I were a farmer in Iowa[br]in the year 1900,

0:17:39.979,0:17:43.516
and an economist from the 21st century[br]teleported down to my field

0:17:43.540,0:17:46.060
and said, "Hey, guess what, farmer Autor,

0:17:46.900,0:17:48.436
in the next hundred years,

0:17:48.460,0:17:52.236
agricultural employment is going to fall[br]from 40 percent of all jobs

0:17:52.260,0:17:53.476
to two percent

0:17:53.500,0:17:55.500
purely due to rising productivity.

0:17:56.300,0:17:59.460
What do you think the other[br]38 percent of workers are going to do?"

0:18:00.300,0:18:03.116
I would not have said, "Oh, we got this.

0:18:03.140,0:18:05.996
We'll do app development,[br]radiological medicine,

0:18:06.020,0:18:08.996
yoga instruction, Bitmoji."

0:18:09.020,0:18:10.556
(Laughter)

0:18:10.580,0:18:11.866
I wouldn't have had a clue.

0:18:12.740,0:18:15.236
But I hope I would have had[br]the wisdom to say,

0:18:15.260,0:18:19.276
"Wow, a 95 percent reduction[br]in farm employment

0:18:19.300,0:18:21.436
with no shortage of food.

0:18:21.460,0:18:23.876
That's an amazing amount of progress.

0:18:23.900,0:18:27.276
I hope that humanity[br]finds something remarkable to do

0:18:27.300,0:18:29.180
with all of that prosperity."

0:18:30.020,0:18:33.100
And by and large, I would say that it has.

0:18:34.860,0:18:36.116
Thank you very much.

0:18:36.140,0:18:41.195
(Applause)