[Script Info] Title: [Events] Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text Dialogue: 0,0:00:28.63,0:00:33.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,October 16, 1993, Dialogue: 0,0:00:33.55,0:00:35.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,1:17am. Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.48,0:00:38.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The phone rang at my parents' home. Dialogue: 0,0:00:38.56,0:00:40.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I answered on the second ring. Dialogue: 0,0:00:40.66,0:00:42.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I pretty much knew who was calling. Dialogue: 0,0:00:43.32,0:00:46.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The voice on the other end\Nspoke for maybe 10 seconds. Dialogue: 0,0:00:47.99,0:00:49.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My reply was even shorter. Dialogue: 0,0:00:50.76,0:00:52.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Do not resuscitate." Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.09,0:00:55.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was 18 years old when I lost my father. Dialogue: 0,0:00:59.70,0:01:01.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Several years later, Dialogue: 0,0:01:01.40,0:01:03.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was reading the book by Ernest Becker, Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.68,0:01:05.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"The Denial of Death." Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.05,0:01:07.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He won the Pulitzer prize for it in 1972. Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.93,0:01:10.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I'll paraphrase an entire book\Nin three sentences. Dialogue: 0,0:01:11.33,0:01:14.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Man is the only sentient species, Dialogue: 0,0:01:14.43,0:01:17.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who, at a very early point in his life, Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.70,0:01:20.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,knows that he will cease to exist, Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.04,0:01:26.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that he does everything he can\Nto run, shield and hide himself Dialogue: 0,0:01:26.70,0:01:28.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from that inevitable truth. Dialogue: 0,0:01:30.32,0:01:33.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, now you know\Nhow I became a futurist. Dialogue: 0,0:01:34.81,0:01:35.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That was my running. Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.62,0:01:40.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I've been "futuring,"\Nwhich is a term I made up -- Dialogue: 0,0:01:41.02,0:01:42.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter) Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.30,0:01:43.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about three seconds ago. Dialogue: 0,0:01:43.54,0:01:46.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I've been futuring for about 20 years, Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.38,0:01:49.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and when I first started,\NI would sit down with people, Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.74,0:01:52.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and say, "Hey,\Nlet's talk 10, 20 years out." Dialogue: 0,0:01:52.66,0:01:54.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they'd say, "Great." Dialogue: 0,0:01:54.76,0:01:57.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I've been seeing that time horizon Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.28,0:01:59.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,get shorter and shorter Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.36,0:02:00.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and shorter, Dialogue: 0,0:02:01.00,0:02:04.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so much so that I met\Nwith a CEO two months ago Dialogue: 0,0:02:04.40,0:02:06.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I said -- we started\Nour initial conversation. Dialogue: 0,0:02:06.80,0:02:10.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He goes, "I love what you do.\NI want to talk about the next six months." Dialogue: 0,0:02:10.56,0:02:12.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter) Dialogue: 0,0:02:13.16,0:02:16.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have a lot of problems\Nthat we are facing. Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.32,0:02:19.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These are civilizational-scale problems. Dialogue: 0,0:02:20.84,0:02:22.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The issue though is, Dialogue: 0,0:02:22.92,0:02:24.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can't solve them Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.64,0:02:27.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,using the mental models\Nthat we use right now Dialogue: 0,0:02:27.24,0:02:28.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to try and solve these problems. Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.84,0:02:31.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yes, a lot of great\Ntechnical work is being done, Dialogue: 0,0:02:31.82,0:02:37.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but there is a problem that\Nwe need to solve for a priori, before, Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.22,0:02:40.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if we want to really\Nmove the needle on those big problems. Dialogue: 0,0:02:41.88,0:02:43.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Short-termism." Dialogue: 0,0:02:43.64,0:02:46.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Right? There's no marches.\NThere's no bracelets. Dialogue: 0,0:02:46.12,0:02:49.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's no petitions that you can sign\Nto be against short-termism. Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.00,0:02:53.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I tried to put one up, and no one signed. Dialogue: 0,0:02:53.84,0:02:55.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was weird. Dialogue: 0,0:02:57.00,0:03:00.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it prevents us from doing so much. Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.16,0:03:02.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And, by the way, this is on policy, Dialogue: 0,0:03:02.60,0:03:05.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this is at home,\Nthis is on the major issues. Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.48,0:03:08.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Short-termism, for many reasons, Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.20,0:03:10.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has pervaded every\Nnook and cranny of our reality, Dialogue: 0,0:03:10.90,0:03:13.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,yet it's something\Nthat we don't actually talk about, Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.47,0:03:15.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it prevents us from doing so much. Dialogue: 0,0:03:16.92,0:03:18.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I just want you to take a second Dialogue: 0,0:03:18.52,0:03:22.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and just think about an issue\Nthat you're thinking, working on. Dialogue: 0,0:03:22.36,0:03:24.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It could be personal, it could be at work Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.36,0:03:26.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or it could be\Nmove-the-needle world stuff, Dialogue: 0,0:03:26.44,0:03:28.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and think about\Nhow far out you tend to think Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.80,0:03:31.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about the solution set for that. Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.62,0:03:39.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because short-termism prevents the CEO Dialogue: 0,0:03:39.06,0:03:41.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from buying really\Nexpensive safety equipment. Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.62,0:03:44.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It'll hurt the bottom line. Dialogue: 0,0:03:44.62,0:03:46.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we get the Deepwater Horizon. Dialogue: 0,0:03:48.50,0:03:51.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Short-termism prevents teachers Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.39,0:03:54.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from spending quality\None-on-one time with their students. Dialogue: 0,0:03:54.82,0:03:56.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So right now in America, Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.98,0:03:59.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a high school student\Ndrops out every 26 seconds. Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.76,0:04:04.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Short-termism prevents Congress -- Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.52,0:04:07.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sorry if there's anyone\Nin here from Congress -- Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.16,0:04:08.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter) Dialogue: 0,0:04:08.72,0:04:10.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or not really that sorry -- Dialogue: 0,0:04:10.80,0:04:13.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter) Dialogue: 0,0:04:13.04,0:04:16.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from putting money\Ninto a real infrastructure bill. Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.24,0:04:18.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what we get\Nis the I-35W bridge collapse Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.88,0:04:20.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over the Mississippi a few years ago, Dialogue: 0,0:04:20.72,0:04:21.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,13 killed. Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.79,0:04:26.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It wasn't always like this.\NWe did the Panama Canal. Dialogue: 0,0:04:29.13,0:04:31.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We pretty much\Nhave eradicated global polio. Dialogue: 0,0:04:31.41,0:04:34.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We did the transcontinental railroad,\Nthe Marshall Plan. Dialogue: 0,0:04:35.05,0:04:38.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's not just big, physical\Ninfrastructure problems and issues. Dialogue: 0,0:04:39.41,0:04:41.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Women's suffrage, the right to vote. Dialogue: 0,0:04:41.33,0:04:44.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But in our short-termist time, Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.13,0:04:46.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where everything seems to happen right now Dialogue: 0,0:04:46.65,0:04:51.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we can only think out\Npast the next tweet or timeline post, Dialogue: 0,0:04:51.17,0:04:53.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we get hyper-reactionary. Dialogue: 0,0:04:53.21,0:04:54.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what do we do? Dialogue: 0,0:04:56.90,0:05:00.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We take people who are fleeing\Ntheir war-torn country, Dialogue: 0,0:05:00.18,0:05:01.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we go after them. Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.46,0:05:05.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We take low-level drug offenders,\Nand we put them away for life. Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.10,0:05:07.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then we build McMansions\Nwithout even thinking Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.50,0:05:10.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about how people are going\Nto get between them and their job. Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.39,0:05:11.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a quick buck. Dialogue: 0,0:05:12.78,0:05:15.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, the reality is,\Nfor a lot of these problems, Dialogue: 0,0:05:15.14,0:05:17.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there are some technical fixes, Dialogue: 0,0:05:17.94,0:05:19.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a lot of them. Dialogue: 0,0:05:19.18,0:05:22.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I call these technical fixes\Nsandbag strategies. Dialogue: 0,0:05:22.74,0:05:24.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So you know there's a storm coming, Dialogue: 0,0:05:24.46,0:05:27.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the levee is broken,\Nno one's put any money into it, Dialogue: 0,0:05:27.22,0:05:29.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you surround your home with sandbags. Dialogue: 0,0:05:29.06,0:05:30.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And guess what? It works. Dialogue: 0,0:05:32.62,0:05:34.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Storm goes away,\Nthe water level goes down, Dialogue: 0,0:05:34.66,0:05:36.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you get rid of the sandbags, Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.06,0:05:38.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you do this storm\Nafter storm after storm. Dialogue: 0,0:05:39.94,0:05:41.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And here's the insidious thing. Dialogue: 0,0:05:42.14,0:05:44.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A sandbag strategy Dialogue: 0,0:05:44.06,0:05:45.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can get you reelected. Dialogue: 0,0:05:46.38,0:05:47.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A sandbag strategy Dialogue: 0,0:05:47.78,0:05:49.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can help you make your quarterly numbers. Dialogue: 0,0:05:49.98,0:05:52.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, if we want to move forward Dialogue: 0,0:05:52.98,0:05:55.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into a different future\Nthan the one we have right now, Dialogue: 0,0:05:55.78,0:05:57.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because I don't think we've hit -- Dialogue: 0,0:05:57.86,0:05:59.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,2016 is not peak civilization. Dialogue: 0,0:05:59.86,0:06:01.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter) Dialogue: 0,0:06:01.22,0:06:02.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's some more we can do. Dialogue: 0,0:06:03.56,0:06:06.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For the issue of short-termism, yeah,\Nthere's a lot of technical fixes. Dialogue: 0,0:06:06.96,0:06:09.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I could spend the next four hours\Ngoing down a list Dialogue: 0,0:06:09.74,0:06:13.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of tax policy, insurance, Dialogue: 0,0:06:13.04,0:06:16.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just a litany of things\Nthat we could do to tackle short-termism. Dialogue: 0,0:06:16.70,0:06:21.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But my argument is that unless we shift\Nour mental models and our mental maps Dialogue: 0,0:06:21.34,0:06:23.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on how we think about the short, Dialogue: 0,0:06:23.70,0:06:25.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's not going to happen. Dialogue: 0,0:06:25.42,0:06:28.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what I've developed\Nis something called "longpath," Dialogue: 0,0:06:28.42,0:06:30.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's a practice. Dialogue: 0,0:06:30.18,0:06:34.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And longpath isn't\Na kind of one-and-done exercise. Dialogue: 0,0:06:34.14,0:06:36.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm sure everyone here\Nat some point has done an off-site Dialogue: 0,0:06:36.86,0:06:38.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with a lot of Post-It notes\Nand whiteboards, Dialogue: 0,0:06:38.98,0:06:41.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you do -- Dialogue: 0,0:06:41.90,0:06:44.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,no offense to the consultants\Nin here who do that -- Dialogue: 0,0:06:44.38,0:06:45.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you do a long-term plan, Dialogue: 0,0:06:46.02,0:06:48.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then two weeks later,\Neveryone forgets about it. Dialogue: 0,0:06:50.06,0:06:53.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Right? Or a week later.\NIf you're lucky, three months. Dialogue: 0,0:06:53.26,0:06:56.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a practice because\Nit's not necessarily a thing that you do. Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.86,0:07:00.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a process where you have\Nto revisit different ways of thinking Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.66,0:07:03.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for every major decision\Nthat you're working on. Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.10,0:07:05.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I want to go through\Nthose three ways of thinking. Dialogue: 0,0:07:06.78,0:07:07.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the first; Dialogue: 0,0:07:07.97,0:07:10.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm going to say it slow,\Nso I can say it properly. Dialogue: 0,0:07:10.76,0:07:12.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Trans-generational thinking. Dialogue: 0,0:07:14.00,0:07:16.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I love the philosophers: Dialogue: 0,0:07:16.24,0:07:18.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Plato, Socrates, Habermas, Heidegger. Dialogue: 0,0:07:18.08,0:07:19.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was raised on them. Dialogue: 0,0:07:20.68,0:07:22.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But they all did one thing Dialogue: 0,0:07:22.64,0:07:24.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that didn't actually seem like a big deal Dialogue: 0,0:07:24.64,0:07:26.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,until I really started\Nkind of looking into this. Dialogue: 0,0:07:27.00,0:07:28.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they all took, Dialogue: 0,0:07:28.84,0:07:31.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as a unit of measure\Nfor their entire reality Dialogue: 0,0:07:31.76,0:07:33.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of what it meant to be virtuous and good, Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.15,0:07:36.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the single lifespan, Dialogue: 0,0:07:37.36,0:07:38.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from birth to death. Dialogue: 0,0:07:39.87,0:07:41.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But here's a problem with these issues: Dialogue: 0,0:07:41.95,0:07:43.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they stack up on top of us, Dialogue: 0,0:07:43.39,0:07:46.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the only way we know\Nhow to do something good in the world Dialogue: 0,0:07:46.55,0:07:48.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is if we do it between\Nour birth and our death. Dialogue: 0,0:07:48.79,0:07:50.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's what we're programmed to do. Dialogue: 0,0:07:50.51,0:07:52.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you go to the self-help section\Nin any bookstore, Dialogue: 0,0:07:52.99,0:07:54.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's all about you. Dialogue: 0,0:07:55.63,0:07:57.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Which is great, Dialogue: 0,0:07:57.51,0:08:00.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,unless you're dealing\Nwith some of these major issues. Dialogue: 0,0:08:02.19,0:08:04.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so with transgenerational thinking, Dialogue: 0,0:08:05.51,0:08:08.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is really kind of\Ntransgenerational ethics, Dialogue: 0,0:08:08.19,0:08:11.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you're able to expand\Nhow you think about these problems, Dialogue: 0,0:08:11.83,0:08:14.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what is your role\Nin helping to solve them. Dialogue: 0,0:08:15.95,0:08:21.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This isn't something that just has to be\Ndone at the Security Council chamber. Dialogue: 0,0:08:21.81,0:08:25.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's something that you can do\Nin a very kind of personal way. Dialogue: 0,0:08:25.09,0:08:29.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So every once in a while, if I'm lucky,\Nmy wife and I like to go out to dinner, Dialogue: 0,0:08:29.53,0:08:32.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we have three children\Nunder the age of seven. Dialogue: 0,0:08:32.81,0:08:35.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So you can imagine\Nit's a very peaceful, quiet meal. Dialogue: 0,0:08:35.26,0:08:36.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter) Dialogue: 0,0:08:36.49,0:08:42.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we sit down and literally\Nall I want to do is just eat and chill, Dialogue: 0,0:08:42.09,0:08:44.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and my kids have a completely\Nand totally different idea Dialogue: 0,0:08:44.77,0:08:46.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of what we're going to be doing. Dialogue: 0,0:08:46.37,0:08:48.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so my first idea Dialogue: 0,0:08:48.73,0:08:50.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is my sandbag strategy, right? Dialogue: 0,0:08:50.65,0:08:52.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's to go into my pocket\Nand take out the iPhone Dialogue: 0,0:08:53.01,0:08:54.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and give them "Frozen" Dialogue: 0,0:08:54.49,0:08:57.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or some other bestselling game thing. Dialogue: 0,0:08:58.57,0:09:02.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then I stop Dialogue: 0,0:09:02.29,0:09:06.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I have to kind of put on\Nthis transgenerational thinking cap. Dialogue: 0,0:09:06.89,0:09:09.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don't do this in the restaurant,\Nbecause it would be bizarre, Dialogue: 0,0:09:09.89,0:09:11.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but I have to -- Dialogue: 0,0:09:11.21,0:09:13.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I did it once, and that's how\NI learned it was bizarre. Dialogue: 0,0:09:13.85,0:09:14.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter) Dialogue: 0,0:09:14.89,0:09:19.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And you have to kind of think,\N"OK, I can do this." Dialogue: 0,0:09:19.77,0:09:21.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But what is this teaching them? Dialogue: 0,0:09:24.61,0:09:27.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what does it mean\Nif I actually bring some paper Dialogue: 0,0:09:27.25,0:09:28.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or engage with them in conversation? Dialogue: 0,0:09:29.01,0:09:31.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's hard, and I'm making this\Nvery personal. Dialogue: 0,0:09:31.37,0:09:32.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's actually more traumatic Dialogue: 0,0:09:32.77,0:09:35.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than some of the big issues\Nthat I work on in the world -- Dialogue: 0,0:09:35.53,0:09:37.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,entertaining my kids at dinner. Dialogue: 0,0:09:37.37,0:09:40.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But what it does is it connects them\Nhere in the present with me, Dialogue: 0,0:09:40.53,0:09:41.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it also -- Dialogue: 0,0:09:41.81,0:09:45.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and this is the crux\Nof transgenerational thinking ethics -- Dialogue: 0,0:09:45.29,0:09:48.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it sets them up to how they're\Ngoing to interact with their kids Dialogue: 0,0:09:48.61,0:09:50.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and their kids and their kids. Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.37,0:09:55.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Second, futures thinking. Dialogue: 0,0:09:56.52,0:10:00.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When we think about the future -- Dialogue: 0,0:10:00.51,0:10:01.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Don't close your eyes, Dialogue: 0,0:10:01.68,0:10:03.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,everyone always says that and no one does. Dialogue: 0,0:10:03.81,0:10:05.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Pretend to close your eyes. Dialogue: 0,0:10:05.63,0:10:06.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter) Dialogue: 0,0:10:06.75,0:10:08.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Think 10, 15 years out, Dialogue: 0,0:10:09.93,0:10:11.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,give me a vision of what the future is. Dialogue: 0,0:10:13.01,0:10:15.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You don't have to give it to me,\Nbut think in your head. Dialogue: 0,0:10:15.69,0:10:17.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what you're probably going to see Dialogue: 0,0:10:17.85,0:10:19.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the dominant cultural lens Dialogue: 0,0:10:19.69,0:10:22.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that dominates our thinking\Nabout the future right now: Dialogue: 0,0:10:22.77,0:10:23.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,technology. Dialogue: 0,0:10:24.85,0:10:26.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So when we think about the problems, Dialogue: 0,0:10:26.61,0:10:28.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we always put it through\Na technological lens, Dialogue: 0,0:10:28.81,0:10:32.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a tech-centric, a techno-utopia,\Nand there's nothing wrong with that, Dialogue: 0,0:10:32.09,0:10:35.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it's something that we have to\Nreally think deeply about Dialogue: 0,0:10:35.41,0:10:38.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if we're going to move\Non these major issues, Dialogue: 0,0:10:38.29,0:10:40.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it wasn't always like this. Right? Dialogue: 0,0:10:40.37,0:10:43.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The ancients had their way of thinking Dialogue: 0,0:10:43.85,0:10:45.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about what the future was. Dialogue: 0,0:10:46.65,0:10:51.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Church definitely had their idea\Nof what the future could be, Dialogue: 0,0:10:51.57,0:10:54.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you could actually pay your way\Ninto that future. Right? Dialogue: 0,0:10:54.53,0:10:56.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And luckily for humanity, Dialogue: 0,0:10:57.49,0:10:59.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we got the scientific revolution. Dialogue: 0,0:11:01.65,0:11:03.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,From there, we got the technology, Dialogue: 0,0:11:03.33,0:11:04.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but what has happened -- Dialogue: 0,0:11:05.01,0:11:07.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And by the way, this is not a critique. Dialogue: 0,0:11:08.41,0:11:10.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I love technology. Dialogue: 0,0:11:10.81,0:11:12.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Everything in my house talks back to me, Dialogue: 0,0:11:12.77,0:11:14.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from my children\Nto my speakers to everything. Dialogue: 0,0:11:14.97,0:11:17.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter) Dialogue: 0,0:11:17.81,0:11:23.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But we've abdicated the future\Nfrom the high priests in Rome Dialogue: 0,0:11:23.53,0:11:26.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the high priests of Silicon Valley. Dialogue: 0,0:11:27.97,0:11:31.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So when we think, well,\Nhow are we going to deal with climate Dialogue: 0,0:11:31.33,0:11:32.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or with poverty or homelessness, Dialogue: 0,0:11:32.93,0:11:36.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,our first reaction is to think about it\Nthrough a technology lens. Dialogue: 0,0:11:37.17,0:11:41.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And look, I'm not advocating\Nthat we go to this guy. Dialogue: 0,0:11:41.81,0:11:43.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I love Joel, don't get me wrong, Dialogue: 0,0:11:44.49,0:11:46.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but I'm not saying we go to Joel. Dialogue: 0,0:11:46.17,0:11:47.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What I'm saying is we have to rethink Dialogue: 0,0:11:48.01,0:11:52.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,our base assumption about\Nonly looking at the future in one way, Dialogue: 0,0:11:52.81,0:11:54.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,only looking at it\Nthrough the dominant lens. Dialogue: 0,0:11:54.97,0:11:57.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because our problems\Nare so big and so vast Dialogue: 0,0:11:57.17,0:11:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we need to open ourselves up. Dialogue: 0,0:12:00.01,0:12:03.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that's why I do everything in my power\Nnot to talk about the future. Dialogue: 0,0:12:04.41,0:12:06.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I talk about futures. Dialogue: 0,0:12:06.61,0:12:08.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It opens the conversation again. Dialogue: 0,0:12:08.37,0:12:10.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So when you're sitting and thinking Dialogue: 0,0:12:10.85,0:12:14.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about how do we move forward\Non this major issue -- Dialogue: 0,0:12:14.05,0:12:15.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it could be at home, Dialogue: 0,0:12:15.61,0:12:17.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it could be at work, Dialogue: 0,0:12:17.61,0:12:20.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it could be again on the global stage -- Dialogue: 0,0:12:20.49,0:12:24.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,don't cut yourself off from thinking\Nabout something beyond technology as a fix Dialogue: 0,0:12:24.93,0:12:28.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because we're more concerned\Nabout technological evolution right now Dialogue: 0,0:12:28.49,0:12:30.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than we are about moral evolution. Dialogue: 0,0:12:30.65,0:12:32.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And unless we fix for that, Dialogue: 0,0:12:32.69,0:12:35.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're not going to be able\Nto get out of short-termism Dialogue: 0,0:12:35.29,0:12:37.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and get to where we want to be. Dialogue: 0,0:12:37.13,0:12:39.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The final, telos thinking.\NThis comes from the Greek root. Dialogue: 0,0:12:40.37,0:12:42.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Ultimate aim and ultimate purpose. Dialogue: 0,0:12:42.65,0:12:45.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's really asking one question: Dialogue: 0,0:12:46.61,0:12:47.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to what end? Dialogue: 0,0:12:48.77,0:12:51.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When was the last time\Nyou asked yourself: To what end? Dialogue: 0,0:12:53.81,0:12:57.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And when you asked yourself that,\Nhow far out did you go? Dialogue: 0,0:12:58.09,0:13:01.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because long isn't long enough anymore. Dialogue: 0,0:13:02.01,0:13:03.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Three, five years doesn't cut it. Dialogue: 0,0:13:03.93,0:13:06.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's 30, 40, 50, 100 years. Dialogue: 0,0:13:07.95,0:13:13.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In Homer's epic, "The Odyssey," Dialogue: 0,0:13:13.99,0:13:17.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Odysseus had the answer to his "what end." Dialogue: 0,0:13:17.07,0:13:18.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was Ithaca. Dialogue: 0,0:13:18.83,0:13:20.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was this bold vision\Nof what he wanted -- Dialogue: 0,0:13:20.95,0:13:22.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to return to Penelope. Dialogue: 0,0:13:22.35,0:13:24.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I can tell you,\Nbecause of the work that I'm doing, Dialogue: 0,0:13:24.99,0:13:27.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but also you know it intuitively --\Nwe have lost our Ithaca. Dialogue: 0,0:13:27.87,0:13:31.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have lost our "to what end,"\Nso we stay on this hamster wheel. Dialogue: 0,0:13:31.43,0:13:33.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And yes, we're trying\Nto solve these problems, Dialogue: 0,0:13:33.63,0:13:36.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but what comes after we solve the problem? Dialogue: 0,0:13:37.11,0:13:40.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And unless you define what comes after,\Npeople aren't going to move. Dialogue: 0,0:13:41.09,0:13:44.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thomas Kuhn, who gave us\Nthe famous term "paradigm shift" -- Dialogue: 0,0:13:44.50,0:13:48.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the part about that book\Nthat isn't as famous Dialogue: 0,0:13:48.84,0:13:51.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is where he said, "People don't shift Dialogue: 0,0:13:51.08,0:13:54.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,unless they have a vision\Nof what it is they're shifting to." Dialogue: 0,0:13:54.88,0:13:58.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The frog won't leap from one lily pad\Nto the next without seeing it. Dialogue: 0,0:14:00.86,0:14:03.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And you can't tell the frog\Na one-sentence telos statement. Dialogue: 0,0:14:03.91,0:14:05.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It needs to be fully fleshed out. Dialogue: 0,0:14:05.79,0:14:08.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This was the power\Nof what Martin Luther King, Jr. did. Dialogue: 0,0:14:10.10,0:14:13.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He went through the list\Nof problems and issues, Dialogue: 0,0:14:13.48,0:14:16.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but then, he gave you\Na strong understanding Dialogue: 0,0:14:16.39,0:14:20.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of what it was; "I have a dream" --\Nwhat will come after? Dialogue: 0,0:14:20.08,0:14:22.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This isn't just about business, Dialogue: 0,0:14:22.41,0:14:25.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but the businesses that do consistently,\Nwho break out of short-termism Dialogue: 0,0:14:25.77,0:14:27.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not surprisingly\Nare family-run businesses. Dialogue: 0,0:14:27.81,0:14:31.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're transgenerational. They're telos.\NThey think about the futures. Dialogue: 0,0:14:31.48,0:14:35.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this is an ad for Patek Philippe.\NThey're 175 years old, Dialogue: 0,0:14:35.20,0:14:38.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what's amazing\Nis that they literally embody Dialogue: 0,0:14:38.29,0:14:41.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this kind of longpathian sense\Nin their brand, Dialogue: 0,0:14:41.13,0:14:44.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because, by the way,\Nyou never actually own a Patek Philippe, Dialogue: 0,0:14:44.05,0:14:45.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I definitely won't -- Dialogue: 0,0:14:45.97,0:14:47.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter) Dialogue: 0,0:14:47.14,0:14:50.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,unless somebody wants to just\Nthrow 25,000 dollars on the stage. Dialogue: 0,0:14:50.17,0:14:53.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You merely look after it\Nfor the next generation. Dialogue: 0,0:14:56.59,0:14:59.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So it's important that we remember, Dialogue: 0,0:14:59.07,0:15:02.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the future, we treat it like a noun. Dialogue: 0,0:15:02.23,0:15:04.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not. It's a verb. Dialogue: 0,0:15:04.51,0:15:05.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It requires action. Dialogue: 0,0:15:05.79,0:15:07.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It requires us to push into it. Dialogue: 0,0:15:07.63,0:15:09.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not this thing that washes over us. Dialogue: 0,0:15:09.59,0:15:12.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's something that we\Nactually have total control over. Dialogue: 0,0:15:12.27,0:15:15.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But in a short-term society,\Nwe end up feeling like we don't. Dialogue: 0,0:15:15.19,0:15:16.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We feel like we're trapped. Dialogue: 0,0:15:16.55,0:15:17.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can push through that. Dialogue: 0,0:15:19.75,0:15:22.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now I'm getting more comfortable Dialogue: 0,0:15:22.89,0:15:25.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the fact that at some point Dialogue: 0,0:15:26.11,0:15:27.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the inevitable future, Dialogue: 0,0:15:28.64,0:15:29.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I will die. Dialogue: 0,0:15:30.91,0:15:35.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But because of these new ways\Nof thinking and doing, Dialogue: 0,0:15:35.03,0:15:38.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,both in the outside world\Nand also with my family at home, Dialogue: 0,0:15:38.99,0:15:42.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what I'm leaving my kids,\NI get more comfortable in that fact. Dialogue: 0,0:15:42.15,0:15:45.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's something that a lot of us\Nare really uncomfortable with, Dialogue: 0,0:15:45.31,0:15:46.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but I'm telling you, Dialogue: 0,0:15:47.51,0:15:49.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,think it through. Dialogue: 0,0:15:49.03,0:15:51.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Apply this type of thinking\Nand you can push yourself past Dialogue: 0,0:15:51.79,0:15:53.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what's inevitably\Nvery, very uncomfortable. Dialogue: 0,0:15:53.87,0:15:57.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it all begins really\Nwith yourself asking this question: Dialogue: 0,0:15:58.51,0:16:00.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What is your longpath? Dialogue: 0,0:16:01.57,0:16:04.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I ask you, when you ask yourself that Dialogue: 0,0:16:04.49,0:16:06.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,now or tonight or behind a steering wheel Dialogue: 0,0:16:06.77,0:16:10.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or in the boardroom or the situation room: Dialogue: 0,0:16:12.07,0:16:14.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,push past the longpath, Dialogue: 0,0:16:14.27,0:16:17.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,quick, oh, what's my longpath\Nthe next three years or five years? Dialogue: 0,0:16:17.59,0:16:21.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Try and push past your own life if you can Dialogue: 0,0:16:21.23,0:16:23.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it makes you do things\Na little bit bigger Dialogue: 0,0:16:23.63,0:16:25.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than you thought were possible. Dialogue: 0,0:16:26.55,0:16:29.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yes, we have huge,\Nhuge problems out there. Dialogue: 0,0:16:31.55,0:16:33.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,With this process, with this thinking, Dialogue: 0,0:16:34.87,0:16:36.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think we can make a difference. Dialogue: 0,0:16:36.87,0:16:39.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think you can make a difference, Dialogue: 0,0:16:39.55,0:16:41.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I believe in you guys. Dialogue: 0,0:16:41.19,0:16:42.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you. Dialogue: 0,0:16:42.43,0:16:45.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)