WEBVTT 00:00:04.780 --> 00:00:10.400 We live in a world of relentless change. 00:00:11.334 --> 00:00:15.155 Huge migrations of people to new mega cities 00:00:15.158 --> 00:00:18.727 filling soaring skyscrapers 00:00:18.727 --> 00:00:21.436 and vast slums. 00:00:21.440 --> 00:00:25.760 Ravenous appetites for fuel and food, 00:00:25.770 --> 00:00:28.780 unpredictable climate change 00:00:29.000 --> 00:00:35.087 and all this in a world where the population is still growing. 00:00:36.460 --> 00:00:38.277 Should we be worried? 00:00:38.280 --> 00:00:41.516 Should we be scared? 00:00:42.660 --> 00:00:46.100 How to make sense of it all? 00:00:52.501 --> 00:00:59.000 7 billion people now live on this planet of ours. Isn't it beautiful? 00:00:59.010 --> 00:01:03.500 But when some people think about the world and its future, they panic! 00:01:03.510 --> 00:01:06.267 Others prefer not to think about it all. 00:01:06.280 --> 00:01:09.800 But tonight I’m going to show you how things really are. 00:01:09.971 --> 00:01:13.000 My name is Hans Rosling. I’m a statistician at…. 00:01:13.010 --> 00:01:15.036 NO, NO, NO, NO! Don’t switch off! 00:01:15.040 --> 00:01:19.509 Because with the latest data from all countries I’m going to show you the world in a new way. 00:01:19.510 --> 00:01:22.654 I’m going to tell you how world population is changing 00:01:22.656 --> 00:01:27.622 and what today’s data tell us about how the future of the world will be. 00:01:27.630 --> 00:01:32.240 We undeniably face huge challenges 00:01:32.240 --> 00:01:36.693 but the good news is that the future may not be quite as gloomy 00:01:36.800 --> 00:01:42.400 and that mankind is already doing better than many of you think! 00:01:44.000 --> 00:01:45.400 Don't Panic! 00:01:45.500 --> 00:01:47.300 The Truth About Population 00:01:47.400 --> 00:01:49.740 with professor Hans Rosling 00:01:51.495 --> 00:01:53.350 Babies. 00:01:53.355 --> 00:01:55.170 Each one a blessing. 00:01:55.300 --> 00:01:59.000 But many people think population growth is out of control. 00:01:59.500 --> 00:02:02.400 Some even talk of a population bomb! 00:02:03.450 --> 00:02:05.800 Are they right? 00:02:08.000 --> 00:02:11.810 So where are we with population today? And how did we get here? 00:02:11.900 --> 00:02:16.279 I am going to tell you a history about everyone who ever lived! 00:02:16.345 --> 00:02:20.200 Well, at least during the last some 1000 years. 00:02:20.250 --> 00:02:21.700 Here we go. 00:02:21.800 --> 00:02:25.122 I give you 2 axes. 00:02:25.123 --> 00:02:33.194 This is time in years, and this one here is world population in billions. 00:02:33.240 --> 00:02:41.404 In the year 10,000 BC, when the first people where becoming farmers, then the archeologists estimate 00:02:41.420 --> 00:02:45.468 that the world population was only 10 million. 00:02:45.468 --> 00:02:49.488 Imagine: 10 million! That’s is like Sweden today! 00:02:49.490 --> 00:02:53.000 A world of only Swedes! 00:02:53.414 --> 00:03:01.385 But then, as the millennia passed by, more farmers, food and people, and great empires could emerge. 00:03:01.390 --> 00:03:06.110 Egypt, China, India, and finally Europe. 00:03:06.120 --> 00:03:09.672 And population continued to grow, but very slowly. 00:03:09.682 --> 00:03:13.772 And I stop here, at the year 1800. 00:03:13.782 --> 00:03:19.972 Because it was in 1800 that the world population became 1 billion. 00:03:19.982 --> 00:03:28.693 Imagine… All that time, the population growth was just a tiny fraction of a percent, through thousands of years. 00:03:28.699 --> 00:03:35.460 But here in 1800, with the industrial revolution, everything changed and population started to grow faster. 00:03:35.504 --> 00:03:39.308 In little more than 100 years, it reached 2 billions. 00:03:39.315 --> 00:03:43.273 And then, when I was in school, it was 3 billion. 00:03:43.283 --> 00:03:49.658 And many people said: ‘The planet can not support more people.’ Even experts said that. 00:03:49.685 --> 00:03:52.128 But what happened was this... 00:03:52.133 --> 00:03:58.609 We became 4 billion… 5 billion… 6 billion… 7 billion! 00:03:58.620 --> 00:04:05.380 Imagine… More than half of the world population have been added during my lifetime. 00:04:05.407 --> 00:04:08.992 And the number is still rising. 00:04:10.414 --> 00:04:15.595 Most of the population growth, in recent years, has been in Asian countries. 00:04:15.619 --> 00:04:21.438 Like here, in Bangladesh, where the population has tripled during my lifetime. 00:04:21.466 --> 00:04:27.504 From 50 million to more than 150 million. 00:04:28.288 --> 00:04:32.780 It is now one of the most densely populated countries in the world. 00:04:32.790 --> 00:04:40.031 Some 15 million already live in the very crowded capital Dhaka. 00:04:40.100 --> 00:04:48.470 People here, whether in the city or the countryside, are intensely concerned about the size of families. 00:04:49.819 --> 00:04:52.150 But a new Bangladesh is emerging… 00:04:52.168 --> 00:04:59.100 Like the Khan family. Mom Taslima, daughters Tanjina and little Sadia. 00:04:59.200 --> 00:05:03.602 And dad Hannan. 00:05:04.100 --> 00:05:07.500 Women take agest to get ready, men don't take as long. 00:05:08.500 --> 00:05:12.800 If you're going to wipe it off with your hands, why put it on? 00:05:14.176 --> 00:05:17.736 Both Taslima and Hannan come from large families themselves. 00:05:17.738 --> 00:05:21.500 But they’ve decided to have just 2 children. 00:05:21.700 --> 00:05:25.402 In Bangladesh there's slogan you hear everywhere. 00:05:26.200 --> 00:05:29.300 "No more than two kids - one is even better!" 00:05:33.550 --> 00:05:36.600 It's lucky I only have two kids. 00:05:37.000 --> 00:05:39.500 If I had more I couldn't afford it. 00:05:39.900 --> 00:05:42.000 With two kids, I can buy what they want. 00:05:47.000 --> 00:05:50.300 My pockets are empty now! 00:05:50.812 --> 00:05:56.002 Taslima and Hannan are part of a cultural shift away from big families. 00:05:56.010 --> 00:05:59.728 And for Taslima, it has also become a job. 00:05:59.740 --> 00:06:03.525 She works for the government Family Planning Service 00:06:03.527 --> 00:06:06.583 which employs women like her in every village. 00:06:06.691 --> 00:06:14.295 She goes door-to-door, to try to help others to have smaller families too. 00:06:15.000 --> 00:06:16.600 When was your last period? 00:06:16.900 --> 00:06:19.000 It was on the 22nd. 00:06:19.300 --> 00:06:21.000 So you're not using any method of contraception? 00:06:21.500 --> 00:06:23.200 Won't it be a problem if you conceive? 00:06:23.600 --> 00:06:25.900 I don't get pregnant easily. 00:06:26.400 --> 00:06:28.400 But you already have two children. 00:06:28.800 --> 00:06:31.000 I don't have time to go to the clinic. 00:06:31.500 --> 00:06:35.622 Taslima offers advice, moral support and most importantly, 00:06:35.850 --> 00:06:38.400 a range of contraceptives. 00:06:39.800 --> 00:06:43.000 You've got three daughters - do you really want to have any more kids? 00:06:44.910 --> 00:06:46.400 It's up to the father. 00:06:46.500 --> 00:06:50.200 You're the one giving birth, why is it up to him? 00:06:50.600 --> 00:06:53.200 You have to go through the pain, he doesn't. 00:06:53.510 --> 00:06:55.122 Who has to go through the pain? 00:06:55.900 --> 00:06:59.600 I go through the pain, but if he wants a boy what can I do? 00:07:00.000 --> 00:07:04.600 Here's the pill, take them when you start your period 00:07:10.000 --> 00:07:13.300 It can be hard to get through to them when they're less educated. 00:07:13.700 --> 00:07:16.200 But gradually we're getting the message across. 00:07:17.270 --> 00:07:23.468 So how successful has Taslima and Bangladesh been in reducing fertility rate? 00:07:23.487 --> 00:07:26.089 That is the number of babies born per woman. 00:07:26.108 --> 00:07:28.912 In Sweden we set up the Gapminder Foundation 00:07:28.914 --> 00:07:33.717 to make the world’s data available in a way that everyone can understand. 00:07:33.749 --> 00:07:37.712 So I can show you the situation in Bangladesh and what has happened. 00:07:37.720 --> 00:07:41.375 Here, a horizontal axis, babies per woman. 00:07:41.427 --> 00:07:44.853 All the way from 1 to 2…. 7 to 8. 00:07:44.871 --> 00:07:48.936 and here a vertical axis, that is lifespan, 00:07:48.937 --> 00:07:53.557 life expectancy, how many years a newborn can expect to live. 00:07:53.692 --> 00:07:56.111 From 30 all the way up to 90. 00:07:56.111 --> 00:08:00.093 Now… we start in 1972 00:08:00.115 --> 00:08:04.970 a very important year for Bangladesh, the first full year of independence. 00:08:04.980 --> 00:08:08.400 That year, Bangladesh was over there 00:08:08.500 --> 00:08:11.489 and they had on average 7 babies per woman 00:08:11.522 --> 00:08:14.949 and lifespan was less than 50 years. 00:08:14.984 --> 00:08:17.336 So what has happened after independence? 00:08:17.386 --> 00:08:22.309 Has life become longer in Bangladesh? Have children become fewer? 00:08:22.326 --> 00:08:25.000 Here is the data. I start Bangladesh 00:08:25.010 --> 00:08:28.669 Indeed, life is getting longer and babies, fewer… 6… 5… 00:08:28.680 --> 00:08:30.941 and life even longer… 4…3… 00:08:30.941 --> 00:08:37.443 and they land now almost in 2. It’s 2.2. And the lifespan is 70. 00:08:37.480 --> 00:08:43.325 It’s absolutely amazing! In 40 years, Bangladesh has gone 00:08:43.357 --> 00:08:48.131 from 7… 6… 5… 4… 3… 2… 00:08:48.150 --> 00:08:52.248 It’s a miracle that has happened in Bangladesh! 00:08:52.300 --> 00:08:56.690 But is it only in Bangladesh? Well, I will show you the whole world. 00:08:56.700 --> 00:09:02.376 I will go back 50 years in time, to 1963. 00:09:02.390 --> 00:09:04.863 Here are all the countries. 00:09:04.890 --> 00:09:13.037 These green ones are America, north and south. The yellow are Europe, east and west. 00:09:13.049 --> 00:09:20.915 Blue is Africa, north and south of the Sahaara. And red is Asia, and we include Australia and New Zealand. 00:09:20.986 --> 00:09:25.400 The size of the bubble shows the size of the population. Look: 00:09:25.428 --> 00:09:31.636 The big ones over there are China and India. And Bangladesh is just behind. 00:09:32.121 --> 00:09:38.211 In 1963 the average number of babies born per woman in the world was 5. 00:09:38.293 --> 00:09:41.700 But it was a divided world… can you see that? 00:09:41.800 --> 00:09:49.002 These countries over here, the developed countries, had small families and long lives. 00:09:49.073 --> 00:09:55.340 And then there were the developing countries, and they had large families and short lives. 00:09:55.350 --> 00:09:57.827 Very few countries were in between. 00:09:57.839 --> 00:10:00.078 But now we will see what has happened. 00:10:00.089 --> 00:10:02.328 I start the world! 00:10:02.399 --> 00:10:03.986 Here we go… 00:10:03.998 --> 00:10:07.890 You can see China, the big bubble, is getting better health 00:10:07.904 --> 00:10:10.974 and then they start family planning, they move along to smaller families. 00:10:10.987 --> 00:10:13.900 The big green, look at Mexico, it is coming there! 00:10:14.095 --> 00:10:16.957 This is Brazil, also the green in Latin America. 00:10:16.970 --> 00:10:22.169 And here India is following. The big red bubbles are Asian countries going this way. 00:10:22.200 --> 00:10:25.439 Many Africans are still with ‘many babies born per woman’. 00:10:25.440 --> 00:10:29.500 And then Bangladesh over there overtakes India on its way to the small family. 00:10:29.705 --> 00:10:33.363 And now almost all countries go up to this part, even Africa now starts to move up. 00:10:33.436 --> 00:10:36.502 Oooh! That was the earthquake in Haiti! 00:10:36.516 --> 00:10:41.537 And now everyone ends up there. What a change we have! 00:10:42.084 --> 00:10:47.578 Today, the average in the world is 2.5 00:10:47.592 --> 00:10:51.902 It used to be 5 fifty years ago. 00:10:52.004 --> 00:10:59.157 The world has changed: the average number of babies born per woman has gone from 5 to 2.5 00:10:59.171 --> 00:11:04.192 And it is still decreasing…. What a big change! 00:11:04.220 --> 00:11:11.300 People would think that Bangladesh and countries like that are some sort of epicenter of a population bomb. 00:11:11.372 --> 00:11:13.491 They couldn’t be more wrong. 00:11:13.563 --> 00:11:17.459 To me, health workers like Mrs. Taslima and their colleagues, 00:11:17.470 --> 00:11:23.738 who have taken their countries from this side… all over… in a few decades 00:11:23.810 --> 00:11:28.713 to much better health and small families, they are the heroes of our time! 00:11:28.785 --> 00:11:32.326 It is an amazing change that has happened. 00:11:32.339 --> 00:11:36.057 We no longer live in a divided world. 00:11:36.544 --> 00:11:41.802 But how much do people know about this amazing change? 00:11:41.816 --> 00:11:50.500 At Gapminder we not only show data, we also measure how much people know or don't know about the world. 00:11:50.523 --> 00:11:56.788 So we did the first survey in Sweden. The results were depressing! 00:11:56.800 --> 00:12:04.429 We did our second survey in Britain. We had high hopes, because the British had been all over the place. 00:12:04.501 --> 00:12:06.916 We thought we would get good results here. 00:12:06.950 --> 00:12:12.898 The first question we asked was: how many babies do women have on average in Bangladesh? 00:12:13.000 --> 00:12:19.300 And we gave four alternatives: 2.5, 3.5, 4.5 or 5.5 00:12:19.500 --> 00:12:22.450 This is the result of the British survey. 00:12:28.458 --> 00:12:33.420 But you know the right answer: it’s 2.5 00:12:33.450 --> 00:12:37.507 Only 12 percent of the British got it right. 00:12:37.520 --> 00:12:43.489 So we thought that perhaps it was those with low education who dragged down the result. 00:12:43.500 --> 00:12:49.531 So we segmented those who had been to the fine British universities and had an university degree. 00:12:49.545 --> 00:12:55.632 And here they are. This is the result. 00:12:57.541 --> 00:13:00.785 If anything, they did worse! 00:13:00.799 --> 00:13:04.931 So now you may conclude that the British lack knowledge about the world. 00:13:04.950 --> 00:13:07.182 No, no! 00:13:07.196 --> 00:13:11.683 What if I would have asked this chimp and his friends? 00:13:11.697 --> 00:13:18.021 I would have written the different answers on bananas and let them pick one banana each. 00:13:18.035 --> 00:13:20.923 This result I would get. 00:13:20.950 --> 00:13:23.766 Of course chimps know nothing about Bangladesh. 00:13:29.052 --> 00:13:34.487 But by pure randomness, they would pick twice as many correct answers as the British. 00:13:35.620 --> 00:13:42.500 More than half of the British people think it’s 4.5 or more. 00:13:43.149 --> 00:13:48.703 The problem here is not lack of knowledge, it is preconceived ideas. 00:13:48.797 --> 00:13:52.300 The British can not even imagine, cannot even guess 00:13:52.325 --> 00:13:57.726 that women in Banglash have 2.5 babies in average. And it is really 2.2 already. 00:13:57.728 --> 00:14:04.894 This is what the British don’t know: that Taslima and her family are the norm in Bangladesh, the most common family size. 00:14:04.908 --> 00:14:12.120 And it’s not only there, it’s all over the world. In Brazil, 2 child families. 00:14:12.150 --> 00:14:16.088 Vietnam, 2 child families. 00:14:16.103 --> 00:14:21.656 And even in India, the most common family size is 2 children today. 00:14:21.671 --> 00:14:26.217 And also if you go to the African continent, you go the big cities like Addis Ababa. 00:14:26.600 --> 00:14:29.593 There are less than 2 children per woman in Addis Ababa. 00:14:29.600 --> 00:14:34.213 There can be Muslin, Buddhist, Hindu, Christian… 00:14:34.228 --> 00:14:39.400 There is not one religion, not one culture, not one continent 00:14:39.405 --> 00:14:41.020 where 2 child families can not happen. 00:14:42.000 --> 00:14:45.680 This change from big families down to 2 child families 00:14:45.702 --> 00:14:51.200 is one of the most important things that have happened in the world during my lifetime. 00:14:51.227 --> 00:14:54.500 It is unprecedented in human history! 00:14:59.600 --> 00:15:02.515 Here we are, back in Bangladesh. 00:15:02.800 --> 00:15:09.867 Let’s find the reasons behind this historic and continuing shift from large to small families. 00:15:10.500 --> 00:15:17.686 Almost all girls in Muslim Bangladesh, like 15-year-old Tanjina, go to school today. 00:15:17.755 --> 00:15:24.693 The government now even pays families money to keep their daughters on at secondary level. 00:15:25.000 --> 00:15:31.400 At Tanjina’s school boys are now outnumbered by girls. 00:15:33.500 --> 00:15:36.300 What type of family is this? 00:15:36.400 --> 00:15:37.700 A big family! 00:15:38.000 --> 00:15:40.500 Will they be short of food? 00:15:40.900 --> 00:15:43.550 You could hardly miss the point of this lesson. 00:15:44.600 --> 00:15:47.800 What type of family is this? 00:15:48.000 --> 00:15:49.000 Will they face any difficulties? 00:15:49.600 --> 00:15:50.500 No! 00:15:51.104 --> 00:15:57.500 Education is effective and there are also new opportunities for Bangladeshi women. 00:15:57.916 --> 00:16:04.726 Despite continuing inequalities, there are more jobs and Tanjina is aiming high. 00:16:05.000 --> 00:16:08.000 I love going to school 00:16:09.000 --> 00:16:12.200 In my mother's day, they used to get married young 00:16:12.400 --> 00:16:14.500 They had no chance to study 00:16:15.200 --> 00:16:19.950 But now we can have big dreams of becoming a doctor or an engineer 00:16:20.129 --> 00:16:24.984 More and more young women here are seeing how different things could be for them. 00:16:26.500 --> 00:16:30.700 I can't imagine how you got married at 17 00:16:30.800 --> 00:16:34.500 I couldn't dream of getting married in two years' time 00:16:34.500 --> 00:16:36.000 It's impossible 00:16:36.800 --> 00:16:38.700 We didn't understand back then 00:16:39.000 --> 00:16:41.000 But people know better now 00:16:42.700 --> 00:16:47.000 So what age are you thinking of getting married? 00:16:47.500 --> 00:16:49.000 Twenty five 00:16:50.000 --> 00:16:53.300 I'll finish my education and get a job 00:16:54.100 --> 00:16:56.400 I'll become a doctor and get married after that 00:16:56.900 --> 00:16:58.800 You're very smart! 00:17:03.299 --> 00:17:09.457 It is wonderful to see Taslima so full of hope for a bright future for her two daughters. 00:17:09.460 --> 00:17:15.084 But one essential transformation underpins the change in Bangladesh. 00:17:15.086 --> 00:17:19.500 It’s a dramatic improvement in child survival. 00:17:24.208 --> 00:17:30.062 It’s Ramadan, the Muslim month of fasting and reflection. 00:17:30.124 --> 00:17:37.058 At this auspicious time, Hanan is helping his parents to tend the family graveyard. 00:17:37.900 --> 00:17:40.200 Press the soil down with your hands 00:17:40.319 --> 00:17:47.957 Three of Hannan’s siblings died when they were very young. They are buried here. 00:17:48.500 --> 00:17:50.500 They died of measles 00:17:51.200 --> 00:17:54.400 We cried so much, it was so sad 00:17:55.000 --> 00:17:57.500 If doctors had been there they could have been treated 00:17:57.700 --> 00:17:59.000 One might have survived 00:17:59.500 --> 00:18:02.800 How can I forget? I will remember them as long as I live 00:18:03.093 --> 00:18:06.080 Back when Hannan’s parents where a young couple, 00:18:06.243 --> 00:18:11.974 1 in 5 children in Bangladesh died before they reached 5 years of age. 00:18:11.978 --> 00:18:17.484 All families lived with a constant fear of losing one or more children. 00:18:18.400 --> 00:18:21.600 You'd carry on having one child after another 00:18:21.800 --> 00:18:24.500 Then if one died, you wouldn't have just one left 00:18:25.300 --> 00:18:27.400 That's how it was 00:18:28.000 --> 00:18:33.300 We didn't think we were having too many children, or what their future would be 00:18:36.383 --> 00:18:44.495 In the last few decades Bangladesh has made great progress in basic health, particularly in child survival. 00:18:44.510 --> 00:18:48.498 Vaccines, treatments of infections and better nutrition and hygiene 00:18:48.500 --> 00:18:51.260 have all saved the lives of millions of children. 00:18:51.990 --> 00:18:57.243 And as parents have come to see that all their children are now likely to survive, 00:18:57.270 --> 00:19:02.041 the biggest obstacle to family planning has at last gone. 00:19:02.070 --> 00:19:08.500 Even in the slums of Dhaka, women now have on average just 2 children. 00:19:14.000 --> 00:19:16.525 Child survival drives everything. 00:19:17.000 --> 00:19:18.900 Let’s go back into history. 00:19:18.950 --> 00:19:24.791 Why did the world population grow so slowly before 1800? 00:19:24.810 --> 00:19:30.003 Throughout history, all historical records show us that, on average 00:19:30.010 --> 00:19:33.794 2 parents got more or less 6 children. 00:19:33.810 --> 00:19:38.710 But that looks as a very fast population growth. So why didn’t it grow? 00:19:38.740 --> 00:19:47.358 Because 1… 2… 3… 4 of the children died before growing up to become parents themselves. 00:19:47.380 --> 00:19:51.900 People in the past never lived in ecological balance with nature, 00:19:51.916 --> 00:19:55.057 they died in ecological balance with nature. 00:19:55.700 --> 00:19:59.086 It was utterly tragic! 00:19:59.120 --> 00:20:02.995 But with the industrial revolution, this changed. 00:20:03.010 --> 00:20:10.636 Better wages, more food, tapped water, better sanitation, soap, medical advances.... 00:20:10.680 --> 00:20:16.618 So from all these advances, why did the population grow? Was it because they got more children? 00:20:16.667 --> 00:20:26.688 No! In 1963 when I was at school, actually the number of children per woman had decreased a little in the world, to 5. 00:20:26.700 --> 00:20:31.886 And the reason for the fast population growth was the improved children survival. 00:20:31.900 --> 00:20:35.025 4 survived at that time. 00:20:35.100 --> 00:20:39.823 But still 1 out of 5 died, that was still terrible. 00:20:39.850 --> 00:20:49.000 It’s only in the recent decades that most countries have taken big leaps forward in child survival and in family planning. 00:20:49.500 --> 00:20:52.554 So that we are now approaching the new balance. 00:20:52.580 --> 00:20:58.714 And it’s a nice balance: 2 parents on average get 2 children that survive. 00:20:58.750 --> 00:21:01.730 We have families in a very happy balance. 00:21:01.732 --> 00:21:05.900 This is the most normal family situation in the world today. 00:21:05.901 --> 00:21:09.494 And what does it mean for the future here? 00:21:09.510 --> 00:21:13.370 I will show you the best projection into the future, 00:21:13.374 --> 00:21:19.208 from the finest demographers we have, at the Population Division of the United Nations. 00:21:19.412 --> 00:21:20.866 And it looks like this. 00:21:20.892 --> 00:21:27.618 It is going to continue first, up to 8… then it goes up to 9… and then it goes here… 00:21:27.880 --> 00:21:29.851 But see: it’s slowing down! 00:21:29.854 --> 00:21:33.837 By the end of the century it is becoming more flat there. 00:21:33.880 --> 00:21:37.568 And if I do a close-up on this, you can see 00:21:37.590 --> 00:21:43.669 that we are expecting a ’slowing down’ and the end of fast population growth. 00:21:45.059 --> 00:21:49.533 But of course this is a projection that has a certain degree of uncertainty. 00:21:49.536 --> 00:21:55.373 But we are sure that we are at the end of fast population growth within this century. 00:21:55.755 --> 00:21:59.993 It is all due to a remarkable effect of the falling fertility rate. 00:21:59.999 --> 00:22:02.007 Look here. If we go back into this 00:22:03.015 --> 00:22:05.798 I will show this by showing you the number of children in the world. 00:22:05.810 --> 00:22:09.589 The number of children from 0 to 15 years of age. 00:22:09.800 --> 00:22:12.254 Here they come. Look: 00:22:12.643 --> 00:22:17.320 The number of children there increased slowly… and then it also increased rapidly… 00:22:17.322 --> 00:22:19.630 So by the turn of the century here 00:22:19.632 --> 00:22:22.619 there were 2 billion children in the world. 00:22:22.630 --> 00:22:29.800 To me that was an important year because that was when Doris was born. That’s my first grandchild. 00:22:29.880 --> 00:22:34.971 She was born at a very special time for children in the world. 00:22:35.211 --> 00:22:40.540 Because the specialist demographers estimate that from this year 00:22:40.545 --> 00:22:44.745 the number of children in the world will continue like this. 00:22:44.748 --> 00:22:47.114 It will not increase any longer. 00:22:47.115 --> 00:22:52.385 By the end of the century we will still have 2 billion children in the world. 00:22:52.446 --> 00:22:59.730 When Doris was born was when the world entered into the age of peak child. 00:23:00.087 --> 00:23:02.980 The number of children are not increasing. 00:23:02.989 --> 00:23:05.890 Now, this will confuse you. 00:23:05.900 --> 00:23:13.000 Because… how can the total population grow like this, if the children don’t increase? 00:23:13.020 --> 00:23:15.784 Where will all these adults come from? 00:23:15.842 --> 00:23:19.989 And to explain that I have to leave this fancy digital stuff 00:23:19.999 --> 00:23:26.386 and show you real powerful educational material we have developed. 00:23:26.400 --> 00:23:30.220 I will show you the world population, ladies and gentleman... 00:23:30.222 --> 00:23:33.901 in the form of foam blocks. 00:23:35.222 --> 00:23:39.890 One block is 1 billion. 00:23:39.910 --> 00:23:44.155 And that means that we have 2 billion children in the world. 00:23:44.180 --> 00:23:49.663 Then we have 2 billion between 15 and 30 years of age. 00:23:49.674 --> 00:23:51.617 These are rounded numbers. 00:23:51.628 --> 00:23:54.230 We have 1 billion of 30 to 45 years of age, 00:23:54.232 --> 00:23:57.836 we have 1 billion of 45 to 60 years of age 00:23:57.966 --> 00:24:03.167 and then we have my block: 60 years and older. We are here on top. 00:24:03.297 --> 00:24:05.654 This is the world population today. 00:24:05.725 --> 00:24:09.563 You can see that there are 3 billions missing here. 00:24:09.600 --> 00:24:12.535 Only a few of them are missing because they have died. 00:24:12.540 --> 00:24:15.960 Most of them are missing because they were never born. 00:24:16.090 --> 00:24:22.052 Because before 1980 there were much fewer children born in the world 00:24:22.054 --> 00:24:24.695 because there were fewer women giving birth to children. 00:24:24.700 --> 00:24:26.800 So this is what we have today. 00:24:26.810 --> 00:24:29.400 Now what will happen in the future? 00:24:29.475 --> 00:24:32.130 Do you know what happens to old people like me? 00:24:32.939 --> 00:24:34.291 They die! 00:24:34.310 --> 00:24:38.496 Yes! There was someone here who works in hospitals. 00:24:38.566 --> 00:24:40.746 So… they die! 00:24:40.800 --> 00:24:45.781 The rest grows 15 years older and have 2 billion children. 00:24:46.740 --> 00:24:49.749 These ones are now old, time to die. 00:24:49.800 --> 00:24:53.900 And then these ones grow 15 years older and they have 2 billion children. 00:24:53.900 --> 00:24:58.561 This one die and the rest grow 15 years older and have 2 billion children. 00:24:58.580 --> 00:25:00.041 Ah! 00:25:00.125 --> 00:25:02.765 Without increasing the number of children, 00:25:02.800 --> 00:25:05.608 without increasing the length of life, 00:25:05.633 --> 00:25:11.353 we have 3 billion people more by this big and inevitable fill up of adults. 00:25:11.390 --> 00:25:15.440 which happen just when the large young generations grow up. 00:25:15.465 --> 00:25:21.100 Now there is one more detail, which is good news for the older ones here, like me. 00:25:21.507 --> 00:25:24.876 It is estimated that the old people will live a little longer. 00:25:24.900 --> 00:25:28.667 So we have to add 1 billion more for the old here on the top. 00:25:28.911 --> 00:25:32.635 And I’m desperately hoping that I will be part of that group. 00:25:32.642 --> 00:25:38.617 Because then I can live long and read annual statistics as they come, reporting every year… 00:25:38.694 --> 00:25:46.328 But when I talk to many fine environmental activists, who have a good concern about the environment 00:25:46.394 --> 00:25:50.798 they very often tell me ‘we have to stop population growth at 8 billion’. 00:25:50.800 --> 00:25:55.998 When I then talk to them… first, they don’t know that we have reached peak child. 00:25:56.000 --> 00:26:03.900 and then they are completely unaware that most of the remaining population growth is an inevitable fill up of adults. 00:26:03.905 --> 00:26:10.198 So we will end up with more or less this amount of people. 00:26:10.850 --> 00:26:15.766 So we know how many billions there will be. But what about where they live? 00:26:16.128 --> 00:26:19.497 Now and in the future. 00:26:21.281 --> 00:26:25.894 There you have the world and here are the 7 billion. 00:26:26.434 --> 00:26:33.061 Out of the 7 billion, 1 live in the America, north and south together. 00:26:33.068 --> 00:26:37.681 1 in Europe, 1 in Africa, 00:26:37.695 --> 00:26:41.531 and 4 in Asia. 00:26:41.538 --> 00:26:43.735 This is nowadays. But how to remember this? 00:26:43.740 --> 00:26:47.513 I have a simple way of remembering this: I put up the numbers like this 00:26:47.550 --> 00:26:51.304 and then I say this is the pin code of the world: 1114. 00:26:51.607 --> 00:26:55.272 Now, what will happen up to mid-century? 00:26:55.336 --> 00:26:57.342 That we know fairly well. 00:26:57.350 --> 00:27:02.080 Europe… no increase. In fact, the European population is decreasing. 00:27:02.100 --> 00:27:06.490 In America, a little more people. Mainly retired people in Latin America, 00:27:06.492 --> 00:27:09.790 So it makes no difference, it's almost the same. 00:27:09.800 --> 00:27:13.005 In Asia we will have 1 billion more. 00:27:13.046 --> 00:27:16.322 and then the population growth in Asia is over. 00:27:16.363 --> 00:27:21.238 In Africa, in the next 40 years, the population will double to 2 billion. 00:27:21.457 --> 00:27:25.088 Now… to the end of the century 00:27:25.100 --> 00:27:29.767 Well… we know quite well: no more people in Europe, no more in America, no more in Asia… 00:27:29.868 --> 00:27:34.600 But Africa is set, as we have data today, for another doubling. 00:27:34.606 --> 00:27:39.628 So there will be 4 billions in Africa. 00:27:39.640 --> 00:27:45.440 At 2100, and probably the final pin code will be 1145. 00:27:45.978 --> 00:27:49.900 So in 2100 there will be quite a different world. 00:27:49.946 --> 00:27:53.987 The people who live in what I call the old west, 00:27:53.999 --> 00:27:58.666 in west Europe and North America, will by then be less than 10 percent of the world population. 00:27:58.772 --> 00:28:03.464 80 percent of the world population will be living in Asia and Africa. 00:28:03.570 --> 00:28:07.314 But will there be resources enough to sustain them? 00:28:07.700 --> 00:28:13.770 Well, this will be a huge challenge and nothing will come automatically. 00:28:13.877 --> 00:28:21.500 But my take is that it is possible for all these billions to live well together. 00:28:28.763 --> 00:28:36.593 Certainly it's easy to see the potential for a prosperous and peaceful Asia, with 5 billion people. 00:28:36.610 --> 00:28:39.791 Japan, South Korea and others are already rich. 00:28:39.800 --> 00:28:49.446 Following them on the road to wealth, are larger and larger parts of China, India, Indonesia and many other Asian countries. 00:28:49.494 --> 00:28:54.954 Even in poorer Asian countries, more and more are getting a decent life. 00:28:56.780 --> 00:29:02.500 But what about a future Africa, of as much as 4 billion? 00:29:02.700 --> 00:29:07.688 Won’t most of them be living in terrible poverty? 00:29:07.737 --> 00:29:11.716 I have seen extreme poverty in Africa. 00:29:11.750 --> 00:29:19.390 30 years ago I spent the 2 most intense years of my life working as medical doctor 00:29:19.391 --> 00:29:24.806 in one of the poorest countries, Mozambique, on the east coast of Africa. 00:29:24.820 --> 00:29:33.039 Mozambique had just become independent after a long war against the colonial power Portugal. 00:29:33.100 --> 00:29:41.276 My job was to be 1 of 2 doctors, we were both foreigners, for 300,000 people. 00:29:41.300 --> 00:29:47.436 And this was the hospital. My wife was also there working as a midwife. 00:29:47.484 --> 00:29:49.864 This is the entire staff of the hospital. 00:29:49.900 --> 00:29:57.623 Those with white coats had the chance during the colonial period to get a professional training of at least one year. 00:29:57.680 --> 00:30:01.295 The others… many of them couldn’t even read or write. 00:30:01.310 --> 00:30:05.796 But they all worked with such dedication and motivation! 00:30:05.964 --> 00:30:11.956 But the patients came with the worse diseases of extreme poverty 00:30:11.968 --> 00:30:15.195 and our resources were often not enough, 00:30:15.210 --> 00:30:21.962 and especially my skills as a young doctor, did not meet the need of the patients. 00:30:21.963 --> 00:30:25.723 Mozambique is still today a very poor country. 00:30:25.724 --> 00:30:30.595 But things have improved immensely since I was there, 30 years ago. 00:30:36.193 --> 00:30:42.767 For a start, there is now a brand new hospital in the town where I worked 30 years ago. 00:30:44.000 --> 00:30:50.117 The new, much bigger hospital has 15 doctors and 11 of them are Mozambicans. 00:30:50.119 --> 00:30:53.938 All the staff are now well trained. 00:30:55.450 --> 00:31:00.853 The director of the hospital is Dr. Cashimo, the obstetrician. 00:31:02.000 --> 00:31:04.000 Everything indicates that… 00:31:04.300 --> 00:31:06.200 it's going to be… 00:31:06.500 --> 00:31:08.000 twins! 00:31:08.665 --> 00:31:13.031 The transformation here is amazing to me! 00:31:14.000 --> 00:31:16.000 We have accident and emergency… 00:31:16.400 --> 00:31:19.500 and paediatric and orthopaedic surgery 00:31:20.700 --> 00:31:24.600 We have big laboratories and a pharmacy that works 24 hours 00:31:24.800 --> 00:31:31.985 They routinely save women in child birth with cesareans, something that was impossible when I was there. 00:31:34.000 --> 00:31:37.500 Nowadays we can do it here, with a professional team… 00:31:38.000 --> 00:31:45.000 in an operating room equipped as well as anywhere else in the world 00:31:47.973 --> 00:31:51.666 Everything has improved so much. 00:31:51.690 --> 00:31:56.600 Those born in Mozambique today should have a much brighter future! 00:32:00.339 --> 00:32:05.162 Not just because of better health, but a booming economy too 00:32:05.190 --> 00:32:07.545 with busy ports and markets 00:32:07.547 --> 00:32:11.500 and new industries with lots of new jobs. 00:32:15.650 --> 00:32:20.474 I know you might be thinking that this good news is just about cities and towns. 00:32:20.476 --> 00:32:22.142 And it’s true! 00:32:22.144 --> 00:32:26.968 The worse challenge is in the rural areas, where most people live. 00:32:27.268 --> 00:32:30.185 But things are changing here too. 00:32:33.166 --> 00:32:39.062 Deep in rural northern Mozambique lies the district of Mogovolas. 00:32:40.137 --> 00:32:45.300 This is home for Olivia, Andre and their young family. 00:32:46.750 --> 00:32:51.496 Like so many other poor people in the world, Olivia and Andre are farmers. 00:32:51.516 --> 00:32:56.262 reliant on what they grow for what they eat. 00:33:00.036 --> 00:33:04.246 It’s 4 a.m. and the day’s tasks beckon. 00:33:06.769 --> 00:33:09.489 Andre heads straight to the fields. 00:33:09.688 --> 00:33:12.706 Olivia first goes to fetch water. 00:33:12.726 --> 00:33:16.500 Both have to walk miles to get anywhere. 00:33:17.900 --> 00:33:20.500 It takes me two hours to get there 00:33:21.600 --> 00:33:25.800 When it's busy it might take two hours 00:33:28.000 --> 00:33:31.600 When I get back I'm tired and hungry 00:33:33.703 --> 00:33:39.682 With no other means of transport, everything has to be carried. 00:33:42.540 --> 00:33:46.653 Olivia and Andre have 8 children. 00:33:46.680 --> 00:33:50.049 Fertility rates are still high in much of rural Africa. 00:33:50.080 --> 00:33:54.517 And it’s the poorest families who have the most mouths to feed. 00:33:54.854 --> 00:33:59.045 Anything this family can spare, they will sell. 00:33:59.800 --> 00:34:02.000 I'm really struggling 00:34:02.800 --> 00:34:09.600 I plant all kinds of crops but even with all the crops I grow… 00:34:09.800 --> 00:34:17.600 I still don't make enough money to provide for my children 00:34:18.800 --> 00:34:22.699 Yet economic growth is slowly trickling into the countryside. 00:34:23.500 --> 00:34:29.500 I saved up for three years to get this roof for my house 00:34:29.800 --> 00:34:35.451 Now Andre has set his sights on one thing he believes will change everything. 00:34:35.800 --> 00:34:40.400 I desperately need a bicycle. I can't get anywhere without one 00:34:42.342 --> 00:34:47.427 Bicycles can make a huge different to the lives of the rural poor. 00:34:47.467 --> 00:34:51.775 They save hours everyday and get so much more done. 00:34:52.054 --> 00:34:56.304 With a bicycle they can carry much heavier loads to the market. 00:34:56.350 --> 00:34:58.210 and earn more money. 00:34:58.230 --> 00:35:00.286 They can travel to find work 00:35:00.288 --> 00:35:04.108 and if they get sick, they can reach a health clinic in time. 00:35:05.600 --> 00:35:12.800 If I get a bicycle I'll be so happy 00:35:13.200 --> 00:35:17.400 Because a house without bicycle is not a home 00:35:17.682 --> 00:35:24.137 Andre and Olivia have been putting money away for 2 years. They haven’t quite enough yet. 00:35:24.200 --> 00:35:29.261 Everything now depends on the sesame seeds, which they are just harvesting. 00:35:29.300 --> 00:35:34.146 If they get can get a good price, they might just make it. 00:35:36.331 --> 00:35:40.283 Andre and Olivia live in one of the poorest countries. 00:35:40.323 --> 00:35:44.275 And they live in the rural area, which is the poorest part of that country. 00:35:44.434 --> 00:35:50.531 So how many people are there in the world living like them? And how many are there that are poor? 00:35:50.690 --> 00:35:52.974 I’m going to show you this yardstick. 00:35:52.999 --> 00:35:56.429 Very simple. Poor… and … rich. 00:35:56.470 --> 00:35:59.467 Here I have all the 7 billions again. 00:35:59.626 --> 00:36:04.710 They are in a very simplified way, lined up there from the poorest to the richest. 00:36:05.167 --> 00:36:11.323 Now, how much does the richest billion earn here, in dollars per day? 00:36:11.363 --> 00:36:13.000 Let's look here. 00:36:13.091 --> 00:36:14.570 Oh… oohhh… 00:36:14.580 --> 00:36:16.357 It’s coming up, it’s coming up…. 00:36:16.400 --> 00:36:17.727 Ooh, yoi-yoi, yoi-yoi... 00:36:17.800 --> 00:36:20.408 I can’t even reach. $100 a day. 00:36:21.077 --> 00:36:26.319 Then let's look at the middle billion. How much do they earn? 00:36:26.350 --> 00:36:30.853 It will come just yet…. Just $10. 00:36:30.955 --> 00:36:35.549 And then I go over here to the poorest billion. How much to they get? 00:36:35.570 --> 00:36:37.897 Well… 00:36:37.950 --> 00:36:40.083 Just $1. 00:36:40.509 --> 00:36:43.240 This is the difference of the world today. 00:36:43.343 --> 00:36:48.400 The economists draw a line, which they call the line for extreme poverty. 00:36:48.450 --> 00:36:49.900 A little above $1. 00:36:50.000 --> 00:36:56.357 That’s when you hardly can have enough food to feed the family, you can not be sure that you have food all days. 00:36:56.558 --> 00:36:58.595 1 billion is clearly below that still. 00:36:58.635 --> 00:37:02.672 and second billion is sort of divided by that line. 00:37:02.874 --> 00:37:05.263 And then the others are above it. 00:37:05.600 --> 00:37:10.202 The poorest people can hardly afford to buy shoes. 00:37:10.220 --> 00:37:14.979 and when they get shoes… the next thing they will save for is bicycle. 00:37:14.999 --> 00:37:17.327 This is where Andre and Olivia are. 00:37:17.350 --> 00:37:20.600 And after bicycle, you will go for the motorbike. 00:37:20.610 --> 00:37:24.486 And then after the motorbike, it’s the car. 00:37:24.572 --> 00:37:29.425 And I remember when my family got the first car, it was a small grey Volkswagen. 00:37:29.511 --> 00:37:35.255 The first thing we did was to go to Norway on holiday, because Norway is so much more beautiful than Sweden. 00:37:35.310 --> 00:37:39.089 It was a fantastic trip! 00:37:39.175 --> 00:37:45.052 And now I’m in this group. I can go like the richest billion, we can go on holiday by airplanes. 00:37:45.057 --> 00:37:48.452 Of course there are people who are much richer than the airplane people. 00:37:48.538 --> 00:37:54.929 Some are so rich that they are even contemplating that they should go as tourists out into space. 00:37:54.935 --> 00:37:59.999 And the difference in income from the airplane people to the very richest over there 00:38:00.010 --> 00:38:05.019 is almost as big as it is from the airplane people here 00:38:05.030 --> 00:38:08.095 all the way down to the poorest in that side. 00:38:08.200 --> 00:38:13.925 Now, the most important to remember from this yardstick is this 00:38:13.963 --> 00:38:18.135 To show you this I need my stepladder. 00:38:18.335 --> 00:38:22.999 Sometimes you need some old well functioning technology also. 00:38:23.274 --> 00:38:26.250 Here. 00:38:29.023 --> 00:38:33.114 I can only reach up… Here they are, now I am at the top. 00:38:33.152 --> 00:38:39.834 The problem for us living on $100 a day is that when we look down 00:38:39.953 --> 00:38:44.773 on those who have $10 or $1 they look equally poor. 00:38:44.900 --> 00:38:46.800 We can’t see the difference. 00:38:46.850 --> 00:38:50.767 It looks as if everyone is living on the same amount of money. 00:38:50.802 --> 00:38:52.710 And they say "oh, they are all poor". 00:38:52.826 --> 00:38:59.592 No, I can assure you, because I’ve met and talked with people who live down here 00:38:59.708 --> 00:39:04.693 and I can assure you that the people down here 00:39:04.700 --> 00:39:10.999 they know very well how much better life would be if they would move from $1 to $10 00:39:11.000 --> 00:39:13.147 10 times as much income. 00:39:13.148 --> 00:39:16.594 This is a huge difference. 00:39:16.620 --> 00:39:22.667 To understand this, this is what Olivia and Andre are trying to do now. 00:39:22.741 --> 00:39:27.162 Each little step they take along this line here 00:39:27.200 --> 00:39:30.362 from the shoes towards the bicycle 00:39:30.390 --> 00:39:36.435 small as it may seem from far distance, make a huge difference in their life. 00:39:36.550 --> 00:39:46.152 And if Andre and Olivia would get that bicycle it would speed them along to better life and better wealth up in this end. 00:39:47.356 --> 00:39:53.900 Today, Andre and Olivia are preparing to sell the sesame crop they’ve been growing for many months. 00:39:54.500 --> 00:39:58.200 The price used to be 25 Meticais 00:39:58.600 --> 00:40:01.500 This year it's better 00:40:02.000 --> 00:40:05.300 We hope to sell it for 40-45 Meticais 00:40:05.985 --> 00:40:11.901 But Andre and Olivia will have to be careful if they are to get paid the proper price. 00:40:12.400 --> 00:40:19.800 We've found out that some buyers have been doctoring the scales 00:40:20.100 --> 00:40:25.800 So if we get it weighed ourselves and it's ten kilos… 00:40:26.000 --> 00:40:35.500 … then take it to the buyers, they might tell us it's seven or eight 00:40:36.183 --> 00:40:38.865 Andre is going to do the selling. 00:40:38.936 --> 00:40:44.900 And for the last time, he hopes, he has to get help to transport the crop to market. 00:40:48.005 --> 00:40:51.400 Andre now needs to keep his wits about him. 00:40:53.000 --> 00:40:57.400 Hey, hey my friend. Do the calculations properly! 00:40:57.974 --> 00:41:02.713 The deal is done. And Andre is happy with the price he’s got. 00:41:06.300 --> 00:41:08.800 Now I'm going to spend my money! 00:41:10.354 --> 00:41:15.021 It’s the moment the family have worked so hard for. 00:41:32.974 --> 00:41:37.722 Andre’s journey to market took all morning to walk. 00:41:37.800 --> 00:41:42.661 Now, in less than an hour, he can ride home. 00:41:49.700 --> 00:41:52.000 You bought a bicycle! 00:41:52.300 --> 00:41:54.000 Yes darling, I bought a bicycle! 00:42:02.043 --> 00:42:05.496 The bicycle is put to use at once. 00:42:05.520 --> 00:42:08.399 The children fetch water with it. 00:42:08.440 --> 00:42:11.813 Andre carries more crops to the market 00:42:11.900 --> 00:42:17.724 and, just as importantly, Olivia and Andre can now easily reach their lessons for adults 00:42:17.750 --> 00:42:23.149 so they can learn better maths and how to read and write. 00:42:24.700 --> 00:42:30.700 Now I want to save up to buy a motorbike to carry my wife and children 00:42:32.400 --> 00:42:34.100 That's what I want next 00:42:39.372 --> 00:42:45.741 It’s so great to see Olivia and Andre pedalling their way out of extreme poverty. 00:42:45.850 --> 00:42:49.465 And they use the bicycle to go to literacy classes. 00:42:49.500 --> 00:42:54.647 Education is so important for the progress of people and nations. 00:42:55.249 --> 00:43:00.558 But how many know what has really happened with education in the world? 00:43:00.600 --> 00:43:04.768 Time for the great British ignorance survey again 00:43:04.810 --> 00:43:05.739 Here we go. 00:43:05.774 --> 00:43:11.163 We asked what percent of adults in the world today are literate, can read and write? 00:43:11.685 --> 00:43:17.700 Can I ask the audience? How many guess 20 percent? Hands up. 00:43:18.000 --> 00:43:20.394 40 percent? 00:43:21.700 --> 00:43:23.962 60 percent? 00:43:23.963 --> 00:43:26.923 And 80 percent? Ah, ah, ah. 00:43:27.121 --> 00:43:30.647 This is the result of the British sample. 00:43:35.947 --> 00:43:42.955 By now you can use the result of the British survey to find out what the right answer is, isn’t it? 00:43:43.072 --> 00:43:46.922 Of course, 80 percent is the right answer. 00:43:46.950 --> 00:43:50.808 At least you were clearly better than the British average. 00:43:51.492 --> 00:43:55.300 Yes, 80 percent the population in the world can read and write today. 00:43:55.310 --> 00:43:59.834 Literacy is 80 percent… actually, the last figure is a little higher. 00:43:59.912 --> 00:44:04.530 So if I would have compared that with the chimps again, you know... 00:44:04.542 --> 00:44:08.300 once more you only get random results from the chimps. 00:44:08.340 --> 00:44:12.834 But you get 3 times as many correct answers than you get from the British. 00:44:13.352 --> 00:44:17.125 And now the university people 00:44:17.189 --> 00:44:20.364 Perhaps they know this... oh, even worse. 00:44:20.477 --> 00:44:24.250 What on earth are they teaching at British universities? 00:44:24.282 --> 00:44:31.132 The common view about the world is outdated with several decades. The media has missed to communicate it. 00:44:31.488 --> 00:44:35.423 But perhaps this is because the world is changing so fast. 00:44:35.430 --> 00:44:37.366 Ladies and gentlemen, 00:44:37.398 --> 00:44:41.171 I’m going to give you my all time favourite graph, 00:44:41.190 --> 00:44:48.863 I’m going to show you the history of 200 countries during 200 years in less than 1 minute. 00:44:48.880 --> 00:44:55.179 I have an axis for income. I have an axis for lifespan. 00:44:55.190 --> 00:44:59.551 I start in 1800 and there are all the countries. 00:44:59.580 --> 00:45:04.409 And back in 1800 everyone was down in the poor and sick corner, can you see? 00:45:04.420 --> 00:45:06.595 Low lifespan, little money. 00:45:06.708 --> 00:45:09.186 And here comes the effect of the Industrial Revolution. 00:45:09.200 --> 00:45:15.178 Of course, the countries in West Europe are coming to better wealth, but are not getting much healthier in the beginning 00:45:15.291 --> 00:45:18.822 And those on the colonial domination doesn’t benefit anything in there, 00:45:18.935 --> 00:45:21.170 they remain there in the sick and poor corner. 00:45:21.202 --> 00:45:27.243 And now health is slowly improving here, it’s getting up here and we are coming into the new century. 00:45:27.280 --> 00:45:31.600 And the terrible First World War, and then the economic recession after that. 00:45:31.800 --> 00:45:34.200 And then the Second World War. 00:45:34.500 --> 00:45:36.858 Ooh. And now independence. 00:45:36.900 --> 00:45:41.473 And with independence health is improving faster than it ever did in other countries here. 00:45:41.520 --> 00:45:47.384 And now starts the fast economic catch-up of China and other Latin American countries. 00:45:47.593 --> 00:45:49.003 They come on here you know. 00:45:49.050 --> 00:45:53.213 And India is following there and the African countries are also following. 00:45:53.260 --> 00:45:56.500 It’s an amazing change that has happened in the world. 00:45:56.550 --> 00:46:02.800 You know, in the front here we have now US and UK, but they are not moving so fast any longer. 00:46:02.801 --> 00:46:05.406 The fast movers are here in the middle. 00:46:05.450 --> 00:46:08.968 China is moving very fast to catch up. And Bangladesh... 00:46:09.000 --> 00:46:14.750 Look, Bangladesh is already here, now quite healthy and now starting with fast economic growth. 00:46:15.010 --> 00:46:20.499 And Mozambique… Yes, Mozambique is back there, but they are now moving fast in the right direction. 00:46:20.856 --> 00:46:24.952 But all this I show you are country averages. 00:46:25.066 --> 00:46:29.648 What about people? Have people also got a better life? 00:46:29.681 --> 00:46:34.263 I am now going to show you something which makes me very excited as a statistician. 00:46:34.377 --> 00:46:39.000 I'm going to show you income distribution. The difference between people. 00:46:39.100 --> 00:46:42.359 And to do that I take the bubbles back 50 years 00:46:42.380 --> 00:46:45.354 and then we are going to look only at money. 00:46:45.380 --> 00:46:52.074 And to do that we have to expand and adjust the axis, because the richest is so rich and the poorest is so poor, 00:46:52.100 --> 00:46:55.231 so this will be a bigger difference than between the countries. 00:46:55.265 --> 00:47:00.332 And now we let the country fall down here. This is the United States, 00:47:00.350 --> 00:47:03.408 and spread to show the range within the country. 00:47:03.450 --> 00:47:06.484 And I take down all the countries in the Americas. 00:47:06.490 --> 00:47:10.370 And now you can see from the richest person to the poorest person. 00:47:10.486 --> 00:47:15.228 And the height here shows you how many there are on each income level. 00:47:15.263 --> 00:47:18.800 And now let’s take down Europe. 00:47:19.000 --> 00:47:22.900 And on top of that I’m going to put Africa. 00:47:23.278 --> 00:47:29.500 And finally, the region with most people, on top of everything, Asia. 00:47:29.990 --> 00:47:36.100 Now, in 1963 the world was constituted by two humps: 00:47:36.144 --> 00:47:40.075 first, the richest hump, it’s like a camel, isn’t it? 00:47:40.111 --> 00:47:44.042 The first hump here with the richest is mainly Europe and the Americas. 00:47:44.060 --> 00:47:49.062 And the poorest hump over here is mainly Asia and Africa. 00:47:49.423 --> 00:47:51.896 And the poverty line was there. 00:47:52.095 --> 00:47:58.086 Can you see how many people there were in extreme poverty 50 years ago? 00:47:58.087 --> 00:48:00.074 And most of them were in Asia. 00:48:00.110 --> 00:48:06.147 And people were saying Asia will never get out of poverty, exactly as some people are still saying about Africa today. 00:48:06.160 --> 00:48:07.928 Now, what has happened? 00:48:07.965 --> 00:48:09.466 I start the world. 00:48:09.503 --> 00:48:15.053 And you can see that many people are born into poverty here, but Asia goes towards higher income 00:48:15.090 --> 00:48:19.101 and 1 billion goes out of extreme poverty this way 00:48:19.300 --> 00:48:24.121 and the whole shape of the world change, and that camel is dead. 00:48:24.150 --> 00:48:27.360 It’s reborn as a dromedary. 00:48:27.640 --> 00:48:30.518 And what you can see here, you know, 00:48:30.636 --> 00:48:36.024 is the variation from the richest, that is most people in the middle, 00:48:36.142 --> 00:48:40.963 and there’s a much smaller proportion of the world now in extreme poverty 00:48:41.000 --> 00:48:46.307 but be careful, it’s still a lot of people: more than 1 billion people in extreme poverty. 00:48:46.668 --> 00:48:52.866 Now the question is: can this ‘move out of extreme poverty’ now continue 00:48:52.867 --> 00:48:57.238 for those in Africa and even for the new billions in Africa? 00:48:59.380 --> 00:49:06.630 I think it’s possible, even probable, that most countries in Africa will rise out of poverty too. 00:49:06.630 --> 00:49:12.298 It will need wise action and huge investment, but it can happen. 00:49:14.427 --> 00:49:19.735 The many countries of Africa are not all advancing at the same pace. 00:49:20.000 --> 00:49:24.350 A few are moving very fast, others are stuck in conflict. 00:49:24.351 --> 00:49:28.722 But most, like Mozambique, are now making steady progress. 00:49:30.910 --> 00:49:35.281 And what about feeding all the new African people in the future? 00:49:35.363 --> 00:49:41.600 Yes, there are shortages today, but there is also much potential here. 00:49:42.002 --> 00:49:49.400 Agricultural yields in Africa are just a fraction of what they could be with better technology. 00:49:53.095 --> 00:49:57.386 And Africa’s rivers are barely tapped for irrigation. 00:49:57.399 --> 00:50:05.483 One day Africa could hum with combine harvesters and tractors and grow food for many more billions. 00:50:05.888 --> 00:50:10.989 And please, don’t imagine it’s just me who thinks Africa can make it. 00:50:10.999 --> 00:50:20.463 The United Nations is about to set itself a new official goal: eliminating extreme poverty within 20 years. 00:50:21.030 --> 00:50:26.698 Everyone understands it’s a huge challenge, but I seriously believe it’s possible. 00:50:27.993 --> 00:50:29.937 Imagine if that would happen. 00:50:30.017 --> 00:50:34.957 Now, what we have seen so far is that the rich end moves... 00:50:34.990 --> 00:50:40.949 and the middle... it moves. But this poorest end is stuck. 00:50:41.919 --> 00:50:46.860 It’s here in extreme poverty we find almost all the illiteracy. 00:50:46.990 --> 00:50:51.394 Here we find high child mortality and still many babies born per woman. 00:50:51.558 --> 00:50:58.927 It’s like extreme poverty reproduces itself if you don’t end it swiftly. 00:50:58.928 --> 00:51:05.200 But Andre and Olivia, and people like that, work so hard to get away from it, 00:51:05.220 --> 00:51:10.992 and if they only can get the right help from their government and from the world at large 00:51:10.999 --> 00:51:18.884 with things like school, health, vaccines, roads, electricity, contraceptives, 00:51:19.015 --> 00:51:25.443 then they will manage, but they will mainly manage by their own hard work. 00:51:25.493 --> 00:51:31.921 Here we go… go on... follow Andre and Olivia across the line, you know. 00:51:31.950 --> 00:51:36.698 It is possible within some decades… Yes! 00:51:36.800 --> 00:51:40.660 But getting out of poverty is just the beginning. 00:51:40.664 --> 00:51:46.333 People want to continue along this line to a good life. 00:51:46.384 --> 00:51:49.225 But what does a good life mean? 00:51:50.756 --> 00:51:57.727 For most people in the world the good life they are striving for will mean more machines and much more use of energy. 00:51:58.043 --> 00:52:06.715 So there’s a problem. Because all this adds to one of the great threats for the future: severe climate change. 00:52:06.950 --> 00:52:11.816 80 percent of the energy the world uses is still fossil fuels, 00:52:11.970 --> 00:52:17.160 and the science shows that the climate may change dramatically in the future 00:52:17.190 --> 00:52:24.800 because of the carbon dioxide emission from continuing to burn all these fossil fuels. 00:52:26.416 --> 00:52:31.281 I’m not the best person to tell you how bad climate change will be 00:52:31.355 --> 00:52:34.358 nor am I a specialist on how to prevent it. 00:52:34.513 --> 00:52:42.212 What I can do is to show you data to make you understand who is the one that emits the carbon dioxide. 00:52:42.250 --> 00:52:44.641 I will show this. 00:52:44.670 --> 00:52:49.350 You remember the yardstick from the poorest billion to the richest billion 00:52:49.411 --> 00:52:53.884 from the one who hardly can afford shoes to the one who flies with airplanes 00:52:53.945 --> 00:53:02.548 Now this shows the total amount of fossil fuel used in the world during one year 00:53:02.690 --> 00:53:05.301 coal, oil and natural gas. 00:53:05.362 --> 00:53:09.187 And it represents more or less the total emission of carbon dioxide. 00:53:09.250 --> 00:53:13.154 Now how much of that is used by the richest billion? 00:53:14.105 --> 00:53:16.150 Half of it. 00:53:16.291 --> 00:53:18.903 Now the second richest billion. 00:53:18.950 --> 00:53:21.332 Half of what’s left. 00:53:21.392 --> 00:53:24.004 And you understand what the third use 00:53:24.226 --> 00:53:28.214 half of what’s left. And the others use hardly anything. 00:53:28.250 --> 00:53:37.687 This are rounded numbers, but it clearly shows that almost all the fossil fuel is used here by the 1, 2, 3 richest billions 00:53:37.688 --> 00:53:40.197 more than 85 percent they use. 00:53:40.200 --> 00:53:47.646 Now the richest billion at least have stopped increasing, but we are yet to see whether they will decrease. 00:53:47.649 --> 00:53:52.909 And in the coming decades it’s the economic growth of these 2 00:53:52.950 --> 00:53:57.443 that will increase the fossil fuel use and the carbon dioxide emission. 00:53:57.527 --> 00:54:03.273 Even if these ones over here come out of extreme poverty and get richer all the way to the motorbike 00:54:03.276 --> 00:54:07.807 that doesn’t contribute much to the emission of carbon dioxide. 00:54:07.810 --> 00:54:15.013 And regarding population growth, most of the additional billions in the next 40 years will be in this group here. 00:54:15.078 --> 00:54:19.999 But still, if you ask people in the richest end they seem to get everything wrong. 00:54:20.017 --> 00:54:24.709 They look down on the world from their very high emission and then they say: 00:54:24.750 --> 00:54:30.296 “Oh, those over there, you cannot live like us, you will destroy the planet”. 00:54:30.866 --> 00:54:37.907 You see, I find the argument from the people here catching up to be much more correct and logic. 00:54:38.072 --> 00:54:42.846 They say: "Huh! Who are you to tell us that we can’t live like you? 00:54:43.335 --> 00:54:48.109 You’d better change first if you want us to do it differently”. 00:54:50.460 --> 00:54:56.125 There are many essentials to having a good life that billions in the world do not yet have. 00:54:56.128 --> 00:55:02.926 Andre’s village and house, and so many like them, don’t even have electricity. 00:55:03.577 --> 00:55:06.893 Mozambique has huge coal reserves 00:55:06.999 --> 00:55:13.937 and if it and the other poorest countries build affordable new power-stations burning coal for electricity and industry 00:55:14.021 --> 00:55:19.767 I don’t think anyone who emits more carbon should interfere. 00:55:19.770 --> 00:55:26.001 Now, I’m going to ask you two questions that I often ask my Swedish students. 00:55:26.247 --> 00:55:31.479 The first one is: how many of you have not travelled by an airplane this year? 00:55:33.615 --> 00:55:35.232 Uh-huh. 00:55:35.477 --> 00:55:39.766 Quite a few can do without flying. So the next question is: 00:55:39.768 --> 00:55:45.982 How many of you have stayed away from washing machines and have hand washed all bedsheets, 00:55:45.984 --> 00:55:48.886 clothes and laundry during the last year? 00:55:50.281 --> 00:55:52.870 I thought so, no one. 00:55:53.034 --> 00:55:59.105 Everyone who can afford to use a washing machine, even the hard core in the environmental movement. 00:55:59.795 --> 00:56:03.437 And I still remember the day when my family got a washing machine. 00:56:03.520 --> 00:56:07.080 It was 1st November 1952. 00:56:07.083 --> 00:56:11.209 Grandma was invited to be the first to load the machine. 00:56:11.455 --> 00:56:15.338 She had hand washed her entire life for a family of 9. 00:56:15.422 --> 00:56:24.002 And when she loaded the machine she sat down on a footstool and she watched the entire programme during one hour. 00:56:24.010 --> 00:56:26.269 She was absolutely mesmerised. 00:56:26.300 --> 00:56:32.018 For my mother it also meant a lot of more free time to do other things. 00:56:32.183 --> 00:56:37.119 She could read books for me, I think that’s what made me a professor. 00:56:37.200 --> 00:56:40.762 No wonder we said thank you steel mill, 00:56:40.800 --> 00:56:45.539 thank you washing powder factory, thank you electrical power station. 00:56:47.566 --> 00:56:49.587 Now... 00:56:49.995 --> 00:56:57.116 When thinking about where all this leave us I have just one little humble advice to you, 00:56:57.120 --> 00:57:00.922 beside everything else: look at the data. 00:57:00.925 --> 00:57:02.865 Look at the facts about the world. 00:57:02.900 --> 00:57:11.042 And you will see where we are today and how we can move forwards with all these billions on our wonderful planet. 00:57:12.342 --> 00:57:16.144 The challenges of extreme poverty have been greatly reduced 00:57:16.145 --> 00:57:21.200 and it’s for the first time in history within our power to end it for good. 00:57:22.625 --> 00:57:27.479 The challenge of population growth is, in fact, already being solved, 00:57:27.563 --> 00:57:31.100 the number of children has stopped growing. 00:57:31.150 --> 00:57:36.687 And for the challenge for climate change, we can still avoid the worst. 00:57:37.125 --> 00:57:44.226 But that requires that the richest, as soon as possible, 00:57:44.250 --> 00:57:51.675 find a way to set their use of resources and energy at a level that, step by step, 00:57:51.690 --> 00:57:57.748 can be shared by 10 billions or 11 billions by the end of this century. 00:57:57.934 --> 00:58:01.230 I’ve never called myself an optimist, 00:58:01.334 --> 00:58:03.983 but I do say I’m a possibilist. 00:58:03.984 --> 00:58:08.193 And I also say the world is much better than many of you think. 00:58:08.459 --> 00:58:11.432 Thank you very much!