[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.64,0:00:03.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, there's about\Nseven and a half billion of us.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:04.64,0:00:08.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The World Health Organization tells us\Nthat 300 million of us are depressed,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:09.21,0:00:12.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and about 800,000 people\Ntake their lives every year.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:12.80,0:00:16.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A tiny subset of them choose\Na profoundly nihilistic route,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:16.90,0:00:21.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is they die in the act of killing\Nas many people as possible.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:21.14,0:00:23.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These are some famous recent examples.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:24.02,0:00:27.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And here's a less famous one.\NIt happened about nine weeks ago.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.08,0:00:28.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you don't remember it,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:28.29,0:00:30.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's because there's\Na lot of this going on.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:30.40,0:00:35.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Wikipedia just last year\Ncounted 323 mass shootings
Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.10,0:00:38.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in my home country, the United States.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:38.11,0:00:40.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not all of those shooters were suicidal,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:40.35,0:00:43.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not all of them were maximizing\Ntheir death tolls,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:43.17,0:00:44.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but many, many were.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:44.97,0:00:48.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,An important question becomes:\NWhat limits do these people have?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:48.57,0:00:50.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Take the Vegas shooter.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:50.10,0:00:52.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He slaughtered 58 people.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.34,0:00:55.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Did he stop there because he'd had enough?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:55.80,0:01:01.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No, and we know this because\Nhe shot and injured another 422 people
Dialogue: 0,0:01:01.47,0:01:03.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who he surely would have\Npreferred to kill.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:04.28,0:01:07.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have no reason to think\Nhe would have stopped at 4,200.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.05,0:01:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, with somebody this nihilistic,\Nhe may well have gladly killed us all.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:11.03,0:01:12.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We don't know.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:12.95,0:01:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What we do know is this:
Dialogue: 0,0:01:15.02,0:01:18.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when suicidal murderers really go all in,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:18.47,0:01:21.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,technology is the force multiplier.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.84,0:01:23.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here's an example.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.28,0:01:28.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Several years back, there was a rash\Nof 10 mass school attacks in China
Dialogue: 0,0:01:28.30,0:01:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,carried out with things\Nlike knives and hammers and cleavers,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:32.03,0:01:34.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because guns are really hard to get there.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:34.10,0:01:38.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By macabre coincidence,\Nthis last attack occurred
Dialogue: 0,0:01:38.11,0:01:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just hours before the massacre\Nin Newtown, Connecticut.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.02,0:01:46.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But that one American attack killed\Nroughly the same number of victims
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.43,0:01:49.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as the 10 Chinese attacks combined.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.38,0:01:55.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we can fairly say,\Nknife: terrible; gun: way worse.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:55.27,0:01:57.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And airplane: massively worse,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:58.01,0:02:02.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as pilot Andreas Lubitz showed\Nwhen he forced 149 people
Dialogue: 0,0:02:02.24,0:02:04.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to join him in his suicide,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:04.28,0:02:06.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,smashing a plane into the French Alps.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.05,0:02:09.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there are other examples of this.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:09.86,0:02:14.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I'm afraid there are far more deadly\Nweapons in our near future than airplanes,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:14.93,0:02:16.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ones not made of metal.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:17.12,0:02:22.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's consider the apocalyptic\Ndynamics that will ensue
Dialogue: 0,0:02:22.27,0:02:27.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if suicidal mass murder hitches a ride\Non a rapidly advancing field
Dialogue: 0,0:02:27.17,0:02:30.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that for the most part holds\Nboundless promise for society.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:31.61,0:02:34.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Somewhere out there in the world,\Nthere's a tiny group of people
Dialogue: 0,0:02:34.69,0:02:37.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who would attempt, however ineptly,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.32,0:02:40.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to kill us all if they\Ncould just figure out how.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:40.74,0:02:43.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Vegas shooter may or may not\Nhave been one of them,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:43.46,0:02:45.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but with seven and a half billion of us,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.44,0:02:47.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this is a nonzero population.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.90,0:02:50.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's plenty of suicidal\Nnihilists out there.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:50.17,0:02:51.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We've already seen that.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.38,0:02:55.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's people with severe mood disorders\Nthat they can't even control.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.11,0:03:00.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are people who have just suffered\Nderanging traumas, etc. etc.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.99,0:03:02.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As for the corollary group,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:02.67,0:03:07.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,its size was simply zero forever\Nuntil the Cold War,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:07.40,0:03:10.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when suddenly, the leaders\Nof two global alliances
Dialogue: 0,0:03:10.25,0:03:12.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,attained the ability to blow up the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:14.04,0:03:17.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The number of people\Nwith actual doomsday buttons
Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.58,0:03:20.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has stayed fairly stable since then.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:20.25,0:03:22.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I'm afraid it's about to grow,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:22.46,0:03:24.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and not just to three.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.08,0:03:25.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is going off the charts.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.52,0:03:28.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, it's going to look\Nlike a tech business plan.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.15,0:03:30.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:03:32.26,0:03:33.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the reason is,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:33.95,0:03:36.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're in the era\Nof exponential technologies,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:36.32,0:03:41.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which routinely take\Neternal impossibilities
Dialogue: 0,0:03:41.13,0:03:46.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and make them the actual superpowers\Nof one or two living geniuses
Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.96,0:03:48.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and -- this is the big part --
Dialogue: 0,0:03:48.77,0:03:51.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then diffuse those powers\Nto more or less everybody.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.85,0:03:53.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, here's a benign example.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:53.54,0:03:58.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you wanted to play checkers\Nwith a computer in 1952,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:58.22,0:04:01.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you literally had to be that guy,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.72,0:04:06.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then commandeer one of the world's\N19 copies of that computer,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:06.73,0:04:10.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then used your Nobel-adjacent brain\Nto teach it checkers.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:10.38,0:04:11.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That was the bar.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:12.87,0:04:17.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Today, you just need to know someone\Nwho knows someone who owns a telephone,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:17.58,0:04:20.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because computing\Nis an exponential technology.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:21.24,0:04:23.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So is synthetic biology,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.28,0:04:25.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which I'll now refer to as "synbio."
Dialogue: 0,0:04:26.01,0:04:31.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in 2011, a couple of researchers\Ndid something every bit as ingenious
Dialogue: 0,0:04:31.72,0:04:34.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and unprecedented as the checkers trick
Dialogue: 0,0:04:34.85,0:04:36.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with H5N1 flu.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:37.44,0:04:42.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is a strain that kills\Nup to 60 percent of the people it infects,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:42.12,0:04:43.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more than Ebola.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:43.83,0:04:46.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it is so uncontagious
Dialogue: 0,0:04:46.53,0:04:50.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it's killed fewer\Nthan 50 people since 2015.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:50.57,0:04:54.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So these researchers edited H5N1's genome
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.66,0:04:59.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and made it every bit as deadly,\Nbut also wildly contagious.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:59.28,0:05:02.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The news arm of one of the world's\Ntop two scientific journals
Dialogue: 0,0:05:02.65,0:05:06.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,said if this thing got out,\Nit would likely cause a pandemic
Dialogue: 0,0:05:06.49,0:05:08.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with perhaps millions of deaths.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:08.78,0:05:10.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And Dr. Paul Keim said
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.67,0:05:14.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he could not think of an organism\Nas scary as this,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:14.64,0:05:17.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is the last thing\NI personally want to hear
Dialogue: 0,0:05:17.77,0:05:22.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from the Chairman of the National\NScience Advisory Board on Biosecurity.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:22.69,0:05:25.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And by the way, Dr. Keim also said this --
Dialogue: 0,0:05:25.61,0:05:28.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,["I don't think anthrax\Nis scary at all compared to this."]
Dialogue: 0,0:05:28.43,0:05:29.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And he's also one of these.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:29.76,0:05:31.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[Anthrax expert] (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:05:31.12,0:05:34.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, the good news about the 2011 biohack
Dialogue: 0,0:05:34.74,0:05:37.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that the people who did it\Ndidn't mean us any harm.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:37.83,0:05:39.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're virologists.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:39.04,0:05:41.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They believed they were advancing science.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:41.24,0:05:44.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The bad news is that technology\Ndoes not freeze in place,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:45.00,0:05:47.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and over the next few decades,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:47.05,0:05:50.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,their feat will become trivially easy.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:50.56,0:05:54.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, it's already way easier,\Nbecause as we learned yesterday morning,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.42,0:05:56.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just two years after they did their work,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:56.40,0:05:59.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the CRISPR system was harnessed\Nfor genome editing.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:59.93,0:06:01.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This was a radical breakthrough
Dialogue: 0,0:06:01.86,0:06:05.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that makes gene editing\Nmassively easier --
Dialogue: 0,0:06:05.16,0:06:08.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so easy that CRISPR\Nis now taught in high schools.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:08.82,0:06:12.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this stuff is moving\Nquicker than computing.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:12.15,0:06:15.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That slow, stodgy white line up there?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:15.28,0:06:17.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's Moore's law.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.57,0:06:21.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That shows us how quickly\Ncomputing is getting cheaper.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:21.37,0:06:24.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That steep, crazy-fun green line,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:24.43,0:06:28.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that shows us how quickly\Ngenetic sequencing is getting cheaper.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:28.52,0:06:32.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, gene editing\Nand synthesis and sequencing,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:32.14,0:06:34.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they're different disciplines,\Nbut they're tightly related.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:34.96,0:06:37.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they're all moving\Nin these headlong rates.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:37.24,0:06:40.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the keys to the kingdom\Nare these tiny, tiny data files.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:40.99,0:06:44.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That is an excerpt of H5N1's genome.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:44.92,0:06:47.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The whole thing can fit\Non just a few pages.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:47.85,0:06:51.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And yeah, don't worry, you can Google this\Nas soon as you get home.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:51.08,0:06:52.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's all over the internet, right?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:52.84,0:06:54.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the part that made it contagious
Dialogue: 0,0:06:54.80,0:06:57.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,could well fit on a single Post-it note.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:57.15,0:07:01.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And once a genius makes a data file,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:01.18,0:07:03.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,any idiot can copy it,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.53,0:07:05.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,distribute it worldwide
Dialogue: 0,0:07:05.57,0:07:07.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or print it.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:07.23,0:07:09.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I don't just mean print it on this,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:09.95,0:07:12.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but soon enough, on this.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:12.99,0:07:14.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's imagine a scenario.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:15.29,0:07:18.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's say it's 2026,\Nto pick an arbitrary year,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:18.65,0:07:21.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a brilliant virologist,\Nhoping to advance science
Dialogue: 0,0:07:21.65,0:07:23.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and better understand pandemics,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:23.98,0:07:25.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,designs a new bug.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:25.96,0:07:28.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's as contagious as chicken pox,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:28.14,0:07:30.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's as deadly as Ebola,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:30.08,0:07:34.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it incubates for months and months\Nbefore causing an outbreak,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:34.11,0:07:38.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so the whole world can be infected\Nbefore the first sign of trouble.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:38.71,0:07:41.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then, her university gets hacked.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:41.24,0:07:43.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And of course,\Nthis is not science fiction.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:43.69,0:07:45.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, just one recent US indictment
Dialogue: 0,0:07:45.90,0:07:49.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,documents the hacking\Nof over 300 universities.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:49.100,0:07:55.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that file with the bug's genome on it\Nspreads to the internet's dark corners.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:55.54,0:07:59.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And once a file is out there,\Nit never comes back --
Dialogue: 0,0:07:59.22,0:08:03.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just ask anybody who runs\Na movie studio or a music label.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:04.00,0:08:06.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So now maybe in 2026,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:06.100,0:08:09.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it would take a true genius\Nlike our virologist
Dialogue: 0,0:08:09.23,0:08:11.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to make the actual living critter,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:11.87,0:08:13.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but 15 years later,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:13.82,0:08:17.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it may just take a DNA printer\Nyou can find at any high school.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:17.88,0:08:19.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if not?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:19.51,0:08:21.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Give it a couple of decades.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:22.25,0:08:24.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, a quick aside:
Dialogue: 0,0:08:24.68,0:08:25.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Remember this slide here?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:25.95,0:08:28.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Turn your attention to these two words.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:28.84,0:08:35.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If somebody tries this\Nand is only 0.1 percent effective,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:35.14,0:08:36.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,eight million people die.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:36.97,0:08:40.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's 2,500 9/11s.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:40.63,0:08:43.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Civilization would survive,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:43.06,0:08:45.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it would be permanently disfigured.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:46.59,0:08:49.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this means we need\Nto be concerned about anybody
Dialogue: 0,0:08:49.76,0:08:51.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who has the faintest shot on goal,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:51.91,0:08:53.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not just geniuses.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:54.69,0:08:59.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So today, there's a tiny\Nhandful of geniuses
Dialogue: 0,0:08:59.76,0:09:01.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who probably could make a doomsday bug
Dialogue: 0,0:09:01.92,0:09:05.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's .1-percent effective\Nand maybe even a little bit more.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:05.07,0:09:10.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They tend to be stable and successful\Nand so not part of this group.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:10.10,0:09:13.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I guess I'm sorta kinda\Nbarely OK-ish with that.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:14.31,0:09:17.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But what about after technology improves
Dialogue: 0,0:09:17.20,0:09:18.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and diffuses
Dialogue: 0,0:09:18.81,0:09:22.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and thousands of life science\Ngrad students are enabled?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:22.16,0:09:25.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Are every single one of them\Ngoing to be perfectly stable?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:25.73,0:09:27.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or how about a few years after that,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:27.58,0:09:31.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where every stress-ridden\Npremed is fully enabled?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:31.31,0:09:33.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At some point in that time frame,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:33.23,0:09:35.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these circles are going to intersect,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:35.57,0:09:39.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because we're now starting to talk about\Nhundreds of thousands of people
Dialogue: 0,0:09:39.08,0:09:40.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,throughout the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:40.26,0:09:44.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they recently included that guy\Nwho dressed up like the Joker
Dialogue: 0,0:09:44.34,0:09:47.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and shot 12 people to death\Nat a Batman premiere.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:47.62,0:09:49.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That was a neuroscience PhD student
Dialogue: 0,0:09:49.79,0:09:51.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with an NIH grant.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.48,0:09:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,OK, plot twist:
Dialogue: 0,0:09:55.03,0:09:59.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think we can actually survive this one\Nif we start focusing on it now.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:59.95,0:10:02.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I say this, having spent\Ncountless hours
Dialogue: 0,0:10:02.94,0:10:05.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,interviewing global leaders in synbio
Dialogue: 0,0:10:05.94,0:10:09.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and also researching their work\Nfor science podcasts I create.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:09.100,0:10:15.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I have come to fear their work, in case\NI haven't gotten that out there yet --
Dialogue: 0,0:10:15.16,0:10:16.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:10:16.73,0:10:20.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but more than that,\Nto revere its potential.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:20.10,0:10:23.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This stuff will cure cancer,\Nheal our environment
Dialogue: 0,0:10:23.98,0:10:27.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and stop our cruel treatment\Nof other creatures.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:27.94,0:10:31.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So how do we get all this without,\Nyou know, annihilating ourselves?
Dialogue: 0,0:10:32.09,0:10:35.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,First thing: like it or not,\Nsynbio is here,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:35.95,0:10:37.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so let's embrace the technology.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:37.86,0:10:39.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we do a tech ban,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:39.74,0:10:42.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that would only hand\Nthe wheel to bad actors.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:42.93,0:10:45.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Unlike nuclear programs,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:45.31,0:10:47.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,biology can be practiced invisibly.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:47.79,0:10:51.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Massive Soviet cheating\Non bioweapons treaties
Dialogue: 0,0:10:51.17,0:10:55.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,made that very clear, as does every\Nillegal drug lab in the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:55.82,0:10:58.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Secondly, enlist the experts.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:58.07,0:11:00.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's sign them up and make more of them.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:00.10,0:11:02.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For every million and one\Nbioengineers we have,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:02.75,0:11:06.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at least a million of them\Nare going to be on our side.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:06.86,0:11:09.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, Al Capone\Nwould be on our side in this one.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:09.70,0:11:12.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The bar to being a good guy\Nis just so low.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:13.39,0:11:16.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And massive numerical\Nadvantages do matter,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:16.69,0:11:19.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even when a single bad guy\Ncan inflict grievous harm,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:19.60,0:11:21.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because among many other things,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:21.20,0:11:23.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they allow us to exploit\Nthe hell out of this:
Dialogue: 0,0:11:23.74,0:11:29.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we have years and hopefully decades\Nto prepare and prevent.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:29.69,0:11:33.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The first person to try something awful --\Nand there will be somebody --
Dialogue: 0,0:11:33.20,0:11:34.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,may not even be born yet.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:35.07,0:11:38.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Next, this needs to be an effort\Nthat spans society,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:38.62,0:11:41.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and all of you need to be a part of it,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:41.42,0:11:45.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because we cannot ask\Na tiny group of experts
Dialogue: 0,0:11:45.61,0:11:50.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be responsible for both containing\Nand exploiting synthetic biology,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:50.77,0:11:53.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because we already tried that\Nwith the financial system,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:53.92,0:11:57.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and our stewards became\Nmassively corrupted
Dialogue: 0,0:11:57.46,0:11:59.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as they figured out\Nhow they could cut corners,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:59.72,0:12:02.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,inflict massive, massive risks\Non the rest of us
Dialogue: 0,0:12:02.76,0:12:04.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and privatize the gains,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:04.70,0:12:06.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,becoming repulsively wealthy
Dialogue: 0,0:12:06.79,0:12:09.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,while they stuck us\Nwith the $22 trillion bill.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:10.72,0:12:12.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And more recently --
Dialogue: 0,0:12:12.21,0:12:14.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)
Dialogue: 0,0:12:14.47,0:12:17.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Are you the ones who have gotten\Nthe thank-you letters?
Dialogue: 0,0:12:17.20,0:12:18.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm still waiting for mine.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:18.53,0:12:21.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I just figured they were\Ntoo busy to be grateful.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:21.31,0:12:23.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And much more recently,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:24.29,0:12:27.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,online privacy started looming\Nas a huge issue,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:27.63,0:12:29.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we basically outsourced it.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:29.60,0:12:30.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And once again:
Dialogue: 0,0:12:30.97,0:12:33.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,privatized gains, socialized losses.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:33.55,0:12:35.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Is anybody else sick of this pattern?
Dialogue: 0,0:12:35.64,0:12:40.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)
Dialogue: 0,0:12:40.29,0:12:46.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we need a more inclusive way\Nto safeguard our prosperity,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:46.27,0:12:47.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,our privacy
Dialogue: 0,0:12:47.45,0:12:49.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and soon, our lives.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:49.24,0:12:51.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So how do we do all of this?
Dialogue: 0,0:12:52.00,0:12:54.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, when bodies fight pathogens,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:54.69,0:12:57.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they use ingenious immune systems,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:57.12,0:12:59.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which are very complex and multilayered.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:59.18,0:13:02.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Why don't we build one of these\Nfor the whole damn ecosystem?
Dialogue: 0,0:13:02.15,0:13:05.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's a year of TED Talks that could\Nbe given on this first critical layer.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:05.84,0:13:09.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So these are just a couple\Nof many great ideas that are out there.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:09.34,0:13:11.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Some R and D muscle
Dialogue: 0,0:13:11.35,0:13:16.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,could take the very primitive\Npathogen sensors that we currently have
Dialogue: 0,0:13:16.31,0:13:19.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and put them on a very steep\Nprice performance curve
Dialogue: 0,0:13:19.16,0:13:21.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that would quickly become ingenious
Dialogue: 0,0:13:21.31,0:13:22.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and networked
Dialogue: 0,0:13:22.49,0:13:26.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and gradually as widespread\Nas smoke detectors and even smartphones.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:26.84,0:13:28.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,On a very related note:
Dialogue: 0,0:13:28.83,0:13:31.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,vaccines have all kinds of problems
Dialogue: 0,0:13:31.48,0:13:34.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when it comes to manufacturing\Nand distribution,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:34.53,0:13:39.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and once they're made, they can't adapt\Nto new threats or mutations.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:39.11,0:13:41.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We need an agile biomanufacturing base
Dialogue: 0,0:13:41.95,0:13:46.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,extending into every single pharmacy\Nand maybe even our homes.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:46.07,0:13:49.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Printer technology for vaccines\Nand medicines is within reach
Dialogue: 0,0:13:49.75,0:13:51.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if we prioritize it.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:51.76,0:13:53.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Next, mental health.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:53.85,0:13:56.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Many people who commit\Nsuicidal mass murder
Dialogue: 0,0:13:56.73,0:14:01.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,suffer from crippling,\Ntreatment-resistant depression or PTSD.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:01.24,0:14:05.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We need noble researchers\Nlike Rick Doblin working on this,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:05.33,0:14:09.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but we also need the selfish jerks\Nwho are way more numerous
Dialogue: 0,0:14:09.29,0:14:15.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to appreciate the fact that acute\Nsuffering will soon endanger all of us,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:15.34,0:14:17.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not just those afflicted.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:17.09,0:14:20.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those jerks will then\Njoin us and Al Capone
Dialogue: 0,0:14:20.57,0:14:22.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in fighting this condition.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:23.41,0:14:29.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Third, each and every one of us\Ncan be and should be a white blood cell
Dialogue: 0,0:14:29.05,0:14:30.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in this immune system.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:31.28,0:14:34.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Suicidal mass murderers\Ncan be despicable, yes,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:34.78,0:14:38.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they're also terribly\Nbroken and sad people,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:38.91,0:14:41.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and those of us who aren't\Nneed to do what we can
Dialogue: 0,0:14:41.36,0:14:43.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to make sure nobody goes unloved.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:44.57,0:14:49.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)
Dialogue: 0,0:14:49.71,0:14:52.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Next, we need to make\Nfighting these dangers
Dialogue: 0,0:14:52.30,0:14:55.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,core to the discipline\Nof synthetic biology.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:55.09,0:14:57.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are companies out there\Nthat at least claim
Dialogue: 0,0:14:57.48,0:15:00.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they let their engineers\Nspend 20 percent of their time
Dialogue: 0,0:15:00.40,0:15:01.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,doing whatever they want.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:01.82,0:15:04.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What if those who hire bioengineers
Dialogue: 0,0:15:04.50,0:15:05.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and become them
Dialogue: 0,0:15:05.69,0:15:09.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,give 20 percent of their time\Nto building defenses for the common good?
Dialogue: 0,0:15:11.40,0:15:12.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not a bad idea, right?
Dialogue: 0,0:15:12.79,0:15:14.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)
Dialogue: 0,0:15:14.03,0:15:16.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then, finally: this won't be any fun.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:16.70,0:15:20.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But we need to let our minds\Ngo to some very, very dark places,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:20.67,0:15:24.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and thank you for letting me\Ntake you there this evening.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:24.10,0:15:26.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We survived the Cold War
Dialogue: 0,0:15:26.50,0:15:30.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because every one of us understood\Nand respected the danger,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:30.87,0:15:33.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in part, because we had spent decades
Dialogue: 0,0:15:33.28,0:15:35.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,telling ourselves terrifying ghost stories
Dialogue: 0,0:15:35.78,0:15:37.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with names like "Dr. Strangelove"
Dialogue: 0,0:15:37.77,0:15:39.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and "War Games."
Dialogue: 0,0:15:39.41,0:15:41.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is no time to remain calm.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:41.73,0:15:44.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is one of those rare times\Nwhen it's incredibly productive
Dialogue: 0,0:15:44.82,0:15:47.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to freak the hell out --
Dialogue: 0,0:15:47.50,0:15:50.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:15:50.30,0:15:52.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to come up with some ghost stories
Dialogue: 0,0:15:52.42,0:15:57.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and use our fear as fuel\Nto fight this danger.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:57.77,0:16:01.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because, all these\Nterrible scenarios I've painted --
Dialogue: 0,0:16:01.85,0:16:03.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they are not destiny.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:04.17,0:16:05.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're optional.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:06.01,0:16:09.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The danger is still kind of distant.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:10.25,0:16:13.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that means it will only befall us
Dialogue: 0,0:16:13.03,0:16:15.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if we allow it to.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:15.95,0:16:17.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's not.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:17.17,0:16:18.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you very much for listening.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:18.91,0:16:23.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)