[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:01.38,0:00:05.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what if there were\Na highly obvious problem
Dialogue: 0,0:00:05.38,0:00:06.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,right in front of you?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:07.00,0:00:10.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One that everyone was talking about,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:10.17,0:00:12.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one that affected you directly.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:13.54,0:00:17.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Would you do everything\Nwithin your power to fix things
Dialogue: 0,0:00:17.88,0:00:19.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,before they got worse?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.67,0:00:22.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Don't be so sure.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:22.42,0:00:26.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We are all much more likely\Nthan any of us would like to admit
Dialogue: 0,0:00:26.88,0:00:29.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to miss what's right in front of our eyes.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.88,0:00:31.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in fact,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:31.33,0:00:35.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're sometimes most likely\Nto turn away from things
Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.08,0:00:39.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,precisely because of the threat\Nthat they represent to us,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.75,0:00:41.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in business, life and the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:43.12,0:00:47.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I want to give you an example\Nfrom my world, economic policy.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:48.71,0:00:52.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So when Alan Greenspan\Nwas head of the Federal Reserve,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.04,0:00:57.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,his entire job was to watch out\Nfor problems in the US economy
Dialogue: 0,0:00:57.54,0:01:00.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and to make sure that they\Ndidn't spin out of control.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:00.29,0:01:02.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, after 2006,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.25,0:01:04.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when real estate prices peaked,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:04.83,0:01:09.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more and more and more\Nrespected leaders and institutions
Dialogue: 0,0:01:09.46,0:01:12.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,started to sound the alarm bells
Dialogue: 0,0:01:12.08,0:01:16.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about risky lending\Nand dangerous market bubbles.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.25,0:01:21.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As you know, in 2008\Nit all came tumbling down.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.08,0:01:22.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Banks collapsed,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:22.67,0:01:25.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,global stock markets\Nlost nearly half their value,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.92,0:01:30.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,millions and millions of people\Nlost their homes to foreclosure.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:30.54,0:01:31.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And at the bottom,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.83,0:01:35.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,nearly one in 10 Americans\Nwas out of work.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:36.88,0:01:39.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So after things calmed down a little bit,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:39.25,0:01:43.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Greenspan and many others\Ncame out with a postmortem and said,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:44.00,0:01:46.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Nobody could have predicted that crisis."
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.79,0:01:49.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They called it "a black swan."
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.29,0:01:52.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Something that was unimaginable,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:52.12,0:01:56.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,unforeseeable and completely improbable.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.50,0:01:59.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A total surprise.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.54,0:02:03.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Except it wasn't always such a surprise.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.46,0:02:07.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example, my Manhattan apartment\Nnearly doubled in value
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.88,0:02:09.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in less than four years.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:09.96,0:02:13.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I saw the writing on the wall\Nand I sold it.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:13.25,0:02:15.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:02:15.88,0:02:18.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)
Dialogue: 0,0:02:19.79,0:02:22.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, a lot of other people\Nalso saw the warning,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:22.04,0:02:23.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,spoke out publicly
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.96,0:02:26.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they were ignored.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:26.96,0:02:31.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we didn't know exactly\Nwhat the crisis was going to look like,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:31.21,0:02:33.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not the exact parameters,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.25,0:02:35.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but we could all tell
Dialogue: 0,0:02:35.12,0:02:41.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the thing coming at us\Nwas as dangerous, visible and predictable
Dialogue: 0,0:02:41.50,0:02:44.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as a giant gray rhino\Ncharging right at us.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.79,0:02:47.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The black swan lends itself
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.83,0:02:51.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the idea that we don't have\Npower over our futures.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:52.75,0:02:57.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And unfortunately, the less control\Nthat we think we have,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:57.58,0:03:00.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the more likely we are to downplay it
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.71,0:03:02.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or ignore it entirely.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:04.46,0:03:08.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this dangerous dynamic\Nmasks another problem:
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.33,0:03:10.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that most of the problems\Nthat we're facing
Dialogue: 0,0:03:10.54,0:03:13.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are so probable and obvious,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.17,0:03:16.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they're things that we can see,\Nbut we still don't do anything about.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.79,0:03:20.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I created the gray rhino metaphor
Dialogue: 0,0:03:20.29,0:03:23.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to meet what I felt was an urgent need.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:23.38,0:03:25.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To help us to take a fresh look,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.92,0:03:28.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with the same passion\Nthat people had for the black swan,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.62,0:03:32.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but this time, for the things\Nthat were highly obvious,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:32.50,0:03:36.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,highly probable, but still neglected.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:38.54,0:03:41.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those are the gray rhinos.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:41.38,0:03:43.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Once you start looking for gray rhinos,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.71,0:03:46.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you see them in the headlines every day.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:47.25,0:03:50.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so what I see in the headlines\Nis another big gray rhino,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.00,0:03:55.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a new highly probable financial crisis.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.46,0:04:00.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I wonder if we've learned anything\Nin the last 10 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:00.33,0:04:03.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if you listen\Nto Washington or Wall Street,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:03.75,0:04:10.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you could almost be forgiven for thinking\Nthat only smooth sailing laid ahead.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:11.38,0:04:14.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But in China, where I spend a lot of time,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:14.50,0:04:17.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the conversation is totally different.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:17.42,0:04:19.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The entire economic team,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:19.67,0:04:22.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all the way up to president\NXi Jinping himself,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:22.67,0:04:25.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,talk very specifically and clearly
Dialogue: 0,0:04:25.42,0:04:29.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about financial risks as gray rhinos,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:29.29,0:04:31.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and how they can tame them.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:31.54,0:04:33.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, to be sure, China and the US
Dialogue: 0,0:04:33.17,0:04:35.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have very, very different\Nsystems of government,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:35.46,0:04:37.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which affects what\Nthey're able to do or not.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:37.79,0:04:40.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And many of the root causes\Nfor their economic problems
Dialogue: 0,0:04:40.62,0:04:41.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are totally different.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:42.00,0:04:45.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it's no secret\Nthat both countries have problems
Dialogue: 0,0:04:45.62,0:04:49.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with debt, with inequality\Nand with economic productivity.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:51.04,0:04:53.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So how come the conversations\Nare so different?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.17,0:04:56.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You could actually ask this question,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:56.04,0:04:58.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not just about countries,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:58.38,0:05:00.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but about just about everyone.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:00.71,0:05:04.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The auto companies that put safety first
Dialogue: 0,0:05:04.62,0:05:07.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the ones that don't bother\Nto recall their shoddy cars
Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.42,0:05:09.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,until after people die.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:12.42,0:05:17.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The grandparents who,\Nin preparing for the inevitable --
Dialogue: 0,0:05:17.92,0:05:19.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the ones who have the eulogy written,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:21.12,0:05:23.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the menu for the funeral lunch.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:23.04,0:05:24.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:05:24.54,0:05:25.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My grandparents did.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:25.88,0:05:27.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:05:27.38,0:05:32.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And everything but the final date\Nchiseled into the gravestone.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:32.50,0:05:34.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But then you have the grandparents\Non the other side,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.00,0:05:37.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who don't put\Ntheir final affairs in order,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:37.54,0:05:39.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who don't get rid of all the junk
Dialogue: 0,0:05:39.17,0:05:41.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they've been hoarding\Nfor decades and decades
Dialogue: 0,0:05:41.29,0:05:43.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and leave their kids to deal with it.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:44.21,0:05:48.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what makes the difference\Nbetween one side and the other?
Dialogue: 0,0:05:48.29,0:05:50.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Why do some people\Nsee things and deal with them,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:50.92,0:05:53.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the other ones just look away?
Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.96,0:05:58.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the first one has to do\Nwith culture, society,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:58.29,0:05:59.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the people around you.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.92,0:06:03.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you think that someone around you
Dialogue: 0,0:06:03.62,0:06:06.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is going to help\Npick you up when you fall,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:06.42,0:06:09.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you're much more likely\Nto see a danger as being smaller.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:10.54,0:06:15.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that allows us to take\Ngood chances, not just the bad ones.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:15.25,0:06:17.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example, like risking criticism
Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.67,0:06:21.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when you talk about the danger\Nthat nobody wants you to talk about.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:21.21,0:06:24.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or taking the opportunities\Nthat are kind of scary,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:24.12,0:06:27.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so in their own way are gray rhinos.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:27.42,0:06:31.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the US has a very\Nindividualist culture -- go it alone.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:32.12,0:06:33.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And paradoxically,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:33.75,0:06:37.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this makes many Americans\Nmuch less open to change
Dialogue: 0,0:06:37.50,0:06:39.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and taking good risks.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:39.08,0:06:41.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In China, by contrast,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:41.04,0:06:44.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,people believe that the government\Nis going to keep problems from happening,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:44.79,0:06:48.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which might not always be what happens,\Nbut people believe it.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:48.25,0:06:50.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They believe they can rely\Non their families,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:50.38,0:06:53.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so that makes them more likely\Nto take certain risks.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:53.42,0:06:55.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Like buying Beijing real estate,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:55.04,0:06:58.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or like being more open about the fact\Nthat they need to change direction,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:58.96,0:07:02.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in fact, the pace of change in China\Nis absolutely amazing.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.96,0:07:05.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Second of all,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:05.83,0:07:07.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how much do you know about a situation,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:08.00,0:07:09.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how much are you willing to learn?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:10.96,0:07:14.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And are you willing to see things\Neven when it's not what you want?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:14.71,0:07:17.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So many of us are so unlikely
Dialogue: 0,0:07:17.62,0:07:20.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to pay attention to the things\Nthat we just want to black out,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:20.92,0:07:22.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we don't like them.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:22.21,0:07:25.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We pay attention to what we want to see,\Nwhat we like, what we agree with.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:27.12,0:07:29.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But we have the opportunity\Nand the ability
Dialogue: 0,0:07:29.58,0:07:32.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to correct those blind spots.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:32.21,0:07:35.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I spend a lot of time\Ntalking with people of all walks of life
Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.50,0:07:38.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about the gray rhinos in their life\Nand their attitudes.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:38.54,0:07:40.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And you might think
Dialogue: 0,0:07:40.12,0:07:42.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the people\Nwho are more afraid of risk,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:42.62,0:07:44.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who are more sensitive to them,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:44.33,0:07:47.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would be the ones\Nwho would be less open to change.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:47.79,0:07:49.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the opposite is actually true.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:49.83,0:07:51.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I've found that the people
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.17,0:07:53.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who are wiling to recognize\Nthe problems around them
Dialogue: 0,0:07:53.67,0:07:55.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and make plans
Dialogue: 0,0:07:55.04,0:07:58.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are the ones who are able\Nto tolerate more risk, good risk,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.62,0:08:01.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and deal with the bad risk.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:01.29,0:08:04.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's because as we seek information,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:04.29,0:08:08.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we increase our power to do something\Nabout the things that we're afraid of.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:09.71,0:08:11.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that brings me to my third point.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:11.83,0:08:15.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How much control do you feel that you have
Dialogue: 0,0:08:15.25,0:08:17.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over the gray rhinos in your life?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:18.17,0:08:20.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One of the reasons we don't act
Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.33,0:08:23.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that we often feel too helpless.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:23.12,0:08:26.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Think of climate change,\Nit can feel so big,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:26.08,0:08:30.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that not a single one of us\Ncould make a difference.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:30.12,0:08:32.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So some people go about life denying it.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:32.79,0:08:35.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Other people blame everyone\Nexcept themselves.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:36.00,0:08:38.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Like my friend who says\Nhe's not ever going to give up his SUV
Dialogue: 0,0:08:38.96,0:08:41.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,until they stop building\Ncoal plants in China.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:41.17,0:08:44.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But we have an opportunity to change.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:44.58,0:08:46.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No two of us are the same.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:46.75,0:08:51.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Every single one of us has the opportunity\Nto change our attitudes,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:51.67,0:08:54.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,our own and those of people around us.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:54.42,0:08:57.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So today, I want to invite all of you
Dialogue: 0,0:08:57.67,0:09:02.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to join me in helping to spark\Nan open and honest conversation
Dialogue: 0,0:09:02.38,0:09:03.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with the people around you,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.88,0:09:07.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about the gray rhinos in our world,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:07.25,0:09:11.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and be brutally honest\Nabout how well we're dealing with them.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:11.21,0:09:13.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I hear so many times in the States,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:13.88,0:09:16.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Well, of course we should\Ndeal with obvious problems,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.58,0:09:18.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but if you don't see\Nwhat's in front of you,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:18.67,0:09:20.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you're either dumb or ignorant."
Dialogue: 0,0:09:20.83,0:09:24.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's what they say,\Nand I could not disagree more.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:24.62,0:09:27.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you don't see what's in front of you,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:27.33,0:09:30.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you're not dumb, you're not ignorant,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:30.62,0:09:32.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you're human.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:32.33,0:09:37.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And once we all recognize\Nthat shared vulnerability,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:37.58,0:09:41.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that gives us the power to open our eyes,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:42.00,0:09:43.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to see what's in front of us
Dialogue: 0,0:09:43.96,0:09:47.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and to act before we get trampled.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:49.21,0:09:52.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)