[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:08.44,0:00:09.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Good, good!
Dialogue: 0,0:00:09.70,0:00:14.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, back in the early 1990s,\NI was a training commercial pilot
Dialogue: 0,0:00:14.28,0:00:19.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with hair that probably produced more lift\Nthan most of the small aircrafts I flew.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:19.74,0:00:21.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:00:21.14,0:00:24.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Anyway, one day,\Nmy instructor Bob came out,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:24.20,0:00:28.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he said, "Ash, today, I'm going\Nto instruct you in instrument flying."
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.58,0:00:32.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This was pretty exciting\Nbecause there are two flavors of flying.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:32.96,0:00:34.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's "visual" where you can see
Dialogue: 0,0:00:34.94,0:00:37.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the horizon ahead of you\Nand what's below you,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:37.64,0:00:40.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is kind of for the rookie\Npilots and weekend pilots.\N
Dialogue: 0,0:00:40.62,0:00:42.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then there's "instrument flying."
Dialogue: 0,0:00:43.02,0:00:45.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Instrument flying\Nis for the professionals.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:46.06,0:00:48.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's being able\Nto punch into the clouds.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:48.09,0:00:50.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I was pretty excited about this.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:51.05,0:00:54.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Anyway, we went out,\Nwe did our preflight briefing
Dialogue: 0,0:00:54.76,0:00:58.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and grabbed a little Cessna 152,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.53,0:01:01.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,took off, went out\Nto the southern training area,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:01.25,0:01:03.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,got set up at 5,000 feet.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:04.30,0:01:06.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And Bob whacked this on me.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:06.34,0:01:08.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:01:09.08,0:01:13.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This little plastic contraption\Nis known as "the hood,"
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.22,0:01:17.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it constrains the pilot's\Nview to their six instruments.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:19.16,0:01:21.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Bob said, "Okay, now I want\Nyou to fly straight and level
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.90,0:01:23.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just by instruments."
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.78,0:01:26.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I did that, it was pretty easy.\NI was pretty good at this stuff.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:26.96,0:01:28.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:01:29.47,0:01:31.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then he said, "Okay, you did well Ash.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.47,0:01:35.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I want you to maintain 5,000 feet\Nand perform a standard right turn."
Dialogue: 0,0:01:35.78,0:01:37.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, this was a bit more difficult.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.48,0:01:40.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I had to organize to work\Nthe pedals and the controls.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:40.90,0:01:43.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At the same time, I was\Nscanning all these instruments
Dialogue: 0,0:01:43.44,0:01:49.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,without the wealth of information\Nfrom the visual sphere outside.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.93,0:01:53.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I got it. It was pretty good.\NI was feeling pretty cocky.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:53.72,0:01:55.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And he said, "Okay, done well.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:55.70,0:01:57.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Roll out of that\Ninto straight and level again."
Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.94,0:02:00.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I rolled out into straight and level.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:01.22,0:02:05.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But my artificial horizon\Nwasn't quite right.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:06.08,0:02:07.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was a bit off.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:08.01,0:02:10.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I looked over\Nat my turn and slip indicator
Dialogue: 0,0:02:10.19,0:02:12.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the ball was out of it,\Nso I kicked in a bit of rudder.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.97,0:02:14.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My directional gyro started moving.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:15.08,0:02:19.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was flying straight and level,\Nbut my instruments were failing.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:19.45,0:02:21.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The altimeter started rising.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.45,0:02:23.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Directional gyro was spinning faster.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:23.67,0:02:27.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The artificial horizon\Njust slipped right off,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:27.05,0:02:30.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the whole dial,\Nand Bob whipped my hood off.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:32.43,0:02:37.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'd entered what is known\Nas "the graveyard spiral."
Dialogue: 0,0:02:38.45,0:02:40.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now in a recent study,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:40.55,0:02:44.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the average pilot\Nwith no instrument flight training,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:44.93,0:02:48.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,punching into clouds\Nlasts a mere 178 seconds.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:49.49,0:02:52.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's two seconds shy of three minutes\N
Dialogue: 0,0:02:52.53,0:02:55.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,before spiraling to their death.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.79,0:03:01.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Fair enough, my vestibular\Nsenses had tricked me.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:01.18,0:03:04.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The sense that tells me\Nwhich way is up, had tricked me,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:04.61,0:03:06.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and Bob got me good with it.\N
Dialogue: 0,0:03:06.80,0:03:08.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Bob taught me a good lesson.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.62,0:03:11.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Next time I'll know:\Ntrust the instruments.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:11.61,0:03:14.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we went up for the next lesson,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:14.31,0:03:15.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I failed,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:15.64,0:03:19.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the next lesson, and the next lesson.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:20.40,0:03:22.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This was frustrating me.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:22.17,0:03:25.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I considered myself\Na good, confident pilot.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.58,0:03:28.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yet I couldn't accept\Nthe evidence in front of me.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:29.26,0:03:31.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My intuition took over every time.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:31.25,0:03:34.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My brain kept on making up these excuses:
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.49,0:03:38.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Oh, this aircraft has\Na dodgy vacuum pump."
Dialogue: 0,0:03:38.07,0:03:42.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"The static intakes\Non these little tomahawks
Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.04,0:03:44.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,always blocks up,\Nthe instruments are failing."
Dialogue: 0,0:03:44.78,0:03:50.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I knew the instruments weren't failing,\Nbut I couldn't seem to accept it.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.84,0:03:55.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's amazing where we're\Noften taught or told
Dialogue: 0,0:03:55.75,0:03:58.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how wonderful and powerful\N
Dialogue: 0,0:03:58.66,0:04:02.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the hundred billion or so neurons\Nthat make up our mind are.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:02.92,0:04:07.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yet, we rarely discuss the cognitive\Nshortcomings that we have.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:08.04,0:04:11.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, at school I was\Ntaught how the mind works.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:11.63,0:04:15.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's very much like\Na modern laptop computer.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.13,0:04:18.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You have your high definition video camera
Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.62,0:04:21.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and your mic that takes\Nin everything around you.\N
Dialogue: 0,0:04:22.04,0:04:26.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You've got everything then\Nstored to memory, bit for bit,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:26.79,0:04:30.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,perfectly written to data\Non your hard drive.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:31.08,0:04:35.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And our brains process things\Nin a very logical fashion,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:35.53,0:04:39.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like we should all have Intel Inside\Nstickers on our foreheads.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:41.16,0:04:43.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the metaphor that's used,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:43.64,0:04:45.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it's not a very good metaphor.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:45.59,0:04:48.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, it's completely wrong.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:49.44,0:04:54.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You see, our senses aren't like\Nhigh-def recording equipment.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.93,0:04:57.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We only take in snippets\Nof the information,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:57.82,0:05:00.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and our mind fills in the gaps for us.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.35,0:05:03.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As a pilot we're taught\Na whole lot of tips and tricks
Dialogue: 0,0:05:03.87,0:05:06.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to get around human limitations.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:06.79,0:05:11.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Things like when we want \Nto find an aircraft in the sky,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:12.18,0:05:14.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we've got to break it up into quadrants.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:14.12,0:05:18.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You see, our eyes only see\Nthis much clearly at any one time.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:18.39,0:05:21.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's hard to grasp,\Nbut this is what we see.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:21.98,0:05:24.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our eyes dart around\Nat a thousand degrees a second,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:24.94,0:05:26.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that what's called "a saccade."
Dialogue: 0,0:05:27.33,0:05:30.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our mind fills in the rest of the picture\Nwith what it expects to see there.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:31.03,0:05:35.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if you're looking up at the sky,\Nit expects to see a lot of blue.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.60,0:05:38.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You have to actually break\Nup the sky into quadrants\N
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.39,0:05:43.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and saccade across\Nuntil the aircraft lands
Dialogue: 0,0:05:43.38,0:05:47.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,within the focus of those saccades,\Nbefore you'll see the aircraft.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:48.60,0:05:50.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's not just our visual\Nsenses that work like this.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:50.80,0:05:53.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,All of our senses work like this.\N
Dialogue: 0,0:05:53.89,0:05:57.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our mind just fills in the gaps for us\Nwithout us being aware of it.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:58.33,0:06:00.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's why illusions work.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:01.38,0:06:07.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's why Simon takes great delight\Nin knowing how your perception works
Dialogue: 0,0:06:07.44,0:06:11.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and being able to fool you,\Nbeing able to manipulate that.\N
Dialogue: 0,0:06:12.31,0:06:15.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And up here, it doesn't\Ntake in everything.\N
Dialogue: 0,0:06:16.00,0:06:18.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It doesn't store everything to memory.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:19.44,0:06:24.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It takes snippets,\Nlittle grabs of feelings,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:24.52,0:06:28.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of sights, sounds,\Ntastes, smells, emotions.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:29.25,0:06:32.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then it pieces them together\Nwhen you recall a memory.\N
Dialogue: 0,0:06:32.92,0:06:37.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When it pieces them together,\Nit makes up the bits in between again.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:37.88,0:06:39.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It creates a movie,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:40.12,0:06:43.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,only the movie is based on a true story.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:44.40,0:06:48.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The next time you recall that same event,\Nyou're recalling it from that memory,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:48.69,0:06:51.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,taking snippets of that memory\Nand piecing it together again.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:52.31,0:06:56.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So next time, it's actually\Nmore like a screenplay
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.60,0:06:59.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,based on a book based on a true story.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.64,0:07:03.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Each time you remember\Nsomething, it changes a bit more.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.52,0:07:05.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It takes one more step away from reality,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:05.80,0:07:09.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even if it feels like you\Nremember it clear as day.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:11.40,0:07:15.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And our cognitions, the way\Nwe think, they're adapted.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:15.10,0:07:20.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We evolved to be really good\Nat surviving in small social groups,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:21.61,0:07:24.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for being able to match patterns,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:24.22,0:07:28.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for being able to keep track\Nof social relationships -
Dialogue: 0,0:07:28.95,0:07:30.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not very good at logic though.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:32.85,0:07:35.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That horrible feeling I experienced
Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.21,0:07:40.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when I couldn't get my instinct
Dialogue: 0,0:07:40.68,0:07:42.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to match up with\Nthe evidence in front of me,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:42.90,0:07:45.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's known as "cognitive dissonance."
Dialogue: 0,0:07:45.77,0:07:47.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now cognitive dissonance
Dialogue: 0,0:07:47.82,0:07:52.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is when your mind tries to hold\Ntwo conflicting ideas simultaneously.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:52.61,0:07:55.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It gives you a horrible feeling.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:55.29,0:07:58.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It'll be a negative feeling,\Nit'll be feeling sick.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.60,0:08:02.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It'll be feeling anxious or even angry.\N
Dialogue: 0,0:08:03.96,0:08:06.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Cognitive dissonance is the mechanism
Dialogue: 0,0:08:06.31,0:08:11.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by which we start being\Nable to, I don't know,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:11.07,0:08:15.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,account for irrational\Nbehaviors like smoking.\N
Dialogue: 0,0:08:15.34,0:08:19.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I've got a friend Janine,\Nvery warm, intelligent lady.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.30,0:08:24.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,She's very smart. She works\Nas an intensive care nurse.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:25.51,0:08:28.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Everyday, she's looking after people\Nwith throat cancer and lung cancer
Dialogue: 0,0:08:28.99,0:08:31.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who are dying from smoking.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:31.33,0:08:35.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,She knows the damage\Nthat it causes, yet she smokes.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:36.20,0:08:38.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I asked her why,\Nshe sat me down and said,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:38.30,0:08:42.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Ash, I need to explain\Nthis to you: I'm a nurse.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:42.59,0:08:45.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I work long irregular hours.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:45.71,0:08:49.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don't get to exercise.\NI don't get to eat well.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:50.20,0:08:53.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Smoking helps me keep down my weight!
Dialogue: 0,0:08:53.20,0:08:54.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:08:56.07,0:09:00.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You think there are problems with people\Nwho have smoked for a long time,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:00.04,0:09:03.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you should see the long-term\Nproblems of obesity."
Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.43,0:09:07.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So just like that, she'd rationalized away
Dialogue: 0,0:09:07.32,0:09:10.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,her behavior with her knowledge.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:12.58,0:09:15.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Cognitive dissonance\Ndoes this in a number of ways.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.65,0:09:20.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Also, it's a great protector\Nof our self-concept.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:20.92,0:09:23.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What we think of as
Dialogue: 0,0:09:23.10,0:09:27.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"I'm a good, moral, intelligent\Nperson," that self-concept,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:27.69,0:09:29.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it protects it for us.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:32.30,0:09:37.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This guy will never admit\Nthat he was wrong about invading Iraq,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:38.68,0:09:40.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not because he's evil,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:41.16,0:09:46.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it's because he really thinks\Nhe wasn't wrong about invading Iraq.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.10,0:09:53.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He thinks of himself\Nas a good moral Christian.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.91,0:09:55.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He was president of the United States.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:55.63,0:09:59.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He was leader of the free world.\NHe was the good guys.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:01.37,0:10:05.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Unfortunately, he also\Nset up the perfect context
Dialogue: 0,0:10:07.36,0:10:09.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for making bad decisions.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:09.03,0:10:11.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You see, George Bush\Nwas well-known
Dialogue: 0,0:10:11.31,0:10:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to fire or demote anyone\Nwho disagreed with his opinions.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:16.47,0:10:20.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So he cocooned himself,\Nsurrounded himself with yes-men.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:20.42,0:10:23.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He protected himself\Nfrom cognitive dissonance.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:23.07,0:10:28.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So when he decided that there must\Nbe weapons of mass destruction in Iraq,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:28.58,0:10:32.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all his cronies went out\Nand scoured the intelligence reports,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:32.06,0:10:34.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,picking up the most tenuous\Nlittle bits of information
Dialogue: 0,0:10:34.67,0:10:38.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and stringing them together\Nto feed his belief
Dialogue: 0,0:10:38.05,0:10:40.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that there were weapons\Nof mass destruction.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:42.56,0:10:45.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's what is known\Nas "confirmation bias,"
Dialogue: 0,0:10:45.86,0:10:48.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,seeking confirming\Nevidence of our beliefs
Dialogue: 0,0:10:48.31,0:10:54.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and disregarding or minimizing\Nthe impact of disconfirming evidence.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:54.64,0:10:56.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's just one of the mechanisms.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:56.77,0:10:59.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's one of the most common\Nmechanisms that our brain uses
Dialogue: 0,0:10:59.37,0:11:02.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to protect us from cognitive dissonance.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:03.26,0:11:08.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it's just one of many,\Nmany biases that we have.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:08.35,0:11:12.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, you may be\Nexperiencing one right now.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:16.22,0:11:19.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now these biases build up.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:20.92,0:11:22.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:11:22.59,0:11:24.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's why you're meant to be seeing.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:25.02,0:11:30.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These biases build up and attack\Nour ability to reason logically.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:31.00,0:11:32.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And people take advantage of this.\N
Dialogue: 0,0:11:32.99,0:11:36.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Whole industries,\Nbillion-dollar industries,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:36.46,0:11:39.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are wrapped around our faulty reasoning.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:40.28,0:11:42.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Things like cosmetics,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:42.80,0:11:45.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,anti-aging creams.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:45.72,0:11:47.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You're right!
Dialogue: 0,0:11:49.00,0:11:53.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Vitamins and supplements,\Nwell, you urinate them all out.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:53.11,0:11:54.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They don't boost your immune system.\N
Dialogue: 0,0:11:54.82,0:11:59.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If they did boost your immune system,\Nyou'd have an autoimmune disease.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:02.31,0:12:06.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Alternative health practices,\Naligning your energies,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:06.75,0:12:08.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we got rid of that concept
Dialogue: 0,0:12:08.26,0:12:11.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when we discovered\Nthe central nervous system.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:12.70,0:12:14.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Just the other day,\NI was on a train in Melbourne
Dialogue: 0,0:12:15.02,0:12:18.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I spotted a young guy in a suit.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:19.12,0:12:23.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He was wearing one of these,\Nit's a power band bracelet.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:28.32,0:12:32.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The makers of Power Balance claim
Dialogue: 0,0:12:32.95,0:12:37.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that this piece of silicon\Nwith a sticker on it
Dialogue: 0,0:12:37.05,0:12:39.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will make you stronger and more flexible.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:39.42,0:12:43.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now on face value,\Nthat is laughable, it's silly,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:43.30,0:12:47.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but he probably didn't come to this belief\Nfrom a claim like this.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:47.43,0:12:51.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He probably came to it from seeing\None of his sports stars wearing it,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:51.96,0:12:55.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then noticing other\Ntop athletes wearing it.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:56.52,0:12:58.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These things have to chip away.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:59.72,0:13:03.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now Power Balance is smart\Nenough to give away these
Dialogue: 0,0:13:03.07,0:13:08.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to every top athlete they can\Nand sponsor key top athletes to wear them.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:09.52,0:13:11.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So he's had this.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:11.100,0:13:15.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He has formed an idea,\Nand he goes and searches online.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:16.17,0:13:19.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Power Balance has littered\NYouTube and blogs
Dialogue: 0,0:13:20.00,0:13:22.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with testimonials and demonstrations\N
Dialogue: 0,0:13:22.73,0:13:26.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,much like they have used\Nfor years in martial arts
Dialogue: 0,0:13:26.14,0:13:28.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in applied kinesiology,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:28.87,0:13:33.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a simple trick to show\Nthat it makes you more balanced.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:36.13,0:13:38.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So he probably saw this stuff,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:38.31,0:13:41.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that was the confirmation bias\Nbuilding up the belief,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:41.08,0:13:44.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then he went out\Nand spent 60 hard dollars
Dialogue: 0,0:13:44.80,0:13:48.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on a rubber band with a sticker on it.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:49.42,0:13:51.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That cemented his belief even further.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:51.72,0:13:55.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People then asked him,\N"Does that work for you?"
Dialogue: 0,0:13:55.20,0:13:56.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And he would recall a time
Dialogue: 0,0:13:56.92,0:13:59.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when he performed\Na bit better than normal,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:00.48,0:14:04.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and not recall the times\Nwhen it was average or below average.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:05.89,0:14:07.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,More confirmation bias!
Dialogue: 0,0:14:07.35,0:14:08.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When more people asked him,\N
Dialogue: 0,0:14:08.90,0:14:12.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he would keep recalling those same\Nevents of better performance,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:12.48,0:14:18.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,except those events would now\Nget even better, and even better,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:18.32,0:14:20.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,making it legendary performance.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:22.29,0:14:28.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So his Power Balance bracelet\Nis working, it is good.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:30.02,0:14:31.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then someone might\Ncome up to him and say,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:31.100,0:14:35.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"You realize that they actually did\Nsome scientific tests.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:35.21,0:14:39.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Double blind showed\Nthat it's just a rubber band."
Dialogue: 0,0:14:41.04,0:14:45.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"- Science doesn't know everything.\NDon't be so closed minded.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:45.21,0:14:48.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You got to try it to understand!"
Dialogue: 0,0:14:48.98,0:14:51.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These are the types of things\Npeople will come up with
Dialogue: 0,0:14:51.53,0:14:54.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when their mind is painted into a corner.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:56.00,0:14:57.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's not just that.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:57.88,0:15:01.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When you come up against a hard\Nor an unwinnable argument,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:01.68,0:15:04.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,cognitive dissonance can cause anger.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:05.11,0:15:08.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If that argument\Nis unwinnable on both sides,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:08.70,0:15:10.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it escalates to rage.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:11.45,0:15:14.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It can escalate to ideological wars,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:14.84,0:15:19.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,people fighting to the death\Ntrying to prove their point,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:20.70,0:15:25.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,trying to prove that their imagining frame\Nis the real one, not yours.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:27.89,0:15:30.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not all doom and gloom\Nthough, there is hope.\N
Dialogue: 0,0:15:31.24,0:15:33.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Science is testament to that.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:33.11,0:15:36.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now when you say "science," people\Nhave the wrong idea a lot of the times.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:36.73,0:15:41.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Science isn't a person\Nor a thing, an organization.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:42.23,0:15:45.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Science is simply a process.\N
Dialogue: 0,0:15:45.89,0:15:51.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a process that was designed\Nspecifically to overcome our biases.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:52.64,0:15:54.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And as well as that process,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:54.40,0:15:58.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's also the body of knowledge\Nthat results from the process.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:58.60,0:16:01.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The process is just known\Nas "scientific method."
Dialogue: 0,0:16:01.04,0:16:04.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's simply down to making a prediction,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:04.50,0:16:06.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,testing that prediction,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:07.47,0:16:09.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then coming up with your conclusions,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:09.55,0:16:13.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but most importantly being transparent\Nabout how you did it all
Dialogue: 0,0:16:13.13,0:16:15.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so other people\Ncan pick apart your arguments,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:15.98,0:16:21.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,other people can test and see\Nif you reasoned correctly.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:22.44,0:16:24.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a very important part of it.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:25.54,0:16:30.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And enough people, like Temple said,\Nenough people are working on this.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:31.24,0:16:34.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They spend their whole lifetimes\Ndoing small detailed work,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:34.94,0:16:37.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,making tiny little\Nincrements in knowledge.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:37.72,0:16:40.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's none of these eureka\Nmoments that you hear about.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:41.11,0:16:43.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's tiny increments but it all goes\Ninto a pool of knowledge.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:43.88,0:16:45.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And because of that pool of knowledge,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:45.52,0:16:50.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in medicine alone, I've never\Nseen a child with smallpox.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:50.26,0:16:53.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I've never seen a child\Nafflicted by polio.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:54.38,0:16:59.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I've never had a loved one\Ndie of measles or diptheria.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:59.50,0:17:04.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These killed millions of people\Nuntil we figured out vaccines for them.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:04.93,0:17:09.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And closer to home,\Nthis old fellow, my dad.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:09.60,0:17:13.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I should have lost him,\Ntwice in the last 15 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:13.90,0:17:18.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He actually had a tube\Nfed through his groin
Dialogue: 0,0:17:18.22,0:17:22.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a balloon pulled through his heart\Nto flatten the fatty deposits in there,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:22.97,0:17:26.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,saving him from having\Nanother massive heart attack.\N
Dialogue: 0,0:17:27.05,0:17:33.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He also had tuberculosis injected\Ninto his bladder a number of times
Dialogue: 0,0:17:33.06,0:17:35.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to kill the cancer\Nthat was growing there.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:35.78,0:17:40.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just recent advances in science\Nthat kept him around with me today.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:41.17,0:17:43.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's not just in the area of health
Dialogue: 0,0:17:43.40,0:17:46.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that this way of thinking\Nis useful for us.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:46.90,0:17:51.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Getting rid of these misunderstandings,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:51.48,0:17:55.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,actually knowing about your\Nbrain and how it's tricking you,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:55.24,0:17:59.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,compensating for cognitive\Ndissonance and cognitive biases ;
Dialogue: 0,0:17:59.52,0:18:02.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's everything, any\Ntype of decision making
Dialogue: 0,0:18:02.49,0:18:05.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from deciding on a consumer product,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:05.83,0:18:09.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,fighting with your partner,\Nto public policy ;
Dialogue: 0,0:18:09.73,0:18:11.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,accounting for all these cognitive biases
Dialogue: 0,0:18:11.91,0:18:15.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and being open about how\Nyou reach your conclusions\N
Dialogue: 0,0:18:16.21,0:18:19.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is a useful and powerful thing,\Nand we should start with the schools.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:19.50,0:18:23.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We should start getting rid of these\Noutdated metaphors for how we think,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:23.25,0:18:26.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and teach kids how we actually do think.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:27.13,0:18:30.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we can do that,\Nthey'll appreciate science more.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:33.14,0:18:35.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Just like when I was a pilot,\N
Dialogue: 0,0:18:35.36,0:18:38.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it was hard for me\Nto get over this whole thing.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:39.40,0:18:42.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There was many white-knuckled,\Nsweat-soaked flights
Dialogue: 0,0:18:42.44,0:18:45.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for me to be able to get over
Dialogue: 0,0:18:45.32,0:18:49.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,my own internal battle\Nand trust my instruments.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:49.81,0:18:52.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can all actually go\Nthrough this process.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:52.33,0:18:57.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can all learn not to start\Nwith conclusions and find evidence.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:57.19,0:19:02.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can learn to start with evidence,\Nevaluate it, and come to a conclusion.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:03.30,0:19:05.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can all learn to use\Nour brains more effectively
Dialogue: 0,0:19:05.91,0:19:09.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I think that's\Nan idea worth spreading.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:10.03,0:19:11.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thanks.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:11.31,0:19:12.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)