[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.71,0:00:03.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Back in 2003,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:03.83,0:00:06.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the UK government carried out a survey.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:07.49,0:00:10.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it was a survey that measured\Nlevels of numeracy
Dialogue: 0,0:00:10.67,0:00:11.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the population.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:11.93,0:00:13.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they were shocked to find out
Dialogue: 0,0:00:13.60,0:00:16.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that for every 100 working age\Nadults in the country,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:16.98,0:00:20.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,47 of them lacked Level 1 numeracy skills.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.89,0:00:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, Level 1 numeracy skills --\Nthat's low-end GCSE score.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.41,0:00:28.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's the ability to deal with fractions,\Npercentages and decimals.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:28.68,0:00:33.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this figure prompted\Na lot of hand-wringing in Whitehall.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:33.33,0:00:34.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Policies were changed,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:34.99,0:00:36.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,investments were made,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.73,0:00:39.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then they ran\Nthe survey again in 2011.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.79,0:00:41.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So can you guess\Nwhat happened to this number?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:44.02,0:00:45.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It went up to 49.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:45.49,0:00:46.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:00:46.96,0:00:49.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in fact, when I reported\Nthis figure in the FT,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:49.44,0:00:51.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one of our readers joked and said,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:51.13,0:00:54.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"This figure is only shocking\Nto 51 percent of the population."
Dialogue: 0,0:00:54.92,0:00:57.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:00:57.22,0:01:00.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I preferred, actually,\Nthe reaction of a schoolchild
Dialogue: 0,0:01:00.41,0:01:03.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when I presented\Nat a school this information,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.52,0:01:05.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who raised their hand and said,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.08,0:01:07.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"How do we know that the person\Nwho made that number
Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.62,0:01:09.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,isn't one of the 49 percent either?"
Dialogue: 0,0:01:09.46,0:01:10.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.74,0:01:14.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So clearly, there's a numeracy issue,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:14.81,0:01:16.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because these are\Nimportant skills for life,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:16.94,0:01:20.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a lot of the changes\Nthat we want to introduce in this century
Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.84,0:01:23.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,involve us becoming\Nmore comfortable with numbers.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.30,0:01:25.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, it's not just an English problem.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.17,0:01:30.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,OECD this year released some figures\Nlooking at numeracy in young people,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:30.13,0:01:32.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and leading the way, the USA --
Dialogue: 0,0:01:32.93,0:01:37.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,nearly 40 percent of young people\Nin the US have low numeracy.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.62,0:01:38.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, England is there too,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:38.95,0:01:44.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but there are seven OECD countries\Nwith figures above 20 percent.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:44.50,0:01:47.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That is a problem,\Nbecause it doesn't have to be that way.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:47.29,0:01:49.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you look at the far end of this graph,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.32,0:01:52.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can see the Netherlands and Korea\Nare in single figures.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:52.30,0:01:56.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So there's definitely a numeracy\Nproblem that we want to address.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.51,0:02:00.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, as useful as studies like these are,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:00.46,0:02:05.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think we risk herding people\Ninadvertently into one of two categories;
Dialogue: 0,0:02:05.89,0:02:07.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that there are two kinds of people:
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.69,0:02:12.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,those people that are comfortable\Nwith numbers, that can do numbers,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.06,0:02:14.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the people who can't.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:14.32,0:02:16.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what I'm trying\Nto talk about here today
Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.45,0:02:19.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is to say that I believe\Nthat is a false dichotomy.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:19.51,0:02:21.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not an immutable pairing.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.40,0:02:25.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think you don't have to have\Ntremendously high levels of numeracy
Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.08,0:02:26.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be inspired by numbers,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:26.83,0:02:29.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that should be the starting point\Nto the journey ahead.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.39,0:02:34.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And one of the ways in which\Nwe can begin that journey, for me,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:34.72,0:02:36.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is looking at statistics.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.47,0:02:39.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I am the first to acknowledge\Nthat statistics has got somewhat
Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.99,0:02:41.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of an image problem.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:41.33,0:02:42.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:02:42.40,0:02:43.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's the part of mathematics
Dialogue: 0,0:02:43.96,0:02:47.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that even mathematicians\Ndon't particularly like,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.04,0:02:51.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because whereas the rest of maths\Nis all about precision and certainty,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.08,0:02:53.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,statistics is almost the reverse of that.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:53.79,0:02:58.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But actually, I was a late convert\Nto the world of statistics myself.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:58.47,0:03:00.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you'd asked my undergraduate professors
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.58,0:03:05.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what two subjects would I be least likely\Nto excel in after university,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.36,0:03:08.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they'd have told you statistics\Nand computer programming,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.15,0:03:11.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and yet here I am, about to show you\Nsome statistical graphics
Dialogue: 0,0:03:11.12,0:03:12.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that I programmed.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.74,0:03:14.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what inspired that change in me?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:14.52,0:03:18.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What made me think that statistics\Nwas actually an interesting thing?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:18.20,0:03:20.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's really because\Nstatistics are about us.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:20.87,0:03:23.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you look at the etymology\Nof the word statistics,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:23.48,0:03:26.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's the science of dealing with data
Dialogue: 0,0:03:26.11,0:03:28.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about the state or the community\Nthat we live in.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.56,0:03:31.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So statistics are about us as a group,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:31.94,0:03:33.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not us as individuals.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:33.64,0:03:35.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I think as social animals,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:35.13,0:03:39.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we share this fascination about how\Nwe as individuals relate to our groups,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:39.10,0:03:40.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to our peers.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:40.51,0:03:43.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And statistics in this way\Nare at their most powerful
Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.65,0:03:44.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when they surprise us.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:45.48,0:03:48.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there's been some really wonderful\Nsurveys carried out recently
Dialogue: 0,0:03:48.71,0:03:50.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by Ipsos MORI in the last few years.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:50.45,0:03:53.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They did a survey of over\N1,000 adults in the UK,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:53.18,0:03:56.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and said, for every 100 people\Nin England and Wales,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.98,0:03:58.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how many of them are Muslim?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:58.88,0:04:01.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now the average answer from this survey,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.55,0:04:04.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which was supposed to be representative\Nof the total population, was 24.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.98,0:04:08.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's what people thought.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:08.68,0:04:12.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,British people think 24 out of every 100\Npeople in the country are Muslim.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:12.34,0:04:16.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, official figures reveal\Nthat figure to be about five.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:17.73,0:04:21.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So there's this big variation\Nbetween what we think, our perception,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:21.74,0:04:23.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the reality as given by statistics.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.80,0:04:25.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I think that's interesting.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:25.37,0:04:28.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What could possibly be causing\Nthat misperception?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:29.21,0:04:31.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I was so thrilled with this study,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:31.09,0:04:34.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I started to take questions out\Nin presentations. I was referring to it.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:34.59,0:04:35.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I did a presentation
Dialogue: 0,0:04:35.84,0:04:38.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at St. Paul's School for Girls\Nin Hammersmith,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:38.17,0:04:40.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I had an audience rather like this,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:40.33,0:04:44.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,except it was comprised entirely\Nof sixth-form girls.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.23,0:04:46.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I said, "Girls,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:47.60,0:04:52.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how many teenage girls do you think\Nthe British public think
Dialogue: 0,0:04:52.16,0:04:53.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,get pregnant every year?"
Dialogue: 0,0:04:53.94,0:04:56.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the girls were apoplectic when I said
Dialogue: 0,0:04:57.45,0:05:01.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the British public think that 15\Nout of every 100 teenage girls
Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.39,0:05:02.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,get pregnant in the year.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:03.43,0:05:05.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they had every right to be angry,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.68,0:05:08.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because in fact, I'd have to have\Ncloser to 200 dots
Dialogue: 0,0:05:08.47,0:05:10.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,before I could color one in,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.06,0:05:12.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in terms of what\Nthe official figures tell us.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:12.60,0:05:16.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And rather like numeracy,\Nthis is not just an English problem.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:16.42,0:05:20.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Ipsos MORI expanded the survey\Nin recent years to go across the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:20.95,0:05:23.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, they asked Saudi Arabians,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:23.92,0:05:26.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for every 100 adults in your country,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:26.47,0:05:29.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how many of them are overweight or obese?
Dialogue: 0,0:05:30.53,0:05:35.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the average answer from the Saudis\Nwas just over a quarter.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.40,0:05:37.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's what they thought.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:37.63,0:05:40.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Just over a quarter of adults\Nare overweight or obese.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:40.22,0:05:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The official figures show, actually,\Nit's nearer to three-quarters.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:45.02,0:05:46.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:05:46.50,0:05:48.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So again, a big variation.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:48.82,0:05:53.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I love this one: they asked in Japan,\Nthey asked the Japanese,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:53.29,0:05:55.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for every 100 Japanese people,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:55.28,0:05:57.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how many of them live in rural areas?
Dialogue: 0,0:05:58.52,0:06:03.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The average was about a 50-50 split,\Njust over halfway.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:03.45,0:06:07.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They thought 56 out of every 100\NJapanese people lived in rural areas.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:07.62,0:06:09.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The official figure is seven.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:10.26,0:06:14.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So extraordinary variations,\Nand surprising to some,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.73,0:06:17.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but not surprising to people\Nwho have read the work
Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.15,0:06:21.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of Daniel Kahneman, for example,\Nthe Nobel-winning economist.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:21.56,0:06:26.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He and his colleague, Amos Tversky,\Nspent years researching this disjoint
Dialogue: 0,0:06:26.68,0:06:29.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,between what people perceive\Nand the reality,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:29.85,0:06:33.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the fact that people are actually\Npretty poor intuitive statisticians.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:33.62,0:06:35.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there are many reasons for this.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:35.41,0:06:38.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Individual experiences, certainly,\Ncan influence our perceptions,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:38.54,0:06:42.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but so, too, can things like the media\Nreporting things by exception,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:42.53,0:06:44.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,rather than what's normal.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:44.86,0:06:46.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Kahneman had a nice way\Nof referring to that.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:47.00,0:06:49.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He said, "We can be blind\Nto the obvious" --
Dialogue: 0,0:06:49.11,0:06:50.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so we've got the numbers wrong --
Dialogue: 0,0:06:50.78,0:06:53.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"but we can be blind\Nto our blindness about it."
Dialogue: 0,0:06:53.12,0:06:56.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that has enormous\Nrepercussions for decision making.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.41,0:06:59.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So at the statistics office\Nwhile this was all going on,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:59.29,0:07:01.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I thought this was really interesting.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:01.22,0:07:03.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I said, this is clearly a global problem,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.26,0:07:05.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but maybe geography is the issue here.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:05.72,0:07:09.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These were questions that were all about,\Nhow well do you know your country?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:09.65,0:07:13.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So in this case, it's how well\Ndo you know 64 million people?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:13.67,0:07:16.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not very well, it turns out.\NI can't do that.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:16.42,0:07:17.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I had an idea,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:17.77,0:07:20.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which was to think about\Nthis same sort of approach
Dialogue: 0,0:07:20.92,0:07:23.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but to think about it\Nin a very local sense.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:23.05,0:07:24.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Is this a local?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:24.26,0:07:26.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we reframe the questions and say,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:26.23,0:07:28.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how well do you know your local area,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:28.37,0:07:30.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would your answers be any more accurate?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:31.82,0:07:33.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I devised a quiz:
Dialogue: 0,0:07:33.60,0:07:35.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How well do you know your area?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:36.45,0:07:38.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a simple Web app.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:38.37,0:07:39.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You put in a post code
Dialogue: 0,0:07:39.57,0:07:42.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then it will ask you questions\Nbased on census data
Dialogue: 0,0:07:42.30,0:07:43.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for your local area.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:44.30,0:07:46.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I was very conscious\Nin designing this.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:46.45,0:07:50.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I wanted to make it open\Nto the widest possible range of people,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:50.58,0:07:53.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not just the 49 percent\Nwho can get the numbers.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:53.44,0:07:55.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I wanted everyone to engage with it.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:55.22,0:07:56.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So for the design of the quiz,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.76,0:08:00.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was inspired by the isotypes
Dialogue: 0,0:08:00.40,0:08:03.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of Otto Neurath from the 1920s and '30s.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:03.03,0:08:07.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, these are methods\Nfor representing numbers
Dialogue: 0,0:08:07.40,0:08:09.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,using repeating icons.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:09.64,0:08:12.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the numbers are there,\Nbut they sit in the background.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:12.83,0:08:15.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So it's a great way\Nof representing quantity
Dialogue: 0,0:08:15.58,0:08:18.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,without resorting to using terms\Nlike "percentage,"
Dialogue: 0,0:08:18.58,0:08:19.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"fractions" and "ratios."
Dialogue: 0,0:08:19.84,0:08:21.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So here's the quiz.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:22.31,0:08:23.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The layout of the quiz is,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:23.98,0:08:26.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you have your repeating icons\Non the left-hand side there,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:26.82,0:08:29.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a map showing you the area\Nwe're asking you questions about
Dialogue: 0,0:08:29.97,0:08:31.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the right-hand side.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:31.16,0:08:32.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are seven questions.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:32.47,0:08:36.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Each question, there's a possible answer\Nbetween zero and a hundred,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:36.38,0:08:37.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and at the end of the quiz,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:37.76,0:08:40.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you get an overall score\Nbetween zero and a hundred.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:40.100,0:08:43.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so because this is TEDxExeter,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:43.11,0:08:45.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I thought we would have\Na quick look at the quiz
Dialogue: 0,0:08:45.46,0:08:47.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the first few questions of Exeter.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:47.79,0:08:49.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so the first question is:
Dialogue: 0,0:08:49.22,0:08:52.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For every 100 people,\Nhow many are aged under 16?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:52.78,0:08:56.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I don't know Exeter very well\Nat all, so I had a guess at this,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:56.41,0:08:58.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it gives you an idea\Nof how this quiz works.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:58.99,0:09:02.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You drag the slider\Nto highlight your icons,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:02.72,0:09:04.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then just click "Submit" to answer,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:04.98,0:09:08.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we animate away the difference\Nbetween your answer and reality.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.67,0:09:12.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it turns out, I was a pretty\Nterrible guess: five.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:13.15,0:09:14.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How about the next question?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:14.60,0:09:16.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is asking about\Nwhat the average age is,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.78,0:09:19.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so the age at which half\Nthe population are younger
Dialogue: 0,0:09:19.25,0:09:20.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and half the population are older.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:20.94,0:09:24.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I thought 35 -- that sounds\Nmiddle-aged to me.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:24.32,0:09:25.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:09:28.21,0:09:30.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Actually, in Exeter,\Nit's incredibly young,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:30.34,0:09:34.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I had underestimated the impact\Nof the university in this area.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:34.90,0:09:36.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The questions get harder\Nas you go through.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:36.95,0:09:39.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this one's now asking\Nabout homeownership:
Dialogue: 0,0:09:39.96,0:09:43.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For every 100 households, how many\Nare owned with a mortgage or loan?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:43.68,0:09:44.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I hedged my bets here,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:44.98,0:09:48.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because I didn't want to be\Nmore than 50 out on the answer.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:48.10,0:09:50.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.15,0:09:52.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And actually, these get harder,\Nthese questions,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:52.64,0:09:55.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because when you're in an area,\Nwhen you're in a community,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:55.52,0:10:00.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,things like age -- there are clues\Nto whether a population is old or young.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:00.80,0:10:03.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Just by looking around\Nthe area, you can see it.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:03.16,0:10:06.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Something like homeownership\Nis much more difficult to see,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:06.58,0:10:09.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so we revert to our own heuristics,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:09.21,0:10:13.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,our own biases about how many people\Nwe think own their own homes.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:13.69,0:10:17.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now the truth is,\Nwhen we published this quiz,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:17.36,0:10:20.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the census data that it's based on\Nwas already a few years old.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:20.92,0:10:24.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We've had online applications\Nthat allow you to put in a post code
Dialogue: 0,0:10:24.51,0:10:26.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and get statistics back for years.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:26.63,0:10:27.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So in some senses,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:27.84,0:10:31.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this was all a little bit old\Nand not necessarily new.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:31.42,0:10:35.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I was interested to see\Nwhat reaction we might get
Dialogue: 0,0:10:35.08,0:10:37.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by gamifying the data\Nin the way that we have,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:37.82,0:10:39.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by using animation
Dialogue: 0,0:10:39.25,0:10:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and playing on the fact\Nthat people have their own preconceptions.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:43.51,0:10:47.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It turns out, the reaction was, um ...
Dialogue: 0,0:10:48.33,0:10:50.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was more than I could have hoped for.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:50.28,0:10:53.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was a long-held ambition of mine\Nto bring down a statistics website
Dialogue: 0,0:10:53.68,0:10:55.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,due to public demand.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:55.12,0:10:56.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:10:56.94,0:11:00.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This URL contains the words\N"statistics," "gov" and "UK,"
Dialogue: 0,0:11:00.43,0:11:03.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which are three of people's least\Nfavorite words in a URL.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:03.70,0:11:07.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the amazing thing about this\Nwas that the website came down
Dialogue: 0,0:11:07.70,0:11:09.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at quarter to 10 at night,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:09.82,0:11:13.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because people were actually\Nengaging with this data
Dialogue: 0,0:11:13.06,0:11:14.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of their own free will,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:14.62,0:11:16.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,using their own personal time.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:16.68,0:11:19.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was very interested to see
Dialogue: 0,0:11:19.19,0:11:22.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we got something like\Na quarter of a million people
Dialogue: 0,0:11:22.93,0:11:26.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,playing the quiz within the space\Nof 48 hours of launching it.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:26.22,0:11:30.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it sparked an enormous discussion\Nonline, on social media,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:30.17,0:11:32.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which was largely dominated
Dialogue: 0,0:11:32.23,0:11:36.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by people having fun\Nwith their misconceptions,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:36.25,0:11:39.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is something that\NI couldn't have hoped for any better,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:39.33,0:11:40.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in some respects.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:40.52,0:11:43.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I also liked the fact that people started\Nsending it to politicians.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:43.77,0:11:46.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How well do you know the area\Nyou claim to represent?
Dialogue: 0,0:11:46.38,0:11:47.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:11:47.57,0:11:49.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then just to finish,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:49.99,0:11:52.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,going back to the two kinds of people,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:52.35,0:11:54.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I thought it would be\Nreally interesting to see
Dialogue: 0,0:11:54.63,0:11:57.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how people who are good with numbers\Nwould do on this quiz.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:57.47,0:12:00.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The national statistician\Nof England and Wales, John Pullinger,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:00.51,0:12:02.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you would expect he would be pretty good.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:03.52,0:12:05.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He got 44 for his own area.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:05.100,0:12:08.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:12:08.49,0:12:13.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Jeremy Paxman -- admittedly,\Nafter a glass of wine -- 36.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:14.05,0:12:15.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Even worse.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:15.54,0:12:18.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It just shows you that the numbers\Ncan inspire us all.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:18.76,0:12:20.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They can surprise us all.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:20.04,0:12:22.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So very often, we talk about statistics
Dialogue: 0,0:12:22.11,0:12:24.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as being the science of uncertainty.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:24.09,0:12:25.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My parting thought for today is:
Dialogue: 0,0:12:25.90,0:12:28.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,actually, statistics is the science of us.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:28.96,0:12:31.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's why we should\Nbe fascinated by numbers.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:31.77,0:12:32.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you very much.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:32.98,0:12:36.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)