[Script Info] Title: [Events] Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text Dialogue: 0,0:00:01.62,0:00:04.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I'd like to talk about\Nthe development of human potential, Dialogue: 0,0:00:04.63,0:00:09.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I'd like to start with maybe the most\Nimpactful modern story of development. Dialogue: 0,0:00:09.75,0:00:13.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Many of you here have probably heard\Nof the 10,000 hours rule. Dialogue: 0,0:00:13.55,0:00:15.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Maybe you even model\Nyour own life after it. Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.72,0:00:18.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Basically it's the idea\Nthat to become great in anything, Dialogue: 0,0:00:18.46,0:00:21.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it takes 10,000 hours\Nof focused practice, Dialogue: 0,0:00:21.55,0:00:23.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so you'd better get started\Nas early as possible. Dialogue: 0,0:00:23.92,0:00:27.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The poster child\Nfor this story is Tiger Woods. Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.69,0:00:30.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,His father famously gave him\Na putter when he was seven months old. Dialogue: 0,0:00:31.44,0:00:34.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At 10 months, he started\Nimitating his father's swing. Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.17,0:00:38.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At two, you can go on YouTube\Nand see him on national television. Dialogue: 0,0:00:38.47,0:00:40.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Fast-forward to the age of 21, Dialogue: 0,0:00:40.35,0:00:42.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he's the greatest golfer in the world. Dialogue: 0,0:00:42.16,0:00:43.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Quintessential 10,000 hours story. Dialogue: 0,0:00:43.83,0:00:46.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Another that features a number\Nof bestselling books Dialogue: 0,0:00:46.23,0:00:48.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that of the three Polgar sisters, Dialogue: 0,0:00:48.19,0:00:51.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whose father decided to teach\Nthem chess in a very technical manner Dialogue: 0,0:00:51.34,0:00:52.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from a very early age. Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.62,0:00:53.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And really he wanted to show Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.96,0:00:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that with a head start\Nin focused practice, Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.00,0:00:58.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,any child could become\Na genius in anything. Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.53,0:00:59.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in fact, Dialogue: 0,0:00:59.53,0:01:02.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,two of his daughters went on\Nto become grandmaster chess players. Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.58,0:01:06.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So when I became the science writer\Nat "Sports Illustrated" magazine, Dialogue: 0,0:01:06.11,0:01:07.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I got curious. Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.45,0:01:09.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If this 10,000 hours rule is correct, Dialogue: 0,0:01:09.39,0:01:11.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then we should see that elite\Nathletes get a head start Dialogue: 0,0:01:11.98,0:01:13.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in so-called "deliberate practice." Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.80,0:01:14.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is coached, Dialogue: 0,0:01:14.80,0:01:16.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,error-correction focused practice, Dialogue: 0,0:01:16.48,0:01:17.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not just playing around. Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.93,0:01:18.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in fact, Dialogue: 0,0:01:18.93,0:01:20.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when scientists study elite athletes, Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.70,0:01:23.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they see that they spend\Nmore time in deliberate practice -- Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.61,0:01:24.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not a big surprise. Dialogue: 0,0:01:24.81,0:01:28.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When they actually track athletes\Nover the course of their development, Dialogue: 0,0:01:28.15,0:01:29.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the pattern looks like this: Dialogue: 0,0:01:29.48,0:01:33.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the future elites actually spend\Nless time early on in deliberate practice Dialogue: 0,0:01:33.12,0:01:34.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in their eventual sport. Dialogue: 0,0:01:34.71,0:01:37.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They tend to have what scientists\Ncall a "sampling period," Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.98,0:01:40.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where they try a variety\Nof physical activities, Dialogue: 0,0:01:40.22,0:01:42.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they gain broad, general skills, Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.10,0:01:44.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they learn about\Ntheir interests and abilities Dialogue: 0,0:01:44.27,0:01:48.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and delay specializing until later\Nthan peers who plateau at lower levels. Dialogue: 0,0:01:48.85,0:01:51.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so when I saw that I said, Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.06,0:01:54.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Gosh, that doesn't really comport\Nwith the 10,000 hours rule, does it?" Dialogue: 0,0:01:54.43,0:01:56.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I started to wonder about other domains Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.47,0:01:59.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we associate with obligatory,\Nearly specialization, Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.72,0:02:00.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like music. Dialogue: 0,0:02:00.99,0:02:02.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Turns out the pattern's often similar. Dialogue: 0,0:02:02.92,0:02:05.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is research from\Na world-class music academy, Dialogue: 0,0:02:05.41,0:02:07.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what I want to draw\Nyour attention to is this: Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.75,0:02:11.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the exceptional musicians didn't start\Nspending more time in deliberate practice Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.50,0:02:12.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than the average musicians Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.76,0:02:14.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,until their third instrument. Dialogue: 0,0:02:14.29,0:02:16.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They, too, tended to have\Na sampling period. Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.34,0:02:18.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Even musicians we think of\Nas famously precocious, Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.84,0:02:19.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like Yo-Yo Ma. Dialogue: 0,0:02:20.11,0:02:21.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He had a sampling period, Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.31,0:02:24.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he just went through it more rapidly\Nthan most musicians do. Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.17,0:02:27.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nonetheless, this research\Nis almost entirely ignored, Dialogue: 0,0:02:27.41,0:02:28.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and much more impactful Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.67,0:02:31.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the first page of the book \N"Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother," Dialogue: 0,0:02:31.72,0:02:34.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where the author recounts \Nassigning her daughter violin. Dialogue: 0,0:02:34.86,0:02:37.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nobody seems to remember\Nthe part later in the book Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.24,0:02:40.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where her daughter turns to her\Nand says, "You picked it, not me," Dialogue: 0,0:02:40.33,0:02:41.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and largely quits. Dialogue: 0,0:02:41.33,0:02:44.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So having seen this sort of surprising\Npattern in sports and music, Dialogue: 0,0:02:44.52,0:02:47.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I started to wonder about domains\Nthat effect even more people, Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.50,0:02:48.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like education. Dialogue: 0,0:02:48.50,0:02:50.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,An economist found a natural experiment Dialogue: 0,0:02:50.37,0:02:52.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the higher-ed systems\Nof England and Scotland. Dialogue: 0,0:02:52.74,0:02:55.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the period he studied\Nthe systems were very similar Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.47,0:02:56.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,except in England, Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.47,0:02:58.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,students had to specialize\Nin their mid-teen years Dialogue: 0,0:02:58.96,0:03:01.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to pick a specific course\Nof study to apply to, Dialogue: 0,0:03:01.18,0:03:02.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whereas in Scotland, Dialogue: 0,0:03:02.19,0:03:05.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they could keep trying things\Nin the university if they wanted to. Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.28,0:03:06.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And his question was: Dialogue: 0,0:03:06.31,0:03:07.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who wins the trade-off, Dialogue: 0,0:03:07.97,0:03:09.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the early of the late specializers? Dialogue: 0,0:03:09.100,0:03:13.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what he saw was that the early\Nspecializers jump out to an income lead Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.47,0:03:15.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because they have more\Ndomain-specific skills. Dialogue: 0,0:03:15.61,0:03:18.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The late specializers\Nget to try more different things, Dialogue: 0,0:03:18.18,0:03:19.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and when they do pick, Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.23,0:03:20.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they have better fit, Dialogue: 0,0:03:20.23,0:03:22.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or what economists call "match quality." Dialogue: 0,0:03:22.30,0:03:24.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so their growth rates are faster. Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.93,0:03:26.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By six years out, Dialogue: 0,0:03:26.12,0:03:27.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they erase that income gap. Dialogue: 0,0:03:27.78,0:03:30.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Meanwhile, the early specializers\Nstart quitting their career tracks Dialogue: 0,0:03:30.96,0:03:32.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in much higher numbers, Dialogue: 0,0:03:32.11,0:03:34.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,essentially because they were\Nmade to choose so early Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.59,0:03:36.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they more often made poor choices. Dialogue: 0,0:03:36.44,0:03:38.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the late specializers\Nlose in the short term Dialogue: 0,0:03:38.64,0:03:39.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and win the long run. Dialogue: 0,0:03:39.64,0:03:42.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think if we thought about\Ncareer choice like dating, Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.18,0:03:45.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we might not pressure people\Nto settle down quite so quickly. Dialogue: 0,0:03:45.03,0:03:46.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this got me interested -- Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.37,0:03:47.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,seeing this pattern again -- Dialogue: 0,0:03:47.71,0:03:49.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in exploring the developmental backgrounds Dialogue: 0,0:03:49.71,0:03:51.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of people whose work I had long admired. Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.62,0:03:52.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Like Duke Ellington, Dialogue: 0,0:03:52.62,0:03:55.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who shunned music lessons\Nas a kid to focus on baseball Dialogue: 0,0:03:55.19,0:03:56.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and painting and drawing. Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.44,0:03:57.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or Maryam Mirzakhani, Dialogue: 0,0:03:57.69,0:03:59.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who wasn't interested\Nin math as a girl -- Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.64,0:04:01.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,dreamed of becoming a novelist -- Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.28,0:04:03.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and went on to become\Nthe first and so far only woman Dialogue: 0,0:04:03.76,0:04:04.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to win the Fields Medal, Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.90,0:04:07.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the most prestigious prize\Nin the world in math. Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.15,0:04:09.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or Vincent Van Gogh\Nhad five different careers, Dialogue: 0,0:04:09.34,0:04:11.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,each of which he deemed his true calling Dialogue: 0,0:04:11.25,0:04:13.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,before flaming out spectacularly. Dialogue: 0,0:04:13.28,0:04:17.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in his late 20s picked up a book\Ncalled "The Guide to the ABCs of Drawing." Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.14,0:04:19.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That worked out OK. Dialogue: 0,0:04:19.90,0:04:23.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Claude Shannon was an electrical engineer\Nat the University of Michigan Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.23,0:04:26.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who took a philosophy course\Njust to fulfill a requirement, Dialogue: 0,0:04:26.31,0:04:29.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in it, he learned about \Na near century-old system of logic Dialogue: 0,0:04:29.66,0:04:32.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by which true and false statements\Ncould be coded as ones and zeros Dialogue: 0,0:04:32.80,0:04:34.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and solved like math problems. Dialogue: 0,0:04:34.79,0:04:37.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This led to the development\Nof binary code, Dialogue: 0,0:04:37.21,0:04:39.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which underlies all of our\Ndigital computers today. Dialogue: 0,0:04:40.20,0:04:41.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Finally, my own sort of role model, Dialogue: 0,0:04:41.92,0:04:42.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Frances Hesselbein -- Dialogue: 0,0:04:42.93,0:04:44.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this is me with her -- Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.33,0:04:47.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,she took her first professional\Njob at the age of 54 Dialogue: 0,0:04:47.55,0:04:49.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and went on to become \Nthe CEO of the Girl Scouts, Dialogue: 0,0:04:49.88,0:04:50.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which she saved. Dialogue: 0,0:04:50.94,0:04:52.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,She tripled minority membership, Dialogue: 0,0:04:52.66,0:04:55.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,added 130,000 volunteers, Dialogue: 0,0:04:55.53,0:04:58.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and this is one of the proficiency badges\Nthat came out of her tenure -- Dialogue: 0,0:04:58.97,0:05:01.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's binary code for girls\Nlearning about computers. Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.56,0:05:03.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Today, Frances runs a leadership institute Dialogue: 0,0:05:03.56,0:05:05.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where she works every\Nweekday in Manhattan, Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.99,0:05:07.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and she's only 104, Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.42,0:05:09.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so who knows what's next. Dialogue: 0,0:05:09.23,0:05:10.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter) Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.75,0:05:13.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We never really hear developmental\Nstories like this, do we? Dialogue: 0,0:05:13.56,0:05:15.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We don't hear about the research Dialogue: 0,0:05:15.09,0:05:18.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that found that Nobel laureate scientists\Nare 22 times more likely Dialogue: 0,0:05:18.26,0:05:19.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to have a hobby outside of work Dialogue: 0,0:05:19.82,0:05:21.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as are typical scientists. Dialogue: 0,0:05:21.11,0:05:22.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We never hear that. Dialogue: 0,0:05:22.11,0:05:24.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Even when the performers\Nor the work is very famous, Dialogue: 0,0:05:24.54,0:05:26.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we don't hear these\Ndevelopmental stories. Dialogue: 0,0:05:26.51,0:05:28.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example, here's\Nan athlete I've followed. Dialogue: 0,0:05:28.60,0:05:29.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here he is at age six, Dialogue: 0,0:05:29.95,0:05:31.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,wearing a Scottish rugby kit. Dialogue: 0,0:05:31.34,0:05:32.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He tried some tennis, Dialogue: 0,0:05:32.34,0:05:33.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,some skiing, Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.34,0:05:34.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,wrestling. Dialogue: 0,0:05:34.34,0:05:37.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,His mother was actually a tennis coach\Nbut she declined to coach him Dialogue: 0,0:05:37.53,0:05:40.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because he wouldn't return balls normally. Dialogue: 0,0:05:40.16,0:05:42.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He did some basketball,\Ntable tennis, swimming. Dialogue: 0,0:05:42.35,0:05:45.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When his coaches wanted to move\Nhim up a level to play with older boys, Dialogue: 0,0:05:45.68,0:05:48.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he declined because he just wanted\Nto talk about pro wrestling Dialogue: 0,0:05:48.58,0:05:50.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,after practice with his friends. Dialogue: 0,0:05:50.10,0:05:51.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And he kept trying more sports: Dialogue: 0,0:05:51.58,0:05:54.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,handball, volleyball, soccer,\Nbadminton, skateboarding -- Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.29,0:05:56.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so who is this dabbler? Dialogue: 0,0:05:56.67,0:05:58.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is Roger Federer. Dialogue: 0,0:05:58.62,0:06:01.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Every bit as famous\Nas an adult as Tiger Woods, Dialogue: 0,0:06:01.98,0:06:05.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and yet even tennis enthusiasts\Ndon't usually know anything Dialogue: 0,0:06:05.08,0:06:06.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about his developmental story. Dialogue: 0,0:06:06.69,0:06:08.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Why is that even though it's the norm? Dialogue: 0,0:06:09.29,0:06:12.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think it's partly because\Nthe Tiger story is very dramatic. Dialogue: 0,0:06:12.49,0:06:14.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But also because it seems\Nlike this tidy narrative Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.92,0:06:16.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we can extrapolate to anything Dialogue: 0,0:06:16.60,0:06:19.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we want to be good\Nat in our own lives. Dialogue: 0,0:06:19.26,0:06:20.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But that I think is a problem, Dialogue: 0,0:06:20.96,0:06:24.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it turns out that in many ways\Ngolf is a uniquely horrible model Dialogue: 0,0:06:24.34,0:06:26.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of almost everything\Nthat humans want to learn. Dialogue: 0,0:06:26.55,0:06:27.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter) Dialogue: 0,0:06:28.11,0:06:31.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Golf is the epitome of what\Nthe psychologist Robin Hogarth called Dialogue: 0,0:06:31.15,0:06:32.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a "kind" learning environment. Dialogue: 0,0:06:32.58,0:06:35.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Kind learning environments\Nhave next steps and goals that are clear, Dialogue: 0,0:06:35.78,0:06:37.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,rules that are clear and never change -- Dialogue: 0,0:06:37.84,0:06:41.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when you do something you get feedback\Nthat is quick and accurate; Dialogue: 0,0:06:41.02,0:06:43.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,work next year will look\Nlike work last year. Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.36,0:06:44.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Chess: Dialogue: 0,0:06:44.41,0:06:46.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,also a kind learning environment. Dialogue: 0,0:06:46.01,0:06:49.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The grandmasters' advantage is based\Non knowledge of recurring patterns, Dialogue: 0,0:06:49.65,0:06:51.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is also why\Nit's so easy to automate. Dialogue: 0,0:06:51.69,0:06:54.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,On the other end of the spectrum\Nare "wicked" learning environments, Dialogue: 0,0:06:54.92,0:06:57.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where next steps and goals\Nmay not be clear. Dialogue: 0,0:06:57.30,0:06:58.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Rules may change. Dialogue: 0,0:06:58.92,0:07:01.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You may or may not get feedback\Nwhen you do something. Dialogue: 0,0:07:01.45,0:07:02.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It may be delayed, Dialogue: 0,0:07:02.45,0:07:03.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it may be inaccurate Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.46,0:07:06.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and work next year may not\Nlook like work last year. Dialogue: 0,0:07:06.16,0:07:08.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So which one of these\Nsounds like the world Dialogue: 0,0:07:08.21,0:07:10.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're increasingly living in? Dialogue: 0,0:07:10.50,0:07:12.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, our need to think\Nin an adaptable manner Dialogue: 0,0:07:12.93,0:07:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and to keep track of interconnecting parts Dialogue: 0,0:07:15.00,0:07:17.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has fundamentally changed our perception Dialogue: 0,0:07:17.47,0:07:19.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so that when you look at this diagram, Dialogue: 0,0:07:19.29,0:07:22.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the central circle on the right\Nprobably looks larger to you Dialogue: 0,0:07:22.58,0:07:25.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because your brain is drawn\Nto the relationship of the parts Dialogue: 0,0:07:25.38,0:07:26.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the whole, Dialogue: 0,0:07:26.42,0:07:28.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whereas someone who hasn't been\Nexposed to modern work Dialogue: 0,0:07:28.99,0:07:31.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with its requirement for adaptable,\Nconceptual thought, Dialogue: 0,0:07:31.56,0:07:34.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will see correctly that the central\Ncircles are the same size. Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.20,0:07:38.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So here we are in the wicked work world, Dialogue: 0,0:07:38.17,0:07:41.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and there, sometimes\Nhyperspecialization can backfire badly. Dialogue: 0,0:07:41.70,0:07:42.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example, Dialogue: 0,0:07:42.71,0:07:44.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in research in a dozen countries Dialogue: 0,0:07:44.23,0:07:46.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that matched people\Nfor their parents' years of education, Dialogue: 0,0:07:46.95,0:07:48.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,their test scores, Dialogue: 0,0:07:48.05,0:07:49.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,their own years of education, Dialogue: 0,0:07:49.52,0:07:52.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the difference was some got\Ncareer-focused education Dialogue: 0,0:07:52.33,0:07:54.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and some got broader, general education. Dialogue: 0,0:07:54.52,0:07:57.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The pattern was those who got\Nthe career-focused education Dialogue: 0,0:07:57.23,0:07:59.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are more likely to be hired\Nright out of training, Dialogue: 0,0:07:59.57,0:08:01.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more likely to make more money right away, Dialogue: 0,0:08:01.56,0:08:03.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but so much less adaptable\Nin a changing work world Dialogue: 0,0:08:03.95,0:08:06.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they spend so much less time\Nin the workforce overall Dialogue: 0,0:08:06.88,0:08:09.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they win in the short term\Nand lose in the long run. Dialogue: 0,0:08:09.81,0:08:13.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or consider a famous,\N20-year study of experts Dialogue: 0,0:08:13.35,0:08:15.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,making geopolitical\Nand economic predictions. Dialogue: 0,0:08:16.04,0:08:19.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The worst forecasters\Nwere the most specialized experts. Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.24,0:08:23.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those who'd spent their entire careers\Nstudying one or two problems Dialogue: 0,0:08:23.39,0:08:26.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and came to see the whole world\Nthrough one lens or mental model. Dialogue: 0,0:08:26.43,0:08:27.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Some of them actually got worse Dialogue: 0,0:08:27.93,0:08:30.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as they accumulated\Nexperience and credentials. Dialogue: 0,0:08:30.59,0:08:35.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The best forecasters were simply\Nbright people with wide-ranging interests. Dialogue: 0,0:08:35.86,0:08:36.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now in some domains, Dialogue: 0,0:08:36.91,0:08:37.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like medicine, Dialogue: 0,0:08:37.97,0:08:41.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,increasing specialization has been\Nboth inevitable and beneficial. Dialogue: 0,0:08:41.06,0:08:42.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No question about it. Dialogue: 0,0:08:42.06,0:08:43.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And yet it's been a double-edged sword. Dialogue: 0,0:08:43.92,0:08:44.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A few years ago, Dialogue: 0,0:08:44.92,0:08:47.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one of the most popular surgeries\Nin the world for knee pain Dialogue: 0,0:08:47.73,0:08:49.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was tested in a placebo-controlled trial. Dialogue: 0,0:08:49.68,0:08:51.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Some of the patients got "sham surgery." Dialogue: 0,0:08:51.85,0:08:53.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That means the surgeons make an incision, Dialogue: 0,0:08:53.80,0:08:55.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they bang around like\Nthey're doing something, Dialogue: 0,0:08:55.94,0:08:57.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then they sew the patient back up. Dialogue: 0,0:08:57.56,0:08:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That performed just as a well. Dialogue: 0,0:08:59.00,0:09:02.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And yet surgeons who specialize\Nin the procedure continue to do it Dialogue: 0,0:09:02.12,0:09:03.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by the millions. Dialogue: 0,0:09:04.06,0:09:08.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if hyperspecialization isn't always\Nthe trick in a wicked world, what is? Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.33,0:09:09.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That can be difficult to talk about Dialogue: 0,0:09:09.100,0:09:12.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it doesn't\Nalways look like this path. Dialogue: 0,0:09:12.15,0:09:14.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Sometimes it looks like\Nmeandering or zigzagging Dialogue: 0,0:09:14.38,0:09:15.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or keeping a broader view. Dialogue: 0,0:09:15.65,0:09:17.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It can look like getting behind. Dialogue: 0,0:09:17.42,0:09:20.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I want to talk about what\Nsome of those tricks might be. Dialogue: 0,0:09:20.23,0:09:22.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we look at research\Non technological innovation, Dialogue: 0,0:09:22.61,0:09:23.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it shows that increasingly, Dialogue: 0,0:09:23.90,0:09:26.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the most impactful patents\Nare not authored by individuals Dialogue: 0,0:09:26.61,0:09:29.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who drill deeper, deeper, deeper\Ninto one area of technology, Dialogue: 0,0:09:29.49,0:09:31.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as classified by the US Patent Office, Dialogue: 0,0:09:31.53,0:09:34.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but rather by teams\Nthat include individuals Dialogue: 0,0:09:34.73,0:09:38.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who have worked across a large number\Nof different technology classes Dialogue: 0,0:09:38.02,0:09:40.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and often merge things\Nfrom different domains. Dialogue: 0,0:09:40.16,0:09:41.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Someone whose work I've admired Dialogue: 0,0:09:41.65,0:09:43.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who was sort of\Non the forefront of this -- Dialogue: 0,0:09:43.66,0:09:45.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a Japanese man named Gunpei Yokoi. Dialogue: 0,0:09:45.60,0:09:48.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yokoi didn't score well\Non his electronics exams at school, Dialogue: 0,0:09:48.40,0:09:51.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so he had to settle for a low-tier job\Nas a machine maintenance worker Dialogue: 0,0:09:51.69,0:09:53.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at a playing card company in Kyoto. Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.68,0:09:56.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He realized he wasn't equipped\Nto work on the cutting edge, Dialogue: 0,0:09:56.64,0:09:59.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but that there was so much\Ninformation easily available Dialogue: 0,0:09:59.70,0:10:02.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that maybe he could combine things\Nthat were already well-known Dialogue: 0,0:10:02.66,0:10:05.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in ways that specialists\Nwere too narrow to see. Dialogue: 0,0:10:05.37,0:10:08.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So he combined some well-known technology\Nfrom the calculator industry Dialogue: 0,0:10:08.86,0:10:11.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with some well-known technology\Nfrom the credit card industry Dialogue: 0,0:10:11.74,0:10:13.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and made handheld games. Dialogue: 0,0:10:13.20,0:10:14.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they were a hit. Dialogue: 0,0:10:14.49,0:10:16.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it turned this playing card company, Dialogue: 0,0:10:16.79,0:10:20.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which was founded in a wooden\Nstorefront in the 19th century, Dialogue: 0,0:10:20.33,0:10:22.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into a toy and game operation. Dialogue: 0,0:10:22.05,0:10:23.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You may have heard of it; Dialogue: 0,0:10:23.24,0:10:24.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's called Nintendo. Dialogue: 0,0:10:24.44,0:10:26.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yokoi's creative philosophy translated Dialogue: 0,0:10:26.37,0:10:29.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to "lateral thinking \Nwith withered technology;" Dialogue: 0,0:10:29.11,0:10:31.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,taking well-known technology\Nand using it in new ways. Dialogue: 0,0:10:31.84,0:10:33.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And his magnum opus was this: Dialogue: 0,0:10:33.98,0:10:35.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Game Boy. Dialogue: 0,0:10:35.07,0:10:37.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Technological joke in every way. Dialogue: 0,0:10:37.56,0:10:41.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it came out at the same time\Nas color competitors from Saga and Atari Dialogue: 0,0:10:41.44,0:10:43.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it blew them away Dialogue: 0,0:10:43.13,0:10:46.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because Yokoi knew what his\Ncustomers cared about wasn't color. Dialogue: 0,0:10:46.42,0:10:47.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was durability, Dialogue: 0,0:10:47.81,0:10:48.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,portability, Dialogue: 0,0:10:48.94,0:10:50.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,affordability, Dialogue: 0,0:10:50.08,0:10:51.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,battery life -- Dialogue: 0,0:10:51.08,0:10:52.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,game selection. Dialogue: 0,0:10:52.14,0:10:54.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is mine that I found\Nin my parents' basement -- Dialogue: 0,0:10:54.61,0:10:55.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter) Dialogue: 0,0:10:55.80,0:10:57.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,seen better days. Dialogue: 0,0:10:57.38,0:10:59.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But you can see the red light is on. Dialogue: 0,0:10:59.09,0:11:00.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I flipped it on and played some Tetris, Dialogue: 0,0:11:00.95,0:11:02.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which I thought was especially impressive Dialogue: 0,0:11:02.90,0:11:05.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the batteries had expired\Nin 2007 and 2013. Dialogue: 0,0:11:05.29,0:11:06.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter) Dialogue: 0,0:11:07.60,0:11:11.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this breadth advantage holds\Nin more subjective realms as well. Dialogue: 0,0:11:11.21,0:11:14.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In a fascinating study of what leads\Nsome comic book creators Dialogue: 0,0:11:14.60,0:11:17.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be more likely to make\Nblockbuster comics, Dialogue: 0,0:11:17.46,0:11:18.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a pair of researchers found Dialogue: 0,0:11:18.76,0:11:22.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it was neither the number of years\Nof experience in the field Dialogue: 0,0:11:22.43,0:11:25.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,nor the resources of the publisher Dialogue: 0,0:11:25.42,0:11:27.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,nor the number of previous comics made. Dialogue: 0,0:11:27.66,0:11:31.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was the number of different genres\Nthat a creator had worked across. Dialogue: 0,0:11:31.97,0:11:33.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And interestingly, Dialogue: 0,0:11:33.39,0:11:37.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a broad individual\Ncould not be entirely replaced Dialogue: 0,0:11:37.11,0:11:38.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by a team of specialists. Dialogue: 0,0:11:39.24,0:11:42.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We probably don't make as many\Nof those people as we could Dialogue: 0,0:11:42.15,0:11:43.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because early on, Dialogue: 0,0:11:43.41,0:11:45.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they just look like they're behind Dialogue: 0,0:11:45.06,0:11:48.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we don't tend to incentivize anything\Nthat doesn't look like a head start Dialogue: 0,0:11:48.67,0:11:49.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or specialization. Dialogue: 0,0:11:49.82,0:11:52.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, I think in the well-meaning\Ndrive for a head start, Dialogue: 0,0:11:52.81,0:11:56.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we often even counterproductively\Nshort circuit even the way we learn Dialogue: 0,0:11:56.16,0:11:58.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,new material at a fundamental level. Dialogue: 0,0:11:58.58,0:11:59.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In a study last year, Dialogue: 0,0:11:59.61,0:12:02.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,seventh-grade math classrooms in the US Dialogue: 0,0:12:02.51,0:12:05.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were randomly assigned\Nto different types of learning. Dialogue: 0,0:12:05.41,0:12:07.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Some got what's called "blocked practice." Dialogue: 0,0:12:08.05,0:12:09.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's like, you get problem type A, Dialogue: 0,0:12:09.81,0:12:10.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,AAAAA, Dialogue: 0,0:12:10.93,0:12:11.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,BBBBB, Dialogue: 0,0:12:11.84,0:12:12.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so on. Dialogue: 0,0:12:12.84,0:12:14.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Progress is fast; Dialogue: 0,0:12:14.23,0:12:15.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,kids are happy; Dialogue: 0,0:12:15.43,0:12:16.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,everything's great. Dialogue: 0,0:12:16.46,0:12:20.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Other classrooms got assigned\Nto what's called "interleaved practice." Dialogue: 0,0:12:20.54,0:12:22.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's like if you took\Nall the problem types Dialogue: 0,0:12:22.64,0:12:23.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and threw them in a hat Dialogue: 0,0:12:23.74,0:12:25.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and drew them out at random. Dialogue: 0,0:12:25.07,0:12:26.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Progress is slower; Dialogue: 0,0:12:26.30,0:12:28.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,kids are more frustrated. Dialogue: 0,0:12:28.27,0:12:30.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But instead of learning\Nhow to execute procedures, Dialogue: 0,0:12:30.98,0:12:34.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they're learning how to match\Na strategy to a type of problem. Dialogue: 0,0:12:34.64,0:12:36.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And when the test comes around, Dialogue: 0,0:12:36.37,0:12:39.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the interleaved group blew\Nthe block practice group away. Dialogue: 0,0:12:40.01,0:12:41.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It wasn't even close. Dialogue: 0,0:12:41.82,0:12:45.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now I found a lot of this research\Ndeeply counterintuitive. Dialogue: 0,0:12:45.42,0:12:46.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The idea that a head start, Dialogue: 0,0:12:46.78,0:12:49.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether in picking a career\Nor a course of study Dialogue: 0,0:12:49.03,0:12:50.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or just in learning new material, Dialogue: 0,0:12:50.71,0:12:53.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can sometimes undermine\Nlong-term development. Dialogue: 0,0:12:53.58,0:12:57.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And naturally, I think there are as many\Nways to succeed as there are people, Dialogue: 0,0:12:57.70,0:13:02.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but I think we tend only to incentivize\Nand encourage the Tiger path, Dialogue: 0,0:13:02.09,0:13:03.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when increasingly in a wicked world, Dialogue: 0,0:13:03.80,0:13:06.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we need people who travel\Nthe Roger path as well. Dialogue: 0,0:13:06.71,0:13:09.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or as the eminent physicist\Nand mathematician Dialogue: 0,0:13:09.30,0:13:12.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and wonderful writer\NFreeman Dyson put it -- Dialogue: 0,0:13:12.84,0:13:15.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and Dyson passed away yesterday, Dialogue: 0,0:13:15.84,0:13:18.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so I hope I'm doing\Nhis words honor here. Dialogue: 0,0:13:18.25,0:13:19.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As he said, Dialogue: 0,0:13:19.25,0:13:20.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"For a healthy ecosystem, Dialogue: 0,0:13:20.57,0:13:22.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we need both birds and frogs. Dialogue: 0,0:13:23.02,0:13:24.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Frogs are down in the mud, Dialogue: 0,0:13:24.26,0:13:26.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,seeing all the granular details. Dialogue: 0,0:13:26.40,0:13:29.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The birds are soaring up above\Nnot seeing those details, Dialogue: 0,0:13:29.11,0:13:31.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but integrating\Nthe knowledge of the frogs." Dialogue: 0,0:13:31.16,0:13:32.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we need both. Dialogue: 0,0:13:32.52,0:13:34.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The problem, Dyson said, Dialogue: 0,0:13:34.40,0:13:36.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that we're telling\Neveryone to become frogs. Dialogue: 0,0:13:36.100,0:13:38.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I think, Dialogue: 0,0:13:38.16,0:13:39.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in a wicked world, Dialogue: 0,0:13:39.68,0:13:41.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's increasingly shortsighted. Dialogue: 0,0:13:41.97,0:13:43.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you very much. Dialogue: 0,0:13:43.13,0:13:46.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)