[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I'd like to talk about\Nthe development of human potential,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I'd like to start with maybe the most\Nimpactful modern story of development.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Many of you here have probably heard\Nof the 10,000 hours rule.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Maybe you even model\Nyour own life after it.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Basically it's the idea\Nthat to become great in anything,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it takes 10,000 hours\Nof focused practice ...
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so you'd better get started\Nas early as possible.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The poster child\Nfor this story is Tiger Woods.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,His father famously gave him\Na putter when he was seven months old.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At 10 months he started\Nimitating his father's swing.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At two you can go on YouTube\Nand see him on national television.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Fast forward to the age of 21,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he's the greatest golfer in the world.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Quintessential 10,000 hours story.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Another that features a number\Nof bestselling books
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that of the three Polgar sisters,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whose father decided to teach\Nthem chess in a very technical manner
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from a very early age.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And really he wanted to show
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that with a headstart in focused practice,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,any child could become\Na genius in anything.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in fact,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,two of his daughters went on\Nto become grandmaster chess players.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When I became the science writer\Nat "Sports Illustrated" magazine,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I got curious.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If this 10,000 hours rule is correct,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then we should see that elite\Nathletes get a head start
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in so-called deliberate practice.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is coached,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,error-correction focused practice,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not just playing around.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in fact,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when scientists study elite athletes,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they see that they spend more time\Nin deliberate practice.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not a big surprise.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When they actually track athletes\Nover the course of their development,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the patter looks like this.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The future elites actually spend\Nless time early on in deliberate practice
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in their eventual sport.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They tend to have what scientists\Ncall a sampling period,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where they try a variety\Nof physical activities,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they gain broad, general skills,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they learn about their interests\Nand abilities
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and delay specializing until later\Nthan peers who plateau at lower levels.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so when I saw that I said,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Gosh, that doesn't really comport\Nwith the 10,000 hours rule, does it?"
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I started to wonder about other domains
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we associate\Nwith obligatory specialization,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like music.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Turns out the pattern's often similar.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is research from\Na world-class music academy,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what I want to draw\Nyour attention to is this:
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the exceptional musicians didn't start\Nspending more time in deliberate practice
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than the average musicians
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,until their third instrument.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They too tended to have a sampling period.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Even musicians we think of\Nas famously precocious,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like Yo-Yo Ma.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He had a sampling period,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he just went through it more rapidly\Nthan most musicians do.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nonetheless, this research\Nis almost entirely ignored,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and much more impactful
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the first page of the book \N"Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother,"
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where the author recounts \Nassigning her daughter violin.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nobody seems to remember\Nthe part later in the book
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where her daughter turns to her\Nand says, "You picked it, not me,"
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and largely quits.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, having seen this sort of surprising\Npattern in sports and music,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I started to think about domains\Nthat effect even more people,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like education.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,An economist found a natural experiment
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the higher-ed systems\Nof England and Scotland.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the period he studied,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the systems were very similar,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,except in England,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,students had to specialize\Nin their mid-teen years
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to pick a specific course of study\Nto apply towards.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In Scotland, they could keep trying\Nthings in the university
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if they wanted to.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And his question was:
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who wins the trade-off,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the early of the late specializers?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what he saw was that the early\Nspecializers jump out to an income lead
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because they have more\Ndomain-specific skills.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The late specializers get to try\Nmore different things,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and when they do pick,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they have better fit,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or what economists call "match quality."
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so their growth rates are faster.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Bu six years out,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they erase that income gap.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Meanwhile, the early specializers\Nstart quitting their career tracks
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in much higher numbers,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,essentially because they were made\Nthe choose so early
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they more often made poor choices.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the late specializers lose\Nin the short term
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and win the long run.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think if we thought about\Ncareer choice like dating,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we might not pressure people\Nto settle down quite so quickly.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this got me interested --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,seeing this pattern again --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in exploring the developmental backgrounds
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of people whose work I had long admired.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Like Duke Ellington,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who shunned music lessons\Nas a kid to focus on baseball
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and painting and drawing.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or Maryam Mirzakhani,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who wasn't interested\Nin math as a girl --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,dreamed of becoming an novelist
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and went on to become the first,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so far only woman to win\Nthe Fields Medal,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the most prestigious prize\Nin the world in math.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or Vincent Van Gogh --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,had five different careers,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,each of which he deemed\Nhis true calling
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,before flaming out spectacularly.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in his late 20s picked up a book\Ncalled "The Guide to the ABCs of Drawing."
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That worked out OK.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Claude Shannon was an electrical engineer\Nat the University of Michigan
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who took a philosophy course\Njust to fulfill a requirement,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in it, he learned about \Na near century-old system of logic
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by which true and false statements\Ncould be coded as ones and zeros
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and solved like math problems.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This led to the development\Nof binary code,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which underlies all of our\Ndigital computers today.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Finally, my own sort of role model,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Frances Hesselbein --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this is me with her --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,she took her first professional\Njob at the age of 54
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and went on to become \Nthe CEO of the Girl Scouts,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which she saved.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,She tripled minority membership,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,added 130,000 volunteers,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and this is one of the proficiency badges\Nthat came out of her tenrure --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's binary code for girls\Nlearning about computers.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Today, Frances runs a leadership institute
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where she works every\Nweekday in Manhattan,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and she's only 104,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so who knows what's next.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We never really hear developmental\Nstories like this, do we?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We don't hear about the research
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that found that Nobel Laureate scientists\Nare 22 times more likely
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to have a hobby outside of work
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as are typical scientists.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We never hear that.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Even when the performers\Nor the work is very famous,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we don't hear these\Ndevelopmental stories.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example, here's\Nan athlete I've followed.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here he is at age six,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,wearing a Scottish rugby kit.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now he tried some tennis,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,some skiing,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,wrestling.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,His mother was actually a tennis coach\Nbut she declined to coach him
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because he wouldn't return balls normally.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He did some basketball,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,table tennis,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,swimming.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When his coaches wanted to move\Nhim up a level to play with older boys,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he declined because he just wanted\Nto talk about pro wrestling after practice
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with his friends.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And he kept trying more sports:
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,handball,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,volleyball,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,soccer,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,badminton,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,skateboarding.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So who is this dabbler?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is Roger Federer.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Every bit as famous\Nas an adult as Tiger Woods,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and yet even tennis enthusiasts don't\Nusually know anything
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about his developmental story.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Why is that even though it's the norm?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think it's partly because the Tiger\Nstory is very dramatic.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But also because it seems\Nlike this tidy narrative
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we can extrapolate to anything\Nwe want to be good at in our own lives.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But that I think is a problem,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it turns out that in many ways\Ngolf is a uniquely horrible model
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of almost everything\Nthat humans want to learn.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Golf is the epitome of what\Nthe psychologist Robin Hogarth called
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a "Kind learning environment."
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Kind learning environments have next steps\Nand goals that are clear,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,rules that are clear and never change --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when you do something you get feedback\Nthat is quick and accurate --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,work next year will look\Nlike work last year.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Chess:
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,also a kind learning environment.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The grandmasters' advantage is based\Non knowledge of recurring patterns,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is also why\Nit's so easy to automate.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,On the other end of the spectrum\Nare "wicked learning environments,"
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where next steps and goals\Nmay not be clear.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Rules may change.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You may or may not get feedback\Nwhen you do something.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It may be delayed,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it may be inaccurate
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and work next year may not\Nlook like work last year.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So which one of these\Nsounds like the world
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're increasingly living in?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, our need to think\Nin an adaptable manner
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and to keep track of interconnecting parts
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has fundamentally changed our perception.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So when you look at this diagram,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the central circle on the right\Nprobably looks larger to you
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because your brain is drawn\Nto the relationship of the parts
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the whole,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whereas someone who hasn't been\Nexposed to modern work
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with its requirement for adaptable,\Nconceptual thought,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will see correctly that the central\Ncircles are the same size.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So here we are in the wicked work world,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and there, sometimes\Nhyperspecialization can backfire badly.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in research in a dozen countries
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that matched people for their parents'\Nyears of education,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,their test scores,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,their own years of education,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the difference was some got\Ncareer-focused education
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and some got broader, general education.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The pattern was those who got\Nthe career-focused education
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are more likely to be hired\Nright out of training,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more likely to make more money right away,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but so much less adaptable\Nin a changing work world,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they spend so much less time\Nin the workforce overall
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they win in the short term\Nand lose in the long run.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or consider a famous,\N20-year study of experts
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,making geopolitical\Nand economic predictions.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The worst forecasters were the most\Nspecialized experts.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those who'd spent their entire careers\Nstudying one or two problems
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and came to see the whole world\Nthrough one lens or mental model.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Some of them actually got worse\Nas they accumulated experience
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and credentials.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The best forecasters were simply\Nbright people with wide-ranging interests.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now in some domains,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like medicine,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,increasing specialization has been\Nboth inevitable and beneficial.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No question about it.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And yet it's been a double-edged sword.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A few years ago,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one of the most popular surgeries\Nin the world for knee pain
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was tested in a placebo-controlled trial.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Some of the patients got sham surgery.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That means the surgeons make an incision,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they bang around like\Nthey're doing something
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then they sew the patient back up.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That performed just as a well.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And yet surgeons who specialize\Nin the procedure continue to do it
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by the millions.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if hyperspecialization isn't always\Nthe trick in a wicked world, what is?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That can be difficult to talk about
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it doesn't\Nalways look like this path.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Sometimes it looks like\Nmeandering or zig-zagging
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or keeping a broader view.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It can look like getting behind.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I want to talk about what\Nsome of those tricks might be.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we look at research\Non technological innovation,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it shows that increasingly,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the most impactful patents\Nare not authored by individuals
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who drill deeper, deeper, deeper\Ninto one area of technology,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as classified by the US Patent Office,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but rather by teams that include\Nindividuals who have worked across
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a large number of different\Ntechnology classes
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and often merge things\Nfrom different domains.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Someone whose work I've admired
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who was sort of\Non the forefront of this --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a Japanese man named Gunpei Yokoi.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yokoi didn't score well\Non his electronics exams at school,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so he had to settle for a low-tier job\Nas a machine maintenance worker
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at a playing card company in Kyoto.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He realized he wasn't equipped\Nto work on the cutting edge,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but there was so much\Ninformation easily available
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that maybe he could combine things\Nthat were already well-known
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in ways that specialists\Nwere too narrow to see.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So he combined some well-known technology\Nfrom the calculator industry
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with some well-known technology\Nfrom the credit card industry
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and made handheld games.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they were a hit.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it turned this playing card company,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which was founded in a wooden\Nstorefront in the 19th century,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into a toy and game operation.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You may have heard of it.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's called Nintendo.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yokoi's creative philosophy translated
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to "lateral thinking \Nwith withered technology."
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Taking well-known technology\Nand using it in new ways.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And his magnum opus was this:
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Game Boy.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Technological joke in every way.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it came out at the same time\Nas color competitors from Saga and Atari
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it blew them away.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because Yokoi knew what his\Ncustomers cared about wasn't color,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it was durability,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,portability,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,affordability,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,battery life,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,game selection.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is mine that I found\Nin my parents' basement.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Seen better days.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But you can see the red light is on.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I flipped it on and played some Tetris,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which I thought was especially impressive
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the batteries had expired\Nin 2007 and 2013.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this breadth advantage holds\Nin more subjective realms as well.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In a fascinating study of what leads\Nsome comic book creators
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be more likely to make\Nblockbuster comics,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a pair of researchers found
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it was neither the number of years\Nof experience in the field
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,nor the resources of the publisher,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,nor the number of previous comics made.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was the number of different genres\Nthat a creator had worked across.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And interestingly, a broad individual\Ncould not be entirely replaced
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by a team of specialists.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We probably don't make as many\Nof those people as we could
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because early on,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they just look like they're behind
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we don't tend to incentivize anything\Nthat doesn't look like a head start
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or specialization.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, I think in the well-meaning\Ndrive for a head start,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we often even counterproductively\Nshort circuit even the way we learn
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,new material at a fundamental level.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In a study last year,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,seventh-grade math classrooms in the US
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were randomly assigned\Nto different types of learning.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Some got what's called blocked practice.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's like, you get problem type A,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,AAAAA,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,BBBBB,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so on.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Progress is fast,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,kids are happy,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,everything's great.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Other classrooms got assigned\Nto what's called "Interleaved practice."
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's like if you took\Nall the problem types
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and put them in a hat
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and drew them out at random.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Progress is slower,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,kids are more frustrated.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But instead of learning\Nhow to execute procedures,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they're learning how to match\Na strategy to a type of problem.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And when the test comes around,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the interleaved group blew\Nthe block practice group away.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It wasn't even close.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now I found a lot of this research\Ndeeply counterintuitive.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They idea that a headstart,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether in picking a career\Nor a course of study
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of just in learning new material,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can sometimes undermine\Nlong-term development.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And naturally, I think there are as many\Nways to succeed as there are people,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but I think we tend only to incentivize\Nand encourage the tiger path
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when increasingly in a wicked world,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we need people who travel\Nthe Roger path as well.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or as the eminent physicist\Nand mathematician
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and wonderful writer,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Freeman Dyson put it --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and Dyson passed away yesterday,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so I hope I'm doing\Nhis words honor here --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as he said,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"For a healthy ecosystem,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we need both birds and frogs.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Frogs are down in the mud,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,see all the granular details.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The birds are soaring up above\Nnot seeing those details,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but integrating\Nthe knowledge of the frogs."
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we need both.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The problem, Dyson said,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that "we're telling everyone\Nto become frogs"
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I think,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in a wicked world\Nthat's increasingly short-sighted.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you very much.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)